Broncos-Raiders Review and Week 14 Picks

Before we get to the Week 14 picks, let's dive into the Broncos win over the Raiders on Thursday night. Denver was able to leave Oakland with a 26-13 win and a 10-3 record. The Broncos jumped out to a 13-0 lead early, but the Raiders were able to fight back and make it a 13-7 game at the half. The second half belonged to the Broncos as they built on their lead and increased it to 26-7. I never felt that the Broncos were in any danger of losing this game, and it was a good, solid win on a short week against a divisional opponent. The Broncos offense moved the ball at will all night, and if it weren't for some redzone issues, the game would have been decided by a lot more points. Denver's defense was superb once again, and Von Miller got the key sack and turnover late in the third quarter to set up another Denver touchdown to put the game out of reach. Here are my quick thoughts and observations on the game....

1) The only thing that slowed down the Broncos offense was themselves. Peyton Manning had a big night through the air. He passed for over 310 yards and added a sweet touchdown toss to Joel Dreessen on the first drive of the game. The Raiders clamped down in the redzone, but Manning was on target most of the night with the exception coming on an interception deep in Raider territory. Overall, it was a good night for Manning and that Bronco offense.

2) Knowshon Moreno had over 119 yards on 32 carries on the night, and the added 48 yards receiving. He was able to run between the tackles very effectively, and it felt like he gained positive yardage everytime he touched the ball. His 1-yard touchdown run in the third quarter effectively put the game away. He really displayed some tough, hard running, and that is something that the Broncos desperately need.

3) Eric Decker got back into the mix this week. He finished with 8 catches for 88 yards, and he had some big time plays on 3rd down. His over the shoulder catch from Manning in the third quarter was a thing of beauty. It was nice to see him contribute more in this game than he has contributed in the past month.

4) Von Miller is my NFL Defensive Player of the Year. He comes up with a game-changing sack every week. This week was no different. With the Broncos up 16-7, and the Raiders pinned deep in their own end, Miller flew around the edge and sacked Carson Palmer, forced a fumble, and Denver pounced on it at the Raider one yard line. Denver scored a touchdown two plays later and that was the game. Forget about the number of sacks, he makes a big, game-altering play every single week. The guy is unreal.

5) Champ Bailey had another big turnover for the Broncos too. Down 10-0, the Raiders started to move the ball on the Denver defense. Deep in Denver territory, Carson Palmer looked for a deep seam to the endzone when Bailey read it, stepped in front, and picked it off on the run. It was a big drive killer, and it led to a Broncos field goal and a 13-0 lead.

6) Matt Prater needed a game to get out of his slump and this might have been the week. He kicked four field goals and gave the Broncos points every time their offense stalled. Hopefully, this is what he needed to get his confidence back.

7) Denver did not lose a fumble for the second straight game, but Trindon Holliday did fumble a punt that was recovered by Denver's Tony Carter. Holliday seems to be good for at least one fumble a game, but let's hope it doesn't happen in the playoffs. Why do I have a feeling Holliday might end up killing our season in January?

8) This Broncos defense doesn't get the national credit it deserves, but it is playing lights out. They seem to go on stretches where they completely shut down an opposing team's offense for a series of drives. Case in point: Denver is leading 13-7 at halftime, and the Raiders are starting with the ball. Denver's defense must make a stop, and they do. They force a punt and give the ball back to the Broncos offense. That it was I want out of a defense: Key stops at critical moments. The Broncos seem to do that a lot this year.

9) At 10-3, the Broncos are fighting for playoff seeding. With 10 days to rest, they head to Baltimore to take on the Ravens in a game that will have huge implications in the AFC Playoff picture.  The Broncos can rest up, get healthy, and get ready for a game that will feel and look like a playoff matchup.

10) This is the best Broncos season up to this point since 1998. 2005 was special but we all knew that the Jake Plummer-led Broncos were overachieving all year. Last year, was all about Tebowmania, and that was a fantastic ride, but everyone knew the Broncos weren't going to the Super Bowl. This could actually be the year. At some point I want to put this season into a historical perspective, but I want to wait because there are still three games left to play. Let's put it this way: I pinch myself every week that Peyton Manning is the Broncos QB. This season has been an absolute blessing as a Broncos fan.


Onto the picks for Week 14....

Last Week's Record: 10-6
Overall Record: 87-95-8
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

WASHINGTON (-2) over Baltimore: The Skins are back in the playoff hunt at 6-6, and the 9-3 Ravens come to town. If you look at the Ravens all year, they haven't looked impressive except for two wins (home against Cincy in Week 1 and home against the hapless Raiders). They needed a 4th and 29 gift to beat San Diego a few weeks ago. On the road, the Ravens and Joe Flacco really struggle on the road. I think the Redskins are hot, and RG III has his game going. I think the Skins win this game late.

CLEVELAND (-6) over Kansas City: The Browns have been really competitive all year long. If they end up firing Pat Shurmur, the new head coach will have something to work with. You have to love Trent Richardson and what he is doing as a rookie. They will take care of business and beat the Chiefs handily on Sunday to get to 5-8.

PITTSBURGH (-7) over San Diego: The Chargers are playing out the string at 4-8. Norv Turner is on his way out, and it could be rebuilding time in San Diego. The Steelers get Big Ben back this week and that will prove to be a major difference. Pittsburgh's defense is starting to get healthy and they are starting to play vintage Steeler defense. The Steelers get to 8-5 with a convincing win at home.

Tennessee (+6) over INDY: I know I have picked the Titans a lot this year and have gotten burned, but the Colts are due for a letdown week. After last week's amazing comeback win over the Lions, the Colts will struggle this week unexpectedly. These two teams played in a overtime thriller earlier in the year, but I'll take the Titans to keep it close on the road.

New York Jets (-3) over JACKSONVILLE: Mark Sanchez got benched last week, and Greg McElroy led the comeback over the Cardinals. Rex Ryan decides to go back to Sanchez this week against the hapless Jaguars. I would love to see a Jacksonville upset here, but I just can't expect it to happen. The Jets will win this game on the road and become the worst 6-7 team in NFL history.

Chicago (-3) over MINNESOTA: I don't trust Christian Ponder. Without Percy Harvin, Ponder is lost and everything falls on Adrian Peterson. The Bears are reeling, but they will find a way to win this one late. This looks like a 24-17 win for the Bears on a late Jay Cutler to Brandon Marshall hookup.

CAROLINA (+4) over Atlanta: The upset of the week goes to the Panthers. Are you really scared of the 11-1 Falcons? No one is afraid of them, and Carolina pulls off the shocker at home on the heels of a  video game performance by Cam Newton.

TAMPA BAY (-7) over Philly: Who cares about the Eagles because they are awful. Tampa Bay wins easily at home and they will improve to 7-6 and set themselves up for a wild card run the last three weeks.

St. Louis (+3) over BUFFALO: The Bills were on of my wildcard picks in the AFC this year, but I don't see them running the table and getting in at 9-7. They need to address the QB position in the offseason. The Rams are playing hard, and at 5-6-1, they are actually in the hunt for a wildcard. They won't get there this season, but they will win a critical road game this week in Buffalo.

Dallas (+3) over CINCY: The Cowboys are still alive at 6-6. The Bengals are in the middle of the playoff fight at 7-5. This is a huge game for both teams and it should be a good one. I'll go with the Cowboys on the road because that is where they are the most dangerous. The Bengals are the better team, but look for Dallas to find a way to win this game. This feels like a 26-23 game either way.

Miami (+10) over SAN FRANCISCO: A rematch of Super Bowl XIX, but instead of Joe Montana and Dan Marino, we have Colin Kaerpernick and Ryan Tannehill. I don't like the 49ers this year as big favorites.

NY GIANTS (-4) over New Orleans: The Saints are done at 5-7. A lot of people expect the Saints to give the G-Men all they can handle this week, but I don't see it. The Giants have been beat up by the Saints the last few years, but they get the wounded Saints in their building. The Giants will put a whipping on this week in the Meadowlands.

SEATTLE (-9) over Arizona: Bad matchup for the Cardinals. I really feel bad with Ken Whisenhunt. He is a good coach, but he had to coach some of the shittiest QBs that I could ever remember in the NFL. Now they have to go Seattle to take on that nasty defense. Seattle's win over the Bears was tremendous, and I would expect them to really beat up on the Cards this week to get to 8-5.

Detroit (+7) over GREEN BAY: I think the Packers win this game, but for some reason this game will be close. The Lions are not as bad as their 4-8 record indicates, but with Matt Stafford and Calvin Johnson they are always dangerous. It looks like Jordy Nelson will be out this week, and I could just see the Packers having a tough time pulling it out.

Houston (+4) over NEW ENGLAND: This is a great game for Monday Night Football this week. 11-1 Houston heads to Foxborough to take on the 9-3 Patriots. Huge game in the AFC. I know the Pats are at home, and the Texans are banged up on defense, but if Houston can control the ball with that running game, it will set up everything in their play action game. You know that the Texans can get the ball downfield on this Patriots defense. This should be a great game, but I have a sneaky feeling that the  Texans will win this game and it might even be in a convincing fashion.