NFL Week 13 Picks

There is nothing better than putting up your Christmas lights, cranking up the fireplace, and watching big, late-season games in the NFL. It is also an extra treat if your team is fighting not only for a playoff spot but for seeding and home playoff games. As a Broncos fan, it was something that you were accustomed to with the John Elway Era Broncos. It hasn't been that way since Elway retired. Yes, the Mike Shanahan Era provided plenty of years where the Broncos were fighting for a playoff spot, but nothing has been compared to this year with the Peyton Manning-led Broncos. In the Elway years, the Broncos were positioning themselves for home-field advantage and playoff seeding. That is what this year feels like. The Broncos are 8-3, lead the AFC West, and are riding a six-game winning streak. They can actually clinch the AFC West with a win this week at home against Tampa Bay, and there are still games left to play that will enable them to gain a valuable playoff seed. We know that nothing is guaranteed for the Broncos at this point, but just to have this opportunity at this point in the season is special. Throw in the holidays as a backdrop, and you get to have some fun the next month with the Broncos. It is a fun time of the year, and having your team fighting for a playoff berth makes it so much better. Onto the picks for Week 13....

Last Week's Record: 7-8-1
Overall Record: 77-89-8
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

Seattle (+4) over CHICAGO: The Seahawks really suck on the road, and we know that is a big problem for them, but they are due for a big road win. They got screwed last week with a really bad roughing the passer call last week against Miami with a 14-7 lead and a turnover in the endzone. This week they travel to Chicago, and no one expects them to win this tough matchup. I love the matchup with the Seattle defense against that porous Bears offensive line. I think the Seahawks find a way to win this game, and it starts with their defense.

GREEN BAY (-7) over Minnesota: I know the Packers looked bad on Sunday night in their loss agains the Giants, but they will take care of business at home against the Vikings. At 6-5, the Vikings are dangerous, but I don't like what I see from Christian Ponder. Take the Packers to get back on track with a big home win.

San Francisco (-6) over ST.LOUIS: Give Jim Harbaugh credit for going with Colin Kaepernick and putting Alex Smith back on the bench. I expect Kaepernick to have a rough game one of these weeks, but the Niners have too much for the Rams this week, and Kaepernick keeps the run going.

NY JETS (-4) over Arizona: The Jets were utterly disgraceful against the Pats on Thanksgiving night, but they get a gift this week with the Cardinals coming to town. The Jets will overwhelm the Cards and their putrid offense at home this week. If the Jets lose, then heads might roll, but they will win easily.

KANSAS CITY (+4) over Carolina: The Chiefs played hard in their loss to Denver last week, and I think they will find a way to win their second game of the season this week. Kansas City is due for win at Arrowhead, and I think they get it this week.

DETROIT (-4) over Indy: The Lions are a mess, and they blew so many chances to beat the Texans on Thanksgiving. I'm nervous about this game because I can see the Colts winning this game by a touchdown, but the Lions will find a way to exploit the Colts secondary with Calvin Johnson. It is a tough game to call, but take the Lions at home.

BUFFALO (-5) over Jacksonville: Chad Henne has proven how bad Blaine Gabbert actually was for the Jags. They have been competitive since Henne took over for Gabbert. The Bills lost another tough game last week at Indy, and they have disappointed me a lot this year. They will do enough to win this game by at least a touchdown this week.

MIAMI (+9) over New England: The Patriots look like the best team in the AFC, but this game could be tricky. History has shown that home underdogs getting a lot of points is a safe bet, and I'll take the Dolphins to keep this game closer than people think.

Houston (-6) over TENNESSEE: The Texans will definitely get the #1 seed in the AFC. A win here over the Titans will help them get there, and I just can't see the Titans covering in this spot.

Pittsburgh (+8) over BALTIMORE: Big Ben is out, and the Ravens will most likely win this game, but Baltimore just doesn't blow people out. Everyone expects a big Ravens win over the Steelers this week, but I'll take the points and bet that Pittsburgh will keep it close.

Cleveland (PICK) over Oakland: The Raiders have fallen apart-especially on defense. The Browns have at least been feisty at times this year, and I think they will win this game on the road. The Raiders needed this year just to evaluate and find a way to rebuild this franchise from the ground up. Take the Browns to win it.

SAN DIEGO (+3) over Cincy: Why do I keep picking the Chargers? They have failed miserably this year, and Norv Turner is on his way out.  For some reason, I am going to take San Diego to upset the surging Bengals. I know that Cincy is playing well, but look for a letdown from them this week out on the West Coast.

DALLAS (-9) over Philly: The Cowboys have been very disappointing this year, and their track record as a home favorite is pretty ugly. At 5-6, they are still in the wildcard mix in the NFC, and they are bound to cover one of these games at home as a heavy favorite.

WASHINGTON (+3) over New York Giants: I love this matchup. RG III is one of the most exciting players to watch in the league right now, and the last time these two teams played it was a thriller that the Giants won in New Jersey. This should be a fun one to watch, and I'll take the Skins to pull it out late and get themselves to 6-6.

Tampa Bay (+7) over DENVER: It is not easy to win two games in a row in the NFL, and the Broncos are currently riding a six game winning streak. At some point, a team is bound to have a stinker. Now, the surprising Bucs come to town at 6-5. Josh Freeman is a really talented quarterback, and Vincent Jackson scares the heck out of me. Throw in the Doug Martin factor, and the Bucs can move the ball on offense. This is a tough game for the Broncos, and I see it being a close one throughout. I can see the Bucs pulling this one out late.

Final Score: Tampa Bay-28 Denver-24