2013 NFL Predictions-Part 1: The NFC

Before I unveil my 2013 NFL predictions, I need to go back and review what happened in the 2012 NFL season. Since the advent of the Salary Cap, the NFL has seen unforeseen "parity" between their teams. Usually, on average six teams that made the playoffs the year before will drop out, and six new teams will make the playoffs. Last year completely flipped the script. A total of eight teams returned to the playoffs from the year before. That was by far the highest number since the NFL realigned in 2002. Also, three out of the four AFC and NFC Championship teams returned back to the title games (NE, Baltimore, and SF.) In the AFC, all four teams in the Divisional Round were the same as the year before (NE, Baltimore, Denver, and Houston.) There might not be any significant reason as to why that happened, but I would expect there to be more changes to the playoff picture this year, and I think it will go back to the way it was in the past. In my predictions, I added six new teams to the playoff mix, and I removed six teams that made it the year before. I also added two teams that lost at least 10 games last year into the playoff mix this year. You can't just assume that status quo will continue for this year. You have the think that the NFL will get back to its' crazy and unpredictable ways in 2013, so I took some chances with my picks and had a little fun along the way. Up first is the NFC......

NFC EAST

1-New York Giants
What I Like: The Giants missed the playoffs last season at 9-7, and every time the Giants are doubted, they usually rise up to the challenge. This year feels like one of those years where the G-Men say "Fuck it, we are going to make up for last year's shitty second half performance and take back the division." Their schedule gives them one break: They have a three game home stand in November (Oakland, Green Bay, and Dallas), and they don't travel at all from October 27th to December 1st. They got Victor Cruz locked up to a long-term deal, and now Eli Manning has Cruz and Hakeem Nicks ready to go for this offense. The addition of TE Brandon Myers was a very intriguing move, and adding T Justin Pugh in the first round of the draft should help solidify their offensive line.  The Giants offense should be able to put up plenty of points if they stay healthy. Defensively, you have to expect Jason Pierre-Paul to have a bounce back season, and the addition of Cullen Jenkins just feels like the right fit on that defensive line. A lot of these players have won a Super Bowl with this organization, and it seems like they are on track to get things going in that direction once again.

What I Don't Like: The Giants always seem to start out 6-2 and then fade after midseason. It is especially concerning for a team that features a franchise quarterback and a Hall of Fame caliber head coach. This team did lose some key veterans this offseason (Chris Canty, Ahmad Bradshaw, Osi Umenyiora, and Martellus Bennett), and you never know how new players will step up to fill those roles. The NFC East is always a demanding grind, and the Giants have to deal with a new coach in Philly, RG III in Washington, and the desperate Cowboys. The schedule isn't too forgiving either. They open at Dallas and host the Broncos in Manning Bowl III. They have back-to-back road games at Carolina and Kansas City to finish September. Also, the Giants face the NFC North this year, which is an improved division, and they have to play the Seahawks, who are one of the elite teams in entire league.

Prediction: 11-5 and winners of the NFC East

2-Dallas Cowboys
What I Like: The Cowboys played in the final regular season game two years in a row with the division on the line, and they lost both times. Aren't they due to break through and make the playoffs this year? Not much has changed on their roster, and they locked up Tony Romo with a long-term extension. Romo is one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL, and there should be plenty of motivation for him to get the Cowboys into the playoffs and on a deep run. The talent is certainly there with the likes of Dez Bryant, Jason Witten, Miles Austin, and DeMarco Murray. The addition of C Travis Frederick should help their offensive line, and the return of Sean Lee should help their defense. Maybe the disappointment of the last two seasons will catapult the 'Boys back into the playoffs for the first time since 2009.

What I Don't Like: It is the same story every year for this franchise. They have loads of talent, but they just can't get it done in crunch time. It is basically the same group of players from the past few years, but maybe this is just a group that simply can't get over the hump. I like Jason Garrett's demeanor as a head coach, but he is very spotty in big games as a game manager. Some of his decisions the last few years have been pretty weak. Their schedule isn't friendly either. Outside of the competitive NFC East, they have to deal with a road slate that includes games at Kansas City, Detroit, New Orleans, and Chicago. This team could definitely make the playoffs and win the division, but it feels like another year where they come up short.

Prediction: 8-8 and second in the NFC East

3-Washington Redskins
What I Like: The Redskins won the division last year on the play of Robert Griffin III. He proved to be worth all of those draft picks that Mike Shanahan gave up to go get him. RG III was sensational as a rookie, and it sounds like he is responding well to his offseason rehab to repair a knee he tore up in last year's playoff loss to the Seahawks. RG III will probably end up playing in the season opener against Philly. The other key component to this team was RB Alfred Morris. Morris was a beast in that pistol attack, and the Skins can keep defenses off balance with their Zone Read option game. Their defense is solid, and many of the key players on that unit will be back this year from injury. If RG III is healthy, this team will be in every game, and they will be very dangerous.

What I Don't Like: Unfortunately, RG III and his health will be a determining factor for the Redskins all year long. Although he will be back for Week 1, there is no guarantee that he will be healthy all year. Teams are going to do their homework on ways to stop him and that offense. They might not totally stop him, but they might find ways to slow the Redskins down. They are not going to be able to sneak up on people this year and surprise them. This schedule is very tough, and it includes trips to Denver, Green Bay, Minnesota, and Atlanta. They also host Chicago and San Francisco. It looks like one of those years where the breaks don't go their way, and the Skins take a step back in 2013.

Prediction: 8-8 and third place in the NFC East

4- Philadelphia Eagles
What I Like: Chip Kelly is the new head coach in Philly, and the guy is a program builder. He wins where ever he goes, and he will be a breath of fresh air for the Eagles. He inherits a team with talent. The Eagles still have LeSean McCoy, DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, and Brent Celek. If they can get Michael Vick going again, then they may be onto something. They addressed their offensive line by drafting OT Lane Johnson with the number four pick in the draft. I like the pick of TE Zach Ertz from Stanford in round two as well. The addition of Conor Barwin at OLB and NT Isaac Sopoaga should also help out their defense. With Kelly running the show, the element of surprise will be there, and they might enough to catch some teams off guard, and the Eagles could have a bounce back season on their hands.

What I Don't Like: As much as I like Kelly as a coach, I am a little leery about how his style will work in his first NFL season. He can't expect to run his Oregon offense at this level and be successful. If Vick is shot, then the options at QB are Nick Foles and rookie Matt Barkley, who fell to Philly all the way in the fourth round of the draft. Questions at QB are not what you want in your first year as a NFL head coach.  They will be in the mix for awhile in the NFC, but I just think it is too much to ask for Kelly to get this turned around so quick. Look for the Eagles to make their leap a year from now.

Prediction: 6-10 and last in the NFC East

NFC NORTH
1-Green Bay Packers
What I Like: It is pretty simple with the Packers: They have Aaron Rodgers and the rest of the league doesn't. In this day and age of the NFL, the passing game rules, and if you have an elite guy like Rodgers, then your team is in really good shape every year. Although they lost, Greg Jennings and Donald Driver, the Packers still have Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, James Jones and Jermichael Finley as their core group of weapons around Rodgers. I liked the moves to select RBs Eddie Lacy and Johnathan Franklin in the draft as well. Defensively, they struggled at times last year, but when you have an offense like Green Bay does, you can afford to be less than stout on the defensive side of the ball. Put it this way: Their defense only has to focus on getting red zone stops and turnovers. Leave the rest to the offense. Unless injuries get in the way, look for the Packers to right in the middle of the contenders to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.

What I Don't Like: The departures of Charles Woodson, Greg Jennings, and Donald Driver amongst other veterans could leave the Packers without some key veteran leadership and locker room guys. You always get a little nervous when key veterans are let go to make room for some young talent. Their defense was exposed in the playoffs last year, and that has to concern them a little heading into this season. Their schedule is not easy either. They have to deal with the AFC North including a trip to Baltimore and Cincy. Also, they draw the NFC East out of division. The Packers will have tough road games at the Giants and Dallas. They open the season at San Francisco then host the Redskins, so the early slate could be tricky. Finally, should we worry about Aaron Rodgers and his broken friendship with Ryan Braun affecting his play?

Prediction: 11-5 and winners of the NFC North

2-Detroit Lions
What I Like: The Lions were a mess a year ago. They were 4-4 at the midway point, then they collapsed and finished the season on an eight game losing streak. This year could be different. They seem like a team that can bounce back from last year's disappointment. The main reason is they have loads of talent led by Matt Stafford and Calvin Johnson. Adding Reggie Bush was a really solid move for their offense. Ndamukong Suh took a step back last year, but they added Ezekiel Ansah in the draft, and that move could really spark their pass rush again. This team didn't handle winning well last year, and now after being knocked back to reality, the Lions could be ready to make a run at the playoffs once again. There is too much talent for them not to make a run.

What I Don't Like: You always have to be concerned about a team that fails to live up to expectations and falls flat like the Lions did last year. My biggest concern is attributed to their head coach. Jim Schwartz did a nice job rebuilding this team two years ago, but last year he was a reason why they didn't perform well. He needs to step up his game as well. I worry that Schwartz might be in over his head, and that would worry me from a Lions perspective. Their schedule is difficult early. They have four road games in their first six contests (Arizona, Washington, GB, and Cleveland.) If they falter early, they might not recover.

Prediction: 10-6 and a wild card berth

3-Chicago Bears
What I Like: When you finish 10-6, then there really isn't concern to blow up the roster and start over. The Bears did miss the playoffs last year, but they still won 10 games, so this team isn't rebuilding. New head coach Marc Trestman will try to generate more out of the Bears offense and Jay Cutler. Cutler has been surrounded with some really good players at his disposal. Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffrey, and Matt Forte are back and should help Cutler and Trestman get this offense going. They added Martellus Bennett at TE, and that gives Cutler another weapon. The Bears always seem to need help on the offensive line and they addressed that by drafting Kyle Long to help them at guard. Four out of their first six games are at home (Cincy, Minnesota, New Orleans, and the Giants), so they might be able to get off to a solid start. If Cutler finally reaches his potential, then watch out.

What I Don't Like: Losing a guy like Brian Urlacher from a leadership standpoint would definitely concern me. Plus, as well as the Bears have been on defense, age might just catch up to them at this point. As talented as guys like Cutler and Marshall are, they seem to always be around coaching changes. How many times to we have to hear about Cutler and new offensive schemes and coordinators? Maybe if he played more consistently at times, they wouldn't be going through all those changes. Cutler and Marshall have never been on a team together and led that team to the playoffs. In fact, Cutler has been in the league since 2006, and has played in only two playoff games during that span. Perhaps Cutler and Marshall just don't have what it takes to get it done.

Prediction: 8-8 and third in the NFC North

4-Minnesota Vikings
What I Like: You have to love that the Vikings have Adrian Peterson. What Peterson did last year was simply incredible. If he stays healthy, then he is one of five best players in the NFL, and that will give the Vikings a chance to win some games. They added Greg Jennings to bolster their receiving corps, and their defense was solid. If Christian Ponder can continue to progress, then the Vikes could have a chance to contend for a playoff spot once again. The Vikes want to control the game with Peterson, and let their defense create turnovers. It worked a year ago, and it could work again.

What I Don't Like: The Vikings surprised everyone last year on their way to a 10-6 season and playoff berth, but they won't sneak up on anyone this year. Ponder still scares me, and I don't trust him. If he falters, then the Vikings will turn to Matt Cassel. That's not what you want to hear if you are a Vikings fan. Their schedule isn't easy because they are in a very tough division. They have to deal with the NFC East and the AFC North. They have trips to the Giants, Dallas, Baltimore and Cincy. They also open up with two road games (Detroit and Chicago.) The Vikings look like a team that exceeded expectations a year ago but will fall flat this year.

Prediction: 5-11 and last in the NFC North.

NFC SOUTH
1-New Orleans Saints
What I Like: The Saints were clearly battered by the bounty scandal, and it translated into a subpar 7-9 season last year. Enter the return of head coach Sean Payton, a smoother offseason, and a refreshed franchise with a bit of chip on its' shoulder, and the 2013 New Orleans Saints have the classic makings of a bounce back team. The Saints also have Drew Brees, who continues to play at a very high level. Look, there is no doubt that the Saints will improve on their 7-9 record just simply based on the fact that Payton returns. The Saints will be playing with a chip on their shoulder all season long, and they will be a very dangerous team come playoff time. Their schedule is pretty favorable because they match up with the AFC East, and the NFC West. They get layups with Miami, Buffalo, and Arizona at home, and they get to host the Niners as well. This has the makings of big year down in the Bayou.

What I Don't Like: The Saints defense was atrocious last season, and defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo got the boot in a surprise move. His replacement was none other than Rob Ryan. Ryan is the most overrated defensive coordinator in the NFL. The guy gets so much face time on television, and his defenses never seem to line the right way, they always seem confused on what coverage they are in, and they never get a stop in a big spot. I know they made some moves to shore up that unit (Drafting Kenny Vaccaro in the first round of the draft), but Ryan scares me. At least they have that offense to help them out.

Prediction: 12-4 and winners of the NFC South

2-Atlanta Falcons
What I Like: I was very skeptical of the Falcons and Matt Ryan going into last season, but Ryan and this team won me over. Watching Ryan develop into a elite level QB last year makes it very difficult for me to bet against them this year. Their trio of Julio Jones, Roddy White, and Tony Gonzalez is on par with any other receiving corps in the NFL. I really like the move to add RB Steven Jackson as well. Their schedule gives them a nice gives them a nice boost. They don't have to travel from September 29th through October 20th. Those home games include New England, the Jets, and Tampa Bay with a bye week thrown in. This organization is well run from ownership all the way down to head coach Mike Smith. I just can't see them faltering this year. They'll use the NFC Championship loss as motivation all year long.

What I Don't Like: I wonder if the scars from blowing a 17-0 lead at home in the NFC Championship to San Francisco will be hovering over this team all year long. Realistically, the Falcons should have been in the Super Bowl last year, but they collapsed and lost a brutal game. Can the Falcons use it as motivation or will they be swallowed up by that defeat all season long?

Prediction: 10-6 and a wild card berth

3-Tampa Bay Buccaneers
What I Like: I think Greg Schiano is going to be a really good head coach, and I was impressed by him last year in a 7-9 season. The big move in the offseason was acquiring Darrelle Revis in a trade with the Jets. If Revis is healthy, then he still is the best CB in the game. Having Revis and S Dashon Goldson in the same secondary should vastly improve that pass defense. I know Josh Freeman is up and down, but I like him more than other people, and in a contract year, I think you can expect the best from Freeman in 2013. Throw in Doug Martin and Vincent Jackson and this is a team on the rise, and they only face four teams that made the playoffs in 2012. Look for the Bucs to be in the playoff hunt all season long.

What I Don't Like: They are in a tough division. No game is an easy one in the NFC South. The Saints will be much better, the Falcons are very good, and the Panthers are no slouch. The Bucs could have a good season and not even make the playoffs. If Freeman has a down year, then they are dead in the water.

Prediction: 8-8 and third in the NFC South.

4-Carolina Panthers
What I Like: The Panthers rebounded really well down the stretch last year. They won their last four games to finish the year at 7-9. I do believe that a strong finish can carry over to the next season. The Panthers look like a team that can fit that mold. If they can find a way to utilize Cam Newton the right way, then the sky is the limit for them and their offense. If Newton plays the way he is capable every week, then he can carry this team to a wild card spot. Don't forget about MLB Luke Kuechly. He had a really good rookie year, and he could be on his way to becoming one the game's best young linebackers.

What I Don't Like: Head coach Ron Rivera is shaky. Owner Jerry Richardson almost pulled the plug on him last year, and that can't give you a boatload of confidence in him heading into this year. As talented as Newton is, you have to worry about his mental makeup. You don't want your franchise QB to be a basket case, and Newton showed signs of that last year. If he is shaky and falters, then the Panthers have no chance of being competitive. Their division is very tough, and that could bury their chances of making a playoff run. Their schedule is manageable, but if they got bombed at home in Week 1 to Seattle, then their season could spiral out of control-especially with the Giants looming in Week 3.

Prediction: 6-10 and last in the NFC South.

NFC West
1-Seattle Seahawks
What I Like: The Seahawks finished really strong last season, and they were so close to advancing to the NFC Championship Game until Matt Ryan and the Falcons broke their hearts in the waning moments of the Divisional Round. The key to their run last year focused on QB Russell Wilson. After being a very average quarterback early in the season, Wilson caught fire in the second half and propelled this team to new heights. Of all the young QBs on the rise, Wilson is the most intriguing. You have the feeling that Wilson won't regress that much at all, and he will continue to get better. Put it this way: Wilson just seems to have the "It" factor. He could very well end up as a MVP candidate at the end of this season. There is also a lot of other factors that you like about this team. Pete Carroll's mentality seems to really rub off on this team. Marshawn Lynch continues to drive the running game, and their defense is very solid. They added Cliff Avril to their pass rush, and they feature one of the best secondaries in all of football with Richard Sherman, Brandon Browner and Earl Thomas. Throw in the best home field advantage, and Seattle is a legitimate NFC contender. You have to like their schedule. They open up at Carolina, home against the Niners, and home against Jacksonville. They finish with two home games against Arizona and St. Louis. Last year might have just provided us with a glimpse of how good this team could be in 2013.

What I Don't Like: What happens if Wilson doesn't play as well as he did last year? It could certainly happen. If Wilson struggles, then this team could find itself in some trouble. Perhaps the rest of the Seahawks opponents will go to town on preparing for Wilson, and his play will digress a little this year. Plus, new addition Percy Harvin has to undergo hip surgery, so who knows if he makes any contribution at all this year. A lot of people are high on the Seahawks, and that does open the door for them to disappoint. Maybe all that pressure gets to them, and they struggle at times. It is unlikely with that talent on the roster, but sometimes crazy things happen in a season.

Prediction: 12-4 and winners of the NFC West

2-San Francisco 49ers
What I Like: Jim Harbaugh is the best head coach in the NFL, and he has built a remarkable roster. Colin Kaepernick blossomed into a star last year, and the sky is certainly the limit for him and that offense. The Niners have talent in every facet of their team. They have weapons on offense (Vernon Davis, Frank Gore, and Anquan Boldin), a stout offensive line,  and great front seven players on defense (Patrick Willis, NaVorro Bowman, Justin Smith, and Aldon Smith). The team was built with an attitude, and plays nasty from start to finish. Getting to the Super Bowl last year should fuel them to get back and win it this year. They have played five playoff games in the last two years, so playoff experience is now in their favor.

What I Don't Like: Although he was very impressive in a small sample size, can Colin Kaepernick keep it up throughout the whole season? With his style of play, injuries could play a factor. Plus, what happens if defenses catch up to him and that offense this year. Losing Michael Crabtree to an Achilles injury was a big loss for them. Also, as good as their defense plays, their secondary seemed to be exposed in the playoffs last year. Losing Dashon Goldson can't help, and I would be very concerned about their secondary holding up throughout the year. Their schedule is tricky because they open up with four games against playoff teams in their first five: Green Bay, at Seattle, Indy, and Houston. Their schedule also features back-to-back road games twice. They should be good, and they should be in contention all year, but something tells me that they are going to regress this year. It might only be for one season, but I think the Niners surprisingly take a step back in 2013.

Prediction: 9-7 and second in the NFC West

3-St. Louis Rams
What I Like: Jeff Fisher has this franchise going in the right direction. People forget that they were 7-8-1 last year, and they beat SF once and tied them the other time. I loved their draft when they were able to get WR Tavon Austin and LB Alec Ogletree. They added LT Jake Long in free agency to solidify the offensive line. If you give Sam Bradford a chance, then he can prove to be the franchise QB they drafted a few years ago. Their defense is going to be their strong point, and it will not surprise me to see them ranked very high this year on defense. This is definitely a team on the rise. They will be a tough out each week.

What I Don't Like: They are stuck in a very tough division. Seattle and SF are two of the best teams in the entire league. It will be hard to jump into the playoffs when you have to play those teams four times a year. If Austin doesn't make an impact on WR in his rookie year, then you have to worry about their playmakers on offense. They lost RB Steven Jackson, and that can't help their offense either. In addition to their division, the Rams must contend with Houston and Indy in the AFC South, and they have to deal with the tough NFC South as well. Their final six games include the Bears, at SF, New Orleans, Tampa Bay, and at Seattle. The Rams might be a year away from contending the NFC West.

Prediction: 8-8 and third in the NFC West

4-Arizona Cardinals
What I Like: It is hard to remember that the Cardinals were actually 4-0 to start the season last year, and they were one of the surprising stories early on. Things crashed badly for them, and they finished 5-11. The Cards hired Bruce Arians as their new head coach, and you have to be inspired by that hire. If Arians is given a chance, there is some thought that he could actually turn this franchise around. As average as Carson Palmer has been the last season and a half, he is a significant upgrade over the Cardinals QBs from last year. Arizona also features one of most dynamic CB/Punt Returner in the NFL in Patrick Peterson. The only place the Cards can go is up, so it wouldn't be too shocking to see them get a little better this upcoming season.

What I Don't Like: They are stuck in a very difficult division, and the Cards are very far away from threatening the other three teams in the West. As good of a job that Arians did in Indy last year, there is still the chance that he is not going to be a great head coach, and he is the kind of coach that is better just being a coordinator. Their defense seems to be in a good spot, but their offense could really struggle even with the addition of Palmer at QB. In addition to their division, they have to face the NFC South which will give them trouble. There just doesn't seem a way that the Cardinals will be able to challenge for a playoff spot, and they look like one of the teams that could be fighting for the first overall pick in the 2014 NFL Draft.

Prediction: 4-12 and last in the NFC West

Quick NFC Recap:
NFC East
1-Giants (11-5)
2-Dallas (8-8)
3-Washington (8-8)
4-Philly (6-10)

NFC North
1-Green Bay (10-6)
2-Detroit (10-6)
3-Chicago (8-8)
4-Minnesota (5-11)

NFC South
1-New Orleans (12-4)
2-Atlanta (10-6)
3-Tampa Bay (8-8)
4-Carolina (6-10)

NFC West
1-Seattle (12-4)
2-San Francisco (9-7)
3-St. Louis (8-8)
4-Arizona (4-12)

NFC Playoff Seeds:
1-New Orleans-South
2-Seattle-West
3-NY Giants-East
4-Green Bay-North
5-Detroit-Wild Card
6-Atlanta-Wild Card

NFC Playoff Predictions
Wild Card Round:
3-NY Giants over 6-Atlanta (Giants beat the Falcons for the second time in three years in the Wild Card Round)
4-Green Bay over 5-Detroit (The Packers get to the Divisional Round for the fourth straight season)

Divisional Round:
4-Green Bay over 1-Seattle (The Packers upset the Seahawks and get revenge for last year's "Fail Mary" debacle)
2-New Orleans over 3-NY Giants (The Saints get back to the NFC Championship for the first time since 2009)


NFC Championship
1-New Orleans over 4-Green Bay (In an epic shootout, Drew Brees outlasts Aaron Rodgers, and the Saints return to the Super Bowl)