Friday, October 14, 2011

Week 6 Picks!

The NFL hits the sixth week of the 2011 season. As Mike Francesa would say, "No season goes quicker than the NFL." Before we pick Week 6, there are three ways to look at making picks in the NFL on a week to week basis. The three things to keep in mind when picking games in the NFL are the following:
1) Last week doesn't always matter- If Team A wins convincingly over Team B, then that does not mean that Team A will blow out their next opponent. Yes, I know there are good teams that can always put together a string of blowout victories (Think Green Bay, New England, and Peyton Manning's Colts), but the NFL is simply a week to week league. Just because your team drops 38 points one week doesn't mean it is going to automatically do that next week. Don't be surprised when they struggle to reach 20 because that is just the way it is.

2) Homefield advantage is overrated- Back in the day teams seemed to thrive on being the home team. Since the advent of the salary cap, teams are just not as dominant at home as they once were. There aren't many truly dominant teams in the league anymore, so homefield is really balanced out. Also, the fact that so many teams have built new stadiums since the mid-90s has really changed the homefield landscape. Outside of Seattle, no new stadium really helps the team out on the playing field. The fans are farther away from the field, the actual stadiums are bigger and look like spaceships, and there are about 100 bars or lounges in these stadiums that distract the average fan from the game. It just isn't the same, but people who pick games still consider homefield as an huge advantage for the home squad. The truth is that it really isn't like that anymore.

3) Last year was last year and reputations don't always translate from year to year- There are some exceptions to this philosophy. If you have a great, elite quarterback then your team's passing game and offense will always be potent or dangerous. That only affects a handful of teams. Also, the Ravens and their defense comes to mind because they have had a great defense for like 10 years. When you have Ray Lewis in the middle and Ed Reed in the secondary, then your defense is going to be really good year after year. Those examples are the exceptions. The NFL is year to year. Just because you had a really good running game for a few years (The Jets) that doesn't mean that automatically your running game is still going to be off the charts. It doesn't work that way in the NFL. Players get older, other teams adjust, and your own team's personnel changes. People still bank on teams playing a certain way, but year to year aspects of your team progress or regress for a multitude of reasons and everyone fails to realize it until the season is over.

Now that we got that out of the way, here are the picks for Week 6......

Last Week's Record: 6-6-1
Overall Record: 34-38-5
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

GREEN BAY (-14) over St. Louis: The Packers look pretty freakin' unstoppable right now. Can the Packers make it to Thanksgiving Day against the Lions undefeated? Here is their schedule after they wax the Rams at home: at Minnesota, BYE, at SD, home vs. Minnesota, home vs. Tampa Bay. They can definitely pull it off. The Chargers will be tough on the road and Tampa could be tricky, but there is a really good chance they could be 10-0 heading into Detroit. This week they take of business and bury the Rams at Lambeau.

PITTSBURGH (-12) over Jacksonville: Blaine Gabbert gets roughed up by the Steelers defense in this one. The Jags are going to be playing out the string very shortly for a lame duck coach in Jack Del Rio. Everyone buried the Steelers a little too early. Don't ever doubt Mike Tomlin and the Steelers. They are just getting started. The Stillers win big at home.

WASHINGTON (+2) over Philadelphia: This is the game of the day for me. This game is essentially a playoff game for the Eagles. Everyone is picking the Eagles in the classic "Backs against the Wall" game, but I am going to go against the grain. The Redskins are good, and Rex Grossman can lead this team to the playoffs. This game just seems like one of those games were Mike Shanahan has that look in his eye. Every play call works, and he is just on call on every move he makes in the game. I've seen that look before and it is deadly. The Skins take down the Eagles and put Andy Reid firmly on the hot seat.

DETROIT (-4) over San Francisco: Can the Lions make it to Thanksgiving against the Packers undefeated? Here is their schedule after this week: home vs. Atlanta, at Denver, Bye, at Chicago, home vs. Carolina. There looks like too many pitfalls in there for them, but that Thanksgiving Day game at home versus the Packers will be electric. Expect the Lions to win this week at home to go 6-0 over the upstart 49ers.

Carolina (+4) over ATLANTA: Cam Newton and the Panthers cover. Plain and simple that's it. The Falcons look lost at 2-3, and last week's home loss to the Packers after getting an early lead was a killer. The Panthers might lose late, but they keep it close.

CINCY (-7) over Indy: What a game this should be. The Bengals are sitting at 3-2 with a legitimate chance to go 4-2. The Colts are done. They had their chances last week and blew a big lead at home to the hapless Chiefs. Now, they have to go on the road against Andy Dalton and the suddenly feisty Bengals. I don't think this one is going to go their way. The 2011 Bengals remind me of the 2010 Buccaneers. Cincy gets to 4-2 convincingly.

Buffalo (+3) over NY GIANTS: The Bills are a legitimate playoff contender. I know their defense is suspect in defending the pass, but I am buying the Bills this year. They might not make the playoffs, but I could see them being a surprise 9-7 team and right on the fringe. Plus, it will reinvigorate the fanbase and make it feels like a playoff year. The Giants are a team to stay away from betting wise. You never know what you are going to get week to week. I'm staying away from them this week too. Bills win it on a field goal 22-20.

BALTIMORE (-7) over Houston: Andre Johnson and Mario Williams are both out for the Texans. I was contemplating taking Houston for the cheap backdoor cover, but I decided to take the Ravens at home. It looks like the Ravens are going to be in this thing for the long haul. I was wrong about the Ravens this year. They are looking like the real deal and a two seed in the AFC.

OAKLAND (-6) over Cleveland: The Raiders got an emotional win after the death of Al Davis last week. I respect Al Davis' place in the annals of pro football, but to me he was the villain and the antagonist of the Broncos and the NFL. Also, Hue Jackson's emotional breakdown after the win over Houston was a bit much. I really couldn't take too much of Jackson's sobbing and crying on the sideline or in the locker room. I'm sorry but Jackson has only been the Raiders head coach for five games! He was the offensive coordinator for last season. It is not like he is John Madden or Tom Flores. He shouldn't even have been the head coach this season after Tom Cable led them to an 8-8 record. Give me a break Hue! Anyway, the Browns get exposed in the Black Hole this Sunday as the Raiders get to 4-2.

Dallas (+7) over NEW ENGLAND: This is just one of those "Hunch Games." I think the Pats will win, but look for this one to be closer than people expect. I think the Cowboys give a great a effort and make this game close in what will be one of the highest rated games of the year.

TAMPA BAY (+5) over New Orleans: The Buccaneers take a stand at home, and turn back the Saints. Look for Josh Freeman to step up and get out of his funk, and pull the upset at home against the Saints. The Saints are going to win the NFC South, but they will stub their toe here.

CHICAGO (-3) over Minnesota: The Vikings stink. It is a matter of time before Donovan McNabb gets yanked. The Bears and especially Jay Cutler played gutty on Monday Night in the loss at Detroit. They do enough to get the win at home on Sunday Night.

NY JETS (-7) over Miami: The Jets are reeling after losing three in a row. Isn't it amazing how quiet the Jet fan is right now? It is very quiet as the Jets got their tails whipped the last three weeks. It is pretty obvious the Jets are not the same team they were the last two years. They say they want to get back to ground and pound, but they simply don't have the makeup on the offensive line to really do that anymore. Their defense is weak in the front seven, and they never addressed their pass rush, so did they not realize they were going to have problems on the defensive side. Throw in a little mutiny with the receivers and offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer and you have a nice, big shit show. With all that said, look for the Jets to waffle the Dolphins at home on Monday Night. The Fish are a bigger mess with Matt Moore at quarterback, Brandon Marshall wanting to fight people in the middle of the game, and a lame-duck coach.






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