Sunday, January 15, 2017

Divisional Weekend Preview and Picks!

Wild Card weekend didn't produce the best games and it was a bit of a let down. Now we head into what many people call the best weekend of the football the NFL has to offer: The Divisional Playoffs. All the top seeds are playing after having a week off and in this year's case the seven best teams in the NFL are playing this weekend. This weekend also features games that are rematches from earlier contests in the regular season. There is a lot of intrigue and I think we are set up for a great weekend of games and it should be very fun to see how this all plays out. Here we go with the picks for the Divisional Round in the NFL....

Last Week's Record: 2-2
Overall Playoff Record: 2-2
Regular Season Record: 141-99-14
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

NFC Divisional Playoff
3) Seattle at 2) Atlanta

A Case for the Seahawks:
Seattle is just battle tested at this point. They have played in a lot of playoff games in recent years and they are not going to be afraid of the big moment. They seem to thrive on it. Plus, for one of the few teams in the Pete Carroll regime, they are underdogs and a lot of people are picking against them. That could be a dangerous proposition. You know that their defense is going to play well and if they put the ball in Russell Wilson's hands, he can make plays to win the game by himself-especially against this Atlanta defense. Would anyone be surprised if Seattle went into the Georgia Dome and took down the Falcons? I certainly wouldn't. Remember that I feel like Seattle was just waiting for the regular season to end so they can get to the playoffs and that is why they are dangerous.

A Case for the Falcons:
The high scoring Falcons come into the playoffs with the best offense in the NFL. They led the NFL in points scored and they put up 30 points in 10 of the 16 games. Seattle's defense isn't as dominant as it was a few years ago, and there is a chance that Atlanta and Matt Ryan could just smoke them out of the building. This game was close in Seattle in October and the Falcons were able to move the ball at will in the second half. I could see the doing this again. We know that Atlanta's defense is not the greatest but you could see them getting a lead and then using the crowd noise and the homefield advantage to get after Wilson and disrupt the Seattle offense. How much of Seattle's performance was just the ineptitude of the Lions last week? Are really sold on Seattle coming into Atlanta and knocking off this Falcons team?

Prediction: Seattle (+4) over ATLANTA: The Saturday afternoon game during Divisional Weekend has produced some all-time classics (2011 Saints-49ers, 2012 Ravens-Broncos, and 2014 Ravens-Patriots) and I could see this game being a wild one that comes down to the end. I'll take Seattle to pull the upset late but this should be a very fun and entertaining game to start off the football weekend.
Final Score: Seahawks-26 Atlanta-23

AFC Divisional Playoff
4) Houston at 1) New England

A Case for the Texans: No one and I mean NO ONE believes that they have any chance to upset the Patriots in Foxboro on Saturday night. They are 16 point underdogs and Bill O'Brien can hammer that message home to his team all week. Plus, they do have a good defense and they have some disrupters along that front seven like Jadeveon Clowney and Whitney Mercilus. If they can get to Tom Brady, then it can keep this game close. In their first matchup in September, they fumbled two kick returns. You can't see that happening again. They are hoping for their defense to keep it close in the 4th quarter and then try and pull off a miracle.

A Case for the Patriots: They won't sleep on the Texans. Bill Belichick will have them prepared and they will go for the knockout punch early in this game. They will be motivated and put an effort to get this game to 14-0 or 21-0 early and put Houston away. They won't mess around for long. Plus, their defense has feasted on crummy QBs all season long and now Brock Osweiler comes riding to town. The Pats will make his life miserable on Saturday night form that perspective.

Prediction: NEW ENGLAND (-16) over Houston: There is no way that Houston will win this game. The only question is whether the Patriots will cover the spread. I think they will. There will be no messing around in Foxboro come Saturday night.
Final Score: Patriots-34 Texans-13

AFC Divisional Playoff
3) Pittsburgh at 2) Kansas City

A Case for the Steelers: They are the better team and they are more explosive team. Look at what Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown, and LeVeon Bell did last week against Miami in the Wild Card game. Those three guys can win any game in any stadium in any situation. I know Arrowhead is a tough place to play and that place will be rocking on Sunday afternoon, but don't forget the Chiefs have been beaten by the Bucs and the Titans at home in the past month and a half. I can definitely see the Steelers going in there and taking care of business. If this game becomes a shootout, then I still can see the Steelers outscoring the Chiefs. If it is a low-scoring close game, then you know that Big Ben, Antonio, and LeVeon can all make plays to win this game late. I just think the Steelers are the better team and are better coached and that will make a difference.

A Case for the Chiefs: They are at home coming off a bye. Andy Reid has a great record coming off a bye week, and the fans in Arrowhead will be rocking when this game starts. They have Tyreek Hill, who single-handedly can win this game by himself with a big play. You have to like the KC offense being able to move the ball with their weapons against the Pittsburgh defense. You can also use the fact that the Steelers absolutely blew the Chiefs out in Pittsburgh as a motivation for the Chiefs to return the favor on them this week. I would expect a lot of people to pick the Steelers, so the Chiefs can use that to help themselves get ready for the game. Big Ben usually throws about two or three passes a game that hurts his team, and the Chiefs have the type of defense that can force those bad throws and capitalize them into turnovers.

Prediction: Pittsburgh (+2) over KANSAS CITY: The Steelers present the only viable challenge to knocking off the Pats in the AFC, so I am really rooting for them in this spot. Plus, as a Broncos fan I would love to see the Chiefs go out in this game at home. The Steelers will find a way to win this game and set up an epic AFC Championship at Foxboro against the Patriots next Sunday.
Final Score: Steelers-27 Chiefs-24

NFC Divisional Playoff
4) Green Bay at 1) Dallas

A Case for the Packers: When you have the best QB on the planet playing at one of the highest levels of his career, you have a very good chance of winning. Aaron Rodgers just destroyed the Giants defense in the second half of last week's game, and there is no reason to think that the Cowboys defense will be able to slow him down. The way that Rodgers is playing is scary, and you could see how he could just take this game over. Plus, all the pressure is on Dallas. They are the #1 seed, have homefield advantage, and had a bye to get ready for this game. The Packers can go in there fast and loose and know that no matter how the game plays out, they have Rodgers and they can pull it out. Doesn't this game follow the usual recipe for a Divisional Round upset? The hot team (Green Bay) and the hot QB are just too much for the top seed, who makes uncharacteristic mistakes at the worst time in the game. No one will be surprised if the Packers go into Dallas and win this game.

A Case for the Cowboys: They have had sort of a magical run here in 2016 with Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliot. Their offensive line should be able to control the line of scrimmage and they should be able to run the ball and move the ball effectively on this Packers defense. Jordy Nelson will likely miss the game with a rib injury, so that could slow this Packers offense down a bit. Plus, Prescott and the Cowboys don't know any better. They weren't apart of some of the recent big-game failures when Tony Romo was the QB. Throw in the revenge factor from the Dez Bryant catch play from the 2014 Divisional Game, and the football gods might be on the Cowboys side this time to even it out. Also, in a year where the NFL's TV ratings slipped a bit, wouldn't the league and Roger Goodell love the Cowboys representing the NFC in the Super Bowl? I would expect Dallas to get every call on Sunday.

Prediction: Green Bay (+4.5) over DALLAS: This is the most anticipated game of the weekend, and I can't wait to watch this game on Sunday afternoon in the late window. As much as I think Dallas is the better team, I just have this vision of a close game and Aaron Rodgers going down the field late to pull this game out. I can see the combo of Prescott and Elliot making some mistakes and it sets the stage for the Packers pulling the mini-upset on the road.
Final Score: Packers-33 Cowboys-28






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