Week 11 Picks

We are heading into Week 11 of the NFL season, and Thanksgiving is upon us in less than a week. Usually, at this time of the year in the NFL, the fans and the media are talking about how the season has been such a topsy-turvy year. We are usually talking about teams that were completely dismissed before the season are now making real runs at the playoffs or a division title. Conversely, we are discussing how some big name teams are really disappointing and how no one saw that decline coming. This year is different. The 2012 season-for the most part-has held serve if you will. Things have transpired basically how many people thought they would. Let's start with the AFC. New England, Baltimore, Houston, and Denver are all leading their divisions. Pittsburgh is entrenched as a wild card too. Those five teams were all generally considered to be playoff teams out of the AFC this year. Those five all made the playoffs last year, so there really is no surprises in the AFC. The only surprise so far is that the Colts are 6-3 in the first year of the Andrew Luck Era. It isn't a surprise to me because I had the Colts being very competitive this year, but just missing out on the playoffs. Other than the Colts, what has taken place hasn't really surprised anyone. The Jets are struggling with Mark Sanchez and their offense. The Tim Tebow move has been a distraction. The Dolphins are going through growing pains with Ryan Tannehill. The Bengals are a decent team, but they can't get by the Ravens or the Steelers. The Jaguars and Browns stink. The Chargers are underachieving, and Norv Turner is on the hotseat. The Raiders, Titans, and Bills are mediocre. The Chiefs suck really bad. Outside of a few people that picked the Bills and the Chiefs to make the playoffs, nothing has really stood out as Earth shattering.

When you look at the NFC, the same results seem to apply. The Giants, Falcons, Bears, and Niners lead their respective divisions. Everyone seemed to love those four teams going into 2012. The Packers are a wild card team right now, and everyone had the Packers as a Super Bowl favorite coming out of the NFC. Seattle has a good defense and are very tough at home. The Cowboys are up and down every week. The Skins are going through some tough times, but Robert Griffin III gives them hope for next year. The Saints struggled at the start of the season due to the ramifications of the bounty scandal. The Rams are building something with Jeff Fisher, but they are at least a year away. The Cardinals have no quarterback and no offensive line. The Lions are taking a step back. The Eagles are all over the place, and Andy Reid and Michael Vick appear on the way out. Cam Newton is having a sophomore slump after his spectacular rookie year. The only real surprises are the Bucs and the Vikings. A lot of people felt that Tampa Bay would be improved after their dismal 4-12 season in 2011, so the fact that they are 5-4 under Greg Schiano is certainly not shocking. I guess the Vikings at 6-4 might be the only really big surprise in the NFC, but no one is really counting on Minnesota to win 10 games and make the playoffs.

When you look at the league right now, nine playoff teams from last year are on target to make the playoffs again this year. That is way over the usual projection of only six teams returning to the playoffs the next year. The one thing you can usually count on in the NFL is not knowing what was going to happen from one season to the next. This year has really played out the way that many people have predicted-which is really strange. What will happen from here on out? It is hard to see a lot of crazy things happening at this point. Although everything seems to be playing out the way many of us had predicted, I still think the NFL season will get crazy after Thanksgiving. It almost has to. Injuries, wild upsets, and some crazy finishes are still lurking out there, and those types of situations can really create chaos in this non-chaotic year. It might have taken a little longer to get there this year, but don't be too surprised when it happens. Onto the picks for Week 11........

Last Week's Record: 5-9
Overall Record: 64-76-5
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

WASHINGTON (-3) over Philly: Before the season started, I spent the whole Summer debating what was going to happen to the Eagles. For a long time, I had the Eagles bottoming out, and Andy Reid finally losing his job; however, I went the other way and picked the Eagles to make the playoffs. The Eagles are 3-6, and it looks like this team is going down the tubes. They haven't played well all year, and I don't see that continuing this week with backup QB Nick Foles replacing the "injured" Michael Vick. Also, the Redskins have been really bad at home under Mike Shanahan. They are due for a big home win.

Green Bay (-3) over DETROIT: The Packers are going on the road, and they are banged up, but this Packers team seems to be hitting their stride. The Lions are just not the same team they were in 2011, and Green Bay will get to 7-3 with a tough road win against a divisional opponent.

Arizona (+10) over ATLANTA: The Falcons are now 8-1 after their close loss at New Orleans last week, and I think they will win this game at home, but this has a chance to be a lot closer than the spread might indicate. Nothing has gone right for the Cardinals since their 4-0 start, but the Falcons haven't blown out too many teams at home this year. This game feels like a 26-20 win for Atlanta.

Tampa Bay (-1) over CAROLINA: After watching the Panthers last week against Denver, I realized that the Panthers have no clue what to do on offense. They have Cam Newton, DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, Steve Smith, and Greg Olson, and they can't move the ball a lick. How are the Bucs only laying a point on the road to this team? The Bucs continue their winning ways with a convincing win this week.

DALLAS (-7) over Cleveland: I know that this is usually a spot where the Cowboys won't play well, fail to cover, and barely win, but I think the Cowboys buck the trend this week. That win over Philly last week saved their season, and they smell the blood in the water. Look for them to take of business at home against the hapless Browns.

ST.LOUIS (-3) over New York Jets: The last thing the Jets needed was an article to come out that featured a dozen players ripping Tim Tebow. We know the Jets are struggling at 3-6, but they certainly didn't need anymore distractions like that one heading into a must-win game for them. This game will go back and forth, but I like the Rams at home in this one. I was inspired by what I saw out of them last week in their tie with the Niners.

NEW ENGLAND (-9) over Indy: I thought the Pats were going to get a blowout win over the Bills last week, but they barely survived at the end and hung on to win 37-31. I think they are still due for a big blowout win at home, and they really haven't had one all year. A lot of people are picking the Colts to cover, and this game will be close throughout, but I think the Pats put it away early the fourth quarter and cruise to an easy victory by at least two touchdowns.

Jacksonville (+15) over HOUSTON: The Texans will win this game, but I am done picking teams to cover huge spreads this year. Houston can win this game in their sleep, and I foresee a rather ho-hum win for the Texans to the tune of something like 20-6.

KANSAS CITY (+4) over Cincy: The Chiefs haven't won at Arrowhead all year long. In fact, they haven't been very competitive at home with the exception of the game against the Ravens. They are due for a home win. Cincy buried the Giants last week, but you can never fully trust the Bengals.

OAKLAND (+5) over New Orleans: The Saints have done a nice job digging themselves out of their 0-4 hole to start the season. At 4-5, the Saints got an emotional win over the Falcons at home last week, and a lot of people are starting to jump on their bandwagon as a late-season threat. I think this is a classic letdown game for the Saints. They have to travel all the way across the country against an unfamiliar opponent. Take the Raiders and the points in the Black Hole.

PITTSBURGH (+3) over Baltimore: I might be kicking myself for taking the Steelers with Big Ben out  due to injury. Can you really take Byron Leftwitch against the Ravens? Yes you can and here is why: Are the Ravens really as good as their 7-2 record indicates? I don't think so, and they really haven't beaten anyone decent this year. The Steelers are the only team in the league that seems to lose marquee players and somehow continue to win games. I'm taking the Steelers on hunch this week and look for them to somehow pull this one out at home.

Chicago (+6) over SAN FRANCISCO: Jay Cutler is out with a concussion, so enter Jason Campbell. We all know how the Bears melted down the stretch last year when Cutler went down, but Campbell is a much better option than Caleb Hanie or Josh McCown. The Niners are 6-2-1, but they also seem to have lost a little of their early season luster. It is uncertain if Alex Smith will start for SF as a result of his own concussion suffered last week, but the Bears defense will rise up and put this game on their shoulders no matter who starts for the 49ers.

San Diego (+7) over DENVER:
At 6-3, the Broncos are playing really well right now. Peyton Manning is on fire, and if the Broncos win this game at home, then they will take a commanding three game lead in the AFC West by sweeping the Chargers in the process. Can they really a stranglehold on this division this early in the season? Don't you get the feeling that the Chargers will make one more solid run at Denver for the division crown. At 4-5, the Chargers desperately need this game. In the NFL, you usually side with the team that is more desperate. The Broncos are a really good team, but they still make too many mistakes. They were able to get away with those mistakes the last two weeks with victories over inferior teams, but I don't see that happening just yet. Plus, aren't we due for a Peyton Manning clunker performance? I can see Manning having a tough day, losing to the Chargers at home, spending the entire week having to answer questions about his arm strength and health, and then going on a six game stretch in which he completely tears up the rest of the league once again.

Final Score: Chargers-28 Denver-24