Week 17 Picks

The final week of the 2012 NFL season is here. It is always amazing how fast the NFL season goes, and this year went by "Milennium Falcon light-speed" fast. As usual many of the NFL pundits and experts will talk about how "topsy-turvy" and "wacky" this year was, but I really disagree with that. Yes, there have been some surprises (Minnesota and Indy), there have been some disappointments (Eagles and Steelers), but for the most part this season has been very ordinary. Five out of six playoff teams returned in the AFC-with the lone exception being the Steelers. In the NFC, Washington has surprised some, but are you really surprised with the addition of Robert Griffin III. People liked Seattle going into the season with Matt Flynn as a the starter and not Russell Wilson, so the Seahawks haven't snuck up on anyone. The Giants started 6-2, then faded as usual down the stretch, and they are on their playoff lifeline heading into Week 17. The Cowboys were up-and-down all year, and for the second straight year they find themselves at 8-7 and playing for the NFC East title on the last Sunday night game of the year. The Packers, Niners, and Falcons are all returning to the playoffs, and the Bears collapsed down the stretch once again and need help just to make the playoffs. With that said, usually the last week of the season does produce some surprises. Last year, the only real surprise the last week provided was in the AFC East. Denver lost at home to Kansas City, but won the West at 8-8 because the Raiders lost to the Chargers at home. This year has the potential to have some real crazy things happen-especially in the NFC. It would be great for some of these scenarios to play out: The Giants beat the Eagles and the Lions upset the Bears in the early games on Sunday. Then, the Packers beat the Vikings in the late window, and it sets up the Cowboys and Redskins in a do or die game on Sunday night. If the Cowboys win, then Dallas will win the East, but Washington will still get in as the sixth seed with a tiebreaker over the Giants. If Washington wins, then Dallas is out, the Skins win the East, and the Giants get in as the 6 seed. In the AFC, it is all about seeding. If you are a Broncos fan, then you have to look for a few things. Hopefully, Indy pulls out all the stops and upsets the Texans at home in the early game, then Denver takes care of business over Kansas City, and the Pats beat Miami to give the 1 seed to Denver, the 2 seed to New England, and the 3 seed to Houston. Denver would have homefield advantage throughout the playoffs. In what was a very ordinary season in the NFL, maybe there will be one wacky finish to the regular season. Onto the picks for Week 17.......

Last Week's Record: 5-9-2
Overall Record: 109-118-11
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

BUFFALO (-3) over New York Jets: The Bills were a major disappointment this year in my opinion. It is amazing how losing the first game of the season can really set the tone for the rest of year in some cases. The Bills are a perfect example of that. It seems like they never really recovered after getting torched by the Jets in Week 1. The Jets limp in to the finale at 6-9, and they have been the most publicized 6-9 team in NFL history. Has any team generated some much talk from training camp until Week 17 in recent memory? All that talk for a team that is not going to have a winning season. It feels like the Jets are 3-12 with all the negative talk that surrounds them on a weekly basis. This season can't end soon enough for Jets and their fans.

Miami (+11) over NEW ENGLAND: The Dolphins are looking to finish a respectable 8-8 in the first season under Joe Philbin. I never thought that the Fish would win 7-8 games this year, so they have been a surprise under their new head coach. A win here could really jumpstart them into a possible playoff team in 2013. The Patriots would love to get a first-round bye, but with the way that their offense is humming, it doesn't matter who the Pats play and where. When you have Tom Brady, you can win anywhere, and they are still the best team in the AFC heading into the playoffs. Expect a win for the Pats, but the Dolphins keep it under a 10 point margin.

CINCY (-2) over Baltimore: Baltimore got back on track last week with a convincing win at home over the Giants, and at 10-5 they are locked in as the AFC North champs. It has been a weird year for the Ravens. They haven't looked great in many of their wins, and they got crushed by two of the big dogs, Houston and Denver, in some of the biggest games of the year. They might not go all out in this game, and deal with the Colts next week, and try to avoid the Bengals once again next week in the first round. Give the Bengals credit for this season. I did not think that the Bengals would rebound and make the playoffs again this season, but they turned around their season after a 3-5 start. Although they are locked into the 6 seed, I think they want to play hard and win this game, get to 10 wins, and knock off Baltimore after they defeated the Steelers last week. Cincy will be an interesting team to watch in the playoffs.

PITTSBURGH (PICK) over Cleveland: The Steelers were a major disappointment this year. I had them winning the division and making a deep run in the playoffs. They were on the right track until Ben Roethlisberger got hurt, and then when Big Ben came back, they lost two brutal games to Dallas and Cincy to knock them out of contention. It will be interesting to see what happens with Offensive Coordinator Todd Haley, and there might be a change with his job status. Whatever happens to him, look for the Steelers to rebound next year and come back strong in 2013. Cleveland is riding out the string here, and they are forced to start Thaddeus Lewis at quarterback. There will be major changes once again in Cleveland, and it will be interesting to see if they can lure a big name coach next year.

INDY (+7) over Houston: The Colts are the story of the AFC this year. I thought they would be much improved with Andrew Luck, and I even predicted them to win at least 7-8 games this year. Throw in the whole Chuck Pagano story, and you have a recipe for a real feel-good story in Indy. It is quite an accomplishment that they are in the playoffs. They are locked into the 5 seed, but it sounds like they are  going to play hard this last week. Houston has faded a little bit down the stretch after getting crushed by New England and pounded by Minnesota. They need this win badly because they want the #1 seed in the worst way. If they lose this game, they could end up as the 3 seed. This game feels like a 24-21 game either way, but the Texans will find a way to win a close one.

TENNESSEE (-3) over Jacksonville: Two teams that are amongst the worst in the NFL. Jacksonville needs to blow everything up, start over in the front office, recruit a college-type coach, and somehow get Tim Tebow on their team to give them some hype going into 2013. I thought the Titans would be sneaky good this year, but I was dead wrong. Mike Munchak might get fired, and there are still a lot of questions regarding Jake Locker. They also never recovered after their first game of the year when they got killed by the Patriots at home.

Philly (+7) over NEW YORK GIANTS: The Giants started 6-2, then went into their usual second half swoon, and now find themselves at 8-7 and needing to hit an inside straight to make the playoffs. No matter what happens to the Giants in this game, they will not get on a run if they make the playoffs. If they miss out, then there will changes regardless. When you are the defending Super Bowl champs, if you miss the playoffs the next season, then it is a major disappointment. The Eagles are finishing a really disappointing season, and this will be Andy Reid's last game as Eagles coach. With Nick Foles out with an injury, the Eagles turn back to Michael Vick. It would be fitting for the Eagles to go out on a high note with Vick and Reid ruining the Giants season.

DETROIT (+4) over Chicago: The Bears were 7-1, and they looked like Super Bowl contenders. Now, they are 9-6, and they need a win plus the Vikings to lose to make the playoffs. This is one of those franchise altering games for the Bears. If they win, there is a good chance they make the playoffs. If they lose, then Lovie Smith is probably gone, and there will be a lot questions about the age in their defense and even QB Jay Cutler. The Lions have been truly disappointing this season, and they have imploded badly the last month. However, they do have talent on this roster. The Lions really hate the Bears a lot, and there is plenty of bad blood in this rivalry. The Lions can at least salvage something if they can find a way to knock off the Bears at home this week. The Bears will probably win the game, but look for the Lions to make then sweat it out.

Green Bay (-3) over MINNESOTA: The Packers got off to a 2-3 start, and everyone was panicking. They are 9-1 since, and Aaron Rodgers has been playing really well from that point. They are fighting for the 2 seed and a bye in the NFC, and they will be very dangerous in the playoffs. They need this game because they don't want to have to play San Francisco or Seattle on the road in the Divisional Round. The Vikings have been a real surprise this year, and they can make the playoffs by beating the Packers at home. Even if they don't win, this season can still be considered a success. Adrian Peterson could win the MVP award very easily, and they will give the Packers everything they got, but I think they fall just short.

ATLANTA (PICK) over Tampa Bay: The Falcons are 13-2 and have the #1 seed in the NFC locked up. It doesn't matter what the Falcons do this week because their focus will have to be their first playoff game at home in two weeks. The Bucs were surprising everyone with their 6-4 record at one point, but they have fallen apart and now stand at 6-9. I think Greg Schiano has done a good job nonetheless, and they are a team definitely headed in the right direction.

NEW ORLEANS (-4) over Carolina: The Saints season got hijacked by the bounty suspensions, but they have played really well the last two weeks. They want to win this last game, finish 8-8, and turn the page on 2012 and get going for 2013. Sean Payton signed an extension with the team today and look for them to rebound and get back into the playoffs in 2013. The Panthers were a trendy pick to make the playoffs in Year 2 of the Cam Newton Era, but they had a terrible start to the season. They picked it up late and at 6-9, they are looking to finish strong and get that seventh win. A win here could save Ron Rivera's job, but it won't really matter. What matters for next year is the continued development and maturity of Cam Newton. They will be an interesting team to watch heading into next season.

SAN DIEGO (PICK) over Oakland: The Chargers are playing out the string as Norv Turner is likely on his way out. It has been three years since the Chargers made the playoffs, and they need an overhaul at the top, but I don't think they are far off. Someone has to come in and help turn Philip Rivers' career around. The Raiders are clearly rebuilding and it is not surprising that they are 4-11 at this point. It will take some time for GM Reggie McKenize and Head Coach Dennis Allen to get the Raiders into a contender.

Arizona (+17) over SAN FRANCISCO: The Niners got crushed last Sunday night at Seattle, but they can still get the 2 seed with a win at home this week over the Cardinals. I don't know if the Niners can make a deep playoff run this year, but I do like their chances if they get the bye. They are another team that really needs to get a bye and a week off. I think they are a better team than the Packers, but I don't know if I would take Colin Kaepernick in his first road playoff game at Lambeau against a well-rested Green Bay squad. The Cardinals are so dismal and their 4-0 start seems like it happened years ago. They will go with Brian Hoyer this week, and anything is better than the John Skelton-Ryan Lindley tag team that they have sent out there the last two months. The Niners will win the game, but the Cards could keep it under 17 points.

SEATTLE (-10) over St. Louis: The Seahawks have been red-hot the last month and at 10-5 they could still win the division and get a bye of the Packers and Niners get tripped up. They will be a very tough team to deal with in the playoffs, but the question will be how they will play on the road because they are probably going to be the 5th seed and head to either Washington or Dallas on Wild Card Weekend. Great year for Pete Carroll and that staff. They are going to be a very interesting team to watch in January. The Rams are finishing off a very solid campaign. At 7-7-1, they have definitely exceeded a lot of expectations in Jeff Fisher's first year. Even if they lose this game and finish 7-8-1, they have to be happy in the direction of their franchise. They will be a very popular wildcard contender next year.

Dallas (+4) over WASHINGTON: The Redskins are 9-6, and they have won six in a row after starting the season at 3-6. RG III has been one of the most exciting players in the league this year, and he is certainly the type of person that the NFL can embrace. It would be a great story for the NFL to see him and the Redskins win this game and win the NFC East. The underlying scenario here is this: Washington might know that it doesn't necessarily HAVE to win this game to make the playoffs by the time this contest kicks off on Sunday night. If the Bears and Vikings both lose earlier in the day, then the Redskins can still make the playoffs as the 6 seed if they lose to Dallas. I know Mike Shanahan wouldn't want to back into the playoffs as a wild card, but it is something to think about. It is amazing that a year later the Cowboys find themselves in the same position as 2011. They are 8-7, on the road, and they need a win to win the NFC East or they are out of the playoffs all together. The Cowboys got crushed by the Giants last year, and they were never in the game. This year is feels a little different. This team is very quirky, but can they lose another must win game to finish the season two years in a row? This is a fascinating matchup, and I'm not sure I have any idea who will win this game. I do think it will be very close and come down to the final possession. In that case, I'll take the Cowboys and the points.

Kansas City (+16) over DENVER: The Chiefs are battling Jacksonville for the number 1 pick in the 2013 NFL Draft, and they can't wait for this dreadful season to end. Romeo Crennel is probably out as head coach, and GM Scott Pioli might be gone too. They have no answer at quarterback, and they need to find one in the draft, but there is no Andrew Luck or RG III in this year's crop of quarterbacks. It will be very interesting to see what they do at that position in this offseason. The Broncos are galloping into the postseason at 12-3 and winners of 10 straight games. The Peyton Manning signing has completely changed everything for this franchise. The Broncos can get a bye in the first round if they win this game. I wonder what all those experts are thinking when many of them picked the Chiefs to win the AFC West, and the Broncos to struggle to under Manning this year. One last thing about this game: Do you remember a year ago at this time? Denver was hosting KC in Week 17, and the Broncos were 8-7 with Tim Tebow at QB and all they needed was a win over the 6-9 Chiefs and Kyle Orton to win the AFC West. Tebow played very poorly and the Chiefs beat the Broncos 7-3. Only a Raiders loss to the Chargers got the Broncos into the playoffs at 8-8. A year later and in Week 17 the Broncos host the Chiefs with Peyton Manning as their quarterback, Tebow floundering with the Jets, the Chiefs in disarray, Orton a backup in Dallas, an AFC West title that was locked up in early December, and the Broncos fighting for a bye and possibly the #1 seed in the AFC. It is crazy how much things can change in one year.

Final Score: Denver-27 KC-17