Week 9 Picks

The first weekend in November is usually a special one. The NFL season begins to hit full swing, the games get bigger, the weather is perfect, and everything just feels right. This year is a completely different story. As a resident of Long Island, we are in the midst of recovering from Hurricane Sandy. Sandy has destroyed the Tri-State area, leaving many in its path without power, housing, food and gas. It is like a movie down in this area. It feels like a war zone. The last time it felt this surreal was the few days after September 11th. Instead of getting ready for a big-time football weekend, people are trying to pick up the pieces to their lives. It is a really sad scene around the Northeast. Those images you saw of Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans are carbon copies of what we see in the great Manhattan area, the surrounding boroughs, and along the Jersey Shore. Perhaps this week's games will serve as a distraction in the wake of this disaster, but it will be hard for many to see the games because so many people are without power. I am one of the lucky ones who have power, but watching the games on Sunday won't be the same. It won't feel like a football Sunday. Hopefully, for a few hours though it will somehow feel like one of those classic November Sundays that we are accustomed to. Anything to make us smile and bring us back to some sort of normalcy will help at this point. Onto the games for Week 9....

Last Week's Record: 5-9
Overall Record: 51-61-5
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

Arizona (+10) over GREEN BAY: The Packers failed to cover a big spread last week at home to the Jags, so the logic is that they will get it done this week at home to the fading Cardinals. I'm going against that trend. Yes, the Packers will win, but this game feels a lot closer than the 10 points that are out there. Look for a late back door cover by the Cardinals.

Miami (-2) over INDY: Two surprising teams at 4-3 meeting in a big game in the AFC. This is definitely a fun game to keep an eye on. The winner of this game goes to 5-3 and has a clear path to the playoffs as a wild card. I'll take the Dolphins and their defense to outlast the Colts and Andrew Luck.

Baltimore (-3) over CLEVELAND: I understand that these two teams played a really competitive game  in their prior meeting over a month ago. I know that the Browns had the Ravens on their heels in the fourth quarter of that game, but I just can't trust the Browns. How could you? Be safe and smart and take the Ravens on the road.

HOUSTON (-10) over Buffalo: I have given the Bills a lot of chances to redeem themselves this year and they keep on disappointing me. This is a tough game for them to win. Ryan Fitzpatrick on the road is the number one reason you should be backing the Texans. The second reason is this: Ryan Fitzpatrick on the road against J.J. Watt and that Texans defense. This game will be close in the fourth quarter, but look for a late Fitzpatrick turnover to seal it for Houston.

Carolina (+3) over WASHINGTON: I don't know why, but I'm taking the Panthers one last time on the road. I know they are done in the NFC South, and my prediction of a division championship is out the window, but are they really a 1-6 team? I'll give them a chance this week on the road in a game where no one thinks they will win.

JACKSONVILLE(+5) over Detroit: The Lions have won three games all by close margins and late in the game. They haven't played like their 2011 version at all this year. Calvin Johnson isn't producing Megatron-type numbers, and now there is a chance he won't play this week. All this adds up to this score flashing across the bottom line during the early games: Jacksonville-17 Detroit-14: Matt Stafford- 4 turnovers. Take the Jags getting points at home.

TENNESSEE (+4) over Chicago: I know the Bears are 6-1, but Jay Cutler still hasn't played that well this year. The story with the Bears is the same: Their defense is their strength. This week they face a tricky test on the road with the Titans. Tennessee lost a tough one in overtime to the Colts last week, and now the Titans try to dig out of the 3-5 hole. They start by pulling off the upset at home. Upset of the week: Titans-22 Bears-20.

SEATTLE (-4) over Minnesota: At first glance this one seems like a no-brainer. Take the Seahawks at home laying only four points. When you dig deeper, you start to build a case for the Vikings. They have had 10 days to get ready for this one after the stinker they played against Tampa Bay on a Thursday night at home. Adrian Peterson looks better than ever. Christian Ponder is ready for a bounce back game. Percy Harvin will continue to baffle defenses. With all that said, look for the Seahawks to take care of business. It won't be easy, but they will get the job done and get to 5-4.

Tampa Bay (+2) over OAKLAND: Look who snuck through the back door in the AFC playoff picture: The Oakland Raiders. This is a must win game for the Raiders if they have any hopes of making a legitimate run to the playoffs this year. They can get to 4-4 with a win at home as a favorite. The problem is that the Bucs are also a feisty team and a sleeper to make a run at the playoffs in the NFC. Look for a close game, but watch out for a late Buccaneers rally, and Josh Freeman makes one or two big plays down the stretch to steal a victory in the Black Hole.

Pittsburgh (+3) over NY GIANTS: I have like the Steelers all week, and I am taking them on the road this week. First, I think Hurricane Sandy had to effect the Giants this week in some shape or form. Two, the Steelers aren't that good, but Big Ben is insanely good, and he is about to put the Steelers on his back for the rest of the season. Plus, the Giants just don't play great as favorites at home. The Steelers are 4-3, but they feel like they are a 2-5 team. They usually don't play great on the road this year, but this week their fortunes change. Take the Steelers and the points.

ATLANTA (-4) over Dallas: Everyone expects the Cowboys to come out on Sunday night and show the world how talented they are in handing the Falcons their first loss. I don't see it happening because right now the Cowboys are in a funk. I thought about taking Dallas in this spot, and I understand that they are desperate, but the Falcons are simply too much for them at this point in the season. Take the Falcons at home because you are only laying four points anyway.

Philly (+3) over NEW ORLEANS: The Saints had that look like they were packing it in for 2012 during their loss to the Broncos last Sunday night. I am going to give the Eagles one more shot. If they don't get it done this week, then I am officially kicking the dirt on their grave this year. This game is a matchup of two of the biggest disappointments of 2012. I'm taking the Eagles to pull off the upset on the road in a must-win for both teams.

CINCY (+4) over Denver: This line jumped from 2.5 earlier in the week. As a Broncos fan, this game scares me for a number of reasons. First, the Broncos never, ever play well on the road in the early game. They always seem to sleepwalk through these games no matter who they are playing. Secondly, the Bengals have a pretty good defense, and they arguably have the best playmaker on the field in A.J. Green. Third, everyone has been kissing the Broncos butts all week long. After pasting the Saints at home, people are already talking about how the Broncos are now in the elite class of the AFC. Thanks for all of the praise, but I don't think we are there just yet with this team. I mean we needed a comeback for the ages to beat the Chargers two weeks ago, and we just buried a 2-4 Saints team at home. It is not like the Broncos beat the 72 Dolphins and the 85 Bears in back-to-back weeks. Anyway, this game scares me because that is how the NFL works. Once everyone starts to praise your team, they then go out and drop a stinkbomb on the road to a 3-4 team.

Final Score: Bengals-24 Broncos-21