Thursday, June 21, 2012

2012 Sunday Night Football Schedule Analysis

Free Agency is long gone, the draft is a distant memory, OTAs are over, and minicamps are wrapping up. The Broncos have sent their players off on a five week summer vacation. The coaches, executives, and support staff will all leave Dove Valley and head on vacations as a way to recharge the batteries before training camp starts at the end of July. This time of the year is truly a period of downtime for the Broncos and the entire NFL. It is their summer break, and with little news to discuss, it is a great time to look at other aspects of the upcoming NFL season. I broke down the Broncos and their schedule back when the schedules were released in April, but it is fun to look at the particular primetime games that are slated to take place next season. The primetime packages now consist of the Monday Night Football package on ESPN, the Sunday Night Football Package on NBC, and the NFL Network's Thursday Night Package. Today, I'll start with the SNF package on NBC. This has become the elite package of games on the NFL primetime schedule, and with the flex-scheduling option available, the NFL sets up NBC to show the best possible games each Sunday Night down the backstretch of the season. Here we go with the 2012 Sunday Night Football schedule and analysis:

Week 1- Wednesday 9/5/12
Dallas at New York Giants
Analysis: NBC always gets the first kickoff game of the new season for a Thursday Night opener, but this year the game will be played on a Wednesday because of NBC's coverage of the Democratic National Convention. I thought all along that the Packers would head to New York to take on the Giants, but the NFL put the Cowboys up first for the G-Men. Dallas-Giants will always get a huge rating, and this game will put up a huge number.

Week 1- Sunday 9/9/12
Pittsburgh at Denver
Analysis: Appartently, NBC was targeting this game before Peyton Manning signed with Denver. Once Manning signed with the Broncos, this was a no brainer. You have a playoff rematch from last year, and Manning making his debut with the Broncos. This game will provide a great setting for NBC in their first official Sunday night game.

Week 2- 9/16/12
Detroit at San Francisco
Analysis: Two surprise playoff teams from 2011 meet up early in the season. Great matchup because the game is in Week 2, and if these two teams fail to live up to expectations, it won't show up the second week of the season. Plus, the sideshow of this game features Jim Harbaugh vs. Jim Schwartz meeting up for the first time since last season's handshake "throwdown" at the end of the game. This game will feature about 1,200 side-by-side camera shots of both games thoughout the game.

Week 3- 9/23/12
New England at Baltimore
Analysis: This is a classic game in early September. Two AFC heavyweights going at it in a rematch of last year's AFC Championship. Great game and great selection for NBC. A must watch for early September.

Week 4- 9/30/12
New York Giants at Philadelphia
Analysis: You can bet on a tremendous amount of NFC East games on the SNF package, and this year is no different. The reason for all of those NFC East games: Marquee teams and marquee matchups. The Giants at Eagles should be a big game for late September. You can't go wrong with this pick by NBC. Another great game to a great opening month for Sunday Night Football.

Week 5- 10/7/12
San Diego at New Orleans
Analysis: A really interesting game featuring Drew Brees against Philip Rivers and his former team. The key for this game is going to be how much the bounty scandal has affected the Saints. Good thing this game is early in the season, but NBC could run the risk of getting a 1-3 New Orleans team that is clearly negatively affected by NFL's penalites sanctioned against them.

Week 6- 10/14/12
Green Bay at Houston
Analysis: The Texans have never been featured on SNF before this game. On paper this looks like a really intriguing game, but I would be a little concerned about the Texans living up to expectations this year. Otherwise, this game matches two powerhouses in an interconference battle. Should be a great scene that night from Houston.

Week 7- 10/21/12
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati
Analysis: I'm not a big fan of this matchup. I know the Bengals made the playoffs last year, and this game matches up two playoff teams from the same division. Regardless, this game doesn't seem to be deserving of a SNF game.

Week 8- 10/28/12
New Orleans at Denver
Analysis: NBC goes for some starpower as it goes head to head with FOX and the World Series. As great as this game looks on paper, there are some possible risks involved. First, the Saints and the effects of the bounty scandal could send them for a down year. Secondly, Peyton Manning's health and his ability to be healthy will be a key factor in determining if this game is a five star matchup. Hopefully, Manning is healthy and the Saints are the Saints, and this will be a big time AFC-NFC showdown from Mile High.

Week 9- 11/4/12
Dallas at Atlanta
Analysis: Usually, you get the Cowboys in some type of NFC East matchup on SNF, but NBC throws a curveball and pits the Falcons against the Cowboys. A good matchup on paper, but it is not the sexiest game for an early November game on NBC. By the time the NFL season hits November, the games and the stakes get larger. As a result, the SNF package should reflect that. This game, particularly the Falcons addition to it, lacks that big time national appeal.

Week 10- 11/11/12
Houston at Chicago
Analysis: NBC is banking on two teams that have high preseason hopes to fulfill those expectations and provide a big time matchup in November. That might be a lot to ask. I think that the Bears and the Texans will be very competitive this year, but this might not the Super Bowl preview that a lot of analysts are predicting.

Week 11- 11/18/12
Baltimore at Pittsburgh
Analysis: One of the top rivalries in the NFL gets a showcase matchup on SNF. These two teams are always in the hunt in the AFC, and their games are usually classic games. Perfect spot for this game as well. Great selection by NBC.

Week 12- Thursday 11/22/12
New England at New York Jets (Thanksgiving Night)
Analysis: When the networks signed on with the NFL to continue their television contracts last fall, one of the big points that came across was that NBC was going to get the Thanksgiving Night game instead of NFL Network. This was a great move by NBC and the NFL. What a great way to start the new tradition with a classic rivalry game between the Jets and the Pats. This game always adds interest, and there is no better way to finish off Thanksgiving.

Week 12- Sunday 11/25/12
Green Bay at New York Giants
Analysis: The NBC crew can stay the whole weekend in New York because they get this classic NFC matchup. You knew that NBC would be getting Packers-Giants this year, and by putting it in late November, it is setting up the possibility of this game having huge implications on the NFC playoff picture. Packers, Giants, and Thanksgiving weekend are all factors that will lead to a big rating for NBC.

Week 13- 12/2/12
Philadelphia at Dallas
Analysis: NBC can do no wrong by scheduling these two teams in this spot. History has shown that even if one team is down that year, the ratings will still be very strong. Both teams should be in the playoff hunt at this point; therefore, look for some big ratings and big appeal heading into this game.

Week 14- 12/9/12
Detroit at Green Bay
Analysis: The flex scheduling starts back in Week 11. This is the first game that looks like it could get flexed out. Here's why: If Detroit is struggling at this point in the season, then there is no way that NBC will stick with the Lions in this spot. NBC will have no qualms about losing the Packers this week because Detroit is a smaller market team. If the Lions are good again, then this matchuo is another big time game late in the season.

Week 15- 12/16/12
San Francisco at New England
Analysis: This game looks like it could be a real candidate for a flex game. It will be very tough for the 49ers to exceed the expectations they have going into this season. It is hard for me to believe that the Niners will go 13-3 again this year. With that said, expect a dropoff in the Niners performance, and that could end up getting this game flexed. Also, NBC won't get too upset with dropping the Pats because they know they can get them later on in the season or in the playoffs.

Week 16- 12/23/12
San Diego at New York Jets
Analysis: I could see this game getting flexed out very easily. Who knows what the Chargers are going to do this year? They seem to be up and down every year. The Jets look like a team on the decline, so they could very well be playing out the string come Week 16. I'm not so sure about this game sticking this late in the year.

Week 17- 12/30/12
FLEX GAME BASED ON PLAYOFF IMPLICATIONS
Possible Choices:
Chicago at Detroit
Philadelphia at NY Giants
Dallas at Washington
NY Jets at Buffalo




Friday, June 1, 2012

Broncos Offseason Mailbag!

It has been awhile since the last time I posted. After the draft ended, there is some downtime in the NFL calendar. It usually goes quiet for a while before OTAs and Mini-Camp. It is a good time to get away from football for a little bit, digest the offseason, and get ready to look ahead to the upcoming year. It is a fun time to get caught up in other things. This year, I was wrapped up in watching my beloved New York Rangers battle all the way to the Eastern Conference Finals. Believe me there were a few times that I contemplated the creation of a Rangers blog during this amazing run. Unfortunately, the Rangers were eliminated by the Devils in Game 6 last Friday, so their season has ended, and I can focus on my full-time obsession- analyzing the Denver Broncos.  With the Broncos about to resume their second level of OTAs, I figured this would be a good time to catch up and check in with our heroes out in the Rockies. Considering that this has been one of craziest offseasons in Broncos and NFL history, nothing would be better than a little question and answer session to take the pulse of Broncos Country at this point in the offseason...........

Have you adjusted to the fact that Peyton Manning is going to be the Broncos starting QB in 2012?
It is definitely starting to sink in at this point. Seeing Manning in a Broncos uniform last week was certainly an exciting moment. I guess the real moment will be when I get the #18 jersey for the first time, but it definitely has been pretty cool to watch Manning give interviews, represent the Broncos at certain events, and see him conduct practices for the first time. All the reports out of Denver are stating that he looks like the Manning of old, and his health is progressing on schedule. The real test will come when the bullets starting flying for real in September, but at this point the giddiness is still there. This will be a common theme as we head into training camp. Everything will be fine and dandy with Peyton, but we want to see what happens when the regular season gets going. I will put it this way: I just keep thinking about how sick it is going to be when he steps on that field for the opening game at home against the Steelers on Sunday Night Football. It will be a "goose bumps" type of moment. The excitement level for this season will be the highest it has been for the Broncos since 1998, but there are still many questions that need to be answered in regards to his health. Once the regular season starts, and he starts playing like the vintage Peyton Manning, then everything will fall into place.

Have you gotten over the fact that Tim Tebow is gone?
It is so strange that a week after the season ended in the playoffs at New England, Tebow was being called on stage by Brad Paisley at a concert in the Pepsi Center. The crowd went crazy for Tebow, and you would think that there is no way in the world that Tebow would be gone just a few months later. The wounds are starting to heal, and I am definitely starting to get over the fact that he was shipped out of town so quickly, but living in New York makes it is impossible to avoid any Tebow talk. He has been the number one topic in New York when the discussions turn to football, but many Jets fans are negative about the move. I just sit back and laugh and think about how I don't have to defend Tebow anymore, and that circus has left Denver and sits squarely in the Big Apple. One thing that is weird is this: I love watching the Broncos games from the prior season every Spring and Summer as a sort of look-back/preparation for the next season. It is so strange to see how crazy and captivating the Tebow run was, and after all of those moments, he was shipped out of town quicker than a bag of footballs. Anyway, everytime I get a little pissed that Tebow is gone, I think about this fact: Peyton Manning is the Broncos starting quarterback in 2012. That is all I need to know.
How about Brian Xanders being let go as General Manager after the draft?
I wasn't surprised at all by that move. It was pretty obvious that once John Elway took over, he was making all the final decisions. It will be interesting to see how much of a role that Xanders had in the transactions the last few years, but this is clearly Elway's franchise. The relationship between Elway and John Fox seems to have really developed. Xanders was hired by Mike Shanahan and survived when Shanny got fired. Josh McDaniels kept him on, and he was able to keep his job when McD got canned, so when Elway took over, you could see the writing was on the wall. I am actually surprised Xanders wasn't let go last year. Let's just hope that Elway has built a solid group around him, and he continues to build a solid roster for this team over the next few years.

Did you like the Drayton Florence signing?
I did like it because you can't have too many corners in the NFL in this era. He is a veteran player who can provide some depth on the back end, so it made sense for me. I wasn't too surprised or upset that the Broncos let Andre Goodman go. He has some moments last year, but for the most part he was the weak link in the secondary. If you think about it, the Broncos top five corners will be: Champ Bailey, Tracy Porter, Drayton Florence, Chris Harris (Nickel Corner), and probably rookie Omar Bolden. A lot of experts feel that Bolden will be a starter in the league if his knee is completely healthy. You always need corners, and a guy like Florence should help this defense out in some way.

Besides Peyton Manning, what other moves did you like in free agency?
I really liked that Denver added two tight ends in free agency. Jacob Tamme and Joel Dressen seem like really good fits, and they are still relatively young. I like the idea of this group on the field: Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker out wide at the X and Z. Tamme and Dreesen as the two tight ends, and Willis McGahee as the running back. That look could provide some major problems for some teams. The two tight end pickups were major hauls in my opinion and a major upgrade from last season's TE grouping.
Were there any moves that you didn't like or understand?
I was upset that they let Broderick Bunkley go to New Orleans. He was the best run-stuffer on the defensive line last year, and I think it will be hard for the Broncos to replace him. As I have written before, I liked the Derek Wolfe pick in the draft, but I wasn't thrilled about grabbing QB Brock Osweiler in the 2nd round. I just wish the Broncos addressed the linebacker position more aggressively. They resigned Joe Mays, but I really haven't been impressed by him as a starting MLB the last few years. Put it this way: Anytime you have an offseason when you acquire Peyton Manning, you can't be too upset about all the other moves your team made.

What is the overall feeling for team as they head into June?
Excitement and optimism. People have been asking me all offseason about how far Peyton Manning will be able to take the Broncos. Some people think he will make them a Super Bowl contender, and some people feel like they will still struggle even with Manning. Here is what I'm going to say about the whole situation: If Manning is healthy and returns to form, then the Broncos are going to win 10-11 games and make the playoffs. They might not win the AFC West, but they will get into the playoffs. Once the NFL Playoffs begin, it is a crapshoot. All you have to do is make the playoffs and anything can happen, so there is no reason to try to predict how far they will exactly go with Manning. If the sheriff is healthy and ready to go, then the Broncos will be a solid, playoff-caliber team in 2012.