Part 2 of the my 2014 predictions now features the AFC. I also included my Super Bowl pick at the end. Here we go with the AFC...
AFC East
1) New England Patriots
What I Like: It is easy to pick the Patriots to win the AFC East every year, and they do it every single year, but there is a lot to like about this year's version of the Patriots. Most notably it starts with the additions of CBs Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner. The biggest thing that killed the Pats' Super Bowl chances the last two years was lack of talent and depth in the secondary. To quell that, they signed Revis and Browner. Those two key moves could actually tilt the balance of power in the AFC back to the Pats. Throw in the combination of Tom Brady and Bill Belichick, a weak division, Rob Gronkowski coming back from injury, and a creampuff schedule to start the year (at Miami, at Minnesota, Oakland, at KC, Cincy, at Buffalo, Jets, and Chicago) and the Pats look like the real deal once again. There is a really good chance they are 7-1 to start the year, and they get Denver coming to Foxborough the next week. Looks like another AFC East crown and another run at another Super Bowl.
What I Don't Like: Maybe the Pats are hitting a wall here late in the Brady-Belichick run. Brady played well last year, but for the first time in a long time he looked mortal. Maybe it was the talent around him, but he just didn't seem like the same player. Also, you worry about injuries with guys like Gronk and Vince Wilfork. Their defense seems to break down every year towards the end of the season. The Pats usually don't have a lot of question marks, but I still don't think any of their WRs really scare any other team in the AFC.
Prediction: 12-4 (Winners of the AFC East)
2) NY Jets
What I Like: You start with their defense. Muhammad Wilkerson, Sheldon Richardson, Quinton Coples, David Harris, and DeMario Davis are the key cogs in their front seven. You know Rex Ryan will put together a solid defense. He must have a lot of faith in that group because he didn't seem to upset about losing some of their corners. If Calvin Pryor is a player at safety, then watch out for this defense. On offense, the Jets added talented players. Michael Vick, Chris Johnson, Eric Decker, and rookie TE Jace Amaro have to help the Jets anemic offense from last season. If Geno Smith plays well, then the Jets can make the playoffs. If he struggles, then Vick can probably guide the ship for at least one season and help them make a run at a wild card. I could see the possibility of Smith and Vick somehow combining for 9-10 wins with this team this year. Remember, outside of the Patriots, their division is very suspect. Getting those four games with the Dolphins and Bills are huge for them. If they can survive their first seven games, then they can make the run at the wild card with a backend that features a lot of winnable games (Buffalo, at KC, Pitt, at Buff, Miami, at Minnesota, at Tenn, NE, and at Miami). Somehow and someway I think Rex Ryan finds himself in the postseason with this group.
What I Don't Like: The first thing that jumps out to me is the schedule. Here are the QBs the Jets have to face this season: Tom Brady (twice), Aaron Rodgers, Jay Cutler, Matt Stafford, Philip Rivers, Peyton Manning, and Ben Roethlisberger. That is a rough group of QBs for a defense to deal with. If the Jets don't get the pressure from the front seven that they expect, then their cornerbacks will get cut to shreds. The cornerback position is really shaky for them. Antonio Cromartie is gone to Arizona, Dee Millner will be dealing with a high ankle sprain to start the year, and Dimitri Patterson got cut for going AWOL in the preseason. Also, how much can you trust Geno Smith? He could completely fall apart this year, and no one would be surprised. Anyone who watched Eric Decker in Denver last year knows that he is a solid receiver, but in no way is he a #1 guy. How much does Chris Johnson have in his legs? It seems like the Jets have a lot more questions than answers going into the season.
Prediction: 9-7 (2nd place and a Wild Card Berth)
3) Miami Dolphins
What I Like: The Fish have enough talent to contend for the division title. Ryan Tannehill has made strides, and you can make the case that he could breakout this year. With Mike Wallace, Brian Hartline, and a retooled offensive line with the addition on Branden Albert, the Dolphins certainly have some key parts in place to be a good offensive team. Defensively, the Dolphins are solid too. Guys like Cameron Wake, Randy Starks, Dannell Ellerbe, Koa Misi, Phillip Wheeler, and Brent Grimes are all impact players. Maybe this is the year that the Dolphins finally put it all together and make the playoffs. Their first four games are not bad (NE, at Buffalo, KC, at Oakland) and they finish with three out of their four home games at home (Balt, Minnesota, and Jets). I could definitely see a scenario where the the Dolphins finish 10-6 and in the playoffs for the first time since 2008.
What I Don't Like: It seems like the Dolphins are snakebite. From the whole Richie Incognito bullying scandal last year to the fact that this team lost their last two games to Buffalo and the Jets, when all they needed to do was win one of those games and they would have made the playoffs. It seems like a dark cloud seems to hover over the Dolphins every year. The talent is there, but it just never seems to work out. I also don't trust Joe Philbin. He seems like a decent guy, but I don't know if he is a bonafide NFL head coach. I think the Dolphins is the type of team that either goes 10-6 or 6-10. They are one of the most baffling teams in the league this year.
Prediction: 8-8 (3rd Place in the AFC East)
4) Buffalo Bills
What I Like: I like the direction of the Bills under Doug Marrone. The Bills had the balls to trade up and draft Sammy Watkins, who looks like the best young receiving prospect in a while, and they meshed him with C.J. Spiller, Fred Jackson, Robert Woods, Mike Williams, and Scott Chandler. There is some firepower in that offensive group. It seems like the Bills have been looking for a presence at MLB forever and maybe they found that missing piece with the addition of Brandon Spikes. The Bills lost four games by a touchdown or less last year, and they will be competitive every week. If E.J. Manuel plays well and progresses, then this team has a shot to make the playoffs.
What I Don't Like: It is hard to get a read on Manuel. At this point, I would have to bet against him. I don't know what he will be long-term, but I just can't put all my faith in him this year. Manuel's play will decide what kind of season this team has. Put it this way: When you sign Kyle Orton a week before the season starts, your team and your offense is in trouble. A few areas on their defense scare me too. They had a vaunted defensive line a few years ago, and you have to wonder about Marcell Dareus and his off the field issues. Plus, they lost Jairus Byrd from their secondary. How many times do the Bills develop a young player and find him leaving to go somewhere else? Their schedule is tough as well because it includes all those top QBs (Cutler, Rivers, Stafford, Brady twice, Peyton, and Rodgers.) They look like a team that is at least a year away.
Prediction: 5-11 (Last Place in the AFC East)
AFC North
1) Baltimore Ravens
What I Like: It is so hard to repeat as Super Bowl Champions, and when you see a roster get depleted like it did last year for the Ravens, you knew they were going to take a step back. After going 8-8, the Ravens have the look of a team that will rebound and get back to playoffs this year. I love the hiring of Gary Kubiak as the new offensive coordinator for Joe Flacco and that offense. Kubiak had his ups and downs as the Texans head coach, but he is a really good coordinator and a great play caller. He should do wonders for Flacco. Steve Smith seems like a perfect veteran to add to that offense to go along with Torrey Smith, Dennis Pitta, and Jacoby Jones. Defensively, I think they will be solid once again. Haloti Ngata, Terrell Suggs, and Elvis Dumervil are mainstays, but they added two potential impact rookies in the draft with C.J. Mosley and Tim Jernigan. Their schedule is very friendly. Their first two games are at home (Cincy and Pittsburgh on a Thursday night), and they get the fortune of playing the NFC South and AFC South out of division. All that adds up for a rebound year for the Ravens and a trip back to the playoffs.
What I Don't Like: You definitely worry about the Ray Rice suspension for two games. Also, did Joe Flacco just catch lightning in a bottle in 2012 on his way to the Super Bowl? Maybe Flacco isn't a franchise QB and his limitations hurt this team in the long haul. Although their defense is solid, you still have to worry about wear and tear with those veterans like Ngata, Suggs, Dumervil, and even a guy like Ladarius Webb. As stated above, their schedule is friendly, but can they withstand their division. The AFC North is brutal and having to deal with four games against Pitt and Cincy could give the Ravens some hiccups along the way.
Prediction: 10-6 (Winners of the AFC North)
2) Pittsburgh Steelers
What I Like: I still believe in Ben Roethlisberger and Mike Tomlin. In the NFL, the head coach and QB combo can make or break your franchise, and those two guys are still a formidable duo. I have a lot of faith in Big Ben no matter who he is throwing the ball to. Defensively, they got younger last year, and you should see some improvement from a player like Jarvis Jones this year. I love the their addition of Mike Mitchell at safety via free agency, and their top two draft picks, Ryan Shazier and Stephon Tuitt, could start right away. I trust that Dick LeBeau will find a way to make it work on defense. Their schedule isn't that bad either. They have a three game homestand from Weeks 7-9 (Houston, Indy, and Baltimore) and they finish with their last two games at home (KC and Cincy). After back-to-back 8-8 seasons and out of the playoffs both years, I just can't see the Steelers missing the playoffs once again.
What I Don't Like: I don't trust their receiving corps. They are really banking on some young guys like Markus Wheaton and Martavius Bryant to step up and help Antonio Brown. Also, how much does Lance Moore have left now that he is out of New Orleans? You also have to wonder about some of the health of the older veterans left on that defense. Troy Polamalu is banged up every year, and how much can you count on him giving you a complete season. The one thing that is tricky about their schedule is that they have four sets of back-to-back road games. Their first road game is on a short week at Baltimore on a Thursday night. That wasn't a kind deal that was dealt to them by the schedule makers.
Prediction: 10-6 (2nd Place and a Wild Card Berth)
3) Cincinnati Bengals
What I Like: On paper, the Bengals have about as talented of a roster as anyone in the AFC. A.J. Green, Giovani Bernard, Tyler Eifert, Jermaine Gresham, and Andy Dalton on offense. Defensively, Carlos Dunlap, Domata Peko, Geno Atkins, Vontaze Burfict, and Leon Hall area all really good players. This team has the talent to win the division and make a run in the AFC. They added some help to their secondary with the addition of Darqueze Dennard in the draft. Everyone is talking about the Broncos, Pats, and Colts in the AFC, and maybe the Bengals sneak up on everyone and take the AFC in 2014.
What I Don't Like: I don't trust Andy Dalton in a big spot at all. He is the Brian Griese of this generation. He looks great against average to below average defenses, but whenever he plays in big game against a good defense, he folds like a deck of cards. Also, give Marvin Lewis credit for getting this franchise turned around and getting to the playoffs the last three years, but you can't trust Lewis as a big-game coach either. Maybe this is the year, they turn it around, but I have to see it to believe it. Their schedule is a nightmare. They play five really good teams in their first seven games (at Balt, Atlanta, at New England, at Indy and Baltimore again.) They also finish with their last two games against Denver and at Pittsburgh. I think the Bengals take a disappointing step back in 2014.
Prediction: 7-9 (3rd Place in the AFC North)
4) Cleveland Browns
What I Like: I think that Brian Hoyer gives them a fighting chance at QB to start the season. If he struggles or the team is out of it, then they get to turn it over to Johnny Football! Regardless of how bad the Browns are once Manziel gets on the field, then they are a must watch. Maybe Hoyer breaks out and keeps them in contention or maybe Manziel catches fire and pulls a Tebow-esque run and the Browns become the story of 2014. If you are looking for another strength for this team, then look no further than their defense. Phil Taylor anchors the defensive line, and they have two bookend pass rushers in Paul Kruger and Barkevious Mingo. Joe Haden is a top-level cornerback and rookie 1st round pick Justin Gilbert was considered the best cornerback in the draft. New head coach Mike Pettine should be able to dial up some good schemes to maximize that talent.
What I Don't Like: The Johnny Football saga will not die until he plays, and that could fracture the team all year long. How many times will Browns players and coaches have to deal with questions regarding him? Outside of TE Jordan Cameron, who the hell are the Browns QBs going to throw to? How about the duo of Miles Austin and Andrew Hawkins? I didn't think so. The looming Josh Gordon suspension really hampers this offense from getting off the ground. They are in a brutal division where they clearly aren't better than the other three teams, and their schedule is tough. Their first three games (at Pitt, New Orleans, and Baltimore) are really tough, and they close with their last two on the road (at Carolina and at Pitt). They will be competitive, but I think they are the classic "One year away" team.
Prediction: 5-11 (Last Place in the AFC North)
AFC SOUTH
1) Indianapolis Colts
What I Like: Andrew Luck is the man. Plain and simple. It is his time, and the Colts have the players around him on offense to support him. The addition of Hakeem Nicks might be one of the best bargains in the offseason. T.Y. Hilton is a great compliment, Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen are a dangerous tandem at TE, and Reggie Wayne comes back from injury. It is safe to say that the Colts will be able to score a lot of points this year. Their division is a joke, and their is no reason why they can't go 6-0 or 5-1 in their AFC South match ups. They also get the NFC East out of division and they get a break in the schedule with a three-game homestand from Weeks 11-13 with New England, Jacksonville, and Washington all coming to Indy. Put it all together and the Colts can make a serious run at an AFC Title and a Super Bowl appearance in Year 3 of the Luck Era.
What I Don't Like: Losing Robert Mathis for the first four games due to suspension is going to be tough for them. He is their best defensive player and their best pass rusher. Their defense doesn't jump off the page in a few key spots-especially in the secondary. They can't leave it all up to Luck every week to bail them out. Their schedule is tricky in a few areas as well. They open on the road against Peyton Manning and the Broncos on Sunday Night Football, and they have to play at Houston on a Thursday night in Week 6. From there, they have tough back-to-back road games at Pittsburgh and at the Giants in Weeks 8 and 9, and they have to finish the season on the road in their final two games at Dallas and at Tennessee.
Prediction: 11-5 (Winners of the AFC South)
2) Houston Texans
What I Like: Like the Kansas City Chiefs last year, the Texans have the makings of a team that could go from the 1st overall pick in the draft to the playoffs the following season. You have the like the fact that Houston was able to get Bill O'Brien in as head coach. O'Brien did a masterful job at Penn State with all the circumstances surrounding that job. Plus, the Texans had the fortune of drafting Jadeveon Clowney with that first pick in the draft. Anyone who has seen Clowney play knows what kind of disruptive, impact defender he is. Combine him with J.J. Watt and you have a pair of pass rushers that could really help the Texans get back to respectability. A great pass rush can obviously help improve a defense, but it can totally help out the entire team. It changes field position for your special teams, and it makes the offense better in the process. Five of their last eight games are at home, and they finish with two in a row at home to finish the year (Baltimore and Jacksonville.) Also, they get Indy at home on a Thursday night in Week 6.
What I Don't Like: Everything about the Texans offseason was positive except for the fact that they are going into the season with Ryan Fitzpatrick as their starting quarterback. We know what Fitzpatrick is from watching him in Buffalo all those years. He can put up good numbers, handle a high volume of offense, and move the team effectively at times, but in crunchtime and late in games he always seemed to make a bad throw or play and lose the game. I actually think that the Texans would have benefitted from keeping Matt Schaub. Fitzpatrick isn't the guy to get the Texans over the hump and into the playoffs this year. The day after the rosters were cut down to 53 players, the Texans traded a conditional pick to New England for Ryan Mallett. I don't know if you would consider that an upgrade over Fitzpatrick. I'm sure that Mallett will get his chance at some point, but I'm also not sure of what the hell he brings to the table as a starter. Houston will be better and in the playoff hunt in the end, but I think they just fall short this year.
Prediction: 8-8 (2nd Place in the AFC South)
3) Tennessee Titans
What I Like: I love the hiring of Ken Whisenhunt as head coach. Of all the new head coaches, I think Whisenhunt has the best chance at being successful in year one. They made some good moves in the offseason with the signings of Dexter McCluster, Wesley Woodyard, and Shaun Phillips. Also, they got a solid OT in the draft with the pick of Taylor Lewan and adding RB Bishop Sankey in the 2nd round. They weren't that far off last year when they finished 7-9, and if Jake Locker didn't get hurt, they probably would have made the playoffs. If Locker can stay healthy, and with the emergence of WR Kendall Wright, the Titans could surprise this year. Their schedule is friendly down the stretch and they finish with three of their last four games (Giants, Jets, and Indy) at home with a road trip to Jacksonville in the middle. It would not surprise me to see the Titans in the wild card mix come Week 17-especially in that weak AFC South.
What I Don't Like: Locker is the key because he hasn't been able to stay healthy. He shows glimpses of being really good, but hasn't been able to do it for long stretches or for a whole season. If Locker goes down, then the Titans are relying on the immortal Charlie Whitehurst to lead them. Their offensive line hasn't helped them, and they have done everything to try and fix it the last two years. Although Chris Johnson isn't the same player, he still was their most explosive offensive player and they let him go via free agency. Jurrell Casey is their biggest pass rushing threat, and you have to wonder how much their secondary will hold up without a stellar pass rush. Although their schedule is friendly at the end, it is very tricky in two spots. The first one is that they start with three out of their first four games on the road (at KC, at Cincy and at Indy). Then, from Weeks 10-12 they play at Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and at Philly. The Titans will probably end up much like last year-which is on the outside looking in come playoff time.
Prediction: 7-9 (3rd Place in the AFC South)
4) Jacksonville Jaguars
What I Like: Head coach Gus Bradley seems like he has the ability to turn this team around. He wants to build this team like Seattle was built, and added pieces like Chris Clemons, Red Bryant, and Ziggy Hood to their defense. I like that the team also decided to move on from Blaine Gabbert and drafted Blake Bortles in the first round. If gives the franchise hope for the future. Plus, they drafted WRs Marqise Lee and Allen Robinson to give that offense some juice. Their division is not strong, and that could help them get into contention, and their out of division schedule includes the NFC East which is not the same division it was a few years ago. Finally, they revamped their stadium and added the ability for their fans to watch games from a pool on the club level. What a deal!
What I Don't Like: While Bortles gets ready for the future, the team is baking on Chad Henne to hold the fort. Henne got credit for stepping in for Gabbert last year, but Henne only threw for 13 touchdowns and was picked 14 times. We know what Henne is and he isn't the guy to turn this team into a contender this year. It is only a matter of time before Bortles takes over. Also, are you really going to bank on Toby Gerhart being the guy to carry the load at RB? They don't have a lot of talent on offense to surround whoever the QB is. Their first five games are really difficult. At Philly in Week 1, at Washington in Week 2, and then they host Indy, travel to SD, host Pittsburgh, and travel to Tennessee. You can definitely see a scenario in which they are like 1-5 by Week 7.
Prediction: 5-11 (Last Place in the AFC South)
AFC WEST
1) Denver Broncos
What I Like: The Broncos scored over 600 points last year, and their offense under Peyton Manning might be even better this year. They signed Emmanuel Sanders to replace Eric Decker, and they get LT Ryan Clady back after he missed most of last year with a foot injury. They moved Chris Clark to RT and kicked Orlando Franklin inside to LG. On defense, the Broncos added Demarcus Ware, Aqib Talib, and T.J. Ward. Also, they get starters Rahim Moore, Derek Wolfe, and Chris Harris back from injury. Look for Von Miller to be rejuvenated after a nightmare 2013 season in which he was suspended for the first six games, then tore his ACL in Week 16. The Broncos might be more of a complete team than the team that won 13 games and went to the Super Bowl last year. Their schedule is tough, but they have four out of their first six games at home and one of those is on a short week against San Diego on a Thursday night game in Week 8. Oh, I forgot to mention the Broncos have Peyton Manning coming back on the heels of a 55 touchdown performance from last year. Manning looks good and is healthier than he was when he came to Denver in 2012, and he is certainly motivated from last year's Super Bowl debacle. He is easily worth about 10 wins on his own.
What I Don't Like: When you watch the AFC Championship from last year, guys like Knowshon Moreno, Eric Decker, Shaun Phillips, and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie all made big plays to help Denver win and go to the Super Bowl. All those guys are gone along with Champ Bailey. That is a lot of key players leaving from that team, and all of those players were big contributors. I also worry about the fact that Von Miller and Chris Harris, two of our best defensive players, are coming back from ACL injuries suffered late in the year. If they can't recover in time, then that will really hamper their pass rush and secondary. Throw in the Matt Prater suspension for the first four games, and Wes Welker's concussion problems and things could certainly look different in Denver this year. The schedule is very tough. They have to play the following playoff contending teams this year: Indy, at Seattle, at the Jets, San Francisco, San Diego and Kansas City twice, at New England, at St. Louis, and at Cincy. Plus, they get a brutal three game road swing in Weeks 9-11 where they go to New England, St. Louis, and Oakland. You also have to wonder how much of a Super Bowl hangover is looming over this team heading into this year.
Prediction: 11-5 (Winners of the AFC West)
2) San Diego Chargers
What I Like: You have to love how Phillip Rivers responded last year in leading the Chargers to the playoffs and a win over Cincy in the Wild Card round. As long as the Chargers have Rivers, they will be a playoff contender. Their only big addition on offense was RB Donald Brown, so most of the offense will be the same, but Keenan Allen looks like the real deal at WR. Their defense was okay at times, but they added CB Brandon Flowers in free agency to help their secondary. They can score points, they can run the ball, and they have Rivers. The three toughest teams on their schedule, Seattle, Denver, and New England, all come to San Diego at some point in the year.
What I Don't Like: People forget that this team was a missed field goal away from losing their last game of the year to KC and missing the playoffs at 7-9. It was pretty remarkable that they got in considering they were 5-7 with four games to go. I don't think their defense is that much better, and it is pretty much the same unit from last year. I think Mike McCoy did a nice job in his first year as a head coach, but I'm not ready to anoint him as a big-time coach in this league. When you look at their schedule, it is really tough. They open up at Arizona on a Monday Night, then host Seattle. Here are their last five games: at Baltimore, New England, Denver, at San Francisco, and at Kansas City. That is a brutal way to end the season. I think San Diego will be in the mix in the AFC, but I think they stumble at the end and miss the playoffs.
Prediction: 8-8 (2nd Place in the AFC West)
3) Kansas City Chiefs
What I Like: You have to like where the franchise is headed with Andy Reid at the controls. He took a 2-14 team and turn them into a playoff team in one year. They get steady play from QB Alex Smith, RB Jamaal Charles and WR Dwayne Bowe. Their defense is solid with the pass rushing combo of Tamba Hali and Justin Houston, and SS Eric Berry is a top notch player in the secondary. People forget that they started 9-0 last year, and were the NFL's last remaining undefeated team at that point. In the draft, they added Dee Ford in the first round to help with the pass rush, and they drafted speedy playmaker D'Anthony Thomas in the fourth round. There is a chance that the Chiefs take the next step, and you have to like Andy Reid's chances of continuing to build a winning program.
What I Don't Like: The Chiefs didn't make any major moves in free agency to enhance their roster. Instead, they let Branden Albert and Jon Asamoah go, and their offensive line looks shaky at best. On defense, they cut ties with CB Brandon Flowers and we saw what happens to KC's defense if they can't get their pass rushers going. Just look back at the two Denver games and the playoff game against Indy from last year for evidence. Their schedule is really going to challenge them. Three out of their first five games are on the road (Denver, Miami, and SF), and they have to host the Pats in Week 4. After a bye in Week 5, they go to San Diego. There is the potential for a really rough start to their year. They play Seattle in Week 11, and they finish with two tough games (at Pitt and SD). It looks like the Chiefs will take a step back in 2014.
Prediction: 7-9 (3rd Place in the AFC West)
4) Oakland Raiders
What I Like: The Raiders had so much cap space that they had to sign veterans in the offseason. As a result, you have a roster that added: Matt Schaub, Maurice Jones-Drew, Donald Penn, Austin Howard, James Jones, Justin Tuck, LaMarr Woodley, Tarell Brown, and Carlos Rogers. If you hit on half of those moves, then that is very successful. You can't say that the Raiders didn't get better this offseason. They also added Khalil Mack in the first round of the draft, and Mack was considered one of the top players in the draft this year. The Raiders could be more competitive and might even surprise some people early on.
What I Don't Like: First, they are in a tough division and play the NFC West this year. I'll get to their schedule in a minute, but that is one strike against them. Also, how much do Schaub and MJD have in the tank? Schaub was really bad last year, and Jones-Drew hasn't been healthy the last two years. Schaub might not even start the year, and the Raiders might turn it over to rookie Derek Carr for Week 1. Also, how good is James Jones when Aaron Rodgers isn't throwing him the ball? Dennis Allen looks like he might be overmatched as a NFL head coach, and he could be the first coach fired if the team starts slow. We have seen this before with the Raiders and free agent signings, and there are plenty of times where they sign big-name free agents, and those guys flop badly once they start playing for the Raiders. Their schedule doesn't do them any favors. They have to make two East Coast trips in the first three weeks to the Jets and to New England. Also, in Weeks 9-11 they have to go to Seattle, host Denver, and travel to San Diego. Their last four games include San Francisco, at KC, and at Denver. The Raiders could be on track for another dismal season in 2014.
Prediction: 4-12 (Last Place in the AFC West)
Quick Recap:
AFC East
1) New England (12-4)
2) NY Jets (9-7)-Wild Card
3) Miami (8-8)
4) Buffalo (5-11)
AFC North
1) Baltimore (10-6)
2) Pittsburgh (10-6)-Wild Card
3) Cincinnati (7-9)
4) Cleveland (5-11)
AFC South
1) Indianapolis (11-5)
2) Houston (8-8)
3) Tennessee (7-9)
4) Jacksonville (5-11)
AFC West
1) Denver (11-5)
2) San Diego (8-8)
3) Kansas City (7-9)
4) Oakland (4-12)
AFC Playoff Seeds/Predictions
1) New England
2) Denver
3) Indianapolis
4) Baltimore
5) Pittsburgh
6) NY Jets
Wild Card Round:
3-Indy over 6-NY Jets (Andrew Luck solves Rex Ryan's defense)
4-Baltimore over 5-Pittsburgh (The Ravens outlast the Steelers in a classic playoff slugfest)
Divisional Round:
4-Baltimore over 1-New England (Ravens shock the Pats in Foxborough for the second time in three years in the playoffs)
3-Indy over 2-Denver (Luck outduels Manning in a shootout to upset the Broncos in Denver)
AFC Championship Game
3-Indy over 4-Baltimore (The Colts advance to their first Super Bowl since 2009)
Super Bowl XLIX
Green Bay over Indy (The Packers win their fifth Super Bowl in a classic over Luck and the Colts)
Sunday, August 31, 2014
2014 NFL Predictions-Part 1: The NFC
It is that time of the year again as we look forward to the start of the 2014 season. As always, I have taken my time to analyze and break down all 32 teams and make my predictions for the upcoming year. Before I get to my predictions, I want to revisit some of the rules and theories that go into making these predictions. First, the rule of thumb is that six playoff teams from last year will make it back and six teams won't make it back to the playoffs this year. Naturally, I factored that in this year when I made my picks. Secondly, look for at least one team that lost 10 or more games last year to rise up and make the playoffs this year. Third, at least one team that won at least 12 games last year will not make the playoffs again this year. Lastly, I look for some out of the box predictions. I don't want to just go with the chalk picks. I want to be different. Some years it works out and some years-like last year's pick of the Texans going to the Super Bowl- it doesn't work out. That is all part of the fun. I'll start with the NFC. Enjoy!
NFC East
1) New York Giants
What I Like: I swear to God I don't have a special preference to the Giants, but I always seem to pick them to win the NFC East, and most of the time I pick them and I am dead wrong. I guess I won't doubt Tom Coughlin and Eli Manning after they bested Bill Belichick and Tom Brady in two Super Bowls in a five year span. The thing about the Giants is that they know how bad last year was from Eli all the way down to the defense. It was a horrible 7-9 campaign, and I just can't see them falling flat once again. They have missed the playoffs in four of the last five seasons, and I don't think it will happen again. Why? I think it comes down to Eli Manning have a bounce back season, a rebuilt receiving corps and offensive line, and a defense that added Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Walter Thurmond to their secondary and the reemergence of Jason Pierre-Paul. Their schedule is pretty friendly with an opening slate of at Detroit, home to Arizona, and home to Houston and a backend that includes this final six: vs. Dallas, at Jacksonville, at Tennessee, vs. Washington, at St. Louis and home vs. Philly. That's not a brutal stretch to start or finish the season. Look for the G-Men to bounce back and make the playoffs in the weak NFC East.
What I Don't Like: Don't get me wrong this team does have flaws. Is Eli on the downside of his career? What if he just is average the rest of his career-especially in a new offense and with a new coordinator? Losing a leader like Justin Tuck on defense will be certainly be a factor, and it seems like every year Giants fans are complaining about their front seven during the season, and if Jon Beason doesn't pan out in the middle, then the Giants could be screwed again. Guard Geoff Schwartz injured his foot in preseason, and his status is up in the air for the start of the regular season, and 1st round pick Odell Beckham has barely even practiced in the preseason due to a nagging leg injury. They have a five-game stretch in their schedule that will be very tough. From Week 6 to Week 11 they have to play at Philly, at Dallas, BYE, vs. Indy, at Seattle, and vs. San Francisco. Getting the Seahawks and Niners back-to-back is really brutal. They have to be at least 4-1 or at worst 3-2 heading into that stretch. If they aren't, then they could be in big trouble.
Prediction: 9-7 (Winners of the NFC East)
2) Philadelphia Eagles
What I Like: Chip Kelly might be a genius after all. He took a mediocre team and won the NFC East in his first season with Nick Foles looking like Johnny Unitas. Maybe-just maybe-Kelly is the real deal, and the next great NFL head coach. Foles played some of the best football outside of Peyton Manning at the QB position at times last year. If Foles can do that again this year, then the Eagles win the division going away. You have to love the addition of Darren Sproles to this offense, and the combination of Sproles and LeSean McCoy could be very dangerous. On paper they are the best team in the division. Perhaps the Eagles are on the cusp of dominating the NFC East just like they did in the early 2000s under Andy Reid.
What I Don't Like: Every year in the offseason the other coaches around the league go back and break down film of another coach and how that coach had success the prior year. Everyone is going to do their homework to solve Chip Kelly and his schemes. If you give NFL coaches an offseason to prepare, then they will find a way to figure an opponent out. Look for the same to happen to Kelly and the Eagles offense this year. Also, can we expect the same production out of Foles this year? If Foles falters, then the Eagles are toast. I'm not ready to jump on the Foles bandwagon just yet. Plus, their schedule is very tricky. They have three brutal road games out of their division: at Indy in Week 2, at Green Bay in Week 11, and at SF in Week 4. They also have to play Seattle in Week 14, and close the season with back-to-back road games at Washington and at the Giants. The road to the playoffs will be much harder for them this year, and look for them to fall just short.
Prediction: 8-8 (2nd Place in the NFC East)
3) Washington Redskins
What I Like: This year can't be as worse as last year's 3-13 nightmare. New head coach Jay Gruden will bring at least a short term energy to the franchise as he tries to rebuild the team. As far as RG III goes, think about this: Two years ago he was one of the stars of the entire NFL. He was one of the futuristic QBs that was going to be one of the faces of the NFL for the next 10 years. Now, all you hear is that he is never going to be healthy, can't play the game he wants, and he can't read a NFL defense. I find it hard to believe that he already reached his potential and the rest of his career is going downhill. Watch out for RG III this year because I have a feeling he is going to play really well and revitalize his image and his career in 2014. Can't you just see ridiculous highlights every week of RG III throwing bombs to Desean Jackson? They could be this year's ultimate sleeper team.
What I Don't Like: I think Jay Gruden did a nice job in Cincy with that Bengals offense, but did he really do enough to earn a head coaching job-especially with all the scrutiny that comes with the Redskins job? I'm not totally sold on Jay Gruden as a head coach in this league. Go back and watch the Bengals in the playoffs the last two years. As far as RG III goes, you don't wonder about his ability, but you really have to be concerned about his attitude and character after last season. Maybe he can't handle adversity at this level. Maybe he has a little Vince Young about him, and he folds mentally when things go wrong. Last year's debacle may have exposed him as a guy that really can't handle the pressure of being the face of a franchise. Their schedule isn't doing them any favors either. Their non-division schedule includes games against Seattle, at Arizona, at San Francisco, and at Indy. I think they will be better than last year, but they will fall short of the playoffs in the end.
Prediction: 8-8 (3rd Place in the NFC East)
4) Dallas Cowboys
What I Like: If he is healthy and on his game, then Tony Romo gives you a chance to win every week. Romo, Jason Witten, Dez Bryant, and DeMarco Murray are all viable weapons and their offense could be very dangerous. I like that they added Zack Martin in the draft to upgrade their offensive line. Their schedule could really help them in the beginning of the season. Six out of their first nine games are at home. They get SF and New Orleans at home in that span and one of their toughest non-division games is against Indy and that is at home in Week 16. They lost so many heartbreakers last year, that if they just won one of them, then they would have won the division by a few games. If they get off to a good start and Romo is healthy, then the Cowboys could be in the mix for the division at the end.
What I Don't Like: It is the Cowboys and we know what to expect at this point: A lot of sizzle but no substance. I am worried about Romo being healthy and holding up after back surgery. It doesn't sound like it is the easiest thing to come back from and you have to wonder about Romo holding up. Dez Bryant is always a distraction and they already lost Sean Lee for the season to a torn ACL in non-contact OTAs. Their defense is a mess, and Jason Garrett scares the hell out of you as an in-game strategist in these critical games. He never delivers in these big spots over the past few years. Their schedule is also very tough at the end because they finish with five road games out of their last seven games. Those games include trips to the Giants, Chicago, and Philly. I think the Cowboys will implode this year, and force Jerry Jones to blow it all up and start fresh in 2015.
Prediction: 5-11 (Last in the NFC East)
NFC North
1) Green Bay Packers
What I Like: It is all about Aaron Rodgers. Last year, Rodgers missed seven games and Packers went 2-4-1 in his absence, yet they still made the playoffs after Rodgers returned and shocked the Bears in Week 17 on a 4th down touchdown pass in the closing moments. Rodgers is a top-five player in the league, and if he is your quarterback, then you have a chance to win the Super Bowl every year. They got one of the best safeties to fall to them in the draft with the addition of Ha Ha Clinton-Dix. They also added Julius Peppers to their defense, and you can definitely see a bounce back year for him. Schedule wise they are in good shape. They open on the road at Seattle on the Thursday night opener, but after that they have the following slate: Jets, at Detroit, at Chicago, Minnesota, at Miami, and Carolina. That isn't bad at all and they could very easily be 6-1 right out of the gate. Plus, they get Philly and New England at home in Lambeau later on in the year. The Packers could certainly be there challenging for the NFC bid to go to the Super Bowl.
What I Don't Like: It starts with their defense. Clay Matthews can't stay healthy, their secondary does have some question marks, and their defensive line isn't the greatest going into the season. If their defense falters again, you can't put it all on Aaron Rodgers shoulders. Their division is very tough and games against the Bears and Lions are not going to be easy. You also have to think about their mental state after failing to get past the 49ers the last two years in the playoffs. If they have to face either Seattle or San Francisco in the playoffs again, you have to wonder if they will be able to get by them.
Prediction: 11-5 (Winners of the NFC North)
2) Chicago Bears
What I Like: Offensively, the Bears are nasty. Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffrey, Matt Forte, and Martellus Bennett would be fine for any fantasy owner in any fantasy league. They will score points again in 2014. They addressed their needs on defense by adding Jared Allen and Lamarr Houston in free agency and drafting three defensive players in the first three rounds of the NFL Draft. Their defense should definitely take a step forward this year. Also, they get a break in the schedule when they have a three-game homestand in December when they host Dallas, New Orleans, and Detroit from Weeks 14-16. I also have to admit that I am a fan of Marc Trestman and his demeanor. If he can find a way to fix the defense, the Bears will be playoff bound.
What I Don't Like: How many playoff games has Jay Cutler won as a NFL quarterback? The answer is 1, and that was four years ago. Cutler has been a starter since 2006 and it is 2014 and he has won only a single playoff game in his career. How many playoff games has Brandon Marshall played in his 8 year career? The answer is 0. Those two guys don't exactly give me the confidence that they will all of sudden go off and make a run at the Super Bowl. You have to worry about their defense as well. If their offseason moves don't pan out, then the Bears are on the outside of the playoff mix once again. Their out of division schedule is very tough. They have to go to San Francisco, the Jets, Carolina, Atlanta, and the Patriots all in their first eight games, with a home game against Green Bay sandwiched in there. That is a very tough way to open up the first half of their season.
Prediction: 9-7 (2nd Place in the NFC North and a Wild Card Berth)
3) Detroit Lions
What I Like: The Lions were so close to winning the division last year, it is amazing that they didn't. It does give you hope that they are on the cusp of breaking through this year. They added Eric Ebron in the draft and Golden Tate in free agency to an offense that features Matt Stafford, Reggie Bush, Brandon Pettigrew, and of course Calvin Johnson. Their style of play on offense is designed to put up points, and they can match touchdowns with the Bears and Packers in the NFC North. They only have two really tough games out of their division: at home vs. the Saints in Week 7 and at New England in Week 12. Other games on their schedule include winnable games like at the Jets, Buffalo, Miami, at Arizona, Tampa Bay and Minnesota twice. If they go 3-3 in their division, they can definitely get to 9 or 10 wins.
What I Don't Like: Why in the world did they hire Jim Caldwell as their head coach? Did they watch Caldwell at all when he was the head coach in Indy? Go back and watch the Super Bowl loss Indy had to the Saints and the playoff loss to the Jets the following year. Caldwell was absolutely lost in those games and he had Peyton Manning as his quarterback. Last year, Caldwell did nothing to help his cause by piloting the Ravens offense into the ground. I just think that Caldwell is a bad fit for this team. Also, what happened to that vaunted Lions defensive front? It seems like Ndamukong Suh's career has taken a turn for the worse after the repeated incidents of dirty plays that he has put forth the past few years. It seems like he lost his mojo. Their secondary is a weakness and that is not a good thing when you are in a division with Aaron Rodgers and Jay Cutler. Expect a lot of close and exciting games from the Lions in 2014, but also expect a lot of clueless shots of Caldwell on the sidelines as the Lions lose all those close games.
Prediction: 7-9 (3rd Place in the NFC North)
4) Minnesota Vikings
What I Like: The Vikings have two of the most explosive offensive players in the NFC with Adrian Peterson and Cordarrelle Patterson. Those two guys can change a game and score from any point on the field. I really like the hire of Mike Zimmer as their new head coach. You can tell if an assistant coach has the ability to be a head coach and after watching Zimmer on "Hard Knocks" and watching him on the sidelines during his career, you can tell that Zimmer is a real head coach. I think Zimmer will be successful once he builds this team the way he wants, and you know he is going to get all those young guys on defense to play well. Their schedule isn't awful and their two toughest out of division games are against New England in Week 2 and at New Orleans in Week 3, so they get them out of the way early.
What I Don't Like: It starts with the QB position. You can't win big in this league with a starter like Matt Cassel. I'm sorry but I've seen him play enough, and he simply isn't the kind of guy to bring a team to the playoffs. Then, the Vikings go draft Teddy Bridgewater at the end of the first round as hope for the future. It can't be good that Bridgewater went from a surefire top pick in the draft before the season started to a guy who plummeted to the end of the first round. They will turn to Bridgewater at some point in the season and that will be a sign that they are building for next season. Plus, this year the Vikings will play their home games at the University of Minnesota's stadium while they wait for their new stadium to be built. Anytime a team plays their home games at an alternate venue for a few years never seems to pan out. It will provide no homefield advantage outside of the weather, and going from a loud dome to a college campus is a disaster waiting to happen. The Vikes are at least a year away from contending for the playoffs.
Prediction: 6-10 (Last Place in the NFC North)
NFC South
1) New Orleans Saints
What I Like: The Saints finished 11-5 last year, and were valiant in defeat at Seattle in the Divisional Round in the playoffs, and they look like they will pick up where they left off heading into 2014. We all know how great Drew Brees is, and with the Jimmy Graham contract now finalized all the pieces are in place for Brees and that offense to grow this year. You have a feeling that rookie 1st round pick Brandin Cooks will be a perfect fit in the receiving corps to go with Graham and Marques Colston. Defensively, the Saints added S Jairus Byrd and CB Stanley-Jean Baptiste to their secondary to help out Kenny Vaccaro. I love their front seven, and when a defense has the ability to play with a lead and use their dome to their advantage, then watch out. Three of their toughest games this year are on a three game homestand from Weeks 10-12 (SF, Cincy, and Baltimore.) This team seems loaded and ready to make a run at the big two: Seattle and San Francisco.
What I Don't Like: Offensively, their offense is terrific, but they did lose Darren Sproles, Lance Moore, and C Brian De La Puente. I know this sounds a little ridiculous, but they scored over 30 points only six times last year. That is down year for their offense. Perhaps they are running out of steam a little bit. You just hope that their defensive additions pan out. Their schedule is friendly, but they do draw the NFC North and AFC North, and those divisions are two of the toughest in the NFL. Just like Green Bay, you just have to wonder when push comes to shove if they truly believe that they can beat Seattle or San Francisco if they meet up in the playoffs.
Prediction: 11-5 (Winners of the NFC South)
2) Atlanta Falcons
What I Like: Every year a team goes through a season and nothing breaks right for them. That was the story for the Falcons last year. Coming off three straight playoff seasons and a NFC Championship Game appearance, the Falcons crashed landed in 2013. Injuries piled up, close losses early doomed their season, and the Falcons never recovered from a 1-4 start on their way to a disappointing 4-12 finish. The Falcons just have that feeling of a team that is ready to bounce back in a big way in 2014. Matt Ryan is still a top level QB. He isn't in the elite level just yet, but he is just a notch below. If you have Ryan at QB, then you have a legitimate chance to be a playoff team. Plus, he is getting Julio Jones and Roddy White back healthy and ready to roll. Look out for a rejuvenated Steven Jackson to bounce back in 2014 too. They have added some beef to their defense with the additions of Tyson Jackson and Paul Soliai in free agency, and Ra'shede Hageman in the draft. They also shored up their offensive line with the drafting of OT Jake Matthews with the 6th overall pick. They finish with four out of their last six games at home and their toughest road game outside of their division is at Green Bay. Other than that, their schedule is friendly. I think the Falcons will rise up and get back to the playoffs with the help of Matt Ryan and that offense.
What I Don't Like: They did add some beef up front on their defensive line, but if you look at some other spots on their defense you have to get a little worried. Names like Jonathan Massaquoi, Paul Worrilow, Joplo Bartu, and Robert Alford aren't exactly household superstars, and when you are relying on Osi Umeniyora as your top pass rusher heading into the season, that could be a problem. Losing LT Sam Baker to injury in the preseason could be a real blow if Matthews isn't ready to take over his spot. We know that that will be better than what happened in 2013, but how much have they advanced on the Saints? Can they catch them? Are they able to deal with a sneaky tough division? Those are some reasons to worry about the Falcons making the leap back to the top of the division or into the playoffs.
Prediction: 10-6 (2nd Place and a Wild Card Berth)
3) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
What I Like: Lovie Smith isn't the greatest head coach of all time, but he did a pretty good job in Chicago, and I think he will bring some stability back to the franchise. With the selection of Mike Evans in the first round of the draft, the Bucs could have one of the better 1-2 combinations at WR pairing Evans and Vincent Jackson. Doug Martin is coming back from injury, and if they can get Josh McCown to replicate his play in Chicago from last season, then the Bucs could definitely surprise this year. Trading for Logan Mankins was the kind of move that really could help them short term. When you look at their defense, there is a lot of talent there for Lovie to play with. Michael Johnson, Gerald McCoy, Lavonte David, Dashon Goldson, and Alterraun Verner all can play, and it seems like their defense is ready to take off and become a force. They open up with two games at home (Carolina and St. Louis) and close with two at home (Green Bay and New Orleans). I think the Bucs are a year away, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them playing a meaningful game in Week 17 with a playoff berth on the line.
What I Don't Like: I know they end with two at home, but those two games are brutal with Green Bay and New Orleans coming to town. The Bucs better hope that the Saints have already clinched a playoff spot at that point. They also have a brutal three game road swing when they head to Atlanta, Pittsburgh, and New Orleans in Weeks 3 through 5. That is a tough stretch. The biggest question to me is the fact that they are pinning their hopes on offense on Josh McCown. Don't get me wrong because he played great last year in Chicago when Jay Cutler went down, but you have to wonder about putting the franchise on the shoulders of 12-year journeyman QB. I just think that might be too much to ask for McCown to overcome as the main man in Tampa Bay.
Prediction: 7-9 (3rd Place in the NFC South)
4) Carolina Panthers
What I Like: You have to admire how Cam Newton matured last year, and he is quite simply a force with the style that he plays. Ron Rivera also distinguished himself as a revolutionary with his gambling style and going for it on so many 4th down plays. Perhaps Rivera is a coach who just throws shit against the wall and it sticks every time. You also have the feeling that the Panthers are going to be in a lot of games with the way their defense plays. Their style of play is conducive to playing solid defense, controlling the ball with their running game, and letting Cam Newton make a few big plays to win the game in the end. That could work for them and keep them in every single game.
What I Don't Like: The Panthers offseason was a disaster. Jordan Gross retired and they lost Steve Smith, Brandon LaFell, and Ted Ginn to free agency. Those were three of the top four receivers on their team last year. They replaced them with Jerricho Cotchery, Jason Avant, and first round pick Kelvin Benjamin. Not exactly what I would call threatening in the receiving corps. Plus, Cam Newton needed offseason surgery, and he got hurt in the preseason, and you have to wonder how the wear and tear will affect his season. They also lost CB Captain Munnerlyn from their secondary. Throw in the fact that they are in a very tough division, and their out of division games include Pittsburgh, at Baltimore, Chicago, Cincy, at Green Bay, Seattle, and at Philly. That is a tough set of games to handle. It just seems like the Panthers are due for a letdown after last year's surprising 12-4 finish. The Panthers look like that team where everything just goes wrong and they never recover on their way to a disappointing season in 2014.
Prediction: 5-11 (Last Place in the NFC South)
1) Seattle Seahawks
What I Like: No team has won back-to-back Super Bowls since the Pats did it in 2004, and the Seahawks have the best chance to do it since them. Seattle is LOADED. Let me repeat that: Seattle is LOADED. They are the frontrunners to win the Super Bowl again, and they should be. Forget about the schedule. Forget about heading to San Francisco on Thanksgiving Night. Forget about their division. The Seahawks are going to be really good. Russell Wilson will be better, and they get a healthy Percy Harvin back for a full season. We know about their defense, and if you had any questions about them, then just go back and watch the film from the Super Bowl where they absolutely dominated the best offense in the history of the NFL. All the key guys are back and their defense will be just as good as it was last year. Throw in the coaching of Pete Carroll and the fact that they have the best homefield advantage of any team in any professional sport in North America. The only thing that can stop the Seahawks this year is themselves.
What I Don't Like: Pat Riley used to talk about the "Disease of Me" after teams won championships. He worried that championship teams would start worrying about everything else, but what they should be worrying about and that is winning another title. That might be the only thing that could stop Seattle this year. All the hype and publicity that Richard Sherman and company got this offseason could potentially derail their hopes. If you are rooting against them, then this might be the only hope for the Seahawks taking a step back in 2014.
Prediction: 12-4 (Winners of the NFC West)
2) San Francisco 49ers
What I Like: Pound for pound they are one of the top two teams in the entire NFL. They added Stevie Johnson to their receiver group that features Vernon Davis, Anquan Boldin, and Michael Crabtree. Colin Kaepernick should continue to get better and better, and Frank Gore is still a workhorse. Their front seven is still one of the best in football. They are a battle-tested team that has won 36 regular season games, five playoff games, and made three straight NFC Championship Game appearances in the past three seasons. They are also led by one of the best coaches in the NFL in Jim Harbaugh. They finish with four out of their last six games at home, and they get to exact revenge on Seattle with a night game on Thanksgiving at home. On paper, they should be one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl.
What I Don't Like: Here is why the 49ers will miss the playoffs and have a down year in 2014: I don't trust Colin Kapernick. Yes, he is talented and a good player, but I just don't trust him. He might be a franchise defining player down the road, but I think he takes a step back this year. I just don't think you can put everything on his plate and he will deliver every time. Also, I wonder how much has taken a toll on this team the last three years. They lost Navorro Bowman to a gruesome injury in the NFC Championship, and if he doesn't bounce back from the injury right away, then that could be trouble for their defense. Aldon Smith is suspended for the first nine games of the year, and DT Ray McDonald just got busted on a domestic violence issue. The Jim Harbaugh contract extension/relationship with the front office seems to be hanging over this franchise like a dark cloud. That is a lot of outside noise for this team to deal with. They also have question marks in the secondary-especially at cornerback. I would be a little worried about Chris Culliver and Tramaine Brock. This just might be a year where the 49ers just don't get any breaks, lose some close games, and run out of gas at the end. This is one of those "gut feeling" picks, and I think the Niners miss out on the playoffs for the first time under Harbaugh.
Prediction: 8-8 (2nd Place in the NFC West)
3) Arizona Cardinals
What I Like: How can you not love what Bruce Arians did last year as a first year head coach? A 10-6 record in that division was one of the most impressive jobs anyone has done in a long time. They have a top player on offense and defense in Larry Fitzgerald and Patrick Peterson. Their defense is really good upfront and they added Antonio Cromartie to a secondary that includes Peterson and Tyrann Mathieu. They even got over 4,000 yards and 24 touchdowns out of Carson Palmer last year. You know they aren't afraid of Seattle and San Francisco, and they shocked the Seahawks in Seattle last year in Week 16.
What I Don't Like: You are pinning your hopes on Carson Palmer once again. Palmer isn't awful, but to ask him to go out and win 10 games for you in that division is asking a lot. Outside of Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd, who scares you on that offense. In addition, you don't know how Mathieu will respond after tearing up his knee late last season. They are in a division with Seattle, San Francisco and an improving Rams team. Their schedule is nighmarish at times. Their first four games are: San Diego, a trip across the country against the Giants, San Francisco, and at Denver. They have to play at Seattle and at Atlanta back-to-back in Weeks 12 and 13, and they finish with at St. Louis (Thursday Night Game), Seattle, and at San Francisco in their final three games. It just seems like the deck is stacked a little too high for the Cards to repeat their success from last year.
Prediction: 8-8 (3rd Place in the NFC West)
4) St. Louis Rams
What I Like: The Rams were one of the most interesting teams heading into the season. Losing Sam Bradford for the year was a terrible situation; however, they have a lot of aspects of their team going in the right direction: A defense that can get to the quarterback and create turnovers (This is where Chris Long, Robert Quinn, Aaron Donald, James Laurinitis, Alec Ogletree, and Janoris Jenkins fit in), quality Coaching (Jeff Fisher), solid offensive line (Their first round pick Greg Robinson was one of the safest picks in the entire draft), and a few playmakers (Tavon Austin, Jared Cook, Zac Stacy, and rookie RB Tre Mason.) Here are their first three games on their schedule: Minnesota, at Tampa Bay, and Dallas. Their last five games are friendly too: Oakland, at Washington, Arizona, NY Giants, and at Seattle. I know they are in a tough division, but if they can at least go 3-3 in their division, then maybe they have a shot to surprise some people this year. If Shaun Hill can give them anything resembling some quality play, then they will at least be playing meaningful games come December.
What I Don't Like: Losing Sam Bradford to a torn ACL really screwed their shot as being a legitimate playoff contender. I know Bradford had a lot to prove, but when you put all your eggs in one basket, and that gets blown up, it is really hard to recover. I just don't think Hill can do it consistently week in and week out to keep the Rams afloat. Plus, we know how tough it is to be in the same division as Seattle and San Francisco. Their schedule has a really tough stretch when they play at Philly, San Fran, Seattle, at Kansas City, at San Fran, and at Arizona in a six game stretch from Weeks 5-10. That is a very tough set of games. If they get off to a slow start, then their season could go down the tubes. They may be competitive each week, but the loss of Bradford will keep them out of the playoffs.
Prediction: 5-11 (Last Place in the NFC West)
Quick Recap:
NFC East
1) NY Giants (9-7)
2) Philly (8-8)
3) Washington (8-8)
4) Dallas (5-11)
NFC North
1) Green Bay (11-5)
2) Chicago (9-7)-Wild Card
3) Detroit (7-9)
4) Minnesota (6-10)
NFC South
1) New Orleans (11-5)
2) Atlanta (10-6)-Wild Card
3) Tampa Bay (7-9)
4) Carolina (5-11)
NFC West
1) Seattle (12-4)
2) San Francisco (8-8)
3) Arizona (8-8)
4) St. Louis (5-11)
NFC Playoff Seeds/Predictions
1) Seattle
2) Green Bay
3) New Orleans
4) NY Giants
5) Atlanta
6) Chicago
Wild Card Round:
3-New Orleans over 6-Chicago (Brees and the Saints outlast the Bears in a fun Wild Card matchup)
5-Atlanta over 4-Giants (Falcons get revenge from 2011 Wild Card loss to Giants)
Divisional Round:
1-Seattle over 5-Atlanta (Seahawks become first defending Super Bowl Champion to win a playoff game the next year since 2005 Patriots)
2-Green Bay over 3-New Orleans (Rodgers outduels Brees in a classic shootout to advance to NFC Championship)
NFC Championship Game
2-Green Bay over 1-Seattle (The Packers stun the Seahawks in Seattle to advance to the Super Bowl)
NFC East
1) New York Giants
What I Like: I swear to God I don't have a special preference to the Giants, but I always seem to pick them to win the NFC East, and most of the time I pick them and I am dead wrong. I guess I won't doubt Tom Coughlin and Eli Manning after they bested Bill Belichick and Tom Brady in two Super Bowls in a five year span. The thing about the Giants is that they know how bad last year was from Eli all the way down to the defense. It was a horrible 7-9 campaign, and I just can't see them falling flat once again. They have missed the playoffs in four of the last five seasons, and I don't think it will happen again. Why? I think it comes down to Eli Manning have a bounce back season, a rebuilt receiving corps and offensive line, and a defense that added Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Walter Thurmond to their secondary and the reemergence of Jason Pierre-Paul. Their schedule is pretty friendly with an opening slate of at Detroit, home to Arizona, and home to Houston and a backend that includes this final six: vs. Dallas, at Jacksonville, at Tennessee, vs. Washington, at St. Louis and home vs. Philly. That's not a brutal stretch to start or finish the season. Look for the G-Men to bounce back and make the playoffs in the weak NFC East.
What I Don't Like: Don't get me wrong this team does have flaws. Is Eli on the downside of his career? What if he just is average the rest of his career-especially in a new offense and with a new coordinator? Losing a leader like Justin Tuck on defense will be certainly be a factor, and it seems like every year Giants fans are complaining about their front seven during the season, and if Jon Beason doesn't pan out in the middle, then the Giants could be screwed again. Guard Geoff Schwartz injured his foot in preseason, and his status is up in the air for the start of the regular season, and 1st round pick Odell Beckham has barely even practiced in the preseason due to a nagging leg injury. They have a five-game stretch in their schedule that will be very tough. From Week 6 to Week 11 they have to play at Philly, at Dallas, BYE, vs. Indy, at Seattle, and vs. San Francisco. Getting the Seahawks and Niners back-to-back is really brutal. They have to be at least 4-1 or at worst 3-2 heading into that stretch. If they aren't, then they could be in big trouble.
Prediction: 9-7 (Winners of the NFC East)
2) Philadelphia Eagles
What I Like: Chip Kelly might be a genius after all. He took a mediocre team and won the NFC East in his first season with Nick Foles looking like Johnny Unitas. Maybe-just maybe-Kelly is the real deal, and the next great NFL head coach. Foles played some of the best football outside of Peyton Manning at the QB position at times last year. If Foles can do that again this year, then the Eagles win the division going away. You have to love the addition of Darren Sproles to this offense, and the combination of Sproles and LeSean McCoy could be very dangerous. On paper they are the best team in the division. Perhaps the Eagles are on the cusp of dominating the NFC East just like they did in the early 2000s under Andy Reid.
What I Don't Like: Every year in the offseason the other coaches around the league go back and break down film of another coach and how that coach had success the prior year. Everyone is going to do their homework to solve Chip Kelly and his schemes. If you give NFL coaches an offseason to prepare, then they will find a way to figure an opponent out. Look for the same to happen to Kelly and the Eagles offense this year. Also, can we expect the same production out of Foles this year? If Foles falters, then the Eagles are toast. I'm not ready to jump on the Foles bandwagon just yet. Plus, their schedule is very tricky. They have three brutal road games out of their division: at Indy in Week 2, at Green Bay in Week 11, and at SF in Week 4. They also have to play Seattle in Week 14, and close the season with back-to-back road games at Washington and at the Giants. The road to the playoffs will be much harder for them this year, and look for them to fall just short.
Prediction: 8-8 (2nd Place in the NFC East)
3) Washington Redskins
What I Like: This year can't be as worse as last year's 3-13 nightmare. New head coach Jay Gruden will bring at least a short term energy to the franchise as he tries to rebuild the team. As far as RG III goes, think about this: Two years ago he was one of the stars of the entire NFL. He was one of the futuristic QBs that was going to be one of the faces of the NFL for the next 10 years. Now, all you hear is that he is never going to be healthy, can't play the game he wants, and he can't read a NFL defense. I find it hard to believe that he already reached his potential and the rest of his career is going downhill. Watch out for RG III this year because I have a feeling he is going to play really well and revitalize his image and his career in 2014. Can't you just see ridiculous highlights every week of RG III throwing bombs to Desean Jackson? They could be this year's ultimate sleeper team.
What I Don't Like: I think Jay Gruden did a nice job in Cincy with that Bengals offense, but did he really do enough to earn a head coaching job-especially with all the scrutiny that comes with the Redskins job? I'm not totally sold on Jay Gruden as a head coach in this league. Go back and watch the Bengals in the playoffs the last two years. As far as RG III goes, you don't wonder about his ability, but you really have to be concerned about his attitude and character after last season. Maybe he can't handle adversity at this level. Maybe he has a little Vince Young about him, and he folds mentally when things go wrong. Last year's debacle may have exposed him as a guy that really can't handle the pressure of being the face of a franchise. Their schedule isn't doing them any favors either. Their non-division schedule includes games against Seattle, at Arizona, at San Francisco, and at Indy. I think they will be better than last year, but they will fall short of the playoffs in the end.
Prediction: 8-8 (3rd Place in the NFC East)
4) Dallas Cowboys
What I Like: If he is healthy and on his game, then Tony Romo gives you a chance to win every week. Romo, Jason Witten, Dez Bryant, and DeMarco Murray are all viable weapons and their offense could be very dangerous. I like that they added Zack Martin in the draft to upgrade their offensive line. Their schedule could really help them in the beginning of the season. Six out of their first nine games are at home. They get SF and New Orleans at home in that span and one of their toughest non-division games is against Indy and that is at home in Week 16. They lost so many heartbreakers last year, that if they just won one of them, then they would have won the division by a few games. If they get off to a good start and Romo is healthy, then the Cowboys could be in the mix for the division at the end.
What I Don't Like: It is the Cowboys and we know what to expect at this point: A lot of sizzle but no substance. I am worried about Romo being healthy and holding up after back surgery. It doesn't sound like it is the easiest thing to come back from and you have to wonder about Romo holding up. Dez Bryant is always a distraction and they already lost Sean Lee for the season to a torn ACL in non-contact OTAs. Their defense is a mess, and Jason Garrett scares the hell out of you as an in-game strategist in these critical games. He never delivers in these big spots over the past few years. Their schedule is also very tough at the end because they finish with five road games out of their last seven games. Those games include trips to the Giants, Chicago, and Philly. I think the Cowboys will implode this year, and force Jerry Jones to blow it all up and start fresh in 2015.
Prediction: 5-11 (Last in the NFC East)
NFC North
1) Green Bay Packers
What I Like: It is all about Aaron Rodgers. Last year, Rodgers missed seven games and Packers went 2-4-1 in his absence, yet they still made the playoffs after Rodgers returned and shocked the Bears in Week 17 on a 4th down touchdown pass in the closing moments. Rodgers is a top-five player in the league, and if he is your quarterback, then you have a chance to win the Super Bowl every year. They got one of the best safeties to fall to them in the draft with the addition of Ha Ha Clinton-Dix. They also added Julius Peppers to their defense, and you can definitely see a bounce back year for him. Schedule wise they are in good shape. They open on the road at Seattle on the Thursday night opener, but after that they have the following slate: Jets, at Detroit, at Chicago, Minnesota, at Miami, and Carolina. That isn't bad at all and they could very easily be 6-1 right out of the gate. Plus, they get Philly and New England at home in Lambeau later on in the year. The Packers could certainly be there challenging for the NFC bid to go to the Super Bowl.
What I Don't Like: It starts with their defense. Clay Matthews can't stay healthy, their secondary does have some question marks, and their defensive line isn't the greatest going into the season. If their defense falters again, you can't put it all on Aaron Rodgers shoulders. Their division is very tough and games against the Bears and Lions are not going to be easy. You also have to think about their mental state after failing to get past the 49ers the last two years in the playoffs. If they have to face either Seattle or San Francisco in the playoffs again, you have to wonder if they will be able to get by them.
Prediction: 11-5 (Winners of the NFC North)
2) Chicago Bears
What I Like: Offensively, the Bears are nasty. Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffrey, Matt Forte, and Martellus Bennett would be fine for any fantasy owner in any fantasy league. They will score points again in 2014. They addressed their needs on defense by adding Jared Allen and Lamarr Houston in free agency and drafting three defensive players in the first three rounds of the NFL Draft. Their defense should definitely take a step forward this year. Also, they get a break in the schedule when they have a three-game homestand in December when they host Dallas, New Orleans, and Detroit from Weeks 14-16. I also have to admit that I am a fan of Marc Trestman and his demeanor. If he can find a way to fix the defense, the Bears will be playoff bound.
What I Don't Like: How many playoff games has Jay Cutler won as a NFL quarterback? The answer is 1, and that was four years ago. Cutler has been a starter since 2006 and it is 2014 and he has won only a single playoff game in his career. How many playoff games has Brandon Marshall played in his 8 year career? The answer is 0. Those two guys don't exactly give me the confidence that they will all of sudden go off and make a run at the Super Bowl. You have to worry about their defense as well. If their offseason moves don't pan out, then the Bears are on the outside of the playoff mix once again. Their out of division schedule is very tough. They have to go to San Francisco, the Jets, Carolina, Atlanta, and the Patriots all in their first eight games, with a home game against Green Bay sandwiched in there. That is a very tough way to open up the first half of their season.
Prediction: 9-7 (2nd Place in the NFC North and a Wild Card Berth)
3) Detroit Lions
What I Like: The Lions were so close to winning the division last year, it is amazing that they didn't. It does give you hope that they are on the cusp of breaking through this year. They added Eric Ebron in the draft and Golden Tate in free agency to an offense that features Matt Stafford, Reggie Bush, Brandon Pettigrew, and of course Calvin Johnson. Their style of play on offense is designed to put up points, and they can match touchdowns with the Bears and Packers in the NFC North. They only have two really tough games out of their division: at home vs. the Saints in Week 7 and at New England in Week 12. Other games on their schedule include winnable games like at the Jets, Buffalo, Miami, at Arizona, Tampa Bay and Minnesota twice. If they go 3-3 in their division, they can definitely get to 9 or 10 wins.
What I Don't Like: Why in the world did they hire Jim Caldwell as their head coach? Did they watch Caldwell at all when he was the head coach in Indy? Go back and watch the Super Bowl loss Indy had to the Saints and the playoff loss to the Jets the following year. Caldwell was absolutely lost in those games and he had Peyton Manning as his quarterback. Last year, Caldwell did nothing to help his cause by piloting the Ravens offense into the ground. I just think that Caldwell is a bad fit for this team. Also, what happened to that vaunted Lions defensive front? It seems like Ndamukong Suh's career has taken a turn for the worse after the repeated incidents of dirty plays that he has put forth the past few years. It seems like he lost his mojo. Their secondary is a weakness and that is not a good thing when you are in a division with Aaron Rodgers and Jay Cutler. Expect a lot of close and exciting games from the Lions in 2014, but also expect a lot of clueless shots of Caldwell on the sidelines as the Lions lose all those close games.
Prediction: 7-9 (3rd Place in the NFC North)
4) Minnesota Vikings
What I Like: The Vikings have two of the most explosive offensive players in the NFC with Adrian Peterson and Cordarrelle Patterson. Those two guys can change a game and score from any point on the field. I really like the hire of Mike Zimmer as their new head coach. You can tell if an assistant coach has the ability to be a head coach and after watching Zimmer on "Hard Knocks" and watching him on the sidelines during his career, you can tell that Zimmer is a real head coach. I think Zimmer will be successful once he builds this team the way he wants, and you know he is going to get all those young guys on defense to play well. Their schedule isn't awful and their two toughest out of division games are against New England in Week 2 and at New Orleans in Week 3, so they get them out of the way early.
What I Don't Like: It starts with the QB position. You can't win big in this league with a starter like Matt Cassel. I'm sorry but I've seen him play enough, and he simply isn't the kind of guy to bring a team to the playoffs. Then, the Vikings go draft Teddy Bridgewater at the end of the first round as hope for the future. It can't be good that Bridgewater went from a surefire top pick in the draft before the season started to a guy who plummeted to the end of the first round. They will turn to Bridgewater at some point in the season and that will be a sign that they are building for next season. Plus, this year the Vikings will play their home games at the University of Minnesota's stadium while they wait for their new stadium to be built. Anytime a team plays their home games at an alternate venue for a few years never seems to pan out. It will provide no homefield advantage outside of the weather, and going from a loud dome to a college campus is a disaster waiting to happen. The Vikes are at least a year away from contending for the playoffs.
Prediction: 6-10 (Last Place in the NFC North)
NFC South
1) New Orleans Saints
What I Like: The Saints finished 11-5 last year, and were valiant in defeat at Seattle in the Divisional Round in the playoffs, and they look like they will pick up where they left off heading into 2014. We all know how great Drew Brees is, and with the Jimmy Graham contract now finalized all the pieces are in place for Brees and that offense to grow this year. You have a feeling that rookie 1st round pick Brandin Cooks will be a perfect fit in the receiving corps to go with Graham and Marques Colston. Defensively, the Saints added S Jairus Byrd and CB Stanley-Jean Baptiste to their secondary to help out Kenny Vaccaro. I love their front seven, and when a defense has the ability to play with a lead and use their dome to their advantage, then watch out. Three of their toughest games this year are on a three game homestand from Weeks 10-12 (SF, Cincy, and Baltimore.) This team seems loaded and ready to make a run at the big two: Seattle and San Francisco.
What I Don't Like: Offensively, their offense is terrific, but they did lose Darren Sproles, Lance Moore, and C Brian De La Puente. I know this sounds a little ridiculous, but they scored over 30 points only six times last year. That is down year for their offense. Perhaps they are running out of steam a little bit. You just hope that their defensive additions pan out. Their schedule is friendly, but they do draw the NFC North and AFC North, and those divisions are two of the toughest in the NFL. Just like Green Bay, you just have to wonder when push comes to shove if they truly believe that they can beat Seattle or San Francisco if they meet up in the playoffs.
Prediction: 11-5 (Winners of the NFC South)
2) Atlanta Falcons
What I Like: Every year a team goes through a season and nothing breaks right for them. That was the story for the Falcons last year. Coming off three straight playoff seasons and a NFC Championship Game appearance, the Falcons crashed landed in 2013. Injuries piled up, close losses early doomed their season, and the Falcons never recovered from a 1-4 start on their way to a disappointing 4-12 finish. The Falcons just have that feeling of a team that is ready to bounce back in a big way in 2014. Matt Ryan is still a top level QB. He isn't in the elite level just yet, but he is just a notch below. If you have Ryan at QB, then you have a legitimate chance to be a playoff team. Plus, he is getting Julio Jones and Roddy White back healthy and ready to roll. Look out for a rejuvenated Steven Jackson to bounce back in 2014 too. They have added some beef to their defense with the additions of Tyson Jackson and Paul Soliai in free agency, and Ra'shede Hageman in the draft. They also shored up their offensive line with the drafting of OT Jake Matthews with the 6th overall pick. They finish with four out of their last six games at home and their toughest road game outside of their division is at Green Bay. Other than that, their schedule is friendly. I think the Falcons will rise up and get back to the playoffs with the help of Matt Ryan and that offense.
What I Don't Like: They did add some beef up front on their defensive line, but if you look at some other spots on their defense you have to get a little worried. Names like Jonathan Massaquoi, Paul Worrilow, Joplo Bartu, and Robert Alford aren't exactly household superstars, and when you are relying on Osi Umeniyora as your top pass rusher heading into the season, that could be a problem. Losing LT Sam Baker to injury in the preseason could be a real blow if Matthews isn't ready to take over his spot. We know that that will be better than what happened in 2013, but how much have they advanced on the Saints? Can they catch them? Are they able to deal with a sneaky tough division? Those are some reasons to worry about the Falcons making the leap back to the top of the division or into the playoffs.
Prediction: 10-6 (2nd Place and a Wild Card Berth)
3) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
What I Like: Lovie Smith isn't the greatest head coach of all time, but he did a pretty good job in Chicago, and I think he will bring some stability back to the franchise. With the selection of Mike Evans in the first round of the draft, the Bucs could have one of the better 1-2 combinations at WR pairing Evans and Vincent Jackson. Doug Martin is coming back from injury, and if they can get Josh McCown to replicate his play in Chicago from last season, then the Bucs could definitely surprise this year. Trading for Logan Mankins was the kind of move that really could help them short term. When you look at their defense, there is a lot of talent there for Lovie to play with. Michael Johnson, Gerald McCoy, Lavonte David, Dashon Goldson, and Alterraun Verner all can play, and it seems like their defense is ready to take off and become a force. They open up with two games at home (Carolina and St. Louis) and close with two at home (Green Bay and New Orleans). I think the Bucs are a year away, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them playing a meaningful game in Week 17 with a playoff berth on the line.
What I Don't Like: I know they end with two at home, but those two games are brutal with Green Bay and New Orleans coming to town. The Bucs better hope that the Saints have already clinched a playoff spot at that point. They also have a brutal three game road swing when they head to Atlanta, Pittsburgh, and New Orleans in Weeks 3 through 5. That is a tough stretch. The biggest question to me is the fact that they are pinning their hopes on offense on Josh McCown. Don't get me wrong because he played great last year in Chicago when Jay Cutler went down, but you have to wonder about putting the franchise on the shoulders of 12-year journeyman QB. I just think that might be too much to ask for McCown to overcome as the main man in Tampa Bay.
Prediction: 7-9 (3rd Place in the NFC South)
4) Carolina Panthers
What I Like: You have to admire how Cam Newton matured last year, and he is quite simply a force with the style that he plays. Ron Rivera also distinguished himself as a revolutionary with his gambling style and going for it on so many 4th down plays. Perhaps Rivera is a coach who just throws shit against the wall and it sticks every time. You also have the feeling that the Panthers are going to be in a lot of games with the way their defense plays. Their style of play is conducive to playing solid defense, controlling the ball with their running game, and letting Cam Newton make a few big plays to win the game in the end. That could work for them and keep them in every single game.
What I Don't Like: The Panthers offseason was a disaster. Jordan Gross retired and they lost Steve Smith, Brandon LaFell, and Ted Ginn to free agency. Those were three of the top four receivers on their team last year. They replaced them with Jerricho Cotchery, Jason Avant, and first round pick Kelvin Benjamin. Not exactly what I would call threatening in the receiving corps. Plus, Cam Newton needed offseason surgery, and he got hurt in the preseason, and you have to wonder how the wear and tear will affect his season. They also lost CB Captain Munnerlyn from their secondary. Throw in the fact that they are in a very tough division, and their out of division games include Pittsburgh, at Baltimore, Chicago, Cincy, at Green Bay, Seattle, and at Philly. That is a tough set of games to handle. It just seems like the Panthers are due for a letdown after last year's surprising 12-4 finish. The Panthers look like that team where everything just goes wrong and they never recover on their way to a disappointing season in 2014.
Prediction: 5-11 (Last Place in the NFC South)
1) Seattle Seahawks
What I Like: No team has won back-to-back Super Bowls since the Pats did it in 2004, and the Seahawks have the best chance to do it since them. Seattle is LOADED. Let me repeat that: Seattle is LOADED. They are the frontrunners to win the Super Bowl again, and they should be. Forget about the schedule. Forget about heading to San Francisco on Thanksgiving Night. Forget about their division. The Seahawks are going to be really good. Russell Wilson will be better, and they get a healthy Percy Harvin back for a full season. We know about their defense, and if you had any questions about them, then just go back and watch the film from the Super Bowl where they absolutely dominated the best offense in the history of the NFL. All the key guys are back and their defense will be just as good as it was last year. Throw in the coaching of Pete Carroll and the fact that they have the best homefield advantage of any team in any professional sport in North America. The only thing that can stop the Seahawks this year is themselves.
What I Don't Like: Pat Riley used to talk about the "Disease of Me" after teams won championships. He worried that championship teams would start worrying about everything else, but what they should be worrying about and that is winning another title. That might be the only thing that could stop Seattle this year. All the hype and publicity that Richard Sherman and company got this offseason could potentially derail their hopes. If you are rooting against them, then this might be the only hope for the Seahawks taking a step back in 2014.
Prediction: 12-4 (Winners of the NFC West)
2) San Francisco 49ers
What I Like: Pound for pound they are one of the top two teams in the entire NFL. They added Stevie Johnson to their receiver group that features Vernon Davis, Anquan Boldin, and Michael Crabtree. Colin Kaepernick should continue to get better and better, and Frank Gore is still a workhorse. Their front seven is still one of the best in football. They are a battle-tested team that has won 36 regular season games, five playoff games, and made three straight NFC Championship Game appearances in the past three seasons. They are also led by one of the best coaches in the NFL in Jim Harbaugh. They finish with four out of their last six games at home, and they get to exact revenge on Seattle with a night game on Thanksgiving at home. On paper, they should be one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl.
What I Don't Like: Here is why the 49ers will miss the playoffs and have a down year in 2014: I don't trust Colin Kapernick. Yes, he is talented and a good player, but I just don't trust him. He might be a franchise defining player down the road, but I think he takes a step back this year. I just don't think you can put everything on his plate and he will deliver every time. Also, I wonder how much has taken a toll on this team the last three years. They lost Navorro Bowman to a gruesome injury in the NFC Championship, and if he doesn't bounce back from the injury right away, then that could be trouble for their defense. Aldon Smith is suspended for the first nine games of the year, and DT Ray McDonald just got busted on a domestic violence issue. The Jim Harbaugh contract extension/relationship with the front office seems to be hanging over this franchise like a dark cloud. That is a lot of outside noise for this team to deal with. They also have question marks in the secondary-especially at cornerback. I would be a little worried about Chris Culliver and Tramaine Brock. This just might be a year where the 49ers just don't get any breaks, lose some close games, and run out of gas at the end. This is one of those "gut feeling" picks, and I think the Niners miss out on the playoffs for the first time under Harbaugh.
Prediction: 8-8 (2nd Place in the NFC West)
3) Arizona Cardinals
What I Like: How can you not love what Bruce Arians did last year as a first year head coach? A 10-6 record in that division was one of the most impressive jobs anyone has done in a long time. They have a top player on offense and defense in Larry Fitzgerald and Patrick Peterson. Their defense is really good upfront and they added Antonio Cromartie to a secondary that includes Peterson and Tyrann Mathieu. They even got over 4,000 yards and 24 touchdowns out of Carson Palmer last year. You know they aren't afraid of Seattle and San Francisco, and they shocked the Seahawks in Seattle last year in Week 16.
What I Don't Like: You are pinning your hopes on Carson Palmer once again. Palmer isn't awful, but to ask him to go out and win 10 games for you in that division is asking a lot. Outside of Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd, who scares you on that offense. In addition, you don't know how Mathieu will respond after tearing up his knee late last season. They are in a division with Seattle, San Francisco and an improving Rams team. Their schedule is nighmarish at times. Their first four games are: San Diego, a trip across the country against the Giants, San Francisco, and at Denver. They have to play at Seattle and at Atlanta back-to-back in Weeks 12 and 13, and they finish with at St. Louis (Thursday Night Game), Seattle, and at San Francisco in their final three games. It just seems like the deck is stacked a little too high for the Cards to repeat their success from last year.
Prediction: 8-8 (3rd Place in the NFC West)
4) St. Louis Rams
What I Like: The Rams were one of the most interesting teams heading into the season. Losing Sam Bradford for the year was a terrible situation; however, they have a lot of aspects of their team going in the right direction: A defense that can get to the quarterback and create turnovers (This is where Chris Long, Robert Quinn, Aaron Donald, James Laurinitis, Alec Ogletree, and Janoris Jenkins fit in), quality Coaching (Jeff Fisher), solid offensive line (Their first round pick Greg Robinson was one of the safest picks in the entire draft), and a few playmakers (Tavon Austin, Jared Cook, Zac Stacy, and rookie RB Tre Mason.) Here are their first three games on their schedule: Minnesota, at Tampa Bay, and Dallas. Their last five games are friendly too: Oakland, at Washington, Arizona, NY Giants, and at Seattle. I know they are in a tough division, but if they can at least go 3-3 in their division, then maybe they have a shot to surprise some people this year. If Shaun Hill can give them anything resembling some quality play, then they will at least be playing meaningful games come December.
What I Don't Like: Losing Sam Bradford to a torn ACL really screwed their shot as being a legitimate playoff contender. I know Bradford had a lot to prove, but when you put all your eggs in one basket, and that gets blown up, it is really hard to recover. I just don't think Hill can do it consistently week in and week out to keep the Rams afloat. Plus, we know how tough it is to be in the same division as Seattle and San Francisco. Their schedule has a really tough stretch when they play at Philly, San Fran, Seattle, at Kansas City, at San Fran, and at Arizona in a six game stretch from Weeks 5-10. That is a very tough set of games. If they get off to a slow start, then their season could go down the tubes. They may be competitive each week, but the loss of Bradford will keep them out of the playoffs.
Prediction: 5-11 (Last Place in the NFC West)
Quick Recap:
NFC East
1) NY Giants (9-7)
2) Philly (8-8)
3) Washington (8-8)
4) Dallas (5-11)
NFC North
1) Green Bay (11-5)
2) Chicago (9-7)-Wild Card
3) Detroit (7-9)
4) Minnesota (6-10)
NFC South
1) New Orleans (11-5)
2) Atlanta (10-6)-Wild Card
3) Tampa Bay (7-9)
4) Carolina (5-11)
NFC West
1) Seattle (12-4)
2) San Francisco (8-8)
3) Arizona (8-8)
4) St. Louis (5-11)
NFC Playoff Seeds/Predictions
1) Seattle
2) Green Bay
3) New Orleans
4) NY Giants
5) Atlanta
6) Chicago
Wild Card Round:
3-New Orleans over 6-Chicago (Brees and the Saints outlast the Bears in a fun Wild Card matchup)
5-Atlanta over 4-Giants (Falcons get revenge from 2011 Wild Card loss to Giants)
Divisional Round:
1-Seattle over 5-Atlanta (Seahawks become first defending Super Bowl Champion to win a playoff game the next year since 2005 Patriots)
2-Green Bay over 3-New Orleans (Rodgers outduels Brees in a classic shootout to advance to NFC Championship)
NFC Championship Game
2-Green Bay over 1-Seattle (The Packers stun the Seahawks in Seattle to advance to the Super Bowl)
Saturday, August 30, 2014
Your 2014 Denver Broncos
The Broncos made their final cuts on Saturday, and the 53 man roster is set for the 2014 season. There were some interesting moves that took place to get to the final number. The two moves that might stand out the most were the releases of DT Kevin Vickerson and S Duke Ihenacho. Vickerson was a mainstay on the defensive line the past few seasons, but he was coming off a hip injury that ended his 2013 season prematurely. Denver has a lot of depth at the defensive line this year, so Vickerson was expendable. Ihenacho was also a starter last year, and he was the big story coming out of the 2013 training camp. He started Week 1 but as the season progress he was benched in certain spots and looked lost at times when he was out there. It is a mild surprised that he didn't make the final 53. As for guys who made the roster, there are a few names that stand out. Two undrafted rookies, Juwan Thompson and Isaiah Burse, made the team. Look for Burse to be a returner early on in the season, and look for Thompson to probably get deactivated in the beginning of the year. Ben Garland spent two years on the practice squad as a defensive lineman, but he made the team this year as an offensive lineman. The former Air Force Falcon spent years doing military service, and now he gets his chance to be a full-time Bronco. Marvin Austin was the pleasant surprise during training camp, and he earned his way onto the roster to bolster the defensive line, and S Quinton Carter made the team after spending two straight seasons on injured reserve. People forget how solid Carter played for Denver in 2011. His play got swallowed up by Tim Tebow and Tebowmania, but he was a key contributor to that defense that helped Denver get to the playoffs in 2011 and beat Pittsburgh in the Wild Card round. Overall, this is a deep and talented roster, but we knew that going into the summer. There could be some moves made before next week's game against Indy, but for know and the foreseeable future, here are your 2014 Denver Broncos:
Offense
QBs: Peyton Manning, Brock Osweiler
RB: Montee Ball, Ronnie Hillman, C.J. Anderson, Juwan Thompson
WR: Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker, Emmanuel Sanders, Andre Caldwell, Cody Latimer, and Isaiah Burse
C: Manny Ramirez, Will Montgomery
G: Orlando Franklin, Louis Vasquez, Ben Garland
T: Ryan Clady, Chris Clark, Michael Schofield, Paul Cornick
TE: Julius Thomas, Virgil Green, Jacob Tamme
Defense
DT: Sylvester Williams, Terrance Knighton, Marvin Austin, Mitch Unrein
DE: DeMarcus Ware, Derek Wolfe, Malik Jackson, Quanterus Smith
OLB: Von Miller, Danny Trevathan, Brandon Marshall, Lerentee McCray, Corey Nelson
ILB: Nate Irving, Steven Johnson, Lamin Barrow
CB: Aqib Talib, Chris Harris, Kayvon Webster, Bradley Roby, Omar Bolden, Tony Carter
S: Rahim Moore, T.J. Ward, Quinton Carter, David Bruton
Special Teams
P: Britton Colquitt
K: Brandon McManus
LS: Aaron Brewer
Offense
QBs: Peyton Manning, Brock Osweiler
RB: Montee Ball, Ronnie Hillman, C.J. Anderson, Juwan Thompson
WR: Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker, Emmanuel Sanders, Andre Caldwell, Cody Latimer, and Isaiah Burse
C: Manny Ramirez, Will Montgomery
G: Orlando Franklin, Louis Vasquez, Ben Garland
T: Ryan Clady, Chris Clark, Michael Schofield, Paul Cornick
TE: Julius Thomas, Virgil Green, Jacob Tamme
Defense
DT: Sylvester Williams, Terrance Knighton, Marvin Austin, Mitch Unrein
DE: DeMarcus Ware, Derek Wolfe, Malik Jackson, Quanterus Smith
OLB: Von Miller, Danny Trevathan, Brandon Marshall, Lerentee McCray, Corey Nelson
ILB: Nate Irving, Steven Johnson, Lamin Barrow
CB: Aqib Talib, Chris Harris, Kayvon Webster, Bradley Roby, Omar Bolden, Tony Carter
S: Rahim Moore, T.J. Ward, Quinton Carter, David Bruton
Special Teams
P: Britton Colquitt
K: Brandon McManus
LS: Aaron Brewer
Tuesday, August 26, 2014
Prater Suspended Four Games
The Broncos found out on Sunday that K Matt Prater will be suspended for the first four games of the season due to a violation of the NFL's Substance Abuse Policy. As a result, the Broncos traded a conditional 7th round pick to the Giants for K Brandon McManus. It looks like McManus will head into the season as the kicker until Prater comes back. It could be a very key storyline for the Broncos because their first four games are not easy at all. They host Indy, KC, at Seattle, and host Arizona. There is a good chance that those games could come down to a big kick and having a young kicker out there could be an ominous move.
Broncos Preseason Game #3 Review
There is a lot to take in about the Broncos game against the Texans on Saturday night. The fact that they lost the game 18-17 is meaningless. The two big stories that come from this game is the fact that Peyton Manning got his rhythm going with new wideout Emmanuel Sanders, and Wes Welker suffered another concussion. That is all you really need to take from this game. Here are my quick thoughts on the game...
1) Manning looked good once again this preseason. His 67 yard touchdown pass to Sanders in the second quarter was a thing of beauty. He followed it up with a sweet 29 yard touchdown pass to Sanders again later in the quarter. The Broncos are going to need Sanders to step up in their passing game this year.
2) Wes Welker suffered his 3rd concussion in the last 10 months. It sounds like Welker is in good spirits and there is a chance that he will be able to play Week 1. There is a lot that has to happen before we get there, but you hope Welker is okay for the Indy game. If he can't go, then you just hope he doesn't have any setbacks and can play as quickly as possible. We know how important he is for this offense and for Manning, and hopefully he can comeback and play well and stay healthy.
3) I love that Manning drew a taunting penalty for yelling at Houston defender D.J. Swearinger after throwing a touchdown pass to Sanders the play after Swearinger knocked out Welker. It is good to see Manning get feisty like that, and maybe that is a harbinger of the way Manning acts and feels as the season progresses.
4) The Broncos finish off the preseason with a game at Dallas. Most of the big name starters won't be in action, but the game will be big for some guys on the fringe of the roster. I'll have a final breakdown of the Broncos 53 man roster selection once that becomes official.
1) Manning looked good once again this preseason. His 67 yard touchdown pass to Sanders in the second quarter was a thing of beauty. He followed it up with a sweet 29 yard touchdown pass to Sanders again later in the quarter. The Broncos are going to need Sanders to step up in their passing game this year.
2) Wes Welker suffered his 3rd concussion in the last 10 months. It sounds like Welker is in good spirits and there is a chance that he will be able to play Week 1. There is a lot that has to happen before we get there, but you hope Welker is okay for the Indy game. If he can't go, then you just hope he doesn't have any setbacks and can play as quickly as possible. We know how important he is for this offense and for Manning, and hopefully he can comeback and play well and stay healthy.
3) I love that Manning drew a taunting penalty for yelling at Houston defender D.J. Swearinger after throwing a touchdown pass to Sanders the play after Swearinger knocked out Welker. It is good to see Manning get feisty like that, and maybe that is a harbinger of the way Manning acts and feels as the season progresses.
4) The Broncos finish off the preseason with a game at Dallas. Most of the big name starters won't be in action, but the game will be big for some guys on the fringe of the roster. I'll have a final breakdown of the Broncos 53 man roster selection once that becomes official.
Thursday, August 21, 2014
Broncos Preseason Game 2 Review
The Broncos defeated the Niners 34-0 in Week 2 of the preseason on Sunday. The good news is that the Broncos are now 2-0 in the preseason and their first team offense scored 10 points on the Niners, but the bad news is that it is the preseason and that means absolutely nothing in the grand scheme of things. Here are my quick thoughts on the game...
1) Peyton Manning and the first team offense looked really good in their two drives on Sunday. Manning finished 12-14 for 102 yards and a 17-yard touchdown pass to Julius Thomas to finish the day. I know the 49ers were playing a very vanilla defense, but it is nice to see the first team move the ball and score points when they were out their out there.
2) If there was one guy on the first team defense that stood out it was LB Brandon Marshall. He is getting the chance to replace injured LB Danny Trevathan, and I thought Marshall really played well. If the Broncos can get something out of him the first five or six weeks when Trevathan is out, then that will be a good sign for the defense going forward.
3) The Broncos looked pretty sharp on offense and defense but remember that these teams play each other on October 19th, so their is no way that the 49ers are going to show Manning anything before they meet up on that date.
4) You have to give Brock Osweiler some credit for his performance. He played well (10-13 for 105 yards and 1 TD) and he generated a couple of scoring drives. He threw a great touchdown pass to Cody Latimer in the the 3rd quarter to give the Broncos a commanding 24-0 lead. We know that whatever Osweiler does in preseason won't matter until he finally becomes the starter, but it was good to see him come in and play well.
5) The Broncos have to happy that they won in convincing fashion, but the big picture is that the 49ers will be a really tough game for them in October, and this matchup really meant nothing in relation to the game that counts when they play in Denver.
1) Peyton Manning and the first team offense looked really good in their two drives on Sunday. Manning finished 12-14 for 102 yards and a 17-yard touchdown pass to Julius Thomas to finish the day. I know the 49ers were playing a very vanilla defense, but it is nice to see the first team move the ball and score points when they were out their out there.
2) If there was one guy on the first team defense that stood out it was LB Brandon Marshall. He is getting the chance to replace injured LB Danny Trevathan, and I thought Marshall really played well. If the Broncos can get something out of him the first five or six weeks when Trevathan is out, then that will be a good sign for the defense going forward.
3) The Broncos looked pretty sharp on offense and defense but remember that these teams play each other on October 19th, so their is no way that the 49ers are going to show Manning anything before they meet up on that date.
4) You have to give Brock Osweiler some credit for his performance. He played well (10-13 for 105 yards and 1 TD) and he generated a couple of scoring drives. He threw a great touchdown pass to Cody Latimer in the the 3rd quarter to give the Broncos a commanding 24-0 lead. We know that whatever Osweiler does in preseason won't matter until he finally becomes the starter, but it was good to see him come in and play well.
5) The Broncos have to happy that they won in convincing fashion, but the big picture is that the 49ers will be a really tough game for them in October, and this matchup really meant nothing in relation to the game that counts when they play in Denver.
Friday, August 15, 2014
Trevathan Out 6-8 Weeks
Arguably, one of the most important players on the Broncos defense-WLB Danny Trevathan-will miss anywhere from 6-8 weeks after suffering a fracture in the bone just below his knee on Tuesday during a training camp practice. Apparently, it looked really bad as it happened and it looked like he might be lost for the season, but ultimately it was only a fracture and that should shelve Trevathan until at least the Broncos bye week in Week 4 of the season. Look for Trevathan to return to action either in Week 5 at home vs. Arizona on October 5th or Week 6 at the Jets on October 12th.
Friday, August 8, 2014
Broncos Preseason Game 1 Review
The Broncos defeated the Seahawks in the preseason opener last night 21-16 at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. The game featured a 45 minute lighting delay and 25 combined penalties. There were so many penalties that I actually considered just turning the game off in the first quarter and boycotting it. It was that bad. Onto the game, where the Broncos exact some revenge from last year's Super Bowl defeat......
1) Peyton Manning looked really good and in sync with Demaryius Thomas. Manning finished 10-13 for 78 yards and led the team to a touchdown on their second drive of the game. Thomas finished with 5 catches for 52 yards on two series. It was a nice start to the preseason for this offense.
2) Brock Osweiler got the rest of game for the Broncos and it was up and down to say the least. It is really hard to know if Osweiler is the answer post-Manning, but he ended his evening with a 34 yard touchdown pass to Jordan Norwood to give Denver the lead for good in the 4th quarter. He did throw a bad interception and finished 6-12 for 85 yards. The bottom line is that the jury is still out on Brock.
3) Another young standout on offense was RB Juwan Thompson. The undrafted rookie really improved his chances of making the team with a solid night on the ground.
3) Another young standout on offense was RB Juwan Thompson. The undrafted rookie really improved his chances of making the team with a solid night on the ground.
3) A few defensive players stood out for the Broncos. Demarcus Ware made his presence known in his two series. T.J. Ward was an animal all over the field. He looked dominating at times. As I said a few months, he might be the best offseason addition to this team.
4) DT Marvin Austin has become a story in training camp and it carried over to last night's game. He was all over place, penetrating at will, and added a sack to boot. Look for Austin to get more rotational reps with the first team defense. He could become a huge factor this year.
5) The game was ugly and sloppy at times, but that is what you expect out of the first preseason game. The Broncos scored a touchdown with their first team offense, showed some good things on defense, won the game, and came out healthy. I'll take that for a preseason opener.
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