Friday, September 28, 2012

Week 4 Picks!

A blockage in my main line created a sewage backup in my house, so I spent the last 24 hours cleaning up shit, brown water, and other assorted waste. Needless to say, I was not able to make a pick for last night's Thursday Night Football game between the Ravens and the Browns. I swear I was going to pick Cleveland at +12. Anyway, it turned out to be a pretty decent game as the Ravens held on for a 23-16 win. The game also featured the return of the real referees. After Monday night's debacle involving Seattle and Green Bay, the NFL finally came to its' senses and settled the labor dispute with the officials. Here is my final stance on the whole labor disagreement. This is the second time in as many years that the NFL has played games with its employees. The NFL owners cried poverty last year and locked out the players. As a result, the league proceeded with an ill-advised and ridicuolously timed work stoppage that held the fans captive for the entire offseason. It was the worst five months ever for a NFL fan. As soon as preseason games were on the verge or being cancelled and the owners were going to lose money, the NFL and the NFLPA got together and came up with an agreement and football was saved for 2012. In this scenario, the officials are not as important to the fans as the players, so the NFL once again dug in, rolled the dice, and didn't worry about starting the season with replacement guys. Once again the fans were held hostage, and the first three weeks were continiously getting worse. Long games, calls being missed, penalites all over the place, and incompentece were all factors in destroying the integrity of the game for the first three contests. The NFL sat back and defended the refs time and time again. That all changed when the Seahawks-Packers game was decided because of the incompetence of these refs. Once that happened the NFL knew it had a crisis on its' hands, and they decided to get a deal done. Twice the NFL held the fans out there on a plank. With the lockout of the players, they avoided disaster and saved the preseason and the regular season. With the officials, they weren't so lucky because one of the games was affected by the poor officiating. The NFL is lucky that America loves this sport so much because other leagues would have a tough time sellilng that to their fans. Now that the real refs are back, can we go back to focusing on the games? Hopefully, the NFL has learned a lesson: Don't try to sell the fans a shit sandwich? We are a lot smarter than you think.

Onto the picks for Week 4........

Last Week's Record: 7-9
Overall Record: 20-26-2
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

New England (-4) over BUFFALO: Last year the Bills shocked New England at home at the same time of the season. It won't happen again this year. The Pats should have beaten the Ravens on Sunday Night last week, but they will take care of business this week on the road. A really good game in the AFC East though.

DETROIT (-4) over Minnesota: What do you make of the Vikings? Are they this year's ultimate sleeper team? It is too early to tell, but I like what I have seen out of Christian Ponder. The Lions lost a wild game at Tennessee last week in overtime, and Matt Stafford is banged up. I'll take the Lions at home this week to bounce back, but it wouldn't surprise me to see them stumble again.

ATLANTA (-7) over Carolina: You have to go with the hot hand right now, and that is Matt Ryan and the Falcons offense. Ryan is the highest rated QB in the NFL right now, and the Falcons are flying at 3-0.At 1-2, I'm not so down on Cam Newton and the Panthers yet. There is a lot of football left for them. This has the potential to be a close game, but how do you bet against Atlanta at home. Take the Falcons.

San Francisco (-4) over NY JETS: Losing Darrelle Revis for the season is a killer for the Jets. No player might mean more for a defense than Revis. It looks so obvious this week for the Niners in this game, so that makes me a little nervous, but they are coming off a loss, and they will be ready to play. This is an interesting matchup, but take the Niners on the road.

KANSAS CITY (+1) over San Diego: The Chiefs saved their season with a comeback win on the road in New Orleans. The Chargers proved that they weren't as good as their 2-0 start indicated in their blowout loss to Atlanta. This is a huge game in the AFC West, and I'm taking the Chiefs at home. It is only a point, and the Chiefs are not losing their first two games at Arrowhead this year.

Tennessee (+12) over HOUSTON: The Texans will win the game, but this will be a lot closer than people think. The Titans showed some guts last week in their win over Detroit. The Texans could be in for a letdown after a big win in Denver. Tennessee keeps it close until late.

ST. LOUIS (+3) over Seattle: Seattle has to take a long trip after the crazy Monday night win over Green Bay. The Rams gave the Bears a game for a while last week. Logic says that the Seahawks are the better team, but I like what I have seen from the Rams so far this year. I'm taking the Rams in a mini-upset.

Miami (+5) over ARIZONA: The Cardinals are a real surprise this year and are now 3-0 after last week's thrashing of the Eagles. They are at home, and this is a classic letdown game for Arizona. The Dolphins lost a real heartbreaker to the Jets in overtime. At 1-2, they aren't as bad as people think. The Dolphins will keep this one close, and they might even steal it at the end.

Cincy (-2) over JACKSONVILLE: The Bengals were pretty impressive in their win over the Redskins last week. Look for them to take to the Jags on the road.

GREEN BAY (-7) over New Orleans: The Saints are done. They are finished at 0-3-especially with the way that they blew that 24-6 lead over the Chiefs. Now, they head to Green Bay to take on a Packers team that is seething after getting robbed last week on MNF to Seattle. The Packers will take out their frustrations on the Saints in Lambeau this week.

Washington (+3) over TAMPA BAY: The Redskins will bounce back after their home loss to Cincy last week. I like this matchup for RG III and that Washington offense. The Bucs played the Giants and the Cowboys tough the last two weeks, but I think the Redskins upset them in this one. Take the Skins and the points.

New York Giants (+2) over PHILLY: The Eagles usually own this rivalry lately, but the Giants are the second best team in the NFC right now. Plus, they had 10 days off to get ready and healthy for this one. The Eagles are 2-1, but they are really flawed right now. Michael Vick is a turnover machine, and the magic might be gone from him. Look for the Giants to win a tight one on the road Sunday night because they are simply the better team.

DALLAS (-3) over Chicago: Do you know who the 31st ranked QB in the NFL is after three weeks? The answer is Jay Cutler. Although the Bears are 2-1, Cutler has been off to a bad start to the year. I really like the Cowboys a lot in this one. Take the Boys laying three at home on MNF.

Oakland (+6) over Denver: I just don't like how this Denver team has played the last two weeks. They fall behind by 20 points, and then make this comebacks in the fourth quarter but fall short. I just don't think the Broncos are very good at this point in the season. Maybe they will get better and better each week, but right now they are not very good. This game makes me real nervous because the Raiders have owned the Broncos in Denver the last four years. The Broncos have not beaten the Raiders in Mile High since 2007. Darren McFadden had a big week againts Pittsburgh, and if he gets going, then the Broncos are in big trouble. I just don't have a good feeling about the Broncos at this point in the season. Take the Raiders in an upset.

Final Score- Oakland-27 Denver-19

Monday, September 24, 2012

Texans Too Much for Broncos

The Broncos season has not started as planned. Yesterday's loss to the Texans showed just how far the Broncos need to go to be an elite team. The 31-25 defeat at home drops the Broncos to 1-2. Now, they have a must win game against the rival Raiders next Sunday. Many people felt that this game would be a "measuring stick" game for Denver. Houston came in at 2-0 and they were arguably the best team in the AFC. If the Broncos could rise up to the challenge and knock off Houston, then these two teams could be battling for home games, seeding, and bye-weeks coming January. Well, Houston proved that they are the best team in the AFC, and the Broncos proved they have a long way to go to get there. This game provided a lot of answers about the Texans, and provided more questions about the Broncos. Here are my thoughts on the game......

1) After Denver jumped out to a 5-0 lead following Elvis Dumervil's sack-safety, and a field goal, the Texans responded with three straight touchdowns. Houston answered right back with a 60 yard touchdown pass from Matt Schaub to Andre Johnson. Then, Schaub and the Texans marched 95 yards and scored on a Schaub to Arian Foster hookup to take a 14-5 lead. At that point, I felt that the Broncos were done. You could just tell that the Texans were the better team. After Schaub hit Kevin Walter on a 52 yard bomb to make it 21-5, the Broncos were knocked down and really couldn't get up. The Texans made a point on those three possessions.

2) Peyton Manning's arm looked a lot stronger this week, but the Broncos offense was again inconsistent. Here is the problem: The Broncos don't know what they want to do on offense. Do they want to be no-huddle? Do they want to run the ball and be balanced? Can they even run the ball? The offense sputtered too many times on Sunday. Three first half field goals were not going to help in this game. They didn't even gain a yard in the third quarter. It is obvious that their offense is a work in progress and it will take time for Manning and his receivers to get going and gel together.

3) The Broncos were able to get back into the game in the fourth quarter, but they can't get down by so much in these games. Two weeks in a row and both times they got behind big. Can't survive like that in the NFL.

4) It doesn't matter who is coaching the defense or what personnel is out there because the Broncos defense consistently sucks every year. No one knows if there was confusion on the two big hookups in the first half, but their defense still has trouble stopping the run and they can't get off the field on third down. Anytime the Broncos defense needs a big stop, they simply can't get it.

5) The Broncos can't run the ball from regular formations. The only way they can run it is from a spread set. Why even waste your time running the ball on short yardage anymore?

6) If Demaryius Thomas did the right thing and tapped his other foot down in the endzone, then the Broncos would have had over four minutes left in the game. Thomas' touchdown was challenged and overruled and the Broncos had to waste more time to score the touchdown to make it 31-25. Denver didn't score until there was three minutes left on the clock. Thomas and Eric Decker dropped key passes in this game, and they still seem lost on some routes. They need to step up and play a lot better in order to help Manning and get this offense clicking.

7) It definitely sucks to be 1-2, but there is still a lot of football to be played. Manning looks healthy and his arm looks fine. It is going to take time to get this offense going in the right direction, but you have to think that at some point things will start to get better. It is a long, long season. Playoff berths are decided in September. All the Broncos need to do is worry about winning one game this week against the Raiders. There is a lot of football left to be played. No need to jump off the ship now.

Friday, September 21, 2012

Week 3 Picks!

When you look at the league heading into Week 3, you notice that a lot of teams are at 1-1. That is pretty much par for the course for the NFL, so dropping to 1-2 is not the worst possible scenario after this week.We all know that 0-2 is not the end of the world, but 0-3 could be the deathblow. Two teams that had high expectations meet up this week with the hopes of avoiding the fatal 0-3 start. Kansas City and New Orleans were both popular picks to win their respective divisions, but both have started poorly. You can see the effect that the suspension of Sean Payton has had on the Saints, and the Chiefs defense has gotten ripped apart in both of their losses. The winner of this game saves their season. The loser of this game has a hole that might be too big to dig out of. That is what you love about the NFL: Games with impact in September. Onto the picks for Week 3....

Last week's record: 9-5-2
Overall Record: 13-17-2
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

St.Louis (+8) over CHICAGO: This looks like a blowout win for the Bears, and I expect them to win the game outright, but the Rams have played really well so far this year. The Rams are sneaky tough, and they will keep this game close throughout. The Bears maybe a little overrated at this point in the season.

DALLAS (-7) over Tampa Bay: No team was a bigger disappointment in Week 2 than the Cowboys. They were awful in their loss at Seattle. Now, they return home for their first home game of the year. Look for a big effort out of them this Sunday. The Bucs are going to be tough all year long, and they had the Giants dead to rights last week before Eli Manning ripped the game away from them in the last quarter. Look for a well-played game, but I'll take Dallas to bounce back.

San Francisco (-6) over MINNESOTA: This line seems a little too low. You get the Niners defense matching up against Christain Ponder. SF certainly has the edge in that matchup. You have to love what you see out of the 49ers so far. Solid defense, effective running game, and protecting the football have all been on display for them in the first two weeks. They look like the best team in the NFL. That will continue this week on the road.

TENNESSEE (+4) over Detroit: Why did I pick the Titans to win the AFC South? They are making me look pretty bad, and I am picking them this week only out of desperation. I can't see them going 0-3. Although Detroit is the better team, I'll take the Titans to squeeze one out at home.

WASHINGTON (-3) over Cincy: The Skins were a Josh Morgan meltdown away from possibly being 2-0. They head home this week to take on the 1-1 Bengals. I love this game for Washington, and they are only giving three points. Robert Griffin III continues to look like a star, and he will help get the Skins to 2-1 with a big win at home over the Bengals.

New York Jets (-2.5) over MIAMI: Rex Ryan gets to devise a gameplan to stop Ryan Tannehill and Reggie Bush. Talk about a mismatch. The Jets get Darrelle Revis back this week, and their defense will completely shut down the Dolphins offense. Look for a lot of sacks, some interceptions, and a multitude of puzzled looks on Tannehill's face all afternoon.

Kansas City (+9) over NEW ORLEANS: It is put up or shut time for these two teams. First, I actually think the Saints will win the game, but I can't lay the nine points with them. Second, when is everyone going to realize that Matt Cassel stinks? He isn't a big-time NFL starter. Plus, as bad as KC's defense has looked the last two weeks, things can't get worse for them, right? I'm taking the Chiefs to keep it close.

CLEVELAND (+3) over Buffalo: I have been so off on the Bills. I loved them over the Jets in Week 1, and they got killed. I had KC over them in Week 2, and they destroyed the Chiefs. The Bills are one team that I just can't figure out. I'm going with a hunch here, and the Browns are my pick. Brandon Weeden showed some flashes of brilliance last week, and Trent Richardson looks like a beast. Browns win it by a field goal.

INDY (-3) over Jacksonville: The Colts got their first win last week late on a drive by Andrew Luck. They will get to 2-1 with a victory over the Jags this week. This game could go either way, but I'll take Luck over Blaine Gabbert.

Philadelphia (-3) over ARIZONA: The Cardinals are a surprising 2-0, and they killed me in my suicide pool with their upset over the Patriots last week. The Eagles could easily be 0-2, but they come in at 2-0 with a big come-from-behind win over the Ravens last Sunday. The Cards defense is the story in this game, and you would expect them to play well again, but the Eagles will play their best game of the year this week and win it going away.

Atlanta (+3) over SAN DIEGO: The Chargers are 2-0, but they beat two winless teams in the process. The Falcons are 2-0 and they look really solid in their wins over the Chiefs and Broncos. This should be a really good game, but I think the Falcons will expose the Chargers weaknesses. Look for a decisive win on the road for Atlanta.

Pittsburgh (-4) over OAKLAND: A classic battle between two historic rivals. This game does scare me if your are picking the Steelers. Pittsburgh always seems to throw on clunker on the road each year to an inferior team, and this game could be it. I am taking the Steelers on merit, but don't be surprised if the Raiders rise up and shock everyone with the upset.

New England (+3) over BALTIMOREL: The Ravens are probably the better team, but everytime you count out the Pats, they rise up and fight back. A lot of people are taking Baltimore this week, but I'm going the other way. The Patriots will make a statement and win a crucial game on Sunday Night Football. Great game to end the football Sunday.

SEATTLE (+3) over Green Bay: I'm going with a Seahawks team that is another one of those "Sneaky" good teams. They are at home on Monday Night, and the Packers come in a little banged up. I'll take Seattle and the points in an upset.

Houston (-2) over DENVER: Last week was alarming for Broncos fans as Peyton Manning threw three first quarter interceptions. It is going to take some time for Manning to get it going consistently with the Broncos. This week, the task doesn't get any easier. The Texans have a good, aggressive, and young defense coming to Mile High. They could very easily make life miserable for the Broncos and Manning. Also, Houston runs the ball better than anyone in the league. The Broncos defense hasn't been tested too much in the run game, and that matchup overwhelmingly favors the Texans. Look for a valiant effort by the Broncos, but Houston is just the better team, and they will prove on Sunday.

Final Score: Houston-31 Denver-20

Thursday, September 20, 2012

Week 3 Thursday Night Pick!

CAROLINA (-2) over New York Giants: The Giants come into Carolina on a short week with a boatload of injuries. David Diehl, Hakeem Nicks, and Ahmad Bradshaw are all out for this week's game. Plus, they have to deal with preparing for Cam Newton and a very diverse offensive unit. If anyone can pull this game out, it would be Eli Manning; however, the deck seems too stacked against the G-Men tonight. The Panthers are only giving two points, so I'm not giving up a lot anyway. I'll take the Panthers at home.

Broncos Lose Ugly in Atlanta

The NFL is a very humbling league. As a fan, you can feel great after a victory, and then you get knocked back down to Earth the next week. Any Broncos fan experienced that range of emotions this past week. After knocking off the Steelers 31-19 in Week 1, the Broncos committed four turnovers in the first quarter at Atlanta and lost the game 27-21. Three of those turnovers were Peyton Manning interceptions. In fact, Manning was picked off the first three drives of the game. Although the start was terrible, Denver managed to get the game within a score at 27-21 with over three minutes to go in the game. Atlanta was able to get a key first down on a 3rd and 6, and run out the clock to preserve the win.

Here are my thoughts on the game....
1) When was the last time a defense completely fooled Peyton Manning? The Falcons disguised their coverages all night long and forced three key interceptions to start the game. I'l l have more on those Manning interceptions later in the column, but it was very strange to see Manning struggle that much early in a contest. Defensive Coordinator Mike Nolan did a great job all night long with his gameplan against Manning.

2) Matt Ryan outplayed Manning all night long. I was wrong about the Falcons in my preseason analysis. They look really good, and Ryan was the better QB Monday night. The captialized on all three Manning interceptions and built a solid 20-0 lead in the second quarter. Also, they were able to get a key third quarter score to make it 27-7, and Matt Ryan hit Julio Jones for a first down late in the game to secure the win. The Falcons are legit.

3) Knowshon Moreno's fumble was a killer too. After the three picks, the Broncos were only down 13-0, and they finally started to put a drive together. Moreno's fumble killed that drive and any momentum that they had going. It might be hard for Moreno to get back on the field after that play.

4) This game was just ugly all around. The referees were clueless all night. None of their calls were consistent, they misplaced the ball a few times, they couldn't figure things out procedurally, and they lost control of the game at one point. It was a disgrace, and the fact that it was on national television was a black eye for the NFL. The game took forever. The first half lasted for two hours. John Fox was losing his mind over some of the calls. It really hurt the product on TV, and the game wasn't presented very well at all. Just a bad night for everyone involved.

5) Give the Broncos credit for getting back into this game. Down 20-0, they were able to get a score right before the half when Demaryius Thomas made a beautiful catch from Peyton Manning in the end zone to make it 20-7. Also, down 27-7, the Broncos defense stopped Atlanta twice to give the offense a chance in the fourth quarter, and both times Willis McGahee responded with two short touchdown runs to cut the game to 27-21.

6) Tracy Porter almost picked off a pass deep in Atlanta territory that would have made the score 20-14 in the third quarter. That was a moment that wasn't talked about a lot, but it was a key play.

7) Now, onto the Manning situation. I'm not sure that he just made poor decisions on his first three interceptions. I think it is more than that. I noticed in the first half that is arm looked really weak. His passes very floating and some were taking a long time to get to the receiver. Something just seemed off. I was surprised that no one was talking about it during the game. No one was even talking about it immediately after the game. It wasn't until late Tuesday when I started seeing some analysts talking/writing about it. I noticed right off the bat. I will say that his throws seemed to improve as the game went on, and by the second half he was really throwing the ball with more zip--like he did in the Steeler game.  Here is my theory: I think the interceptions were a result of his arm strength not being anywhere close to normalcy. He still has a long way to go on certain throws, and I think Manning thought he might be able to make those long throws down the seam, but in reality he can't at this point and he was intercepted. He was able to adjust and throw patterns that he can make right now, but it obviously limited plays they wanted to run. Peyton is not Peyton yet. He still has a ways to go with his arm strength, but he can still be effective. He can use his football IQ to help move the team, and he can still make some throws, but he isn't back 100% yet. It was painfully obvious on MNF. Hopefully, every week he will continue to get stronger, but until then we are not sure what to expect from him. The Broncos have a really tough test this week as Houston comes to town, and Manning will face another strong defensive unit. We'll see how he fares this week, but I am really interested in seeing how that arm looks another week into the season.

Friday, September 14, 2012

NFL Week 2 Picks!

Week 2 is panic week in the NFL. After the first game, a lot of fans and analysts overreact to the results from the first set of games. If a team loses, then those fans think that team is done for the year. If a team wins, then everybody feels great and starts to think that this year might the year for that respective team. If you lose Week 1, then your fans start to worry about Week 2, and panic starts to develop. What happens if you lose and start off 0-2? Well, 0-2 isn't the worst thing ever. The 2007 Giants started 0-2 and won the Super Bowl. Although the numbers aren't too high, plenty of teams start out 0-2 and make the playoffs. The reaction to 0-1 is the panic of starting 0-2. Some teams are in that situation this week. The Steelers lost a tough game at Denver last Sunday night, and now they host a Jet team that is coming off a convincing win. If the Steelers lose they go 0-2. That would be bit of shock considering the Steelers are one of the favorites in the AFC. Are they dead? No, but obviously they put themselves in hole at 0-2. There is no reason to totally panic this week, but tell that to fanbases all over the country because that is what will happen if their team falls to 0-2.

After a terrible start to the season for me with my picks last week, I will try to bounce back this week. Week 2 has some really interesting games, but I am not going to over think it too much. There is no reasonto get cute with my picks this week. Hopefully, this week provides better results.

Here's the picks for Week 2....

Last Week's Record: 4-12
Overall Record: 4-12
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

NY GIANTS (-7) over Tampa Bay: Normally, the Giants would keep Tampa Bay in this game long enough and then pull it out late on an Eli Manning comeback. I don't think the Giants will do that this week. They should come out with their best performance after losing the opener to Dallas.

NEW ENGLAND (-12) over Arizona: Mismatch of the day. The Patriots looked really good last week at Tennessee. This week they get the overmatch Kevin Kolb on a platter. Look for the Pats to take care of business and put a whipping on the Cards in Foxboro.

INDIANAPOLIS (+2) over Minnesota: Tough game to call, but I'm going to go with the Colts in their home debut. Andrew Luck played pretty well last week considering he was running for his life. I didn't realize how bad the Indy's offensive line was until I watched them get manhandled by the Bears. The Vikings had a nice overtime win last week, and I wouldn't be shocked if they overwhelmed the Colts, but I'll take Luck and the Colts to pull it out at home.

CAROLINA (+3) over New Orleans: A really interesting game in the early window on Sunday. The Panthers were disappointing last week in a loss at Tampa Bay. They really couldn't get their offense going. The Saints were a disappointment as well in a home loss to Washington. Do you think the Saints will miss Sean Payton this year? I think so, and I am going to take the Panthers getting the points at home to put the Saints at 0-2.

Kansas City (+3) over BUFFALO: These two teams were becoming very popular in the preseason, and many people jumped on their respective bandwagons and predicted both of them would have a big year. Well, both got bombed in Week 1, and this suddenly becomes a must-win game. I have a feeling that KC is a better than what they showed last week in their loss to Atlanta. The Bills were just so bad, but I can't get the visions of Ryan Fitzpatrick's play out of my head. Take the Chiefs and the points.

Baltimore (+2) over PHILLY: How could you not be impressed with the Ravens? They looked great, and Joe Flacco looked like a top-level QB. On the other hand, the Eagles look awful in their 17-16 win over Cleveland. I was tempted to take Philly, but I think the Ravens go on the road and win convincingly.

Oakland (-2) over MIAMI: The Dolphins kept it close last week, but they got blown out in the second half to Houston. The Raiders looked really sloppy in a loss to the Chargers on Monday night. It is hard to like either of these teams right now, but I'll take the Raiders on the road because of Darren McFadden.

CINCY (-7) over Cleveland: The Battle of Ohio features two 0-1 teams. The Bengals are a better team, but you don't know what to expect from them. Brandon Weeden was awful for the Browns last week, and he might have the same kind of game on the road against the Bengals defense. I guess you have to take Cincy at home.

Houston (-7) over Jacksonville: Houston looked really good in the second half against Miami, and now they get to feast on the Jaguars at home in Week 2. Expect a closer game, but look for the Texans to pull away and get off to a 2-0 start.

SEATTLE (+3) over Dallas: This is a good matchup for the late window on FOX. Seattle is always tough at home, and they didn't play well last week in their loss to Arizona. Expect a better showing out of rookie QB Russell Wilson. Dallas won a big one over the Giants in the season opener, but that is a long trip to Seattle, and they are playing a team that is coming off a bad loss. This will be a very interesting game, but the Seahawks pull it out late.

Washington (-3) over ST.LOUIS: Thanks to the Rams, the Redskins were able to trade up and draft RG III. He was terrific last week in the win over New Orleans, and I'm going to ride the hot hand. The Rams played well in defeat to the Lions, but the Skins have RG III and a really good defense. I'll take Washington on the road.

New York Jets (+5.5) over PITTSBURGH: Another interesting game in Week 2. The Jets could be without Darrelle Revis, and if he is out then the Steelers receivers could have a really big day. You know Pittsburgh is going to play all out because they don't want to fall to 0-2. The Jets were very impressive last week in their win over Buffalo, but a lot of people expect them to fall this week. I'm not so sure of that. You are getting over five points, and I have the feeling the Jets will be playing a lot of close games this year. This one will be close too. Don't be shocked if the Jets pull off the upset.

SAN DIEGO (-6) over Tennessee: The Chargers didn't look great in their win over Oakland on Monday, but Jake Locker looked pretty bad in his debut for the Titans last week. This game could go either way, but I'll take Phillip Rivers and the Chargers at home.

SAN FRANCISCO (-5.5) over Detroit: The "Handshake Bowl" between Jim Schwartz and Jim Harbaugh. The Niners were really impressive last week in their dismantling of Green Bay. Now, they get to open their home schedule with the Lions. I don't think Harbaugh will have to do much to motivate his team this week. The Lions pulled one out late last week against the Rams, and this seems like a tall order on Sunday night. Take the Niners at home.


ATLANTA (-3) over Denver: The Broncos and Peyton Manning were impressive in their win over Pittsburgh last Sunday night, but this week presents a new challenge. The Falcons are really good at home, and their defense always plays better in the dome. Matt Ryan and that offense looked sensational in their win over KC last week. Can the Broncos stop Julio Jones and Roddy White? It might be a very tough task to accomplish. If Denver falls behind early, then they are in deep trouble. They have to hope that Manning can play great again for them to have any shot at winning. This is a really tough game to call, but the Falcons will win this game by a touchdown.

Final Score: Falcons-27 Denver-20

Thursday, September 13, 2012

Week 2 Thursday Night Football Pick!

GREEN BAY (-5) over Chicago: The Packers had a rough outing in their loss to San Francisco in Week 1. The Bears look solid-especially on offense-in their victory over the Colts at home in Week 1. Many people are going to overreact a little to last Sunday and pick the Bears in this game. The line is a little higher than I thought, but I am going to go with the Packers in this game. I can't see the Packers coming out of the gates 0-2. They Bears might prove me wrong, but I am sticking with the Pack tonight.

Monday, September 10, 2012

Broncos Defeat Steelers in Manning's Debut!

In one of the most exciting and memorable games in Bronco history, Denver defeated the Pittsburgh Steelers at home last night 31-19 to open the 2012 season. It was Peyton Manning's first game back since January 2011. It was Manning's first game as a Denver Bronco, and he didn't disappoint. Manning proved that he might be back for real, and he rallied the Broncos in the second half. There are so many things to talk about in this game. Here are my rapid thoughts on last night's game......

1) To see Manning introduced and running out of the tunnel was a really cool moment as a Bronco fan. It was amazing that after everything that happened all offseason the moment finally arrived.

2) It seemed like the Broncos started out conservative the first couple of drives. I was hoping that they would come out slinging it, but they didn't and Peyton Manning looked a little rusty to start as well.

3) I thought Denver did a nice job of stopping the run early. The game might have been different if Rashard Mendenhall was healthy for the Steelers, but overall Denver's rush defense stuffed the run early in the game.

4) This game changed once the Broncos went no huddle. In the second quarter, the Broncos went to the no huddle, and Peyton Manning looked like vintage Peyton Manning. He started spreading the ball around, and he commanded the offense from the line of scrimmage. It was nice to Knowshon Moreno finish off the drive with a touchdown run to give Denver the 7-3.

5) The Steelers have to hope they have seen enough of Demaryius Thomas. Thomas burned them for a 71 yard catch and run touchdown in the third quarter, and he finished with five catches for 110 yards.

5) Ben Roethlisberger is a elite QB in this league, and sometimes people forget to mention him in that class. Maybe it is a result of his off the field issues, but Big Ben is really, really good. He killed Denver all night on third and long. The Steelers were 11-19 on third down, and he absolutely lit it up on third and long. He was breaking contain and just killing the Broncos out of the pocket. He was great all night long, and he proved that he should be mentioned in that top group more often.

6) The Broncos defense could not get off the field on third down, and they were gassed by the third quarter. They simply couldn't get a third down stop, but more importantly they were able to bear down on three separate drives. The first one was when the Steelers had to settle for a 13-7 lead instead of 17-7 midway through the third quarter. The second time was when they forced to punt with about nine minutes to go in the game. The last key stop was the end of the game and it culminated with Tracy Porter's 43-yard interception return for a touchdown to clinch it with 1:42 left. How about that sack barrage by Von Miller the last series of the game? Plus, I liked Miller's little Tebow tribute after his last sack.

7) This game had a playoff type of feel to it. It felt like a big game because of Peyton Manning's debut, but as the game went on, it was a really intense game. It felt like a playoff game, and it was a great opening Sunday Night Football game for NBC. Great setting, great game, and a perfect ending to it.

8) Finally, I want to end it with Peyton Manning. As soon as Denver went no huddle, Manning started to look comfortable. He finished the night 19-26 for 253 yards and two touchdowns and no interceptions. Manning was just amazing at times. He made all the throws, he checked out of certain plays, and caught the Steelers with their pants down a couple of times on blitzes. It was classic Manning in the third quarter. On a 2nd and 1, Manning saw blitz, suckered Troy Polamalu in, and threw a quick tunnel screen to Demaryius Thomas for a 71 yard touchdown and a 14-13 lead. His throws late in the game were on point. He hit Jacob Tamme on a great sprintout to the left side to give the Broncos a 22-19 lead. He also hit Tamme on a big time third down throw to extend the drive and get the field goal to extend the lead to 25-19. I don't want to go over the top, but it was a great way to start for Manning and the Broncos. If Manning can keep this up, then this season could be really special. It is really nice to have Peyton Manning on your side of the ball.

Thursday, September 6, 2012

Week 1 Picks!!

Nothing better than getting back into the grove of a new NFL season and getting the picks going again. One thing about Week 1: There will always be a game or two that just completely shocks you. If Pittsburgh rolls into Denver and pounds the rusty Peyton Manning and the Broncos 31-17, that won't really surprise too many people. I am talking about a real shocker that sets the tone for the season and one of the two teams involved. A perfect example would be the 2003 season opener between Miami and Houston. Miami was a sexy pick that year to get to the Super Bowl in the AFC. Houston was only in their second year of existence. In Week 1, the Texans shocked the Dolphins 21-20 on a late field goal. The Dolphins did finish 10-6 that year, but they missed out on a tiebreaker and failed to make the playoffs. That one game changed the fortunes for Miami that year, and it also destroyed many suicide pools in the process. Guess who Houston opens the 2012 season with? Yup, the Dolphins head to Houston with one of the biggest lines of the week. There are a few Week 1 games that could surprise. First, keep an eye on Indianapolis at Chicago. The Bears are getting a lot of preseason hype this year, but it wouldn't shock me to see Andrew Luck throw up 330 yards and out duel Jay Cutler in a shootout at Soldier Field. Also, look out for the rookie debut of Robert Griffin III as the Redskins head to New Orleans. It wouldn't surprise me if RG III puts together some type of video game performance and leads Washington to an upset win over the Saints. The offseason is a thing of the past, and the preseason is now complete. It is now time for the start of the 2012 NFL season. Let's get it going with some Week 1 picks.......

Last Season's Regular Season Record: 112-116-14
Last Season's Playoff Record: 3-7-1
Total Cumulative Record: 115-123-15

2012 Record 0-1
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

Indianapolis (+10) over CHICAGO: Watch out for this game in Week 1. This could be the shocker of the first weekend. You have to love what you have seen out of Andrew Luck so far in Indy. The Bears defense is going into the season with some question marks-especially regarding Brian Urlacher's health. A lot of people love the Bears this year, but this game could be closer than people expect.

Philadelphia (-8) over CLEVELAND: What do you make of this game? The Browns are rebuilding and there was even some question if Trent Richardson was going to play. If he does, I still don't think it will matter. This game just looks like a real layup for the Eagles in Week 1.

Buffalo (+3) over NY JETS: I have loved this game since the day the schedule came out. This is a statement game for the Bills. They need to prove that they are better than the Jets, and this is the perfect opportunity. Their defensive line could give the Jets fits up front, and no receiver plays better against Darrelle Revis than Buffalo's Stevie Johnson. This will be a back and forth game, but look for the Bills to pull it out late.

Washington (+8) over NEW ORLEANS: Either Robert Griffin III or Andrew Luck are going to come out and pull an upset in Week 1, so why not pick both of their teams getting a lot of points. I am very interested to see how RG III does in his first real game. I just can't see the Saints coming out and dominating without Sean Payton. This could be the upset special #2 the first week.

TENNESSEE (+6) over New England: I'm picking the Titans in an upset, but it won't surprise me if the Pats are leading this game 31-10 at the half. I'm going with my gut on this one, and I'm banking on the fact that the Titans defensive line will win the matchup with the Pats offensive line.

MINNESOTA (-3.5) over Jacksonville: A battle of two bottom feeders in Week 1. I guess you take the Vikings at home in this game. Maurice Jones-Drew just ended his holdout with the Jaguars, so he might be limited in this first game. Take the Vikes only laying four.

Miami (+12) over HOUSTON: This might be the biggest mismatch in Week 1. The Texans defense should feast on rookie QB Ryan Tannehill. The crowd will be pumped, the defense will be able to tee off on that Miami offense, and the Texans should be able to pound the ball all day long. Look for an easy win at home for Houston, but I'm just not ready to lay the 12 points yet in the first week.

St. Louis (+8) over DETROIT: I'm taking the Rams and the points because I want to see what the Lions have to offer in 2012 before I start to bet with them. This game intrigues me because the Rams should be better than last year, and the Lions could take a step back. Detroit will probably win the game, but maybe the Rams keep it closer than expected.

KANSAS CITY (+3) over Atlanta: The Falcons could be walking into a buzzsaw this week. Arrowhead is always loud, and the KC fans will be really pumped up for this season opener. A lot of people believe the Chiefs are back this year, and the Falcons could be in for a rough start to their season. This game feels like a 27-10 KC win.

GREEN BAY (-5) over San Francisco: I love the Packers in this spot. This looks like one of those games where Green Bay gets an early lead with the help of Aaron Rodgers. Then, the defense forces a 49er turnover, and the next thing you know it is 14-0 with like eight minutes gone in the first quarter. Love the Pack in this game.

Seattle (-2) over ARIZONA: The Cardinals will go with John Skelton to start Week 1. They are at home, so that might be their only advantage. The Seahawks are the better team and will prove it right away in this opening game. Look for Seattle under rookie QB Russell Wilson to take it to Arizona and get the easy win.

TAMPA BAY (+3) over Carolina: New head coach Greg Schiano makes his debut for the Buccaneers. The Bucs will have some energy for this opener, and I think they will feed off it. Josh Freeman should bounce back from a down year last year, and the Bucs will be better than their 4-12 record from a year ago. I expect them to fight for a wild card spot this year. The Panthers could very well be a sleeper team in the NFC, but I think they will fall to Tampa Bay in the first game of the season.

BALTIMORE (-6) over Cincy: Not the marquee Monday Night Football opener that we are accustomed to, but it is a big game in the AFC North. The Bengals were the surprise of the AFC last year, but they couldn't beat either Pittsburgh or Baltimore. This is a huge statement game for them in their division. The Ravens are the consensus Super Bowl pick in the AFC, but they have a long way to go before they get there. They will start the season with a big win over their division rivals.

OAKLAND (-1) over San Diego: This game could go either way, but San Diego offensive tackle Jared Gaither will miss this game and that could alter the outcome. If the Chargers can't protect Philip Rivers, they had some trouble against the Raiders last year, then they will have trouble moving the ball and scoring points. Look for Darren McFadden to have a big night, and Dennis Allen gets a win in his first ever game as an NFL head coach. Take the Raiders in a mild upset.

Pittsburgh (+1) over DENVER: This is the main event of Week 1. Peyton Manning's debut as a Bronco in front of a national audience on NBC's Sunday Night Football. This is also a playoff rematch from last year's Wild Card round. Take everything that happened in that game and throw it out the window. The Steelers are not preparing for Tim Tebow and the zone-read spread offense. The Broncos can't look at anything that Pittsburgh did to them last year and use it to prepare for their new offense with Peyton Manning. Even Denver's defense will be somewhat different because the Broncos have a new defensive coordinator in Jack Del Rio, and Dennis Allen was coordinating the defense during last year's game. This will be a very tough game for Denver, but the fact that they are at home will give them an advantage. Plus, Ryan Clark will be out because of the altitude in Denver, and Rashard Mendenhall might not play too much. A lot of people are picking Denver to win, but I just need to see how Manning looks in a regular season setting at a regular season speed. Once I see Peyton and the Broncos play in a few games, then I will get a better feel for this team. Tough opener for the Broncos, and I see the Steelers coming to Denver and spoiling the party. Pittsburgh will put it away late.

Final Score: Pittsburgh-31 Denver-23


Monday, September 3, 2012

NFL Kickoff Pick!

NEW YORK GIANTS (-4) over Dallas: Since the NFL started the tradition of having the Super Bowl winner host the season opener on Thursday Night, the defending Super Bowl Champions have never lost. The record stands at 8-0 going back to the 2004 season. The Cowboys come in with uncertainty at their most important skill positions. Miles Austin and Dez Bryant haven't played a lot in the preseason, and they will most likely be without Jason Witten. Jay Ratliff is also a question mark as well. This just seems like a tall order for the Cowboys to go over to New Jersey and spoil the Giants party. Take the G-Men and the points in the kickoff opener.

Sunday, September 2, 2012

2012 Broncos Season Preview

A week from tonight the Broncos will host the Pittsburgh Steelers on NBC's Sunday Night Football. It will be the most anticipated opener in at least a decade for the entire legion of Broncos fans. The arrival of Peyton Manning has raised the bar in Denver this year, and this is the first time since John Elway retired that the Broncos have been routinely mentioned as a real Super Bowl contender. Let's take a look at the different elements of this year's team as we head into opening day.

OFFENSE: Obviously, Peyton Manning is the story here for the Broncos, but we will get to him later. The Broncos will be well-balanced on offense, and you have to think that Willis McGahee will be able to produce at least another 1,000 yards on the ground. With Lance Ball and Knowshon Moreno as his running mates, the Broncos should be able to give McGahee some breaks and still continue to run the ball effectively. Rookie Ronnie Hillman is a fast, explosive player, and he could be a real threat in the run game and on third downs as the season gets going. Up front, the Broncos will start the season without guard Chris Kuper, and their interior of the line must play better this year. Ryan Clady still mans the blindside, but they need RT Orlando Franklin to improve in his pass protection. I like the group of receivers on this team. Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas are poised to have really big seasons. Don't sleep on Brandon Stokley and Andre Caldwell too. From the moment the Broncos signed TEs Jacob Tamme and Joel Dreesen, I loved the move for this team. Look for a lot of two tight end formations and both players should be effective in the red zone. Lastly, you have Peyton Manning at the controls. After watching him in preseason, I think Manning will play at a high level. He took some shots in preseason, and he looked really sharp against the Niners in the third game. If Manning stays healthy, then I think he will have a big year. He may not be 100% and he may not be the Manning of 2010, but he is still a great player and one of the best quarterbacks of all time. He might be rusty at moments, but once he gets settled and everything kicks in watch out because Manning will be Manning. And that is very dangerous for the opposition.

DEFENSE: The best defense is a great offense. With Manning, the Broncos want to try and get an early lead for their defense and make the opposing offense play catch up. That plays right into the hands of pass rushers like Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller. Those two players are two of the best at their position, and if they can tee off on quarterbacks, then this Broncos defense will be pretty good. The front seven has some really big question marks. The departure of Broderick Bunkley will definitely hurt. If they can get anything from Ty Warren, Justin Bannan, and Kevin Vickerson, then the defense should be fine. I am really looking forward to seeing how Derek Wolfe develops on that defensive line. With D.J. Williams suspended the first six games, Joe Mays and Wesley Woodyard are in the crosshairs. Mays missed too many tackles last year, and he needs to step up his game in the middle. I like the Broncos secondary a lot. Champ Bailey is still playing at a high level, and Tracy Porter could be a real asset at the other corner. Chris Harris played really well as the nickel corner last year, and I love the potential of Omar Bolden. Mike Adams isn't a household name at safety, but the key at that position will be the development of Rahim Moore and Quinton Carter. Carter passed Moore on the depth chart last season, and Carter started down the stretch. Moore has looked better this preseason, but the jury is still out on him. They need those two young guys to improve and provide stability at the back end of their defense. This is not going to be a top 10 defense, but as long as they can get key stops, timely sacks/pressures, and big turnovers, then they will be doing their job effectively.

Overall: The Broncos were probably headed for anywhere between 6 and 8 wins in 2012 if Tim Tebow was still the quarterback. It would have been very hard to duplicate what happened last season. By getting Peyton Manning, everything changed. It is not a knock on Tebow, but Peyton Manning is a completely different animal. His addition to the Broncos changed everything. If you have a top-flight franchise quarterback, then your team can win it all every season. Even at 36, the Broncos have that with Manning. You could just tell in the preseason how much of a difference he has made for this organization. I know his health is a concern, but I've the got the feeling that Manning is going to come back with a vengeance this year. With Manning healthy, the Broncos should be at least a 10 win team and another trip to the playoffs should be on the horizon. Think about this: A week from tonight in Denver, Peyton Manning will run out of the tunnel for his first regular season game as a Denver Bronco. Last year at this time, we were talking about how Kyle Orton was going to be our starter again, and we were wondering when or if Tim Tebow will ever start a game in Denver again. What a difference a year makes. The Broncos fans are energized and the mood is completely different in Denver one year later. Peyton Manning has killed the Broncos in the past. Now, we get to see him on our side. Let the games begin!

Your 2012 Denver Broncos

The Broncos made their final cuts on Friday, and the roster is now set as we head into the season opener next Sunday night. Here is the Broncos 53 man roster. There is a chance that there will be some additional moves before Sunday's game, and there could also be moves made after the first week of the season. Here are your 2012 Denver Broncos:

QB (3): Peyton Manning, Caleb Hanie, and Brock Osweiler

RB (4): Willis McGahee, Lance Ball, Knowshon Moreno, and Ronnie Hillman

FB (1): Chris Gronkowski

WR (5): Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, Brandon Stokley, Matt Willis, and Andre Caldwell

TE (4): Joel Dreesen, Jacob Tamme, Julius Thomas, and Virgil Green (Suspended)

C (2): J.D. Walton and Philip Blake

G (4): Zane Beadles, Chris Kuper, Manny Ramirez, and C.J. Davis

T (3): Ryan Clady, Orlando Franklin, and Chris Clark

DE (4): Robert Ayers, Elvis Dumervil, Malik Jackson, and Derek Wolfe

DT (4): Ty Warren, Kevin Vickerson, Justin Bannan, and Mitch Unrein

LB (8): Von Miller, Wesley Woodyard, Joe Mays, D.J. Williams (Suspended), Nate Irving, Keith Brooking, Steven Johnson, and Danny Trevathan

CB (5): Champ Bailey, Tracy Porter, Omar Bolden, Tony Carter, and Chris Harris

S (5): Mike Adams, Rahim Moore, David Bruton, Quinton Carter, and Jim Leonhard

LS (1): Aaron Brewer

K (1): Matt Prater

P (1): Britton Colquitt

Analysis:
-The Broncos will need to make a move later in the season when Virgil Green and D.J. Williams come back from suspension. By the time they get back, there might be someone already on injured reserve at that point.
-The big surprise was the release of CB Drayton Florence. He was beaten out by Tony Carter, and the Broncos felt that Carter was playing better than Florence at this point.
-After all the talk that he was in trouble of making the roster, Knowshon Moreno made the cut, and I am happy for him. It is hard to come back from ACL surgery, but I am glad the Broncos will give him a chance to contribute for them. I would have been disappointed to see them give up on him after only three seasons. I know he hasn't played to his potential, but I'm glad he has a shot to contribute this year in some capacity.
-The depth at offensive line and defensive line seems to be a concern as we head into the regular season. Hopefully, guys like Derek Wolfe, Ty Warren, and even Malik Jackson can be swing players and play both DT and DE in certain situations. If there are any more injuries to the offensive line, then the Broncos could be in trouble, and they might need to look elsewhere for some replacments.