Week 16 Picks

We have reached Christmas weekend in the NFL calendar, and the matchups in Week 16 aren't as juicy as last week. Obviously, the Broncos have to win out to clinch the number 2 seed in the AFC, so we know the importance of their games. If Atlanta and Houston win this weekend, then they both clinch homefield advantage in their respective conferences. The Colts can clinch a playoff spot with a win at hapless Kansas City. The real races in the playoffs occur in two spots: The NFC East and the AFC North. If you are looking for a set of games to keep an eye on this Sunday, then here they are: Cincy at Pittsburgh, Washington at Philly, New Orleans at Dallas, and the Giants at Baltimore. Those four games will hold the key to what needs to be decided in Week 17. I know the Bears are still alive and go to Arizona this week, but the drama lies in the NFC East. We are definitely headed to final Sunday Night Football matchup between the Redskins and Cowboys with the NFC East title up for grabs. Those four games will have a huge impact into what the playoff scenarios look like come Week 17. It is a fun time of year for a football fan and enjoy this weekend's slate of games.

Onto the picks for Week 15...
Last Week's Record: 8-8
Overall Record: 104-109-9
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

Tennessee (+13) over GREEN BAY: Did you see how bad the Titans were in their win over the Jets on Monday night? At 5-9, the Titans are a really bad football team, but for some reason I'll take them getting a shit load of points in Lambeau this week. The Packers will win outright, but they have already clinched the NFC North, and I could see them just cruising along in this one. It does worry me that the game time temperature is only supposed to be 22 degrees, but I'll take my chances with the Titans getting a cheap, backdoor cover.

San Diego (+3) over NY JETS: Where do you start with the Jets? Has there ever been more publicity for a team that is 6-8 and out of playoff contention? The Jets bench Mark Sanchez for this game, and go with Greg McElroy instead of Tim Tebow. There will be a lot of angry fans at the Meadowlands on Sunday. The Chargers are playing out the string in the last few games of the Norv Turner Era. Philip Rivers will have a big day through the air, and San Diego will win the game outright, which will cause more hysteria and complaint amongst Jets as they limp towards the finish line in 2012.

Oakland (+9) over CAROLINA: Call this the "Hunch Game of the Week" because the Raiders come limping in at 4-10, and the Panthers are suddenly "surging" at 5-9. A meaningless game that has no significance, but I'll take the Raiders as a huge underdog.

MIAMI (-4) over Buffalo: Easy pick here because the Bills have been really disappointing to me this year. The Dolphins have a very slim chance at making the playoffs, but they have played hard all year long and look for them to put a beatdown on the Bills this week.

PITTSBURGH (-3) over Cincy: Great matchup in the AFC this week. I loved the Bengals all week, but I am going to ride Big Ben and the Steelers one more time. They have to find a way to win this game this week? Right?

New England (-14) over JACKSONVILLE: It's a rematch of the 1996 AFC Championship Game!!!!! This will be over very quickly. The Pats jump on the Jags right from the get-go and never look back.

Indy (-7) over KANSAS CITY: This horrible season for the Chiefs is almost coming to a close. The Colts are just one win away from clinching a playoff berth in the first year of the "Chuckstrong-Andrew Luck" Era. The Colts will take care of business in Arrowhead, and they will clinch the year's most surprising playoff berth.

DALLAS (-3) over New Orleans: I liked the Saints a lot this week, but I kept thinking about how the Cowboys could completely implode on their fans. I came up with this: Dallas wins another close game this week, and sets up a trip to Washington to take on the Skins next Sunday for the NFC title. The Cowboys lose that game, and the Giants win both of their last two games, and once again the Cowboys are on the outside looking in at the playoffs.

PHILLY (+7) over Washington: This Redskins will win this game late, but look for it to be closer than a lot of people think. The Eagles get Lesean McCoy back this week, so that has to help somehow. I think this game is a one possession game late, and look for RG III to find a way to win it. Call it 27-24 Redskins.

TAMPA BAY (-3) over St. Louis: Two valiant seasons by two teams rebuilding. The Bucs will win this game by at least a touchdown, but both of these teams will be very dangerous come 2013.

New York Giants (-2) over BALTIMORE: I loved watching the Ravens get smacked around by the Broncos last week, and at 9-5 the Ravens are reeling right now. In come the Giants, who are doing their usual late-season disappearing act. I like the G-Men in this one because their backs are against the wall, and the Ravens are so beat up on defense and on their offensive line. Take the Giants laying only the two.

HOUSTON (-8) over Minnesota: I love the Adrian Peterson story, but take the Texans big at home for this reason only: Christian Ponder on the road against the fired up Texans front seven.

Chicago (-5) over ARIZONA: I would love to see the Bears implode once again down the stretch. Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall are widely regarded as one of the best QB-WR combos in the entire NFL, yet they haven't been to the playoffs in any season they were on the same team (2006-2008 in Denver.) Could they repeat their epic collapse of 2008 with Denver here in Chicago in 2012? They might, but I think they get the win this week in Arizona. The Cards got their win last week over Detroit to snap their nine-game losing streak, so look for the Bears to win this one in dominating fashion. The Bears and their season will come crumbling down next week on the road in Detroit.

SEATTLE (PICK) over San Francisco: I could see the Niners winning this game on the road, but the Seahawks are really playing well at this point. Seattle won't catch San Francisco for the division because the Niners finish up with Arizona at home, but the Seahawks will solidify their wild card spot with a win on Sunday Night Football.

Cleveland (+13) over DENVER: The Broncos have been on such a roll every time I pick against them in the spread, so how could I go against the grain? The Broncos have the inside track on the 2 seed in the AFC, and a first round bye. The prize for all of that: Most likely hosting the Patriots in the Divisional Round. That won't be very fun, but we will have plenty of time to talk about that down the road. Denver has to take of their last two games, both at home, and it starts with the Browns this week. Clearly Denver is the better team, and their defense should matchup favorably against rookie QB Brandon Weeden. The Broncos should win the game, but you know how the NFL goes. This one could be a lot closer than you think. Maybe Peyton Manning drives the Broncos 98 yards in the last five minutes to win it.

Final Score: Denver-23- Cleveland-20