There is nothing better than putting up your Christmas lights, cranking up the fireplace, and watching big, late-season games in the NFL. It is also an extra treat if your team is fighting not only for a playoff spot but for seeding and home playoff games. As a Broncos fan, it was something that you were accustomed to with the John Elway Era Broncos. It hasn't been that way since Elway retired. Yes, the Mike Shanahan Era provided plenty of years where the Broncos were fighting for a playoff spot, but nothing has been compared to this year with the Peyton Manning-led Broncos. In the Elway years, the Broncos were positioning themselves for home-field advantage and playoff seeding. That is what this year feels like. The Broncos are 8-3, lead the AFC West, and are riding a six-game winning streak. They can actually clinch the AFC West with a win this week at home against Tampa Bay, and there are still games left to play that will enable them to gain a valuable playoff seed. We know that nothing is guaranteed for the Broncos at this point, but just to have this opportunity at this point in the season is special. Throw in the holidays as a backdrop, and you get to have some fun the next month with the Broncos. It is a fun time of the year, and having your team fighting for a playoff berth makes it so much better. Onto the picks for Week 13....
Last Week's Record: 7-8-1
Overall Record: 77-89-8
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)
Seattle (+4) over CHICAGO: The Seahawks really suck on the road, and we know that is a big problem for them, but they are due for a big road win. They got screwed last week with a really bad roughing the passer call last week against Miami with a 14-7 lead and a turnover in the endzone. This week they travel to Chicago, and no one expects them to win this tough matchup. I love the matchup with the Seattle defense against that porous Bears offensive line. I think the Seahawks find a way to win this game, and it starts with their defense.
GREEN BAY (-7) over Minnesota: I know the Packers looked bad on Sunday night in their loss agains the Giants, but they will take care of business at home against the Vikings. At 6-5, the Vikings are dangerous, but I don't like what I see from Christian Ponder. Take the Packers to get back on track with a big home win.
San Francisco (-6) over ST.LOUIS: Give Jim Harbaugh credit for going with Colin Kaepernick and putting Alex Smith back on the bench. I expect Kaepernick to have a rough game one of these weeks, but the Niners have too much for the Rams this week, and Kaepernick keeps the run going.
NY JETS (-4) over Arizona: The Jets were utterly disgraceful against the Pats on Thanksgiving night, but they get a gift this week with the Cardinals coming to town. The Jets will overwhelm the Cards and their putrid offense at home this week. If the Jets lose, then heads might roll, but they will win easily.
KANSAS CITY (+4) over Carolina: The Chiefs played hard in their loss to Denver last week, and I think they will find a way to win their second game of the season this week. Kansas City is due for win at Arrowhead, and I think they get it this week.
DETROIT (-4) over Indy: The Lions are a mess, and they blew so many chances to beat the Texans on Thanksgiving. I'm nervous about this game because I can see the Colts winning this game by a touchdown, but the Lions will find a way to exploit the Colts secondary with Calvin Johnson. It is a tough game to call, but take the Lions at home.
BUFFALO (-5) over Jacksonville: Chad Henne has proven how bad Blaine Gabbert actually was for the Jags. They have been competitive since Henne took over for Gabbert. The Bills lost another tough game last week at Indy, and they have disappointed me a lot this year. They will do enough to win this game by at least a touchdown this week.
MIAMI (+9) over New England: The Patriots look like the best team in the AFC, but this game could be tricky. History has shown that home underdogs getting a lot of points is a safe bet, and I'll take the Dolphins to keep this game closer than people think.
Houston (-6) over TENNESSEE: The Texans will definitely get the #1 seed in the AFC. A win here over the Titans will help them get there, and I just can't see the Titans covering in this spot.
Pittsburgh (+8) over BALTIMORE: Big Ben is out, and the Ravens will most likely win this game, but Baltimore just doesn't blow people out. Everyone expects a big Ravens win over the Steelers this week, but I'll take the points and bet that Pittsburgh will keep it close.
Cleveland (PICK) over Oakland: The Raiders have fallen apart-especially on defense. The Browns have at least been feisty at times this year, and I think they will win this game on the road. The Raiders needed this year just to evaluate and find a way to rebuild this franchise from the ground up. Take the Browns to win it.
SAN DIEGO (+3) over Cincy: Why do I keep picking the Chargers? They have failed miserably this year, and Norv Turner is on his way out. For some reason, I am going to take San Diego to upset the surging Bengals. I know that Cincy is playing well, but look for a letdown from them this week out on the West Coast.
DALLAS (-9) over Philly: The Cowboys have been very disappointing this year, and their track record as a home favorite is pretty ugly. At 5-6, they are still in the wildcard mix in the NFC, and they are bound to cover one of these games at home as a heavy favorite.
WASHINGTON (+3) over New York Giants: I love this matchup. RG III is one of the most exciting players to watch in the league right now, and the last time these two teams played it was a thriller that the Giants won in New Jersey. This should be a fun one to watch, and I'll take the Skins to pull it out late and get themselves to 6-6.
Tampa Bay (+7) over DENVER: It is not easy to win two games in a row in the NFL, and the Broncos are currently riding a six game winning streak. At some point, a team is bound to have a stinker. Now, the surprising Bucs come to town at 6-5. Josh Freeman is a really talented quarterback, and Vincent Jackson scares the heck out of me. Throw in the Doug Martin factor, and the Bucs can move the ball on offense. This is a tough game for the Broncos, and I see it being a close one throughout. I can see the Bucs pulling this one out late.
Final Score: Tampa Bay-28 Denver-24
Friday, November 30, 2012
Wednesday, November 28, 2012
Week 13 Thursday Night Pick
ATLANTA (-3) over New Orleans: The Falcons should have won their earlier meeting a few weeks ago, and they will push the Saints to the brink of elimination with a big win in the Georgia Dome this Thursday.
Broncos Grind Out Win over Chiefs 17-9
There are no guarantees in the NFL. There are also no style points either. This is not college football. You don't need to impress the voters or computer rankings. As long as your team is on the winning side of the ledger, you have to be happy and move on to the next one. The Broncos 17-9 win over the Chiefs on Sunday was a perfect example of that view. The Broncos were double digit favorites on the road against a hapless, 1-9 team. It looked like it would be an easy Denver win, but it certainly didn't turn out that way. The Chiefs jumped to a 6-0 lead early, and after the Broncos took a 7-6 lead going into halftime, Kansas City was able to take a 9-7 lead late in the third quarter. Peyton Manning drove the Broncos down the field and hit Demaryius Thomas on a perfect 30-yard throw down the sideline to give the Broncos a 14-9 lead. After a drive in which the Broncos chewed up the clock, gained valuable first downs, and added a field goal to their lead, the Broncos took a 17-9 lead and eventually put the Chiefs away for good. It wasn't the prettiest, but it was a key victory for the Broncos, who now are riding a six-game winning streak to lead them to a 8-3 and sole possession of the AFC West. Divisional road games are never easy, and although this was a challenging game, the Broncos were able to do what they had to do. Here are my thoughts and observations on this week's game..........
1) The Chiefs looked fresh, fast, and ready to play to start the game off. On the other hand, the Broncos looked slow and tired in the first quarter. Jamaal Charles was able to find room against this Broncos rush defense, and the Chiefs ran the ball down the Broncos throats the first two series. Thankfully, the Broncos defense was able to get the red zone stops that they needed to make, and they forced the Chiefs into two field goals. Instead of maybe being down 14-0 or 10-0, the Broncos were only down two field goals. Those were two big stops.
2) For the third game in a row the Broncos offense started slow, and they didn't put together a great performance overall. Key drops once again killed a few drives, and Peyton Manning forced a deep ball into double coverage in the second quarter. The Broncos offense is not clicking on all cylinders right now, but when they need a big drive to kill the clock or get points, they are able to do just that. The offense was bottled up for most of the first half, but a great drive near the end of the half was capped off by a Peyton Manning to Jacob Tamme 7-yard touchdown pass to give Denver a 7-6 lead at halftime.
3) Matt Prater is also in a slump as well. He missed two field goals this week. The second miss was a big one because it was a chip shot (33 yards), and it would have given the Broncos a 10-6 lead.
4) The defense got gashed early on, and they had trouble covering Tony Moeaki in the first half, but the defense tightened up, and they were able to shut down the Chiefs and their conservative game plan. They only gave up the three field goals, and they were able to get the key stops at the key moment.
5) People were criticizing Romeo Crennel for not electing to go for two fourth and short situations deep in Denver territory in the first quarter. Although I was surprised that he didn't go for it in one of those situations, it is not like it was a slam dunk that they were going to get it. Denver's defense has a habit of getting chewed up on a series, but then they tighten up in critical downs. It is easy to criticize Crennel for his decisions, but you have to look at the other side as well.
6) How about the Knowshon Moreno sighting from Sunday? It was revealed that Moreno was actually going to start the game early on Sunday morning. Moreno rushed for 85 yards on 20 carries, and he added 26 yards on four catches. He looked fresh and he looked pretty good in the run game. I was happy for him, and I am looking forward to seeing him continue to get better every week. Maybe this will be a turning point in his young career.
7) The Broncos were playing their third road game in four weeks. Also, it was their third game in four weeks in the early time slot in the Eastern or Central time zone. You could tell the Broncos were tired and flat. It looked like their third road game in four weeks, but they were able to settle down and eventually win a tough game on the road against a division rival.
8) At 8-3, the Broncos have a commanding lead in the AFC West. The Chargers are in second place with a 4-7 record. It would have to take the Broncos to suffer one of the all-time worst collapses in sports history for their stranglehold on this division to disappear. The key thing here is that the Broncos can actually clinch the AFC West with a win at home this week against the Bucs. It would be fitting to see them clinch the division with a big win at home on Sunday. Last year the Broncos clinched the AFC West after losing a brutal game to the Chiefs on the final day only because the Raiders lost to the Chargers. It wasn't the celebration that you would expect from a team who just won a division, and it was the true definition of anti-climatic. It sure would be sweet to get a nice win at home against Tampa Bay, and celebrate the division title the right way.
1) The Chiefs looked fresh, fast, and ready to play to start the game off. On the other hand, the Broncos looked slow and tired in the first quarter. Jamaal Charles was able to find room against this Broncos rush defense, and the Chiefs ran the ball down the Broncos throats the first two series. Thankfully, the Broncos defense was able to get the red zone stops that they needed to make, and they forced the Chiefs into two field goals. Instead of maybe being down 14-0 or 10-0, the Broncos were only down two field goals. Those were two big stops.
2) For the third game in a row the Broncos offense started slow, and they didn't put together a great performance overall. Key drops once again killed a few drives, and Peyton Manning forced a deep ball into double coverage in the second quarter. The Broncos offense is not clicking on all cylinders right now, but when they need a big drive to kill the clock or get points, they are able to do just that. The offense was bottled up for most of the first half, but a great drive near the end of the half was capped off by a Peyton Manning to Jacob Tamme 7-yard touchdown pass to give Denver a 7-6 lead at halftime.
3) Matt Prater is also in a slump as well. He missed two field goals this week. The second miss was a big one because it was a chip shot (33 yards), and it would have given the Broncos a 10-6 lead.
4) The defense got gashed early on, and they had trouble covering Tony Moeaki in the first half, but the defense tightened up, and they were able to shut down the Chiefs and their conservative game plan. They only gave up the three field goals, and they were able to get the key stops at the key moment.
5) People were criticizing Romeo Crennel for not electing to go for two fourth and short situations deep in Denver territory in the first quarter. Although I was surprised that he didn't go for it in one of those situations, it is not like it was a slam dunk that they were going to get it. Denver's defense has a habit of getting chewed up on a series, but then they tighten up in critical downs. It is easy to criticize Crennel for his decisions, but you have to look at the other side as well.
6) How about the Knowshon Moreno sighting from Sunday? It was revealed that Moreno was actually going to start the game early on Sunday morning. Moreno rushed for 85 yards on 20 carries, and he added 26 yards on four catches. He looked fresh and he looked pretty good in the run game. I was happy for him, and I am looking forward to seeing him continue to get better every week. Maybe this will be a turning point in his young career.
7) The Broncos were playing their third road game in four weeks. Also, it was their third game in four weeks in the early time slot in the Eastern or Central time zone. You could tell the Broncos were tired and flat. It looked like their third road game in four weeks, but they were able to settle down and eventually win a tough game on the road against a division rival.
8) At 8-3, the Broncos have a commanding lead in the AFC West. The Chargers are in second place with a 4-7 record. It would have to take the Broncos to suffer one of the all-time worst collapses in sports history for their stranglehold on this division to disappear. The key thing here is that the Broncos can actually clinch the AFC West with a win at home this week against the Bucs. It would be fitting to see them clinch the division with a big win at home on Sunday. Last year the Broncos clinched the AFC West after losing a brutal game to the Chiefs on the final day only because the Raiders lost to the Chargers. It wasn't the celebration that you would expect from a team who just won a division, and it was the true definition of anti-climatic. It sure would be sweet to get a nice win at home against Tampa Bay, and celebrate the division title the right way.
Friday, November 23, 2012
Week 12 Picks!
Another Thanksgiving has come and gone, and we now head into the weekend with some big games on tap for Week 12. Before we get to the picks, there are a few things about Thanksgiving Day games and following weekend that I would like to address. First, I have no problem keeping the tradition of the Lions and Cowboys both hosting the day games on Turkey Day. There are so many traditions that get thrown out, so we should be able to keep some traditions around. You need tradition on Thanksgiving-especially with football. It is sad to see a traditional Thanksgiving game in college like Texas-Texas A&M disappear because of the ridiculous conference realignment in the NCAA. I'm happy that the NFL has been able to keep the Lions and Cowboys as hosts during the day. I hope the league doesn't every decide to stray away from that. Also, the Thanksgiving Night game that was added in 2006 is a brilliant move. There is so much hustle and bustle going on during the day, and it is great to come home and look forward to a primetime game to finish off the holiday. Obviously, this year's game between the Pats and Jets was a blowout, but I loved the matchup going into the night. My only suggestion for Thanksgiving Night and the rest of the NFL games on that weekend is that the NFL should do everything in their power to have all divisional matchups, and to try and schedule as many rivalry games as possible that week. For example, this year we had Pats-Jets as the night game, so next year make it Steelers-Ravens. The year after that make it Broncos-Raiders, the next year could feature Philly-Giants and so on. Make that primetime game a big time rivalry game every year. Then, continue that divisional/rivalry setup for the games on Sunday. Include all division games and try to pit games involving those great rivalries every year. How great would it be to know that Thanksgiving weekend meant the Broncos and Chiefs would be playing every year? I know it hard to do because of the fact that one AFC team has to play the Cowboys or Lions every year on Thanksgiving, but you can still schedule at least 90% of the slate with divisional rivalries. It is definitely something that the league needs to look into. We need to insert more tradition back into a great football weekend. Now, onto the picks for Week 12.....
Last Week's Record: 7-5-2
Thanksgiving Record: 0-2-1
Overall Record: 70-83-8
(HOME TEAMS IN CAPS)
Oakland (+9) over CINCY: The Bengals have gotten themselves back into the playoff picture after winning two games in a row and are 5-5. They are definitely becoming a trendy pick to get the sixth seed in the AFC. This week the Raiders have come to town. Oakland is limping in at 3-7, and they have given up 55 and 38 points the last two weeks. How pumped are the Bengals fans after their recent resurgence and a chance to get revenge on Carson Palmer? They must be so excited because they didn't even sell out the game, and it will be blacked out in Cincy. The Raiders are a mess right now, and the Bengals will win, but I'm not laying nine points with them.
Pittsburgh (-1) over CLEVELAND: The Steelers are down to their third string quarterback as they have to dust off Charlie Batch for this week's game. I know the Browns could be dangerous in this one, but I can't shake the image of Brandon Weeden and Pat Shurmur trying to solve this Steelers defense. I'll take the Steelers laying only one point.
Buffalo (+3) over INDY: The Bills could actually make a move in this AFC playoff picture, and they can really get it going with a win over the Colts this week. The Bills moved the ball at will on the Pats two weeks ago, and I think they can exploit the Colts pass defense. Andrew Luck will move the ball on the Bills too, but look for a close game and a late win by the Bills on the road.
JACKSONVILLE (+4) over Tennessee: The Jags might have caught a break last week when Blaine Gabbert got hurt, and Chad Henne came in and light up the Texans for four touchdowns. The Jags are a hapless 1-9, but I have a feeling that they pull off the upset at home over the Titans.
CHICAGO (-3) over Minnesota: This is a tough game to call because it is unsure if Jay Cutler will play this week. The Bears offense was a non factor last week against the 49ers, but I don't think they will be that inept this week at home. The Vikings are dangerous, but take the Bears defense at home over the Vikes.
Atlanta (-1) over TAMPA BAY: The Bucs are red hot, and are now 6-4 and on the cusp of a wildcard berth. The Bucs are legitimate, but the Falcons will be able to find a way to win this game. Look for a late drive by Matt Ryan to win it by a field goal at the end.
Seattle (-3) over MIAMI: The Dolphins had faded badly, and now stand at 4-6. The book on Seattle is that they are great at home and bad on the road. This is the week that they shake off their road woes, and the Seahawks get a huge win on the road to get to 7-4.
Baltimore (-1) over SAN DIEGO: Normally, you would take the Chargers at this point because at 4-6 this is the week that they play well and beat a quality team. It has happened in the past, but this Chargers team is just not the same as it was in years past. The Ravens have been spotty at times this season, but they will take care of business on the road this week.
NEW ORLEANS (+1) over San Francisco: The Saints have battled their way to 5-5, and this game is fascinating. The Niners looked so good in their rout of the Bears last week, and they did it with backup QB Colin Kaepernick. He gets the start again this week, and I know that the Saints defense has been really bad at times this year, but I can see Kaepernick having a rough day. Tough game to call, but I see the Saints winning a close one in the dome.
St.Louis (+2) over ARIZONA: The Cards have completely fallen apart after their 4-0 start, and at 4-6 they now turn to QB Ryan Lindley. The Rams were really bad last week against the Jets, but look for Jeff Fisher and his team to rebound this week and take down the Cards on the road.
NY GIANTS (-3) over Green Bay: Great game for Sunday Night Football this week. The Packers come in red-hot at 7-3, and Aaron Rodgers looks like he is back to form after an inconsistent start. The Giants come in at 6-4 on the heels of two straight losses. This is when the Giants stand up. Everytime you count them out, they come back to win a close game. Look for the G-Men to continue that trend once again.
PHILLY(+3) over Carolina: What an awful Monday Night Football game this week. In August, this game looked great on paper. Cam Newton versus Mike Vick. An up and coming Carolina team against a perennial NFC power in Philadelphia. Now, the Eagles are a mess, Andy Reid is on his way out, Michael Vick is hurt, Cam Newton is having a bad season, and the Panthers are a disaster. I guess you go with the Eagles to win and somehow avoid a seventh straight loss.
KANSAS CITY (+10) over Denver: This game looks like a mismatch, but if you look deeper there are some things to worry about as a Broncos fan. First, the Broncos ALWAYS have trouble in Arrowhead-no matter who is the quarterback. Second, the Chiefs have not won a game at home this year, and they are due for a home win at some point. Third, you know how crazy the NFL can be. Last week the 1-8 Jags took the Texans to the limit in Houston. Lastly, I am very worried about how the loss of Willis McGahee will affect this Broncos offense. Denver's offense has not played well at all the last two games, and without McGahee I don't know if they will be able to run the ball at all with any effectiveness. McGahee's injury will also create problems in pass protection as well. The Broncos should win this game, but there are a lot of red flags out there in this game. It is not a slam dunk like many people believe.
Final Score: Chiefs-23 Broncos-21
Last Week's Record: 7-5-2
Thanksgiving Record: 0-2-1
Overall Record: 70-83-8
(HOME TEAMS IN CAPS)
Oakland (+9) over CINCY: The Bengals have gotten themselves back into the playoff picture after winning two games in a row and are 5-5. They are definitely becoming a trendy pick to get the sixth seed in the AFC. This week the Raiders have come to town. Oakland is limping in at 3-7, and they have given up 55 and 38 points the last two weeks. How pumped are the Bengals fans after their recent resurgence and a chance to get revenge on Carson Palmer? They must be so excited because they didn't even sell out the game, and it will be blacked out in Cincy. The Raiders are a mess right now, and the Bengals will win, but I'm not laying nine points with them.
Pittsburgh (-1) over CLEVELAND: The Steelers are down to their third string quarterback as they have to dust off Charlie Batch for this week's game. I know the Browns could be dangerous in this one, but I can't shake the image of Brandon Weeden and Pat Shurmur trying to solve this Steelers defense. I'll take the Steelers laying only one point.
Buffalo (+3) over INDY: The Bills could actually make a move in this AFC playoff picture, and they can really get it going with a win over the Colts this week. The Bills moved the ball at will on the Pats two weeks ago, and I think they can exploit the Colts pass defense. Andrew Luck will move the ball on the Bills too, but look for a close game and a late win by the Bills on the road.
JACKSONVILLE (+4) over Tennessee: The Jags might have caught a break last week when Blaine Gabbert got hurt, and Chad Henne came in and light up the Texans for four touchdowns. The Jags are a hapless 1-9, but I have a feeling that they pull off the upset at home over the Titans.
CHICAGO (-3) over Minnesota: This is a tough game to call because it is unsure if Jay Cutler will play this week. The Bears offense was a non factor last week against the 49ers, but I don't think they will be that inept this week at home. The Vikings are dangerous, but take the Bears defense at home over the Vikes.
Atlanta (-1) over TAMPA BAY: The Bucs are red hot, and are now 6-4 and on the cusp of a wildcard berth. The Bucs are legitimate, but the Falcons will be able to find a way to win this game. Look for a late drive by Matt Ryan to win it by a field goal at the end.
Seattle (-3) over MIAMI: The Dolphins had faded badly, and now stand at 4-6. The book on Seattle is that they are great at home and bad on the road. This is the week that they shake off their road woes, and the Seahawks get a huge win on the road to get to 7-4.
Baltimore (-1) over SAN DIEGO: Normally, you would take the Chargers at this point because at 4-6 this is the week that they play well and beat a quality team. It has happened in the past, but this Chargers team is just not the same as it was in years past. The Ravens have been spotty at times this season, but they will take care of business on the road this week.
NEW ORLEANS (+1) over San Francisco: The Saints have battled their way to 5-5, and this game is fascinating. The Niners looked so good in their rout of the Bears last week, and they did it with backup QB Colin Kaepernick. He gets the start again this week, and I know that the Saints defense has been really bad at times this year, but I can see Kaepernick having a rough day. Tough game to call, but I see the Saints winning a close one in the dome.
St.Louis (+2) over ARIZONA: The Cards have completely fallen apart after their 4-0 start, and at 4-6 they now turn to QB Ryan Lindley. The Rams were really bad last week against the Jets, but look for Jeff Fisher and his team to rebound this week and take down the Cards on the road.
NY GIANTS (-3) over Green Bay: Great game for Sunday Night Football this week. The Packers come in red-hot at 7-3, and Aaron Rodgers looks like he is back to form after an inconsistent start. The Giants come in at 6-4 on the heels of two straight losses. This is when the Giants stand up. Everytime you count them out, they come back to win a close game. Look for the G-Men to continue that trend once again.
PHILLY(+3) over Carolina: What an awful Monday Night Football game this week. In August, this game looked great on paper. Cam Newton versus Mike Vick. An up and coming Carolina team against a perennial NFC power in Philadelphia. Now, the Eagles are a mess, Andy Reid is on his way out, Michael Vick is hurt, Cam Newton is having a bad season, and the Panthers are a disaster. I guess you go with the Eagles to win and somehow avoid a seventh straight loss.
KANSAS CITY (+10) over Denver: This game looks like a mismatch, but if you look deeper there are some things to worry about as a Broncos fan. First, the Broncos ALWAYS have trouble in Arrowhead-no matter who is the quarterback. Second, the Chiefs have not won a game at home this year, and they are due for a home win at some point. Third, you know how crazy the NFL can be. Last week the 1-8 Jags took the Texans to the limit in Houston. Lastly, I am very worried about how the loss of Willis McGahee will affect this Broncos offense. Denver's offense has not played well at all the last two games, and without McGahee I don't know if they will be able to run the ball at all with any effectiveness. McGahee's injury will also create problems in pass protection as well. The Broncos should win this game, but there are a lot of red flags out there in this game. It is not a slam dunk like many people believe.
Final Score: Chiefs-23 Broncos-21
Thursday, November 22, 2012
Week 12 Thanksgiving Picks
DETROIT (+3) over Houston: Tough game to call and normally I would go against the Lions in this spot, but I have a feeling that the Lions are due for a win on Thanksgiving. They aren't close to what they were last year, there is fighting and bickering on the sidelines, but they have lost their last 8 games in a row on Turkey Day. The Texans are the better team, but they had to play an overtime game at home last week against Jacksonville, and now they have to travel to Detroit on a really short week. The Lions need the win more than Houston does, so take the home underdog.
DALLAS (-3) over Washington: The Cowboys seem to never cover at home. Last week, they squeaked by the Browns, and now they get the 4-6 Redskins. I love this matchup for Thanksgiving, and I think that this will be a really close game. Expect Robert Griffin III to put his skills on display for the national audience, but the Cowboys will find a way to win a close and exciting game. Call it 28-24 Cowboys.
JETS (+7) over New England: Here is why Jets fans drive you nuts: After falling to 3-6, Jet fans were screaming about benching Mark Sanchez, firing Mike Tannenbaum and Rex Ryan, and blowing up the franchise. After they beat the Rams on Sunday to get to 4-6, now the Jets fans are all talking about getting on a run and making the playoffs. At least that win made this game appealing for Thanksgiving night. The Pats looked great in their 59-24 win over the Colts last week, but the injury to Rob Gronkowski will be a tough one to deal with. I think the Pats win the game, but it will be close. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Jets pull off the upset.
DALLAS (-3) over Washington: The Cowboys seem to never cover at home. Last week, they squeaked by the Browns, and now they get the 4-6 Redskins. I love this matchup for Thanksgiving, and I think that this will be a really close game. Expect Robert Griffin III to put his skills on display for the national audience, but the Cowboys will find a way to win a close and exciting game. Call it 28-24 Cowboys.
JETS (+7) over New England: Here is why Jets fans drive you nuts: After falling to 3-6, Jet fans were screaming about benching Mark Sanchez, firing Mike Tannenbaum and Rex Ryan, and blowing up the franchise. After they beat the Rams on Sunday to get to 4-6, now the Jets fans are all talking about getting on a run and making the playoffs. At least that win made this game appealing for Thanksgiving night. The Pats looked great in their 59-24 win over the Colts last week, but the injury to Rob Gronkowski will be a tough one to deal with. I think the Pats win the game, but it will be close. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Jets pull off the upset.
Tuesday, November 20, 2012
Broncos Hold Off San Diego 30-23, Take Commanding Lead in AFC West
The Broncos took a commanding lead in the AFC West with their 30-23 win over the San Diego Chargers on Sunday at Mile High. The Broncos, 7-3, now hold a three game lead over the 4-6 Chargers, but they have now swept San Diego to give them the edge in the tiebreaker with six games to go. This game was similar to last week's game in the fact that the offense really wasn't the story of this win. The Broncos defense was fantastic. Forget about the last touchdown that the Chargers scored to with a few minutes left. Their defense flat out dominated Philip Rivers and that offense. Von Miller was again the best player on the field. The Broncos didn't give up a third down conversion until the third quarter. They got key turnovers deep in San Diego territory and added a blocked punt. The Broncos offense was able to capitalize on those turnovers, and they got points on key drives. The Broncos clearly proved that they were the better team, and the now they have positioned themselves to win the AFC West. One thing that I thought about right after the game ended was the fact that the Broncos swept the Chargers for the first time since 2005. People can talk about the recent disappointments the Broncos have suffered since 2005, and many people point to the collapse of 2008, the firing of Mike Shanahan, the hiring of Josh McDaniels, and the trades of Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall as the key moments in the demise of the Broncos franchise. In my opinion, I always thought the key moment that started the whole stretch of disappointment as a Broncos fan started on November 19, 2006. That night Denver hosted San Diego in a matchup of two 7-2 teams. The Broncos blew a 27-7 lead to San Diego, and they fell apart that year and finished 9-7 and out of the playoffs. I've always felt that the Broncos franchise never really recovered from that game, and it actually started the Chargers on their run of dominance in the AFC West that lasted from 2006 through 2009. Now, six years later to the day, the Broncos defeated the Chargers, swept them in the process, and it might lead to major changes in San Diego, and it could send the Broncos on a big run down the road. We'll see what happens, but it took about six years for the Broncos to finally displace the Chargers and take control of the AFC West from them. Here are my thoughts and observations from the game.....
1) Von Miller added 3 sacks, two tackles for loss, and two forced fumbles. He is making a run at the NFL Defensive Player of the Year Award, and he is just dominating in every aspect in every game.
2) The Broncos run defense was stout once again, and they got key turnovers at critical times. Wesley Woodyard's interception set up a field goal in the first half, and Miller's forced fumble of Rivers set up a Peyton Manning to Eric Decker touchdown to give the Broncos a 24-9 lead in the third quarter. The story of this game was the Broncos defense.
3) Although Manning and the Broncos offense struggled a lot in this game, they were able to convert turnovers into points. Also, when they needed a score to add to their 24-16 fourth quarter lead, Manning was able to drive the length of the field, convert some key third downs, and get two critical field goals to give them a 30-16 lead.
4) The Broncos special teams have been really good this year. They have had touchdowns on punt and kick returns the past few weeks, and this week they added a key block punt in the second quarter. That set up a Manning to Brandon Stokley 31 yard touchdown to give them a 17-7 lead at the half.
5) The run game was actually moving the ball effectively in the first half, but once Willis McGahee went down, they really couldn't run the ball. McGahee tore his MCL, and he will be out at least 6 weeks. The Broncos are going to have to rely on Lance Ball, Ronnie Hillman, and possibly Knowshon Moreno to keep the running game going. The McGahee injury is very significant for their offense, but it is not a deathblow because this offense obviously runs through the arm of Manning and the passing game.
6) Every week the same names stand out for this Broncos team. We know how great Manning playing, how great Von Miller looks, but guys like Chris Harris, Tony Carter, Wesley Woodyard, and Kevin Vickerson continue to impress. Even D.J. Williams came back from suspension and made some nice plays. This defense is playing really well, and if they can keep it up, then it changes everything.
7) The Broncos still make too many mistakes. Manning threw a pick-six, Lance Ball fumbled, and Trindon Holliday fumbled a ball that was recovered by the Broncos. Decker, Jacob Tamme, and Joel Dreessen each dropped passes that would have kept drives alive. All of these mistakes that happen every week are really going to kill the Broncos at some point down the road. Mark my words.
8) Denver is now 7-3, and they head to Kansas City to play the 1-9 Chiefs. The Broncos always struggle at Arrowhead, but this might be the most dysfunctional Chiefs team to host Denver in a really long time. The Broncos have to take care of business this week and dispatch of an inferior team to get to 8-3.
1) Von Miller added 3 sacks, two tackles for loss, and two forced fumbles. He is making a run at the NFL Defensive Player of the Year Award, and he is just dominating in every aspect in every game.
2) The Broncos run defense was stout once again, and they got key turnovers at critical times. Wesley Woodyard's interception set up a field goal in the first half, and Miller's forced fumble of Rivers set up a Peyton Manning to Eric Decker touchdown to give the Broncos a 24-9 lead in the third quarter. The story of this game was the Broncos defense.
3) Although Manning and the Broncos offense struggled a lot in this game, they were able to convert turnovers into points. Also, when they needed a score to add to their 24-16 fourth quarter lead, Manning was able to drive the length of the field, convert some key third downs, and get two critical field goals to give them a 30-16 lead.
4) The Broncos special teams have been really good this year. They have had touchdowns on punt and kick returns the past few weeks, and this week they added a key block punt in the second quarter. That set up a Manning to Brandon Stokley 31 yard touchdown to give them a 17-7 lead at the half.
5) The run game was actually moving the ball effectively in the first half, but once Willis McGahee went down, they really couldn't run the ball. McGahee tore his MCL, and he will be out at least 6 weeks. The Broncos are going to have to rely on Lance Ball, Ronnie Hillman, and possibly Knowshon Moreno to keep the running game going. The McGahee injury is very significant for their offense, but it is not a deathblow because this offense obviously runs through the arm of Manning and the passing game.
6) Every week the same names stand out for this Broncos team. We know how great Manning playing, how great Von Miller looks, but guys like Chris Harris, Tony Carter, Wesley Woodyard, and Kevin Vickerson continue to impress. Even D.J. Williams came back from suspension and made some nice plays. This defense is playing really well, and if they can keep it up, then it changes everything.
7) The Broncos still make too many mistakes. Manning threw a pick-six, Lance Ball fumbled, and Trindon Holliday fumbled a ball that was recovered by the Broncos. Decker, Jacob Tamme, and Joel Dreessen each dropped passes that would have kept drives alive. All of these mistakes that happen every week are really going to kill the Broncos at some point down the road. Mark my words.
8) Denver is now 7-3, and they head to Kansas City to play the 1-9 Chiefs. The Broncos always struggle at Arrowhead, but this might be the most dysfunctional Chiefs team to host Denver in a really long time. The Broncos have to take care of business this week and dispatch of an inferior team to get to 8-3.
Friday, November 16, 2012
Week 11 Picks
We are heading into Week 11 of the NFL season, and Thanksgiving is upon us in less than a week. Usually, at this time of the year in the NFL, the fans and the media are talking about how the season has been such a topsy-turvy year. We are usually talking about teams that were completely dismissed before the season are now making real runs at the playoffs or a division title. Conversely, we are discussing how some big name teams are really disappointing and how no one saw that decline coming. This year is different. The 2012 season-for the most part-has held serve if you will. Things have transpired basically how many people thought they would. Let's start with the AFC. New England, Baltimore, Houston, and Denver are all leading their divisions. Pittsburgh is entrenched as a wild card too. Those five teams were all generally considered to be playoff teams out of the AFC this year. Those five all made the playoffs last year, so there really is no surprises in the AFC. The only surprise so far is that the Colts are 6-3 in the first year of the Andrew Luck Era. It isn't a surprise to me because I had the Colts being very competitive this year, but just missing out on the playoffs. Other than the Colts, what has taken place hasn't really surprised anyone. The Jets are struggling with Mark Sanchez and their offense. The Tim Tebow move has been a distraction. The Dolphins are going through growing pains with Ryan Tannehill. The Bengals are a decent team, but they can't get by the Ravens or the Steelers. The Jaguars and Browns stink. The Chargers are underachieving, and Norv Turner is on the hotseat. The Raiders, Titans, and Bills are mediocre. The Chiefs suck really bad. Outside of a few people that picked the Bills and the Chiefs to make the playoffs, nothing has really stood out as Earth shattering.
When you look at the NFC, the same results seem to apply. The Giants, Falcons, Bears, and Niners lead their respective divisions. Everyone seemed to love those four teams going into 2012. The Packers are a wild card team right now, and everyone had the Packers as a Super Bowl favorite coming out of the NFC. Seattle has a good defense and are very tough at home. The Cowboys are up and down every week. The Skins are going through some tough times, but Robert Griffin III gives them hope for next year. The Saints struggled at the start of the season due to the ramifications of the bounty scandal. The Rams are building something with Jeff Fisher, but they are at least a year away. The Cardinals have no quarterback and no offensive line. The Lions are taking a step back. The Eagles are all over the place, and Andy Reid and Michael Vick appear on the way out. Cam Newton is having a sophomore slump after his spectacular rookie year. The only real surprises are the Bucs and the Vikings. A lot of people felt that Tampa Bay would be improved after their dismal 4-12 season in 2011, so the fact that they are 5-4 under Greg Schiano is certainly not shocking. I guess the Vikings at 6-4 might be the only really big surprise in the NFC, but no one is really counting on Minnesota to win 10 games and make the playoffs.
When you look at the league right now, nine playoff teams from last year are on target to make the playoffs again this year. That is way over the usual projection of only six teams returning to the playoffs the next year. The one thing you can usually count on in the NFL is not knowing what was going to happen from one season to the next. This year has really played out the way that many people have predicted-which is really strange. What will happen from here on out? It is hard to see a lot of crazy things happening at this point. Although everything seems to be playing out the way many of us had predicted, I still think the NFL season will get crazy after Thanksgiving. It almost has to. Injuries, wild upsets, and some crazy finishes are still lurking out there, and those types of situations can really create chaos in this non-chaotic year. It might have taken a little longer to get there this year, but don't be too surprised when it happens. Onto the picks for Week 11........
Last Week's Record: 5-9
Overall Record: 64-76-5
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)
WASHINGTON (-3) over Philly: Before the season started, I spent the whole Summer debating what was going to happen to the Eagles. For a long time, I had the Eagles bottoming out, and Andy Reid finally losing his job; however, I went the other way and picked the Eagles to make the playoffs. The Eagles are 3-6, and it looks like this team is going down the tubes. They haven't played well all year, and I don't see that continuing this week with backup QB Nick Foles replacing the "injured" Michael Vick. Also, the Redskins have been really bad at home under Mike Shanahan. They are due for a big home win.
Green Bay (-3) over DETROIT: The Packers are going on the road, and they are banged up, but this Packers team seems to be hitting their stride. The Lions are just not the same team they were in 2011, and Green Bay will get to 7-3 with a tough road win against a divisional opponent.
Arizona (+10) over ATLANTA: The Falcons are now 8-1 after their close loss at New Orleans last week, and I think they will win this game at home, but this has a chance to be a lot closer than the spread might indicate. Nothing has gone right for the Cardinals since their 4-0 start, but the Falcons haven't blown out too many teams at home this year. This game feels like a 26-20 win for Atlanta.
Tampa Bay (-1) over CAROLINA: After watching the Panthers last week against Denver, I realized that the Panthers have no clue what to do on offense. They have Cam Newton, DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, Steve Smith, and Greg Olson, and they can't move the ball a lick. How are the Bucs only laying a point on the road to this team? The Bucs continue their winning ways with a convincing win this week.
DALLAS (-7) over Cleveland: I know that this is usually a spot where the Cowboys won't play well, fail to cover, and barely win, but I think the Cowboys buck the trend this week. That win over Philly last week saved their season, and they smell the blood in the water. Look for them to take of business at home against the hapless Browns.
ST.LOUIS (-3) over New York Jets: The last thing the Jets needed was an article to come out that featured a dozen players ripping Tim Tebow. We know the Jets are struggling at 3-6, but they certainly didn't need anymore distractions like that one heading into a must-win game for them. This game will go back and forth, but I like the Rams at home in this one. I was inspired by what I saw out of them last week in their tie with the Niners.
NEW ENGLAND (-9) over Indy: I thought the Pats were going to get a blowout win over the Bills last week, but they barely survived at the end and hung on to win 37-31. I think they are still due for a big blowout win at home, and they really haven't had one all year. A lot of people are picking the Colts to cover, and this game will be close throughout, but I think the Pats put it away early the fourth quarter and cruise to an easy victory by at least two touchdowns.
Jacksonville (+15) over HOUSTON: The Texans will win this game, but I am done picking teams to cover huge spreads this year. Houston can win this game in their sleep, and I foresee a rather ho-hum win for the Texans to the tune of something like 20-6.
KANSAS CITY (+4) over Cincy: The Chiefs haven't won at Arrowhead all year long. In fact, they haven't been very competitive at home with the exception of the game against the Ravens. They are due for a home win. Cincy buried the Giants last week, but you can never fully trust the Bengals.
OAKLAND (+5) over New Orleans: The Saints have done a nice job digging themselves out of their 0-4 hole to start the season. At 4-5, the Saints got an emotional win over the Falcons at home last week, and a lot of people are starting to jump on their bandwagon as a late-season threat. I think this is a classic letdown game for the Saints. They have to travel all the way across the country against an unfamiliar opponent. Take the Raiders and the points in the Black Hole.
PITTSBURGH (+3) over Baltimore: I might be kicking myself for taking the Steelers with Big Ben out due to injury. Can you really take Byron Leftwitch against the Ravens? Yes you can and here is why: Are the Ravens really as good as their 7-2 record indicates? I don't think so, and they really haven't beaten anyone decent this year. The Steelers are the only team in the league that seems to lose marquee players and somehow continue to win games. I'm taking the Steelers on hunch this week and look for them to somehow pull this one out at home.
Chicago (+6) over SAN FRANCISCO: Jay Cutler is out with a concussion, so enter Jason Campbell. We all know how the Bears melted down the stretch last year when Cutler went down, but Campbell is a much better option than Caleb Hanie or Josh McCown. The Niners are 6-2-1, but they also seem to have lost a little of their early season luster. It is uncertain if Alex Smith will start for SF as a result of his own concussion suffered last week, but the Bears defense will rise up and put this game on their shoulders no matter who starts for the 49ers.
San Diego (+7) over DENVER:
At 6-3, the Broncos are playing really well right now. Peyton Manning is on fire, and if the Broncos win this game at home, then they will take a commanding three game lead in the AFC West by sweeping the Chargers in the process. Can they really a stranglehold on this division this early in the season? Don't you get the feeling that the Chargers will make one more solid run at Denver for the division crown. At 4-5, the Chargers desperately need this game. In the NFL, you usually side with the team that is more desperate. The Broncos are a really good team, but they still make too many mistakes. They were able to get away with those mistakes the last two weeks with victories over inferior teams, but I don't see that happening just yet. Plus, aren't we due for a Peyton Manning clunker performance? I can see Manning having a tough day, losing to the Chargers at home, spending the entire week having to answer questions about his arm strength and health, and then going on a six game stretch in which he completely tears up the rest of the league once again.
Final Score: Chargers-28 Denver-24
When you look at the NFC, the same results seem to apply. The Giants, Falcons, Bears, and Niners lead their respective divisions. Everyone seemed to love those four teams going into 2012. The Packers are a wild card team right now, and everyone had the Packers as a Super Bowl favorite coming out of the NFC. Seattle has a good defense and are very tough at home. The Cowboys are up and down every week. The Skins are going through some tough times, but Robert Griffin III gives them hope for next year. The Saints struggled at the start of the season due to the ramifications of the bounty scandal. The Rams are building something with Jeff Fisher, but they are at least a year away. The Cardinals have no quarterback and no offensive line. The Lions are taking a step back. The Eagles are all over the place, and Andy Reid and Michael Vick appear on the way out. Cam Newton is having a sophomore slump after his spectacular rookie year. The only real surprises are the Bucs and the Vikings. A lot of people felt that Tampa Bay would be improved after their dismal 4-12 season in 2011, so the fact that they are 5-4 under Greg Schiano is certainly not shocking. I guess the Vikings at 6-4 might be the only really big surprise in the NFC, but no one is really counting on Minnesota to win 10 games and make the playoffs.
When you look at the league right now, nine playoff teams from last year are on target to make the playoffs again this year. That is way over the usual projection of only six teams returning to the playoffs the next year. The one thing you can usually count on in the NFL is not knowing what was going to happen from one season to the next. This year has really played out the way that many people have predicted-which is really strange. What will happen from here on out? It is hard to see a lot of crazy things happening at this point. Although everything seems to be playing out the way many of us had predicted, I still think the NFL season will get crazy after Thanksgiving. It almost has to. Injuries, wild upsets, and some crazy finishes are still lurking out there, and those types of situations can really create chaos in this non-chaotic year. It might have taken a little longer to get there this year, but don't be too surprised when it happens. Onto the picks for Week 11........
Last Week's Record: 5-9
Overall Record: 64-76-5
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)
WASHINGTON (-3) over Philly: Before the season started, I spent the whole Summer debating what was going to happen to the Eagles. For a long time, I had the Eagles bottoming out, and Andy Reid finally losing his job; however, I went the other way and picked the Eagles to make the playoffs. The Eagles are 3-6, and it looks like this team is going down the tubes. They haven't played well all year, and I don't see that continuing this week with backup QB Nick Foles replacing the "injured" Michael Vick. Also, the Redskins have been really bad at home under Mike Shanahan. They are due for a big home win.
Green Bay (-3) over DETROIT: The Packers are going on the road, and they are banged up, but this Packers team seems to be hitting their stride. The Lions are just not the same team they were in 2011, and Green Bay will get to 7-3 with a tough road win against a divisional opponent.
Arizona (+10) over ATLANTA: The Falcons are now 8-1 after their close loss at New Orleans last week, and I think they will win this game at home, but this has a chance to be a lot closer than the spread might indicate. Nothing has gone right for the Cardinals since their 4-0 start, but the Falcons haven't blown out too many teams at home this year. This game feels like a 26-20 win for Atlanta.
Tampa Bay (-1) over CAROLINA: After watching the Panthers last week against Denver, I realized that the Panthers have no clue what to do on offense. They have Cam Newton, DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, Steve Smith, and Greg Olson, and they can't move the ball a lick. How are the Bucs only laying a point on the road to this team? The Bucs continue their winning ways with a convincing win this week.
DALLAS (-7) over Cleveland: I know that this is usually a spot where the Cowboys won't play well, fail to cover, and barely win, but I think the Cowboys buck the trend this week. That win over Philly last week saved their season, and they smell the blood in the water. Look for them to take of business at home against the hapless Browns.
ST.LOUIS (-3) over New York Jets: The last thing the Jets needed was an article to come out that featured a dozen players ripping Tim Tebow. We know the Jets are struggling at 3-6, but they certainly didn't need anymore distractions like that one heading into a must-win game for them. This game will go back and forth, but I like the Rams at home in this one. I was inspired by what I saw out of them last week in their tie with the Niners.
NEW ENGLAND (-9) over Indy: I thought the Pats were going to get a blowout win over the Bills last week, but they barely survived at the end and hung on to win 37-31. I think they are still due for a big blowout win at home, and they really haven't had one all year. A lot of people are picking the Colts to cover, and this game will be close throughout, but I think the Pats put it away early the fourth quarter and cruise to an easy victory by at least two touchdowns.
Jacksonville (+15) over HOUSTON: The Texans will win this game, but I am done picking teams to cover huge spreads this year. Houston can win this game in their sleep, and I foresee a rather ho-hum win for the Texans to the tune of something like 20-6.
KANSAS CITY (+4) over Cincy: The Chiefs haven't won at Arrowhead all year long. In fact, they haven't been very competitive at home with the exception of the game against the Ravens. They are due for a home win. Cincy buried the Giants last week, but you can never fully trust the Bengals.
OAKLAND (+5) over New Orleans: The Saints have done a nice job digging themselves out of their 0-4 hole to start the season. At 4-5, the Saints got an emotional win over the Falcons at home last week, and a lot of people are starting to jump on their bandwagon as a late-season threat. I think this is a classic letdown game for the Saints. They have to travel all the way across the country against an unfamiliar opponent. Take the Raiders and the points in the Black Hole.
PITTSBURGH (+3) over Baltimore: I might be kicking myself for taking the Steelers with Big Ben out due to injury. Can you really take Byron Leftwitch against the Ravens? Yes you can and here is why: Are the Ravens really as good as their 7-2 record indicates? I don't think so, and they really haven't beaten anyone decent this year. The Steelers are the only team in the league that seems to lose marquee players and somehow continue to win games. I'm taking the Steelers on hunch this week and look for them to somehow pull this one out at home.
Chicago (+6) over SAN FRANCISCO: Jay Cutler is out with a concussion, so enter Jason Campbell. We all know how the Bears melted down the stretch last year when Cutler went down, but Campbell is a much better option than Caleb Hanie or Josh McCown. The Niners are 6-2-1, but they also seem to have lost a little of their early season luster. It is uncertain if Alex Smith will start for SF as a result of his own concussion suffered last week, but the Bears defense will rise up and put this game on their shoulders no matter who starts for the 49ers.
San Diego (+7) over DENVER:
At 6-3, the Broncos are playing really well right now. Peyton Manning is on fire, and if the Broncos win this game at home, then they will take a commanding three game lead in the AFC West by sweeping the Chargers in the process. Can they really a stranglehold on this division this early in the season? Don't you get the feeling that the Chargers will make one more solid run at Denver for the division crown. At 4-5, the Chargers desperately need this game. In the NFL, you usually side with the team that is more desperate. The Broncos are a really good team, but they still make too many mistakes. They were able to get away with those mistakes the last two weeks with victories over inferior teams, but I don't see that happening just yet. Plus, aren't we due for a Peyton Manning clunker performance? I can see Manning having a tough day, losing to the Chargers at home, spending the entire week having to answer questions about his arm strength and health, and then going on a six game stretch in which he completely tears up the rest of the league once again.
Final Score: Chargers-28 Denver-24
Thursday, November 15, 2012
Wednesday, November 14, 2012
Broncos Stifle Panthers 36-14
The story of Sunday's game between the Broncos and the Panthers was actually not about the play of Peyton Manning. Normally, Manning is the story of every game involving the Broncos, but this week it was different. The Broncos defense suffocated, tormented, and flat-out dominated Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers on their way to a 36-14 win. The Broncos defense sacked Newton seven times, held the Panthers to 250 total yards, and the Panthers went 0-12 on third down. Denver's defense added a 40 yard interception return by Tony Carter and a safety. It was a dominating performance by that group, and it overshadowed the lack of consistent play by the Broncos offense. The Broncos did what they had to do. They won another game on the road against a team that they were favored to beat. It was a convincing win that also showed that the Broncos can win a game when their offense is out of sync. Here are my quick thoughts and obvservations from the game.....
1) I thought Von Miller set the tone when he sacked Newton on the first drive of the game. Newton looked like he was going to step up and run for a first down, but Miller tracked him down and made the play. It was a great play, and it was an omen for things to come for Newton and his offense.
2) Speaking of Miller, how important is he to the Broncos defense? He is clearly emerging as a finalist for the NFL Defensive Player of the Year. His game on Sunday was just terrific. His stat line: 6 tackles, 1 sack, and 4 tackles for a loss. He was all over the field on Sunday and wrecked the Panthers offense by himself. He forced a bad throw by Newton which resulted in Tony Carter's pick-six which gave Denver a 24-7 in the third quarter.
3) After the Panthers scored a touchdown on a nice drive in the first quarter, the Broncos defense completely shut down the Panthers offense. It got to the point that I didn't mind when the Broncos punted, and it allowed the Broncos defense to go back to work. It was fun to watch.
4) Robert Ayers came in for an injured Elvis Dumervil and played like a man amongst boys. He added a sack and two tackles for loss, and he completely dominated the line of scrimmage when he entered the game. He really stood out in the second half.
5) Tony Carter continues to makes plays, and his interception return sealed the game. I know it was aided by Von Miller's pressure, but he still made the break on the ball and returned it to the house. He continues to impress week after week.
6) Trindon Holliday returned a punt 76 yards for a touchdown in the second quarter to give Denver a 14-7 lead. This is the second game in a row that Holliday returned a kick for a touchdown. He is going to be a real threat as the season goes on. Denver hasn't had a home run threat in the return game since the days of Darien Gordon. Now all Holliday needs to do is make sure he doesn't flip the ball out of his hands before he crosses the goal line.
7) Peyton Manning had a rather pedestrian day. He went 27-38 for 301 yards and 1 touchdown. It was the quietiest 300 yard game I have seen in a long time. The Broncos offense just wasn't crisp yesterday. Eric Decker dropped another big play, and he was shut down completely after that. Willis McGahee fumbled twice, and the one fumble he lost was when the Broncos were driving deep into Carolina territory. Manning also got sacked and fumbled deep in Carolina territory, and those two turnovers really prevented the Broncos from putting the game away in the third quarter. Overall, it was a C performance by the Broncos, but it was enough to get the job done and get the win. They did put up 20 points on offense and that would have been enough to win the game. Also, when they needed it, their offense put a drive together to clinch the game. Up 29-14 with five minutes to go, Manning and the Broncos drove down the field aided by a Manning to Demaryius Thomas bomb down the sidelines to put the Broncos inside the five. A play later, Ronnie Hillman scampered in for a short touchdown run to put the Broncos up 36-14 and put the game out of reach for good.
8) The Bronocos continue to make mistakes that are going to cost them down the road in the season. McGahee has a serious fumbling problem that needs to be addressed. Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas are good for at least one crucial drop every week. They are just sloppy with the football and it will come back to haunt them unless they somehow fix it over the final seven games.
9) No matter how you slice it, the Broncos took care of business and won the game going away against a weaker opponent. The Broncos are now 6-3 and own a two game lead on the Chargers in the AFC West. Denver hosts San Diego this week in a huge divisional game because the Broncos could take a three game lead on the Bolts in the division, and they would have swept them in the process.
1) I thought Von Miller set the tone when he sacked Newton on the first drive of the game. Newton looked like he was going to step up and run for a first down, but Miller tracked him down and made the play. It was a great play, and it was an omen for things to come for Newton and his offense.
2) Speaking of Miller, how important is he to the Broncos defense? He is clearly emerging as a finalist for the NFL Defensive Player of the Year. His game on Sunday was just terrific. His stat line: 6 tackles, 1 sack, and 4 tackles for a loss. He was all over the field on Sunday and wrecked the Panthers offense by himself. He forced a bad throw by Newton which resulted in Tony Carter's pick-six which gave Denver a 24-7 in the third quarter.
3) After the Panthers scored a touchdown on a nice drive in the first quarter, the Broncos defense completely shut down the Panthers offense. It got to the point that I didn't mind when the Broncos punted, and it allowed the Broncos defense to go back to work. It was fun to watch.
4) Robert Ayers came in for an injured Elvis Dumervil and played like a man amongst boys. He added a sack and two tackles for loss, and he completely dominated the line of scrimmage when he entered the game. He really stood out in the second half.
5) Tony Carter continues to makes plays, and his interception return sealed the game. I know it was aided by Von Miller's pressure, but he still made the break on the ball and returned it to the house. He continues to impress week after week.
6) Trindon Holliday returned a punt 76 yards for a touchdown in the second quarter to give Denver a 14-7 lead. This is the second game in a row that Holliday returned a kick for a touchdown. He is going to be a real threat as the season goes on. Denver hasn't had a home run threat in the return game since the days of Darien Gordon. Now all Holliday needs to do is make sure he doesn't flip the ball out of his hands before he crosses the goal line.
7) Peyton Manning had a rather pedestrian day. He went 27-38 for 301 yards and 1 touchdown. It was the quietiest 300 yard game I have seen in a long time. The Broncos offense just wasn't crisp yesterday. Eric Decker dropped another big play, and he was shut down completely after that. Willis McGahee fumbled twice, and the one fumble he lost was when the Broncos were driving deep into Carolina territory. Manning also got sacked and fumbled deep in Carolina territory, and those two turnovers really prevented the Broncos from putting the game away in the third quarter. Overall, it was a C performance by the Broncos, but it was enough to get the job done and get the win. They did put up 20 points on offense and that would have been enough to win the game. Also, when they needed it, their offense put a drive together to clinch the game. Up 29-14 with five minutes to go, Manning and the Broncos drove down the field aided by a Manning to Demaryius Thomas bomb down the sidelines to put the Broncos inside the five. A play later, Ronnie Hillman scampered in for a short touchdown run to put the Broncos up 36-14 and put the game out of reach for good.
8) The Bronocos continue to make mistakes that are going to cost them down the road in the season. McGahee has a serious fumbling problem that needs to be addressed. Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas are good for at least one crucial drop every week. They are just sloppy with the football and it will come back to haunt them unless they somehow fix it over the final seven games.
9) No matter how you slice it, the Broncos took care of business and won the game going away against a weaker opponent. The Broncos are now 6-3 and own a two game lead on the Chargers in the AFC West. Denver hosts San Diego this week in a huge divisional game because the Broncos could take a three game lead on the Bolts in the division, and they would have swept them in the process.
Saturday, November 10, 2012
Week 10 Picks
Week 10 in the NFL season means that there are a bunch of teams facing do or die situations. At 3-5, a team's playoff hopes could hinge on the result of this week's game. If you are 3-5, and you lose this week, then your playoff hopes are not totally dead, but they are on life support just waiting for the plug to be pulled. The list of 3-5 teams playing this weekend includes: New Orleans, St. Louis, the Jets, Buffalo, Cincy, Oakland, Dallas, and Philly. You can include Tennessee but they are 3-6, so their playoff hopes are pretty much done. The same could be said for the 3-6 Redskins, who have a bye this week. If you fall to 3-6, then you would have to go 6-1 down the stretch for at least a fighting chance to make the playoffs as a Wild Card. It doesn't look like there is a random 8-8 division winner out there this season, so the route that the 2011 Broncos took from 3-5 to AFC West Champs at 8-8 is unlikely to occur again this year. The difference between 3-6 and 4-5 is monumental. At 3-6, you have to get really hot the last seven games, and you can't afford any hiccups. Out of that group, do you really trust any of those teams getting extremely dangerous over the final seven games of the season? I didn't think so. Maybe you can make a case for the Eagles and the Cowboys, but that is it. It truly is do or die for some teams already in the 2012 campaign. The 3-5 teams that win will extend their playoff lives a little bit longer, while the teams that lose can start thinking about next year. Onto the picks for Week 10......
Last Week's Record: 8-6
Overall Record: 59-67-5
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)
NEW ENGLAND (-10) over Buffalo: I am truly disappointed in the Bills this year. They played hard last week at Houston, but the inconsistent play of Ryan Fitzpatrick has hurt them this season. Look for the Pats to put forth a top notch effort and cruise to an easy win at home.
New York Giants (-4) over CINCY: Does anyone else think that Eli Manning is going to be helped by picking the brain of his brother when he goes against the Cincy defense a week after Peyton carved them up? I definitely think that will help Eli get out of his funk this week. The Giants have everyone right where they want them. Once people doubt Eli and his team, the G-Men respond.
San Diego (+3) over TAMPA BAY: This is a huge game for two 4-4 teams. The Bucs look like real contenders for that final playoff spot in the NFC. The Chargers might even be a little underrated at this point. I think Philip Rivers is due for a big time performance, and I like the Chargers as road underdogs to win the game outright.
MIAMI (-6) over Tennessee: I'm done picking the Titans this year. I made a bad call by picking them to make the playoffs, and Mike Munchak might be on his way out after the season ends. This has the potential to be close, but everytime I doubted the Dolphins this year, they seem to rise up and surprise me. The line is a little too high, but I'll take them to get the job done at home.
Oakland (+7) over BALTIMORE: Upset alert in Baltimore this week. Everyone expects an easy Ravens win, but I like the Raiders to keep this game close. I know Darren McFadden might not play, but I have a feeling the Raiders will be competitive in this game. I don't like the Raiders playing the early game on the East, but I'll take them and the points anyway. This feels like a 23-20 game either way.
Atlanta (-2) over NEW ORLEANS: Why does everyone think that the Saints are back? Did anyone watch them just mail in the game at Denver two weeks ago? I know they beat the Eagles in crucial game last Monday night, but that game was more about how pathetic the Eagles are at this point. The Falcons get a little revenge on the Saints for running up the score in New Orleans late in the season last year.
MINNESOTA (+3) over Detroit: Everyone that was on the Vikings bandwagon a few weeks ago has suddenly jumped off after watching the Vikings the past few weeks. I know Christian Ponder hasn't played well in about a month, but I think they will play really well this week at home. The Lions are back in the race at 4-4, but this week might be a tough one for them. I love the fact that the Vikings are getting points at home.
New York Jets (+6) over SEATTLE: This game goes two ways: Seattle wins big at home, or the Jets pull off the shocker. I'm taking the Jets because everyone loves the Seahawks in this game. Plus, can't you see Rex Ryan devising some sort of gameplan to contain and frustrate Russell Wilson? Also, this would be a typical spot for the Jets to invigorate their fanbase by winning this game in Seattle, and then they will let down that same fanbase by dropping a game at St. Louis next week.
Dallas (-2) over PHILLY: Two 3-5 teams meeting in a must see matchup. It is the game of the week featuring two of the most overhyped and disappointing teams of 2012. Only the Cowboys and Eagles could meet in a game with such huge ramifications. At least the Cowboys have shown at times that they are close to breaking through and becoming a playoff type team. The Eagles have looked shitty all season long. Take Dallas on the road, and if they win this game, then watch out because they could potentially get on a run.
St.Louis (+12) over SAN FRANCISCO: The Niners will win this game, but I'll grab the points for the Rams on the road. What happened to the Rams mojo after their 3-2 start? They won't win the game, but they will keep it closer than expected.
Houston (+2) over CHICAGO: The Bears are getting it done with their defense. They get stops, get after the quarterback, and create turnovers nonstop. Plus, when you get scores from your defense it makes things a lot easier for your offense. I think the Texans will find a way to win this game. Look for a solid day out of Arian Foster, and they will keep the Bears defense on their heels with the play action game. J.J. Watt and that defense will make Jay Cutler's night hell.
PITTSBURGH (-11) over Kansas City: The Steelers got themselves to 5-3, and now they have the hapless Chiefs coming into town for a Monday nighter. This has all the makings of a 27-3 win, and Pittsburgh will cruise to 6-3.
CAROLINA (+4) over Denver: This game scares me for one reason: Cam Newton. I know he has struggled at times this year, but he has the ability to take over a game at any moment. I wouldn't be surprised to see Cam put up a stat line like this against the Denver defense: 285 yards passing and 2 TDs/90 rushing and 1 TD. The Broncos haven't faced that kind of threat all season. This will be a tough one for the Broncos. Winning back-to-back road games is never easy in the NFL. This is a very dangerous game, and that is why I'm picking the Panthers at home.
Final Score: Panthers-27 Denver-21
Last Week's Record: 8-6
Overall Record: 59-67-5
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)
NEW ENGLAND (-10) over Buffalo: I am truly disappointed in the Bills this year. They played hard last week at Houston, but the inconsistent play of Ryan Fitzpatrick has hurt them this season. Look for the Pats to put forth a top notch effort and cruise to an easy win at home.
New York Giants (-4) over CINCY: Does anyone else think that Eli Manning is going to be helped by picking the brain of his brother when he goes against the Cincy defense a week after Peyton carved them up? I definitely think that will help Eli get out of his funk this week. The Giants have everyone right where they want them. Once people doubt Eli and his team, the G-Men respond.
San Diego (+3) over TAMPA BAY: This is a huge game for two 4-4 teams. The Bucs look like real contenders for that final playoff spot in the NFC. The Chargers might even be a little underrated at this point. I think Philip Rivers is due for a big time performance, and I like the Chargers as road underdogs to win the game outright.
MIAMI (-6) over Tennessee: I'm done picking the Titans this year. I made a bad call by picking them to make the playoffs, and Mike Munchak might be on his way out after the season ends. This has the potential to be close, but everytime I doubted the Dolphins this year, they seem to rise up and surprise me. The line is a little too high, but I'll take them to get the job done at home.
Oakland (+7) over BALTIMORE: Upset alert in Baltimore this week. Everyone expects an easy Ravens win, but I like the Raiders to keep this game close. I know Darren McFadden might not play, but I have a feeling the Raiders will be competitive in this game. I don't like the Raiders playing the early game on the East, but I'll take them and the points anyway. This feels like a 23-20 game either way.
Atlanta (-2) over NEW ORLEANS: Why does everyone think that the Saints are back? Did anyone watch them just mail in the game at Denver two weeks ago? I know they beat the Eagles in crucial game last Monday night, but that game was more about how pathetic the Eagles are at this point. The Falcons get a little revenge on the Saints for running up the score in New Orleans late in the season last year.
MINNESOTA (+3) over Detroit: Everyone that was on the Vikings bandwagon a few weeks ago has suddenly jumped off after watching the Vikings the past few weeks. I know Christian Ponder hasn't played well in about a month, but I think they will play really well this week at home. The Lions are back in the race at 4-4, but this week might be a tough one for them. I love the fact that the Vikings are getting points at home.
New York Jets (+6) over SEATTLE: This game goes two ways: Seattle wins big at home, or the Jets pull off the shocker. I'm taking the Jets because everyone loves the Seahawks in this game. Plus, can't you see Rex Ryan devising some sort of gameplan to contain and frustrate Russell Wilson? Also, this would be a typical spot for the Jets to invigorate their fanbase by winning this game in Seattle, and then they will let down that same fanbase by dropping a game at St. Louis next week.
Dallas (-2) over PHILLY: Two 3-5 teams meeting in a must see matchup. It is the game of the week featuring two of the most overhyped and disappointing teams of 2012. Only the Cowboys and Eagles could meet in a game with such huge ramifications. At least the Cowboys have shown at times that they are close to breaking through and becoming a playoff type team. The Eagles have looked shitty all season long. Take Dallas on the road, and if they win this game, then watch out because they could potentially get on a run.
St.Louis (+12) over SAN FRANCISCO: The Niners will win this game, but I'll grab the points for the Rams on the road. What happened to the Rams mojo after their 3-2 start? They won't win the game, but they will keep it closer than expected.
Houston (+2) over CHICAGO: The Bears are getting it done with their defense. They get stops, get after the quarterback, and create turnovers nonstop. Plus, when you get scores from your defense it makes things a lot easier for your offense. I think the Texans will find a way to win this game. Look for a solid day out of Arian Foster, and they will keep the Bears defense on their heels with the play action game. J.J. Watt and that defense will make Jay Cutler's night hell.
PITTSBURGH (-11) over Kansas City: The Steelers got themselves to 5-3, and now they have the hapless Chiefs coming into town for a Monday nighter. This has all the makings of a 27-3 win, and Pittsburgh will cruise to 6-3.
CAROLINA (+4) over Denver: This game scares me for one reason: Cam Newton. I know he has struggled at times this year, but he has the ability to take over a game at any moment. I wouldn't be surprised to see Cam put up a stat line like this against the Denver defense: 285 yards passing and 2 TDs/90 rushing and 1 TD. The Broncos haven't faced that kind of threat all season. This will be a tough one for the Broncos. Winning back-to-back road games is never easy in the NFL. This is a very dangerous game, and that is why I'm picking the Panthers at home.
Final Score: Panthers-27 Denver-21
Thursday, November 8, 2012
Thursday Night Football Pick-Week 10
Indy (-3) over JACKSONVILLE: There are three reasons why I'm taking the Colts on the road this week. First, the Jaguars absolutely suck. I haven't seen a franchise this low since the early 90s Colts and Patriots. They are lifeless, boring, and a non-factor in the NFL right now. Second, the Colts are riding the Chuck Pagano emotional train right now. You can't mess with that sort of stuff. Third, Andrew Luck is as good as advertised, and I'm in the mood to root for him on this crummy night in the Northeast. Take the Colts laying three on the road in another NFL Network Thursday night thriller.
Tuesday, November 6, 2012
Broncos Close Out the Bengals 31-23
The Broncos entered Sunday's game at Cincinnati at 4-3. The only thing that mattered was that they left Cincy at 5-3. "By Any Means Necessary" should have been the theme heading into this game. The Broncos did get that fifth win with a 31-23 victory. As Denver fell behind 20-17 early in the fourth quarter, you could just feel that Peyton Manning was about to put the game into his hands and win the game on his own. He did just that. That is what great quarterbacks do, and that is why the Broncos went after Manning so desperately. Manning's two touchdown passes erased the three point hole, and the Broncos were able to hold on for an all important road win, and they continued to hold a one game lead in the AFC West. The Broncos are 5-3 after eight games, and if they hold serve in the second half of the season, that would give them 10 wins and essentially a playoff berth. Here are my thoughts and opinions on the game.......
1) The Broncos controlled most of the first half, and if it weren't for two key drops by Brandon Stokley and Jacob Tamme, then the Broncos could have had a bigger lead than the 10-3 lead they entered halftime with. I was feeling pretty good at the half, and my confidence soared after Trindon Holliday took the second half kickoff all the way back for a touchdown to make it 17-3.
2) Speaking of Holliday, the guy has some big play ability in the return game, but he also makes you cringe. His misplay of a kickoff with the Broncos leading 17-13 was a big gaffe, and it paved the way for the Bengals to take a 20-17 lead early in the fourth quarter. Obviously, his kick return was a key moment in the game and gave the Broncos some breathing room in the third quarter, but I have the feeling that Holliday will be making me hold my breath everytime he is back to return a kick.
3) The one guy that scared me on the Bengals was A.J. Green. Green routinely beat Champ Bailey during the game, and he finished with just under 100 yards receiving and a touchdown. It felt like he had about 150 yards receiving, but that is what you expect from a guy of Green's caliber. He was the only guy on that Cincy offense that could beat the Broncos and he almost pulled it off.
4) The Broncos defense was lights out in the first half. They got pressure on Andy Dalton on numerous occasions, and Von Miller finished with three sacks. Their run defense was stout, and Chris Harris and Wesley Woodyard continue to stand out. The one thing about this Broncos defense is that it is going to give up plenty of yards, but they seem to have a knack of getting stops when they need to-especially in the second half. They did give up a touchdown drive after they took the 17-3 lead, but the other touchdown they gave up was on a drive that started deep in their own territory following Manning's second interception. They did a nice job of holding the lead once Denver got it back.
5) To show you how close all of these games are in the NFL think about the following sequences. At 17-10 in the third quarter, the Broncos were inside the 15, and Manning threw a pick to Terrance Newman in the endzone on a second down play. It was a great play by Newman because he beat Eric Decker to the spot. If the Broncos score there, then it is a 24-10 game and they probably win comfortably. The Bengals got momentum and got back into the game for good. Another key moment was in the fourth quarter. With Denver up 24-20, the Bengals faced a 3rd and 15. Dalton threw a perfect pass to Green over the middle for a first down that would have put the ball at midfield, but the play was called back because of a hold. The next play, Dalton threw an interception to Champ Bailey, and Manning finished off the drive with a touchdown pass to Eric Decker to make it 31-20 and effectively putting the game out of reach.
6) Manning was really good all day with the exception of his two picks. The first one was actually a better play on the ball on Newman, but you can't have redzone interceptions-especially when he had Willis McGahee wide open underneath for a walk in touchdown. The second pick was a bad throw by Manning because Newman wasn't fooled at all by Decker's double move, and that interception set up another Bengals touchdown that gave them the 20-17 lead. Outside of those two plays, Manning was great once again. He threw two touchdowns to Eric Decker, and his touchdown pass to Joel Dreesen was a great read and great play. After Manning's two picks, you could see how pissed off he was on the sideline. You knew he was going to come back and bury the Bengals. You could just see it coming. The next two drives he finished off with touchdown passes and put the game away. The great ones do that, and Manning is one of the best ever, so it really didn't surprise me.
7) Can the Broncos stop trying to run the ball on 3rd and long situations early in the game? Every week they always face third and long, and they always try to run the ball with McGahee. I understand that the run is designed to counter what the defense is showing, but every week they try it at least in those situations and it never works. You have Peyton Manning. Don't take the ball away from him!!! Let him throw for the first down.
8) The Broncos did suffer a blow on the injury front went Chris Kuper went down to an ankle injury. It looked bad during the game, but the prognosis is a high ankle sprain, and he will probably be out for four weeks. He should be back for the last four games and the December stretch run.
9) The bottom line is that the Broncos won, and they are 5-3. After facing a difficult first half of the season schedule-wise, they have positioned themselves nicely to win the AFC West. Any road game is a tough one in the NFL, and the Bengals proved that to be the case. After eight games, the Broncos offense is one of the top offenses in the NFL, and that is a result of having Peyton Manning at the controls. He has 20 touchdown passes already, and he is on pace to get 40. The Broncos record for TD passes in a season is 27. That record is held by John Elway and Jake Plummer. Manning might get 27 by Thanksgiving. Their receiving corps is solid, and McGahee seems to do just enough in the run game. The defense isn't great, but they seem to get the stops when they need it, and their entire defense is aided by Manning and the offense. The Broncos travel to Carolina next week for another early game on Sunday. Once again, the focus is going to be about getting on that plane back to Denver at 6-3.
1) The Broncos controlled most of the first half, and if it weren't for two key drops by Brandon Stokley and Jacob Tamme, then the Broncos could have had a bigger lead than the 10-3 lead they entered halftime with. I was feeling pretty good at the half, and my confidence soared after Trindon Holliday took the second half kickoff all the way back for a touchdown to make it 17-3.
2) Speaking of Holliday, the guy has some big play ability in the return game, but he also makes you cringe. His misplay of a kickoff with the Broncos leading 17-13 was a big gaffe, and it paved the way for the Bengals to take a 20-17 lead early in the fourth quarter. Obviously, his kick return was a key moment in the game and gave the Broncos some breathing room in the third quarter, but I have the feeling that Holliday will be making me hold my breath everytime he is back to return a kick.
3) The one guy that scared me on the Bengals was A.J. Green. Green routinely beat Champ Bailey during the game, and he finished with just under 100 yards receiving and a touchdown. It felt like he had about 150 yards receiving, but that is what you expect from a guy of Green's caliber. He was the only guy on that Cincy offense that could beat the Broncos and he almost pulled it off.
4) The Broncos defense was lights out in the first half. They got pressure on Andy Dalton on numerous occasions, and Von Miller finished with three sacks. Their run defense was stout, and Chris Harris and Wesley Woodyard continue to stand out. The one thing about this Broncos defense is that it is going to give up plenty of yards, but they seem to have a knack of getting stops when they need to-especially in the second half. They did give up a touchdown drive after they took the 17-3 lead, but the other touchdown they gave up was on a drive that started deep in their own territory following Manning's second interception. They did a nice job of holding the lead once Denver got it back.
5) To show you how close all of these games are in the NFL think about the following sequences. At 17-10 in the third quarter, the Broncos were inside the 15, and Manning threw a pick to Terrance Newman in the endzone on a second down play. It was a great play by Newman because he beat Eric Decker to the spot. If the Broncos score there, then it is a 24-10 game and they probably win comfortably. The Bengals got momentum and got back into the game for good. Another key moment was in the fourth quarter. With Denver up 24-20, the Bengals faced a 3rd and 15. Dalton threw a perfect pass to Green over the middle for a first down that would have put the ball at midfield, but the play was called back because of a hold. The next play, Dalton threw an interception to Champ Bailey, and Manning finished off the drive with a touchdown pass to Eric Decker to make it 31-20 and effectively putting the game out of reach.
6) Manning was really good all day with the exception of his two picks. The first one was actually a better play on the ball on Newman, but you can't have redzone interceptions-especially when he had Willis McGahee wide open underneath for a walk in touchdown. The second pick was a bad throw by Manning because Newman wasn't fooled at all by Decker's double move, and that interception set up another Bengals touchdown that gave them the 20-17 lead. Outside of those two plays, Manning was great once again. He threw two touchdowns to Eric Decker, and his touchdown pass to Joel Dreesen was a great read and great play. After Manning's two picks, you could see how pissed off he was on the sideline. You knew he was going to come back and bury the Bengals. You could just see it coming. The next two drives he finished off with touchdown passes and put the game away. The great ones do that, and Manning is one of the best ever, so it really didn't surprise me.
7) Can the Broncos stop trying to run the ball on 3rd and long situations early in the game? Every week they always face third and long, and they always try to run the ball with McGahee. I understand that the run is designed to counter what the defense is showing, but every week they try it at least in those situations and it never works. You have Peyton Manning. Don't take the ball away from him!!! Let him throw for the first down.
8) The Broncos did suffer a blow on the injury front went Chris Kuper went down to an ankle injury. It looked bad during the game, but the prognosis is a high ankle sprain, and he will probably be out for four weeks. He should be back for the last four games and the December stretch run.
9) The bottom line is that the Broncos won, and they are 5-3. After facing a difficult first half of the season schedule-wise, they have positioned themselves nicely to win the AFC West. Any road game is a tough one in the NFL, and the Bengals proved that to be the case. After eight games, the Broncos offense is one of the top offenses in the NFL, and that is a result of having Peyton Manning at the controls. He has 20 touchdown passes already, and he is on pace to get 40. The Broncos record for TD passes in a season is 27. That record is held by John Elway and Jake Plummer. Manning might get 27 by Thanksgiving. Their receiving corps is solid, and McGahee seems to do just enough in the run game. The defense isn't great, but they seem to get the stops when they need it, and their entire defense is aided by Manning and the offense. The Broncos travel to Carolina next week for another early game on Sunday. Once again, the focus is going to be about getting on that plane back to Denver at 6-3.
Friday, November 2, 2012
Week 9 Picks
The first weekend in November is usually a special one. The NFL season begins to hit full swing, the games get bigger, the weather is perfect, and everything just feels right. This year is a completely different story. As a resident of Long Island, we are in the midst of recovering from Hurricane Sandy. Sandy has destroyed the Tri-State area, leaving many in its path without power, housing, food and gas. It is like a movie down in this area. It feels like a war zone. The last time it felt this surreal was the few days after September 11th. Instead of getting ready for a big-time football weekend, people are trying to pick up the pieces to their lives. It is a really sad scene around the Northeast. Those images you saw of Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans are carbon copies of what we see in the great Manhattan area, the surrounding boroughs, and along the Jersey Shore. Perhaps this week's games will serve as a distraction in the wake of this disaster, but it will be hard for many to see the games because so many people are without power. I am one of the lucky ones who have power, but watching the games on Sunday won't be the same. It won't feel like a football Sunday. Hopefully, for a few hours though it will somehow feel like one of those classic November Sundays that we are accustomed to. Anything to make us smile and bring us back to some sort of normalcy will help at this point. Onto the games for Week 9....
Last Week's Record: 5-9
Overall Record: 51-61-5
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)
Arizona (+10) over GREEN BAY: The Packers failed to cover a big spread last week at home to the Jags, so the logic is that they will get it done this week at home to the fading Cardinals. I'm going against that trend. Yes, the Packers will win, but this game feels a lot closer than the 10 points that are out there. Look for a late back door cover by the Cardinals.
Miami (-2) over INDY: Two surprising teams at 4-3 meeting in a big game in the AFC. This is definitely a fun game to keep an eye on. The winner of this game goes to 5-3 and has a clear path to the playoffs as a wild card. I'll take the Dolphins and their defense to outlast the Colts and Andrew Luck.
Baltimore (-3) over CLEVELAND: I understand that these two teams played a really competitive game in their prior meeting over a month ago. I know that the Browns had the Ravens on their heels in the fourth quarter of that game, but I just can't trust the Browns. How could you? Be safe and smart and take the Ravens on the road.
HOUSTON (-10) over Buffalo: I have given the Bills a lot of chances to redeem themselves this year and they keep on disappointing me. This is a tough game for them to win. Ryan Fitzpatrick on the road is the number one reason you should be backing the Texans. The second reason is this: Ryan Fitzpatrick on the road against J.J. Watt and that Texans defense. This game will be close in the fourth quarter, but look for a late Fitzpatrick turnover to seal it for Houston.
Carolina (+3) over WASHINGTON: I don't know why, but I'm taking the Panthers one last time on the road. I know they are done in the NFC South, and my prediction of a division championship is out the window, but are they really a 1-6 team? I'll give them a chance this week on the road in a game where no one thinks they will win.
JACKSONVILLE(+5) over Detroit: The Lions have won three games all by close margins and late in the game. They haven't played like their 2011 version at all this year. Calvin Johnson isn't producing Megatron-type numbers, and now there is a chance he won't play this week. All this adds up to this score flashing across the bottom line during the early games: Jacksonville-17 Detroit-14: Matt Stafford- 4 turnovers. Take the Jags getting points at home.
TENNESSEE (+4) over Chicago: I know the Bears are 6-1, but Jay Cutler still hasn't played that well this year. The story with the Bears is the same: Their defense is their strength. This week they face a tricky test on the road with the Titans. Tennessee lost a tough one in overtime to the Colts last week, and now the Titans try to dig out of the 3-5 hole. They start by pulling off the upset at home. Upset of the week: Titans-22 Bears-20.
SEATTLE (-4) over Minnesota: At first glance this one seems like a no-brainer. Take the Seahawks at home laying only four points. When you dig deeper, you start to build a case for the Vikings. They have had 10 days to get ready for this one after the stinker they played against Tampa Bay on a Thursday night at home. Adrian Peterson looks better than ever. Christian Ponder is ready for a bounce back game. Percy Harvin will continue to baffle defenses. With all that said, look for the Seahawks to take care of business. It won't be easy, but they will get the job done and get to 5-4.
Tampa Bay (+2) over OAKLAND: Look who snuck through the back door in the AFC playoff picture: The Oakland Raiders. This is a must win game for the Raiders if they have any hopes of making a legitimate run to the playoffs this year. They can get to 4-4 with a win at home as a favorite. The problem is that the Bucs are also a feisty team and a sleeper to make a run at the playoffs in the NFC. Look for a close game, but watch out for a late Buccaneers rally, and Josh Freeman makes one or two big plays down the stretch to steal a victory in the Black Hole.
Pittsburgh (+3) over NY GIANTS: I have like the Steelers all week, and I am taking them on the road this week. First, I think Hurricane Sandy had to effect the Giants this week in some shape or form. Two, the Steelers aren't that good, but Big Ben is insanely good, and he is about to put the Steelers on his back for the rest of the season. Plus, the Giants just don't play great as favorites at home. The Steelers are 4-3, but they feel like they are a 2-5 team. They usually don't play great on the road this year, but this week their fortunes change. Take the Steelers and the points.
ATLANTA (-4) over Dallas: Everyone expects the Cowboys to come out on Sunday night and show the world how talented they are in handing the Falcons their first loss. I don't see it happening because right now the Cowboys are in a funk. I thought about taking Dallas in this spot, and I understand that they are desperate, but the Falcons are simply too much for them at this point in the season. Take the Falcons at home because you are only laying four points anyway.
Philly (+3) over NEW ORLEANS: The Saints had that look like they were packing it in for 2012 during their loss to the Broncos last Sunday night. I am going to give the Eagles one more shot. If they don't get it done this week, then I am officially kicking the dirt on their grave this year. This game is a matchup of two of the biggest disappointments of 2012. I'm taking the Eagles to pull off the upset on the road in a must-win for both teams.
CINCY (+4) over Denver: This line jumped from 2.5 earlier in the week. As a Broncos fan, this game scares me for a number of reasons. First, the Broncos never, ever play well on the road in the early game. They always seem to sleepwalk through these games no matter who they are playing. Secondly, the Bengals have a pretty good defense, and they arguably have the best playmaker on the field in A.J. Green. Third, everyone has been kissing the Broncos butts all week long. After pasting the Saints at home, people are already talking about how the Broncos are now in the elite class of the AFC. Thanks for all of the praise, but I don't think we are there just yet with this team. I mean we needed a comeback for the ages to beat the Chargers two weeks ago, and we just buried a 2-4 Saints team at home. It is not like the Broncos beat the 72 Dolphins and the 85 Bears in back-to-back weeks. Anyway, this game scares me because that is how the NFL works. Once everyone starts to praise your team, they then go out and drop a stinkbomb on the road to a 3-4 team.
Final Score: Bengals-24 Broncos-21
Last Week's Record: 5-9
Overall Record: 51-61-5
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)
Arizona (+10) over GREEN BAY: The Packers failed to cover a big spread last week at home to the Jags, so the logic is that they will get it done this week at home to the fading Cardinals. I'm going against that trend. Yes, the Packers will win, but this game feels a lot closer than the 10 points that are out there. Look for a late back door cover by the Cardinals.
Miami (-2) over INDY: Two surprising teams at 4-3 meeting in a big game in the AFC. This is definitely a fun game to keep an eye on. The winner of this game goes to 5-3 and has a clear path to the playoffs as a wild card. I'll take the Dolphins and their defense to outlast the Colts and Andrew Luck.
Baltimore (-3) over CLEVELAND: I understand that these two teams played a really competitive game in their prior meeting over a month ago. I know that the Browns had the Ravens on their heels in the fourth quarter of that game, but I just can't trust the Browns. How could you? Be safe and smart and take the Ravens on the road.
HOUSTON (-10) over Buffalo: I have given the Bills a lot of chances to redeem themselves this year and they keep on disappointing me. This is a tough game for them to win. Ryan Fitzpatrick on the road is the number one reason you should be backing the Texans. The second reason is this: Ryan Fitzpatrick on the road against J.J. Watt and that Texans defense. This game will be close in the fourth quarter, but look for a late Fitzpatrick turnover to seal it for Houston.
Carolina (+3) over WASHINGTON: I don't know why, but I'm taking the Panthers one last time on the road. I know they are done in the NFC South, and my prediction of a division championship is out the window, but are they really a 1-6 team? I'll give them a chance this week on the road in a game where no one thinks they will win.
JACKSONVILLE(+5) over Detroit: The Lions have won three games all by close margins and late in the game. They haven't played like their 2011 version at all this year. Calvin Johnson isn't producing Megatron-type numbers, and now there is a chance he won't play this week. All this adds up to this score flashing across the bottom line during the early games: Jacksonville-17 Detroit-14: Matt Stafford- 4 turnovers. Take the Jags getting points at home.
TENNESSEE (+4) over Chicago: I know the Bears are 6-1, but Jay Cutler still hasn't played that well this year. The story with the Bears is the same: Their defense is their strength. This week they face a tricky test on the road with the Titans. Tennessee lost a tough one in overtime to the Colts last week, and now the Titans try to dig out of the 3-5 hole. They start by pulling off the upset at home. Upset of the week: Titans-22 Bears-20.
SEATTLE (-4) over Minnesota: At first glance this one seems like a no-brainer. Take the Seahawks at home laying only four points. When you dig deeper, you start to build a case for the Vikings. They have had 10 days to get ready for this one after the stinker they played against Tampa Bay on a Thursday night at home. Adrian Peterson looks better than ever. Christian Ponder is ready for a bounce back game. Percy Harvin will continue to baffle defenses. With all that said, look for the Seahawks to take care of business. It won't be easy, but they will get the job done and get to 5-4.
Tampa Bay (+2) over OAKLAND: Look who snuck through the back door in the AFC playoff picture: The Oakland Raiders. This is a must win game for the Raiders if they have any hopes of making a legitimate run to the playoffs this year. They can get to 4-4 with a win at home as a favorite. The problem is that the Bucs are also a feisty team and a sleeper to make a run at the playoffs in the NFC. Look for a close game, but watch out for a late Buccaneers rally, and Josh Freeman makes one or two big plays down the stretch to steal a victory in the Black Hole.
Pittsburgh (+3) over NY GIANTS: I have like the Steelers all week, and I am taking them on the road this week. First, I think Hurricane Sandy had to effect the Giants this week in some shape or form. Two, the Steelers aren't that good, but Big Ben is insanely good, and he is about to put the Steelers on his back for the rest of the season. Plus, the Giants just don't play great as favorites at home. The Steelers are 4-3, but they feel like they are a 2-5 team. They usually don't play great on the road this year, but this week their fortunes change. Take the Steelers and the points.
ATLANTA (-4) over Dallas: Everyone expects the Cowboys to come out on Sunday night and show the world how talented they are in handing the Falcons their first loss. I don't see it happening because right now the Cowboys are in a funk. I thought about taking Dallas in this spot, and I understand that they are desperate, but the Falcons are simply too much for them at this point in the season. Take the Falcons at home because you are only laying four points anyway.
Philly (+3) over NEW ORLEANS: The Saints had that look like they were packing it in for 2012 during their loss to the Broncos last Sunday night. I am going to give the Eagles one more shot. If they don't get it done this week, then I am officially kicking the dirt on their grave this year. This game is a matchup of two of the biggest disappointments of 2012. I'm taking the Eagles to pull off the upset on the road in a must-win for both teams.
CINCY (+4) over Denver: This line jumped from 2.5 earlier in the week. As a Broncos fan, this game scares me for a number of reasons. First, the Broncos never, ever play well on the road in the early game. They always seem to sleepwalk through these games no matter who they are playing. Secondly, the Bengals have a pretty good defense, and they arguably have the best playmaker on the field in A.J. Green. Third, everyone has been kissing the Broncos butts all week long. After pasting the Saints at home, people are already talking about how the Broncos are now in the elite class of the AFC. Thanks for all of the praise, but I don't think we are there just yet with this team. I mean we needed a comeback for the ages to beat the Chargers two weeks ago, and we just buried a 2-4 Saints team at home. It is not like the Broncos beat the 72 Dolphins and the 85 Bears in back-to-back weeks. Anyway, this game scares me because that is how the NFL works. Once everyone starts to praise your team, they then go out and drop a stinkbomb on the road to a 3-4 team.
Final Score: Bengals-24 Broncos-21
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