2013 NFL Predictions- Part 2: The AFC

Part 1 of the my 2013 NFL predictions covered the NFC. Here is my thoughts and predictions on the AFC..........

AFC EAST
1-New England Patriots
What  I Like: It is easy to pick the Patriots to win the division every year, but how can you really bet against Tom Brady and Bill Belichick? It just doesn't make sense to go against those two. After the disastrous offseason that the Pats had, many people are doubting them heading into the season. That will serve as motivation for both Belichick and Brady this year. With the addition of WR Danny Amendola to replace the departed Wes Welker, the Pats feel they made a move to could replace the production they got out of the Welker-Brady duo. Can you just see Amendola catching over 100 passes from Brady this year? Aaron Hernandez is in jail, and Rob Gronkowski is coming off four surgeries, but if Gronk is healthy, then he should still be a force in the passing game. Brady will find a way to incorporate one of the other TEs on the roster (Jake Ballard, Daniel Fells, or Michael Hoomanawanui) and make them effective. Also, don't be surprised to see some sort of contribution from the trio of Julian Edelman and rookies Aaron Dobson and Josh Boyce. Yes, the Patriots had a nightmare offseason. Yes, they might not be as good as they were the last few years, but with Brady and Belichick still in the fold, they will always be dangerous and have a chance. They might not be the top contender to go to the Super Bowl out of the AFC, but they should be good enough to win their division once again.

What I Don't Like: You can't lose Aaron Hernandez and Wes Welker on this offense and expect everything to be okay. Those losses coupled with the Gronkowski's injury status could end up dooming the Pats chances. You also have to wonder about RB Stevan Ridley. He had a really good season in 2012, but the last glimpse of him was when he got knocked out and fumbled the ball against the Ravens in the AFC Championship. As great as Brady is, you have to wonder if the lack of weapons will haunt him in a big game late in the year. Defensively, this team has been a question mark the last few years. Doesn't Belichick get a knock for not being able to build a really good defense in recent years? Their defense has let them down in key spots many times in the past, and I would be concerned about that unit once again until they can prove otherwise.

Prediction: 10-6 and winners of the AFC East

2-Miami Dolphins
What I Like: The Dolphins added many names in free agency, but the three that stand out the most are LB Dannell Ellerbe, WR Mike Wallace, and CB Brent Grimes. All three could have a major impact on this team, and it could propel them into the playoffs for the first time since 2008. They drafted Dion Jordan with the third overall pick in the draft, and they will use him as a compliment to DE Cameron Wake. The Dolphins defense looks like the real deal. QB Ryan Tannehill played really well at times last year, and he looks like he can take the next step in year two. Their schedule is tricky, but they have a stretch where they have five out of seven games at home from October 6th through November 24th.  It just feels like the Dolphins are primed for a breakout season, and in a weak division that could definitely happen this year.

What I Don't Like: The first thing that stands out is the fact that a lot falls on Tannehill's plate. If he struggles, then they are done. Also, who is going to take Reggie Bush's place? How will they replace LT Jake Long? These are all questions that could doom their offense. I am a little worried about Mike Wallace and his production. Will he be another player who fizzles as a big-time free agent signing? As I said before, their schedule is tricky, and it is very tough to start the season. Their first eight games include five games against teams that made the playoffs last season (at Indy, Atlanta, Baltimore, at New England, and Cincy). Throw in a trip to New Orleans in Week 4 and the Dolphins might have to hope to be just 4-4 at the midway point. There is a chance they get off to a slow start and won't recover.

Prediction: 9-7 and a wild card berth

3-New York Jets
What I Like: You can say a lot about Rex Ryan, and he hasn't done the greatest job as a head coach, but he can coach up a defense. You know his defense will play well each week. Muhammad Wilkerson is an emerging star, and they have Quinton Coples as a bookend to him on the other side. They added DT Sheldon Richardson in the draft, and David Harris is still there at ILB. Many people considered CB Dee Milliner the best corner in the draft, and he gets his chance to replace Darrelle Revis. The other thing to like about the Jets is that no one is giving them any chance to succeed this year, and that is when a team can be very dangerous. Injury concerns aside, it looks like they will go with Mark Sanchez to start the season. If they go to Geno Smith eventually, he might be able to catch fire a little bit and give them a spark on offense. He might not look ready in preseason, but sometimes rookie QBs can come in midseason and play well. It wouldn't surprise me one bit if the Jets are in the wild card mix throughout the season.

What I Don't Like: It all starts with the QB. Mark Sanchez is just not their guy anymore, and it is just a matter of time before he gives the job away to Geno Smith. Smith is a rookie and he fell to the 2nd round for a reason. The Jets might just have to give him the ball, and let him find his way through his rookie season, which can always be a tough grind. The other problem is that there is just a lack of talent on offense. Their offensive line isn't the same dominating group that it once was, and they lost one of their most reliable weapons in TE Dustin Keller. WR Santonio Holmes is their best WR, but it is uncertain if he will even be available to start the season on time as he recovers from a foot injury from last year. Their schedule is very difficult. They open up with Tampa Bay at home in the "Revis Bowl," head to Foxboro to take on the Pats in Week 2, host division rival Buffalo in Week 3, and travel to Tennessee in Week 4. From there it gets really tough. They have a five game stretch that includes at Atlanta, Pittsburgh, New England, at Cincy and New Orleans. They might play above their heads each week, but that still might not be enough to win any of those games.

Prediction: 8-8 and third in the AFC East

4-Buffalo Bills
What I Like: New head coach Doug Marrone will certainly add some fire to the franchise. If he is given the time, then he will turn this team around. C.J. Spiller has become a real weapon for this offense, and they need to get him the ball as much as possible. Stevie Johnson is still one of the best receivers in the AFC, and they should be able to move the ball consistently each week. Defensively, their line should return to form with a rebound year out of DT Marcell Dareus and Kyle Williams. If they get more production out of Mario Williams, then their defensive line can be a real force. I like how they addressed the QB position in the draft with E.J. Manuel. Marrone did a really good job with his QBs at Syracuse, so maybe this is a marriage that is going to work. If Manuel hits his potential, then the Bills have a chance to surprise some people. The Bills could be due since they haven't been to the playoffs since 1999.

What I Don't Like: The deck seems stacked against the Bills this year. The Pats are still better than them, and the Dolphins have improved a lot as well. They might have to start undrafted rookie Jeff Tuel to start the opener because of injuries to E.J. Manuel and Kevin Kolb. Their season will come down to QB E.J. Manuel. At some point, Manuel will be inserted as the starting quarterback. Even if he plays really well, you can't see the Bills going any better than 8-8. If he struggles, then they will have to deal with a rookie QB learning the NFL game, and it will be a rebuilding season with hope for the future. I think that Manuel will show some flashes of potential, but it might not be enough in Doug Marrone's first year.

Prediction: 6-10 and last in the AFC East.

AFC NORTH
1-Pittsburgh Steelers
What I Like: The Steelers are due for a bounce back season, and no one is picking them to make the playoffs this year. It seems that everyone has them behind Cincy and Baltimore, so that extra motivation will help get head coach Mike Tomlin's message across. Yes, I know they lost Mike Wallace, but the Steelers always seem to let a big name guy go, and they respond with other players that they develop. They would have been the 6 seed in Ben Roethlisberger didn't get hurt last year. Big Ben is so good, and he doesn't that the respect nationally. He is a legitimate franchise QB, and the combination of him and Tomlin make the Steelers formidable every year. Why should that change this year? I really liked their moves in the draft. OLB Jarvis Jones fell to them at #17, and he was touted as a top five pick all spring. Second round pick RB Le'Veon Bell will replace Rashard Mendenhall too when he comes back from a foot injury. Their schedule is very manageable. Here are their first seven games: Tennessee, at Cincy, Chicago, at Minnesota, at the Jets, Baltimore, and at Oakland. There is a really good chance they are at least 5-2 at that point. Their next three games include a trip to New England and home games against Buffalo and Detroit. They also finish with three out of four at home. The Steelers will be back in a big way once again in 2013.

What I Don't Like: Losing Mike Wallace will definitely hurt their offense. He was a such a weapon for them and Big Ben. I am a little concerned about their defense. Troy Polamalu is not the same player he was a few years ago. Ike Taylor is overrated as well. There always seems to be concerns about their offensive line, and Roethlisberger always seems to miss a few games in a season. Last year, his injury killed their season. Their division is very tough. Baltimore and Cincy are good teams, and Cleveland is on the rise, so those six games can go either way.

Prediction: 10-6 and winners of the AFC North

2-Baltimore Ravens
What I Like: Joe Flacco proved that he is an elite QB with his performance in last year's playoffs, and you should expect Flacco to play at a high level for most of the year. He still has Ray Rice, Bernard Pierce, Jacoby Jones, and Torrey Smith at his disposal. The Ravens got a break when they signed Elvis Dumervil after the fax debacle with Denver. Also, they made solid moves by adding Chris Canty and Marcus Spears. In the draft, the Ravens three guys that are going to contribute right away in the first three rounds. Matt Elam, Arthur Brown, and Brandon Williams are all going to make an impact this season. Plus, John Harbaugh is one of the five best coaches in the NFL. He will get this team prepared each week. They have basically no pressure in being the defending Super Bowl Champions, and no one expects them to repeat, so they can use that as motivation.

What I Don't Like: You can't replace Ray Lewis and Ed Reed both on the field and off the field. I know both of those guys were getting old, but their impact is hard to define or replace. Losing Dannell Ellerbe and Paul Kruger will certainly affect their front seven, and SS Bernard Pollard's impact is a huge loss as well. How many big hits did Pollard make in his time in Baltimore? I don't see Michael Huff as an upgrade in that department. Losing Anquan Boldin was also a big blow to the offense, and TE Dennis Pitta was lost for the season with a hip injury in training camp. It just seems like too many losses of key players for this team. They will be competitive and be in the race all season long, but I have a feeling the loss all of those players will eventually take a toll on this team. They are due for a down year since they have been in the playoffs every year since 2008. Besides I hate the Ravens so much, so I want to see them flop a year after winning the Super Bowl.

Prediction: 8-8 and second in the AFC North

3-Cincinnati Bengals
What I Like: They might have one of the most talented, young rosters in the entire AFC. They have put together some good drafts the last few years and it shows. Defensively, they are very tough. Their front seven is one of the better ones in the NFL. Geno Atkins is a dominant player at DT. We know about A.J. Green, but I like the idea of matching TE Jermaine Gresham with first round pick TE Tyler Eifert. If Andy Dalton comes into his own this year, then the Bengals can make a legitimate run in the AFC.

What I Don't Like: I am not totally sold on Dalton becoming a franchise QB just yet. He seems to play well against average defenses, but against a good defense he seems to struggle. If he struggles in big games, then they are going to be mediocre. I am not sold on Marvin Lewis as head coach. I know he has done a pretty good job in Cincy, but he scares me sometimes in this critical games. Also, their schedule is very difficult in spots. Their first three games are at Chicago, Pittsburgh, and Green Bay. From October 13th through November 10th, they only have one home game. Plus, they have to play Pitt and Baltimore in two of their final three games. Lastly, they are the Bengals, so just never know what you are going to get from them year to year. Look for a down year for Cincy.

Prediction: 8-8 and third in the AFC North

4-Cleveland Browns
What I Like: New head coach Rob Chudzinski and new offensive coordinator Norv Turner always have done a nice job with their quarterbacks and their offenses. That should definitely help QB Brandon Weeden this year. RB Trent Richardson is a beast, and he could have an impact like Adrian Peterson has with the Vikings. Their defense is very underrated, and they got a pass rushing specialist in the draft when they snagged Barkevious Mingo with the 6th overall pick. Their defense should keep them in a lot of games. If they can use the formula of feeding Richardson the ball, keeping Weeden from making mistakes, and playing good defense, they could sneak up on people and be in the wild card hunt.

What I Don't Like: They are stuck in a really tough division. Any way you slice it they are behind the other three teams in the North. I worry about Weeden and his weapons on offense. I just don't think they have enough playmakers to help them get over the hump. If Weeden stumbles, then they are in serious trouble. Their schedule isn't too bad, but it features three sets of back-to-back games on the road. Plus, they have trips to Green Bay and New England in there as well. The Browns are an intriguing pick, but they seem like a team that is a year away.

Prediction: 6-10 and last in the AFC North.

AFC SOUTH
1-Houston Texans
What I Like: The Texans benefit from being in weak division. If they were in the AFC North, then I would be a little worried about them this season, but they are in the South, so they can use that to get them into the playoffs. When you look at this team, their strength is in their defense. J.J. Watt sets the tone in the pass rush, Brian Cushing and Brooks Reed add to the LB corps, and Johnathan Joseph anchors the secondary. The addition of Ed Reed could potentially be a home run for them in big games this season. Arian Foster is the man that fuels the offense, and Matt Schaub got the monkey off his back after winning his first playoff game last year, and now the Texans could be primed for a big run. Their schedule is very friendly at times. After their game at Kansas City on October 20th, the Texans will have four homes games, a bye week, and one road game at Arizona on November 10th. That slate includes a three game homestand against Oakland, Jacksonville, and New England. Every year, a team gets hot at the right time and marches all the way to the Super Bowl. I could see that happening to the Texans this year.

What I Don't Like: I am a little worried about them offensively. Obviously, Arian Foster is a great player, but the key will be if they can find weapons to surround Andre Johnson. Plus, Foster is banged up heading into the season which is never a good sign. It is hard for rookie wide receivers to come in a make an huge impact early, and the Texans are looking for that in DeAndre Hopkins. Also, can their offense sustain over the long haul of a season? If a team takes away Foster, and their running game, then the Texans will have trouble catching up and winning those big games.

Prediction: 11-5 and winners of the AFC South

2-Indianapolis Colts
What I Like: Andrew Luck is going to be a superstar in the NFL, and he is the next big thing as far as QBs go. He was great last year as a rookie, and you know he is going to continue to get better. Luck could literally take this team on his back and win 11 games again. It is all about Luck in Indy now, and he is the main reason this team will be contending in the playoffs for the next 10 years. They have a pretty friendly schedule, and their two toughest road games are at SF and at Houston. It will surprise no one if they take the next step and win the AFC South outright.

What I Don't Like: The Colts were the surprise of the NFL last year, so they won't sneak up on anyone this year. They won so many close games last year, and that usually doesn't translate over the next season. They are bound to lose more games that are decided late this year. Luck may be better than he was last year, but that doesn't guarantee that the team will be better and that they will win 11 games again. Plus, one of the most underrated storylines going into this season is head coach Chuck Pagano. The Colts played well under interim coach Bruce Arians last year when Pagano was in the hospital. What if we realize that once the season gets going, Pagano isn't really a great head coach? It is certainly a question that has to be asked. The Colts could very easily play well this year and take the next step, but I have a feeling that regress just a little bit. Look for a down year in Indy.

Prediction: 8-8 and third in the AFC South

3-Tennessee Titans
What I Like: Every year in the NFL there is a team that has absolutely no business, rhyme or reason to make a surprise playoff appearance. Last year, the Vikings were that team. I could envision a scenario where the Titans could be that team. If Christian Ponder can get his team to the playoffs, then why not Jake Locker? Forget about Locker for a second, they have nice 1-2 punch with Chris Johnson and Shonn Greene in the backfield. They addressed their awful offensive line by adding OG Andy Levitre and drafted Chance Warmack in the first round. They added a minor piece in TE Delanie Walker too. I love the move that they added on defense by getting SS Bernard Pollard. Their defense was pretty bad last year, but the best defense is a good offense. If the Titans can control the ball on the ground and Locker limits his mistakes, then maybe they could surprise some people.

What I Don't Like: Their schedule does scare the shit out of me at points. They open up with two road games: at Pittsburgh and at Houston. They play Seattle and San Francisco back-to-back in Weeks 6 and 7. They also have the dreaded three-game road slate against Oakland, Indy, and Denver. If Locker struggles, then they are in deep trouble. Is their enough talent on defense to get key stops? It remains to be seen. They aren't as good as Indy or Houston, and anytime you have QB questions, that is never a good omen for a season. Look, they could be an ultimate sleeper team this year, but it is very likely to believe that the Titans will fall flat and bomb out with another losing season.

Prediction: 6-10 and third in the AFC South

4-Jacksonville Jaguars
What I Like: They have an owner who has the best mustache in all of pro sports! They have new uniforms and cool helmets that are two-toned! They drafted a LT in Luke Joeckel with the second overall pick in April's draft. Maurice Jones-Drew is still there. Things can't be as worse as they were last year when they went 2-14. Right?

What I Don't Like: When your QB battle is between Blaine Gabbert and Chad Henne then that is all you need to know about the Jaguars. Does anyone even know who they hired as their head coach? There really isn't much to like about the Jags, so just hope they suck again and move them to Los Angeles and get them out of the NFL purgatory.

Prediction: 2-14 and last in the AFC South

AFC WEST
1-Kansas City Chiefs
What I Like: Anytime you change your head coach from Romeo Crennel to Andy Reid that is a big upgrade. Anytime you chance your QB from Matt Cassel to Alex Smith that is an upgrade. Also, did you know that the Chiefs have five Pro Bowlers from last year's 2-14 season? The Chiefs turned the ball over like a JV football team last year. It was insane how badly they played all year long. You can't play that poorly two years in a row. Plus, things got so bad for the Chiefs that one of their players, Jovan Belcher, actually killed himself and his girlfriend during the season. This season stands to get better for the Chiefs. They also have a friendly schedule that includes the AFC South and out of division games against Cleveland and Buffalo. They have five home games out of their first eight games. The AFC West is winnable-especially with the Broncos beat up and dealing with the Von Miller suspension, so the Chiefs have all the makings of a team that makes that huge leap from one year to the next.

What I Don't Like: Getting Andy Reid to become the new head coach was an upgrade over Romeo Crennel, but Reid can get a little dicey in a big spot as the head man. He is good coach, but let's not confuse him with Bill Belichick. The same goes for Alex Smith. He is way better than Matt Cassel, but the Niners did get better on offense when they benched Smith in favor of Colin Kaepernick. I can't get over watching Smith unable to complete a downfield pass for basically an entire half in the NFC Championship against the Giants a few years ago. We will see if Smith and Reid's faults crop up at the worst time for the Chiefs this year.

Prediction: 10-6 and winners of the AFC West

2-Denver Broncos
What I Like: Peyton Manning feels comfortable and looks a lot healthier this year than he was last year. When Manning is feeling comfortable, then that is very dangerous for the rest of the NFL. Manning can still play at a high level, and he should be able to continue that this year. He has proven that when he is on his game, he is arguably the best QB to ever play. Denver's offense could be really lethal with the addition of WR Wes Welker. The trio of Welker, Demaryius Thomas, and Eric Decker is a pretty unstoppable force. Don't forget about a TE group that includes Joel Dressen, Jacob Tamme, and the emerging Julius Thomas. Ryan Clady will be back healthy from offseason shoulder surgery, and the Broncos offensive line is one of the best in the AFC. They have a manageable schedule with a weak division, the AFC South, and four out of their first six at home. Two tough road games on the schedule feature the Giants and Indy. You think Manning will be a little pumped up to go up against his brother and his old team? I think he will. As long as you have Peyton, you have a chance to make the playoffs.

What I Don't Like: The Broncos defense is a mess right now. Von Miller's six-game suspension to start the season is really going to hurt this team. Their defense will have a tough time recovering from his absence. Losing Elvis Dumervil to the Ravens was bad enough, but to not have Miller to start the year will be irreplaceable. Plus, the Broncos are so banged up on both sides of the ball. Champ Bailey is hurt, and he might not play Week 1. Their center situation is a mess, and there are real question marks   at their running back position. They might be putting too much on Manning's shoulder. This is a make or break year for the Broncos. Everyone had them in the Super Bowl about a month ago, and all that hype is never a good thing. The Broncos will be lucky and fortunate to be 3-3 after the first six games, and that might really hurt their chances this season. Things just don't look so rosy for the Broncos at this point heading into the 2013 season.

Prediction: 9-7 and a Wild Card Berth

3-San Diego Chargers
What I Like: I still believe that Phillip Rivers is a really good QB. The last few years have been rough on him because the talent around him has been depleted. If Rivers can get hot, then he could at least keep the Chargers competitive and in the wild card hunt all year long. They are in a weak division, and their schedule is favorable at the end. Four of their last five games are at home with Oakland and KC coming to San Diego to finish off the year.

What I Don't Like: They have been really hurt by injuries this offseason. Melvin Ingram was hurt during OTAs, and WRs Malcolm Floyd and Danario Alexander suffered really bad injuries in training camp. Their offensive line is still a question mark, and I'm not sold on Manti Te'o suddenly reinvigorating their defense. I like what Mike McCoy did as the Broncos offensive coordinator the last two seasons, but he had Peyton Manning last year, and the year before he had Tebowmania sweep through the nation. We'll see how he does as a first year head coach, but I have a reason to be skeptical. The Chargers seem like a team that might struggle a lot this year, and look towards 2014 as the year they turn it around.

Prediction: 6-10 and third in the AFC West

4-Oakland Raiders
What I Like: GM Reggie McKenzie inherited a mess when he took over a few years ago, and it will take time for him to turn this franchise around. I like how he just decided to suck it up and clear out all the dead weight from the salary cap and basically take one on the chin this year to build for the future. Their schedule is set up so they have five of their first eight games at home. Maybe that gives them a chance to get off to a decent start. No one believes that the Raiders are going to be any good this year, but that usually can help a team and give them motivation to play hard every week and surprise some teams early on.

What I Don't Like: Matt Flynn is probably destined to be a career backup, and all indications point to Terelle Pryor starting the season at QB. If you have a team that is rebuilding, then it is really going to hurt you when you have a QB that is very shaky. On the surface it looks like the Raiders might be playing themselves into contention for the #1 overall pick in next year's draft.

Prediction: 3-13 and last in the AFC West

Quick AFC Recap:
AFC East
1-New England (10-6)
2-Miami (9-7)
3-NY Jets (8-8)
4-Buffalo (6-10)

AFC North
1-Pittsburgh (10-6)
2-Baltimore (8-8)
3-Cincy (8-8)
4-Cleveland (6-10)

AFC South
1-Houston (11-5)
2-Indy (8-8)
3-Tennessee (6-10)
4-Jacksonville (2-14)

AFC West
1-Kansas City (10-6)
2-Denver (9-7)
3-San Diego (6-10)
4-Oakland (3-13)

AFC Playoff Seeds
1-Houston-South
2-Pittsburgh-North
3-New England-East
4-Kansas City-West
5-Denver-Wild Card
6-Miami-Wild Card

AFC Playoff Predictions
Wild Card Round
3-New England over 6-Miami (Brady and Belichick make it to the Divisional Round for the fourth straight year)
4-KC over 5-Denver (Peyton Manning goes 0-2 as a Broncos starting QB in the playoffs, and the Chiefs win their first playoff game since 1993)

Divisional Round
1-Houston over 4-KC (Houston makes their first ever AFC Championship Game appearance)
2-Pittsburgh over 3-NE (The Steelers get back to the AFC Championship with a huge win over their old rivals)

AFC Championship
1-Houston over 2-Pittsburgh (The Texans make their first ever Super Bowl appearance in franchise history)

Super Bowl
New Orleans over Houston (Sean Payton and Drew Brees get back on top a year after the Bountygate scandal)