Sunday Night Football features the 6-0 Broncos hosting the 6-0 Packers. It is a rare occurrence that two 6-0 teams will meet in primetime. The NFL and NBC are salivating at the thought of this game, and the fact that this could be the last time we see Aaron Rodgers going head-to-head to Peyton Manning, and this game has all the star power that you need. The Broncos will also be inducting Pat Bowlen into the Ring of Fame. I actually believe that the induction of Bowlen and the return of many former players and coaches from the past Bronco teams will be a positive for the Denver. It will give the Broncos a homecoming type of feel for this game, and I think they can use that emotion. There are so many different angles to take, but there is one that I don't think many people will be thinking about. Through 6 weeks, this Broncos team reminds me of the 2006 team. That year, the Broncos defense was the story of the early part of the season, as the offense struggled under Jake Plummer to catch up. The Broncos started out 5-1 that year, and they won games with the scores of 9-6, 17-7 (twice), and 13-3 (twice.) The defense was the tops in the NFL through the first six weeks, but Peyton Manning and the high-powered Colts game to Denver in Week 7. That day, Manning cut up the Broncos defense en route to a 34-31 victory. The invincibility of the Broncos defense was over, and that unit was never the same the rest of the year as the Broncos finished 9-7 and out of the playoffs. This year, the Broncos are 6-0 with a similar situation: Dominating defense, sputtering offense, and close victories with scores like 19-13, 16-10, and 23-20. The Broncos now face a stiff challenge in the Packers high-powered offense with the best player in the league in Aaron Rodgers coming to town. Ironically, the man who broke the Broncos backs that day in 2006 is now starting at QB for Denver, and Peyton Manning is trying to turn the corner on this season and put in a vintage Manning-like performance. It is the game of the year, and it will be a very telling game for both teams. One team will be 7-0 and the other will be only 6-1, but this season will only be a success for these two teams if they are in Santa Clara in February in Super Bowl 50. This game is one of those signature moments on that journey to the Lombardi Trophy. Enjoy it because it will be a fun one to watch.
Green Bay (-3) over DENVER
Final Score: Packers 31 Broncos-20
Now, onto the games for Week 8....
Last Week's Record: 9-4-1
Overall Record: 50-53-2
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)
Kansas City (-3) over Detroit (In London): Talk about another shit game that the NFL sends to London. I guess you would have to take the Chiefs in this spot, but I just really have a tough time getting a handle on these London games.
Minnesota (+2) over CHICAGO: Why are the Bears favored here over the Vikings? It feels like this game should be the other way around according to the line.
ATLANTA (-6) over Tampa Bay: Why are so many people getting on the Falcons for only squeaking by the Titans last week in Tennessee 10-7? The Falcons are a good team, and every week in the NFL can be a dogfight. Now, the Falcons return home to take on the Bucs, who blew a 24 point lead at Washington last week. I'll take the Falcons to take care of business at home this week.
NEW ORLEANS (-3) over New York Giants: The Saints won a huge game last week on the road over Indy to get themselves back into the wildcard race in the NFC at 3-4. The Giants come into this game in first place of the NFC East with a 4-3 record. This is a very interesting game. I have to think the Saints will find a way to win this game at home to get to 4-4.
ST.LOUIS (-7) over San Francisco: The Niners have the worst PPG in the NFL at 14. They take that offensive group and head to St. Louis to take on the Rams and their defense. Advantage Rams in that category.
CLEVELAND (+7) over Arizona: The Cardinals will win this game outright, but they will struggle to do so. I feel like the Cards are the type of team that will play really well against the good teams but play down to the level of the bad teams. This feels like a 23-20 win for Arizona, and the Browns will make them earn it.
PITTSBURGH (-1) over Cincy: The best game of the early games is in Pittsburgh. The 4-3 Steelers get their crack at the 6-0 Bengals. The Bengals are bound to lose, and this could be the week. Pittsburgh is getting Ben Roethlisberger back this week, and I think the Steelers hand Cincy their first loss of the season.
BALTIMORE (-3) over San Diego: I don't know what to make of this game. The Ravens come in at 1-6 and the Chargers enter the game at 2-5. Both teams were considered playoff contenders in the preseason, but things haven't exactly played out that way. I guess the Ravens will get their second win of the year, but I don't feel very confident about this pick. Stay away from this game if you are a gambler.
Tennessee (+4) over HOUSTON: The Texans got absolutely walloped by the Dolphins last week. They really are a bad team. Anyone want to take Bill O'Brien back in the college ranks? Now, the 1-5 Titans come in. Both teams are having bad seasons, but I'll take the Titans to keep it close even though Marcus Mariota is out and Zach Mettenberger is starting.
New York Jets (-3) over OAKLAND: Interesting late game on CBS. The Raiders come in at 3-3 on the heels of a shellacking of the Chargers in San Diego. The Jets are 4-2 after losing a very hard fought game at New England last week. This should be a fun game to watch between two old AFL rivals. A lot of people are going to be picking the Raiders as home underdogs, but I just think about how much Denver's defense bottled up Derek Carr and Amari Cooper a few weeks ago, and there is no reason why the Jets defense won't be able to do the same.
Seattle (-6) over DALLAS: Another week and another marquee game featuring the Cowboys and their backup QB. At 2-4 they are desperate for a win and will try to stay afloat until Tony Romo comes back. It will be tough for Matt Cassel to try and get the job done against the hungry 3-4 Seahawks in this spot. Take Seattle giving the points on the road.
Indy (+7) over CAROLINA: I have a feeling that this is the game that Andrew Luck puts in a vintage Andrew Luck game. I know everyone is going to pick the 6-0 Panthers at home. The Colts have not looked good at all this year and this Panthers defense could cause them problems, but I think the Colts and Luck could at least keep it closer than many predict.
Saturday, October 31, 2015
Thursday, October 29, 2015
Pats-Dolphins Week 8 TNF Pick
NEW ENGLAND (-7) over Miami: At 3-3, the Dolphins have won two in a row under interim head coach Dan Campbell. Maybe Joe Philbin was the problem, but don't forget the Fish trampled the Titans and the Texans in back-to-back weeks. That isn't exactly the cream of the crop of the NFL. Now, they get to go to Foxboro for a big AFC East showdown with the 6-0 Patriots. The Pats are only laying 7 points at home to the Dolphins, and Bill Belichick gets to go heads up with Campbell on a short week. I'll take the Pats to cover the number and to 7-0.
Friday, October 23, 2015
Broncos at the Bye and Week 7 Picks!
The Broncos are 6-0 heading into the bye week, and everyone associated with the NFL is completely down on this team. I've never seen such pessimism for a team that is 6-0. I know the way their defense has been scoring for them will not be sustainable all year, but you have to give credit where credit is due. The Broncos defense is really good, their offense is a work in progress, and they are about to find out a lot about them in November when the face the Packers, Colts, and Patriots all in that month. Here is what I think about the Broncos as they head into the bye:
1) Their defense is so good. It has scored 4 defensive touchdowns already this year. They have only given up an average of only 13.5 points per game. That is pretty good to stay the least. They also lead the league in sacks. The only downside is that they have gone up against QBs like Josh McCown, Derek Carr, Teddy Bridgewater, and Alex Smith. They will have to deal with Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck, and Tom Brady next month.
2) Their offense is a real work in progress. In fact, it really sucks right now. They are only averaging 18.5 points a game. The offensive MVP of the first six games has been kicker Brandon McManus. Peyton Manning has 7 TDs and 10 interceptions and a QB rating of 72.5 Demaryius Thomas has 48 receptions and 527 yards, but only 1 touchdown. Emmanuel Sanders has 38 catches for 527 yards and 3 touchdowns. The next leading receiver on the Broncos? Owen Daniels with only 14 receptions. Their running game is even worse. Ronnie Hillman leads the team with 323 yards and 2 touchdowns, while C.J. Anderson is a real disappointment with only 180 yards and no touchdowns. Their lack of a third receiving threat is really killing them. They have no options outside of Sanders and DT. Their offensive line is still inconsistent and constantly banged up and shuffled around already, and I don't see them turning around the running game overnight. It will be interesting to see how much this offense can get going the rest of the way.
3) Peyton Manning is getting a lot of grief and he hasn't played well, but it is not his arm strength. That is not the problem. It is Manning getting comfortable with the new offense and scheme. He has thrown interceptions into coverage a lot. How does that happen to the smartest QB of all time? I think most of Manning's struggles come from the new offensive system. Also, I don't think the running game will work as well out of the pistol then it would with him under center, but he feels more at home in the shotgun, so the Broncos are trying to keep him at ease. The lack of running game, no third receiving threat, and a shaky line aren't helping Manning either. Maybe he turns it around the rest of the way, and I would love to see him do it, but I just don't know if he has it in him at this juncture.
4) The Broncos are 6-0 and have beaten the 1-5 Ravens, 1-5 Chiefs, 1-5 Lions, 3-3 Vikings, 2-3 Raiders, and 2-4 Browns. All of those games were close too. The rest of the schedule includes the Packers, Colts, Patriots, Bengals, and Steelers. We will find out just how much of a contender the Broncos are over the next 10 weeks. With that said, they have a comfortable lead in the AFC West over the 2-3 Raiders and the 2-4 Chargers. Even if they go 5-5 over the next 10 games, they will still end up 11-5 and another AFC West crown. Also, they have already played 4 road games in their first six. They still get the Packers, Pats, and Bengals at home this year, and they finish with 3 out of their last 4 at home. It is amazing because here they are at 6-0 and there are still so many more questions that need to be answered after they come back from the bye and take on the Packers on November 1st.
Last Week's Record: 10-4
Overall Record: 41-49-1
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)
JACKSONVILLE (+6) over Buffalo (In London): The Bills are without Tyrod Taylor, Percy Harvin, and Sammy Watkins. Plus, they have to travel all the way to London to play the Jags. I sense a game where Buffalo lacks a little motivation, thus keeping it closer than it normally would be.
ST.LOUIS (-4) over Cleveland: The Rams have a chance to start to make a move in the NFC and grab that last wild card spot. They should be able to unleash their defensive prowess on Josh McCown and the Browns this week.
KANSAS CITY (+3) over Pittsburgh: Landry Jones is starting for Pittsburgh. You are giving three points with Landry Jones on the road in Arrowhead if you back the Steelers this week. I'll take the Chiefs to get only their second win of the year this week.
Houston (+5) over MIAMI: How about the Dan Campbell era? In his first game as interim head coach, the Dolphins showed their dislike for prior coach Joe Philbin by coming out and storming the Titans in route to a 38-10. I just can't put my trust in the Dolphins just yet. I think they win this game, but I think the Texans make them earn it.
New York Jets (+9) over NEW ENGLAND: The game of the day in the AFC is in Foxboro between these two rivals. I like the Jets defense to give the Pats enough problems to stay in the game, and I think the Jets offense can move the ball on the Pats. If you are a Jets fan, you just worry about Ryan Fitzpatrick having his first implosion of the year. It's coming, but you hope it isn't this week.
Minnesota (-2) over DETROIT: The Vikings are another team that can start to make their move. This is a game that they have to win in order to do that. The Lions are 1-5, but they won last week, so now the Vikings have to go in there and take care of business.
Atlanta (-4) over TENNESSEE: The uncertainty of Marcus Mariota makes this an easy pick for me. I would expect a really solid performance by the Falcons on the road this week.
Tampa Bay (+4) over WASHINGTON: Can we finally put to bed the "Kirk Cousins is a young stud" idea? Maybe it is time for Jay Gruden to admit that. I'll take Lovie Smith and the Bucs on the road in this spot.
INDY (-4) over New Orleans: The Saints are at 2-4, and basically their season is on life support starting this week. A win here gets the back into the mix of things in the Wild Card picture. A loss and they are facing a steep hill to climb. At 3-3, the Colts are still in control of the putrid AFC South. Look for them to get back on track here and Andrew Luck slowly heals from his shoulder injury.
SAN DIEGO (-3) over Oakland: It seems like the Chargers would be better than their 2-4 record would indicate. This is a big game for them. The Raiders come off a bye at 2-3, so is a pretty important game in the AFC West. I have to think that the Chargers will be able to hold off their feisty rivals at home.
NY GIANTS (-3) over Dallas: Somewhere FOX executives are cursing over the fact that this game features a 3-3 Giants team going up against a 2-3 Cowboys team without the injured Tony Romo and Dez Bryant. I don't think that is what they had in mind when they were circling this game on their schedule back in the spring. In any event, here we are with a game that actually means a lot to the NFC East picture. The Giants will find a way to win this game and get to 4-3 because you can't really trust Matt Cassel on the road in this spot.
CAROLINA (-3) over Philly:
Baltimore (+8) over ARIZONA:
1) Their defense is so good. It has scored 4 defensive touchdowns already this year. They have only given up an average of only 13.5 points per game. That is pretty good to stay the least. They also lead the league in sacks. The only downside is that they have gone up against QBs like Josh McCown, Derek Carr, Teddy Bridgewater, and Alex Smith. They will have to deal with Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck, and Tom Brady next month.
2) Their offense is a real work in progress. In fact, it really sucks right now. They are only averaging 18.5 points a game. The offensive MVP of the first six games has been kicker Brandon McManus. Peyton Manning has 7 TDs and 10 interceptions and a QB rating of 72.5 Demaryius Thomas has 48 receptions and 527 yards, but only 1 touchdown. Emmanuel Sanders has 38 catches for 527 yards and 3 touchdowns. The next leading receiver on the Broncos? Owen Daniels with only 14 receptions. Their running game is even worse. Ronnie Hillman leads the team with 323 yards and 2 touchdowns, while C.J. Anderson is a real disappointment with only 180 yards and no touchdowns. Their lack of a third receiving threat is really killing them. They have no options outside of Sanders and DT. Their offensive line is still inconsistent and constantly banged up and shuffled around already, and I don't see them turning around the running game overnight. It will be interesting to see how much this offense can get going the rest of the way.
3) Peyton Manning is getting a lot of grief and he hasn't played well, but it is not his arm strength. That is not the problem. It is Manning getting comfortable with the new offense and scheme. He has thrown interceptions into coverage a lot. How does that happen to the smartest QB of all time? I think most of Manning's struggles come from the new offensive system. Also, I don't think the running game will work as well out of the pistol then it would with him under center, but he feels more at home in the shotgun, so the Broncos are trying to keep him at ease. The lack of running game, no third receiving threat, and a shaky line aren't helping Manning either. Maybe he turns it around the rest of the way, and I would love to see him do it, but I just don't know if he has it in him at this juncture.
4) The Broncos are 6-0 and have beaten the 1-5 Ravens, 1-5 Chiefs, 1-5 Lions, 3-3 Vikings, 2-3 Raiders, and 2-4 Browns. All of those games were close too. The rest of the schedule includes the Packers, Colts, Patriots, Bengals, and Steelers. We will find out just how much of a contender the Broncos are over the next 10 weeks. With that said, they have a comfortable lead in the AFC West over the 2-3 Raiders and the 2-4 Chargers. Even if they go 5-5 over the next 10 games, they will still end up 11-5 and another AFC West crown. Also, they have already played 4 road games in their first six. They still get the Packers, Pats, and Bengals at home this year, and they finish with 3 out of their last 4 at home. It is amazing because here they are at 6-0 and there are still so many more questions that need to be answered after they come back from the bye and take on the Packers on November 1st.
Last Week's Record: 10-4
Overall Record: 41-49-1
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)
JACKSONVILLE (+6) over Buffalo (In London): The Bills are without Tyrod Taylor, Percy Harvin, and Sammy Watkins. Plus, they have to travel all the way to London to play the Jags. I sense a game where Buffalo lacks a little motivation, thus keeping it closer than it normally would be.
ST.LOUIS (-4) over Cleveland: The Rams have a chance to start to make a move in the NFC and grab that last wild card spot. They should be able to unleash their defensive prowess on Josh McCown and the Browns this week.
KANSAS CITY (+3) over Pittsburgh: Landry Jones is starting for Pittsburgh. You are giving three points with Landry Jones on the road in Arrowhead if you back the Steelers this week. I'll take the Chiefs to get only their second win of the year this week.
Houston (+5) over MIAMI: How about the Dan Campbell era? In his first game as interim head coach, the Dolphins showed their dislike for prior coach Joe Philbin by coming out and storming the Titans in route to a 38-10. I just can't put my trust in the Dolphins just yet. I think they win this game, but I think the Texans make them earn it.
New York Jets (+9) over NEW ENGLAND: The game of the day in the AFC is in Foxboro between these two rivals. I like the Jets defense to give the Pats enough problems to stay in the game, and I think the Jets offense can move the ball on the Pats. If you are a Jets fan, you just worry about Ryan Fitzpatrick having his first implosion of the year. It's coming, but you hope it isn't this week.
Minnesota (-2) over DETROIT: The Vikings are another team that can start to make their move. This is a game that they have to win in order to do that. The Lions are 1-5, but they won last week, so now the Vikings have to go in there and take care of business.
Atlanta (-4) over TENNESSEE: The uncertainty of Marcus Mariota makes this an easy pick for me. I would expect a really solid performance by the Falcons on the road this week.
Tampa Bay (+4) over WASHINGTON: Can we finally put to bed the "Kirk Cousins is a young stud" idea? Maybe it is time for Jay Gruden to admit that. I'll take Lovie Smith and the Bucs on the road in this spot.
INDY (-4) over New Orleans: The Saints are at 2-4, and basically their season is on life support starting this week. A win here gets the back into the mix of things in the Wild Card picture. A loss and they are facing a steep hill to climb. At 3-3, the Colts are still in control of the putrid AFC South. Look for them to get back on track here and Andrew Luck slowly heals from his shoulder injury.
SAN DIEGO (-3) over Oakland: It seems like the Chargers would be better than their 2-4 record would indicate. This is a big game for them. The Raiders come off a bye at 2-3, so is a pretty important game in the AFC West. I have to think that the Chargers will be able to hold off their feisty rivals at home.
NY GIANTS (-3) over Dallas: Somewhere FOX executives are cursing over the fact that this game features a 3-3 Giants team going up against a 2-3 Cowboys team without the injured Tony Romo and Dez Bryant. I don't think that is what they had in mind when they were circling this game on their schedule back in the spring. In any event, here we are with a game that actually means a lot to the NFC East picture. The Giants will find a way to win this game and get to 4-3 because you can't really trust Matt Cassel on the road in this spot.
CAROLINA (-3) over Philly:
Baltimore (+8) over ARIZONA:
Wednesday, October 21, 2015
Week 7 TNF Pick!
Seattle (-5) over SAN FRANCISCO: There is no way the Seahawks are going 2-5 right? How the hell are they 2-4 and the 49ers have the same record? I have to take the Seahawks here because I just can't see them falling to 2-5. They are the better team, and I think they will take out their frustration on their division rival this Thursday.
Broncos Win OT Thriller in Cleveland 26-23
The 2015 Broncos certainly know how to keep their fanbase on the edge of their seats and biting their nails all the way to end. One thing is for sure: They are making drink a lot more beer during their games every Sunday. The Broncos outlasted the Browns in Cleveland on Sunday to get to 6-0 with a 26-23 overtime win. Brandon McManus nailed the game-winning 34 yard field goal with 6:52 seconds left in overtime. It was a pretty mundane game until Denver built a 16-7 lead in the 4th quarter, then all of a sudden the game got crazy. The Browns took the lead at 20-16, then Denver took the lead back at 23-20, then the Browns tied it late. In overtime, the Broncos shook off a Peyton Manning pick on their first drive, and their defense stepped up to stop the Browns and force a crucial punt, then the offense did enough to win the game on the final drive in overtime. This game has a lot of aspects to it-both good and bad for the Broncos, but the bottom line is that they won and they now stand at 6-0 heading into their bye week. Here are my thoughts and observations about the game...
1) The Broncos got an early lead on the Browns 10-0. Aqib Talib stepped in front of a Josh McCown pass and took it 63 yards for a touchdown to give them the lead in the second quarter. He also made a sick play breaking up a potential touchdown in the third quarter. How many times can this defense score a touchdown of their own this season?
2) The Broncos couldn't extend their early lead because their red zone offense continues to suffer. They had chances in the first three quarters to put this game away. It could have very easily been 14-0 or even 21-7 at one point.
3) Shaq Barrett gets my game ball because he was all over the field. He had 1.5 sacks and he was a presence in the run game. He also forced a huge fumble on a sack of McCown that set up a Denver field late in the third quarter to give Denver a 13-7 lead. With Demarcus Ware out, he really stepped up. I like his play all year.
4) The Broncos defense continues to swarm and attack opposing QBs. They had 4 sacks on the day and pressured McCown throughout the afternoon.
5) Ronnie Hillman still is the best option for this team in the run game. He compiled 111 yards on 20 carries and he consistenly seemed to be gaining yardage.
6) I thought a key moment in the game was when McManus missed a 51 yard field goal before the half to extend the lead to 13-0.
7) This game got really interesting after the Broncos built a 16-7 fourth quarter lead. After a ho-hum kind of performance for awhile, the game turned into a barn-burner. On a 3rd and 9 from their own 21, McCown throws up a prayer down the sideline. Darian Stewart does his best Rahim Moore impression and misplays the ball in the air and Travis Benjamin comes down with it at the Broncos 32 for a huge first down. McCown then hits Gary Barnidge for an easy touchdown on third down to make it 16-14 with 9:16 to go. This game should not have been this close. Just wait it gets worse for the Broncos.
8) On the next series, Manning gets picked off by Karlos Dansby and he returns it 35 yards for a pick-six. Manning was a little unlucky here because the ball tipped off of Ronnie Hillman's hands and right into the hands of Dansby. Nevertheless, the Browns all of a sudden have the lead on the Broncos in a game that should be one-sided in Denver's favor.
9) I have no idea what Mike Pettine was thinking when he went for two up 20-16. There is really no difference in being up 21-16 or being up 22-16. I don't know why he did it and Denver's defense stopped the Browns and that turned out to be a really key moment in the game.
10) On the very next play, Peyton Manning throw an absolute laser to Emmanuel Sanders on a go route, and Sanders went all the way for a 75 yard touchdown to retake the lead for Denver 23-20. It was like Manning said, "Fuck this, I'll show them I still have it in the tank." What a throw by Manning. Why can't he do that more consistently. Also, great call by Gary Kubiak to go right after the Browns after the momentum was all in their favor. That is a trait from the Mike Shanahan-Kubiak days. If you give up a big play, come back right away on offense and go for your own big play.
11) The Broncos defense couldn't hold near the end of the game thought. They let the Browns drive down and score the game tying field goal at 23 with 1:33 left in the game. The drive was aided by a terrible roughing the passer penalty by Derek Wolfe.
12) Demaryius Thomas has killed the Broncos with some drops the last two weeks, and he had a big drop late in the game with 1:20 left when he dropped a wide-open slant route near midfield. It is possible that if he catches that, then the Broncos win the game in regulation.
13) Thank god McCown threw an awful interception with 44 seconds left to David Bruton. It was a terrible decision and a terrible throw.
14) Manning's interception on the first drive of overtime was just awful. Where was he throwing the ball? There were like 3 Browns around the receiver. Just amazing to see him make that kind of throw in that spot.
15) The Browns took over at the Broncos 39 yard line needing only a field goal to win the game. Give the Broncos defense credit because they shut the door on the Browns in this spot. Shaq Barrett tackled Robert Turbin for a three yard loss on first down. Malik Jackson sacked McCown on 2nd down, and Jackson, Derek Wolfe and Antonio Smith all combined to take down McCown for another sack on 3rd down. What a sequence for the Broncos defense who comes up big once again this season. That is a championship type of defense right there.
16) Manning hit Owen Daniels on a big third down conversion to start the drive. Hillman and C.J. Anderson took over from there as they willed the Broncos down the field for the game winning kick by McManus.
17) I'll break down all the Broncos problems and issues-especially with Peyton Manning and the offense- later in the week before I make my Week 7 picks. This team is 6-0 and we can't forget that. There are a lot of things that we can bitch about with this team, but you can't give wins back, and the Broncos are 6-0 with a pretty comfortable lead in the AFC West as they head to the bye week.
1) The Broncos got an early lead on the Browns 10-0. Aqib Talib stepped in front of a Josh McCown pass and took it 63 yards for a touchdown to give them the lead in the second quarter. He also made a sick play breaking up a potential touchdown in the third quarter. How many times can this defense score a touchdown of their own this season?
2) The Broncos couldn't extend their early lead because their red zone offense continues to suffer. They had chances in the first three quarters to put this game away. It could have very easily been 14-0 or even 21-7 at one point.
3) Shaq Barrett gets my game ball because he was all over the field. He had 1.5 sacks and he was a presence in the run game. He also forced a huge fumble on a sack of McCown that set up a Denver field late in the third quarter to give Denver a 13-7 lead. With Demarcus Ware out, he really stepped up. I like his play all year.
4) The Broncos defense continues to swarm and attack opposing QBs. They had 4 sacks on the day and pressured McCown throughout the afternoon.
5) Ronnie Hillman still is the best option for this team in the run game. He compiled 111 yards on 20 carries and he consistenly seemed to be gaining yardage.
6) I thought a key moment in the game was when McManus missed a 51 yard field goal before the half to extend the lead to 13-0.
7) This game got really interesting after the Broncos built a 16-7 fourth quarter lead. After a ho-hum kind of performance for awhile, the game turned into a barn-burner. On a 3rd and 9 from their own 21, McCown throws up a prayer down the sideline. Darian Stewart does his best Rahim Moore impression and misplays the ball in the air and Travis Benjamin comes down with it at the Broncos 32 for a huge first down. McCown then hits Gary Barnidge for an easy touchdown on third down to make it 16-14 with 9:16 to go. This game should not have been this close. Just wait it gets worse for the Broncos.
8) On the next series, Manning gets picked off by Karlos Dansby and he returns it 35 yards for a pick-six. Manning was a little unlucky here because the ball tipped off of Ronnie Hillman's hands and right into the hands of Dansby. Nevertheless, the Browns all of a sudden have the lead on the Broncos in a game that should be one-sided in Denver's favor.
9) I have no idea what Mike Pettine was thinking when he went for two up 20-16. There is really no difference in being up 21-16 or being up 22-16. I don't know why he did it and Denver's defense stopped the Browns and that turned out to be a really key moment in the game.
10) On the very next play, Peyton Manning throw an absolute laser to Emmanuel Sanders on a go route, and Sanders went all the way for a 75 yard touchdown to retake the lead for Denver 23-20. It was like Manning said, "Fuck this, I'll show them I still have it in the tank." What a throw by Manning. Why can't he do that more consistently. Also, great call by Gary Kubiak to go right after the Browns after the momentum was all in their favor. That is a trait from the Mike Shanahan-Kubiak days. If you give up a big play, come back right away on offense and go for your own big play.
11) The Broncos defense couldn't hold near the end of the game thought. They let the Browns drive down and score the game tying field goal at 23 with 1:33 left in the game. The drive was aided by a terrible roughing the passer penalty by Derek Wolfe.
12) Demaryius Thomas has killed the Broncos with some drops the last two weeks, and he had a big drop late in the game with 1:20 left when he dropped a wide-open slant route near midfield. It is possible that if he catches that, then the Broncos win the game in regulation.
13) Thank god McCown threw an awful interception with 44 seconds left to David Bruton. It was a terrible decision and a terrible throw.
14) Manning's interception on the first drive of overtime was just awful. Where was he throwing the ball? There were like 3 Browns around the receiver. Just amazing to see him make that kind of throw in that spot.
15) The Browns took over at the Broncos 39 yard line needing only a field goal to win the game. Give the Broncos defense credit because they shut the door on the Browns in this spot. Shaq Barrett tackled Robert Turbin for a three yard loss on first down. Malik Jackson sacked McCown on 2nd down, and Jackson, Derek Wolfe and Antonio Smith all combined to take down McCown for another sack on 3rd down. What a sequence for the Broncos defense who comes up big once again this season. That is a championship type of defense right there.
16) Manning hit Owen Daniels on a big third down conversion to start the drive. Hillman and C.J. Anderson took over from there as they willed the Broncos down the field for the game winning kick by McManus.
17) I'll break down all the Broncos problems and issues-especially with Peyton Manning and the offense- later in the week before I make my Week 7 picks. This team is 6-0 and we can't forget that. There are a lot of things that we can bitch about with this team, but you can't give wins back, and the Broncos are 6-0 with a pretty comfortable lead in the AFC West as they head to the bye week.
Friday, October 16, 2015
Week 6 Picks and Broncos-Browns Preview!
The Broncos travel to Cleveland this week to take on the Browns. Did you know that the Browns have not beaten the Broncos since October of 1990? I always get nervous when there are streaks that totally favor your team because the odds are that a streak like that will be broken at some point. The Broncos could get upset this week because of these factors: The game is an early game in Cleveland, so that is technically 11 am Denver time. I always worry about the Broncos and early starts. They are really banged up. It looks like Demarcus Ware is out and Aqib Talib is very questionable. Plus, they have flirting with defeat all year long, and they are bound to come up short one week. The Browns are 2-3, but they have been very competitive. They won a big game last week in Baltimore, and no one thought they were winning that game. I think this game could be the upset of the weekend.
CLEVELAND (+4) over Denver
Final Score: Browns-23 Broncos-16
Last Week's Record: 3-10-1
Overall Record: 31-45-1
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)
Cincy (-3) over BUFFALO: The Bengals take their 5-0 record to Buffalo this week to take on the 3-2 Bills. It looks like Buffalo QB Tyrod Taylor will be out of the lineup with a knee injury. That leaves E.J. Manuel as the starter for Sunday's game. I think the Bengals will get by this one because they are going up against the backup. If Taylor was starting, then I think the Bills would win, but with Manuel in there, I have to go with the Bengals to get to 6-0.
MINNESOTA (-4) over Kansas City: Do you have any faith in the Chiefs after they blew a 17-6 4th quarter lead at home to the Bears last week? I don't, and I think the Vikings will take them down this week at home.
Houston (+2) over JACKSONVILLE: Blake Bortles is questionable, but even if he plays, I have a hard time backing the Jags-even at home. Don't get me wrong. The Texans are equally disappointing this year, but I have a feeling they will get the win on the road this week.
DETROIT (-2) over Chicago: The Lions are 0-5, and they looked awful last week at home vs. Arizona. Now, the 2-3 Bears roll into town. I have no idea why I am taking the Lions, but I figure they won't fall to 0-6, and I think that they will find a way to win the game.
NY JETS (-5) over Washington: As you start to look ahead, it shapes up pretty nicely for the Jets. Their schedule is very friendly at times, and I see them going 10-6 and making the playoffs as a wild card this year. This week they get the Redskins, and I just can't see the Jets blowing this game at home to Kirk Cousins.
PITTSBURGH (+4) over Arizona: You have to love what the 4-1 Cardinals are doing, but I have a feeling the Steelers are going to figure a way to win this game this week. They earned a hard-fought win over the Chargers in San Diego last Monday night, and I think Mike Vick can at least stabilize their season before Big Ben comes back. I'll take them as a rare home underdog on Sunday.
TENNESSEE (-2) over Miami: What a debacle the Dolphins are. With the firing of Joe Philbin during the bye week and the promotion of TE coach Dan Campbell to head coach, you have to wonder what the hell is going on down there. You can't trust them in this spot: New interim head coach, on the road, against a feisty rookie QB and much improved team. Give me the Titans only laying 2.
Carolina (+7) over SEATTLE: The Panthers take their 4-0 record into Seattle to take on the 2-3 Seahawks. I would be very surprised if the Seahawks lost this game, but do think that the Panthers will play the type of game they like to play and keep this contest close to the vest.
San Diego (+11) over GREEN BAY: Nobody is stopping the 5-0 Packers-especially at home in Lambeau Field. The Chargers come limping into town after a terrible last second loss to the Braves last Monday night. I think Green Bay wins handily, but I could sense the late, back-door cover.
Baltimore (-2) over SAN FRANCISCO: A rematch of Super Bowl XLVII. Too bad these 1-4 teams are nothing like the teams that took the field last Sunday. I'm taking the Ravens only because they have more of a chance of being 2-4 after this game than the 49ers.
New England (-8) over INDY: For the first time since the AFC Championship Game last January, Tom Brady, Bill Belichick, and the Patriots meet the Colts. Whenever, you give the Pats a little extra motivation, they seem to thrive on it and take that motivation out on their opponent. Look for the same story here on SNF. This is a fascinating matchup because of all the drama that the whole Deflategate situation created. The Pats will look to stick it to the Colts as a result, but in reality the Patriots are so much better than the Colts at this point, that this game shouldn't be very close at the end.
New York Giants (+4) over PHILLY: Good Monday Night Football game as the 3-2 Giants head to Philly to take on the 2-3 Eagles. With Tony Romo out for Dallas until around Thanksgiving, I really believe that the NFC East will come down to these two teams-even with their flaws. I have a feeling the G-Men will find a way to win a close game on the road.
CLEVELAND (+4) over Denver
Final Score: Browns-23 Broncos-16
Last Week's Record: 3-10-1
Overall Record: 31-45-1
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)
Cincy (-3) over BUFFALO: The Bengals take their 5-0 record to Buffalo this week to take on the 3-2 Bills. It looks like Buffalo QB Tyrod Taylor will be out of the lineup with a knee injury. That leaves E.J. Manuel as the starter for Sunday's game. I think the Bengals will get by this one because they are going up against the backup. If Taylor was starting, then I think the Bills would win, but with Manuel in there, I have to go with the Bengals to get to 6-0.
MINNESOTA (-4) over Kansas City: Do you have any faith in the Chiefs after they blew a 17-6 4th quarter lead at home to the Bears last week? I don't, and I think the Vikings will take them down this week at home.
Houston (+2) over JACKSONVILLE: Blake Bortles is questionable, but even if he plays, I have a hard time backing the Jags-even at home. Don't get me wrong. The Texans are equally disappointing this year, but I have a feeling they will get the win on the road this week.
DETROIT (-2) over Chicago: The Lions are 0-5, and they looked awful last week at home vs. Arizona. Now, the 2-3 Bears roll into town. I have no idea why I am taking the Lions, but I figure they won't fall to 0-6, and I think that they will find a way to win the game.
NY JETS (-5) over Washington: As you start to look ahead, it shapes up pretty nicely for the Jets. Their schedule is very friendly at times, and I see them going 10-6 and making the playoffs as a wild card this year. This week they get the Redskins, and I just can't see the Jets blowing this game at home to Kirk Cousins.
PITTSBURGH (+4) over Arizona: You have to love what the 4-1 Cardinals are doing, but I have a feeling the Steelers are going to figure a way to win this game this week. They earned a hard-fought win over the Chargers in San Diego last Monday night, and I think Mike Vick can at least stabilize their season before Big Ben comes back. I'll take them as a rare home underdog on Sunday.
TENNESSEE (-2) over Miami: What a debacle the Dolphins are. With the firing of Joe Philbin during the bye week and the promotion of TE coach Dan Campbell to head coach, you have to wonder what the hell is going on down there. You can't trust them in this spot: New interim head coach, on the road, against a feisty rookie QB and much improved team. Give me the Titans only laying 2.
Carolina (+7) over SEATTLE: The Panthers take their 4-0 record into Seattle to take on the 2-3 Seahawks. I would be very surprised if the Seahawks lost this game, but do think that the Panthers will play the type of game they like to play and keep this contest close to the vest.
San Diego (+11) over GREEN BAY: Nobody is stopping the 5-0 Packers-especially at home in Lambeau Field. The Chargers come limping into town after a terrible last second loss to the Braves last Monday night. I think Green Bay wins handily, but I could sense the late, back-door cover.
Baltimore (-2) over SAN FRANCISCO: A rematch of Super Bowl XLVII. Too bad these 1-4 teams are nothing like the teams that took the field last Sunday. I'm taking the Ravens only because they have more of a chance of being 2-4 after this game than the 49ers.
New England (-8) over INDY: For the first time since the AFC Championship Game last January, Tom Brady, Bill Belichick, and the Patriots meet the Colts. Whenever, you give the Pats a little extra motivation, they seem to thrive on it and take that motivation out on their opponent. Look for the same story here on SNF. This is a fascinating matchup because of all the drama that the whole Deflategate situation created. The Pats will look to stick it to the Colts as a result, but in reality the Patriots are so much better than the Colts at this point, that this game shouldn't be very close at the end.
New York Giants (+4) over PHILLY: Good Monday Night Football game as the 3-2 Giants head to Philly to take on the 2-3 Eagles. With Tony Romo out for Dallas until around Thanksgiving, I really believe that the NFC East will come down to these two teams-even with their flaws. I have a feeling the G-Men will find a way to win a close game on the road.
Wednesday, October 14, 2015
Week 6 TNF Pick!
NEW ORLEANS (+5) over Atlanta: The Saints were are 1-4 and look about as dead as a door nail. The Drew Brees-Sean Payton era might be over after this year. I will give the Saints one last shot, and they might be able to pull the upset at home over the 5-0 Falcons. I might regret this pick, but I'll the Saints one last chance to redeem their season.
Tuesday, October 13, 2015
Broncos Defense Does It Again- Denver Surivives in Oakland 16-10
No matter how you get it done, winning is winning. If it is 41-10 or 38-20, 51-48, or even 16-10, a W is a W. We were so used to those big scores and plethora of points in the Peyton Manning era in Denver. The 2015 Broncos are forming a different era. Through five games, it is the defense that is winning games 19-13, 24-12, 23-20, and 16-10 like the Broncos handled the Raiders Sunday in Oakland. Chris Harris and the defense did it again late when Harris picked off a Derek Carr pass and raced 74 yards for the game-clinching score with just over six minutes to go in the game. With Denver nursing a 9-7 lead, the Raiders were driving for the lead when Carr rushed a throw over the middle and the pass hit Harris right in the numbers and he raced untouched for the winning score. For the fifth straight game, the Broncos defense made a defining play that determined the outcome of the game. The Broncos are now 5-0, and they will head to Cleveland next Sunday for a chance to get to 6-0 when they take on the Browns. Here is my breakdown with thoughts and observations on the game....
1) As I said earlier, the Broncos defense is the story of the season-including the entire NFL. The pick-six by Harris was the third defensive touchdown by Denver this year. The Broncos did have some trouble at times, but for the most part they played a really good game once again. They shut down the Raiders running game and limited Latavius Murray to only 39 yards on the ground. They got the interception, the touchdown by Harris, four sacks, a forced fumble and they even blocked a field goal. What else do you want from them? Make no mistake: If they didn't play that well yesterday, then the Broncos were going to lose the game.
2) One of the most underrated plays of the game on defense was the strip sack by Von Miller. On the Raiders' first possession of the third quarter, up 7-3, Miller hit Carr and stripped him of the ball at the same time. It set up a Denver field goal. From there, the Raiders and Carr really struggled to do much on offense in the second half-until the drive when Carr got picked off by Harris. Miller was awesome yesterday. Sylvester Williams played well, Aqib Talib was really good, and Brandon Marshall did his thing as well. Give credit to Shaq Barrett, who got another sack, and continues to flash on the screen when he is in the game.
3) The offense and Peyton Manning just can't seem to get it going. The running game is still bogged down. Ronnie Hillman was finding no room to run, and C.J. Anderson continues to disappoint. Both finished with 22 and 21 yards respectively. The redzone offense was really bad yesterday as well. Hillman dropped a touchdown pass in the second quarter, and Demaryius Thomas dropped one in the third quarter. Manning's numbers weren't awful. He completed 22-35 passes for 266 yards, but he threw two costly interceptions and no touchdowns. He now has 7 interceptions and only 6 touchdown passes so far this year. His first pick was an awful through over the middle to Owen Daniels in the end zone late in the second quarter down 7-3. Daniels wasn't open and Charles Woodson picked it off. His second pick was in the third quarter when he floated a corner route to DT, who was doubled covered, and Woodson had his second pick of Manning. I thought he made some good throws, but he couldn't buy a break in the redzone and his mistakes overshadow what he does well-like the bomb to Sanders on the second possession of the game that led to a field goal. Also, every week he hits Thomas on a jumpball type of throw and that has become a deadly weapon in his arsenal. It is just really weird to see Manning struggle like this, but I still believe that he can and will improve and get his game back on track for his standards this season. The offense in general can't produce in the redzone with no running game, and even when they are moving the ball it seems like they shoot themselves in the foot with a penalty, and they can't recover and the drive is stalled for good. One last thing on Manning: With the victory, he is now 19-1 vs. the AFC West since his arrival in Denver in 2012. His record as a starter in Denver is now 45-13.
4) Brandon McManus hit three field goals, and he has been perfect this season on field goals. Whatever adjustments he made from last year have certainly helped because he might be our offensive MVP so far this year.
5) It was such a back and forth defensive game that it reminded me of the Ravens game from Week 1. It actually makes me feel better when the defense is on the field. It is like I expect them bail us out and make a play to win the game. We all know that the Broncos are not going to win the Super Bowl like this, but if we can just get the offense going in the right direction consistently with a running game, then I think the team will be a complete team and very dangerous.
6) The Broncos improve to 5-0 on the year. They are 3-0 on the road so far, and this win gives them a NFL record 14th straight road divisional win dating back to the 2011 Tebow year. The last Denver loss on the road in the division was at Oakland in December of 2010-Tebow's first start his rookie year. The Broncos head to Cleveland next week to take on the 2-3 Browns in the early window on Sunday afternoon. The Broncos could be without Demarcus Ware and Aqib Talib for this week's game.
1) As I said earlier, the Broncos defense is the story of the season-including the entire NFL. The pick-six by Harris was the third defensive touchdown by Denver this year. The Broncos did have some trouble at times, but for the most part they played a really good game once again. They shut down the Raiders running game and limited Latavius Murray to only 39 yards on the ground. They got the interception, the touchdown by Harris, four sacks, a forced fumble and they even blocked a field goal. What else do you want from them? Make no mistake: If they didn't play that well yesterday, then the Broncos were going to lose the game.
2) One of the most underrated plays of the game on defense was the strip sack by Von Miller. On the Raiders' first possession of the third quarter, up 7-3, Miller hit Carr and stripped him of the ball at the same time. It set up a Denver field goal. From there, the Raiders and Carr really struggled to do much on offense in the second half-until the drive when Carr got picked off by Harris. Miller was awesome yesterday. Sylvester Williams played well, Aqib Talib was really good, and Brandon Marshall did his thing as well. Give credit to Shaq Barrett, who got another sack, and continues to flash on the screen when he is in the game.
3) The offense and Peyton Manning just can't seem to get it going. The running game is still bogged down. Ronnie Hillman was finding no room to run, and C.J. Anderson continues to disappoint. Both finished with 22 and 21 yards respectively. The redzone offense was really bad yesterday as well. Hillman dropped a touchdown pass in the second quarter, and Demaryius Thomas dropped one in the third quarter. Manning's numbers weren't awful. He completed 22-35 passes for 266 yards, but he threw two costly interceptions and no touchdowns. He now has 7 interceptions and only 6 touchdown passes so far this year. His first pick was an awful through over the middle to Owen Daniels in the end zone late in the second quarter down 7-3. Daniels wasn't open and Charles Woodson picked it off. His second pick was in the third quarter when he floated a corner route to DT, who was doubled covered, and Woodson had his second pick of Manning. I thought he made some good throws, but he couldn't buy a break in the redzone and his mistakes overshadow what he does well-like the bomb to Sanders on the second possession of the game that led to a field goal. Also, every week he hits Thomas on a jumpball type of throw and that has become a deadly weapon in his arsenal. It is just really weird to see Manning struggle like this, but I still believe that he can and will improve and get his game back on track for his standards this season. The offense in general can't produce in the redzone with no running game, and even when they are moving the ball it seems like they shoot themselves in the foot with a penalty, and they can't recover and the drive is stalled for good. One last thing on Manning: With the victory, he is now 19-1 vs. the AFC West since his arrival in Denver in 2012. His record as a starter in Denver is now 45-13.
4) Brandon McManus hit three field goals, and he has been perfect this season on field goals. Whatever adjustments he made from last year have certainly helped because he might be our offensive MVP so far this year.
5) It was such a back and forth defensive game that it reminded me of the Ravens game from Week 1. It actually makes me feel better when the defense is on the field. It is like I expect them bail us out and make a play to win the game. We all know that the Broncos are not going to win the Super Bowl like this, but if we can just get the offense going in the right direction consistently with a running game, then I think the team will be a complete team and very dangerous.
6) The Broncos improve to 5-0 on the year. They are 3-0 on the road so far, and this win gives them a NFL record 14th straight road divisional win dating back to the 2011 Tebow year. The last Denver loss on the road in the division was at Oakland in December of 2010-Tebow's first start his rookie year. The Broncos head to Cleveland next week to take on the 2-3 Browns in the early window on Sunday afternoon. The Broncos could be without Demarcus Ware and Aqib Talib for this week's game.
Sunday, October 11, 2015
Broncos-Raiders and Week 5 Picks
The Broncos head to Oakland this weekend to take on the Raiders. Denver enters the game at 4-0, and the Raiders enter the contest with a 2-2 record and a bit more optimism than in the past. Make no mistake, the Raiders have some talent. David Carr, Latavius Murray, and Amari Cooper have impressed so far this year, and Khalil Mack leads the defense under new coach Jack Del Rio. We know what Del Rio is going to do. He is going to go after Peyton Manning and play man to man across the board. He has seen Manning up close and personal the last three years, and he know s where he wants to attack him. Denver has won four straight games in Oakland dating back to 2011. They haven't lost to the Raiders since Week 1 of the 2011 season when Kyle Orton was the starting QB. The last three games in Oakland with Peyton Manning at the helm of the Broncos wasn't even close as Denver rolled in each one. I sense there is a lot of momentum heading towards the Raiders in this one. I think that is the public still doubting Manning more than anything else. I think this will be a close game, and I definitely could see the Raiders winning, but I like Denver to extend their NFL record road divisional winning streak to 14 with a tough, grind it out win over the Raiders on Sunday afternoon.
Denver (-4) over OAKLAND
Final Score: Broncos-22 Raiders-17
Now, onto the picks for Week 5......
Last Week's Record: 8-7
Overall Record: 28-35
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)
TAMPA BAY (-3) over Jacksonville: The battle of two franchises whose fan base cares more about college football than their own NFL teams. At 1-3, I thought the Bucs would look more impressive than they have, but I think they will overwhelm the 1-3 Jags this week at home.
TENNESSEE (+3) over Buffalo: The Bills lead the league in penalties and are up and down at 2-2 after four weeks. I would suspect that Rex Ryan will dial some blitzes up for Marcus Mariota, but I have a feeling the Titans pull the upset in Tennessee.
BALTIMORE (-5) over Cleveland: At 1-3, the Ravens avoided the dreaded 0-4 start with a wild win late over Pittsburgh last Thursday night. Now, they get the 1-3 Browns, who have looked pretty decent at times, in Baltimore. I see the Ravens winning by at least a touchdown-especially since they have had 10 days to rest after the Steeler game.
ATLANTA (-7) over Washington: I like what I see out of Atlanta and Dan Quinn right now. At 4-0, they are rolling and the combination of Julio Jones and Devonta Freeman is pretty deadly right now. I look for them to roll over the Skins in the Georgia Dome to get to 5-0.
KANSAS CITY (-8) over Chicago: I can't see the Bears going into Arrowhead and winning this game over the Chiefs. The Chiefs are 1-3, but they are better than their record indicates. They blew the Denver game in Week 2, and had got blown out in losses at Green Bay and Cincy. I would expect them to do a number on Jay Cutler with Tamba Hali and Justin Houston licking their chops.
New Orleans (+5) over PHILADELPHIA: I can't trust Philly until I see it happen for real. I think the Saints in for a down year again, but with Drew Brees back playing that might give them a chance perhaps. Both teams are 1-3, and this is basically a "Loser Leaves Town" match. The loser of this game isn't making a playoff run this year.
St. Louis (+9) over GREEN BAY: The Packers will win, but I would think that the Rams will be able to keep this game somewhat close with their defense. We know how dominating the Packers are at home in recent years with Aaron Rodgers, but I'm banking on a backdoor cover by St. Louis late.
CINCY (-3 ) over Seattle: This is the best matchup of the early games in my opinion. I am tempted to pick Seattle, but just how good are the Seahawks right now? They start out 0-2, and then they bomb Jimmy Clausen and the Bears at home. Then, they get a gift with the late fumble and "bat" non-call by the refs to beat the Lions 13-10 in Week 4. I usually don't back the Bengals, but you have to like how they have started the season at 4-0 so far.
DETROIT (+3) over Arizona: This is one of those games that no one picks in Detroit's favor, but I'll go the other way and take the Lions in an upset.
DALLAS (+9) over New England: Brandon Weeden has lost 10 straight starts in the NFL, and now he gets to take on the Patriots at home. The Pats look great coming in at 3-0, and Tom Brady is off to a fantastic start. New England will win the game, but I think the Cowboys will at least be able to keep it close.
NY GIANTS (-7) over San Francisco: The Niners and Colin Kaepernick are a mess right now. It is amazing how far Kaep's star has fallen the past couple of years. I can't see the Giants losing this game at home. At 2-2, they could easily be 4-0, and they will improve to 3-2 after this win on Sunday Night Football. By the way, can't we flex out of this game somehow?
SAN DIEGO (-3) over Pittsburgh: Two teams that are 2-2 and that is about right for them. The Steelers are trying to tread water until Big Ben returns in about a month. The Chargers are a little puzzling too. They just squeaked out a win over the Browns at home last week. I like the Chargers at home, but I don't have a lot of confidence in this pick.
Denver (-4) over OAKLAND
Final Score: Broncos-22 Raiders-17
Now, onto the picks for Week 5......
Last Week's Record: 8-7
Overall Record: 28-35
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)
TAMPA BAY (-3) over Jacksonville: The battle of two franchises whose fan base cares more about college football than their own NFL teams. At 1-3, I thought the Bucs would look more impressive than they have, but I think they will overwhelm the 1-3 Jags this week at home.
TENNESSEE (+3) over Buffalo: The Bills lead the league in penalties and are up and down at 2-2 after four weeks. I would suspect that Rex Ryan will dial some blitzes up for Marcus Mariota, but I have a feeling the Titans pull the upset in Tennessee.
BALTIMORE (-5) over Cleveland: At 1-3, the Ravens avoided the dreaded 0-4 start with a wild win late over Pittsburgh last Thursday night. Now, they get the 1-3 Browns, who have looked pretty decent at times, in Baltimore. I see the Ravens winning by at least a touchdown-especially since they have had 10 days to rest after the Steeler game.
ATLANTA (-7) over Washington: I like what I see out of Atlanta and Dan Quinn right now. At 4-0, they are rolling and the combination of Julio Jones and Devonta Freeman is pretty deadly right now. I look for them to roll over the Skins in the Georgia Dome to get to 5-0.
KANSAS CITY (-8) over Chicago: I can't see the Bears going into Arrowhead and winning this game over the Chiefs. The Chiefs are 1-3, but they are better than their record indicates. They blew the Denver game in Week 2, and had got blown out in losses at Green Bay and Cincy. I would expect them to do a number on Jay Cutler with Tamba Hali and Justin Houston licking their chops.
New Orleans (+5) over PHILADELPHIA: I can't trust Philly until I see it happen for real. I think the Saints in for a down year again, but with Drew Brees back playing that might give them a chance perhaps. Both teams are 1-3, and this is basically a "Loser Leaves Town" match. The loser of this game isn't making a playoff run this year.
St. Louis (+9) over GREEN BAY: The Packers will win, but I would think that the Rams will be able to keep this game somewhat close with their defense. We know how dominating the Packers are at home in recent years with Aaron Rodgers, but I'm banking on a backdoor cover by St. Louis late.
CINCY (-3 ) over Seattle: This is the best matchup of the early games in my opinion. I am tempted to pick Seattle, but just how good are the Seahawks right now? They start out 0-2, and then they bomb Jimmy Clausen and the Bears at home. Then, they get a gift with the late fumble and "bat" non-call by the refs to beat the Lions 13-10 in Week 4. I usually don't back the Bengals, but you have to like how they have started the season at 4-0 so far.
DETROIT (+3) over Arizona: This is one of those games that no one picks in Detroit's favor, but I'll go the other way and take the Lions in an upset.
DALLAS (+9) over New England: Brandon Weeden has lost 10 straight starts in the NFL, and now he gets to take on the Patriots at home. The Pats look great coming in at 3-0, and Tom Brady is off to a fantastic start. New England will win the game, but I think the Cowboys will at least be able to keep it close.
NY GIANTS (-7) over San Francisco: The Niners and Colin Kaepernick are a mess right now. It is amazing how far Kaep's star has fallen the past couple of years. I can't see the Giants losing this game at home. At 2-2, they could easily be 4-0, and they will improve to 3-2 after this win on Sunday Night Football. By the way, can't we flex out of this game somehow?
SAN DIEGO (-3) over Pittsburgh: Two teams that are 2-2 and that is about right for them. The Steelers are trying to tread water until Big Ben returns in about a month. The Chargers are a little puzzling too. They just squeaked out a win over the Browns at home last week. I like the Chargers at home, but I don't have a lot of confidence in this pick.
Wednesday, October 7, 2015
Week 5 TNF Pick
HOUSTON (-1) over Indianapolis: With the uncertainty of Andrew Luck and his shoulder injury, I just can't be confident in picking the Colts on a short week. Look for the Texans, at 1-3, to go all out and find a way to win the game-even if Luck ends up playing.
Broncos Hold Off Vikings 23-20 in Thriller- Get to 4-0
Once again, the Broncos played a game that came down to the final minutes. Once again, their defense stepped up and made the play to win the game. Denver outlasted Minnesota 23-20 in a thriller on Sunday in Mile High. In a game that Denver led 13-0 at one point, the Broncos held off a late rally by Teddy Bridgewater and a T.J. Ward strip sack sealed the victory. The Broncos are now off to a 4-0 start, and they head to Oakland next week. Here are my thoughts and observations on the game.....
1) Another game another stellar performance by the Broncos defense. Forget the nickname "The Orange Crush." This Broncos defense is more like the "Orange Swarm." That is what the Broncos do: They swarm and attack. Demarcus Ware was unstoppable and the defense totaled 7 sacks. None bigger was the sack by T.J. Ward and the forced fumble that was recovered by Von Miller to seal the game late. The Broncos did give up some big plays including a 48 yard touchdown run by Adrian Peterson in the 4th quarter on a 4th and 1 to make the score 20-17. But, when they needed to make the play to win the game, they got the job done once again. This defense has been the story of this early Broncos season.
2) The running game finally got a jolt and it came from Ronnie Hillman. Hillman scored on an electric 72 yard touchdown run on a toss sweep in the 2nd quarter to make it 10-0 Broncos. Hillman just has a different gear, and that is what the Broncos running game needs right now. He finished with 103 yards on only 11 carries. C.J. Anderson was disappointing once again and he only finished with 43 yards on 11 carries. There were some holes open there in this game, and Anderson just didn't hit the hole with enough speed and couldn't break a tackle. It is worth watching, but if I'm Gary Kubiak, then I am sticking with Hillman as much as possible.
3) Now to Peyton Manning. I thought Manning was mostly good in this game-except for a few throws. His two interceptions were bad throws and he got fooled on the coverage on the first pick. Both set up scores by Minnesota and kept them in the game. He only attempted 27 passes because the Broncos didn't have the ball enough. They only had 26 minutes of possession time and they only ran 53 plays. It reminded me of the Week 2 win at home last year against Kansas City. I still think that his day was positive. He made a great play to hit Owen Daniels for a touchdown to make it 20-10 late in the third quarter. I love how he just throws up jump balls to Demaryius Thomas and DT just boxes out the defender and grabs it like a rebound. Thomas had another big day with 9 receptions for 93 yards. Also, once again with the game tied at 20, he drove his team down the field with some big throws and got the Broncos the score they needed to take the 23-20 lead late when he had to do it. Don't give up on Manning. Stand behind 18.
4) The offensive line is still up and down. Give them credit for improving a little in the run game, and give credit to Michael Schofield, who started his first game of his career with LT Ty Sambraillo out with a shoulder injury. They still gave up too many free runners at Manning, and they are still a work in progress, but they showed some signs of life.
5) This was a quality win over a good opponent. The Broncos looked like they were going to cruise up 13-0 in second quarter, but the Vikings got back into the game. The Broncos had to fight and pull it out in the end. This was a good game to build on. They are showing mental toughness late in these games, and hopefully this will make them battle tested as the year goes on. This is a different approach because in the first three years with Peyton Manning this was the type of game that Denver just dominates and blows out the Vikings in the fashion of 41-20 or 38-17. It is not like that this year with this team, and I'm okay with that. I don't mind it at all, as long as they are on the winning end.
6) Tricky game next week at Oakland. The Raiders are 2-2, but they looked much improved from the last two years. It is a rivalry game, and you know the Raiders will be looking forward to try and take down the Broncos. Denver has won four in a row in Oakland, and the last two games haven't even been close. I would expect a tougher game this time around. I really hope they stick it to Jack Del Rio. He was the biggest disappointment the last three years as the defensive coordinator, and I didn't like how he was auditioning for the Raiders job while he was preparing Denver for the playoffs. I felt like he had one foot out the door before the Colts game, and it showed. Let's stick it to Del Rio this week.
1) Another game another stellar performance by the Broncos defense. Forget the nickname "The Orange Crush." This Broncos defense is more like the "Orange Swarm." That is what the Broncos do: They swarm and attack. Demarcus Ware was unstoppable and the defense totaled 7 sacks. None bigger was the sack by T.J. Ward and the forced fumble that was recovered by Von Miller to seal the game late. The Broncos did give up some big plays including a 48 yard touchdown run by Adrian Peterson in the 4th quarter on a 4th and 1 to make the score 20-17. But, when they needed to make the play to win the game, they got the job done once again. This defense has been the story of this early Broncos season.
2) The running game finally got a jolt and it came from Ronnie Hillman. Hillman scored on an electric 72 yard touchdown run on a toss sweep in the 2nd quarter to make it 10-0 Broncos. Hillman just has a different gear, and that is what the Broncos running game needs right now. He finished with 103 yards on only 11 carries. C.J. Anderson was disappointing once again and he only finished with 43 yards on 11 carries. There were some holes open there in this game, and Anderson just didn't hit the hole with enough speed and couldn't break a tackle. It is worth watching, but if I'm Gary Kubiak, then I am sticking with Hillman as much as possible.
3) Now to Peyton Manning. I thought Manning was mostly good in this game-except for a few throws. His two interceptions were bad throws and he got fooled on the coverage on the first pick. Both set up scores by Minnesota and kept them in the game. He only attempted 27 passes because the Broncos didn't have the ball enough. They only had 26 minutes of possession time and they only ran 53 plays. It reminded me of the Week 2 win at home last year against Kansas City. I still think that his day was positive. He made a great play to hit Owen Daniels for a touchdown to make it 20-10 late in the third quarter. I love how he just throws up jump balls to Demaryius Thomas and DT just boxes out the defender and grabs it like a rebound. Thomas had another big day with 9 receptions for 93 yards. Also, once again with the game tied at 20, he drove his team down the field with some big throws and got the Broncos the score they needed to take the 23-20 lead late when he had to do it. Don't give up on Manning. Stand behind 18.
4) The offensive line is still up and down. Give them credit for improving a little in the run game, and give credit to Michael Schofield, who started his first game of his career with LT Ty Sambraillo out with a shoulder injury. They still gave up too many free runners at Manning, and they are still a work in progress, but they showed some signs of life.
5) This was a quality win over a good opponent. The Broncos looked like they were going to cruise up 13-0 in second quarter, but the Vikings got back into the game. The Broncos had to fight and pull it out in the end. This was a good game to build on. They are showing mental toughness late in these games, and hopefully this will make them battle tested as the year goes on. This is a different approach because in the first three years with Peyton Manning this was the type of game that Denver just dominates and blows out the Vikings in the fashion of 41-20 or 38-17. It is not like that this year with this team, and I'm okay with that. I don't mind it at all, as long as they are on the winning end.
6) Tricky game next week at Oakland. The Raiders are 2-2, but they looked much improved from the last two years. It is a rivalry game, and you know the Raiders will be looking forward to try and take down the Broncos. Denver has won four in a row in Oakland, and the last two games haven't even been close. I would expect a tougher game this time around. I really hope they stick it to Jack Del Rio. He was the biggest disappointment the last three years as the defensive coordinator, and I didn't like how he was auditioning for the Raiders job while he was preparing Denver for the playoffs. I felt like he had one foot out the door before the Colts game, and it showed. Let's stick it to Del Rio this week.
Friday, October 2, 2015
Broncos-VIkings and Week 4 Picks!
By the time Week 4 is over, then 25% of the NFL season will be over. What do we know about the Broncos at this point? Let's take a look before we dive into the Week 4 picks.
Offensively, the Broncos are a work in progress. Their offensive line is not where it needs to be yet. Now, they are dealing with another injury as Ty Sambraillo is probably out this week with a shoulder injury. Their running game is non-existent. We know they have two top weapons at receiver in Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. Peyton Manning looked like the vintage Peyton Manning last week in the win over the Lions. Manning will continue to get more comfortable each week, and by the end of the season this offense will be more consistent than it is now.
Defensively, they are just awesome. The pass rush is insane, and it isn't just Demarcus Ware and Von Miller. Both of those guys have been great, but guys like Malik Jackson and even Shaq Barrett have provided a rush as well. Brandon Marshall is playing like an All-Pro at LB. Chris Harris, Aqib Talib, and Bradley Roby have been spectacular in the secondary. Wade Phillips' scheme has really worked well so far.
The Broncos were fortunate to win Week 1 and they should have lost in KC in Week 2, but they were 2-0 at the end of the day. They were the better team in Detroit and deserved the win. At 3-0, they return home this week to take on the Vikings. This should be a week that they use the home crowd to their advantage, swarm the Vikings offense and Teddy Bridgewater, and put enough points on the board to win the game handily.
DENVER (-5) over Minnesota
Final Score: Broncos-23 Vikings-16
Now, here are the rest of the picks for Week 4....
Last Week's Record: 7-9
Overall Record: 20-28
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)
MIAMI (+2) over New York Jets (In London): I'm giving the 1-2 Dolphins a chance to redeem themselves this week in London against their division rival the Jets. If they lose this game, then they are done in my eyes.
Jacksonville (+7) over Indy: The Colts clawed their back to 1-2 after wild win in Tennessee last week. Now, they come home and get the 1-2 Jaguars, but they will be without Andrew Luck, who is a last minute scratch. You have to take the Jags at that point.
ATLANTA (-6) over Houston: I like what I have seen out of the Falcons and Dan Quinn so far this year. They are 3-0 and come off a huge comeback win over the Cowboys in Dallas. Now, the Texans come to town, and this could be a close game, and it wouldn't shock me to see the Texans pull off the upset, but I think the Falcons will be a little too much for them this week.
TAMPA BAY (+3) over Carolina: The Panthers come in 3-0, but they are due for a down week. I think this will be one of the upsets of the week with Jameis Winston and the Bucs outdueling Cam Newton and the Panthers.
New York Giants (+5.5) over BUFFALO: This is one of the most interesting 1 o'clock games on Sunday. It is a really tough game for me to figure out, but I like Rex Ryan's defense to take down Eli Manning and the Giants offense, but I see it being closer than the spread indicates.
Oakland (-3) over CHICAGO: How bad has gotten for the Bears? They punted on all 11 possessions last week in Seattle. Jimmy Clausen is still starting for the injured Jay Cutler. They return home to take on the Raiders. The Bears are banged up and in bad shape right now, so I have to take the 2-1 Raiders who have actually looked good the last two weeks.
WASHINGTON (+3) over Philly: Are you buying the Eagles yet? I'm not because the Jets simply screwed that game up last week, and I think Philly has a long way to go before I trust them consistently. The Skins are 1-2, but they had 10 days off after their TNF loss to the Giants to get ready for this one.
CINCY (-3) over Kansas City: Simply put: The Bengals are the second best team in the AFC right now behind only the Patriots. The Chiefs come in at 1-2, and it is starting to look like the combination of Alex Smith and Andy Reid might not be the best 1-2 punch in the NFL at this point.
SAN DIEGO (-7) over Cleveland: The Chargers return home after two losses on the road to Cincy and Minnesota. At 1-2, I can't see them blowing a home game to Cleveland this week. The Browns haven't been awful and are sitting at 1-2, but I don't give them much of a chance this week.
Green Bay (-8) over SAN FRANCISCO: The Packers should get a good look around Levis Stadium in Santa Clara on Sunday because they will probably be back there in February for Super Bowl 50.
St. Louis (+7) over ARIZONA: Every year, I am always dead wrong about a team in the preseason. This year the Cards are making me look really bad. At 3-0, they have looked great and they look like one of the best team in the entire NFL. Now, the Rams come to town at 1-2. How many times have you been really interested in the Cardinals and the Rams? This is a very good game on Sunday late.
Dallas (+4) over New Orleans: Luke McCown vs. Brandon Weeden on NBC Sunday Night Football. It is not exactly Drew Brees going up against Tony Romo, but with both star QBs out with injuries, this is what we have. I might be better off watching the season premiere of "Homeland" on Sunday night.
SEATTLE (-7) over Detroit: Seattle got back on track last week with a dominating shutout of the Bears at home. Now, they get the limping 0-3 Lions coming to Seattle on Monday Night Football. It is safe to say that I feel confident the Seahawks will get to 2-2 after this week.
Offensively, the Broncos are a work in progress. Their offensive line is not where it needs to be yet. Now, they are dealing with another injury as Ty Sambraillo is probably out this week with a shoulder injury. Their running game is non-existent. We know they have two top weapons at receiver in Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. Peyton Manning looked like the vintage Peyton Manning last week in the win over the Lions. Manning will continue to get more comfortable each week, and by the end of the season this offense will be more consistent than it is now.
Defensively, they are just awesome. The pass rush is insane, and it isn't just Demarcus Ware and Von Miller. Both of those guys have been great, but guys like Malik Jackson and even Shaq Barrett have provided a rush as well. Brandon Marshall is playing like an All-Pro at LB. Chris Harris, Aqib Talib, and Bradley Roby have been spectacular in the secondary. Wade Phillips' scheme has really worked well so far.
The Broncos were fortunate to win Week 1 and they should have lost in KC in Week 2, but they were 2-0 at the end of the day. They were the better team in Detroit and deserved the win. At 3-0, they return home this week to take on the Vikings. This should be a week that they use the home crowd to their advantage, swarm the Vikings offense and Teddy Bridgewater, and put enough points on the board to win the game handily.
DENVER (-5) over Minnesota
Final Score: Broncos-23 Vikings-16
Now, here are the rest of the picks for Week 4....
Last Week's Record: 7-9
Overall Record: 20-28
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)
MIAMI (+2) over New York Jets (In London): I'm giving the 1-2 Dolphins a chance to redeem themselves this week in London against their division rival the Jets. If they lose this game, then they are done in my eyes.
Jacksonville (+7) over Indy: The Colts clawed their back to 1-2 after wild win in Tennessee last week. Now, they come home and get the 1-2 Jaguars, but they will be without Andrew Luck, who is a last minute scratch. You have to take the Jags at that point.
ATLANTA (-6) over Houston: I like what I have seen out of the Falcons and Dan Quinn so far this year. They are 3-0 and come off a huge comeback win over the Cowboys in Dallas. Now, the Texans come to town, and this could be a close game, and it wouldn't shock me to see the Texans pull off the upset, but I think the Falcons will be a little too much for them this week.
TAMPA BAY (+3) over Carolina: The Panthers come in 3-0, but they are due for a down week. I think this will be one of the upsets of the week with Jameis Winston and the Bucs outdueling Cam Newton and the Panthers.
New York Giants (+5.5) over BUFFALO: This is one of the most interesting 1 o'clock games on Sunday. It is a really tough game for me to figure out, but I like Rex Ryan's defense to take down Eli Manning and the Giants offense, but I see it being closer than the spread indicates.
Oakland (-3) over CHICAGO: How bad has gotten for the Bears? They punted on all 11 possessions last week in Seattle. Jimmy Clausen is still starting for the injured Jay Cutler. They return home to take on the Raiders. The Bears are banged up and in bad shape right now, so I have to take the 2-1 Raiders who have actually looked good the last two weeks.
WASHINGTON (+3) over Philly: Are you buying the Eagles yet? I'm not because the Jets simply screwed that game up last week, and I think Philly has a long way to go before I trust them consistently. The Skins are 1-2, but they had 10 days off after their TNF loss to the Giants to get ready for this one.
CINCY (-3) over Kansas City: Simply put: The Bengals are the second best team in the AFC right now behind only the Patriots. The Chiefs come in at 1-2, and it is starting to look like the combination of Alex Smith and Andy Reid might not be the best 1-2 punch in the NFL at this point.
SAN DIEGO (-7) over Cleveland: The Chargers return home after two losses on the road to Cincy and Minnesota. At 1-2, I can't see them blowing a home game to Cleveland this week. The Browns haven't been awful and are sitting at 1-2, but I don't give them much of a chance this week.
Green Bay (-8) over SAN FRANCISCO: The Packers should get a good look around Levis Stadium in Santa Clara on Sunday because they will probably be back there in February for Super Bowl 50.
St. Louis (+7) over ARIZONA: Every year, I am always dead wrong about a team in the preseason. This year the Cards are making me look really bad. At 3-0, they have looked great and they look like one of the best team in the entire NFL. Now, the Rams come to town at 1-2. How many times have you been really interested in the Cardinals and the Rams? This is a very good game on Sunday late.
Dallas (+4) over New Orleans: Luke McCown vs. Brandon Weeden on NBC Sunday Night Football. It is not exactly Drew Brees going up against Tony Romo, but with both star QBs out with injuries, this is what we have. I might be better off watching the season premiere of "Homeland" on Sunday night.
SEATTLE (-7) over Detroit: Seattle got back on track last week with a dominating shutout of the Bears at home. Now, they get the limping 0-3 Lions coming to Seattle on Monday Night Football. It is safe to say that I feel confident the Seahawks will get to 2-2 after this week.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)