Week 3 Picks

21 of the 33 games in the NFL season have been decided by one score or less. The result has been some wild finishes and great games, but there are a lot of questions that need to be answered. Some teams that started slow will find their way (Giants and Steelers anyone?) Some teams that started fast might level off soon (Dolphins and Chiefs perhaps?) In any event, this NFL season has been really good so far, and I think it sets up a wild and unpredictable season with a lot of teams in the playoff hunt down to the last week. Isn’t that what Pete Rozelle envisioned way back in the day? Anyway, here is to another fun week of games, and onto the picks for Week 3….

Last Week’s Record: 10-5-1

TNF Pick: 0-1

Overall Record: 18-13-3

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

TENNESSEE (-3) over San Diego: It might be too much to ask for the Chargers to go back to the East/Central Time Zone and win another game on consecutive Sundays. This should be a very competitive game featuring two teams that just might make a run at a wild card spot in the AFC.

Cleveland (+7) over MINNESOTA: Many people are going to pick against the Browns because they traded away Trent Richardson this week. I don’t think that they will just implode the rest of the season. Although Brian Hoyer is starting for the injured Brandon Weeden, is that a big difference in talent? Probably not. Take the Browns and the points to keep it close.

Tampa Bay (+7) over NEW ENGLAND: As awful as the Bucs have been in two games, they really should be 2-0 instead of 0-2. If they were 2-0, then this line would be lower. I’m taking the Bucs because I think their secondary will be able to frustrate Tom Brady and that Pats offense.  It is as simple as that.

Houston (-2) over BALTIMORE: The emergence of DeAndre Hopkins in Houston could be the biggest factor in the race to the Super Bowl in the AFC. Hopkins had a big day last week against the Titans. If he continues to develop, then this Houston team will be very tough to stop. I think you get their “A” game this week and win this one going away.

St.Louis (+4) over DALLAS: I am not trusting Dallas at home against anyone. The Rams got buried by the Falcons last week, but they were able to recover enough to get the old back door cover. I think the Rams hang around for a while this season, and this is a game that they could steal.

NEW ORLEANS (-7) over Arizona: The Saints at home should be a lock. You are only laying seven points, so keep on riding the Saints.

Detroit (Pick) over WASHINGTON: The Skins and RG III have looked so bad so far this year. The Lions could easily be 2-0 if they didn’t stub their toe at Arizona last week. I think the Lions get to 2-1 and the Redskins fall to 0-3. I think the Lions are just a better team.

CINCY (+3) over Green Bay: This is a really good game on Sunday. How can the Packers protect Aaron Rodgers from the Cincy defense? That will be the key to this game. Also, if anyone thinks that Andy Dalton could match score for score with Rodgers, then they are nuts. I’ll take the Bengals as a home underdog. This should be a fun one.

New York Giants (Pick) over CAROLINA: The G-Men have their backs against the wall, so you know that they will come out ready to play in this one. Plus, the Panthers are banged up in the secondary, so I’ll take the Giants to avoid the 0-3 start.

Atlanta (+3) over MIAMI: Another interesting game on the slate. The Fish look good so far in this young season, but you have to think that the Falcons will be able to go on the road and get it done this week. This seems like it will be a close game, but look for Matt Ryan to win it late for Atlanta. 

SAN FRANCISCO (-10) over Indy: The Colts come to the Bay area with newly acquired Trent Richardson in their backfield. It was a good trade for the Colts at this moment, but does Richardson really sway the balance of power in the AFC South to the Colts? I don't think so. The problem with the Colts is that their offensive line is having trouble protecting Andrew Luck. That could be a problem this week with the Niners. I know Aldon Smith just got arrested for a DUI, but I have a feeling that the Niners will harass Luck all day. You worry about the back door cover with the Colts, but look for SF to take out their frustration from last week's loss to the Seahawks out on Indy.

SEATTLE (-19) over Jacksonville: It is a lot of points, but this is a game featuring the best team in the NFL versus the worst. This is the equivalent of one of those early season college football matchups between Alabama and Savannah State. Lay the points because it won't matter. This seems like a 31-3 type of game to me. 

Buffalo (+3) over NY JETS: I know the Jets defense looks really solid so far this season, but I like how the Bills have played the first two weeks. Put it this way: Who do you trust more in this game-E.J.Manuel or Geno Smith? I'll take Manuel and take the Bills on the road.

PITTSBURGH (+3) over Chicago: This is the last stand for my predicted AFC North winners because if they lose this week, then they are 0-3 and done for the year. The Steelers are really, really weak on offense this year. They can't run the ball at all, and Big Ben looks so frustrated out there. How long before Todd Haley gets fired as offensive coordinator? I'm thinking by Week 6 he is gone. 

Oakland (+15) over DENVER: First, what kick in the ass it was to lose Ryan Clady for the year with a foot injury. The fact that he got hurt late in the blowout win to the Giants was just awful. I pray that this won't derail their season on offense. You hope that it won't because we still have Peyton Manning back there, but this was a huge loss for the Broncos. Denver is now playing without three of their top five players. Champ Bailey is still out with an injury, Von Miller comes back in Week 7 from suspension, and now Clady is done for the year. The Broncos should win this one at home on Monday Night Football, but it will be a closer game than the spread indicates.

Final Score: Broncos-27 Raiders-20