Week 17 Picks

The final week of the 2012 NFL season is here. It is always amazing how fast the NFL season goes, and this year went by "Milennium Falcon light-speed" fast. As usual many of the NFL pundits and experts will talk about how "topsy-turvy" and "wacky" this year was, but I really disagree with that. Yes, there have been some surprises (Minnesota and Indy), there have been some disappointments (Eagles and Steelers), but for the most part this season has been very ordinary. Five out of six playoff teams returned in the AFC-with the lone exception being the Steelers. In the NFC, Washington has surprised some, but are you really surprised with the addition of Robert Griffin III. People liked Seattle going into the season with Matt Flynn as a the starter and not Russell Wilson, so the Seahawks haven't snuck up on anyone. The Giants started 6-2, then faded as usual down the stretch, and they are on their playoff lifeline heading into Week 17. The Cowboys were up-and-down all year, and for the second straight year they find themselves at 8-7 and playing for the NFC East title on the last Sunday night game of the year. The Packers, Niners, and Falcons are all returning to the playoffs, and the Bears collapsed down the stretch once again and need help just to make the playoffs. With that said, usually the last week of the season does produce some surprises. Last year, the only real surprise the last week provided was in the AFC East. Denver lost at home to Kansas City, but won the West at 8-8 because the Raiders lost to the Chargers at home. This year has the potential to have some real crazy things happen-especially in the NFC. It would be great for some of these scenarios to play out: The Giants beat the Eagles and the Lions upset the Bears in the early games on Sunday. Then, the Packers beat the Vikings in the late window, and it sets up the Cowboys and Redskins in a do or die game on Sunday night. If the Cowboys win, then Dallas will win the East, but Washington will still get in as the sixth seed with a tiebreaker over the Giants. If Washington wins, then Dallas is out, the Skins win the East, and the Giants get in as the 6 seed. In the AFC, it is all about seeding. If you are a Broncos fan, then you have to look for a few things. Hopefully, Indy pulls out all the stops and upsets the Texans at home in the early game, then Denver takes care of business over Kansas City, and the Pats beat Miami to give the 1 seed to Denver, the 2 seed to New England, and the 3 seed to Houston. Denver would have homefield advantage throughout the playoffs. In what was a very ordinary season in the NFL, maybe there will be one wacky finish to the regular season. Onto the picks for Week 17.......

Last Week's Record: 5-9-2
Overall Record: 109-118-11
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

BUFFALO (-3) over New York Jets: The Bills were a major disappointment this year in my opinion. It is amazing how losing the first game of the season can really set the tone for the rest of year in some cases. The Bills are a perfect example of that. It seems like they never really recovered after getting torched by the Jets in Week 1. The Jets limp in to the finale at 6-9, and they have been the most publicized 6-9 team in NFL history. Has any team generated some much talk from training camp until Week 17 in recent memory? All that talk for a team that is not going to have a winning season. It feels like the Jets are 3-12 with all the negative talk that surrounds them on a weekly basis. This season can't end soon enough for Jets and their fans.

Miami (+11) over NEW ENGLAND: The Dolphins are looking to finish a respectable 8-8 in the first season under Joe Philbin. I never thought that the Fish would win 7-8 games this year, so they have been a surprise under their new head coach. A win here could really jumpstart them into a possible playoff team in 2013. The Patriots would love to get a first-round bye, but with the way that their offense is humming, it doesn't matter who the Pats play and where. When you have Tom Brady, you can win anywhere, and they are still the best team in the AFC heading into the playoffs. Expect a win for the Pats, but the Dolphins keep it under a 10 point margin.

CINCY (-2) over Baltimore: Baltimore got back on track last week with a convincing win at home over the Giants, and at 10-5 they are locked in as the AFC North champs. It has been a weird year for the Ravens. They haven't looked great in many of their wins, and they got crushed by two of the big dogs, Houston and Denver, in some of the biggest games of the year. They might not go all out in this game, and deal with the Colts next week, and try to avoid the Bengals once again next week in the first round. Give the Bengals credit for this season. I did not think that the Bengals would rebound and make the playoffs again this season, but they turned around their season after a 3-5 start. Although they are locked into the 6 seed, I think they want to play hard and win this game, get to 10 wins, and knock off Baltimore after they defeated the Steelers last week. Cincy will be an interesting team to watch in the playoffs.

PITTSBURGH (PICK) over Cleveland: The Steelers were a major disappointment this year. I had them winning the division and making a deep run in the playoffs. They were on the right track until Ben Roethlisberger got hurt, and then when Big Ben came back, they lost two brutal games to Dallas and Cincy to knock them out of contention. It will be interesting to see what happens with Offensive Coordinator Todd Haley, and there might be a change with his job status. Whatever happens to him, look for the Steelers to rebound next year and come back strong in 2013. Cleveland is riding out the string here, and they are forced to start Thaddeus Lewis at quarterback. There will be major changes once again in Cleveland, and it will be interesting to see if they can lure a big name coach next year.

INDY (+7) over Houston: The Colts are the story of the AFC this year. I thought they would be much improved with Andrew Luck, and I even predicted them to win at least 7-8 games this year. Throw in the whole Chuck Pagano story, and you have a recipe for a real feel-good story in Indy. It is quite an accomplishment that they are in the playoffs. They are locked into the 5 seed, but it sounds like they are  going to play hard this last week. Houston has faded a little bit down the stretch after getting crushed by New England and pounded by Minnesota. They need this win badly because they want the #1 seed in the worst way. If they lose this game, they could end up as the 3 seed. This game feels like a 24-21 game either way, but the Texans will find a way to win a close one.

TENNESSEE (-3) over Jacksonville: Two teams that are amongst the worst in the NFL. Jacksonville needs to blow everything up, start over in the front office, recruit a college-type coach, and somehow get Tim Tebow on their team to give them some hype going into 2013. I thought the Titans would be sneaky good this year, but I was dead wrong. Mike Munchak might get fired, and there are still a lot of questions regarding Jake Locker. They also never recovered after their first game of the year when they got killed by the Patriots at home.

Philly (+7) over NEW YORK GIANTS: The Giants started 6-2, then went into their usual second half swoon, and now find themselves at 8-7 and needing to hit an inside straight to make the playoffs. No matter what happens to the Giants in this game, they will not get on a run if they make the playoffs. If they miss out, then there will changes regardless. When you are the defending Super Bowl champs, if you miss the playoffs the next season, then it is a major disappointment. The Eagles are finishing a really disappointing season, and this will be Andy Reid's last game as Eagles coach. With Nick Foles out with an injury, the Eagles turn back to Michael Vick. It would be fitting for the Eagles to go out on a high note with Vick and Reid ruining the Giants season.

DETROIT (+4) over Chicago: The Bears were 7-1, and they looked like Super Bowl contenders. Now, they are 9-6, and they need a win plus the Vikings to lose to make the playoffs. This is one of those franchise altering games for the Bears. If they win, there is a good chance they make the playoffs. If they lose, then Lovie Smith is probably gone, and there will be a lot questions about the age in their defense and even QB Jay Cutler. The Lions have been truly disappointing this season, and they have imploded badly the last month. However, they do have talent on this roster. The Lions really hate the Bears a lot, and there is plenty of bad blood in this rivalry. The Lions can at least salvage something if they can find a way to knock off the Bears at home this week. The Bears will probably win the game, but look for the Lions to make then sweat it out.

Green Bay (-3) over MINNESOTA: The Packers got off to a 2-3 start, and everyone was panicking. They are 9-1 since, and Aaron Rodgers has been playing really well from that point. They are fighting for the 2 seed and a bye in the NFC, and they will be very dangerous in the playoffs. They need this game because they don't want to have to play San Francisco or Seattle on the road in the Divisional Round. The Vikings have been a real surprise this year, and they can make the playoffs by beating the Packers at home. Even if they don't win, this season can still be considered a success. Adrian Peterson could win the MVP award very easily, and they will give the Packers everything they got, but I think they fall just short.

ATLANTA (PICK) over Tampa Bay: The Falcons are 13-2 and have the #1 seed in the NFC locked up. It doesn't matter what the Falcons do this week because their focus will have to be their first playoff game at home in two weeks. The Bucs were surprising everyone with their 6-4 record at one point, but they have fallen apart and now stand at 6-9. I think Greg Schiano has done a good job nonetheless, and they are a team definitely headed in the right direction.

NEW ORLEANS (-4) over Carolina: The Saints season got hijacked by the bounty suspensions, but they have played really well the last two weeks. They want to win this last game, finish 8-8, and turn the page on 2012 and get going for 2013. Sean Payton signed an extension with the team today and look for them to rebound and get back into the playoffs in 2013. The Panthers were a trendy pick to make the playoffs in Year 2 of the Cam Newton Era, but they had a terrible start to the season. They picked it up late and at 6-9, they are looking to finish strong and get that seventh win. A win here could save Ron Rivera's job, but it won't really matter. What matters for next year is the continued development and maturity of Cam Newton. They will be an interesting team to watch heading into next season.

SAN DIEGO (PICK) over Oakland: The Chargers are playing out the string as Norv Turner is likely on his way out. It has been three years since the Chargers made the playoffs, and they need an overhaul at the top, but I don't think they are far off. Someone has to come in and help turn Philip Rivers' career around. The Raiders are clearly rebuilding and it is not surprising that they are 4-11 at this point. It will take some time for GM Reggie McKenize and Head Coach Dennis Allen to get the Raiders into a contender.

Arizona (+17) over SAN FRANCISCO: The Niners got crushed last Sunday night at Seattle, but they can still get the 2 seed with a win at home this week over the Cardinals. I don't know if the Niners can make a deep playoff run this year, but I do like their chances if they get the bye. They are another team that really needs to get a bye and a week off. I think they are a better team than the Packers, but I don't know if I would take Colin Kaepernick in his first road playoff game at Lambeau against a well-rested Green Bay squad. The Cardinals are so dismal and their 4-0 start seems like it happened years ago. They will go with Brian Hoyer this week, and anything is better than the John Skelton-Ryan Lindley tag team that they have sent out there the last two months. The Niners will win the game, but the Cards could keep it under 17 points.

SEATTLE (-10) over St. Louis: The Seahawks have been red-hot the last month and at 10-5 they could still win the division and get a bye of the Packers and Niners get tripped up. They will be a very tough team to deal with in the playoffs, but the question will be how they will play on the road because they are probably going to be the 5th seed and head to either Washington or Dallas on Wild Card Weekend. Great year for Pete Carroll and that staff. They are going to be a very interesting team to watch in January. The Rams are finishing off a very solid campaign. At 7-7-1, they have definitely exceeded a lot of expectations in Jeff Fisher's first year. Even if they lose this game and finish 7-8-1, they have to be happy in the direction of their franchise. They will be a very popular wildcard contender next year.

Dallas (+4) over WASHINGTON: The Redskins are 9-6, and they have won six in a row after starting the season at 3-6. RG III has been one of the most exciting players in the league this year, and he is certainly the type of person that the NFL can embrace. It would be a great story for the NFL to see him and the Redskins win this game and win the NFC East. The underlying scenario here is this: Washington might know that it doesn't necessarily HAVE to win this game to make the playoffs by the time this contest kicks off on Sunday night. If the Bears and Vikings both lose earlier in the day, then the Redskins can still make the playoffs as the 6 seed if they lose to Dallas. I know Mike Shanahan wouldn't want to back into the playoffs as a wild card, but it is something to think about. It is amazing that a year later the Cowboys find themselves in the same position as 2011. They are 8-7, on the road, and they need a win to win the NFC East or they are out of the playoffs all together. The Cowboys got crushed by the Giants last year, and they were never in the game. This year is feels a little different. This team is very quirky, but can they lose another must win game to finish the season two years in a row? This is a fascinating matchup, and I'm not sure I have any idea who will win this game. I do think it will be very close and come down to the final possession. In that case, I'll take the Cowboys and the points.

Kansas City (+16) over DENVER: The Chiefs are battling Jacksonville for the number 1 pick in the 2013 NFL Draft, and they can't wait for this dreadful season to end. Romeo Crennel is probably out as head coach, and GM Scott Pioli might be gone too. They have no answer at quarterback, and they need to find one in the draft, but there is no Andrew Luck or RG III in this year's crop of quarterbacks. It will be very interesting to see what they do at that position in this offseason. The Broncos are galloping into the postseason at 12-3 and winners of 10 straight games. The Peyton Manning signing has completely changed everything for this franchise. The Broncos can get a bye in the first round if they win this game. I wonder what all those experts are thinking when many of them picked the Chiefs to win the AFC West, and the Broncos to struggle to under Manning this year. One last thing about this game: Do you remember a year ago at this time? Denver was hosting KC in Week 17, and the Broncos were 8-7 with Tim Tebow at QB and all they needed was a win over the 6-9 Chiefs and Kyle Orton to win the AFC West. Tebow played very poorly and the Chiefs beat the Broncos 7-3. Only a Raiders loss to the Chargers got the Broncos into the playoffs at 8-8. A year later and in Week 17 the Broncos host the Chiefs with Peyton Manning as their quarterback, Tebow floundering with the Jets, the Chiefs in disarray, Orton a backup in Dallas, an AFC West title that was locked up in early December, and the Broncos fighting for a bye and possibly the #1 seed in the AFC. It is crazy how much things can change in one year.

Final Score: Denver-27 KC-17

NFL Playoff Schedule Predictions!!!!!

As we head into the final week of the 2012 NFL season, there isn't as many crazy scenarios and possibilities as there has been in the past years. With that said, it is time for my annual guilty pleasure: Trying to predict the NFL playoff schedule. A few things to clear up before we get to the predictions. First, FOX should be getting the late game on Sunday of Wild Card weekend. Last year, CBS had that time slot, and they hit a home run when they got the Broncos-Steelers classic overtime game which of course featured Tim Tebow's memorable 80 yard touchdown pass to Demaryius Thomas on the first play of overtime to give the Broncos the 29-23 win. This year it is FOX that gets that slot, so you know that they want to get a marquee game in that late window to finish off the weekend. Secondly, CBS will get the late game for the Divisional weekend on Sunday. Also, CBS will get the early game on Saturday afternoon, and FOX will get the primetime game on Saturday night and the early game on Sunday. The AFC playoff teams are set, but the top four seeds still need to be sorted out. The NFC is a little crazier, but it looks like Washington should win the NFC East with a win over Dallas at home, and either the Bears, Vikings, and Giants could grab the six seed. Minnesota has a tough game at home against the Packers, who are fighting for the 2 seed. The Bears travel to the 4-11 Lions, and the Giants host the 4-11 Eagles. The Giants need loses by Dallas, Chicago, AND Minnesota coupled with a win over Philly to get a wild card berth. As much as I would love to see the Bears go down at Detroit, they have the most viable option to get a wild card spot. Based on that logic and on my other theories for what will happen in Week 17, here is how I see the seeds in each conference:

NFC
1) Atlanta 14-2
2) Green Bay 12-4
3) San Francisco 11-4-1
4) Washington 10-6
5) Seattle 11-5
6) Chicago 10-6

AFC
1) Houston 13-3
2) Denver 13-3
3) New England 12-4
4) Baltimore 10-6
5) Indianapolis 10-6
6) Cincinnati 10-6

Here are my predictions for Wild Card Weekend based on those matchups:

Saturday 1/5/12
4:30pm EST-NBC
(5) Seattle at (4) Washington

8:00pm EST-NBC
(6) Cincinnati at (3) New England

Sunday 1/6/12
1:00pm EST-CBS
(5) Indy at (4) Baltimore

4:30pm EST-FOX
(6) Chicago at (3) San Francisco

Here are the slots for Divisional Weekend based on the seeds:

Saturday 1/12/12
4:30pm EST-CBS
at (1) Houston

8:00pm EST-FOX
at (1) Atlanta

Sunday 1/13/12
1:00pm EST-FOX
at (2) Green Bay

4:30pm EST-CBS
at (2) Denver

Broncos Pound Browns Get 10th Straight Win

The Broncos handled their business once again on Sunday as they handled the Browns easily at Sports Authority Field at Mile High with a dominating 34-12 win to improve to 12-3. The Broncos have now won 10 straight games, and they are still alive for the #1 seed in the AFC. This game featured a fast start for the Broncos. Peyton Manning hit Demaryius Thomas on a beautiful 22 yard touchdown pass to give the Broncos an early 7-0 lead. After the Browns moved the ball effectively enough to get a field goal and cut the lead to 7-3, but Manning and the Broncos answered once again when he hooked up with Eric Decker for a 10 yard touchdown pass to make it 14-3. At that point, the Broncos pretty much had the game at hand. You never really felt like the Broncos were in trouble the rest of the way. An endzone interception of Peyton Manning and a 53 yard field goal by Phil Dawson cut the lead to 14-6. The Broncos came back and answered with a Manning to Decker on an 8 yard touchdown hookup to give the Broncos a 21-6. Add a couple of Matt Prater field goals sandwiched by a Jacob Hester touchdown run put this game away for good in the fourth quarter. It was another dominating win for the Broncos over an inferior opponent at home and combine that with the fact that Houston lost to Minnesota, and Denver has a chance at the number 1 seed in the AFC. It would be a real nice post-Christmas gift if the Broncos were able to somehow earn that number 1 seed and homefield advantage throughout the playoffs. Here are my thoughts and observations from the victory over Cleveland:

1) The Broncos offense has had trouble starting off games, but this week was a perfect start for Peyton Manning and the offensive unit. Two drives and two touchdowns. It was 14-3 right off the bat, and the Browns could never catch up. That is how the Broncos need to start these games at home-especially when they hit the playoffs next month.

2) Manning was really sensational on Sunday. His numbers were fantastic. He finished 30-43 with 339 yards and 2 touchdowns. He did have an interception in the endzone in the second quarter, but that was pretty much the only blemish on his day. He spread the ball around once again and his two big weapons, Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker, each caught scoring passes. More importantly, the Broncos passing game looked crisp and their weren't many mistakes.

3) Knowshon Moreno continued his solid play replacing Willis McGahee. Moreno added 78 yards rushing on 22 carries. He also caught five passes for 49 yards. Moreno continues to run hard every week and gets a lot of tough yards. He is not going to break off many big runs, but his efficient running has really helped the balance on their offense.

4) Once the Broncos grabbed that 14-3 lead, there was no way the Browns were coming back against this Broncos defense. After giving up an early field goal, the defense held the Browns to 3-12 on third down conversions, and they added 6 sacks. Elvis Dumervil got 2 sacks, and Von Miller and Wesley Woodyard both added 1.5 sacks. Give the Broncos defense a lead, and they will tee off on an offense-especially at home.

5) In what has become a weekly occurrence, Trindon Holliday fumbled another punt return. Fortunately, the Broncos were able to recover. His replacement, Jim Leonhard, also fumbled a punt return, but he was able to recover it as well. This has been a major problem for the Broncos, and I still feel that Holliday's fumbling issues will somehow come back to haunt the Broncos in a big spot in the playoffs.

6) It feels like a long time ago that the Broncos couldn't finish off seasons in December. Once you add Peyton Manning, then all of those late season collapses goes out the window.

7) The Broncos finish off the regular season with a home game against Kansas City in Week 17. If the Broncos win, then they are assured of at least a first round bye and the 2 seed. If they win and Houston loses, then Denver gets the 1 seed. If the Broncos lose, and Houston and New England win, then the Broncos are the 3 seed, and they will host the Bengals on Wild Card weekend. The Broncos can certainly use the bye in the first round of the playoffs, so they will be playing all-out this last game. There will also be some scoreboard watching because Houston plays Indy early and New England plays Miami at the same time the Broncos play the Chiefs.

Week 16 Picks

We have reached Christmas weekend in the NFL calendar, and the matchups in Week 16 aren't as juicy as last week. Obviously, the Broncos have to win out to clinch the number 2 seed in the AFC, so we know the importance of their games. If Atlanta and Houston win this weekend, then they both clinch homefield advantage in their respective conferences. The Colts can clinch a playoff spot with a win at hapless Kansas City. The real races in the playoffs occur in two spots: The NFC East and the AFC North. If you are looking for a set of games to keep an eye on this Sunday, then here they are: Cincy at Pittsburgh, Washington at Philly, New Orleans at Dallas, and the Giants at Baltimore. Those four games will hold the key to what needs to be decided in Week 17. I know the Bears are still alive and go to Arizona this week, but the drama lies in the NFC East. We are definitely headed to final Sunday Night Football matchup between the Redskins and Cowboys with the NFC East title up for grabs. Those four games will have a huge impact into what the playoff scenarios look like come Week 17. It is a fun time of year for a football fan and enjoy this weekend's slate of games.

Onto the picks for Week 15...
Last Week's Record: 8-8
Overall Record: 104-109-9
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

Tennessee (+13) over GREEN BAY: Did you see how bad the Titans were in their win over the Jets on Monday night? At 5-9, the Titans are a really bad football team, but for some reason I'll take them getting a shit load of points in Lambeau this week. The Packers will win outright, but they have already clinched the NFC North, and I could see them just cruising along in this one. It does worry me that the game time temperature is only supposed to be 22 degrees, but I'll take my chances with the Titans getting a cheap, backdoor cover.

San Diego (+3) over NY JETS: Where do you start with the Jets? Has there ever been more publicity for a team that is 6-8 and out of playoff contention? The Jets bench Mark Sanchez for this game, and go with Greg McElroy instead of Tim Tebow. There will be a lot of angry fans at the Meadowlands on Sunday. The Chargers are playing out the string in the last few games of the Norv Turner Era. Philip Rivers will have a big day through the air, and San Diego will win the game outright, which will cause more hysteria and complaint amongst Jets as they limp towards the finish line in 2012.

Oakland (+9) over CAROLINA: Call this the "Hunch Game of the Week" because the Raiders come limping in at 4-10, and the Panthers are suddenly "surging" at 5-9. A meaningless game that has no significance, but I'll take the Raiders as a huge underdog.

MIAMI (-4) over Buffalo: Easy pick here because the Bills have been really disappointing to me this year. The Dolphins have a very slim chance at making the playoffs, but they have played hard all year long and look for them to put a beatdown on the Bills this week.

PITTSBURGH (-3) over Cincy: Great matchup in the AFC this week. I loved the Bengals all week, but I am going to ride Big Ben and the Steelers one more time. They have to find a way to win this game this week? Right?

New England (-14) over JACKSONVILLE: It's a rematch of the 1996 AFC Championship Game!!!!! This will be over very quickly. The Pats jump on the Jags right from the get-go and never look back.

Indy (-7) over KANSAS CITY: This horrible season for the Chiefs is almost coming to a close. The Colts are just one win away from clinching a playoff berth in the first year of the "Chuckstrong-Andrew Luck" Era. The Colts will take care of business in Arrowhead, and they will clinch the year's most surprising playoff berth.

DALLAS (-3) over New Orleans: I liked the Saints a lot this week, but I kept thinking about how the Cowboys could completely implode on their fans. I came up with this: Dallas wins another close game this week, and sets up a trip to Washington to take on the Skins next Sunday for the NFC title. The Cowboys lose that game, and the Giants win both of their last two games, and once again the Cowboys are on the outside looking in at the playoffs.

PHILLY (+7) over Washington: This Redskins will win this game late, but look for it to be closer than a lot of people think. The Eagles get Lesean McCoy back this week, so that has to help somehow. I think this game is a one possession game late, and look for RG III to find a way to win it. Call it 27-24 Redskins.

TAMPA BAY (-3) over St. Louis: Two valiant seasons by two teams rebuilding. The Bucs will win this game by at least a touchdown, but both of these teams will be very dangerous come 2013.

New York Giants (-2) over BALTIMORE: I loved watching the Ravens get smacked around by the Broncos last week, and at 9-5 the Ravens are reeling right now. In come the Giants, who are doing their usual late-season disappearing act. I like the G-Men in this one because their backs are against the wall, and the Ravens are so beat up on defense and on their offensive line. Take the Giants laying only the two.

HOUSTON (-8) over Minnesota: I love the Adrian Peterson story, but take the Texans big at home for this reason only: Christian Ponder on the road against the fired up Texans front seven.

Chicago (-5) over ARIZONA: I would love to see the Bears implode once again down the stretch. Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall are widely regarded as one of the best QB-WR combos in the entire NFL, yet they haven't been to the playoffs in any season they were on the same team (2006-2008 in Denver.) Could they repeat their epic collapse of 2008 with Denver here in Chicago in 2012? They might, but I think they get the win this week in Arizona. The Cards got their win last week over Detroit to snap their nine-game losing streak, so look for the Bears to win this one in dominating fashion. The Bears and their season will come crumbling down next week on the road in Detroit.

SEATTLE (PICK) over San Francisco: I could see the Niners winning this game on the road, but the Seahawks are really playing well at this point. Seattle won't catch San Francisco for the division because the Niners finish up with Arizona at home, but the Seahawks will solidify their wild card spot with a win on Sunday Night Football.

Cleveland (+13) over DENVER: The Broncos have been on such a roll every time I pick against them in the spread, so how could I go against the grain? The Broncos have the inside track on the 2 seed in the AFC, and a first round bye. The prize for all of that: Most likely hosting the Patriots in the Divisional Round. That won't be very fun, but we will have plenty of time to talk about that down the road. Denver has to take of their last two games, both at home, and it starts with the Browns this week. Clearly Denver is the better team, and their defense should matchup favorably against rookie QB Brandon Weeden. The Broncos should win the game, but you know how the NFL goes. This one could be a lot closer than you think. Maybe Peyton Manning drives the Broncos 98 yards in the last five minutes to win it.

Final Score: Denver-23- Cleveland-20

Saturday Night Pick

Atlanta (-3) over DETROIT: The Falcons need a win here to clinch homefield throughout the playoffs in the NFC. The Lions are finishing off a very disappointing season after making the playoffs last year. I'll take the Falcons laying three points, and I'll look for the Lions to play spoiler next week at home against the Bears.

Broncos Pound Ravens With #2 Seed in Sight

As the Broncos continued to pile up win after win the past eight weeks, a lot of skeptics around the league were questioning the quality of the teams that the Broncos were beating. The Broncos needed a statement win over a quality opponent to really solidify their contender status. Well, they got that statement win as the Broncos pounded the Ravens in Baltimore 34-17 on Sunday to run their record to 11-3. The Niners defeated the Patriots on Sunday night, and the Broncos now are in the driver's seat for the number 2 seed in the AFC. Granted, the Ravens are really beat up on defense, and Ray Lewis didn't play in this game. The Ravens also fired offensive coordinator Cam Cameron during the week, and the Ravens offense looked very shaky throughout. The Broncos were able to jump out to a 10-0 lead, and then a play that might be the highlight of the season occurred: Chris Harris perfectly stepped in front of a Joe Flacco pass and picked it off and raced 98 yards down the sideline to give the Broncos a 17-0 lead near the end of the half. The Ravens were finally moving the ball effectively, and a score there makes it 10-7 with Baltimore getting the ball in the second half. Harris' return was a great play on his part, and it completely took the life out of the Ravens and that building. The Broncos kept the pressure on in the second half, and Peyton Manning put the game away with a gorgeous 51 yard touchdown pass down the sideline to Eric Decker to make it 24-3. Denver's defense got the ball back to their offense, and Knowshon Moreno capped off that drive with a walk-in 6 yard run to make it 31-3. When the dust settled on the game, the Broncos completely dismantled the Ravens on offense and defense, and it looked like two teams going in the opposite directions. It was nice to finally see Denver go into Baltimore and completely dominate the Ravens for a change Here are my thoughts and observations from the game.....

1) It was apparent early on that the Broncos were going to be able to run the ball at will on the Ravens defense. Knowshon Moreno finished with 118 yards on 22 carries and a touchdown. He ran hard all day, and his leap over Ed Reed was the highlight of the afternoon. It was eye-opening to see how the Broncos just mowed down the Ravens front seven.

2) Manning did what he had to do in this game. He was asked basically just to manage the game. He picked up key third downs, and his numbers won't tell the story of how well he played (17-28 204 yards and 1 touchdown). His throw to Decker was perfect to put them up 24-3, and his throw up the seam to Joel Dreessen was a perfect throw. That throw set up the Moreno touchdown to make it 31-3.

3) It is nice to see Eric Decker back into the fold. Decker had his second straight big game. He finished with 8 catches and 133 yards and a touchdown. Manning constantly went to him in key situations, and he was open all day long in his matchup against Cary Williams.

4) The best defensive player not named Von Miller on the Broncos is Chris Harris. What a find this guy has been? Last year, he was really solid as a nickel corner. This year, he steps in as the starting corner and has been playing at a Pro Bowl level. His pick-six of Flacco was a great play, and could be one of the biggest plays of the year for the Broncos. He continues to play at a high level each and every week.

5) The Broncos defense completely just shut down the Ravens all day long. Forget about the garbage touchdowns from Flacco and Dennis Pitta. The Broncos defense is legitimate and once they get a lead, then they seem to tee off. They also seem to get turnovers and even score touchdowns to add to their lead.

6) The statement win on Sunday leaves the Broncos in the driver's seat for the number 2 seed in the AFC. I don't want to look too far ahead, but it is clear that the Broncos and Patriots are heading for a showdown in the divisional round of the playoffs. If Denver can win their next two at home, then they will have the bye and the chance to host the Pats instead of having to travel to Foxborough. The Broncos host the feisty Browns this Sunday at home, and it is the first step to getting that all important bye and home game.

Broncos Seeding Scenarios and Week 15 Picks!

The Broncos have clinched the AFC West and a playoff spot, but now it is time to focus on what seed they will be come January. This game against Baltimore will have major implications down the road, but it will also be significant based on what New England does Sunday night. Forget about Houston and the number 1 seed because I can't see the Texans losing at home this week to Indy and next week to Minnesota. The focus for Denver should be on the 2 seed. If Denver can beat Baltimore and the Niners can beat the Patriots, then Denver can grab the number 2 spot if they win out. The Broncos host Cleveland and Kansas City at home to finish off the season. If the Patriots win Sunday night, then forget about the 2 seed because the Pats have Jacksonville and Miami the last two weeks. If Denver loses to Baltimore, they can still get the 3 seed because the Ravens have to play the Giants and at Cincy the last two weeks. Denver can still finish ahead of them in the won-loss category. If you are a Broncos fan and your are looking at the best path to get to the Super Bowl, then hope Denver wins on Sunday, and the Patriots get beat at home by the Niners on Sunday night.

Onto the picks for an epic Week 15........
Last Week's Record: 9-6-1
Overall Record: 96-101-9
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

CHICAGO (+3) over Green Bay: Packers-Bears with the NFC North on the line in December from Soldier Field. You really can't go wrong with this game. The Bears come limping in at 8-5, and they have lost four out of their last five games. The Bears look like they could be in full collapse mode, but they get the host the Packers and have a chance to somehow right the ship. The Packers come in at 9-4 with the division in their grasp, but the Packers still don't look like a dominant team. Maybe they are going to get it when the playoffs start, but they just don't seem like the same team. It is a tough game to call, but my instinct is telling me that the Bears will rise up and find a way to win this game. They looked out of sorts last week in Minnesota, but Chicago will pull of a mild upset.

ATLANTA (-1) over New York Giants: This game reminds me of a game that the Giants played back in December of 2005. The Giants went into Seattle for a huge game, and the Seahawks were the number one team in the NFC, but no one really believed that they were that good. The G-Men came in and completely outplayed the Seahawks, but they missed three field goals, and the Giants lost a heartbreaker in overtime. This game could be a carbon copy of that Seattle game, and I think the Falcons win it by at least a field goal.

NEW ORLEANS (-3) over Tampa Bay: The Bucs blew a 21-10 lead to the Eagles last week and lost on the last play of the game. That was a damaging blow to the Bucs playoff hopes. The Saints are pretty much done at 5-8, but I have a feeling that they will play really well down the stretch. With Paul Tagliabue overruling Roger Goodell's bounty ruling, don't you get the feeling that the Saints will somehow play inspired these last three weeks? I do and the Saints will take down the Bucs at home to put Tampa's playoffs hopes to rest.

Minnesota (+3) over ST. LOUIS: If I told you in September that the Vikings and Rams would be playing a game in December with playoff ramifications, then you would have thought that I was out of my mind. That is why you love the NFL. The resurgent Rams find themselves in the thick of the wild card race, and Minnesota comes off an impressive win over the Bears. Fun game to watch, and I think the Vikings get to 8-6 behind Adrian Peterson's legs.

CLEVELAND (+1) over Washington: Tough game to call because of the injury to Robert Griffin III. We won't know if he will start the game until Sunday, and right now it is up in the air. The Skins come in with four straight wins, and they are in the thick of the wild card hunt, and they even win the NFC East. The Browns come in with three wins in a row. Could the Browns actually win four straight? They might be able to because of the injury to RG III. Even if Griffin plays, the Browns could still win this game outright. Look for Cleveland to pull out a close one late in the Dawg Pound.

MIAMI (-7) over Jacksonville: The Dolphins have played way above their preseason expectations, but they still find themselves at 5-8. They should be able to feast on the hapless Jaguars in Miami this week to get to a respectable 6-8.

Indy (+9) over HOUSTON: The Texans will bounce back from their thrashing at New England Monday night and win this game, but look for it to be closer than the spread indicates. The Texans are still in line for the number one seed in the AFC, but the Colts are surging at 9-4. The Colts will get their 10th win next week at Kansas City, but they fall short of the upset in Houston this week. Nine points is too big of a spread for this game, and with Andrew Luck you always have the possibility of the backdoor cover. This feels like a 30-23 Houston win.

SAN DIEGO (-3) over Carolina: The Chargers upset the Steelers last week, and come into this game at 5-8. The Panthers are playing out the string at 4-9. Two teams that will most likely have new coaches next year battle in a meaningless contest. Look for the Chargers to get the win at home.

BUFFALO (+6) over Seattle: The Bills were a big disappointment for me this season. It is clear that they have to address their quarterback position in the offseason. Seattle will win this game outright, but don't be surprised if the Bills keep themselves hanging around late in the fourth quarter.

Detroit (-5) over ARIZONA: Easy game to pick because the Lions should have a better record that 4-9. They lost a lot of tough games late, and Matt Stafford and Calvin Johnson can simply take the game over. The Cards are so bad at QB that it is going to cost Ken Whisenhunt his job. Look for an easy win by the Lions.

Pittsburgh (-1) over DALLAS: Fascinating game between two of the NFL's most popular franchises. Both come in at 7-6 and both teams need a win big time to stay in the NFL playoff hunt. Dallas is usually a big favorite at home, but this week they are home underdogs. It is kind of a toss up for me, but I'll take Big Ben and the Steelers to win a close one.

OAKLAND (-3) over Kansas City: Two shit teams at the bottom of the barrel in the AFC West. Maybe this is the week that the Raiders snap their losing streak.

San Francisco (+6) over NEW ENGLAND: Great game on Sunday Night Football. This line is too high. When you have a great offense going up against a great defense, you always side with the defense. Look at Super Bowl XLII when the Pats got suffocated all day by that Giants pass rush. Look at Super Bowl XXXVI when the Pats turned the tables on the Rams prolific offense. The Niners defense can bring it and they will on Sunday night.

TENNESSEE (-1) over New York Jets: The Jets find themselves alive in the playoff picture, but this could be a tricky one on Monday Night. I love how Mark Sanchez said that he likes where the Jets were headed and how he thinks they are on a hot streak right now. Really? They beat Arizona 7-6 at home, a game where Sanchez was benched, and they struggled to beat the Jags 17-10. Take the Titans and look for Chris Johnson to carve up the Jets defense.

BALTIMORE (+2) over Denver: Tough game for Denver for the following reasons: First, can't you see Joe Flacco coming out on fire the week after Cam Cameron gets fired as offensive coordinator? Second, the Ravens are a completely different team at home. Third, Ray Rice is due for a 29 carry 165 yard day against the Broncos defense. Lastly, Denver's offense has gone through stretches where they have been sloppy and out of sync, and this might be the week that it comes back to bite them in the ass. Look for the Ravens to put their best effort together on Sunday, and it might be too difficult for Denver to overcome.

Final Score: Ravens-27 Denver-17

Week 15 Thursday Night Football Pick

Cincinnati(-4) over PHILADELPHIA: The Eagles broke their eight game losing streak with a stunning, comeback win over the contending Buccaneers on the last play of the game. At 4-9, can the Eagles win a few more games the next three weeks? It is certainly possible, but I think last week's game was their moment to play the role of spoiler. In other words, I just don't think it is happening this week. The Bengals are coming off a bad loss to Dallas, and they desperately need a win here to stay in contention for the six seed in the AFC. Cincy takes care of business and gets a much needed 8th win on Thursday night.

Broncos-Raiders Review and Week 14 Picks

Before we get to the Week 14 picks, let's dive into the Broncos win over the Raiders on Thursday night. Denver was able to leave Oakland with a 26-13 win and a 10-3 record. The Broncos jumped out to a 13-0 lead early, but the Raiders were able to fight back and make it a 13-7 game at the half. The second half belonged to the Broncos as they built on their lead and increased it to 26-7. I never felt that the Broncos were in any danger of losing this game, and it was a good, solid win on a short week against a divisional opponent. The Broncos offense moved the ball at will all night, and if it weren't for some redzone issues, the game would have been decided by a lot more points. Denver's defense was superb once again, and Von Miller got the key sack and turnover late in the third quarter to set up another Denver touchdown to put the game out of reach. Here are my quick thoughts and observations on the game....

1) The only thing that slowed down the Broncos offense was themselves. Peyton Manning had a big night through the air. He passed for over 310 yards and added a sweet touchdown toss to Joel Dreessen on the first drive of the game. The Raiders clamped down in the redzone, but Manning was on target most of the night with the exception coming on an interception deep in Raider territory. Overall, it was a good night for Manning and that Bronco offense.

2) Knowshon Moreno had over 119 yards on 32 carries on the night, and the added 48 yards receiving. He was able to run between the tackles very effectively, and it felt like he gained positive yardage everytime he touched the ball. His 1-yard touchdown run in the third quarter effectively put the game away. He really displayed some tough, hard running, and that is something that the Broncos desperately need.

3) Eric Decker got back into the mix this week. He finished with 8 catches for 88 yards, and he had some big time plays on 3rd down. His over the shoulder catch from Manning in the third quarter was a thing of beauty. It was nice to see him contribute more in this game than he has contributed in the past month.

4) Von Miller is my NFL Defensive Player of the Year. He comes up with a game-changing sack every week. This week was no different. With the Broncos up 16-7, and the Raiders pinned deep in their own end, Miller flew around the edge and sacked Carson Palmer, forced a fumble, and Denver pounced on it at the Raider one yard line. Denver scored a touchdown two plays later and that was the game. Forget about the number of sacks, he makes a big, game-altering play every single week. The guy is unreal.

5) Champ Bailey had another big turnover for the Broncos too. Down 10-0, the Raiders started to move the ball on the Denver defense. Deep in Denver territory, Carson Palmer looked for a deep seam to the endzone when Bailey read it, stepped in front, and picked it off on the run. It was a big drive killer, and it led to a Broncos field goal and a 13-0 lead.

6) Matt Prater needed a game to get out of his slump and this might have been the week. He kicked four field goals and gave the Broncos points every time their offense stalled. Hopefully, this is what he needed to get his confidence back.

7) Denver did not lose a fumble for the second straight game, but Trindon Holliday did fumble a punt that was recovered by Denver's Tony Carter. Holliday seems to be good for at least one fumble a game, but let's hope it doesn't happen in the playoffs. Why do I have a feeling Holliday might end up killing our season in January?

8) This Broncos defense doesn't get the national credit it deserves, but it is playing lights out. They seem to go on stretches where they completely shut down an opposing team's offense for a series of drives. Case in point: Denver is leading 13-7 at halftime, and the Raiders are starting with the ball. Denver's defense must make a stop, and they do. They force a punt and give the ball back to the Broncos offense. That it was I want out of a defense: Key stops at critical moments. The Broncos seem to do that a lot this year.

9) At 10-3, the Broncos are fighting for playoff seeding. With 10 days to rest, they head to Baltimore to take on the Ravens in a game that will have huge implications in the AFC Playoff picture.  The Broncos can rest up, get healthy, and get ready for a game that will feel and look like a playoff matchup.

10) This is the best Broncos season up to this point since 1998. 2005 was special but we all knew that the Jake Plummer-led Broncos were overachieving all year. Last year, was all about Tebowmania, and that was a fantastic ride, but everyone knew the Broncos weren't going to the Super Bowl. This could actually be the year. At some point I want to put this season into a historical perspective, but I want to wait because there are still three games left to play. Let's put it this way: I pinch myself every week that Peyton Manning is the Broncos QB. This season has been an absolute blessing as a Broncos fan.


Onto the picks for Week 14....

Last Week's Record: 10-6
Overall Record: 87-95-8
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

WASHINGTON (-2) over Baltimore: The Skins are back in the playoff hunt at 6-6, and the 9-3 Ravens come to town. If you look at the Ravens all year, they haven't looked impressive except for two wins (home against Cincy in Week 1 and home against the hapless Raiders). They needed a 4th and 29 gift to beat San Diego a few weeks ago. On the road, the Ravens and Joe Flacco really struggle on the road. I think the Redskins are hot, and RG III has his game going. I think the Skins win this game late.

CLEVELAND (-6) over Kansas City: The Browns have been really competitive all year long. If they end up firing Pat Shurmur, the new head coach will have something to work with. You have to love Trent Richardson and what he is doing as a rookie. They will take care of business and beat the Chiefs handily on Sunday to get to 5-8.

PITTSBURGH (-7) over San Diego: The Chargers are playing out the string at 4-8. Norv Turner is on his way out, and it could be rebuilding time in San Diego. The Steelers get Big Ben back this week and that will prove to be a major difference. Pittsburgh's defense is starting to get healthy and they are starting to play vintage Steeler defense. The Steelers get to 8-5 with a convincing win at home.

Tennessee (+6) over INDY: I know I have picked the Titans a lot this year and have gotten burned, but the Colts are due for a letdown week. After last week's amazing comeback win over the Lions, the Colts will struggle this week unexpectedly. These two teams played in a overtime thriller earlier in the year, but I'll take the Titans to keep it close on the road.

New York Jets (-3) over JACKSONVILLE: Mark Sanchez got benched last week, and Greg McElroy led the comeback over the Cardinals. Rex Ryan decides to go back to Sanchez this week against the hapless Jaguars. I would love to see a Jacksonville upset here, but I just can't expect it to happen. The Jets will win this game on the road and become the worst 6-7 team in NFL history.

Chicago (-3) over MINNESOTA: I don't trust Christian Ponder. Without Percy Harvin, Ponder is lost and everything falls on Adrian Peterson. The Bears are reeling, but they will find a way to win this one late. This looks like a 24-17 win for the Bears on a late Jay Cutler to Brandon Marshall hookup.

CAROLINA (+4) over Atlanta: The upset of the week goes to the Panthers. Are you really scared of the 11-1 Falcons? No one is afraid of them, and Carolina pulls off the shocker at home on the heels of a  video game performance by Cam Newton.

TAMPA BAY (-7) over Philly: Who cares about the Eagles because they are awful. Tampa Bay wins easily at home and they will improve to 7-6 and set themselves up for a wild card run the last three weeks.

St. Louis (+3) over BUFFALO: The Bills were on of my wildcard picks in the AFC this year, but I don't see them running the table and getting in at 9-7. They need to address the QB position in the offseason. The Rams are playing hard, and at 5-6-1, they are actually in the hunt for a wildcard. They won't get there this season, but they will win a critical road game this week in Buffalo.

Dallas (+3) over CINCY: The Cowboys are still alive at 6-6. The Bengals are in the middle of the playoff fight at 7-5. This is a huge game for both teams and it should be a good one. I'll go with the Cowboys on the road because that is where they are the most dangerous. The Bengals are the better team, but look for Dallas to find a way to win this game. This feels like a 26-23 game either way.

Miami (+10) over SAN FRANCISCO: A rematch of Super Bowl XIX, but instead of Joe Montana and Dan Marino, we have Colin Kaerpernick and Ryan Tannehill. I don't like the 49ers this year as big favorites.

NY GIANTS (-4) over New Orleans: The Saints are done at 5-7. A lot of people expect the Saints to give the G-Men all they can handle this week, but I don't see it. The Giants have been beat up by the Saints the last few years, but they get the wounded Saints in their building. The Giants will put a whipping on this week in the Meadowlands.

SEATTLE (-9) over Arizona: Bad matchup for the Cardinals. I really feel bad with Ken Whisenhunt. He is a good coach, but he had to coach some of the shittiest QBs that I could ever remember in the NFL. Now they have to go Seattle to take on that nasty defense. Seattle's win over the Bears was tremendous, and I would expect them to really beat up on the Cards this week to get to 8-5.

Detroit (+7) over GREEN BAY: I think the Packers win this game, but for some reason this game will be close. The Lions are not as bad as their 4-8 record indicates, but with Matt Stafford and Calvin Johnson they are always dangerous. It looks like Jordy Nelson will be out this week, and I could just see the Packers having a tough time pulling it out.

Houston (+4) over NEW ENGLAND: This is a great game for Monday Night Football this week. 11-1 Houston heads to Foxborough to take on the 9-3 Patriots. Huge game in the AFC. I know the Pats are at home, and the Texans are banged up on defense, but if Houston can control the ball with that running game, it will set up everything in their play action game. You know that the Texans can get the ball downfield on this Patriots defense. This should be a great game, but I have a sneaky feeling that the  Texans will win this game and it might even be in a convincing fashion.

Week 14 TNF Pick: Broncos-Raiders

OAKLAND (+10) over Denver: It will be interesting to see how the Broncos play after already clinching the AFC West. They travel to Oakland on a short week to take on a putrid Raiders team. This game has all the makings of a classic Peyton Manning four-touchdown romp. It also has the makings of  a home underdog playing a team that already clinched the division. There is no in between in this game. It is either going to be a rout by the Broncos or the Raiders will win it on a late field goal. I'm not sure how the Broncos will respond in this one, so I have to take the Raiders and the points.

Broncos Beat Bucs to Clinch AFC West!

Last year, the Broncos won the AFC West because the Raiders were upset by San Diego in Week 17. Denver backed into the playoffs, and there were no cigars and champagne in the locker room. This year it is different-vastly different. The Broncos defeated the Buccaneers 31-23 on Sunday to clinch the AFC West for the second straight year. At 9-3, the Broncos wrapped up the division by the first weekend of December, and now the Broncos can set their sights towards playoff seeding and positioning. We will talk about how Denver can move up in the AFC standings, but Sunday's win is the focus here. The Broncos trailed 10-7 at halftime, but the third quarter was the key in this game. Peyton Manning began to systematically pick apart the Buccaneers secondary on back-to-back drives to  start the quarter. An 8-yard touchdown pass to Demaryius Thomas gave Denver a 14-10 lead. After a Tampa Bay punt, Manning hit Thomas once again on a 10-yard hookup to give Denver a 21-10. Just like that the game was out of reach. Von Miller put the nail in the coffin with a 26-yard interception return to make it 28-10. The Bucs did close the gap late in the game, and they scored a garbage time touchdown late to make it a 31-23 game. Denver recovered the onside kick, and Peyton Manning survived a Greg Schiano kneel down attack to put the finishing touches on the division clinching win. After everything that happened in the offseason, the Broncos were able to accomplish their first goal. If anyone had doubts about the acquisition of Peyton Manning, then I think this season vindicated that move completely. Congratulations to the 2012 Denver Broncos on their AFC West title. Now, the Broncos head to the next step in their journey. Here are my thoughts and observations about the game....

1) Once again the Broncos offense started slow. Although they scored a touchdown (Manning to Mitch Unrein!) on a well-executed first drive, the Broncos went into a slump for the rest of the half. I still don't know why the Broncos can't get a first down on a third and short. It didn't work in the first half, and it won't work the rest of this year. Also, I still don't understand why Manning still checks into a run play on third and long. It hasn't worked all year, and it didn't work again in the first half on Sunday.

2) The best play of the first half for the Broncos was when Manning hurried the offense to the line on a third and long as the Buccaneers were trying to sub defensive backs in for defensive linemen. Manning snapped the ball right away and handed it to Knowshon Moreno. Moreno only gained a few yards, but Denver challenged and caught Tampa with 12 men on the field. The penalty gave the Broncos a cheap first down. Great play by Manning.

3) The defense continues to impress. After allowing 10 points in the first quarter, they clamped down and got key stops in the second and third quarter. They held Doug Martin to 56 yards rushing, Vincent Jackson to 3 catches for 55 yards, and they got after Josh Freeman all day long. The Bucs offense had been on fire the last month, and Denver's defense was up to the task. They held Tampa to 3-12 on third down conversions, and they added another defensive touchdown with Von Miller's pick-six that put the game out of reach. Forget about the 10 points scored in garbage time, this defense was stout on Sunday and it is definitely for real.

4) Peyton Manning shook off an average first half and came out in the second half and was on fire. He finished the day 27-38 for 242 yards and 3 touchdowns and 1 interception. He took what the Bucs gave him and he cut them up in the middle of the field. His two touchdown throws to Demaryius Thomas were really sweet plays. Manning is just incredible, and he broke John Elway and Jake Plummer's record for touchdown passes in a season. Manning has 29 and he still has four more games to go. It is just enjoyable to watch him play every week.

5) Knowshon Moreno added 69 yards on 20 carries. It wasn't a great day, but it was enough. It is obvious how much better Willis McGahee is but you'll take what you can get from Moreno at this point.

6) Demaryius Thomas has firmly entrenched himself as the number one receiver on this team. He had a big day on Sunday with 8 catches for 99 yards and two touchdowns. It seems like Thomas and Manning have really figured each other out, and they have become a nightmare for opposing secondaries. Interestingly, Eric Decker continues to be a non-factor in the passing game. Decker only caught two passes on the day, and it just seems that Decker is not the top option in this offense right now. It think it could still change by the end of the season, but the Broncos passing game goes through Thomas and whoever else gets hot in that game. That could be Jacob Tamme, Joel Dreessen, Brandon Stokley, or Decker.

7) Von Miller gets my vote for Defensive Player of the Year. He added a sack and a forced fumble to his interception return. He is unbelievable, and if you watch him on every play, he impacts the game somehow.

8) The refs were awful in this game. They called so many ticky-tack penalties that it completey ruined the flow of the game.

9) Matt Prater continues to struggle and he missed another field goal. He has missed at least one kick in each of the last four games. He has to get straightened out because his leg will decide a big game or playoff game down the road.

10) The feeling of this division title is so different than last year. Last year, it felt cheap to win the division by backing in, but I accepted it and moved on to the playoffs. This year, we had taken control of the division, and finished off the division on the first opportunity that we could do it. A lot of people didn't think the Broncos would make the playoffs in Peyton Manning's first year, but they were able to prove those people wrong. Last year, I didn't even buy the division championship t-shirt and hat because  there is really no reason to do that when you win your division at 8-8. This year, the Broncos clinched so early that I can get the t-shirt and hat as a Christmas gift. Also, I am happy that the Broncos won the division-only the second time in franchise history that they won back-to-back division titles-but it isn't the ultimate goal. You know that the Broncos have a real shot to go to the Super Bowl this year, so the division title is nice but there are other goals to accomplish.

11) The Broncos, 9-3, now head to Oakland to take on the Raiders on Thursday night. The Broncos will be fighting for seeding now, and they look to win their eighth game in a row.

NFL Week 13 Picks

There is nothing better than putting up your Christmas lights, cranking up the fireplace, and watching big, late-season games in the NFL. It is also an extra treat if your team is fighting not only for a playoff spot but for seeding and home playoff games. As a Broncos fan, it was something that you were accustomed to with the John Elway Era Broncos. It hasn't been that way since Elway retired. Yes, the Mike Shanahan Era provided plenty of years where the Broncos were fighting for a playoff spot, but nothing has been compared to this year with the Peyton Manning-led Broncos. In the Elway years, the Broncos were positioning themselves for home-field advantage and playoff seeding. That is what this year feels like. The Broncos are 8-3, lead the AFC West, and are riding a six-game winning streak. They can actually clinch the AFC West with a win this week at home against Tampa Bay, and there are still games left to play that will enable them to gain a valuable playoff seed. We know that nothing is guaranteed for the Broncos at this point, but just to have this opportunity at this point in the season is special. Throw in the holidays as a backdrop, and you get to have some fun the next month with the Broncos. It is a fun time of the year, and having your team fighting for a playoff berth makes it so much better. Onto the picks for Week 13....

Last Week's Record: 7-8-1
Overall Record: 77-89-8
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

Seattle (+4) over CHICAGO: The Seahawks really suck on the road, and we know that is a big problem for them, but they are due for a big road win. They got screwed last week with a really bad roughing the passer call last week against Miami with a 14-7 lead and a turnover in the endzone. This week they travel to Chicago, and no one expects them to win this tough matchup. I love the matchup with the Seattle defense against that porous Bears offensive line. I think the Seahawks find a way to win this game, and it starts with their defense.

GREEN BAY (-7) over Minnesota: I know the Packers looked bad on Sunday night in their loss agains the Giants, but they will take care of business at home against the Vikings. At 6-5, the Vikings are dangerous, but I don't like what I see from Christian Ponder. Take the Packers to get back on track with a big home win.

San Francisco (-6) over ST.LOUIS: Give Jim Harbaugh credit for going with Colin Kaepernick and putting Alex Smith back on the bench. I expect Kaepernick to have a rough game one of these weeks, but the Niners have too much for the Rams this week, and Kaepernick keeps the run going.

NY JETS (-4) over Arizona: The Jets were utterly disgraceful against the Pats on Thanksgiving night, but they get a gift this week with the Cardinals coming to town. The Jets will overwhelm the Cards and their putrid offense at home this week. If the Jets lose, then heads might roll, but they will win easily.

KANSAS CITY (+4) over Carolina: The Chiefs played hard in their loss to Denver last week, and I think they will find a way to win their second game of the season this week. Kansas City is due for win at Arrowhead, and I think they get it this week.

DETROIT (-4) over Indy: The Lions are a mess, and they blew so many chances to beat the Texans on Thanksgiving. I'm nervous about this game because I can see the Colts winning this game by a touchdown, but the Lions will find a way to exploit the Colts secondary with Calvin Johnson. It is a tough game to call, but take the Lions at home.

BUFFALO (-5) over Jacksonville: Chad Henne has proven how bad Blaine Gabbert actually was for the Jags. They have been competitive since Henne took over for Gabbert. The Bills lost another tough game last week at Indy, and they have disappointed me a lot this year. They will do enough to win this game by at least a touchdown this week.

MIAMI (+9) over New England: The Patriots look like the best team in the AFC, but this game could be tricky. History has shown that home underdogs getting a lot of points is a safe bet, and I'll take the Dolphins to keep this game closer than people think.

Houston (-6) over TENNESSEE: The Texans will definitely get the #1 seed in the AFC. A win here over the Titans will help them get there, and I just can't see the Titans covering in this spot.

Pittsburgh (+8) over BALTIMORE: Big Ben is out, and the Ravens will most likely win this game, but Baltimore just doesn't blow people out. Everyone expects a big Ravens win over the Steelers this week, but I'll take the points and bet that Pittsburgh will keep it close.

Cleveland (PICK) over Oakland: The Raiders have fallen apart-especially on defense. The Browns have at least been feisty at times this year, and I think they will win this game on the road. The Raiders needed this year just to evaluate and find a way to rebuild this franchise from the ground up. Take the Browns to win it.

SAN DIEGO (+3) over Cincy: Why do I keep picking the Chargers? They have failed miserably this year, and Norv Turner is on his way out.  For some reason, I am going to take San Diego to upset the surging Bengals. I know that Cincy is playing well, but look for a letdown from them this week out on the West Coast.

DALLAS (-9) over Philly: The Cowboys have been very disappointing this year, and their track record as a home favorite is pretty ugly. At 5-6, they are still in the wildcard mix in the NFC, and they are bound to cover one of these games at home as a heavy favorite.

WASHINGTON (+3) over New York Giants: I love this matchup. RG III is one of the most exciting players to watch in the league right now, and the last time these two teams played it was a thriller that the Giants won in New Jersey. This should be a fun one to watch, and I'll take the Skins to pull it out late and get themselves to 6-6.

Tampa Bay (+7) over DENVER: It is not easy to win two games in a row in the NFL, and the Broncos are currently riding a six game winning streak. At some point, a team is bound to have a stinker. Now, the surprising Bucs come to town at 6-5. Josh Freeman is a really talented quarterback, and Vincent Jackson scares the heck out of me. Throw in the Doug Martin factor, and the Bucs can move the ball on offense. This is a tough game for the Broncos, and I see it being a close one throughout. I can see the Bucs pulling this one out late.

Final Score: Tampa Bay-28 Denver-24

Week 13 Thursday Night Pick

ATLANTA (-3) over New Orleans: The Falcons should have won their earlier meeting a few weeks ago, and they will push the Saints to the brink of elimination with a big win in the Georgia Dome this Thursday.

Broncos Grind Out Win over Chiefs 17-9

There are no guarantees in the NFL. There are also no style points either. This is not college football. You don't need to impress the voters or computer rankings. As long as your team is on the winning side of the ledger, you have to be happy and move on to the next one. The Broncos 17-9 win over the Chiefs on Sunday was a perfect example of that view. The Broncos were double digit favorites on the road against a hapless, 1-9 team. It looked like it would be an easy Denver win, but it certainly didn't turn out that way. The Chiefs jumped to a 6-0 lead early, and after the Broncos took a 7-6 lead going into halftime, Kansas City was able to take a 9-7 lead late in the third quarter. Peyton Manning drove the Broncos down the field and hit Demaryius Thomas on a perfect 30-yard throw down the sideline to give the Broncos a 14-9 lead. After a drive in which the Broncos chewed up the clock, gained valuable first downs, and added a field goal to their lead, the Broncos took a 17-9 lead and eventually put the Chiefs away for good. It wasn't the prettiest, but it was a key victory for the Broncos, who now are riding a six-game winning streak to lead them to a 8-3 and sole possession of the AFC West. Divisional road games are never easy, and although this was a challenging game, the Broncos were able to do what they had to do. Here are my thoughts and observations on this week's game..........

1) The Chiefs looked fresh, fast, and ready to play to start the game off. On the other hand, the Broncos looked slow and tired in the first quarter. Jamaal Charles was able to find room against this Broncos rush defense, and the Chiefs ran the ball down the Broncos throats the first two series. Thankfully, the Broncos defense was able to get the red zone stops that they needed to make, and they forced the Chiefs into two field goals. Instead of maybe being down 14-0 or 10-0, the Broncos were only down two field goals. Those were two big stops.

2) For the third game in a row the Broncos offense started slow, and they didn't put together a great performance overall. Key drops once again killed a few drives, and Peyton Manning forced a deep ball into double coverage in the second quarter. The Broncos offense is not clicking on all cylinders right now, but when they need a big drive to kill the clock or get points, they are able to do just that. The offense was bottled up for most of the first half, but a great drive near the end of the half was capped off by a Peyton Manning to Jacob Tamme 7-yard touchdown pass to give Denver a 7-6 lead at halftime.

3) Matt Prater is also in a slump as well. He missed two field goals this week. The second miss was a big one because it was a chip shot (33 yards), and it would have given the Broncos a 10-6 lead.

4) The defense got gashed early on, and they had trouble covering Tony Moeaki in the first half, but the defense tightened up, and they were able to shut down the Chiefs and their conservative game plan. They only gave up the three field goals, and they were able to get the key stops at the key moment.

5) People were criticizing Romeo Crennel for not electing to go for two fourth and short situations deep in Denver territory in the first quarter. Although I was surprised that he didn't go for it in one of those situations, it is not like it was a slam dunk that they were going to get it. Denver's defense has a habit of getting chewed up on a series, but then they tighten up in critical downs. It is easy to criticize Crennel for his decisions, but you have to look at the other side as well.

6) How about the Knowshon Moreno sighting from Sunday? It was revealed that Moreno was actually going to start the game early on Sunday morning. Moreno rushed for 85 yards on 20 carries, and he added 26 yards on four catches. He looked fresh and he looked pretty good in the run game. I was happy for him, and I am looking forward to seeing him continue to get better every week. Maybe this will be a turning point in his young career.

7) The Broncos were playing their third road game in four weeks. Also, it was their third game in four weeks in the early time slot in the Eastern or Central time zone. You could tell the Broncos were tired and flat. It looked like their third road game in four weeks, but they were able to settle down and eventually win a tough game on the road against a division rival.

8) At 8-3, the Broncos have a commanding lead in the AFC West. The Chargers are in second place with a 4-7 record. It would have to take the Broncos to suffer one of the all-time worst collapses in sports history for their stranglehold on this division to disappear. The key thing here is that the Broncos can actually clinch the AFC West with a win at home this week against the Bucs. It would be fitting to see them clinch the division with a big win at home on Sunday. Last year the Broncos clinched the AFC West after losing a brutal game to the Chiefs on the final day only because the Raiders lost to the Chargers. It wasn't the celebration that you would expect from a team who just won a division, and it was the true definition of anti-climatic. It sure would be sweet to get a nice win at home against Tampa Bay, and celebrate the division title the right way.

Week 12 Picks!

Another Thanksgiving has come and gone, and we now head into the weekend with some big games on tap for Week 12. Before we get to the picks, there are a few things about Thanksgiving Day games and following weekend that I would like to address. First, I have no problem keeping the tradition of the Lions and Cowboys both hosting the day games on Turkey Day. There are so many traditions that get thrown out, so we should be able to keep some traditions around. You need tradition on Thanksgiving-especially with football. It is sad to see a traditional Thanksgiving game in college like Texas-Texas A&M disappear because of the ridiculous conference realignment in the NCAA. I'm happy that the NFL has been able to keep the Lions and Cowboys as hosts during the day. I hope the league doesn't every decide to stray away from that. Also, the Thanksgiving Night game that was added in 2006 is a brilliant move. There is so much hustle and bustle going on during the day, and it is great to come home and look forward to a primetime game to finish off the holiday. Obviously, this year's game between the Pats and Jets was a blowout, but I loved the matchup going into the night. My only suggestion for Thanksgiving Night and the rest of the NFL games on that weekend is that the NFL should do everything in their power to have all divisional matchups, and to try and schedule as many rivalry games as possible that week. For example, this year we had Pats-Jets as the night game, so next year make it Steelers-Ravens. The year after that make it Broncos-Raiders, the next year could feature Philly-Giants and so on. Make that primetime game a big time rivalry game every year. Then, continue that divisional/rivalry setup for the games on Sunday. Include all division games and try to pit games involving those great rivalries every year. How great would it be to know that Thanksgiving weekend meant the Broncos and Chiefs would be playing every year? I know it hard to do because of the fact that one AFC team has to play the Cowboys or Lions every year on Thanksgiving, but you can still schedule at least 90% of the slate with divisional rivalries. It is definitely something that the league needs to look into. We need to insert more tradition back into a great football weekend. Now, onto the picks for Week 12.....

Last Week's Record: 7-5-2
Thanksgiving Record: 0-2-1
Overall Record: 70-83-8
(HOME TEAMS IN CAPS)

Oakland (+9) over CINCY: The Bengals have gotten themselves back into the playoff picture after winning two games in a row and are 5-5. They are definitely becoming a trendy pick to get the sixth seed in the AFC. This week the Raiders have come to town. Oakland is limping in at 3-7, and they have given up 55 and 38 points the last two weeks. How pumped are the Bengals fans after their recent resurgence and a chance to get revenge on Carson Palmer? They must be so excited because they didn't even sell out the game, and it will be blacked out in Cincy. The Raiders are a mess right now, and the Bengals will win, but I'm not laying nine points with them.

Pittsburgh (-1) over CLEVELAND: The Steelers are down to their third string quarterback as they have to dust off Charlie Batch for this week's game. I know the Browns could be dangerous in this one, but I can't shake the image of Brandon Weeden and Pat Shurmur trying to solve this Steelers defense. I'll take the Steelers laying only one point.

Buffalo (+3) over INDY: The Bills could actually make a move in this AFC playoff picture, and they can really get it going with a win over the Colts this week. The Bills moved the ball at will on the Pats two weeks ago, and I think they can exploit the Colts pass defense. Andrew Luck will move the ball on the Bills too, but look for a close game and a late win by the Bills on the road.

JACKSONVILLE (+4) over Tennessee: The Jags might have caught a break last week when Blaine Gabbert got hurt, and Chad Henne came in and light up the Texans for four touchdowns. The Jags are a hapless 1-9, but I have a feeling that they pull off the upset at home over the Titans.

CHICAGO (-3) over Minnesota: This is a tough game to call because it is unsure if Jay Cutler will play this week. The Bears offense was a non factor last week against the 49ers, but I don't think they will be that inept this week at home. The Vikings are dangerous, but take the Bears defense at home over the Vikes.

Atlanta (-1) over TAMPA BAY: The Bucs are red hot, and are now 6-4 and on the cusp of a wildcard berth. The Bucs are legitimate, but the Falcons will be able to find a way to win this game. Look for a late drive by Matt Ryan to win it by a field goal at the end.

Seattle (-3) over MIAMI: The Dolphins had faded badly, and now stand at 4-6. The book on Seattle is that they are great at home and bad on the road. This is the week that they shake off their road woes, and the Seahawks get a huge win on the road to get to 7-4.

Baltimore (-1) over SAN DIEGO: Normally, you would take the Chargers at this point because at 4-6 this is the week that they play well and beat a quality team. It has happened in the past, but this Chargers team is just not the same as it was in years past. The Ravens have been spotty at times this season, but they will take care of business on the road this week.

NEW ORLEANS (+1) over San Francisco: The Saints have battled their way to 5-5, and this game is fascinating. The Niners looked so good in their rout of the Bears last week, and they did it with backup QB Colin Kaepernick. He gets the start again this week, and I know that the Saints defense has been really bad at times this year, but I can see Kaepernick having a rough day. Tough game to call, but I see the Saints winning a close one in the dome.

St.Louis (+2) over ARIZONA: The Cards have completely fallen apart after their 4-0 start, and at 4-6 they now turn to QB Ryan Lindley. The Rams were really bad last week against the Jets, but look for Jeff Fisher and his team to rebound this week and take down the Cards on the road.

NY GIANTS (-3) over Green Bay: Great game for Sunday Night Football this week. The Packers come in red-hot at 7-3, and Aaron Rodgers looks like he is back to form after an inconsistent start. The Giants come in at 6-4 on the heels of two straight losses. This is when the Giants stand up. Everytime you count them out, they come back to win a close game. Look for the G-Men to continue that trend once again.

PHILLY(+3) over Carolina: What an awful Monday Night Football game this week. In August, this game looked great on paper. Cam Newton versus Mike Vick. An up and coming Carolina team against a perennial NFC power in Philadelphia. Now, the Eagles are a mess, Andy Reid is on his way out, Michael Vick is hurt, Cam Newton is having a bad season, and the Panthers are a disaster. I guess you go with the Eagles to win and somehow avoid a seventh straight loss.

KANSAS CITY (+10) over Denver: This game looks like a mismatch, but if you look deeper there are some things to worry about as a Broncos fan. First, the Broncos ALWAYS have trouble in Arrowhead-no matter who is the quarterback. Second, the Chiefs have not won a game at home this year, and they are due for a home win at some point. Third, you know how crazy the NFL can be. Last week the 1-8 Jags took the Texans to the limit in Houston. Lastly, I am very worried about how the loss of Willis McGahee will affect this Broncos offense. Denver's offense has not played well at all the last two games, and without McGahee I don't know if they will be able to run the ball at all with any effectiveness. McGahee's injury will also create problems in pass protection as well. The Broncos should win this game, but there are a lot of red flags out there in this game. It is not a slam dunk like many people believe.

Final Score: Chiefs-23 Broncos-21

Week 12 Thanksgiving Picks

DETROIT (+3) over Houston: Tough game to call and normally I would go against the Lions in this spot, but I have a feeling that the Lions are due for a win on Thanksgiving. They aren't close to what they were last year, there is fighting and bickering on the sidelines, but they have lost their last 8 games in a row on Turkey Day. The Texans are the better team, but they had to play an overtime game at home last week against Jacksonville, and now they have to travel to Detroit on a really short week. The Lions need the win more than Houston does, so take the home underdog.

DALLAS (-3) over Washington: The Cowboys seem to never cover at home. Last week, they squeaked by the Browns, and now they get the 4-6 Redskins. I love this matchup for Thanksgiving, and I think that this will be a really close game. Expect Robert Griffin III to put his skills on display for the national audience, but the Cowboys will find a way to win a close and exciting game. Call it 28-24 Cowboys.

JETS (+7) over New England: Here is why Jets fans drive you nuts: After falling to 3-6, Jet fans were screaming about benching Mark Sanchez, firing Mike Tannenbaum and Rex Ryan, and blowing up the franchise. After they beat the Rams on Sunday to get to 4-6, now the Jets fans are all talking about getting on a run and making the playoffs. At least that win made this game appealing for Thanksgiving night. The Pats looked great in their 59-24 win over the Colts last week, but the injury to Rob Gronkowski will be a tough one to deal with. I think the Pats win the game, but it will be close. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Jets pull off the upset.

Broncos Hold Off San Diego 30-23, Take Commanding Lead in AFC West

The Broncos took a commanding lead in the AFC West with their 30-23 win over the San Diego Chargers on Sunday at Mile High. The Broncos, 7-3, now hold a three game lead over the 4-6 Chargers, but they have now swept San Diego to give them the edge in the tiebreaker with six games to go. This game was similar to last week's game in the fact that the offense really wasn't the story of this win. The Broncos defense was fantastic. Forget about the last touchdown that the Chargers scored to with a few minutes left. Their defense flat out dominated Philip Rivers and that offense. Von Miller was  again the best player on the field. The Broncos didn't give up a third down conversion until the third quarter. They got key turnovers deep in San Diego territory and added a blocked punt. The Broncos offense was able to capitalize on those turnovers, and they got points on key drives. The Broncos clearly proved that they were the better team, and the now they have positioned themselves to win the AFC West. One thing that I thought about right after the game ended was the fact that the Broncos swept the Chargers for the first time since 2005. People can talk about the recent disappointments the Broncos have suffered since 2005, and many people point to the collapse of 2008, the firing of Mike Shanahan, the hiring of Josh McDaniels, and the trades of Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall as the key moments in the demise of the Broncos franchise. In my opinion, I always thought the key moment that started the whole stretch of disappointment as a Broncos fan started on November 19, 2006. That night Denver hosted San Diego in a matchup of two 7-2 teams. The Broncos blew a 27-7 lead to San Diego, and they fell apart that year and finished 9-7 and out of the playoffs. I've always felt that the Broncos franchise never really recovered from that game, and it actually started the Chargers on their run of dominance in the AFC West that lasted from 2006 through 2009. Now, six years later to the day, the Broncos defeated the Chargers, swept them in the process, and it might lead to major changes in San Diego, and it could send the Broncos on a big run down the road. We'll see what happens, but it took about six years for the Broncos to finally displace the Chargers and take control of the AFC West from them. Here are my thoughts and observations from the game.....

1) Von Miller added 3 sacks, two tackles for loss, and two forced fumbles. He is making a run at the NFL Defensive Player of the Year Award, and he is just dominating in every aspect in every game.

2) The Broncos run defense was stout once again, and they got key turnovers at critical times. Wesley Woodyard's interception set up a field goal in the first half, and Miller's forced fumble of Rivers set up a Peyton Manning to Eric Decker touchdown to give the Broncos a 24-9 lead in the third quarter. The story of this game was the Broncos defense.

3) Although Manning and the Broncos offense struggled a lot in this game, they were able to convert turnovers into points. Also, when they needed a score to add to their 24-16 fourth quarter lead, Manning was able to drive the length of the field, convert some key third downs, and get two critical field goals to give them a 30-16 lead.

4) The Broncos special teams have been really good this year. They have had touchdowns on punt and kick returns the past few weeks, and this week they added a key block punt in the second quarter. That set up a Manning to Brandon Stokley 31 yard touchdown to give them a 17-7 lead at the half.

5) The run game was actually moving the ball effectively in the first half, but once Willis McGahee went down, they really couldn't run the ball. McGahee tore his MCL, and he will be out at least 6 weeks. The Broncos are going to have to rely on Lance Ball, Ronnie Hillman, and possibly Knowshon Moreno to keep the running game going. The McGahee injury is very significant for their offense, but it is not a deathblow because this offense obviously runs through the arm of Manning and the passing game.

6) Every week the same names stand out for this Broncos team. We know how great Manning playing, how great Von Miller looks, but guys like Chris Harris, Tony Carter, Wesley Woodyard, and Kevin Vickerson continue to impress. Even D.J. Williams came back from suspension and made some nice plays. This defense is playing really well, and if they can keep it up, then it changes everything.

7) The Broncos still make too many mistakes. Manning threw a pick-six, Lance Ball fumbled, and Trindon Holliday fumbled a ball that was recovered by the Broncos. Decker, Jacob Tamme, and Joel Dreessen each dropped passes that would have kept drives alive. All of these mistakes that happen every week are really going to kill the Broncos at some point down the road. Mark my words.

8) Denver is now 7-3, and they head to Kansas City to play the 1-9 Chiefs. The Broncos always struggle at Arrowhead, but this might be the most dysfunctional Chiefs team to host Denver in a really long time. The Broncos have to take care of business this week and dispatch of an inferior team to get to 8-3.

Week 11 Picks

We are heading into Week 11 of the NFL season, and Thanksgiving is upon us in less than a week. Usually, at this time of the year in the NFL, the fans and the media are talking about how the season has been such a topsy-turvy year. We are usually talking about teams that were completely dismissed before the season are now making real runs at the playoffs or a division title. Conversely, we are discussing how some big name teams are really disappointing and how no one saw that decline coming. This year is different. The 2012 season-for the most part-has held serve if you will. Things have transpired basically how many people thought they would. Let's start with the AFC. New England, Baltimore, Houston, and Denver are all leading their divisions. Pittsburgh is entrenched as a wild card too. Those five teams were all generally considered to be playoff teams out of the AFC this year. Those five all made the playoffs last year, so there really is no surprises in the AFC. The only surprise so far is that the Colts are 6-3 in the first year of the Andrew Luck Era. It isn't a surprise to me because I had the Colts being very competitive this year, but just missing out on the playoffs. Other than the Colts, what has taken place hasn't really surprised anyone. The Jets are struggling with Mark Sanchez and their offense. The Tim Tebow move has been a distraction. The Dolphins are going through growing pains with Ryan Tannehill. The Bengals are a decent team, but they can't get by the Ravens or the Steelers. The Jaguars and Browns stink. The Chargers are underachieving, and Norv Turner is on the hotseat. The Raiders, Titans, and Bills are mediocre. The Chiefs suck really bad. Outside of a few people that picked the Bills and the Chiefs to make the playoffs, nothing has really stood out as Earth shattering.

When you look at the NFC, the same results seem to apply. The Giants, Falcons, Bears, and Niners lead their respective divisions. Everyone seemed to love those four teams going into 2012. The Packers are a wild card team right now, and everyone had the Packers as a Super Bowl favorite coming out of the NFC. Seattle has a good defense and are very tough at home. The Cowboys are up and down every week. The Skins are going through some tough times, but Robert Griffin III gives them hope for next year. The Saints struggled at the start of the season due to the ramifications of the bounty scandal. The Rams are building something with Jeff Fisher, but they are at least a year away. The Cardinals have no quarterback and no offensive line. The Lions are taking a step back. The Eagles are all over the place, and Andy Reid and Michael Vick appear on the way out. Cam Newton is having a sophomore slump after his spectacular rookie year. The only real surprises are the Bucs and the Vikings. A lot of people felt that Tampa Bay would be improved after their dismal 4-12 season in 2011, so the fact that they are 5-4 under Greg Schiano is certainly not shocking. I guess the Vikings at 6-4 might be the only really big surprise in the NFC, but no one is really counting on Minnesota to win 10 games and make the playoffs.

When you look at the league right now, nine playoff teams from last year are on target to make the playoffs again this year. That is way over the usual projection of only six teams returning to the playoffs the next year. The one thing you can usually count on in the NFL is not knowing what was going to happen from one season to the next. This year has really played out the way that many people have predicted-which is really strange. What will happen from here on out? It is hard to see a lot of crazy things happening at this point. Although everything seems to be playing out the way many of us had predicted, I still think the NFL season will get crazy after Thanksgiving. It almost has to. Injuries, wild upsets, and some crazy finishes are still lurking out there, and those types of situations can really create chaos in this non-chaotic year. It might have taken a little longer to get there this year, but don't be too surprised when it happens. Onto the picks for Week 11........

Last Week's Record: 5-9
Overall Record: 64-76-5
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

WASHINGTON (-3) over Philly: Before the season started, I spent the whole Summer debating what was going to happen to the Eagles. For a long time, I had the Eagles bottoming out, and Andy Reid finally losing his job; however, I went the other way and picked the Eagles to make the playoffs. The Eagles are 3-6, and it looks like this team is going down the tubes. They haven't played well all year, and I don't see that continuing this week with backup QB Nick Foles replacing the "injured" Michael Vick. Also, the Redskins have been really bad at home under Mike Shanahan. They are due for a big home win.

Green Bay (-3) over DETROIT: The Packers are going on the road, and they are banged up, but this Packers team seems to be hitting their stride. The Lions are just not the same team they were in 2011, and Green Bay will get to 7-3 with a tough road win against a divisional opponent.

Arizona (+10) over ATLANTA: The Falcons are now 8-1 after their close loss at New Orleans last week, and I think they will win this game at home, but this has a chance to be a lot closer than the spread might indicate. Nothing has gone right for the Cardinals since their 4-0 start, but the Falcons haven't blown out too many teams at home this year. This game feels like a 26-20 win for Atlanta.

Tampa Bay (-1) over CAROLINA: After watching the Panthers last week against Denver, I realized that the Panthers have no clue what to do on offense. They have Cam Newton, DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, Steve Smith, and Greg Olson, and they can't move the ball a lick. How are the Bucs only laying a point on the road to this team? The Bucs continue their winning ways with a convincing win this week.

DALLAS (-7) over Cleveland: I know that this is usually a spot where the Cowboys won't play well, fail to cover, and barely win, but I think the Cowboys buck the trend this week. That win over Philly last week saved their season, and they smell the blood in the water. Look for them to take of business at home against the hapless Browns.

ST.LOUIS (-3) over New York Jets: The last thing the Jets needed was an article to come out that featured a dozen players ripping Tim Tebow. We know the Jets are struggling at 3-6, but they certainly didn't need anymore distractions like that one heading into a must-win game for them. This game will go back and forth, but I like the Rams at home in this one. I was inspired by what I saw out of them last week in their tie with the Niners.

NEW ENGLAND (-9) over Indy: I thought the Pats were going to get a blowout win over the Bills last week, but they barely survived at the end and hung on to win 37-31. I think they are still due for a big blowout win at home, and they really haven't had one all year. A lot of people are picking the Colts to cover, and this game will be close throughout, but I think the Pats put it away early the fourth quarter and cruise to an easy victory by at least two touchdowns.

Jacksonville (+15) over HOUSTON: The Texans will win this game, but I am done picking teams to cover huge spreads this year. Houston can win this game in their sleep, and I foresee a rather ho-hum win for the Texans to the tune of something like 20-6.

KANSAS CITY (+4) over Cincy: The Chiefs haven't won at Arrowhead all year long. In fact, they haven't been very competitive at home with the exception of the game against the Ravens. They are due for a home win. Cincy buried the Giants last week, but you can never fully trust the Bengals.

OAKLAND (+5) over New Orleans: The Saints have done a nice job digging themselves out of their 0-4 hole to start the season. At 4-5, the Saints got an emotional win over the Falcons at home last week, and a lot of people are starting to jump on their bandwagon as a late-season threat. I think this is a classic letdown game for the Saints. They have to travel all the way across the country against an unfamiliar opponent. Take the Raiders and the points in the Black Hole.

PITTSBURGH (+3) over Baltimore: I might be kicking myself for taking the Steelers with Big Ben out  due to injury. Can you really take Byron Leftwitch against the Ravens? Yes you can and here is why: Are the Ravens really as good as their 7-2 record indicates? I don't think so, and they really haven't beaten anyone decent this year. The Steelers are the only team in the league that seems to lose marquee players and somehow continue to win games. I'm taking the Steelers on hunch this week and look for them to somehow pull this one out at home.

Chicago (+6) over SAN FRANCISCO: Jay Cutler is out with a concussion, so enter Jason Campbell. We all know how the Bears melted down the stretch last year when Cutler went down, but Campbell is a much better option than Caleb Hanie or Josh McCown. The Niners are 6-2-1, but they also seem to have lost a little of their early season luster. It is uncertain if Alex Smith will start for SF as a result of his own concussion suffered last week, but the Bears defense will rise up and put this game on their shoulders no matter who starts for the 49ers.

San Diego (+7) over DENVER:
At 6-3, the Broncos are playing really well right now. Peyton Manning is on fire, and if the Broncos win this game at home, then they will take a commanding three game lead in the AFC West by sweeping the Chargers in the process. Can they really a stranglehold on this division this early in the season? Don't you get the feeling that the Chargers will make one more solid run at Denver for the division crown. At 4-5, the Chargers desperately need this game. In the NFL, you usually side with the team that is more desperate. The Broncos are a really good team, but they still make too many mistakes. They were able to get away with those mistakes the last two weeks with victories over inferior teams, but I don't see that happening just yet. Plus, aren't we due for a Peyton Manning clunker performance? I can see Manning having a tough day, losing to the Chargers at home, spending the entire week having to answer questions about his arm strength and health, and then going on a six game stretch in which he completely tears up the rest of the league once again.

Final Score: Chargers-28 Denver-24