Wild Card Weekend Preview and Picks!

Wild Card Weekend has arrived and the Road to Super Bowl LI in Houston starts this weekend. We are down to only 11 games left in the NFL, so we better enjoy each and every game. With the Broncos out of the playoffs for the first time since 2010, I am just looking to pick a team each game to root for and hope for nothing but good matchups and close games. There is nothing like watching your team in the playoffs, but with the Broncos out of it this year, maybe I'll be able to just sit back and relax and enjoy the games like a regular fan. This weekend brings some interesting matchups and some odd storylines involving QBs. You've got third string rookie Connor Cook starting for the Raiders in place of the injured Derek Carr going up against the once starter, then benched, then starter again Brock Osweiler for the Texans. Not exactly how Raider fans drew it up in their first playoff appearance since 2002. You have Matt Moore, in place of the injured Ryan Tannehill, leading the Dolphins in their first playoff appearance since 2008 as they travel to Pittsburgh to take on Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers. Matt Stafford and Russell Wilson square off on Saturday night the other NFC matchup, and you have a classic in Lambeau on Sunday as Eli Manning and the Giants take on Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. It looks like the NFC is more wide open than the AFC this year, but anything can happen in the playoffs, and it wouldn't surprise anyone to see one of these teams playing this weekend getting hot and going on a run to the Super Bowl. Without further ado, here are the picks for Wild Card Weekend in the NFL.....

Last Week's Record: 7-8-1
Overall Regular Season Record: 141-99-14
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

5)Oakland at 4)Houston

A Case for the Raiders: The Raiders are making their first appearance in the playoffs since 2002. Their fanbase will be fired up and don't be surprised if they travel well to see the Silver and Black in Houston. I think we forget that the Raiders won 12 games this year, and as valuable as Derek Carr was for them, they still have a lot of weapons on offense with Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree and a solid running game behind a very good offensive line. I could see the Raiders really trying to limit the possessions in this game and grind out a low scoring win. I know Connor Cook is making his first ever start in a road playoff game, but does Houston really have an intimidating homefield advantage? Cook played in some bigtime games in his career at Michigan State, so I don't think this stage will be too big for him. Plus, everyone is counting the Raiders out in this one and giving them little chance, which means they will use that for motivation and perhaps play with a chip on their shoulder.

A Case for the Texans: They are at home against a team starting a third string, rookie QB making his first career start. Trust me, Derek Carr is not running out of the tunnel in miraculous fashion on Saturday. Their defense, led by a rejuvenated Jadeveon Clowney, could just suffocate and make life miserable for Cook. Bill O'Brien goes back to Brock Osweiler after Tom Savage suffered a concussion last week. I think O'Brien will play it safe with Osweiler, but O'Brien should also have learned something from last year when he kept sending Brian Hoyer to the wolves in the playoff blowout to the Chiefs last year. I think they can get a lead on the Raiders and put some doubt in them early and then just put the game in cruise control and ride out a rather easy victory. I'm sure that is their plan for this game.

Prediction: Oakland (+4) over HOUSTON: The NFL wasted no time putting this game in the early Saturday afternoon slot on Wild Card Weekend. It is certainly not the sexiest matchup, but hopefully it turns out to be a fun, back and forth game after looking so bad on paper. I'll duck the conventional wisdom here, and give the Raiders the win in a semi-upset with a big effort from Khalil Mack and their defense.
Final Score: Raiders-24 Texans-22

6)Detroit at 3)Seattle

A Case for the Lions: People forget that the Lions were 9-4 heading into a brutal schedule down the stretch the last three games. They are used to playing in close games, and they were on the verge of beating the Seahawks in Seattle last year on Monday Night Football. You could see the Lions just saying "Screw it, let's just put the game in Matt Stafford's hands." That might be the best way for them to pull the upset. I know the Lions secondary has been shaky, but their front seven has played well for most of the year, and we know how shaky the Seahawks offensive line has been all year. Plus, as big underdogs, they have nothing to lose and can play fast and loose.


A Case for the Seahawks: You get the feeling that the Seahawks got to the point in the season where they were not really concerned about what happened during the regular season and they were going to turn it up in the playoffs. They went 10-5-1 and squandered the #2 seed and a bye with a loss to the Cardinals at home in Week 16. Now, they find themselves at home in the Wild Card round and hosting the 9-7 Lions. I don't think they will be overlooking Detroit at all, and I think they will really play one of their best games of the year this weekend. The crowd and the 12th Man will create a lot of problems for the Lions, and I'm not going against Russell Wilson and that defense at home in the playoffs. I think now that the playoffs have arrived, this team will have complete focus and they will be razor sharp against the Lions.

Prediction: SEATTLE (-7) over Detroit: As much as I hope this game is close, and it could be, I can't see the Seahawks losing this game at home. This would be about as big of a surprise you can get this weekend if the Seahawks got knocked off by the Lions in this game. They will find a way to pull away in the second half and they will punch their ticket for a trip to Atlanta next week in the Divisional Round.
Final Score: Seahawks-27 Lions-17

6)Miami at 3)Pittsburgh

A Case for the Dolphins: Did the Dolphins really lose all that much after Ryan Tannehill went down for the knee injury? Not really because Matt Moore, although limited as a backup, did his job well enough to beat the Bills and Jets on the road and secure a playoff spot for Miami. We know how the Dolphins are going to play this game: Bleed the clock and run the ball on offense with Jay Ajayi, limit the Pittsburgh possessions, and try to get one or two turnovers from Ben Roethlisberger to swing the outcome. This is Miami's first playoff game since 2008. It is also Adam Gase's first season as head coach and he guided them to the playoffs. You know they are playing with house money and they have nothing to lose. They should play fast and loose and don't forget that they pounded the Steelers back in October 30-15 in Miami, so they can use that game as confidence as they head into Pittsburgh on Sunday.

A Case for the Steelers: The Steelers finished 11-5 on the heels of a seven game winning streak. They have Big Ben, Antonio Brown, and Leveon Bell all healthy and playing together for this game and this playoff run. They didn't have that luxury last year. Also, they were really close last year to knocking off the eventual Super Bowl champion Broncos in the Divisional Round, so you know that this team has been on a mission all year long. How many more quality chances do they have to get another Super Bowl in the Big Ben-Mike Tomlin era? I think the fact that they lost so convincingly to Miami in October will motivate them and have them ready to go. They lost at home in the Wild Card round to Baltimore two years ago, lost in the Divisional Round last year to Denver, and I think they will take that next step this year. They are vulnerable, but the way they played down the stretch, including that clutch performance against the Ravens on Christmas, makes me believe that they will take care of business at home against a team starting a backup quarterback.

Prediction: Miami (+10) over PITTSBURGH: The Steelers will win this game. There is no doubt in my mind that they will win the game, but I do think that this spread is a little too high. The Dolphins should be able to keep it close for a while, but ultimately Big Ben and the Steelers will be too much for them and they will advance to take on Kansas City in Arrowhead next Sunday.
Final Score: Steelers-30 Dolphins-21

5)NY Giants at 4) Green Bay

A Case for the Giants: The Giants defense has played really well all year long and especially down the stretch. If you are going to win on the road in the playoffs, a good defense will help you do it because good defenses travel well. The G-Men have a good defense, and perhaps they can stop Aaron Rodgers just enough to pull the game out. You know that the elements, the cold and the atmosphere of playing in Lambeau Field in the playoffs will not affect Eli Manning at all. He has already won there twice in his career, so you know he feels confident going into that building and winning. As much as the Giants have struggled on offense this year, Odell Beckham Jr can break the game open with a big play and sometimes that is all you need to decide these playoff games. The Giants will be very confident heading to Green Bay because they believe in their defense and they believe that Manning or Beckham can make a play to win the game.

A Case for the Packers: At 4-6, the Packers were basically written off and everyone was killing Aaron Rodgers. From that point, he has put the Packers on his back, won six straight games, and made them one of the most dangerous teams in the playoffs. Now, they get a home game against the Giants. Do you think the Packers will lose a third time to Eli Manning at home in the playoffs? I don't know if I can see that happening. Also, as much as the Packers have struggled in the secondary this year, the Giants offense hasn't exactly been on fire this year with any consistency. Even if this game is close, you have to like Rodgers ability to find ways to make a play to win the as well. I think the Pack was a bad matchup for the Giants, and if anyone can find a way to move the ball on the Giants defense, it will be Aaron Rodgers and his offense.

Prediction: GREEN BAY (-4) over NY Giants: This is the best game of the weekend. It is a classic matchup. Two historic franchises with some recent playoff history. Two Super Bowl winning QBs with star power on both teams. Lambeau Field in January in the playoffs in the cold. All you need is John Facenda narrating this game for NFL Films. It should be a good game and close game, but I just can't go against the Packers and Aaron Rodgers at this point. Look for the Packers to win and head to Dallas for next week's Divisional Round.
Final Score: Packers-27 Giants-20