Broncos Cruise Past Raiders, Lock Up #1 Seed in AFC

The Broncos finished off their 2013 season in style with an easy, blowout victory over the Raiders 34-14 to secure a 13-3 season and securing the #1 seed in the AFC for the second year in a row. Peyton Manning broke the NFL record for yards passing in a season and also added four touchdown passes to give him a ridiculous 55 for the season. The Broncos cruised to a 31-0 lead on the heels of Manning's four TD passes, and he even sat the entire second half of the game. Denver's defense was able to completely shut down an ineffective Terrelle Pryor, and really this game was over from the first drive. It actually worked out well because the Broncos were so far ahead that they were allowed to rest Manning for the second half and get some other important players out of the game without exposing them to any type of injury. For the Broncos, the regular season is now complete and the Broncos find themselves in the same exact spot they were in last year: 13-3 record, #1 seed in the AFC, homefield advantage throughout the playoffs, and a bye into the Divisional round. What happens next remains to be seen, and as we saw last year anything can happen once the NFL playoffs get going. I'll have a complete recap of the historic Broncos season and their chances going forward in the playoffs later on in the week. I'll take a look back at this week's game with my thoughts and observations first....

1) Hats off to Peyton Manning. He finished his amazing 2013 season with a performance like this in only one half of work: 25-28 for 266 yards and 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. He started with a short 3 yard touchdown pass to Eric Decker for a 7-0 lead. He got his second on the next series with a nice dumpoff to Knowshon Moreno for a 7 yard touchdown to make it 14-0. The beauty of the day was his next one which was a 63 yard bomb to Demaryius Thomas which he caught in stride to make it  24-0. He finished his day with a sweet 5 yard bullet to Thomas to make it 31-0 right before the half. It was about as good as you get for a performance for one half.

2) Decker and Thomas are quite a duo at the receiver position. Thomas caught 6 catches for 113 yards and 2 touchdowns. Decker added only 4 receptions for 27 yards and one touchdown. I think the Denver brass needs to lock up Decker after this year and Thomas after next season and keep this tandem together in Denver for a long time.

3) Knowshon Moreno concluded one of the most under the radar seasons for a running back in recent memory. He added a touchdown reception to go with 5 catches and 41 yards. He finished with 11 touches for 64 total yards. Amazing job by Moreno all year long.

4) Nice job by the Broncos defense this week, but let's be real for a moment: That was not a NFL offense that the Broncos played against this week. The Raiders were basically running a high school spread offense with Pryor, and the Broncos were prepared for everything. They harassed Pryor all day, and he was awful even when he had time. You really can't tell how this group will respond without Von Miller in the playoffs, but at least Champ Bailey got some meaningful snaps again, and if he is in the lineup it will certainly help them out in the postseason.

5) The Broncos needed to take control of this game early and not let the Raiders hang around. They were able to do that from the start. They scored on all five of their first half possessions with four touchdowns and one field goal. Their defense got an early turnover and it was over by the half. It was just a complete domination by the Broncos, and it was exactly what they needed. They took care of business and they were able to rest some starters in the second half while they locked up the AFC's top seed.

6) I will spend time later in the week on the significance of this Broncos season but just chew on some of these stats:
-606 points scored (NFL record)
-Average PPG: 37.8
-13 games with at least 30 points scored
-6 games with at least 40 points scored
-3 games with at least 50 points scored
-Peyton Manning: 5,477 yards passing (NFL record)
-Manning: 55 touchdown passes
-Knowshon Moreno: 1,038 yards rushing and 10 touchdowns rushing and 60 receptions for 548 yards and 3 touchdowns.
-Demaryius Thomas: 92 receptions for 1,430 yards and 14 touchdowns
-Eric Decker: 87 receptions for 1,288 yards and 11 touchdowns
-Wes Welker: 73 receptions for 778 yards and 10 touchdowns
-Julius Thomas: 65 receptions for 788 yards and 12 touchdowns

Just an incredible season offensively for the Broncos and their record setting offensive unit. If the Broncos win the Super Bowl this year, then I think this Broncos offense is going to have to average about 34 points a game and Manning is going to have to put his team on his back and ride them to the promised land.

7) I talk about this more later in the week, but it is very hard to go 13-3 in back-to-back seasons and they are the #1 seed once again for the second consecutive year. It is hard to make it to the playoffs back-to-back seasons in the NFL, let alone back-to-back #1 seeds. The Broncos faced a lot of adversity on and off the field this year, so to end up in the same exact spot one year after that awful defeat to the Ravens in the playoffs last year is pretty amazing. It was never really about the regular season for these Broncos, and we'll see what happens in the playoffs, but it was so much fun to watch Manning and this team week after week. It was like watching an artist complete his greatest piece of work every single week. I just hope the fun continues for three more games.

NFL Playoff Schedule Predictions and Week 17 Picks

With the final week of the 2013 season upon us, it is time for me to break out my Playoff Schedule Predictions for the 2013 NFL postseason. As always it is my guilty pleasure to try to predict what matchups will be scheduled in what timeslots on the different networks. It is always tough to call because the playoff teams are not set yet, but the NFL and the networks slot the games in certain spots. The games are rotated on a yearly basis, so the games have to be set up a certain way. Every year it fascinates me to see how the league sets up the games and how it affects the schedule, so every year I try to predict how it plays out before the games in Week 17. Here is what I think will happen based on my predictions for Week 17...

Wild Card Weekend:
Saturday January 4th
NBC-4:30pm EST: (5) Kansas City at (4) Indianapolis
NBC- 8:00pm EST: (5) San Francisco at (4) Green Bay

Sunday January 5th
FOX-1:00pm EST: (6) New Orleans at (3) Philadelphia
CBS-4:30pm EST: (6) San Diego at (3) Cincinnati

*If Miami gets the 6th seed, then I think that Miami and Cincy will still be on Sunday 1/5.
*If Chicago wins the North over Green Bay, then I still think that SF/Chi will be on Saturday night on NBC.

Divisional Weekend:
Saturday January 11th
FOX-4:30pm EST: @ Carolina
CBS-8:00pm EST: @ Denver

Saturday January 12th
CBS- 1:00pm EST: @ New England
FOX-4:00pm EST: @ Seattle

Before I get to my Week 17 picks, I am six games over .500 with one week to play. All I need to do is go at least 6-10 this week to finish with a record over .500 for the season which would be a great accomplishment for me this season. Onto the picks for Week 17...

Last Week's Record: 8-7-1
Overall Record: 118-112-12
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

ATLANTA (+6) over Carolina: I think the Panthers will win this game and grab the #2 seed in the NFC, but I think the Falcons will give them everything they have in this finale.

TENNESSEE (-7) over Houston: Meaningless game. The Titans get to 7-9 and the Texans secure the #1 pick in the NFL Draft with their 14th straight loss.

PITTSBURGH (-6) over Cleveland: The Steelers keep their faint playoff hopes alive for a few hours as they get to 8-8 with a win over their rival.

NY GIANTS (-2) over Washington: Another meaningless game and the G-Men get to 7-9 on the year, and the Mike Shanahan Era ends in Washington with a 3-13 campaign.

CINCY (-5) over Baltimore: The Bengals have plenty of motivation in this game. They can knock the Ravens out of the playoffs and they can still get the #2 seed in the AFC.

INDY (-10) over Jacksonville: Indy could still get the #3 seed and they have an outside shot at the #2 seed. They will take care of their end by thumping the Jags at home.

New York Jets (+6) over MIAMI: There is always a surprise game in Week 17. I have a feeling that this might be the one. The Jets can get to 8-8 and help save Rex Ryan's job and in the process knock the Dolphins out of the playoffs. Miami might win this game, but it will come down to the wire.

Detroit (+3) over MINNESOTA: What a disappointment the Lions were this season. I had them in the playoffs before the year, but they have lost three games in a row after they were sitting in good shape at 7-5. This should be Jim Schwartz's last game as head coach.

Green Bay (PICK) over CHICAGO: Aaron Rodgers will be back for this game, and this sets up a huge storyline for this game. One game for the NFC North title, and it involves the Packers and the Bears. You can't get a better scenario than that one.

Buffalo (+9) over NEW ENGLAND: I think the Pats will win the game, but I think it will be closer than people think. Look for the Bills to hang around for awhile in this one.

Tampa Bay (+13) over NEW ORLEANS: This game has some potential as a stunner. Stranger things have happened in the final week of the season in the past. The Saints will win, but I think it will be closer than expected.

ARIZONA (+2) over San Francisco: When this game kicks off, Arizona will be playing with their playoff hopes still alive. Usually a team fighting for the playoffs will outplay a team that is already in the playoffs. Seeding doesn't really matter to those teams that are already in the playoffs.

SAN DIEGO (-7) over Kansas City: The Chiefs are already locked in to the #5 seed, so there is a good chance that they will not play many of their key players. I have a feeling the Chargers are going to find their way into the playoffs. Look for a big win by San Diego at home.

SEATTLE (-9) over St. Louis: After last week's stunning home loss to Arizona, the Seahawks need to win this game to lock up the #1 seed in the NFC. I think they will be focused and ready to go for this game, and they will take care of business at home over the Rams.

Philly (-4) over DALLAS: Tony Romo will probably miss this game because of a back injury which means that Kyle Orton will get the start in his place. The Cowboys season rests on the right arm of Kyle Orton. How amazing is that? Broncos fans will tell you that Kyle Orton is not the QB running your franchise, but for one game Orton could get the job done. I just think that the Eagles are just the better team right now, and their offense should find a way to put up enough points to hold off the Cowboys.

Denver (-10) over OAKLAND: Denver needs to win this game to secure the #1 seed in the AFC. The Pats will be playing at the same time, so the Broncos can't rest anyone and to play this to the end. Terrelle Pryor gets the start for the Raiders, and this game will be back and forth for a while, but look for Peyton Manning and the Broncos to push the pedal to the medal when they have to and get the job done in the end.

Final Score: Broncos-38 Raiders-24

Broncos Roll Past Texans, Clinch AFC West Crown

The Broncos finally were able to lock up the AFC West on Sunday with a 37-13 thumping of the Houston Texans. That result coupled with a Kansas City loss to Indy gave the Broncos the division and at least a first round bye. Denver still needs to win this week to clinch homefield advantage throughout. Either way, the Broncos will get a bye week at least and host at least one playoff game in two weeks. As for Sunday's game, the Broncos dominated most of the first half and built a 16-6 lead at halftime. The Broncos offense struggled coming out of the half and Houston cut the lead to 16-13 late in the third quarter. Denver and Peyton Manning then put the game away in the final quarter. Three touchdown passes later, Manning gets the record for touchdown passes in the regular season and the Broncos roll to the division title. At 12-3, Denver now is one win away from locking up homefield advantage for the second straight year. Denver also clinched their third straight AFC West title. Here are my thoughts and observations on the game....

1) Kudos to Peyton Manning for throwing 4 touchdowns and setting the record for TD passes in a season with 51. It was very cool to see Manning go all out to get the record with the Broncos up 30-13 late in the game. Manning was pretty much on fire the whole game with the exception of the third quarter. He finished 32-51 for 400 yards with 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. He also exceeded 5,000 yards for the season. Manning was spreading the ball around all day long. To watch Manning every week is just a pleasure every week. I know I say it a lot, but it is simply amazing to watch him run this offense every game.

2) Knowshon Moreno had another solid game and he finished 11 carries for 76 yards. He has eclipsed over 1,000 yards for the season, and he has been one of the most valuable players on this offense besides Manning. Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas once again picked up the slack with Wes Welker out again. Decker finished with 10 catches for 131 yards and 2 touchdowns and Thomas added 8 receptions for 123 yards and 1 touchdown.

3) The Broncos completely dominated the first half, but they kept settling for field goals. It was key that they got a field goal near the end of the half to make it 16-6 instead of 13-6 at halftime.

4) The real bummer of this game was the fact that Denver lost Von Miller for the year with an ACL injury. He was hurt early in the first quarter, and you could tell it was bad when he crumpled to the field holding his knee like he just got shot. On Monday it was confirmed that he tore his ACL and will be out for the season. I'll talk more about his impact when I preview the Broncos playoff run, and the ramifications going forward in the playoffs.

5) The Broncos defense was able to hold up well and they played really well in the second half. I know it was against Matt Schaub, who was awful by the way, but the defense really rallied together in the second half. The key sequences were the following: With Denver up 16-13, the Texans were driving in Denver territory, but the Broncos got back-to-back sacks on Schaub to stifle the drive. Danny Trevathan got the first one, and Robert Ayers got the second one to end that drive. Then, on the next drive and on the second play of the 4th quarter, Mike Adams picked off Schaub to give the Broncos the ball deep in Houston territory. It was one of the biggest plays the Broncos defense has made in weeks. It set up a Manning to Eric Decker 10 yard touchdown pass to give the Broncos a 23-13 lead and put the Texans away. 

6) Manning's third touchdown pass of the game and his 50th of the season was a floater to Decker in the corner of the end zone. It was a great play, and it almost seemed like Manning just floated it up there and was the only one who knew where it was going to land. I guess when you are that good, then passes like that go your way. His 51st TD pass and final of the game to Julius Thomas was a great throw on a go route in which Thomas was matched up on a linebacker and as we have seen all year those matchups just don't work well for the defense.

7) The Broncos clinched the AFC West for the third straight season. After making the playoffs from 2003-2005, the Broncos missed the playoffs for five straight years from 2006-2010. Now, they are in the playoffs for the third year in a row. Also, this was the first time Denver won the AFC West title three years in a row. At 12-3, the Broncos need to beat Oakland in Week 17 to clinch homefield advantage for the playoffs. They need to play all their starters because the Pats are playing the Bills at the same time, and if the Pats win and Denver loses, then the Broncos would be the #2 seed and New England would get the #1 seed. In any event, the Broncos will have at least a bye and will host a playoff game on Divisional weekend. If the NFL playoff scheduling format remains the same, then look for Denver to host a playoff game on Saturday night January 11th at 8:00pm EST. 

Week 16 Picks

The Broncos hit Week 16 in a better position than the last time they played two Thursdays ago. Denver's loss to San Diego at home dropped the Broncos to 11-3, but New England now controlled the  top seed in the AFC because they hold the tiebreaker with their win back in November. Things turned a little better for the Broncos after the Patriots lost to the Dolphins. That gave the Broncos a chance to still get the #1 seed. Now, Denver still has to worry about the Chiefs. KC is 11-3, but at least Denver owns the tiebreaker because of the head-to-head sweep. If Denver wins out, then they will win the division. If they win out, then they will take the top seed in the conference. It would be nice if KC gets tripped up this week at home against Indy, and the Pats lose on the road to Baltimore, and in that case all Denver would have to do would be to beat Houston to clinch the #1 seed. Let's hope it all plays out that way, but in any event Denver just has to keep winning and everything will take care of itself. Onto the picks for Week 16...

Last Week's Record: 8-8
Overall Record: 110-105-11
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

Miami (-3) over BUFFALO: After the Dolphins won in the snow over Pittsburgh two weeks ago, I think you can trust them in cold weather this weekend. It actually might be pretty nice for them in Buffalo anyway on Sunday. I think the Dolphins will get by and get to 9-6 and really help their wild card chances.

New Orleans (+3) over CAROLINA: Toughest game to call all week. The Saints are not the same team on the road, and they are walking into a building with a really good team and solid defense. All signs point to a coming out party for the Panthers, but I'm going to go the other way. Watch the Saints rise up and take this one and the NFC South in the process.

Dallas (-3) over WASHINGTON: As bad as that loss was last week for the Cowboys, I still think they will find a way to get the road win over their rival Redskins. It has to come down to Dallas hosting Philly for the NFC East title. It is destined to be that way.

ST.LOUIS (-3) over Tampa Bay: Meaningless game but I'll take the Rams at home to get 7-8.

NY JETS (-2) over Cleveland: Another meaningless game, and I'll take the Jets at home with their defense.

Indy (+7) over KANSAS CITY: The Colts have been pretty shitty the last month, and last week's walkover win at home over Houston didn't really impress too many people. I think they are due for a big effort. Anytime you have Andrew Luck on the road, you have a chance. I think KC might win it in the end, but it will be close.

CINCY (-7) over Minnesota: Bengals laid an egg last week at Pittsburgh. I think they rebound this week with a big effort over the Vikings at home, where they are very good.

JACKSONVILLE (+5) over Tennessee: Another meaningless game in the AFC South. Look for the Jags to be a live home dog.

Arizona (+10) over SEATTLE: The Seahawks embarrassed the Cards last year in Seattle 58-0. This is a different Arizona team this time around. Seattle will win, but look for the Cards to keep it closer than people think.

DETROIT (-7) over New York Giants: Everyone is killing the Lions chances at winning the NFC North, but they still have a shot. The Giants are playing out the string at this point. I can't see them giving the Lions a game here.

SAN DIEGO (-9) over Oakland: The Chargers are still alive for the wild card at 7-7. If they win this week, they still have a chance with some help to get in. I think they roll over Oakland at home.

GREEN BAY (-2) over Pittsburgh: Matt Flynn gets the start once again for the injured Aaron Rodgers. The Packers are coming off their thrilling comeback win over the Cowboys last week. At 7-6-1, they still have a chance to win the NFC North. Tough game to call, but I'll take the Packers to find another way to stay alive.

BALTIMORE (-2) over New England: The Pats lost a tough game to Miami last week on the road late.  At 10-4, they need this game but it won't be the end of the world if they lose, because they can still clinch the division next week with a win at home over Buffalo. This week they head to Baltimore and the Ravens are red hot. They have won four in a row, and at 8-6 they are in the midst of the playoff race. They always play well against the Pats, and I think they will win this game to get to 9-6.

Chicago (+3) over PHILLY: Weird game because if Dallas loses earlier in the day, the Eagles could clinch the East. I don't know how this game will turn out as a result. I'll take the points with the Bears on the road.

SAN FRANCISCO (-10) over Atlanta: The last game at Candlestick Park will be a glorious one for the 49ers. Look for SF to take care of business and get to 11-4 with a convincing win over the Falcons.

Denver (-9) over HOUSTON: The Texans will play tough, and this game will be close for a while. Denver needs to get back on track after last week's loss to the Chargers, and I think this is the week for them. This game does scare me, but I'm going to take the Broncos here in a must-win situation for their seeding and division title hopes.

Final Score: Broncos-34 Texans-24

Broncos Blow Game To Chargers and Week 15 Picks

What a disappointing effort and outcome for the Broncos on Thursday Night Football against the Chargers. Denver's 27-20 loss was a bad one because Denver fell to 11-3, but it opened the door for New England to get homefield advantage again, and it gave KC a shot at the AFC West once again. The bottom line in this game is that the Chargers executed and Denver didn't. You can make all the excuses you want-trust me I will- but San Diego was the better team tonight. Denver now has 10 days to regroup, get healthy and get ready for the Texans in Houston on Sunday 12/22. Here are my quick thoughts and observations about the game....

1) Denver's defense continues to struggle, and they made way too many mental mistakes. Kayvon Webster continues to get beat once again, and Philip Rivers had too much time to make the Broncos pay on third downs. SD converted most of their third downs, and that was the story of the game. Ryan Matthews had a big day on the ground, and the Chargers controlled the time of possession. Like I said earlier, Denver's defense is too suspect right now and the Chargers took advantage.

2) Denver got called for two penalties involving 12 men on the field, and Nate Irving lined up in the neutral zone on a punt attempt which gave SD a key first down and ate up more clock in the 3rd quarter. Just inexcusable all around.

3) I said Denver's offense was due for a bad day, and they indeed had a bad night. Four straight possessions ended in punts from the second quarter to the third quarter. They just didn't seem in sync and they couldn't run the ball at all.

4) San Diego scored a touchdown right before the half and right after the half to turn a 10-10 game into a 24-10 game. Usually when that happens, the team that gave up those points has a hard time winning.

5) It was a bad loss by the Broncos but it isn't the end of the world. Denver is still 11-3 and has already clinched a playoff berth. They still have the tiebreaker over KC due to their season sweep. On Sunday night after Denver routed the Titans, everyone had them as the #1 seed and the team to beat in the AFC. By Friday morning, all I heard was how this game was going to kill the Broncos chances at a Super Bowl run, and everyone was talking about how the Pats will get the #1 seed, how Cincy would beat Denver in the playoffs, and how KC will now win the AFC West. Stop it please! Everyone slow down. There is still a lot of football left and a lot will be decided between now and the end of Week 17.

6) By the way if all these experts want to jump off the Denver bandwagon for the playoffs, that is fine by me. I wouldn't want to play Denver if the Broncos are considered a longshot or underdog to make it to the Super Bowl.

7) At 11-3, Denver heads to Houston to take on the Texans next Sunday (12/22) at 100pm EST. Hopefully, the Broncos will regroup and get healthy for the final two games of the year. Also, root for Miami against the Pats and the Raiders against the Chiefs this week.

Last Week's Record: 6-9-1
Overall Record: 102-97-11
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

ATLANTA (-5) over Washington: Too much drama in Washington for me.

TAMPA BAY (+6) over San Francisco: Home dogs have been live this year. Interesting game but watch out for the Bucs.

Arizona (-2) over TENNESSEE: The Cards are still on the bubble of the playoff picture, but they are trotting along and keeping pace.

New Orleans (-6) over ST.LOUIS: Although they are on the road, at least it is in a dome for the Saints.

Seattle (-7) over NY GIANTS: The only way the Giants have a chance is if the Seahawks totally fuck this game up.

CLEVELAND (+1) over Chicago: Bears go back to Jay Cutler, which means the Browns defense will get after it.

INDY (-5) over Houston: The Colts haven't played well in over a month. They right the ship this week.

JACKSONVILLE (+2) over Buffalo: Break up the Jags! They are the second best team in the AFC South right now.

New England (-1) ove Miami: No Gronk, no problem for the Pats. Look for a classic statement game from Brady this week.

MINNESOTA (+6) over Philly: The Vikings are still playing hard, and they will keep this one close. It still feels like it is going to be Philly at Dallas for the NFC East title on SNF in Week 17.

CAROLINA (-9) over New York Jets: Geno Smith on the road against a good defense? No thanks.

OAKLAND (+6) over Kansas City: The Chiefs will win, but the Raiders will keep it close until the end.

Green Bay (+7) over DALLAS: No Aaron Rodgers, but this line seems a little too high. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Packers actually win this game. You just can't trust the Cowboys.

PITTSBURGH (+3) over Cincy: Everyone loves the Bengals to come out of the AFC right now. Pittsburgh won't go down without a fight.

DETROIT (-4) over Baltimore: Tough game for the Ravens, and I just don't think they can handle the Lions in the dome. Take the Lions to get to 8-6.

Broncos-Charger TNF Pick

This is going to be a tough one for Denver. I don't have a good feeling about this game, and here is why: First, Denver's defense is banged up, and they aren't good enough to shut down anyone else's offense right now. Here comes Philip Rivers, and he has been on a tear all year long. He played really well in the 2nd half of their first meeting back in November. There was a point that the Broncos defense couldn't stop him. Second, the Broncos and their offense are due for a letdown game. How many weeks in a row can this offense just carry this team? At some point, they are going to have an off day. It might be this Thursday and the weather will be cold once again. Finally, the quick turnaround from Sunday's win over the Titans to getting ready for a Thursday night game against a division rival might be too much for the Broncos to handle right now. They are banged up every week, and even Peyton Manning needs the extra days to get ready for the next game, and this week they don't have that. This game scares the hell out of me. I think the Broncos get upset at home.

San Diego (+10.5) over DENVER

Final Score: Chargers-34 Broncos-30

Broncos Rally Past Titans and Clinch Playoff Berth

What a weird game for the Broncos on Sunday. Denver defeated the Titans 51-28 at home to clinch a playoff berth for the third straight season. It was certainly an up and down game. It was a frigid and cold day in Denver, and it was very similar to the type of day Denver had when they hosted the Ravens in the playoffs last year. John Fox returned from his heart surgery, and he proceeded to go for it three different times on offense. That was very un-Fox like to say the least. Also, Peyton Manning basically told all the reporters to shove it regarding his ability to play in cold weather. The Broncos fell down early again for the second straight week, and once again they were able to rally. The officials took away two Denver touchdowns after reviewing them, and I still think both were scores. Finally, the Broncos couldn't put the Titans away until late in the game even though Denver racked up over 550 yards of offense and ran 90 plays. In any event, the Broncos got the win and now they move closer to getting the division title and a bye in the playoffs.

Here are my quick thoughts and observations about the game....

1) Broncos defense continues to give up big plays. I know that they are banged up in certain spots, but this is the second straight week that they dug themselves a hole. Kayvon Webster continues to get picked on, and he was again taken to school on the Titans first drive which resulted in an early 7-0 lead.

2) Great response by the Broncos offense. Manning leads them right back down the field as they convert two 4th down plays. Sweet pick play as Manning hits Wes Welker for a 1 yard touchdown and a 7-7 tie.

3) For the second straight week, the Broncos give up a big return on a kickoff. This time, Leon Washington almost returns one the distance, and Chris Johnson scores on the next play for a 14-7 Titans lead. Shonn Greene busted another run early in the 2nd quarter, and the Broncos were suddenly down 21-10. I think John Fox should have went for it on 4th and 3 from the Titans 40, but he elected to punt and pin them deep. Unfortunately, it didn't work out, and the Titans went right down the field on the Broncos.

4) From that point on, the Broncos offense completed dominated the game. Montee Ball and Knowshon Moreno carried the load the next couple of series with big runs. You could make a case that outside of Manning, Moreno might be team's offensive MVP. He is definitely the heart and soul of this team right now.

5) Beautiful throw and catch from Peyton to Julius Thomas on a fade route for an 8-yard score to make it 21-17 late in the 2nd quarter.

6) Key sequence in the game near the end of the half: Denver's defense forces a 3 and out, and the Broncos get the ball back right before the half. Manning hit Jacob Tamme with a small gain, but Tamme was able to get out of bounds and set up Matt Prater for a 64-yard field goal attempt right before the half ended. Congratulations to Matt Prater as he entered the record books with the record longest field goal after hitting a 64 yarder before the half. Most importantly, it cut the Titans lead to 21-20 and Denver was getting the ball back to start the 2nd half.

7) What a great throw by Manning to Demaryius Thomas in the back of the endzone to give Denver a 27-21 lead. It was a bullet and it was perfectly timed.

8) Von Miller reasserted himself this week, and he forced a fumble of Ryan Fitzpatrick on the next series. Terrence Knighton actually caught the ball in mid-air and advanced it a few yards. Big turnover by the Broncos defense.

9) Once again Denver leaned on Ball and Moreno on the next drive, and it was capped off by Moreno's  1-yard touchdown run to give Denver a 34-21 lead.

10) You simply can't trust this Denver defense. The Titans come right back and hit a 41-yard bomb to Justin Hunter to cut the Denver lead to 34-28. Omar Bolden got sucked up from the safety spot on that play. My question is: Why the fuck is Bolden out there to begin with?

11) Jacob Tamme has stepped up the last three weeks, and he has made some big catches. He did it again in the second half this week. Julius Thomas was back in the lineup, and he finished with 5 catches and 35 yards with a touchdown, but he still doesn't look healthy.

12) After the 3rd quarter, Denver had over 30 minutes in time of possession, and they amassed 366 yards.

13) Sick hit by Nate Irving on the ensuing kickoff with Denver up 37-28.

14) Great strip by Miller on Chris Johnson early in the 4th. Broncos recovered at the Titans 32. That was a another huge sequence in the game.

15) The play of the day was Peyton Manning's perfect 20-yard strike to Eric Decker to make it 44-28. Decker ran a post-corner-post route, and Manning threw it with velocity and perfect timing. Another just beautiful throw by Manning. He killed the Titans all day on the seams and verticals down the middle of the field.

16) I loved the Broncos attacking style even up 44-28 late in the game. They went for it on 4th down again and Moreno converted. That play set up Ball's 5-yard touchdown run to effectively end the game and put Denver up 51-28.

17) The offense was on fire once again. Forget about the critics of Manning in cold weather because he was unstoppable. He finished 39-59 for 397 yards and 4 touchdowns. It was like he was trying to prove a point to everyone out there. This was a huge step for this offense to play that well in those frigid conditions.

18) Another big outing for many of the players on that Broncos offense. They ran 90 plays and accumulated 551 total yards. Decker finished with 8 receptions for 117 yards and 1 touchdown. Demaryius Thomas had 7 catches for 88 yards and 1 touchdown, and Wes Welker had 5 catches for 61 yards and a touchdown before he left the game with another concussion. Moreno had 14 carries for 78 yards and a touchdown, and Ball had 15 carries for 77 yards and a touchdown. On defense, Von Miller led the way  one sack, one tackle for loss and two forced fumbles.

19) Denver clinched a playoff berth for the third straight season, and they one step closer to winning the AFC West and getting a first-round bye. There is a lot left for them to do to get there, and it won't be easy as San Diego comes to town on Thursday night.

Week 14 Picks!

75% of the NFL season is done. All that remains of the regular season is the final four weeks. As the season comes to a finish, the playoff picture appears to come into focus. On paper, it begins to look very clear, but in reality it won't finish the way. The way it looks now in the AFC and NFC will be different when the playoff field is set after the games wrap up on December 29th. I can go way back and look many different scenarios where wild and crazy things happened that affected the playoffs down the stretch. Here are three end of the year situations that come into my mind that remind me that nothing is set in stone just yet with four weeks to play. The first one comes from 2008. The Broncos were 8-5 and the Chargers were 5-8 with three games left to play. Denver needed just one win or a Chargers loss to win the AFC West and eliminate SD from the playoffs. We all remember what happened: Denver lost two in a row, and San Diego won two games on the road, and the Chargers finished off the Broncos with a Week 17 win in San Diego to win the division. I will never count out any team after seeing what happened in '08. The second situation occurred just a year later in 2009. People forget that Denver was 8-4 under Josh McDaniels with four games to go. They were seemingly in the driver's seat for at least a wild card berth. The Jets were 6-6 at that point of the year. Denver lost their last four games which included home losses to Oakland and Kansas City, and the Jets won three out of their last four games to get in the playoffs. The Jets were left for dead after 12 games, but Denver couldn't close it out, and the Jets swooped in and made the playoffs. The third situation was last year. This time it involved teams already in the playoffs. Houston was 11-1 after 12 games, and they seemed like a lock for the #1 seed in the AFC. New England and Denver were both 9-3, and it looked like Denver was going to end up as the #3 seed and no bye in the first round because they lost to both the Pats and Texans during the season. What happened next was unexpected. New England won three out of their last four games, but their one loss was at home to a good Niners team, and the Patriots finished 12-4. Houston lost three out of their last four games. One of those games they lost was at home to Minnesota, and they lost their Week 17 game to the streaking Colts on the road. Denver won their last four games, and the Broncos finished 13-3 and the #1 seed, while the Pats and Texans both finished 12-4 and ended up the 2 and 3 seeds respectively. Recent history has shown that although there are only four games left, there is a lot of decide and the playoff picture is not what it appears to be in Week 14. Onto the picks for Week 14....

Last Week's Record: 8-8
Overall Record: 96-88-10
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

Kansas City (-3) over WASHINGTON: The Chiefs have lost three games in a row, but they still are in good shape to get the #5 seed in the AFC. The one thing that came out of those three loses was that Alex Smith played well. That bodes well for them down the stretch. Take KC and the points on the road. I would be shocked if they lose this game.

BALTIMORE (-5) over Minnesota: If this game was in Minnesota, then I would be all over the Vikings. Give the Vikes credit for this gutty win over the Bears last week. At 6-6, the Ravens are in control of the #6 seed in the AFC, but their schedule gets tough after this week. They go to Detroit, host New England, and travel to Cincy to finish the season. They need this game badly, and they will get it.

NEW ENGLAND (-10) over Cleveland: Easiest game on the board to pick this week. The Browns don’t even know who is going to start because Brandon Weeden might miss the game with a concussion. The Browns defense will be valiant for a while, but the Pats and Tom Brady will grind them out and win convincingly.

GREEN BAY (Pick) over Atlanta: It looks like Aaron Rodgers won’t play again this week, and the Packers are floundering at 5-6-1. If they can just win this game, then their faint playoff hopes could be alive if they get Rodgers back for the final three games. I’ll take them here to win a close one in frigid Lambeau.

NY JETS (-2) over Oakland: Do you really trust Geno Smith and that Jet offense right now? There is no way you can at this point. The Raiders aren’t any good, but I have liked some of the things I have seen out of Matt McGloin, and they can be feisty enough to win this game outright on the road. With that said, I do think the Jets will find a way to win this game. This might be ugly, but the Jets will win a close game.

Indianapolis (+7) over CINCINNATI: Las Vegas has really been down on the Colts the last few weeks, but I think this line is too high here. Can’t you see Andrew Luck driving the Colts for a last minute touchdown to send this game to overtime? I can. By the way, this matchup of two 8-4 teams will have tremendous impact on the playoff picture in the AFC. The winner has the inside track on the #3 seed.

Detroit (+3) over PHILLY: I have to admit I wasn’t a big fan of Nick Foles, but his performance the last few weeks has been quite remarkable. At 7-5, the Eagles are in the thick of the NFC playoff race, and the Lions come to Philly at 7-5 and leading the NFC North. This is a huge game, and a great game in the early window. I have a feeling that the Lions will find a way to win this game on the road. I look for a little magic from Matt Stafford and Calvin Johnson once again. This game will probably be close because basically of the Lions games have been close this year.

PITTSBURGH (-3) over Miami: The Steelers can navigate their way into the playoffs at 8-8 with some help from the Dolphins and Ravens. That first step starts with a win over the Dolphins this week. This is another game to watch this week because if Miami wins, then they can really have a legitimate shot and getting the last wild card in the AFC. A Steeler win gives them some hope. Look for Pittsburgh to win a close one at home.

TAMPA BAY (-2) over Buffalo: Meaningless game at this point. Take the Bucs at home.

St. Louis (+7) over ARIZONA: I have been riding the Cardinals all year long, so this is a tough one for me, but I think the Rams are a good play here. At 7-5, the Cards still have a lot to play for, but they get tripped up this week by the Rams.

SAN DIEGO (-3) over New York Giants: This is the second easiest game of the week for me to pick. The Giants aren’t a good team at all, and they make a cross-country trip to San Diego to take on the 5-7 Chargers. I think the Chargers roll and keep their playoff hopes alive.

SAN FRANCISCO (-2) over Seattle: This could be a letdown game for Seattle. After their convincing win over the Saints on Monday Night Football, they have pretty much locked in the #1 seed in the NFC. They could afford to lose this game on the road, and it wouldn’t kill their homefield hopes. Take the Niners at home who need the game more.

NEW ORLEANS (-3) over Carolina: I know the Panthers are really good on defense, and they have won eight in a row, but this would be a very difficult task for them to go into New Orleans and win outright. It might be a good game into the fourth quarter, but I can’t see the Saints losing to them at home.

Dallas (+1) over CHICAGO: Can you trust the Cowboys on the road? They played well enough to beat the Giants two weeks ago on the road, but they have to do it again on Monday Night Football. This game will be tough, but I think it will be a statement game for the Cowboys. The Bears blew an awful game at Minnesota last week, and I think they are on their playoff lifeline. Take the Cowboys as underdogs on the road.

Tennessee (+12) over DENVER: Here is the problem with this game for the Broncos: It is going to be freezing in Denver on Sunday. The high for the game might only be something like 15 degrees. That is a bad combination for Peyton Manning and the Broncos offense. They just aren’t equipped to play in such cold weather. I hate to say it, but with conditions like that the Broncos could be in some trouble against an unfamiliar opponent.

Final Score: Titans-27 Broncos-24

Week 14 TNF Pick

Houston (-3) over JACKSONVILLE: What an awful game this Thursday night. In a game that will be pretty hard to watch, I'll take the Texans on the road over the Jags to snap their 10-game losing streak and avoid a sweep at the hands of the Jaguars in the process.

Broncos Rally To Best Chiefs 35-28

The Broncos and Chiefs had a huge showdown on Sunday in Arrowhead Stadium with the AFC West lead on the line. Both teams came in at 9-2, and the winner would have a clear path to the division title and possibly the #1 seed in the conference. The game itself was more entertaining than the prior contest these two teams played a few weeks back, and the Broncos had to rally from a 21-7 deficit to win the game 35-28. The game was a classic Peyton Manning game as he finished the game with 5 touchdown passes to take control of the game. With the win, the Broncos are now 10-2, and control the AFC West with their sweep of the Chiefs. It was as big of a win the Broncos had all season, and it will be one of those signature wins when the season ends. Here are my thoughts and observations about the game…..

1)    What a fast start to the Chiefs. They go right down the field on the opening drive, but Wesley Woodyard bailed out the Broncos with a huge interception of Alex Smith in the endzone. That was a tremendous play by him to save Denver on the opening drive.

2)    After that interception in the endzone, the Chiefs completely dominated the game. Also, Denver was lucky to survive this onslaught, and if they didn’t have Peyton Manning as their quarterback, then they would have lost this game convincingly.

3)    Here were the next few drives after that redzone pick: Interception by Manning, KC drives for a touchdown, a Manning to Eric Decker bomb for a touchdown, a KC kickoff return for a touchdown, another Manning pick, and another Alex Smith touchdown pass for a 21-7 KC lead. This game could have turned out very bad for Denver after that start.

4)    A key point in the game was when Dexter McCluster fielded a punt at his own 3 and was tackled immediately. The Denver defense forced a punt and they were able to get the ball back to Manning and the Denver offense. The Broncos scored on the next drive to cut the lead to 21-14.

5)    The story of this game after the early deficit was Manning. He was vintage Peyton. He finished 22-35 for 403 yards with 5 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. The real story here was how well he threw the ball down the field. Manning’s throws were on target, crisp, and just perfectly thrown each time. It was another clinic put on by Manning, and it will shut up some of his critics for at least a week or two.

6)    How about Eric Decker? He had somewhat disappeared the last month, but yesterday he was tremendous. He routinely beat Marcus Cooper, and Manning found him every time, and Decker finished with 8 receptions for 174 yards and 4 touchdowns. It was a great performance. The best part was how he was constantly able to get behind Cooper and the Chiefs secondary. Each of Decker’s four touchdown passes were pretty unique. The first one was a 41-yard catch on a post with a perfect throw from Manning. The second one was a 37-yarder on another play action pass by Manning. The third one was a skinny post from 15 yards in which Manning zipped it between two defenders, and the fourth one was a fade in which Decker beat Cooper off the ball and Manning put the pass in the only spot he could. All four plays were a thing of beauty.

7)    Montee Ball was also key in this game with 117 yards on only 13 carries. Ball made some big runs during the stretch in which Denver scored touchdowns on four out of five possessions. His 28 yard run late in the game put the game away for the Broncos. We need a running game in these big games, so it is always a good sign to get one of our backs running well.

8)    The Denver defense continues to boggle my mind. They are about as streaky of a group as I have seen in a while. The bottom line is that everytime I think they are playing consistent, they seem to look really bad in big spots. On Sunday, after giving up a few scores early, they settled down and forced five straight punts. Up 35-21, they then let the Chiefs go down the field and score another touchdown to make it 35-28. On the last drive of the game, they let KC move the ball from their own 8 yard line to the Broncos 13 before Mike Adams broke up a fourth down pass.  Chris Harris played his best game of the season, and I thought that Von Miller was spotty. Malik Jackson filled in nicely for Derek Wolfe, and Wesley Woodyard played pretty well too. It seems like one week one guy plays great, but someone else doesn't. Champ Bailey looked really rusty coming back from injury, and DRC was out with a shoulder injury, so the secondary was pretty banged up. Just like their first meeting, the Chiefs helped out the Broncos by dropping a lot of passes. I just don't trust this defense. Everytime I start to feel good about them, they disappoint me and get beaten like a sieve. 

9) By the way, how about Kayvon Webster's awful attempt at knocking down a pass on the Chiefs last drive? It looked like Rahim Moore from last year's playoff game all over again. Can the Broncos defensive backs coach work on playing the ball better with these guys?

10) Overall, it was a huge win. It gives Denver essentially a two-game lead over KC in the West because they have swept them. It was a fun game to watch. It was a big game on the road in Arrowhead Stadium to finish off Thanksgiving weekend. Jim Nantz and Phil Simms were doing the game in the main doubleheader window on CBS. It was just one of those big games late in the season that you get so pumped for. This win will hopefully propel the Broncos to the #1 seed and homefield advantage throughout the playoffs. 

Week 13 Picks!

Last Week: 7-6-1
Overall Record: 88-80-10
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

INDY (-3) over Tennessee: The Colts have been bad the past few weeks, but I think they get on track this week. At 7-4, a win over the Titans here will all but lock up the AFC South, and the Colts will roll with a big home win.

Jacksonville (+9) over CLEVELAND: Why not take the terrible Jags getting 9 points on the road? When Brandon Weeden is involved, you can't trust the Browns as home favorites.

Tampa Bay (+8) over CAROLINA: You have to be impressed with how the Bucs have played the last month. They will probably lose this game to the Panthers, but I think this game will be close.

Chicago (+1) over MINNESOTA: Bears at 6-5 desperately need a win to stay with the Lions in the NFC North. I see them getting that win this week on the road.

PHILLY (-2) over Arizona: Fun game in the NFC playoff picture. The Cards are a dangerous team right now, but I think Philly continues the hot hand and gets a win late. This feels like a 23-20 game either way.

NY JETS (-1) over Miami: The Jets and Geno Smith have struggled the last two weeks, but I like this matchup for a few reasons. First, the Jets defense will be able to get after Ryan Tannehill and the Dolphins offense. Secondly, the Jets are good at home, and it will be a cold day in the Meadowlands which will play into their favor.

Atlanta (+4) over BUFFALO: The Falcons have to win another game this year right? I'll take them over the Bills in Toronto. By the way, the Falcons could end up with a top-5 pick in next year's draft, and be right back in the hunt in 2014.

SAN FRANCISCO (-7) over St. Louis: The Rams are playing feisty, but I think the Niners will take care of them at home. Look for SF to gut out a win and move to 8-4.

New England (-7) over HOUSTON: The Pats are riding the momentum of their 24 point comeback win over the Broncos last Sunday night. The Texans have lost nine games in a row after starting 2-0. The Pats will bury Houston on Sunday and push that streak to 10.

SAN DIEGO (-1) over Cincy: Interesting game in the AFC. I think the Bengals will get to 10 wins and win their division, and my money is on the Chargers on getting the 6th seed right now even though they are 5-6. Look for a SD win in a crucial matchup.

WASHINGTON (+1) over New York Giants: What a dud game for NBC's Sunday Night Football this week. Both teams are toast as far as the playoffs are concerned, so I'l take the Redskins at home.

New Orleans (+7) over SEATTLE: Great game on Monday Night Football. The winner gets the inside track on the #1 seed in the NFC. I know how good the Seahawks are at home, but I got a feeling that Drew Brees will find a way to pick apart that Seattle secondary, and find a way to win this game outright.

KANSAS CITY (+5) over Denver: This line is way too high. Think about these things as Denver heads to KC this week: First, the Broncos are coming off an emotional loss at New England on Sunday night. The game went into overtime, so now the Broncos have to head back out on the road and go play KC in noisy Arrowhead. Second, Denver has many concerns on the injury front. Julius Thomas, Champ Bailey, Knowshon Moreno, and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie are all listed as questionable for this game. Kevin Vickerson is out for the season and Derek Wolfe didn't make the trip because he is in the hospital after suffering seizure-like symptoms. This just doesn't seem like a game that the Broncos are going to win. I have a bad feeling about this one.

Final Score: Chiefs-31 Broncos-21

Thanksgiving Picks!

DETROIT (-6) over Green Bay: Detroit comes in at 6-5 after a bad home loss to Tampa Bay. I am a little worried about the Lions right now. I think that Jim Schwartz's stock as a solid NFL head coach is coming into question right now. They desperately need this game on Thursday. The Packers come in at 5-5-1 after a tie at home with the Vikings. Matt Flynn will get the start after his performance off the bench last week. Aaron Rodgers isn't ready to return yet, but I think that this might be a tough spot for the Packers. Take the Lions and the points at home.

Oakland (+10) over DALLAS: The Cowboys will win this game, but this has the feeling of close one. Call it a hunch, but I think the Raiders will play well enough to keep this game competitive for a little bit. I think the Cowboys will play flat after their emotional 24-21 win over the Giants in the Meadowlands last week.

Pittsburgh (+4) over BALTIMORE: My head tells me that the Ravens will win the game, but I feel like rooting for the Steelers, so I will pick them on Thanksgiving night. Both teams come in at 5-6, and they are both tied for the 6th seed in the AFC Wildcard race. These games are always close, and this one should be no different. It is definitely a fun game to watch to cap off the Thanksgiving holiday.

Broncos Blow 24-0 Lead To Pats in Crucial Loss

Up 24-0 at the half, the Broncos were staring at the possibility of being the #1 seed in the AFC. On a cold,  blistery night in Foxboro, Denver had forced and recovered three fumbles on the Patriots first three possessions on their way to building a commanding 24-0 lead at the half. In a matter of moments during the third quarter, the Pats completely erased the Broncos lead and stormed back to take the lead. After Denver rallied to tie up the game at 31 late, the game headed to overtime. It was only natural that the game would end with a miscue on a punt. Wes Welker never called off the return team to watch out for the errant punt, and the ball hit Tony Carter and the Pats recovered. A few plays later, Stephen Gostkowski hit the game-winning 31 yard field goal, and New England won 34-31 in a game that could have lasting effects for both teams. It was certainly a tale of two halves. It was one of the worst regular season losses in Broncos history. It was a bitter pill to swallow for the Broncos, and it will be hard to fathom how this game slipped away. Here are my thoughts and observations on the game…

1)    You can’t ask for a better start to the game than what Denver had. All three fumbles were really nice plays by the Broncos and they were able to recover all three and convert them into points. Von Miller’s 60 yard fumble return was the first score, then Miller followed it up with a strip sack of Brady, which Terrence Knighton recovered and returned it to the NE 10 yard line. Knowshon Moreno followed that up with a 2 yard touchdown and the Broncos had a stunning 14-0 lead.

2)    After the third fumble was recovered by Danny Trevathan, the Broncos had a chance to make it 21-0, but a key sack on 2^nd and goal by Rob Ninkovich and the Broncos had to settle for a field goal and a 17-0 lead. It is amazing how settling for a field goal could change the outcome of a game.

3)    The Broncos defense played great early on, and not only forced turnovers, but they were able to force punts by the Pats. After a NE punt, the Broncos went 70 yards, and Peyton Manning capped off the drive with a 10 yard touchdown pass to Jacob Tamme to make it 24-0. The best part of the drive was Denver converted a 3^rd and 20 when Manning dumped a pass off to Montee Ball for 31 yards to get the first down.

4)    I have to admit at 24-0 I thought the game was probably over at that point. I already started thinking about how the Broncos could have basically locked up the #1 seed with this win. Little did I know how the rest of this game would play out.

5)    Maybe there was an omen for the second half on the last play of the first half. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie tried to intercept a meaningless Tom Brady pass at the end of the first half and in the process injured his shoulder, and that injury knocked him out of the game. The worst part about the play was that the pass wasn’t even close to the endzone and it was a harmless throw at the end of the half.

6)    The Pats came out in the second half and went right after Kayvon Webster, who replaced DRC. The Pats went right down the field and Brady found Julian Edelman for a 5-yard touchdown and they cut the lead to 24-7. The momentum had shifted, but I wasn’t too worried yet.

7)    I officially became worried on the Broncos next series when Montee Ball fumbled, and the Pats recovered at the Denver 32. A few plays later, Brandon Bolden scored to make it 24-14. You could just feel the entire game shift at that point. Right then and there I knew we were in a dogfight.

8)   A Brady to Edelman bomb set up the next touchdown, and a quick Manning interception set up the Pats at the Denver 30, and two plays later Edelman was leaping into the endzone with a 28-24 lead. It was a stunning turn of events and now the Broncos were trailing in a game they should be running away with.

9)   After a New England field goal to make it 31-24, Denver took over at their own 20 with just over seven minutes remaining. Give Manning credit because he put a drive together to tie the game. He hit Demaryius Thomas on an 11 yard touchdown throw to tie the game at 31 with 3:06 to go. It was a crucial drive for Manning and the Broncos into the wind.

10)  Bill Belichick made the decision to kickoff in overtime and take the wind at his back, and he was proven to make the right call. I felt that Denver struggled more going against the wind than the Pats did, and the win really played a role on punts and kicks. The wind affected the final punt of the game, and Welker’s non “Poison” call helped caused the turnover and the outcome. What a fitting way for this game to end for the Broncos. A bone-headed play on a punt ends the Broncos night. 

11) There are so many aspects to look at in this game. One that I feel came out of Sunday night's game was Manning's play in the wind and cold weather. This game had 20 mph winds gusting all night long, and the temps dipped into the teens with the windchill. I know Manning had some suspect play in the game, but most of the time the Broncos were able to run the ball with Knowshon Moreno, so Manning didn't even have to throw the ball. Moreno rushed for 224 yards on 37 carries. The Broncos completely dominated the game up front, and Manning wasn't really relied on to throw the ball. Plus, with the game on the line Manning drove them 80 yards for the game-tying score with 3 minutes left into the wind. I know Manning's is not totally healthy, but I think the whole "Manning can't win in the cold" is going to be overrated in the end.

12) The whole Brady-Manning duel wasn't exactly a classic shootout that everyone envisioned. Brady completely outplayed Manning in the second half, but in fairness to Manning the Broncos running game really took the forefront for their offense in this game. 

13) This is as bad of loss that you can have in the regular season, but let's put things in perspective. The Broncos still have a good shot at getting the #1 seed in the AFC. KC lost to SD on Sunday, and even if Denver loses to KC next week, they can still win the division if KC can lose one more game the rest of the way which is viable since they host Indy in Week 16 and travel to SD in Week 17. Also, Denver still is a game ahead of the Pats in the standings as well. Plus, throw this game out of the window if the Pats and Broncos meet again in the playoffs. The conditions were a nightmare, and the Broncos injuries really affected the outcome in the 2nd half. Was it a bad loss? Yes, but there is still some light at the end of the tunnel for the Broncos. Every Super Bowl champion has to deal with some adversity during the course of a long NFL season, and this is just another example of that for the Broncos.

14) Denver heads to KC with both teams tied at 9-2 and the AFC West lead is on the line. Denver lost Kevin Vickerson for the season with a hip injury, and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Knowshon Moreno are questionable for the game. Champ Bailey and Julius Thomas look like they are on track to play this week. KC is dealing with injuries too. Justin Houston and Tamba Hali are both questionable to play this week, and if they are not 100% then that will really help Denver's chances to win game.

Week 12 Picks

We have hit Week 12 of the NFL season and the plot will start to thicken on the road to the Super Bowl. Every game is ultra important at this time of the year, and you will probably hear the phrase "You want to be playing your best football around Thanksgiving" about 10,000 times this weekend. As far as this weekend's slate of games, nothing is bigger than the Broncos and the Pats on Sunday night in Foxboro. Peyton Manning and Tom Brady renew their rivalry for the 14th time. Two of the five greatest quarterbacks of all time (Elway, Unitas, and Montana round out the list) battle in a familiar spot: Both of their teams are fighting for the top spot in the AFC. It is amazing how when these two guys played each other in 2001 that they would still be the playing at a high level in the year 2013. Manning switched from the Colts to the Broncos, but this matchup still doesn't lose its' appeal. It is a treat to see these two guys continue to play well, have their teams in contention, and garner the spotlight week after week. Enjoy Sunday night because there won't be too many more of these games in the future. On to the picks for Week 12....


Last Week's Record: 5-8-2
Overall Record: 81-74-9
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

DETROIT (-8) over Tampa Bay: The Lions had a terrible loss at Pittsburgh last week, and they are now tied with the Bears for the lead in the NFC North. I can't see the Lions laying an egg this week at home to the Bucs. Look for a solid bounce back win for Detroit at home.

HOUSTON (-10) over Jacksonville: I know that the Texans shouldn't be favored at home by 10 over anyone at this point, but they have to find a way to take care of business over the Jags. I look for a big day by Case Keenum and the Texans end their horrendous eight-game losing streak.

Minnesota (+5) over GREEN BAY: Can't you just see Adrian Peterson just going off in this game? Without Aaron Rodgers, the Packers have struggled like we thought they would. Take the Vikes and the points.

San Diego (+5) over KANSAS CITY: This feels like a 23-20 game either way. I will be rooting hard for the Chargers to take down the Chiefs, and I think they can find a way to do it.

MIAMI (+4) over Carolina: Home underdogs have been a solid pick the NFL this year, and I have a feeling the Dolphins will play well this week. The Panthers defense is probably the best in the league next to KC, but I think Miami finds a way to pull the upset.

Pittsburgh (+2) over CLEVELAND: The Steelers could actually get to 5-6 with a win this week. I am pulling for the Steelers because I would like to see their Thanksgiving night game at Baltimore actually mean something.

ST.LOUIS (-1) over Chicago: I am waiting for the game where Josh McCown implodes and this might be the week. I like the matchup with the Rams defense. This smells like a 13-9 win with the Rams getting either a special teams touchdown or a defensive touchdown to put them over the top.

BALTIMORE (-3) over New York Jets: The Ravens are still in the race at 4-6, and a win here will set them up for a huge showdown with the Steelers on Thanksgiving. I think they take care of business with a late rally and win it.

Tennessee (-1) over OAKLAND: If Jake Locker was healthy, then I think the Titans would have been the 6 seed in the AFC this year. Now, they are stuck with Ryan Fitzpatrick at the helm for the rest of the way. I got to think they will get the win in Oakland this week though.

Indy (+3) over ARIZONA: The Cards are a surprise team at 6-4, and I have ridden them all year long, but this seems like the week that the Colts don't get down early and control the game from the outset.

NY GIANTS (-2) over Dallas: Watch out because here come the G-Men! The Giants are on a four game winning streak after starting the year 0-6. The problem is they have beaten all crummy teams and crummy QBs in that stretch. It will be really cold and windy in New Jersey on Sunday, and the Cowboys are really banged up. It will be close, but I think the Giants will win and get to 5-6.

San Francisco (-5) over WASHINGTON: The Niners have lost two in a row, but they get back on track on Monday night. How about that RG III-Mike Shanahan relationship? Maybe the Redskins will fire Shanny, and he can come back to Denver as the offensive coordinator next year.

Denver (-2) over NEW ENGLAND: All week the only thing that I heard about was how the Pats never lose two games in a row, and the weather is going to be so cold for Manning and the Broncos that the Pats will take care of business at home. Everyone-and I mean EVERYONE- is picking the Pats this week. With that said, I am going the other way, and I am taking the Broncos to buck the trend and win a huge game in Foxboro.

Final Score: Broncos-28 Pats-25

Broncos Defeat Chiefs in SNF Showdown

The Broncos and Chiefs squared off on Sunday night in Denver for the highly anticipated battle between the two top teams in the AFC. The 9-0 Chiefs headed to Mile High as a decided underdog and many people were skeptical if KC could hang with the Broncos. The outcome won’t dispel many of those questions surrounding the Chiefs going forward. Denver’s 27-17 victory wasn’t the most convincing win as a Bronco fan, but it certainly sent a message that the Broncos are still the team to beat in the AFC West. Denver’s win puts the Broncos at 9-1 and tied with the Chiefs for first place in the division. Their game with each other two weeks from now in Arrowhead will be very significant in determining who actually does win this division. For now, let’s focus on the Broncos big win on Sunday. Here are my thoughts and observations from the game….

1)    Both teams started out pretty slow on offense. KC punted the first three series they had the ball. Denver only moved the ball a little on their first drive and they settled for a long field goal and a 3-0 lead. It seemed like both teams were nervous on offense to start the game.

2)    The game turned on the following sequence: On a 3^rd and 1 from their own 27, Denver fumbled when Peyton Manning and Montee Ball fumbled an exchange and KC recovered. On the very next play, KC fullback Anthony Sherman caught a pass in the flat, but got crushed by Danny Trevathan and the Broncos recovered a fumble to give them the ball right back. On a 3^rd and 5, Manning then hit Demaryius Thomas on a 70 yard go route to put the Broncos in business deep into KC territory. Manning hit Julius Thomas on a sweet 9 yard touchdown pass to give Denver an early 10-0 lead. That sequence of plays really changed turned this game around early.

3)    Right before the half, there was another sequence. Denver moved the ball into KC territory, but the drive stalled. Denver attempted a 52 yard field goal to extend the lead to 20-10, but naturally Matt Prater missed it. If KC could get some points there, then this game could be different. The Denver defense rose up to the challenge, and Shaun Phillips made a big-time play with his sack of Alex Smith to thwart the series with no points given up. 

4) By the way, Prater really sucks at long kicks before the half and in pressure situations. He hadn't missed a kick this year until that point, but I won't trust Prater all year-especially after last year's debacle against Baltimore in the playoff game.

5) At the half, I felt pretty good about this game, and the Broncos were getting the ball to start the second half, but give credit to the Chiefs and their defense because they forced three straight Bronco punts, and it kept the game close.

6) On the flip side, the Broncos defense shut down the Chiefs as well. It was like a tennis match with each defense holding serve. 

7) The play of the second half was when Denver had the ball with under six minutes to go in the 3rd quarter, and Manning and the Broncos faced a 3rd and 3 on the KC 47. Manning waited in the pocket forever and finally found Eric Decker on a crossing route for 33 yards. That play set up a Montee Ball 8 yard touchdown run to give Denver the comfortable 24-10 lead. That pretty much put the game away from there.

8) When you look at this game the first thing that stands out was how well the Broncos protected Manning. He got rid of the ball really quickly, but even when he had to wait in the pocket, he simply wasn't touched. Plus, the Broncos really kept the running game a high priority. It was important for them to stick with the run game, and they did that as much as they can all game long.

9) The win over KC was a statement game for the Broncos, but the road to the #1 seed in the AFC and the AFC West title is still very far away. The Broncos will travel to Arrowhead on December 1st, and it will be a very tough test for Denver to knock off the Chiefs in that venue on their home turf. Also, don't forget that the Broncos must head to Foxboro to take on the Patriots in another huge game next Sunday night. There is a lot of work still to be done for the Broncos and their playoff situation, but at 9-1 Denver still has a great chance to get the top seed in the AFC. 

Week 12 TNF Pick

New Orleans (-7) over ATLANTA

Week 11 Picks

The marquee game of the season is upon us as the 9-0 Kansas City Chiefs head into Denver to take on the Broncos. It is a great matchup of two division rivals with great records so late in the year. The rivalry between these two teams dates back all the way to the original AFL Western Division days. People nationally don't realize how good of a rivalry this is. It is underrated because both teams haven't been a contender in the same season together in a long time. As a Broncos fan my whole life, I really despised the Chiefs more than the Raiders. The reason why is because the Chiefs were always more of a threat to Denver's AFC West hopes than the Raiders were for the majority of the John Elway era. How good is this rivalry? Well, think about this: In 1994, NFL Films released a VHS tape called "John Elway's Greatest Comebacks." It was a great montage of some of Elway's greatest moments in the fourth quarter. The team that was victimized the most by Elway and all those comebacks: The Chiefs. The most improbable of Elway's comebacks was in 1992. The Broncos were down 19-6 with just over two minutes left in the game at the old Mile High. Elway threw two touchdowns passes in the final two minutes to shock the Chiefs 20-19. Later that year, the Broncos were 8-7 and facing the Chiefs in a winner take all AFC West showdown in the last game of the year at Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs blitzed Denver and won the division. Denver missed the playoffs as a result and fired head coach Dan Reeves shortly after. That is usually how it goes with this rivalry. The Broncos win in Denver, and the Chiefs win in Arrowhead. One team wins the first game, and the other team gets revenge in the rematch. In 1997, Denver opened the season at home with a 19-3 win over the Chiefs. The two teams met in Week 11 with the Broncos at 9-1 and the Chiefs at 7-3. The Chiefs won on a Pete Stoyanovich 54 yard field goal at the buzzer to win the game 24-22. That game propelled the Chiefs to the AFC West crown, and the Broncos settled for the wild card. In the Divisional playoffs that year, the two teams met again. Denver won a tough, grind-it-out type of game 14-10 and it propelled Denver to their first Super Bowl title. In 2003, both teams were 4-0 when they met in Week 5. It was the game of the year at that point in the season. Denver led the Chiefs 23-17 when Dante Hall took a punt 93 yards on the 4th quarter for a touchdown as KC won 24-23. I can still see the three block in the backs that weren't called on Hall's return by the way. Naturally, Denver got revenge later in the year with the help of Clinton Portis' five rushing touchdowns en route to a 45-27 win in Denver. This rivalry hasn't really seen a big-time game like that since that year. In 2011, the Broncos and Tim Tebow shocked the Chiefs 17-7 in Arrowhead in a game where Tim Tebow completed on 2 passes. The Chiefs got revenge in Week 17 when Kyle Orton returned to Denver to help them knock off the Broncos. This game will be fun to watch, and it does lose a little because they play in Arrowhead in two weeks, but it is nice to have the Chiefs and Broncos battle it out once again with the AFC West on the line in one of the biggest games on the NFL calendar. I'll save my pick for later in the column. Onto the rest of the picks for Week 11....

Last Week's Record: 6-7-1
Overall Record: 76-66-7
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

Atlanta (PICK) over TAMPA BAY: The Falcons have to win a game again at some point right?

NY JETS (-1) over Buffalo: The Bills are all banged up on offense, and the Jets have that "6th Seed" look to them right now. Take the Jets and the low number on the road.

Detroit (-2) over PITTSBURGH: The Steelers are done for 2013, and now you have rumors of Big Ben leaving town after the season. The Lions are the better team, so I'll stick with them once again.

Washington (+5) over PHILLY: The Eagles really stink at home. They haven't won a home game since early last season. Until they prove otherwise, I'll go against them again at home.

San Diego (-1) over MIAMI: The Dolphins season got destroyed by the whole Martin-Incognito saga. At 4-5, they are reeling and come off a loss to the Bucs on Monday night. The Chargers are the better team, and I look for them to take care of business on the road this week.

Baltimore (+4) over CHICAGO:  I don't like what I see out of the Bears right now. Jay Cutler is out, and I know that Josh McCown has played well in his absence, but he still is Josh McCown. I like the Ravens in this spot as an underdog.

CINCY (-6) over Cleveland: I would be shocked if the Bengals lose this game. I am not buying into the 4-5 Browns making a playoff run at all. Take the Bengals at home.

HOUSTON (-7) over Oakland: The Raiders have to travel two weeks in a row to another time zone, and Terrelle Pryor might be out. The Texans are in disarray, but I think they break their 7 game losing streak this week at home.

Arizona (-7) over JACKSONVILLE: The Jags finally got a win last week over the Titans, but here come the Cards. Quietly, the Cards are 5-4 and are playing good football. They could be in play for the 6 seed in the NFC. I'm sticking with them again this week.

Minnesota (+13) over SEATTLE: The Seahawks will win this game, but I think the Vikings keep it close. Can the Vikings just admit that Christian Ponder isn't that bad and gives them the best chance to win? Give the kid a break. Seattle hasn't really played that great lately either.

NEW ORLEANS (-3) over San Francisco: The Niners passing game looked pretty awful last week. I think the 49ers will be okay and make the playoffs, but this week is a tough spot for them. We know how good the Saints are at home, and I think they continue to make their claim as the frontrunner in the NFC.

Green Bay (+5) over NY GIANTS: The G-men are just not that good. Even at home with the Packers coming in without Aaron Rodgers, I just can't trust the Giants. Don't be surprised if Green Bay wins the game outright.

CAROLINA (-2) over New England: We finally get a really good Monday night game. Fascinating matchup, and you have to love how well the Panthers on playing on defense. This is the biggest game in Carolina since the 2008 season when they won the NFC South. Take the Panthers and that defense at home in front of a raucous crowd.

Kansas City at Denver: We all know the key to this game. Can the stout KC defense shut down the Broncos offense and a gimpy Peyton Manning? We know how the Chiefs can rush the passer and how much Denver has had trouble protecting Manning lately, but don't you think the Broncos spent all week looking at that too. Don't you think Denver and Manning will have something up their sleeve? A lot of people are picking the Chiefs to keep it close or win it outright, but you know what? Fuck that! I'm going with the "Sheriff" and the Broncos at home on Sunday Night Football to make a statement. I'm taking the Broncos and not looking back.

DENVER (-7) over Kansas City

Final Score: Denver-30 KC-17

TNF Pick!

Indy (-3) over TENNESSEE: The Colts are coming off an awful loss to the Rams at home. The Titans lost at home to the hapless Jaguars. In the process, the Titans lost QB Jake Locker for the season with a foot injury. This will be a close game because the Colts are on the road on a Thursday, but look for the following to occur late in the fourth quarter: Andrew Luck will make one or two plays to give his team the lead, and Titans quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick will throw at least one killer interception to end the Titans hopes for a comeback win.

Broncos Get Key Win over San Diego

The Broncos were able to hold off a San Diego comeback and get a key divisional game victory on Sunday 28-20. The Broncos now stand at 8-1, and they head into their huge AFC West game at home vs. the 9-0 Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday night. Denver's victory over the Chargers will be remembered for the injury that Peyton Manning sustained to his right ankle. It is the same ankle that has bothered him for quite some time. This time the injured was aggravated late in the game as the Broncos were trying to run out the clock and win the game. Outside of the injury, the Broncos played a pretty up and down game. They scored a touchdown three plays into the game, and they scored on three consecutive possessions before the half and right after the half. At 28-6, the Broncos looked like they were on cruise control, but the game swung on a strip sack of Peyton Manning in the 3rd quarter, and the Chargers were able to get back into the game. Thankfully, the Broncos were able to hold on and run out the clock late, and Denver got their eighth win of the year. Here are my thoughts and observations on this week's game...

1) San Diego's first drive was killed by a holding call on Ryan Matthews big run. Holding calls absolutely kill drives, and this was a killer for the Chargers to start the game.

2) Peyton Manning hit Julius Thomas in the flat, and Thomas goes 74 yards down the sideline for a touchdown three plays into Denver's first possession. Manning has killed teams the last two years on those passes in the flat and this one was another example of that.

3) Huge stop by Denver's defense on a 3rd and 2 on the Chargers second drive to hold them to a field goal and a 7-3 lead.

4) The Denver defense made key stops on third down throughout the entire first half.

5) Big throw by Manning to Eric Decker down the sideline for 34 yards in the second quarter. Manning followed up that throw with a perfect throw to Demaryius Thomas for a touchdown on an out route. Manning threw the ball before Thomas was even in his break, and it gave him enough time to have room to run and stretch the ball over the goaline for a 14-6 lead.

6) Here was the big sequence in the game: The Broncos get a big sack by Derek Wolfe on a 3rd down deep in Denver territory. Then, Nick Novak missed a short 37 yard field goal. Denver then comes down and gets a score. Manning hit Demaryius Thomas on a beautiful ball down the sideline, and he followed it up with a perfect pass to Thomas for a touchdown to make it 21-6 right before the half. Thomas ran a great route where he faked doing an out route and cut back inside and the ball was right on the money.

7) Right out of halftime, Denver came right back down and got another touchdown to make it 28-6. Manning hit Demaryius Thomas on one of those classic WR screens that they run every week. Thomas weaved his way 34 yards for a touchdown to give the Broncos what looked like a insurmountable lead at the time.

8) The play that turned this game around was when Manning was strip sacked and fumbled deep in Denver territory. San Diego scored on the ensuing drive and cut the lead to 28-13. I felt that Denver went into a little bit of shell on offense after that, and they got really sloppy with their execution at that point.

9) Shaun Phillips continued to play big for Denver, and he got a big sack of Rivers late in the third quarter to thwart a drive.

10) Denver's defense played well, but they gave up some horrible passes in the fourth quarter. On a 3rd and 13, they let Eddie Royal get behind them and the Chargers converted that possession into a touchdown to cut the lead to 28-20 with 10:42 to go. At this point, I became extremely nervous that Denver was going to blow this one.

11) The Broncos were able to grind out at least two first downs on the next series. Give Knowshon Moreno credit because he continues to run hard and effectively every week. It looked like Decker got held on a key third down incompletion, and Denver was forced to punt and give the ball back to SD with 4:45 to go.

12) Von Miller made the play of the game with a huge, diving sack of Phillip Rivers on a 2nd and 13. Miller played really well in the game, and he was really dominant in the run game. That sack set up a 3rd and 16, and Rahim Moore made a big-time hit to break up a pass and force a punt.

13) Give the Broncos offense credit for going for the win and being proactive to get the first down and win the game with Manning. Manning hit Demaryius Thomas for a first down pass to ice the game with 1:45 to go. On that play, Manning got hit low and re-injured his ankle. It looks like he will play this week against KC, but the ankle looks tender and it will be an issue going forward for Manning and the Broncos.

14) It was the first time all year that Denver didn't get 30 points in a game. They were held to 28, but they still were able to hold on and get a big win on the road against a division rival. Their defense made the stops that they needed to make, and this was a good win overall. Hopefully, Manning can sustain this injury and continue to play well as the Broncos march down the stretch. Next week, the Broncos host the Chiefs in the biggest game of the season in the NFL. 9-0 KC comes to Denver to take on the 8-1 Broncos in the matchup of the year.