Week 11 Picks

The marquee game of the season is upon us as the 9-0 Kansas City Chiefs head into Denver to take on the Broncos. It is a great matchup of two division rivals with great records so late in the year. The rivalry between these two teams dates back all the way to the original AFL Western Division days. People nationally don't realize how good of a rivalry this is. It is underrated because both teams haven't been a contender in the same season together in a long time. As a Broncos fan my whole life, I really despised the Chiefs more than the Raiders. The reason why is because the Chiefs were always more of a threat to Denver's AFC West hopes than the Raiders were for the majority of the John Elway era. How good is this rivalry? Well, think about this: In 1994, NFL Films released a VHS tape called "John Elway's Greatest Comebacks." It was a great montage of some of Elway's greatest moments in the fourth quarter. The team that was victimized the most by Elway and all those comebacks: The Chiefs. The most improbable of Elway's comebacks was in 1992. The Broncos were down 19-6 with just over two minutes left in the game at the old Mile High. Elway threw two touchdowns passes in the final two minutes to shock the Chiefs 20-19. Later that year, the Broncos were 8-7 and facing the Chiefs in a winner take all AFC West showdown in the last game of the year at Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs blitzed Denver and won the division. Denver missed the playoffs as a result and fired head coach Dan Reeves shortly after. That is usually how it goes with this rivalry. The Broncos win in Denver, and the Chiefs win in Arrowhead. One team wins the first game, and the other team gets revenge in the rematch. In 1997, Denver opened the season at home with a 19-3 win over the Chiefs. The two teams met in Week 11 with the Broncos at 9-1 and the Chiefs at 7-3. The Chiefs won on a Pete Stoyanovich 54 yard field goal at the buzzer to win the game 24-22. That game propelled the Chiefs to the AFC West crown, and the Broncos settled for the wild card. In the Divisional playoffs that year, the two teams met again. Denver won a tough, grind-it-out type of game 14-10 and it propelled Denver to their first Super Bowl title. In 2003, both teams were 4-0 when they met in Week 5. It was the game of the year at that point in the season. Denver led the Chiefs 23-17 when Dante Hall took a punt 93 yards on the 4th quarter for a touchdown as KC won 24-23. I can still see the three block in the backs that weren't called on Hall's return by the way. Naturally, Denver got revenge later in the year with the help of Clinton Portis' five rushing touchdowns en route to a 45-27 win in Denver. This rivalry hasn't really seen a big-time game like that since that year. In 2011, the Broncos and Tim Tebow shocked the Chiefs 17-7 in Arrowhead in a game where Tim Tebow completed on 2 passes. The Chiefs got revenge in Week 17 when Kyle Orton returned to Denver to help them knock off the Broncos. This game will be fun to watch, and it does lose a little because they play in Arrowhead in two weeks, but it is nice to have the Chiefs and Broncos battle it out once again with the AFC West on the line in one of the biggest games on the NFL calendar. I'll save my pick for later in the column. Onto the rest of the picks for Week 11....

Last Week's Record: 6-7-1
Overall Record: 76-66-7
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

Atlanta (PICK) over TAMPA BAY: The Falcons have to win a game again at some point right?

NY JETS (-1) over Buffalo: The Bills are all banged up on offense, and the Jets have that "6th Seed" look to them right now. Take the Jets and the low number on the road.

Detroit (-2) over PITTSBURGH: The Steelers are done for 2013, and now you have rumors of Big Ben leaving town after the season. The Lions are the better team, so I'll stick with them once again.

Washington (+5) over PHILLY: The Eagles really stink at home. They haven't won a home game since early last season. Until they prove otherwise, I'll go against them again at home.

San Diego (-1) over MIAMI: The Dolphins season got destroyed by the whole Martin-Incognito saga. At 4-5, they are reeling and come off a loss to the Bucs on Monday night. The Chargers are the better team, and I look for them to take care of business on the road this week.

Baltimore (+4) over CHICAGO:  I don't like what I see out of the Bears right now. Jay Cutler is out, and I know that Josh McCown has played well in his absence, but he still is Josh McCown. I like the Ravens in this spot as an underdog.

CINCY (-6) over Cleveland: I would be shocked if the Bengals lose this game. I am not buying into the 4-5 Browns making a playoff run at all. Take the Bengals at home.

HOUSTON (-7) over Oakland: The Raiders have to travel two weeks in a row to another time zone, and Terrelle Pryor might be out. The Texans are in disarray, but I think they break their 7 game losing streak this week at home.

Arizona (-7) over JACKSONVILLE: The Jags finally got a win last week over the Titans, but here come the Cards. Quietly, the Cards are 5-4 and are playing good football. They could be in play for the 6 seed in the NFC. I'm sticking with them again this week.

Minnesota (+13) over SEATTLE: The Seahawks will win this game, but I think the Vikings keep it close. Can the Vikings just admit that Christian Ponder isn't that bad and gives them the best chance to win? Give the kid a break. Seattle hasn't really played that great lately either.

NEW ORLEANS (-3) over San Francisco: The Niners passing game looked pretty awful last week. I think the 49ers will be okay and make the playoffs, but this week is a tough spot for them. We know how good the Saints are at home, and I think they continue to make their claim as the frontrunner in the NFC.

Green Bay (+5) over NY GIANTS: The G-men are just not that good. Even at home with the Packers coming in without Aaron Rodgers, I just can't trust the Giants. Don't be surprised if Green Bay wins the game outright.

CAROLINA (-2) over New England: We finally get a really good Monday night game. Fascinating matchup, and you have to love how well the Panthers on playing on defense. This is the biggest game in Carolina since the 2008 season when they won the NFC South. Take the Panthers and that defense at home in front of a raucous crowd.

Kansas City at Denver: We all know the key to this game. Can the stout KC defense shut down the Broncos offense and a gimpy Peyton Manning? We know how the Chiefs can rush the passer and how much Denver has had trouble protecting Manning lately, but don't you think the Broncos spent all week looking at that too. Don't you think Denver and Manning will have something up their sleeve? A lot of people are picking the Chiefs to keep it close or win it outright, but you know what? Fuck that! I'm going with the "Sheriff" and the Broncos at home on Sunday Night Football to make a statement. I'm taking the Broncos and not looking back.

DENVER (-7) over Kansas City

Final Score: Denver-30 KC-17