Week 17 Picks

It is amazing that we have hit the last week of the 2010 NFL season. No season goes faster then the NFL year, and as we hit Week 17 there isn't as much drama as we would normally see. Barring any major shakeups, the playoff picture is pretty much set. In the NFC, Atlanta will most likely get the 1 seed, Chicago already has the 2 seed, the Eagles have the 3 seed, the NFC West winner has the 4 seed, New Orleans most likely has the 5 seed, and Green Bay or the Giants will get the 6th seed with the Packers having the inside track because they face a Bears team with nothing to play for. Over in the AFC, the Pats have the 1 seed, either Pittsburgh or Baltimore will have the 2 seed, the Chiefs will probably get the 3 seed, the Colts should snag the 4 seed, the Jets and the Ravens/Steelers will get the wildcard spots. The AFC has a little bit of seeding to figure out, but in any event the playoffs are pretty much set. This brings me to my next point: How is Wildcard Weekend going to play out? I love trying to figure out the schedule for the playoffs-especially the first weekend. Last year, the NFL threw us a curveball and changed the rotational schedule around on Wildcard Sunday. Instead of giving CBS the late time slot on Sunday of Wildcard weekend, they gave it to FOX because the League gave NBC the marquee game of the weekend-Philly at Dallas. Will the NFL go back to a rotation and give CBS the late slot on Sunday? Will the League continue to throw NBC a bone and give them the best of the four games for Saturday Night? We will find out at about 8:00pm on Sunday Night, but it is always fun to speculate. My guess is that even if the NFL decides to give CBS the late slot on Sunday, NBC won't have as much of an influence this year. Here is how I see it all playing out on Wildcard Weekend:

Saturday 1/8

4:30pm-NBC

(5) New Orleans at (4) St.Louis

8:00pm-NBC

(5) Baltimore at (4) Indy

Sunday 1/9

1:00pm-CBS

(6) NY Jets at (3) Kansas City

4:00pm-FOX

(6) Green Bay at (3) Philly

We'll see what the NFL decides, but that would be the way I would do it, and I think the NFL could very well do it that way. Anyway, enjoy Sunday because it is the last time all 32 teams play the same week until next September. Onto the picks for Week 17.......

Last Week's Record: 7-9-0

Overall Record: 126-108-8

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

KANSAS CITY (-3) over Oakland: It is tough to see how KC will play this one with the AFC West already wrapped up. The Chiefs might want to win to preserve an undefeated record at home this season and stick it to their AFC West rivals. The Raiders are looking to finish 8-8. I'll take the Chiefs to win and keep their momentum going into the playoffs.

Miami (+4) over NEW ENGLAND: Another tough game to call because the Pats have nothing to gain from this game. I could see the Dolphins winning this game and going 7-1 on the road this year. Tough game to call, but I'l take the Fish in a meaningless matchup.

INDY (-7) over Tennessee: It's hard to pick against Peyton Manning and the Colts at home with a playoff berth on the line. No one wants to see Indy in round one.

HOUSTON (-3) over Jacksonville: Two words: Trent Edwards. With David Garrard out, the Texans will beat the Jags and Trent Edwards to knock the Jags out of the playoff hunt.

Pittsburgh (-5) over CLEVELAND: The Steelers need to win this game to secure the 2 seed, and they will get it done on the road. Eric Mangini likely won't be back in Cleveland next year, and the Steelers will take care of business and get a week off.

BALTIMORE (-7) over Cincy: The Ravens will win this game easily, but end up as the 5 seed. They will be a very dangerous wildcard team, and could be a tough out for anyone-including the Pats.

Minnesota (+3) over DETROIT: No way the Lions are winning four in a row, and the Vikings are playing to make sure Leslie Frazier is their coach next season.

New York Giants (-3) over WASHINGTON: The Giants will pull together and get the win on the road this week. They might not get in the playoffs, but Tom Coughlin should not lose his job after a 10-6 season.

GREEN BAY (-8) over Chicago: This a classic setup for the Packers. The Bears have already clinched the 2 seed, and the week off, and the Packers need to win a get in. Green Bay gets it done at home over their archrival to get the sixth seed.

Dallas (+7) over PHILLY: Kevin Kolb is replacing Mike Vick this week, and I just can't trust him or the Eagles right now. The Cowboys are playing to help Jason Garrett get the Head Coaching job in Big D next year, and I bet they play very well.

Buffalo (+3) over NY JETS: You don't know how much Mark Sanchez and the rest of the Jets starters will play this week with their playoff see already determined. With that uncertainty just take the Bills.

ATLANTA (-11) over Carolina: You would think the Falcons would come out and play lights out to secure the 1 seed right? Let's hope so. The Falcons make quick work of the Panthers.

NEW ORLEANS (-7) over Tampa Bay: The Bucs were overachieving all year long, but they will stop at nine wins this year. The Saints could still grab the 1 seed, but they need help from the Panthers. The Saints roll at home, but they will still end up as a wildcard.

Arizona (+7) over SAN FRANCISCO: Another NFC West matchup and another impossible game to pick. The 49ers will be starting over next year with a new coach, and the Cardinals are going to need a new QB. Take the Cards in this stinker.

St. Louis (-3) over SEATTLE: I love that NBC put this "Winner Take All" game as the SNF finale. The NFC West title is on the line as the Rams battle the Seahawks. What were the odds that this game would be flexed in Week 17? How many people saw the Rams and Seahawks battling for the NFC West title this year? I think there should be a new pool: At the beginning of the season, you get 16 people to pick each Week 17 game out of a hat. Whichever game gets picked for the SNF game in Week 17, that person who picked it gets the pot. I love this idea! Anyway, I can't believe how many people are picking Seattle this week. The Rams are a better team, and we can't have a 7-9 team make the playoffs, so I'm taking Sam Bradford and the Rams to win the NFC West.

San Diego (-3) over Denver: The Chargers are just better then Denver. Phillip Rivers owns the Broncos and the Denver defense just can't matchup. The Chargers will get after Tim Tebow all da................................You know what? Fuck it! It is Week 17, and what do I have to lose? After watching Tebow bring Denver back from 13 down in the fourth quarter last week, how could I bet against the guy right now?

DENVER (+3) over San Diego: It's TEBOW TIME Baby! Tebow has pumped some life in an otherwise miserable season for Denver. I'm taking the Broncos at home with Tebow. Let's go Broncos!!!!!

Final Score: Denver-23 San Diego-21

Tebow Leads Denver Comeback Win Over Texans!

In absolutely dreadful Denver Broncos season, there was at least one Sunday when a Bronco fan can rejoice and have some fun. The Broncos, behind Tim Tebow, trailed 17-0 at the half, and they were down 23-10 with 11 minutes left in the fourth quarter. Tebow hit Correll Buckhalter for a 23 yard touchdown on a screen pass to make it 23-17. The Broncos defense made a rare big stop, and the Broncos got the ball back on their own 22. Tebow hit Buckhalter on a big third down pass. He also hit Brandon Lloyd on a big pass play into Texan territory. Tebow then took over with a big run deep into Houston for a first down. After a pass interference, Tebow rolled right, stopped, and then scrambled back to his left and scampered into the corner of the end zone to put Denver up 24-23 with 3:02 left. Houston was driving into Denver territory, when on a first and ten from the Denver 40, Matt Schaub was throwing over the middle and it was deflected by Justin Bannan and intercepted by Syd'Quan Thompson to end the game. It was a great victory for the Broncos, Tebow, and the Bronco fans. Tebow's final numbers were solid again: 16-29 308 with 1 TD and 1 Int. He really got hot in the second half, and made a big time 50 yard bomb to Jabar Gaffney to get the Broncos going on their first drive of the second half to get the game to 17-7. He moved well outside the pocket, made plays when it broke down, and really threw well off of play action and from the pocket. He made some big plays on third down-especially on the last two drives of the game. The best part about Tebow's big comeback win was that Invesco Field at Mile High was rocking like it was a playoff game. The crowd was going crazy, and even CBS announcer Don Criqui was commenting how the crowd was bring back memories of the old Mile High. Trust me, the last five years haven't produced too many big time pandemonium at Invesco, but Sunday's win was one of the best scenes in Denver since the Ed Hochuli game in 2008 over the Chargers. Great win and great moment for Tebow and Denver. One more story about Sunday's game: Sunday was my son's first birthday. I taped the game, VHS style, on Sunday because I just had a feeling that Denver might win this game, and I wanted to tape it just in case. After the game was over, I stopped the recording and wrote on the label: 12/26/10 Denver-24 Houston-23 Tim Tebow's First Win and Nicholas' First Birthday! Maybe one day in the future, my son and I can put in this tape and watch what was the beginning of the Tebow Era in Denver. That would be a pretty cool moment and hopefully Tebow will be the man in Denver for a long time to come.

A Few Quick Thoughts on the game.......

1) Tebow's 308 passing yards were the 2nd most by a Denver rookie QB since John Elway in 1983.

2) This was a classic game that Elway and Denver always would wind up winning. Brian Griese, Jay Cutler, Jake Plummer and even Kyle Orton had comeback wins for the Broncos, but this Tebow comeback just feels different.

3) The defense was terrible in the first half, but got better and played well in the second half. They stopped Houston when they had to, and got the turnover at the end when they needed it.

4) I love Gary Kubiak as an OC, and it was fun to watch his offense yesterday, but I'm not so sure he should be the Broncos next head coach.

5) Tebow's passer rating was 89.2, so he is about a 95 rating for his two games. Not too bad for a guy who people said can't play QB in the NFL.

6) Denver is now 4-11 and hosts San Diego next week in the season finale. San Diego is 8-7 and out of the playoff picture, but this game is going to be fun to watch because of the Tebow factor. It would be great to see Tebow and Denver knock off the Chargers at home on Sunday.

Down the Stretch and Week 16 Picks!!!

As we enter Week 16, the NFL playoff picture is really starting to sort itself out. The AFC is pretty much set: New England, Pittsburgh, Indy/Jax, KC/SD, and Baltimore and the Jets get the wild card. The NFC has Atlanta, Philly, Chicago, St.Louis/SF/Seattle, New Orleans and either the Giants or Green Bay as the last wild card. If you are a huge NFL fan and you want to see some excitement in Week 17 here are the games you want to watch and some of the possibilities that could create a fun Week 17...........



Jets at Chicago: You want the Bears to win, so that gives the Jets a must win game at home vs. Buffalo in Week 17. If the Bears win, they might still have to play hard to beat Green Bay in Week 17 for a bye.



San Diego at Cincy: Root for San Diego to win so they can still be alive to win the division in Week 17, and of course they need help in the form of the Chiefs losing.



Tennessee at Kansas City: If you want choas in the AFC West, then root for the Titans to win this week. If they pull off the upset in KC, then KC has to win their last game at home to win the West.



Indy at Oakland: The Raiders have a slight outside chance to win the West, but root for the Colts only because if they win out then they will win the South. It is better to have the Colts in the playoffs then the Jaguars.



San Francisco at St.Louis: Root for the 49ers if you want the Niners to somehow come up and steal the division. Either way this game actually does mean a lot.



Baltimore at Cleveland: The Ravens are still fighting for the division, but the Steelers have the inside track. Root for the Ravens to keep the AFC North title up for grabs.



Minnesota at Philly: This game isn't very appealing, but root for Philly because it would make Philly and Chicago both play their starters for the 2 seed and the bye in the playoffs.



Seattle at Tampa Bay: Root for Seattle if you want the Rams and Seahawks game to mean anything in Week 17. No one wants Tampa in the playoffs, so go for the Seahawks in this one.



Washington at Jacksonville: I will root for the Redskins because I don't want the Jags in the playoffs, but if you are looking at it objectively, then you would have to look for the Jags to win to keep the AFC South in doubt until Week 17.



New Orleans at Atlanta: Go with the Saints if you want Week 17 to mean anything to the Falcons. If the Saints win, then both will have to play hard in Week 17 for playoff positioning.



NY Giants at Green Bay: This is a huge game and if you want some drama for Week 17, then root for the Packers. If Green Bay wins then all they need to do is beat Chicago at home to get a wild card. A Giants loss to Green Bay puts the G-Men in a must win at Washington and they would need a Bears win over the Pack to put them in. If the Giants win, then the Giants are in and the Packers are basically done.



If we get a lot of these outcomes, then most of the games in Week 17 will have some type of impact and meaning. I'll check back next week and see how it all plays out for the final week of the season.



Onto the picks for Week 16:



Last Week's Record: 10-6

Overall Record: 119-98-8

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)



PITTSBURGH (-11) over Carolina:

A Thought on the Steelers: Pittsburgh is headed for the 2 seed in the AFC, but they will have an interesting road to the Super Bowl. They could end up with Indy or Baltimore at home in Round 2, and that could be a very tough matchup for them-especially if Troy Polamalu isn't 100 percent.



A Thought on the Panthers: The Panthers will hire a nondescript head coach to replace John Fox. They should get the number one pick, and they should absolutely take Andrew Luck. Start fresh with a new coach and new QB.



Dallas (-5) over ARIZONA:

A Thought on the Cowboys: If the Cowboys split their last two games, they will finish at 6-10. That is not too bad after starting 1-7. Jason Garrett deserves to keep the head coaching job next year in Dallas.



A Thought on the Cardinals: The Cards need a QB in the worst way and everyone is going to point to Donovan McNabb. I would also look for the Cards to be in the Kevin Kolb sweepstakes. Ken Wisenhunt is a good coach and once he gets the QB situation figured out, he will turn the Cardinals back around.



MIAMI (-2) over Detroit:

A Thought on the Dolphins: The Fish screwed me this season. I had them picked to win the AFC East, and I really thought they were going to be a playoff team. I'm very disappointed in the Dolphins, but I'm not so sure Tony Sparano returns next year.



A Thought on the Lions: The Lions officially go to the top of the 2011 Sleeper Candidates after this season. If Matt Stafford comes back healthy, they will contend for a wild card next year.



PHILLY (-8) over Minnesota:

A Thought on the Eagles: Their win at the Giants last week was one of the most incredible comebacks ever. Michael Vick was amazing and he is doing all the things that people potentially thought he could do in the NFL. The Eagles are on track for the NFC East title and maybe a bye. They will be a popular Super Bowl pick this January.



A Thought on the Vikings: Leslie Frazier probably deserves a chance to be the HC in Minnesota next season. Once they find their QB solution (Kyle Orton?) maybe they will turn it around. Plus, they really need to build a new outdoor stadium for the Vikes. We need more snowy weather games in the NFL.



JACKSONVILLE (-6) over Washington:

A Thought on the Jaguars: Give Jack Del Rio credit because no one expected anything out of the Jags this season. He has a no name roster and little money and support to work with, and he gets the most out of his team. The one thing that always bothers me about Jacksonville is David Garrard. He is good enough to help you win 8-9 games, but he will never take you over the top.

A Thought on the Redskins: How bad must Donovan McNabb been this year for Mike Shanahan and his son, Kyle, to have given up on him already? Shanny knows quarterbacking and if it ain't there he finds a new guy (Just ask Brian Griese and Jake Plummer). I give Shanny credit for coming in and trying to bridge the gap for a year and be competitive. They are a lot farther away now then he probably thought, so why not start the rebuilding process. Shanny inherited all these problems the Redskins have, now he has to fix it himself.

ST.LOUIS (-2) over San Francisco:
A Thought on the Rams: Steve Spagnuolo and Sam Bradford have turned the Rams around. If they can win this game, then they have a solid chance of winning the NFC West. Amazing what a QB can do for a franchise.

A Thought on the 49ers: The fact that the Niners can still win the West at 7-9 is pretty sad, but hey, they are still in it. Mike Singletary will be gone next year, and they will probably be looking for a new HC. SF hasn't made the playoffs since 2002.

TAMPA BAY (-6) over Seattle:
A Thought on the Bucs: Great job by Raheem Morris this year, but the Bucs are still a year away. They will lament that loss last week at home to Detroit all offseason.

A Thought on the Seahawks: I have been waiting for Seattle to step up and win the West, and the last few weeks I thought they would beat KC and Atlanta at home. If they can somehow steal this game, then I could see them beating the Rams at home to win the division.

BUFFALO (+8) over New England:
A Thought on Buffalo: The Bills have played hard every week and they could actually be something like 6-8 at this point or even 7-7. The one thing about this year for the Bills is that Ryan Fitzpatrick played well and Bills fans are going to believe he could be their QB going forward, and I just don't see that happening. Buffalo still should address their QB situation this offseason and if they don't, it will be a major mistake.

A Thought on the Patriots: The Pats will win this game, but it will be closer then people think. The two teams the Pats don't want to see in the playoffs are the Colts and the Ravens. My Super Bowl pick of the Patriots is really looking good right now.

NY Jets (+1) over CHICAGO:
A Thought on the Jets: Big win last week for them in Pittsburgh, but Jet fans just can't be satisfied with making the playoffs and winning one game. The Jets are Super Bowl or Bust this sesaon. It looks like they might catch a break and get KC in the Wildcard round, but if they win they are probably headed to New England. Losing at New England is not acceptable if you are a realistic Jet fan this season.

A Thought on the Bears: So Josh McDaniels how did that Jay Cutler trade work out? Give Cutler and the Bears credit for winning the NFC North with an awful offensive line. The Bears will tough at home in their first game, but if they draw the Giants or Packers, they could be one and done.

Baltimore (-3) over CLEVELAND:
A Thought on the Ravens: The Ravens are headed for their third straight playoff appearance and the five seed, which could mean a date with Peyton Manning in round one. I just don't see the Ravens going deep in the playoffs this year.

A Thought on the Browns: Will Eric Mangini be back next season? It looked like he would just three weeks ago, but back to back losses have put him back on the hot seat. I would bring him back next year, but if Jon Gruden wants to come to Cleveland, then the Browns will make the move.

KANSAS CITY (-4) over Tennessee:
A Thought on the Chiefs: This could be a tricky game for them this week, but they should get through it. The Chiefs look to be one and done in the playoffs, even with a home game, because the Jets or Ravens are not good matchups for them.

A Thought on the Titans: Will Jeff Fisher be back next year? I don't think he will. I could see Fisher in Dallas or in Houston next year.

OAKLAND (+3) over Indy:
A Thought on the Raiders: The Raiders are much improved and with a few bounces they could actually be in front of the division. The difference for the Raiders will be if they can upgrade their QB position. The Raiders will never be more then a 8-8 team with Jason Campbell at the helm.

A Thought on the Colts: I think the Colts will figure out a way to win this game, but it will be a tough one. I hope the Colts make the playoffs because it is just better to have Peyton Manning in the postseason. I just can't trust the Colts right now.

GREEN BAY (-3) over NY Giants:
A Thought on Green Bay: The Packers lose two in a row and at 8-6 still have a good chance to make the playoffs. Why? Because they get the reeling Giants at home and the Bears at home in Week 17 and the Bears will have everything all locked up by then. I think the Packers play lights out this week and look for a big game by Aaron Rodgers.

A Thought on the Giants: I just don't know how you recover after last week's loss at home to Philly. I just don't see the Giants winning this game in Lambeau this week. Great game and great setting, but I think the G-Men are in trouble.

CINCY (+8) over San Diego:
A Thought on the Bengals: There are some big changes coming to the Bengals. Marvin Lewis will probably be out, and what will happen with Carson Palmer? If I am the Bengals, I would hire Josh McDaniels to be my OC and have him work with Palmer next year.

A Thought on the Chargers: SD will win this game, but it will be close. The whole East Coast, cold thing has me a little worried about them in Cincy. I actually hope the Chargers win and have something to play for in Week 17 at Denver. Then, I hope the Broncos go out and spoil their season!

ATLANTA (-2) over New Orleans:
A Thought on the Falcons: They win this game and wrap up the 1 seed in the NFC. They will be tough to beat at home in the playoffs. My NFC Super Bowl pick of Atlanta is looking good right now.

A Thought on the Saints: Even if the Saints lose this game, they will be fine. They'll beat TB next week and get the 5 seed and then go bury the NFC West Champ in Round One.

Houston (-3) over DENVER:
A Thought on the Texans: Gary Kubiak's days in Houston could be coming to an end. They built a really good offense there, but their defense has let them down. It doesn't help to be in the same division as the Colts every year. Plus, they have lost some just really brutal games the past two seasons. It's not all Kubiak's fault, but I don't know about him as a head coach.

A Thought on the Broncos: Invesco will be packed and rocking for Tim Tebow and Denver on Sunday. They should announce Tebow last for the player introductions, and I can't wait to see the fans' reaction to him. This is big for Tebow. He needs to play well to win over the new regime that comes into Denver next year. I would really love to see him play well and have Denver beat Houston this week, and then spoil the Chargers season next week. I think Tebow plays okay this week, but the Texans offense is just too much for the Broncos and their pathetic defense.

Final Score: Houston-34 Denver-20

Tebow's Debut Ends in Loss to Raiders

Denver fans finally got what they wanted: Tim Tebow started his first game as a Bronco. Unfortunately, Tebow couldn't deliver a victory as Denver fell to the Raiders 39-23 in soggy Oakland. The Broncos led 14-7 on a Tebow touchdown run and pass to Brandon Lloyd. Denver then battled back twice to tie the game at 17 and at 20. Denver was down 30-23 in the fourth quarter but RB Lance Ball was tackled in the end zone for a safety and that pretty much put the game away. Here are my quick thoughts on the game.......

1) When I got the text on Saturday Night that Tebow was starting, I became instantly giddy. This game was a much watch for any Denver fan. It was the most anticipated game for a team that was 3-10.
2) Overall, I thought Tebow's debut was okay. He did some nice things, showed mobility, leadership, energy and a really good arm. The Broncos coaches really bottled him up though. Just when Tebow seeemed to get into rhytmn in the second half throwing the ball, the coaches just hindered him with their play calling. Tebow can do some really good things, and of course there are some things that he needs work on. Overall, it does give hope to the future for Tebow in Denver. Hopefully, the new Broncos regime will see it that way too.
3) Tebow's 40 yard touchdown run to tie the game at 7 was one of the most exciting and fun plays of this Broncos season. A jump out of your seat type of play.
4) The Broncos got manhandled by the Oakland front seven and offensive line all day. The Raiders physically manhandled Denver twice this season up front.
5) The game turned on Syd'Quan Thompson's fumbled punt in the second quarter with Denver up 17-14. Special teams have killed the Broncos this year.
6) At 3-11, the Broncos are looking at a possible top 2 or 3 draft pick. They better pick defensive players in this draft because this defense is just pitiful.
7) The Broncos host Houston next week. Let's hope Tebow continues to start because the Bronco fans have some hope the rest of the way. If Kyle Orton is named starter for the game, then Denver fans should revolt and avoid going to or watching the game.

Week 15 Picks Revised

I'm switching three picks for this weekend..........

ST.LOUIS(+1) over Kansas City: I just can't take a chance with Matt Cassel and his appendix

DALLAS (-6) over Washington: Mike Shanahan just benched Donovan McNabb for Rex Grossman, so I have to jump to the Cowboys in this one.

NEW ENGLAND (-10) over Green Bay: Tom Brady vs. Matt Flynn.........Game over, dude.

NFL Playoff Madness and Week 15 Picks!!!

One of the greatest inventions in technology the last 20 years has to be the NFL Playoff Generator on Yahoo.com. It is amazing. For someone who spent so many nights and days tyring to break down tiebreaker scenarios and using newspapers to go back and check scores of games, having the generator is really like being a kid in a candy store. I used to love when Mike and the Mad Dog would break down the remaining schedules and tiebreakers in an attempt to figure out the NFL playoff picture. It was great radio and a lot of fun to listen to. The funny thing was that I would do the same thing on my own, and that little practice went back to when I was in high school. It's fun to try and come up with all the different playoff situations because the tiebreakers affect it so much. After a while on the generator, your head starts to spin and you just get so confused, but it is so addicting that you literally can't stop. With that being said here are some of my interesting playoff scenarios to look for these last three weeks. We'll start in the AFC......If you're a Jets fan, then root against the Chargers. If SD wins out and the Jets lose 2 out of 3 then the Jets are out of the playoffs. If you are a Miami fan, then you need a Jets collapse, Chargers or Chiefs collapse, a Jacksonville collapse and a Baltimore collapse-good luck with that. If your a Colts fan, then you hope the Jaguars fall apart and you have to win out. If your a Chiefs fan, then you are rooting against the Chargers. If you are a Chargers fan, then win out and hope for a Chiefs and Jets meltdown. If you are rooting for the Jags, then just beat Indy this week and you are in good shape. In the NFC, things can get even more complicated. The Giants and Eagles can go from a 3 seed or a 2 seed down to a 6 seed. The Packers can be a 3 seed or not even make the playoffs, and the same is true for the Bears. The Niners could go 7-9 and still win the NFC West. After playing around with all the scenarios, here is what I think the NFL Playoffs will look like............

AFC

1-New England

2-Pittsburgh

3-Kansas City

4-Indy

5-Baltimore

6-NY Jets



NFC

1-Atlanta

2-Philly

3-Chicago

4-St. Louis

5-New Orleans

6-NY Giants



With those seedings and matchups, here is what Wild Card Weekend could potentially look like:

*I am not sure what the League will do with the networks because last year they changed the rotation of the Sunday games



If CBS has the early Sunday Game:



Saturday 1/8

4:30 pm-NBC

5-New Orleans at 4-St. Louis



8:00pm-NBC

6-NY Jets at 3-Kansas City



Sunday 1/9

1:00pm-CBS

5-Baltimore at 4-Indy

4:00pm-FOX

6-NY Giants at 3-Chicago



*If FOX gets the early Sunday Game:

Saturday 1/8

4:30pm-NBC

5-New Orleans at 4-St. Louis

8:00pm-NBC

6-NY Jets at 3-Kansas City



Sunday 1/9

1:00pm-FOX
6-NY Giants at 3-Chicago



4:00pm-CBS

5-Baltimore at 4-Indy





Any way you slice it, there are some interesting possibilities and many changes will take place between now and Week 17.



Onto the picks for Week 15.......



Last Week's Record: 6-10-0
Overall Record: 109-92-8
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

Kansas City (+1) over ST.LOUIS: If Cassel starts, I'm taking the Chiefs. If he doesn't then this pick will be Rams (-1) over Chiefs. It would be devasting for the Chiefs to lose the AFC West, but the health of Matt Cassel might bury them. They simply can't afford any loses the rest of the way or they are done.

TENNESSEE (-1) over Houston: The Titans have to win at some point again, so why not get it this week against the Texans. Once again, the Texans lost a heartbreaker on MNF to the Ravens. The theme of the Gary Kubiak Era has been "Close and Exciting But No Cigar." Every time they lose they rip the hearts out of their fans' chests. The Titans finally win again at home.

Jacksonville (+5) over INDY: I played the Colts every week for the last three weeks and they have come up short everytime. I think the Colts win this game, but this will be a nailbiter. It won't suprise me to see David Garrard with the ball late in the game with a chance to win it. Great game for the AFC South Title.

CAROLINA (-2) over Arizona: The Panthers under John Fox have to win one more game before their dreadful season ends, and they get the job done over the Cardinals this week.

CINCY (-1) over Cleveland: The Bengals will either win this week or next week over the Chargers. I'm going to take them this week because of the uncertainty of the Browns QB situation.

Buffalo (+6) over MIAMI: How can anyone take the Dolphins at home after what they have done this season? Everytime I take the Fish and think they are getting on a roll, they lose. Everytime I bet against them and think they are done, they win on the road. I'm sticking with Bills in Miami to keep it close.

Philly (+2) over NY GIANTS: Great matchup between two NFC East rivals with the division on the line. I went back and forth all week with this game, but my gut just tells me that the Eagles will win a close one. Call it the Michael Vick factor, but I just see him making a big play down the stretch to give Philly a classic 24-20 win on the road.

Washington (+6) over DALLAS: Everyone feels that the Redskins are done, but I would figure that Mike Shanahan will get them to play a really good game here. On the road at a rival and I'm not sold that the Cowboys are going to play great every week under Jason Garrett. The Skins win on the road.

Detroit (+6) over TAMPA BAY: This is my upset of the week. The Lions are awful on the road, but I refuse to think that the Bucs are going to win out and or win 10 games. They are a young team that is due for a stinker and here it is: Lions-16 Bucs-13

BALTIMORE (-1) over New Orleans: The Saints have won 6 in a row and at 10-3 look like Super Bowl contenders again. They are due for a stinker as well and this is a tough spot for them in Baltimore. Look for the Ravens to win in what should be a really fun game to watch.

SEATTLE (+7) over Atlanta: The Falcons are pretty much locked in for the 1 seed in NFC. They get New Orleans at home the day after Christmas, so they could be looking past the Seahawks this week. I'll take Seattle in an upset at home.

NY Jets (+6) over PITTSBURGH: If the Jets have any guts and balls, they will win this game. They can attack the Steelers by spreading them out because they will not be able to run the ball. Big Ben is gimping around, and I just have a feeling the Jets will get it done this week on the road-where they are better anyway. The Jets right the ship with all the pressure and win a huge game in Heinz Field.

Green Bay (+11) over NEW ENGLAND: Obviously, Aaron Rodgers status could affect this game, but I like the Packers to at least keep it close in Foxboro. The Pats are rolling and are making my Super Bowl pick look good, but the Packers could keep this game competitive.

Chicago (-3) over MINNESOTA: It doesn't matter where this game is played, the Bears will win because the Vikings have no QB now that Brett Favre will be out of action indefinitely. It will be cool to see the Vikes play a home game outdoors though.

OAKLAND (-6) over Denver: TEBOW!!!! TEBOW!!!! TEBOW!!!!!

Final Score: Raiders-52- Denver-17

Thoughts on Broncos-Cards, TNF Pick, and Power Rankings

Here are some of my thoughts on the Broncos-Cardinals game after I watched over last night........

1) Eric Decker did a nice job on kick returns. Although one was called back, he really did a good job on returns. I like Decker as a receiver too, and I really hope the new regime sticks with him and gives him a chance next season.
2) The Broncos defense flat out quit in the second half. Their defense quit, and they just looked like they wanted the game to end and go home. We know the defense needs a complete overhaul, but I would hope they would address the following in the draft: DE, ILB, CB, Safety in that order.
3) Kyle Orton was flat out awful and has put two of the worst weeks ever by a QB the last two games. I'm done watching Orton in Denver, and I really hope he is traded to Buffalo, Carolina, or even Cleveland next year for some extra draft picks.
4) Knowshon Moreno has played pretty well down the stretch and usually gets over 100 total yards, and he might actually have a chance at 1,000 yards on the season.
5) The Broncos just made so many mistakes-penalties and turnovers- that this game could have been won, but they continually just shoot themselves in the foot. That's what happens when you are 3-10, and the Broncos look like a 3-10 team.
6) Jay Feely scored a touchdown on a fake field goal and scored for Arizona. How many times can our special teams kill us in the last two years? SD ran a fake punt that changed the game on MNF, Eddie Royal had a potential punt return touchdown called back against SF, and now this debacle in Arizona. Special Teams coach Mike Priefer should be the first one out the door when the new regime takes over.
7) The Broncos head to Oakland to take on the 6-7 Raiders. Kyle Orton will start, but let's hope he gets injured and Tim Tebow gets a shot.

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL PICK:
San Francisco (+9) over SAN DIEGO: The Niners could actually lose this week and win the NFC West at 7-9. This game could be tricky for the Chargers. I expect them to win the game, but look for SF to keep it close.

NFL POWER POLL ENTERING WEEK 14
AFC

LEGIT SUPER BOWL CONTENDERS
1-New England
2-Pittsburgh
LEGIT PLAYOFF TEAMS
3-Baltimore
4-San Diego
5-INDY
6-KC
7-Jacksonville
8-NY Jets
ON THE BUBBLE
9-Miami
10-Cleveland
11-Oakland
FADING AWAY
12-Houston
13-Tennessee
ON THE CLOCK
14-Buffalo
15-Denver
16-Cincy

NFC
LEGIT SUPER BOWL TEAMS
1-Atlanta
2-Philly
3-NY Giants
4-New Orleans
LEGIT PLAYOFF TEAMS
5-Chicago
6-Green Bay
7-Tampa Bay
ON THE BUBBLE BECAUSE OF CIRCUMSTANCE
8-St.Louis
9-Seattle
10-San Francisco
FADING FAST
11-Minnesota
12-Washington
ON THE CLOCK
13-Dallas
14-Detroit
15-Arizona
16-Carolina

PLEASE START TIM TEBOW!!!

After Denver's brutal 43-13 loss at the hands of hapless Cardinals on Sunday in Arizona, everyone in Bronco country is wondering when the Broncos are going to start Tim Tebow at QB. Eric Studesville, I will refer to him at Stupidsville now, said on Monday that Denver will again start Kyle Orton at QB. This is the worst decision possible for the Broncos at this point in their dreadful season. Coach Stupidsville just sealed his ticket out of town in my regard. Why does Kyle Orton need to start? You are 3-10 and their is no hope left in the season. Why not give Tim Tebow a chance to start? There is nothing to lose at all. Just come out and say that Kyle Orton played pretty well this year, this is not anything related to his play, but the Broncos need to assess their future. Sometimes a team needs a spark or a changeup. By changing the QB of the team, that is one way to provide that spart. One of the ways to assess their future is to start their first round QB in a the midst of a meaningless season. The only thing I can think of is that A) They don't want to start Tebow on the road in Oakland or B) Tebow is such a project and so far behind that they don't think he is even ready to take the field this season at all. Both of those suggestions don't work for me. There is nothing left to watch in the rest of the 2010 Denver Broncos season. The only thing any Bronco fan wants to see is Tim Tebow. No one wants to see Orton trot out there anymore. In fact, I am hoping this is the last we have to endure of Kyle Orton ever. Just start Tebow please! If the Broncos don't plan to start Tebow in Week 16 at home vs. Houston, then the Bronco fans should boycott Invesco. That's right just don't show up. Make a statement. Give us something different. We've seen Orton and we've seen this Bronco team enough and the results are flat out awful. Give Tebow a chance. For the first time in over two years, make the right decision: Play Tebow Now!!!! If they don't, then no one has any clue what the hell they are doing in Denver. It has to be Tebow Time and it has to be now.

Week 13 Picks and McDaniels Fallout

Here are some of my last thoughts on the Josh McDaniels Era in Denver..............


1) I agree with Michael Lombardi's take on that McDaniels will learn from this and probably be a better head coach the next time he gets a top job. The aspect of Lombardi's column, and I love everything Lombardi writes, that I don't agree with is the fact that McDaniels wanted to bring the Patriot Way to Denver, and the Broncos can't win with the Bronco Way. Look, the Patriot Way only works well when you have Tom Brady at QB and Bill Belichick at HC. Denver was very successful doing things the Bronco Way for a long time. Only the last five years have they hit the skids, and they still should have been in the playoffs three out of those last five years. Obviously, every team would love to build through the draft, develop your own players, and avoid overspending for free agents. It is easier to do that when you have a QB like Tom Brady at the helm. The Broncos do need to change their personnel department and avoid giving the Head Coach all of the responsibility on personnel. It started to crumble under Mike Shanhan and it didn't work out with McDaniels.


2) Yes, the Broncos are a mess right now, and the team that McDaniels inherited two years ago was better then the team he left us right now. The Broncos job is far less attractive now then it was when you had Jay Cutler at QB and Brandon Marshall out wide. The Broncos could be in the midst of a stretch where they are comparable to the Lions, Bills, and Bengals for years to come.


3) Just because McDaniels is gone doesn't mean that the Tim Tebow era is done. You would think that the new coach would at least give Tebow a chance to fight for the job and develop him. If Tebow is legit, then this rebuilding process becomes a lot easier for the new staff. If the new coach doesn't like him, then this process could be longer than any fan wants. Also, who the hell knows who will be the Broncos starting QB in 2011. It could be Kyle Orton, Tim Tebow or someone that we drafted (Andrew Luck or Cam Newton) or traded for (Kevin Kolb or Carson Palmer).


4) The Spygate scandal really did McDaniels in. He might have had a chance to stay on for a third year, but once the Spygate story broke, you knew he was done. If the Jay Cutler trade defined his legacy, then the Spygate was the final nail in the coffin.


5) If McDaniels was given a third year, I would not have been so mad-only if Tebow was in the mix for the starting spot. Maybe Pat Bowlen pulled the trigger on the McDaniels Era one year too early, but many people must have felt that McDaniels couldn't get this thing turned around in one year.


6) Now that McDaniels is gone, the Broncos and their fans must move on. The Broncos admitted that they gave McD too much control, and the Broncos need to find a real GM-type and find an experienced head coach to move this organization in the right direction.








Here are my picks for Week 13......





Last Week's Record: 8-8


Overall Record: 103-82-8


(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)



Indy (-3) over TENNESSEE: I'm going to stick with Peyton Manning and the Colts another week. They are 6-6 and Manning is playing the worst football since his rookie year. I still think they will win the divison somehow, and the Jeff Fisher Era might be coming to an end in Nashville.





JACKSONVILLE (-3) over Oakland: The Jags might take this battle for the AFC South to the very end. They play better at home, and Maurice Jones Drew might be a MVP candidate. The Raiders won last week at San Diego, but everytime you trust the Raiders, they always lay an egg. Plus, remember Jason Campbell is their QB. That's all I need to know for this week. I'll take the Jags.





Cincy (+9) over PITTSBURGH: The Bengals have lost nine in a row, but they will snap that streak at some point these last four weeks. For some reason, I see this game being close. The Steelers might be facing a letdown after their big win in Baltimore last week. The Steelers will win, but it will be closer then expected.





CHICAGO (+4) over New England: The Bears will move the ball on the Pats secondary. The Bears defense will be the key against the Pats versatile attack. Tom Brady is my MVP for the 2010 season, and this could actually be a Super Bowl preview. This looks like a field goal game either way.





Cleveland (+1) over BUFFALO: If Jake Delhomme starts, then I will switch my pick. Otherwise, the Browns should get to 6-7 with a win in Buffalo this week.





MINNESOTA (+3) over New York Giants: I am willing to go with the Vikings at home. This is a tough game to call because two weeks ago this game would have been a lock for the Giants. Now, the Vikings have fired Brad Childress and won two in a row for Leslie Frazier. Who knows what Vikings teams shows up, but I'll take them at home.





DETROIT (+7) over Green Bay: This is my upset special of the week. Drew Stanton might actually be able to do something with this offense. The Lions have been close at times the last few weeks at home, and this week they pull the shocker at home.





CAROLINA (+7) over Atlanta: Atlanta is due for a letdown on the road. They will get the win but this will be closer.





WASHINGTON (+3) over Tampa Bay: The Bucs are the better team, but I just see the Redskins righting the ship for one week. The Bucs playoff hopes take a spill this week.





St.Louis (+9) over NEW ORLEANS: I'm not sold that the Saints are on their way to another Super Bowl run. The Rams are much improved, but they aren't ready for primetime. I see the Rams playing well this week despite that. The Saints will win, but this game will be a tight one.



Seattle (+6) over SAN FRANCISCO: Another NFC West matchup where I have no idea who will win. I'll take the Seahawks on the road.



NY JETS (-5) over Miami: The Jets should play their best game of the season after getting waxed by the Pats on Monday Night 45-3. The key word is should. We will see what the Jets are made of these next four weeks, but I expect them to show up and play well on Sunday.



SAN DIEGO (-3) over Kansas City: Matt Cassel might not play this week, but even if the Chiefs lose, they still have a chance to win the division. They are two games up with four to play on the Chargers and the Raiders, and KC finishes at St.Louis, home versus Tennessee and Oakland. The Chargers need to make up ground this week and they will.



DALLAS (+4) over Philly: This is my hunch game of the week. The NFC East is going to come down to the final week.

Baltimore (-3) over HOUSTON: The Ravens get back on track this week in Houston on MNF.

Denver (-3) over Arizona: The Eric Studesville Era gets off to a rousing start with a road win in Arizona.
Final Score: Denver-23 Arizona-17

McDaniels Era Over in Denver

Pat Bowlen relieved Josh McDaniels of his coaching duties on Monday following the team's 10-6 loss at Kansas City on Sunday. The loss dropped the Broncos to 3-9 on the season. McDaniels finished with an overall record of 11-17 in Denver. The Broncos have promoted interim coach Eric Studesville for the remainder of the four games. The move to fire McDaniels is not surprising, but the timing of it is interesting. Pat Bowlen obviously felt that a change was needed and he needed to make the change now. The Broncos are in a tailspin, and the organization is at its' lowest point in a long, long time- certianly my lifetime circa 1979. Where the Broncos go from here is anyone's guess. Pat Bowlen is just as responsible for the decline of this team as anyone else. Bowlen needs to refocus and restructure his organization. He needs to find a quality front office football executive. That person must have a strong voice in the player personnel department (Free Agency, Draft, Trades), and then Bowlen has to select the right man for the head coaching job. That man should be one who has some head coaching experience. Of course a wish list of head coaches should start with names like Jon Gruden, Bill Cowher, Jeff Fisher (If available from Tennessee), andTony Sparano (If available from Miami). The Broncos could also look into the coaching ranks at someone like Jim Harbaugh from Stanford. Troy Calhoun from Air Force has already been mentioned as a potential candidate because of his ties to the Broncos from earlier this decade under Mike Shanahan. Bowlen should stay away from the "Hot Assistant." Don't bother with Rob Ryan, Jason Garrett, Leslie Frazier, Perry Fewell, and coaches of that nature. The next head coach in Denver has to be a homerun or else the Broncos will quickly be mentioned in the same NFL atmosphere as the Bills and the Lions.

As far as McDaniels goes, I have to be honest I did like the hire of him in Denver. I really defended him a lot, and I thought he was going to be a solid HC in Denver. I wouldn't have minded if they gave him another year, but I understand why Bowlen fired him. The Spygate Part II scandal sealed McD's fate, and there was no turning back for the fans after that all came out. He was given the keys to the franchise at 32, and he made questionable move after questionable move. The trades of Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall, and Peyton Hillis really sent fans over the edge, and his other personnel mistakes (Alphonso Smith and Laurence Maroney) didn't help his tenure in the Mile High City. Unfortunately, it didn't work out for McDaniels and he will probably end up being an OC for a team in the near future-something that we at least know he is good at. I do feel sorry for McDaniels because as a coach you hate to see someone lose their job, but the NFL is a rough business and the fact that the Broncos were 5-17 after going 6-0 in 2009 made it a relatively easy decision on the part of the Broncos braintrust. McDaniels legacy in Denver was always going to be tied to the Cutler trade, and that is where is downfall really began.

As I said after Shanahan got fired in 2008, I stated that the the Broncos will rise up again , and turn this thing around, but the question is: Does Pat Bowlen know how to do that?

Playoff Resolution and Week 12 Picks!

The NFL hits Week 12, and all weekend you are going to hear or see graphics that show who is in the playoffs, who is out of the playoffs, and where each team is seeded. Here is some advice: Take it all with a grain of salt. So much can change in the playoff picture the last five weeks. One week a team can be slotted as the one seed, and the next week they lose and they are a six seed. I admit that is fun to try and figure out the playoff seedings and matchups, but you can't get too wrapped up into it because it will change so much from now until the final game in Week 17. The question that keeps getting raised is that should the NFC West winner host the playoff game? Eventhough that winner might only have an 8-8 or 7-9 record, they will host the game over a wildcard team with at least 10 or 11 wins. Does it seem fair? No, but that is the system that was created. Divisions matter in the NFL, and I don't think that a division winner should go on the road and face a wildcard team with a better record. If anything it adds a little more intrigue to that matchup. For instance, if Seattle wins the NFC West at 8-8 and hosts 11-5 New Orleans in the first round is that the end of the world? Sure the Saints will be favored, but at least there is somewhat of a chance that Seattle will give them a good game for awhile-especially with the crowd that Seattle plays in front of. If New Orleans hosted the Seahawks, then that game is a complete wash out and non-factor. Look, if you win your division you host a playoff game. Forget about the records. It is not the Seahawks or Rams fault that they play in the NFC West. It is not their fault that the Saints couldn't beat out Atlanta for the NFC South crown. The divisions matter in the NFL, so that's why I have no problem with it and it shouldn't be changed.


Now, if anything needs to be changed about the NFL playoff format, then there is one suggestion that I think needs to be made: ADD ANOTHER PLAYOFF TEAM. Think about it. The NFL is suggesting adding 18 games to the schedule, so it could generate more revenue. Here is a way to generate more revenue:


1) Add an extra wildcard team to the playoffs in each conference.


2) The number one team in each conference gets a bye into the divisional round.


3) The number two seed hosts a wildcard game against the 7th seed, and the rest of the games go as it does now: 3 hosts 6 and 4 hosts 5.


4) You are not really diluting the playoff field because now only 14 of the 32 teams make the playoffs, and that is still less then half the league.


5) You can eliminate situations where an 8-8 team makes the playoffs because they are in a bad division, and an 11-5 or 10-6 team misses the playoffs because they are stuck in a really competitive division.


6) The NFL can now have a tripleheader on Saturday and Sunday of wildcard weekend. You can have games at 1:00pm EST, 4:30pm EST, and 8:00pm EST.


7) The League can then get an outside bidder to bid on these playoff games (TNT, TBS, or Versus) to add more money to the television revenue. If they want to keep the games in house, then ESPN could get two of the games (Say the two afternoon slots on Saturday) at a higher price then they paid for the NFL games before. Either way you are increasing the amount of revenue for any network to show these games. Plus, owners are making more money becaus one extra team makes the playoffs, and the number two seed gets an extra home game.





If this scenario was in place last year, here is how the playoffs would have looked:





AFC


7) Houston at 2)San Diego


6)Baltimore at 3) New England


5) Jets at 4) Cincy





NFC


7) Atlanta at 2) Minnesota


6) Philly at 3) Dallas


5) Green Bay at 4) Arizona





You could have set it up like this:





Saturday


1:00pm-ESPN- Jets at Cincy


4:00pm-ESPN-Houston at San Diego


8:00pm-NBC-Philly at Dallas





Sunday


1:00pm-CBS-Baltimore at NE


4:00pm-FOX-Green Bay at Arizona


8:00pm-NBC-Atlanta at Minnesota





Forget the 18 game schedule, you need to just add two more playoff teams and the NFL would be all set for going forward and expanding their product. The revenue will increase and everyone-owners, fans, players- will be happy.





Here are the picks for Week 12...........



Last Week's Record: (7-7-2)

This Week's Record: (1-0-0)

Overall Record: (97-74-8)

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)





Buffalo (+6) over MINNESOTA: It is hard to tell what kind of team the Vikings are going to be the rest of the way, but you would have to expect them to have a let down one week. The Bills play hard every week, and they are just a few plays away from being a 5-6 team. The Bills go on the road this week, and they might not win, but they will make it interesting for most of the game.



MIAMI (-4) over Cleveland: I'm not sure if Colt McCoy will play for the Browns, but if he doesn't play, then this game is a slam dunk for the Fish. Watch out for the Dolphins. Everyone counted them out after their loss to the Bears two weeks ago. They got a big road win at Oakland last week. The Fish get to 7-5 after this win at home.



TENNESSEE (-3) over Jacksonville: The Titans get Kerry Collins back this week from injury. They have lost four in a row, but this week they will break through and get the win at home over the Jags. Jacksonville has really overachieved this year, but this is a tough game for them. Look for the Titans to get to 6-6.



Washington (+7) over NY GIANTS: The Giants are all banged up on the offensive side of the ball, and you really don't know what to expect from the Redskins. The Skins are up and down all year long, but they still are a dangerous team for the G-Men. At 5-6, the Redskins are not dead yet, and this game just feels like it is a field goal game. I'll take the Skins outright 19-16.



DETROIT (+6) over Chicago: I'll take the Lions and the points this week at home. Detroit has been competitive all year long, and there is no reason to think they won't play well this week. The Bears come in flying with a four game win streak. I don't trust Lovie Smith, Jay Cutler or the Bears yet, so the Lions pull off an upset at home.



GREEN BAY (-7) over San Francisco: It would be a shame if the Packers don't make the playoffs this year. They are a really fun team to watch. SF comes in at 4-7 and in the thick of the NFC West title hunt. This smells like a rout and expect the Packers to take of business early.


CINCY (+7) over New Orleans: The Saints are 8-3, and they are looking to make their move in the NFC South. I think they will have trouble on the road this week. This is the Bengals Super Bowl. They have lost 7 straight games. The Bengals will push the Saints to limit this week, and they might even win it outright.

TAMPA BAY (+3) over Atlanta: The Falcons are 9-2 and are the number one team in NFC, but they are due for an off week. The Bucs play hard and despite their lack of talent, they are very tough competitive. They played the Falcons shot for shot a few weeks ago, and this game will be no different. Take the home underdog in this one.

Oakland (+13) over SAN DIEGO: The Chargers are rolling at 6-5, and everyone believes that they are making their run again in the AFC West. Although that seems very likely, I have a feeling they are in for a letdown one of these weeks. The Raiders beat them the first meeting in which they blocked two SD punts. This will be a closer game then expected, and if the Raiders get any kind of quality play out of QB Jason Campbell, they could pull an upset. This game will be closer then a lot of people expect.

SEATTLE (-5) over Carolina: You would have to think the Seahawks get back on track this week against the one win Panthers. Seattle should win this game by at least a touchdown.

INDY (-5) over Dallas: The Colts might be getting some injured players back this week. They are not losing three in a row and two straight at home, no matter how banged up they are. The Cowboys are playing better for interim HC Jason Garrett. This could be a good game for awhile, but I'll take the Colts and Peyton Manning at home to get to 7-5.

St.Louis (-3) over ARIZONA: I just can't figure the NFC West teams out when they play each other. I'll take the Rams with Sam Bradford this week to get to 6-6. We are getting closer to the epic SNF finale between the 7-8 Rams and the 7-8 Seahawks for the NFC West title.

Pittsburgh (+3) over BALTIMORE: This is the first of two huge AFC matchups this weekend. This is the first one on SNF. The games between the Steelers and Ravens are always bloodbaths. Baltimore won the first meeting 17-14 late, but the Steelers didn't have Big Ben. I know the Steelers are hurting on the offensive line, but they will make enough plays to win this game on the road. Call it 23-20 Steelers.

New York Jets (+3) over NEW ENGLAND: The second huge AFC matchup is on MNF this week. All signs point to a Patriots win: They lost their first matchup to the Jets in Week 2, they are at home, Tom Brady is playing lights out, Bill Belichick will make adjustments on defense, and the Pats are looking for revenge. I just have a sneaking suspicion that the Jets will get the win this week. Both teams are 9-2, but the Pats have more wins over quality opponents. The Jets have struggled to beat some really poor teams. Both teams will move the ball on each other, but I just keep thinking that this might be the Jets year. They have had all the breaks fall their way, and this week they will get another. Jets-28 Pats-27.


KANSAS CITY (-8) over Denver: The Broncos are 3-8 and nothing would be better then to have them spoil the Chiefs' year. After completely destroying KC 49-29 a few weeks ago, Denver and their embattled Head Coach, Josh McDaniels, come in reeling. The Chiefs are very tough at home, and they got a big road win last week in Seattle. The Chiefs and Todd Haley want revenge on Denver for what happened in that game in Denver. The Chiefs want blood this week and they might get it. I see the Chiefs jumping out to a big lead-say 10-0 or 14-3 early. Denver will stabilize the game, but the Chiefs will pull away late to bury the Broncos and put McDaniels' future with the team in jeopardy.
Final Score: Chiefs:34 Denver:13

Thursday Night Pick

Here is my Thursday Night Pick...........

PHILLY (-6) over Houston: I can see this game being close because it seems like every game on TNF is close for a while, but the Eagles should do enough to win this game. Mike Vick should have a field day using all of his weapons on the Texans' sieve of a pass defense. Houston can score, and they will move the ball on the Eagles, but look for Philly, especially Vick, to bounce back and get the win tonight.

Lombardi's Take on McDaniels Situation

The best NFL anlyst out there is Michael Lombardi. It is common knowledge that Lombardi is a big fan of Josh McDaniels, and he has done a lot of reporting from Denver this past year, and he seems to been connected with McDaniels and his regime in Denver. Here is Lombardi's latest column from NFL.com regarding McDaniels and his tenous hold on the Broncos Head Coaching job:

Another videotaping scandal hit the NFL last week, this time from the Denver Broncos but with some of the same folks associated with the New England Patriots controversy of 2007.
Broncos videographer Steve Scarnecchia, formerly of the Patriots and director of video operations for the Jets in 2007, taped a six-minute walk-through of the San Francisco 49ers when the teams played last month in London. Broncos coach Josh McDaniels, himself a member of New England's coaching staff in 2007, has been cleared after an investigation from the league office determined Scarnecchia acted alone. McDaniels' guilt was in his reluctance to immediately report the taping.

But let's be real. The perception lingers and memories of "Spygate" come storming back, in part, because McDaniels and Scarnecchia were associated with the scandal -- although on opposite ends.
For McDaniels, this has been a rough second year with the Broncos. It started with the loss for the season of his best player, outside linebacker Elvis Dumervil, before the campaign began, and Denver has not been able to recover. When it rains, it pours.
The last thing McDaniels needed during this horrific season was to be accused of spying on opponents. And now he must be sitting in his office wondering if his owner supports him or if his time in Denver is coming to an abrupt end.
With Broncos fans anxious about their team and concerned about the qualifications of their young head coach, owner Pat Bowlen talked exclusively with Thomas George of AOL Fanhouse, and he issued several strong statements of support of his coach, saying: "I'm not interested in making a change." When asked if McDaniels would be back for 2011, Bowlen responded: "Yes, he will."

Some two hours later, the Broncos released a written statement that seemed to change the tone of Bowlen's endorsement of McDaniels.
"This has been a very trying and disappointing season for all of us," Bowlen said in the statement. "We haven't had the success we had hoped to achieve. Josh McDaniels is the head coach of the Broncos, and you always strive for stability at that position. However, with five games left in the 2010 season, we will continue to monitor the progress of the team and evaluate what's in the best interest of this franchise."
This new statement was pointless, because everyone knows that a public display of support is meaningless, especially after recently fired Wade Phillips and Brad Childress were given votes of confidence from their owners days before their termination. So why did the Broncos feel the need to readjust their original position? These are strange times in Denver, for sure.
If McDaniels is to lose his job, it should not happen because the guy he chose to be his videographer made a huge mistake, or because McDaniels made another blunder by not promptly turning in his friend. With the Broncos 3-8, Bowlen has to decide if McDaniels is qualified to be his head coach -- today, tomorrow and next year.

When the Broncos hired McDaniels, they had to expect some turbulent times. They had to expect their bright, young coach would have to endure adversity as he learned how to be a head coach. Denver gave him the power to build the team in the style of his choosing, and if the Broncos were to change coaches now, it would set the franchise back and force adoption of an entirely new philosophy.

Years of bad drafts and poor free-agent signings hurt the Broncos before McDaniels became head coach. Running Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall out of town probably didn't help. And McDaniels is paying a price for all of these moves, much like Mike Shanahan, the former coach of the Broncos, is paying for all the Redskins' poor drafts and wasteful spending.
Clearly, McDaniels had a good, young quarterback in Cutler to build around -- maybe not in the style he wanted, but Cutler was talented. However, there was a communication problem between them, and nobody in the organization forced McDaniels to work with Cutler. Sometimes a coach needs to be told from above that he needs to work around problems, become more open in his thinking and not try to solve every problem by eliminating the player.
There is always going to be a learning curve when you hire young talent, in any profession, and if you don't have the stomach to handle the tough times, then going young is not a good idea.

Yet organizations must have support systems in place for a young coach, to ensure all the right questions are being asked before each move is made. It's hard for many in the NFL to understand that questioning a move or a decision is healthy -- it's not disloyal. Hearing a different point of view allows those making decisions to see things in a different light.
Remember, if everyone is thinking alike, then no one is thinking. Oftentimes coaches who want full control struggle with the difference between disloyalty and honesty, and that always hurts the organization.
Bowlen, in his interview with AOL Fanhouse, seemed to understand that these are trying times for McDaniels and seemed willing to set aside the latest controversy and evaluate his coach while allowing him time to grow. Yet the written statement seems to indicate that the McDaniels era is coming to an end in Denver.
I sincerely hope Bowlen evaluates McDaniels after the season to see whether his coach has grown and can continue to learn on the job -- and where he might be with some help and more seasoning.