Shanahan Fired as Denver Head Coach

December 30, 2008. The day that might live infamy for the Denver Broncos. As a Bronco fan, I never thought I would be watching ESPN and see "Broncos Fire Mike Shanahan." I always thought Shanny would retire from Denver with another Super Bowl Trophy under his arm and walk away a champion. That happened to John Elway but it didn't happen to Mike Shanahan. First, I will always be a Shanahan fan. The guy is the greatest coach in Denver history. He is one of the best coaches in the NFL right now, and I will always hope that he does well. I will miss him because he was really one of the faces of the Broncos Organization. It will be so weird to watch a game without him on the sideline. I think this is a mistake by Pat Bowlen. I think you needed to give Shanny more time to build this young team back up. There is no one out there that is proven that will come in and do the coaching job that Shanny has done. Second, I also understand why Bowlen did this. 10 years, 1 division title, and 1 playoff win will get a lot of coaches fired. The media and the fans have grown tired of the mediocre and under achieiving Broncos. Sometimes a coach and a message gets stale. The bottom line is that there are a lot of people in Denver who are happy with this move. Third, where does Denver go from here? I think Bowlen will and should hire a real General Manager. I would go after Scott Pioli. Then, I would hire a young assistant. The names would be down to three-Steve Spagnuolo, Jim Schwartz, and Josh McDaniels. It is time to restructure the Front Office and the organization. Lastly, on a personal note, I can't believe how hard this move has hit me. I was a Shanahan guy and I always defended him. He was the last link to the Broncos Super Bowl teams. Elway retired and he was followed by Terrell Davis, Shannon Sharpe, Ed McCaffrey, and Rod Smith. Brian Griese, Jake Plummer, Clinton Portis, Bill Romanowski, Steve Atwater, and Gary Zimmerman all came and went. The one constant was Shanahan. If you are building a Mt. Rushmore for the Broncos, Elway is first and Shanahan is second. I will always appreciate Shanny and what he did. I will always look fondly at that three year run from 1996 to 1998. Thanks for the memories, Mike. I will miss you, but it is a new era in Denver. The Broncos start over and look towards the future.

Collapse is Complete for Broncos in '08

The Broncos 2008 season ended in dissapointing fashion on Sunday Night. The Broncos got whipped by the San Diego Chargers 52-21 and finished 8-8 and out of the playoffs. Denver led the AFC West the whole season, only to see San Diego come back from a 4-8 record and win the division. It was the biggest collapse in Denver history, and in the annals of the NFL. The Broncos were 8-5 and SD was 5-8. All Denver needed was 1 win or 1 Charger loss and they would have clinched the West-it didn't happen and the Broncos will have a long offseason to think about it. My thoughts are wide ranging and obviously I am dissapointed but let take on some issues. First, as far as the game with SD goes, you could see this coming and it was no surprise that SD buried Denver. The defense couldn't stop the Charger offense and the game was never in doubt. The Chargers are better then the Broncos and Denver's defense cannot matchup with San Diego's offense-simple as that. Second, Mike Shanahan should not be let go as Head Coach. Who would replace him? You're not gonna get Bill Cowher. You don't want Holmgren or Mariucci. Why take a chance with the hot assistant (Spagnuolo, Jason Garrett, Josh McDaniels)? The hot assistant who has no HC experience has not worked out lately(Crennel, Mangini etc..). The bottom line is Shanny is a good coach (not Great anymore and certainly not the Mastermind) and if he has talent he can win. He needs help in the personnel department, and I'm not counting "Yes" men like the Goodmans and Brian Xanders. He needs a real personnel guy-Michael Lombardi or Bill Polian types come to mind. Shanny needs help in this area big time. Third, Bob Slowik must go. When you give up over 450 points and the worst total since 1963, you don't deserve to be the Defensive Coordinator. Denver blew a chance to bring in a big time DC last year and they are paying for it. Fuck it, bring back Greg Robinson. Next, we need to draft a defensive player with our first three picks. We need a legit MLB, a Safety, and a defensive tackle who can stuff the run. We need to get better fundamentally on defense, and we need to get personnel that flys to the ball and can create some turnovers. The bottom line is that our players on defense flat out stink (Excluding Champ Bailey). We need better personnel. The Broncos have to get better on defense and the only place to go from here is up. If they improve a little bit in 2 areas-Takeaways and 3rd downs- then their defense will improve in '09. Next, Prater must go. He is awful, and we need a new, reliable kicker. Finally, this season was disappointing and ended terribly. It is the first season that Denver literally drove me to drink every Sunday. It will be hard to get over this year, but there is some hope. We a good young QB, talented Wideouts, a very good O-Line ,and some options at RB. 2009 will be a huge year for the Denver organization. The preparation for 2009 starts today. It is always the darkest before the dawn.

Week 17 Picks!!!

I can't believe it is Week 17 of the NFL season. No sport goes faster then the NFL. Anyway, every year Week 17 can be tricky. Some teams have clinched and are resting players. A lot of teams are already eliminated from the playoff race and are playing out the string. Some teams have to win their game and get help from other teams to get in, and some teams are in the "Win and In" situation. A lot of times Week 17 looks easy to predict on paper, but some crazy upsets and shocking results take place. 2002 might have been one of the wildest. The Jets won the AFC East after the Pats knocked off Miami and Cleveland beat Atlanta. In 2003, the Vikings got beat by the last place Cardinals on the last play of the game. The loss gave Green Bay the division title. In 2006, Denver, Tennessee, Cincinnati, and Jacksonville all lost, paving the way for the Chiefs to sneak in. What do I see happening this year? I think it will play out this way:
NFC North:
Vikings will defeat the Giants and the Texans will beat the Bears (Vikings win division and the Bears are eliminated from the playoffs)
NFC South:
Carolina wins over the Saints and clinches the 2 seed
NFC Wild Card:
Dallas beats Philly to clinch the 6 seed
AFC EAST:
Jets beat Miami and New England beats Buffalo (NE wins the division)
AFC Wild Card:
Baltimore beats Jacksonville and eliminates the Jets and Miami
AFC West:
San Diego beats Denver and wins the divsion.

Last Week's Record: 6-10
Overall Record: 110-126-11
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

TAMPA BAY (-11) over Oakland
GREEN BAY (-9) over Detroit
Dallas (+1) over PHILADELPHIA
New York Giants (+7) over MINNESOTA
HOUSTON (-3) over Chicago
Carolina (-3) over NEW ORLEANS
ATLANTA (-12) over St. Louis
Kansas City (+3) over CINCINNATI
Jacksonville (+12) over BALTIMORE
INDIANAPOLIS (+3) over Tennessee
PITTSBURGH (-9) over Cleveland
NEW YORK JETS (-2) over Miami
BUFFALO (+6) over New England
ARIZONA (-6) over Seattle
SAN FRANCISCO (-3) over Washington
SAN DIEGO (-8) over Denver

Chargers-Broncos AFC West Title Match

Here we are at Week 17 and the Broncos and the Chargers will meet on Sunday Night Football for the AFC West Crown. It is a playoff game for these teams. Nothing else affects this game and it is a "Win and You're in, Lose and You're Done" game. The Broncos have led the AFC West the entire season. They were 8-5 and San Diego was 5-8 at one point less than a month ago. If the Broncos lose on Sunday, they would be the first team to lose a division with a three game lead and three games to go. The collapse would be the worst in franchise history. The Broncos loss to the Bills in Denver last week was one of the worst defeats ever in Bronco history. San Diego is favored by 9 points. The Chargers are red hot and Denver is in a downward spiral. Nothing looks good for Denver on Sunday Night. The game is in San Diego (The Whale's Vagina), the Chargers are on a roll, Philip Rivers is staking his claim to the MVP, LT is getting back on track, and the Charger defense is suddenly playing well. Every expert on ESPN or NFL Network is picking San Diego. The Chargers' message boards have posts like "Are you even nervous for this game?" and "I think we will beat Indy in the first round." Is this one of those classic "Everyone is picking one team and then they get shocked" games? The only way Denver stays competitive in this game is if they can force one turnover or get one big break in the first half. Denver will be able to move the ball on SD, and Rivers will certainly pick apart Denver's secondary, but who will get the turnovers and breaks in the game. Logic says San Diego, but if Denver can find a way to cause a turnover, then the Broncos will have a chance to pull the upset. Look at the games on the road against the Jets, Falcons, and Browns. The Broncos got big turnovers in those games and it helped them win all three. If the Broncos don't get a turnover, then they will get buried. The Charger offense will be too much for Denver's defense. The Broncos might have to score 4o to win this game and that won't happen. Look for a big day from Rivers, Vincent Jackson, and Darren Sproles(The Bronco Killer). The defense will frustrate Cutler into a back-breaking Interception and San Diego will partying with their AFC West hats and t-shirts on the sidelines. The aftermath will be interesting in Denver. Losing the division title to the once-dead Chargers at 8-8, might set the Bronco franchise back another number of years. The bottom line is that this is the Chargers' Division, and it was all year. Denver caught a break in the "Ed Hochuli Game" and San Diego lost some close games throughout the year. Denver's defense and turnover problems (Getting Takeaways on Defense and Giveaways on Offense) killed the Broncos all year. Will Bob Slowik get fired at the end? Will this be Shanahan's last game as Bronco Head Coach? How many defensive players get sent packing? We have all these questions to answer all off season. I would love to say that Denver will step up and pull the upset; however, this Denver team simply isn't good enough to do that. It will be a long night in San Diego on Sunday, and it will be a long, long Winter and off season in Denver.
FINAL SCORE: San Diego:41 Denver:20

Mile High Choke Job

Sunday's 30-23 loss to Buffalo was one of the most devastating losses I have ever endured as a Bronco fan. This one ranks up there with the three Super Bowls in the 80s, the 1993 Season Finale and Wild Card loss to the Raiders, the 1996 AFC Divisional loss to the Jaguars, the 2005 AFC Championship Game, and the 2006 season finale against the Niners. This game was brutal. Denver got off to a fantastic start. Up 13-0 and the defense was stuffing the shit out of the Bills. Normally, when a team playing out the string (Buffalo) gets down early like that, they fold up the tent and mail in the game. However, with a defense like Denver's, no lead or game is ever out of reach. The main turning point in this game was the sequence at the end of the half. With Denver up 13-3, the second quarter was winding down. With about two minutes to go, Shanahan ordered Matt Prater to try a 54 yard field goal on a cold and windy day. Considering the fact that Prater is awful from 40 to 49 yards, why would Shanny even contemplate this move. Well, he did and of course Prater missed and Buffalo had good field position. Of course they drove down and scored a touchdown. Thrown in the fact that Buffalo received the ball at the half, and this game was tied 13-13 before Denver even got the ball back again. The rest played out like a typical Bronco 2008 shootout. Jay Cutler's 4th down pass to Brandon Stokley hit him in the hands in the end zone, but it was broken up by Buffalo's Reggie Corner and that was it. I stared in disbelief as the Denver season looks like it hit the shits. I was about to cry for the first time since my senior year in high school after the '96 loss to the Jags. I was devastated. How could this happen? For the second time in three years, HOW THE FUCK COULD THEY CHOKE AGAIN? AT HOME!!!! I'm not going to start talking about what needs to be done for this team to make the playoffs in 2009(Quick Hint: Pack your bags, Slowik). I will wait until the 2008 season ends to do that(Quick Hint #2: This Sunday at SD). The bottom line is Denver's Defense is the Achilles Heel to this team and the season. All year they give up big play after big play. They can't get to the QB, and more importantly they don't force turnovers. I could care less about yards allowed. The real Defensive stats for me are: Points Allowed and Turnovers. Denver has 11 turnovers forced in 15 games. The Offense and Cutler always have pressure on them to score and when they don't score, the Defense never holds an opponent in a big spot. As for this week, maybe it is destiny to face off with San Diego in Week 17 in a rematch of the Ed Hochuli Bowl. I will talk about that game later in the week, but put it this way: Denver is done, finished and fried. There is no way San Diego is going to lose this game on Sunday Night (Thanks NBC). I'll have my preview of this game on Friday-along with the rest of my Week 17 picks. Here is my predictions for the playoffs based on my thoughts on the Week 17 games. Enjoy!

AFC
1-Tennessee (14-2)
2-Pittsburgh (12-4)
3-New England (11-5)
4-San Diego (8-8)
5-Indy (11-5)
6-Baltimore (11-5)

NFC
1-Giants (12-4)
2-Carolina (12-4)
3-Minnesota (10-6)
4-Arizona (9-7)
5-Atlanta (11-5)
6-Dallas (10-6)

Playoff Matchups:
Saturday 1/3/09
4:00pm-NBC- Atlanta @ Arizona
8:00pm-NBC- Indy @ San Diego

Sunday 1/4/09
1:00pm-CBS- Baltimore @ New England
4:00pm-FOX- Dallas @ Minnesota

NFL Week 16 Lines!

Last Week's Record: 7-6-3
Overall Record: 104-116-11
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

JACKSONVILLE (+6) over Indianapolis
DALLAS (-4) over Baltimore
TENNESSEE (+1) over Pittsburgh
Miami (-3) over KANSAS CITY
Arizona (+8) over NEW ENGLAND
CLEVELAND (-3) over Cincinnati
WASHINGTON (+5) over Philadelphia
San Francisco (-5) over ST. LOUIS
Atlanta (+3) over MINNESOTA
DETROIT (+7) over New Orleans
NEW YORK GIANTS (-3) over Carolina
New York Jets (-4) over SEATTLE
Houston (-7) over OAKLAND
DENVER (-6) over Buffalo (I know this line is way to high, but fuck it I'm taking Denver)
San Diego (+3) over TAMPA BAY
CHICAGO (-4) over Green Bay

2 for 1 Special for Broncos

The 2008 Denver Broncos have a chance to win the AFC West outright this Sunday at Invesco against the 6-8 Buffalo Bills. If I told you this in August, you would have signed for this in a heartbeat. The bottom line is that it comes down to this game. I'm not even gonna get into last Sunday's loss to Carolina 30-10. That was a classic "Mail It In On The Road" game. Throw in the fact that the entire Denver team was thinking that KC was on the verge of knocking off San Diego and clinching the West for the Broncos. After KC blew a 21-3 lead (Thanks Herm Edwards) San Diego still had life, and Denver basically said "There is no way we are beating Carolina, let's just get out of here and try to clinch the division against the struggling Bills next week." Look, we have been here before. In Week 17 of the 2006 season, Denver was 9-6 and hosting the hapless 6-9 49ers. We all know what happened-Denver blows a 13-0 lead and loses the game in OT, gets eliminated from playoff contention (KC snuck in ,Thanks Herm) and Darrent Williams was shot and killed that night. I still don't think the organization has recovered. This Sunday is a chance to erase the last two and half years of inconsistent, below average, and head-scratching Broncos football. This game is huge for Shanny and Pat Bowlen. This game could define the Cutler, Marshall, DJ, Champ, Dumerville Core. I don't even know how this game will play out. I could see Denver winning comfortably (317), really close (23-20) or getting blown out again at home (27-10). The bottom line is that this is one of the biggest games in Denver Broncos history. If Denver loses, there is no way they go to San Diego and beat the Chargers for the AFC West title. Every Bronco fan needs this. We need to win the West. We need to walk into San Diego in Week 17 with a the West wrapped up and big "FU" on our chest. We need to have some optimism put back into this organization. Elway wouldn't lose a game like this, so it is time Cutler made his first true mark. I want to be celebrating with a beer in my hand on Sunday night and ordering my 2008 AFC West Division Champs T-shirt online. At home, in Denver, in Mile High, with a chance to win the division......Finish the job, Put it away, Take care of business.......

NFL Week 15 Picks!

Last Week's Record: 8-8
Overall Record: 97-110-8

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

CHICAGO (-3) over New Orleans
JACKSONVILLE (+2) over Green Bay
INDIANAPOLIS (-17) over Detroit
Washington (-7) over CINCINNATI
Tampa Bay (+3) over ATLANTA
San Francisco (+7) over MIAMI
Seattle (-3) over ST. LOUIS
NEW YORK JETS (-7) over Buffalo
Tennessee (-3) over HOUSTON
Pittsburgh (+3) over BALTIMORE
CAROLINA (-7) over Denver
KANSAS CITY (+6) over San Diego
ARIZONA (-3) over Minnesota
New England (-7) over OAKLAND
New York Giants (+3) over DALLAS
PHILADELPHIA (-14) over Cleveland

Down the Stretch for the Broncos!

Denver's 24-17 win over Kansas City at Mile High on Sunday moved the Broncos one step closer to an AFC West Division Crown. After Jay Cutler throw a Pick Six, KC led 10-0 in the first quarter. Denver looked like they were headed for another disaster at home to a shit team. From that point on, Denver really took control of the game and got the win. Some good points about the game were that Cutler played great and Brandon Marshall was fantastic -including two touchdown catches. Also, the defense didn't allow a point in the second half, and they stopped KC when they needed to in the fourth quarter. The negative part of the game was the fact that Peyton Hillis was lost for the season with a hamstring injury. Denver lost their sixth tailback this season. Hillis was really running well for Denver in their one back set. He was physical, and he was constantly moving the chains. It will be a big time loss for the Broncos. Now we turn to Tatum Bell and hope that Selvin Young can come back this week. The problem is that both of them are basically the same type of back. This will play a role down the stretch for sure. As far as this week, Denver goes back on the road against a tough opponent. Carolina looked great against Tampa Bay on Monday Night, and the Panthers are just a physical team. Denver could be in trouble, but they have played well on the road against the Jets and Falcons, so maybe they have a little "Road Warrior" mentality going for them. As far as the playoff picture is concerned, Denver's magic number is at 1. Now that the Jets have come back to the pack, the Broncos can hopefully win the West and maybe even move up a seed to number 3. All that doesn't matter if they can't take care of business this week in Carolina.

Playoff Projections (After 13 games)
AFC
1-Tennessee (12-1)
2-Pittsburgh (10-3)
3-Denver or SD
4-Jets (8-5)
5-Indy (9-4)
6-Baltimore (9-4)

NFC
1-Giants (11-2)
2-Carolina (10-3)
3-Arizona (8-5)
4-Minnesota (8-5)
5-Tampa Bay (9-4)
6-Dallas (8-5)

Miracle in the Meadowlands and Week 14 Picks!

There hasn't been a more up and down Bronco team in my history of being a fan. All week long the Jets were being crowned the kings of the AFC. There was no way that Denver was going into the Meadowlands and beating the red-hot Jets. In fact, all of the newspapers in New York were proclaiming that it was going to be a party like atmosphere at Giants Stadium on Sunday. I guess the old saying is right: "That's why they play the games." Denver outgunned and dominated the Jets in a 34-17 victory. Is this the win that propels the Broncos? Denver is too inconsistent to say that, but this win-coupled with another San Diego meltdown- has the Broncos in line to win the AFC West. A few thoughts about the game. First, the weather completely affected the Jets more than it did Denver. Denver was able to execute its' gameplan and Brett Favre looked terrible in the wind and rain. Second, Denver got up early 7-0 on a Vernon Fox fumble return, and then they responded to the Jet touchdown with a Cutler to Royal 60 yard hookup. That was a huge play and put Denver up 14-7. The next big moment came when the Jets were driving deep inside of Denver territory following a Cutler pick in the Jet endzone. The Bronco defense forced a sack and made the Jets kick a field goal to make the score 27-17. The Jets were still two scores down. The final big play was when Denver stopped the Jets on fourth down early in the fourth quarter, and Cutler hit Brandon Stokley with a TD on 3rd down to put the dagger in the hearts of the Jets. Overall, it was a huge win for Denver, and they must keep this going. It doesn't matter who Denver plays-this week 2-10 KC comes rolling into Invesco- it just matters how they play in that game. If the offense doesn't make mistakes early in the game, and they get in rhythm, then Denver can play with anyone. Onto the picks:

Last Week's Record: 9-7
Overall Record: 89-102-8
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

Oakland (+10) over SAN DIEGO
INDIANAPOLIS (-13) over Cincinnati
Jacksonville (+6) over CHICAGO
Houston (+6) over GREEN BAY
TENNESSEE (-14) over Cleveland
DETROIT (+9) over Minnesota
Washington (+6) over BALTIMORE
NEW YORK GIANTS (-7) over Philadelphia
NEW ORLEANS (-3) over Atlanta
New York Jets (-4 ) over SAN FRANCISCO
BUFFALO (-1) over Miami
Kansas City (+9) over DENVER
St. Louis (+14) over ARIZONA
PITTSBURGH (-3) over Dallas
New England (-4) over SEATTLE
CAROLINA (-3) over Tampa Bay

Week 13 Picks!

Thanksgiving time in the NFL and it is time for Week 13 Picks!
Last Week's Record: 8-7-1
Overall Record: 80-95-8

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

Tennessee (-11) over DETROIT
Seattle (+12) over DALLAS
PHILADELPHIA (-2) over Arizona
NEW YORK JETS (-8) over Denver
BUFFALO (-6) over San Francisco
New Orleans (+4) over TAMPA BAY
Carolina (+3) over GREEN BAY
WASHINGTON (+4) over New York Giants
ST. LOUIS (+8) 0ver Miami
Baltimore (-7) over Cincinnati
CLEVELAND (+5) over Indianapolis
SAN DIEGO (-5) over Atlanta
Pittsburgh (+1) over NEW ENGLAND
Kansas City (+3) over OAKLAND
Chicago (+3) over MINNESOTA
Jacksonville (+3) over HOUSTON

Embarrased at Mile High

Just when you think that the Broncos might be getting on a roll, they go out a lay an egg against the hated Raiders. The 31-10 loss at the hands of Oakland on Sunday was not surprising at all. The 2008 Broncos are the most up and down Denver team I have ever watched in my history of being a Bronco Fan. One week their offense is lights out and mistake free, the next week they turn it over and can't even move the ball. We all know their defense is bad, but to give up 24 points to the Raiders is sad. Throw in the fact that our special teams killed us all day (2 missed field goals and 1 punt return for a TD) and it had all the makings of one of the ugliest home losses in a long time. At least last year when they got killed 41-3 by the Chargers at home, San Diego was a good team. At 6-5 the Broncos stand alone atop the AFC West only because the Chargers are an underachieving 4-7. The outlook for the rest of the year is pretty tough to figure out. Look at Denver's schedule: at Jets, KC, at Carolina, Buffalo, at San Diego. Even if they win the home games, which road game are they winning to finish 9-7? Each game and each week is different. I look at this way, if Denver doesn't turn the ball over and their defense can limit the offense to more field goals instead of touchdowns on every drive, then maybe they have a chance to be in every game. It is frustrating because if Denver had beaten either KC, Jax, or Oak, they would be 7-4 and in the driver's seat. San Diego's schedule is set up like this: Atl, Oak, at KC, at Tampa, Denver. I think the Chargers will be 7-7 going to Tampa on Dec. 21. The last game of the season could be for all of the marbles in the AFC West. Do I want to make the playoffs as an 8-8 or 9-7 division winner? Hell yeah! Just give me something to root for and I will be happy. As for this week, Denver is in for a world of hurt. Going to New York against the red-hot Jets is going to be very tough. I think Denver is in big trouble. We'll see.

Playoff Projections:
AFC
1-Ten
2-Jets
3-Pitt
4-San Diego
5-Indy
6-Pats

NFC
1-Giants
2-Carolina
3-Arizona
4-Chicago
5-Tampa Bay
6-Washington

Week 12 Picks!

Last Week's Record: 4-11-0
Overall Record: 72-88-7

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

PITTSBURGH (-10) over Cincinnati
CLEVELAND (-3) over Houston
KANSAS CITY (+3) over Buffalo
New York Jets (+5) over TENNESSEE
New England (+1) over MIAMI
DALLAS (-10) over San Francisco
DETRIOT (+8) over Tampa Bay
BALTIMORE (-1) over Philadelphia
Chicago (-8) over ST. LOUIS
JACKSONVILLE (-2) over Minnesota
ATLANTA (-1) over Carolina
Oakland (+9) over DENVER
Washington (-3) over SEATTLE
ARIZONA (+3) over New York Giants
SAN DIEGO (-3) over Indianapolis
Green Bay (+3) over NEW ORLEANS

Denver Dusts Off the Dirty Birds

Sunday's 24-20 Bronco win over the Falcons was a big win for Denver. The defense really stepped up to shut down Matt Ryan, Michael Turner, and the rest of the Falcons offense. The run defense really stepped up with basically backups, rookies, and converted fullbacks. Once again, the offense made some big plays. The second half was the key to this game for the offense. The Bronco Drives consisted of a touchdown by Hillis, a field goal, a touchdown from Cutler to Daniel Graham, and a clock killing final drive. Finally, the defense made the plays on the last drive and stopped the Falcons for a hard fought victory. It was a great win, but there is still a lot of work that needs to be done. It starts this week at home vs. the hated Raiders. Denver hasn't won a home game since October 5th. Get the job done and take care of the Raiders at Invesco on Sunday.


Updated Playoff Projections

AFC
1-Titans
2-Jets
3-Steelers
4-Chargers (Reverse Psychology)
5-Colts
6-Pats

NFC
1-Giants
2-Panthers
3-Cardinals
4-Bears
5-Redskins
6-Buccaneers

Week 11 Picks and Playoff Forecast

It is Week 11 and it is November, which means the NFL season really starts to get going. Thursday Night's classic Jets-Pats game for first place in the AFC EAST is just one example of how great the NFL is during this time of the year. The weather changes, the games get bigger, the holidays come around- it is pretty much the best time of the year. Before I get to this week's picks and NFL Playoff Forecast, I need to address this week's Denver game. I think Denver is screwed this week. Let's put the ways in order: 1) They are on the road. Denver stinks on the road against any quality team. Plus, they are a young team going against a good team in a dome. That spells trouble. 2) Matt Ryan: He is light years ahead of many of the young QBs in this league, with the exception of Jay Cutler. He is the real deal and plays very well at home. He should have fun with the Denver Secondary. 3) Michael Turner: He killed Denver as LT's backup in San Diego. The Falcons OLine will be too physical and Turner will wear out the Broncos depleted front seven. I can't see Denver winning this game. The Broncos have to win the rest of their home games (Oak, Buffalo, KC) and steal 2 out of their last 3 road games (Jets, Carolina, and SD). This could be a long day in the Georgia Dome on Sunday (Reverse Psychology Alert!!!)
Onto my NFL Playoff Forecast. For the rest of the season, each week I will update who will get in and where they will be seeded. Here is the AFC heading into Week 11 (counting the Jets win over the Pats on TNF)
1-Titans (AFC South Champs)
2-Jets (AFC East Champs)
3-Steelers (AFC North Champs)
4-Chargers (AFC West Champs)
5-Colts (Wild Card)
6-Pats (Wild Card)

NFC
1-Giants (NFC East Champs)
2-Carolina (NFC South Champs)
3-Arizona (NFC West Champs)
4-Chicago (NFC North Champs)
5-Washington (Wild Card)
6-Atlanta (Wild Card)


WEEK 11 Picks:

Last Week's Record: 5-8
Overall Record: 68-77-7
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

ATLANTA (-6) over Denver
MIAMI (-10) over Oakland
NEW YORK GIANTS (-7) over Baltimore
INDIANAPOLIS (-8) over Houston
JACKSONVILLE (+3) over Tennessee
GREEN BAY (-3) over Chicago
Philadelphia (-9) over CINCINNATI
New Orleans (-5) over KANSAS CITY
CAROLINA (-14) over Detroit
Minnesota (+4) over TAMPA BAY
St. Louis (+6) over SAN FRANCISCO
SEATTLE (+3) over Arizona
San Diego (+5) over PITTSBURGH
WASHINGTON (+1) over Dallas
BUFFALO (-5) over Cleveland

Week 10 Picks!

Last Week's Record: 8-6
Overall Record: 63-69-7

HOME TEAM IN CAPS

Jacksonville (-7) over DETROIT

Titans (-3) over CHICAGO

Buffalo (+4) over NEW ENGLAND

New Orleans (+1) over ATLANTA

NEW YORK JETS (-8) over St. Louis

MIAMI (-8) over Seattle

Green Bay (+2) over MINNESOTA

Carolina (-9) over OAKLAND

Kansas City (+15) over SAN DIEGO

PITTSBURGH (-3) over Indianapolis

PHILADELPHIA (-3) over New York Giants

HOUSTON (PICK) over Baltimore

ARIZONA (-9) over San Francisco

Strange Season Indeed!

When we last saw the Bronco Blog, Denver was 4-3 coming off a bye and hosting Miami. Miami's 26-17 win over Denver was so demoralizing that I couldn't even blog for a week. I wanted blood. I hated Cutler. I wanted Shanahan fired and replaced with Bill Cowher. I wanted to blow up the team and start from scratch. After I drank myself to sleep on Sunday, I gave it some thought. First, with any young QB, you have to deal with some growing pains. Look how bad Eli Manning played well into his career before it all came together. Cutler is the franchise and you have to stick it out with him. Second, you can't fire Shanny. Even if you got Bill Cowher, you would have to start a whole rebuilding process. He might keep the offensive players (Cutler, Marshall, Royal, Clady, Scheffler) but he would have to totally revamp the defense into a 4-3 scheme. Plus, he would want to bring in his guys, and that would mean Cutler and the Offense would have to start anew. Third, this team is decimated by injuries. As a coach, you can only do with what you have, and the Broncos simply don't have much. That brings us to Thursday Night's thrilling come from behind win in Cleveland. The classic "Backs against the wall/Nobody believes in us came." Finally, the offense woke up from it's five game and exploded for 34 points and Cutler's 447 passing yards, and over 500 yards of Offense. This was a must game for Denver and they got it. Maybe Cutler's 93 yard bomb to Eddie Royal is the turning point. I would like to think that but this team just has too many injuries to overcome. At 5-4 they still lead the AFC West. Please just stay afloat and get healthy (Champ, DJ, Scheff, Selvin) at the right time, and maybe this season won't blow up in oblivion. Just when you think Denver screws you, they pull right back in.

Week 9 Picks!

Last Week's Record: 6-5-3
Overall Record: 55-63-7

HOME TEAM IN CAPS

MINNESOTA (-4) over Houston

Jacksonville (-7) over CINCINNATTI

KANSAS CITY (-9) over Tampa Bay

CLEVELAND (-1) over Baltimore

BUFFALO (-5) over New York Jets

Arizona (-3) over ST. LOUIS

Detroit (+12) over CHICAGO

TENNESSEE (-4) over Green Bay

Miami (+3) over DENVER

OAKLAND (+3) over Atlanta

NEW YORK GIANTS (-8) over Dallas

Philadelphia (-7) over SEATTLE

INDIANAPOLIS (-6) over New England

Pittsburgh (+2) over WASHINGTON

The Debacle in Foxboro

Denver's 41-7 disaster in Foxboro Monday Night was at a comical level. It got to the point were I was almost rooting for the Pats to put up 60 on the Broncos just to see if heads would roll. It was an absolute butt whipping, and the entire Broncos organization should be ashamed of the performance- or lack there of. With that said, Denver's defense is an absolute disgrace. To add insult to injury, Denver loses Champ Bailey for 6 weeks with a groin injury, and Boss Bailey for the season. Hey, the defense can't get any worse without those guys anyway- or could it. Denver can't stop the run and they can't defend the pass. They don't create turnovers and they can never get a big stop in a big spot. Their personnel is so weak that they are just going to have to live with a crummy defense all year long. The sad part is how this explosive offense has completely crumbled. I don't understand how you can score 41, 39, and 38 points the first 3 weeks and then only score 19, 16, 17, and 7. It is mind boggling to me. The Broncos offense commits turnovers like a Junior High team. It is disgraceful to watch. Here is how I am trying to spin this in the positive way. We all the Broncos defense sucks, but if the offense can stop turning the ball over, then maybe this can be turned around. Having a bye is a good thing this week. If the offense gets Stokley, Scheffler, and Selvin Young back, then maybe it will have all of the weapons that made the offense roll in the first three weeks. If Denver puts up 28 points a game consistently, then they will be able to simply outscore the other teams, even with a defense that will probably give up at least 24 to 27 points every week. From Week 1, I said that this Denver team reminded me of the 2000 Broncos. A highly explosive offense that could score 31 every game and a crappy defense that is going to give up a lot of points. If the offense can turn it around again and get back to it's form from the beginning of the year, then maybe this season can be saved. If not then we are looking at 6-10 or 7-9 all over again. Before the season, if you looked at Denver's first 7 games (at Oak, home vs. SD, vs. NO, at KC, home vs. Tampa, home vs. Jax, and at NE) you would totally take 4-3. Throw in the fact that 4-3 would give you first place in the AFC West, any Bronco fan would take that. Let's see. On to the picks for Week 8:

Last Week's Record: 6-7-1
Overall Record: 49-58-4

HOME TEAM IN CAPS

BALTIMORE (-7) over Oakland

San Diego (-3) over New Orleans

Kansas City (+14) over NEW YORK JETS

MIAMI (+2) over Buffalo

DALLAS (-1) over Tampa Bay

PHILADELPHIA (-9) over Atlanta

NEW ENGLAND (-7) over St. Louis

Arizona (+4) over Carolina

DETROIT (+8) over Washington

JACKSONVILLE (-7) over Cleveland

PITTSBURGH (-1) over New York Giants

Seattle (+5) over San Francisco

Cincinnatti (+9) over HOUSTON

Indianapolis (+4) over TENNESSEE

Picks Correction

My Week 6 picks were 10-4 instead of 9-5, so my overall record stands at 44-50-3.

Disapointment in Denver and Week 7 Picks

The Broncos 24-17 loss to Jacksonville on Sunday was very disapointing. They simply shot themselves in the foot too many times. Cutler's first quarter fumble was big because the Broncos had a 7-0 lead and just recovered a Jax fumble. Brandon Marshall's fumble was worse because it was inside the 10 and Denver had a chance to take a 14-3 stranglehold. Denver's inability to convert on a 4th and 1 inside Jax territory late in the first half officially put the game in "Oh Shit" mode -meaning "Oh Shit" we are in trouble. Denver's defense is not good enough to overcome it's own offensive miscues and that is where the Broncs need to improve. The offense is missing some key weapons (Scheff, Royal, Selvin, possibly Stokley) but somehow Cutler has to get it rolling again. Also, the defense needs to get some turnovers. I will take giving up 21 a game, but if we get back to scoring some points on offense and the defense gets some timely turnovers, then the Broncos will be on top of a lot of 31-21 victories this season. Right now at 4-2, Denver needs this win over New England on Monday Night. They need to go out and get the job done in Foxboro and head into the bye week at 5-2 and some confidence under their belt.

LAST WEEK'S RECORD: 9-5
OVERALL RECORD: 43-51-3

WEEK 7 PICKS (HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

KANSAS CITY (+9) over Tennessee

San Diego (PICK) over BUFFALO

CINCINNATI (+10) over Pittsburgh

Baltimore (+3) over MIAMI

Dallas (-6) over ST.LOUIS

CHICAGO (-3) over Minnesota

New Orleans (+3) 0ver CAROLINA

NEW YORK GIANTS (-10) over San Francisco

Detroit (+9) over HOUSTON

OAKLAND (+3) over New York Jets

WASHINGTON (-7) over Cleveland

Indianapolis (-2) over GREEN BAY

TAMPA BAY (-10) over Seattle

NEW ENGLAND (-3) over Denver

Week 5 Picks!

Last Week's Record: 6-6-2

Overall Record: 34-46-3


Home Teams in CAPS:


NEW ORLEANS (-7) over Oakland

Baltimore (+4) over INDIANAPOLIS

NEW YORK JETS (-8) over Cincinnatti

TAMPA BAY (-1) over Carolina

Detroit (+13) over MINNESOTA

ATLANTA (+3) over Chicago

HOUSTON (-3) over Miami

St. Louis (+14) over WASHINGTON

DENVER (-3) over Jacksonville

Philadelphia (-4) over SAN FRANCISCO

Dallas (-4) over ARIZONA

Green Bay (-1) over SEATTLE

SAN DIEGO (-5) over New England

CLEVELAND (+8) over New York Giants

Defense Shows in Win over Bucs

Denver's Defense finally showed up this season with it's 16-13 victory over the Bucs on Sunday at Mile High. It was a simple matter of fact type win for the Broncos, but it is a good win over a quality opponent and it improves Denver's record to 4-1. Couple that with a loss by San Diego to Miami and Denver is in first place in the AFC West. First, great job by the defense this week. They pressured Tampa and they did a great job of tackling. I know Tampa is the best offense in the league, but Denver did a great job of shutting them down. Hopefully, the Broncos Defense can build on this and put together a few good weeks. Second, the offense was stifled by Tampa's Defense, but they were able to get the points they needed and get the first downs at the end of the game to put it away. I'll take it and I expect the offense to get cranked up once again. Third, Denver has a huge game against Jacksonville next week. The Broncos can never lose home games and they need this one against the Jaguars. It will be a tough one, but if the Broncos can get it, then they could be off to the races in the AFC.

Week 5 Picks

Last Week's Record: 7-6
Overall Record: 28-40-1

HOME TEAM IN CAPS

Indianapolis (-3) over HOUSTON

BALTIMORE (+3) over Tennessee

San Diego (-6) over MIAMI

CAROLINA (-9) over Kansas City

PHILADELPHIA (-5) over Washington

Chicago (-3) over DETROIT

GREEN BAY (-7) over Atlanta

Seattle (+7) over NEW YORK GIANTS

DENVER (-3) over Tampa Bay

SAN FRANCISCO (+3) over New England

ARIZONA (PK) over Buffalo

Cincinnatti (+17) over DALLAS

JACKSONVILLE (-4) over Pittsburgh

Minnesota (+3 ) over NEW ORLEANS

Back to Reality at Arrowhead

The Broncos' 33-19 loss at Kansas City this past Sunday should not really surprise many people. The Broncos never play well at Arrowhead. It doesn't matter what the records are at the time of the game, Denver simply just can't win at Arrowhead. Shanny won in '98, '02, and in '07- that's it. The Chiefs always get revved up for Denver in KC and this year was no different. My take on the game is that Denver's Defense should not be blamed for the loss. Also, Denver wasn't overlooking the Chiefs because although KC was 0-3 and looked horrible, Shanny and Co. know how hard it is to win in KC. Denver's offense should take the blame for this mishap. First, turnovers will always kill you on the road. Eddie Royal's fumble on the second play of the game was a bad omen for the rest of the way. Marshall's fumble at with Denver up 7-6 was a killer and it led to an easy Chiefs touchdown. Next, Cutler forced two passes on back to back plays. Twice he tried to force it in to Marshall and got picked. Cutler is fantastic but he still needs to learn when to not force the ball into coverage. On the second pick, he had Daniel Graham wide open in the flat and he tried to zip one in to Marshall. He is still a young QB and he has to learn to take what they give you. The Defense was backed up the whole game and when KC has to only drive 40 or 50 yards, the Broncos defense is not good enough to stop anyone on a short field. Third, no loss is a good loss, but maybe this brings Denver back to reality a little bit. They were getting a lot of national press and perhaps this will bring them back to Earth. Also, I think this game puts the bed the comparisons between the '07 Pats and the '08 Denver Offense. I expect Denver to regroup and play very well vs. Tampa this week at Mile High.

NFL Week 4 Picks!

Last Week's Record: 7-8-1
Overall Record: 21-34-1

HOME TEAMS IN CAPS

KANSAS CITY (+9) over Denver

Cleveland (+3) over CINCINNATI

JACKSONVILLE (-7) over Houston

NEW YORK JETS (-1) over Arizona

NEW ORLEANS (-5) over San Francisco

CAROLINA (-7) over Atlanta

TENNESSEE (-3) over Minnesota

Green Bay (+1) over TAMPA BAY

ST. LOUIS (+8) over Buffalo

San Diego (-7) over OAKLAND

DALLAS (-11) over Washington

Philadelphia (-3) over Chicago

PITTSBURGH (-5) over Baltimore

Another Week, Another Shootout Win

Seriously, these shootouts are great for the FOX, CBS, ESPN, and the NFL Network, but they are killing me. The Broncos' 34-32 victory over New Orleans in Week 3 is a combination of thrilling, exciting and troubling to me. The Broncos simply can't stop anyone. No defense can stop Denver. It looks like I am watching an Arena league game every week. I think Denver is looking to set the record for "Most Games Selected for NFL Replay" each week. I'll take it and I'm psyched to be 3-0, but how about a 23-17 game once in a while. Some quick points about this week's game: First, not since 2000 has Denver had such an explosive offense. The Broncos can score points whenever they want from wherever on the field. The Broncos have scored 41, 39, and 34 points in 3 games. They have build 17-0, 21-3, and 21-3 leads in the first half in all of their three games. This offense is becoming a real juggernaut. Secondly, I know their defense is horrible, but build on these positives: The goal line stand near the end of the first half was huge, they stopped the 2 point conversion when the Saints went to tie it up at 34, and they stopped New Orleans on a 3rd and 1 and forced the Grammatica FG attempt, which he promptly missed. Third, a win is a win in the NFL and the Broncos are 3-0 for the first time since 2003. If we can somehow just stop someone please. Next week comes Tyler Thigpen and the Chiefs. That might be the perfect remedy. Please no let down. Go into Arrowhead and take care of business and put the lowly Chiefs away.

NFL Week 3 Picks!

Last Week's Record 4-10
Overall Record: 14-26

HOME TEAMS IN CAPS


Kansas City (+6) over ATLANTA

BUFFALO (-9) over Oakland

Houston (+4) over TENNESSEE

Cincinnatti (+13) over NEW YORK GIANTS

WASHINGTON (-3) over Arizona

Miami (+12) over NEW ENGLAND

CHICAGO (-3) over Tampa Bay

Carolina (+3) over MINNESOTA

St. Louis (+9) over SEATTLE

Detroit (+5) over SAN FRANCISCO

New Orleans (+5) over DENVER

PHILADELPHIA (-3) over Pittsburgh

Jacksonville (+4) over INDIANAPOLIS

Cleveland (+2) over BALTIMORE

Dallas (-3) over GREEN BAY

New York Jets (+8) over SAN DIEGO

Old Fashioned AFC West Shootout

Denver's thrilling 39-38 victory over San Diego was a throwback to the old classic AFL shootouts. It also had Denver's Invesco Field rocking like a classic 80s Elway comeback game in old Mild High. In one of the most exciting and controversial games of recent memory, Denver just threw its' hat in the AFC West ring. First, the Chargers got screwed. Ed Hoculi blew the fumble call and SD should have taken possession leading 38-31. The bottom line is that you don't give any wins back in the NFL, so from that stand point I don't feel bad at all. Second, Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall are establishing themselves as a top QB-WR duo in the NFL. They have picked up where they left off last season and look unstoppable. Third, Mike Shanahan has balls. This is why I love Shanny. He knew that his defense was shot and couldn't stop the Chargers and he had so much confidence in that offense, that he decided to end the game right there. It was a great call also because SD was so distraught about the fumble and about giving up the touchdown to Royal on 4th and goal. Overall, Sunday's victory was amazing and exciting and it was a throwback to old Bronco victories of the 8os.

The Dismantling in the Black Hole

If you scripted a better Week 1 for the Broncos, then I really don't think you can beat what happened in Oakland on Monday Night. Denver's 41-14 destruction of the Raiders was the perfect way to start the season. This was one of the those classic 97/98 Denver victories where the Broncos offense jumped out to a big lead, the defense did it's part on third down and in the red zone, and the other team's defensive coordinator was left to stratch his head and shrug his shoulders. First, Jay Cutler was the story for the Broncos' offense. Cutler played fantastic and throw in the fact that rookie receiver Eddie Royal played like an All-Pro instead of a rookie in his first game in the NFL. Cutler looked great, the receivers played great, the O-line was solid, and the running back trio of Selvin Young, Andre Hall, and Michael Pittman was effiecient. The Broncos looked the vintage Mike Shanahan led Broncos. Secondly, tip your cap to Shannny because he did a great job of putting together a superb game plan and dialed up so many great calls during the game. The Raiders were completely fooled and never knew what was coming. Shanahan is one of the best play callers in the business, and he simply destroyed the Raiders defense all night long. It was a great start to the season, and Denver's offense hasn't been that explosive in at least 3 seasons. I know it is only Week 1, but they got one down and have some confidence going in to Week 2. Up next is San Diego. I have been waiting for this game since Christmas Eve last year. A few things to remember if I am a Bronco player this week. First, remember how Rivers, Shaun Phillips, and the rest of the Chargers mocked and embarrassed our young QB last year. Also, remember how the Chargers buried the Broncos by the combined score of 64-6 in two games in '07. Lastly, the Chargers have won the last 2 games in Denver. Denver needs to reclaim their home field advantage over SD and send a message to the rest of the AFC West.


Last weeks picks: 10-6
Season Total:10-6


This week's picks:
Home team in UPPERCASE

KC (-3) over Oakland
CINCY (-1) over Tenn
Indy (-2) over MINNESOTA
DETROIT (+3) over Green Bay
CAROLINA (-3) over Chicago
ST.LOUIS (+9) over New York Giants
JAX (-5) over Buffalo
Atlanta (+7) over TAMPA BAY
SEATTLE (-7) over SF
Miami (+6) over ARIZONA
NY JETS (-1.5) over New England
HOUSTON (-4) over Baltimore
DENVER (+1.5) over San Diego
CLEVELAND (+6) over Pittsburgh
Philadelphia (+7) over DALLAS

NFL WEEK 1 PICKS!

Here are my week 1 Picks. Week 1 is always hard and there are some interesting games on tap. I like to stay away from heavy favorites the opening week.

*If I was picking one game for a suicide game this week, I'd go with Philadelphia.

NY Giants (-3) over Washington

Baltimore (+2) over Cincy

Miami (+3) over NY Jets

Kansas City (+16) over New England

Pittsburgh (-6.5) over Houston

Jacksonville (-3) over Tennessee

Detroit (-3) over Atlanta

Buffalo (PK) over Seattle

Tampa Bay (+3.5) over New Orleans

Philadelphia (-7) over St. Louis

Dallas (-5) over Cleveland

Carolina (+9) over San Diego

San Francisco (+2.5) over Arizona

Chicago (+9.5) over Indianapolis

Minnesota (+2.5) over Green Bay

Denver (-3) over Oakland

AFC Predicitions 2008

The AFC is the stronger conference. The Big 3 of Indy, NE and San Diego are the three best teams in the league. On paper teams like Jacksonville, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, and Tennessee seem to be ready to take the next step. The problem with those four teams is that there are stuck in a very bad division. Also, their schedule is a mine field. I went against the grain a little bit and picked some real sleepers in the AFC.

AFC EAST
1- New England (12-4) Too much talent for NE to suffer a Super Bowl hangover.
2- New York Jets (10-6) The Jets were much improved before they got Favre. Brett leads them back into the playoffs as a wild card.
3-Buffalo (5-11) The Bills don't have a real threat at QB and struggle all year long.
4- Miami (4-12) Year 1 of the Sparano/Parcells rebuilding project shows some promise.

AFC NORTH
1-Cincinnatti (10-6) The Bengals suprise everyone and take the division. Palmer, TJ and Chad lead the way.
2-Pittsburgh (9-7) A brutal schedule catches up with the Steelers and they fall short of the playoffs.
3- Cleveland (8-8) Everyone's bandwagon team disappoints and finishes .500.
4- Baltimore (6-10) They will win some games early but won't be able to sustain it throughout the year.

AFC SOUTH
1-Indianapolis (11-5) Indy won't get to the 12 win mark for the 6th straight year, but they have Peyton Manning and that is all you need.
2-Jacksonville (9-7) Jax falls short of playoffs despite being a strong team.
3-Houston (8-8) A possible sleeper that is maybe 1 year away.
4- Tennessee (6-10) Their defense can only do so much. Vince Young will struggle.

AFC WEST
1-San Diego (12-4) The class of the division. Can hang with any team on any Sunday.
2-Denver (10-6) I'm a Bronco fan and I never pick Denver to make the playoffs. Why not Denver? Maybe Cutler puts them on his back and gets them in as a wild card.
3-Oakland (6-10) Raiders are explosive but I think 2009 may be when they really return.
4- Kansas City (3-13) A young team in a rebuiliding situation. Herm will have them play hard every week.

AFC Playoffs:
1- San Diego
2- New England
3-Indy
4- Cincy
5- New York Jets
6- Denver

AFC TITLE GAME: San Diego over Indy

NFC Predictions-2008

I start my 2008 NFL Predictions with the NFC. The NFC is probably considered to be weaker then the AFC. The big favorites coming into '08 are Dallas, New York, and Seattle. However, if you look at, there are some really good teams that are ready for a bounce back season.

NFC EAST
1- Philadelphia (11-5) Bounce back year for Andy Reid, Donovan McNabb and the Eagles.
2- Dallas (10-6) The Cowboys lose out on the division, but they earn a wild card berth.
3-New York Giants (10-6) Giants make the playoffs but will have to go on the road throughout again.
4- Washington (7-9) Year One of The Jim Zorn Era has some rough moments.

NFC NORTH
1-Chicago (10-6) Defense and Special Teams leads the Bears back atop the Division.
2-Green Bay (8-8) Too much pressure for Rodgers and McCarthy as Pack miss playoffs.
3-Minnesota (6-10) Tarvaris Jackson isn't the answer and Vikings disappoint.
4- Detroit (6-10) The end of the Rod Marinelli era in Detroit.

NFC SOUTH
1-New Orleans (11-5) Big year for the Saints. Could be the team to beat in the NFC.
2-Carolina (9-7) Good bounce back year for John Fox and Jake Delhomme, but Panthers just miss out of the playoffs.
3-Tampa Bay (7-9) Bucs won't repeat as Division Champs and have a real tough year.
4- Atlanta (3-13) Falcons are rebuilding and look to 2009.

NFC West
1-Seattle (11-5) Just the class of a really bad division. Holmgren's team repeats as division champs.
2-St. Louis (8-8) Scott Linehan saves his job for one more season.
3-Arizona (6-10) QB controversy proves to be too much for Cardinals.
4- San Francisio (4-12) No great options at QB probably sends Mike Nolan packing.


Playoffs:
1-Philly
2-New Orleans
3-Seattle
4-Chicago
5-Dallas
6-New York Giants

NFC Title Game: New Orleans over Philly

NFL Predictions Formula!!!

As I start out my Inagural NFL Predictions, I just want to make a few points clear. First, if anyone is going to make predictions related to the NFL season they must take into account that the NFL has 32 teams playing 16 games. If you multiply 32 x 16 you get a total of 512. Each game is decided and very, very rarely is there a tie. Now, if you are going to predict the records of each team, then every team's wins cannot exceed 256 and every team's losses cannot exceed 256. Every year experts from ESPN, NFL Network, SI, and all other newspapers always make predictions and fail to take this into account. If you are going to pick every team's record, then do it the right way. All of my picks will be given with a record and all of those records will correspond with the number of games played in the NFL season. Next, I want to unveil my NFL Picking Formula. Each year the NFL goes under some sort of turmoil. Division winners end up missing the playoffs, some playoff teams end up in last place in their division, and Super Bowl teams ending up falling apart. There is a way to predict these kind of changes. Usually about half of the previous season's playoff teams fail to make the playoffs. 6 out of the 12 teams won't be back in the playoffs the next year, and about half of the division winners don't repeat the next year too. If you want evidence take a look at each playoff year since the NFL realigned in 2002. In 2003, 2/8 Division Winners and 4/12 playoff teams returned. In 2004, it was 4/8 Division Winners and 7/12 playoff teams. In '05, it was 3/8 and 5/12. In 2006, it was 4/8 and 5/12. In 2007, it was 4/8 and 6/12. The evidence is all there. So if you are going to pick every division winner and playoff participants, it most likely will be 4 out of 8 repeat division winners and 6 out of 12 playoff returnees. I will use this formula this season when I make my picks. Coming Soon: NFC WEST PREDICITIONS!!!!!

NFL Predictions Coming Soon

As the first set of preseason games get underway this weekend, I figured I would check in to give a time frame for my Inagural NFL Predictions. I will pick the records, standings, and finishes for each NFL team this season. Hell, it might be worthless but I will even throw in my Super Bowl picks. I will also unveil my "Formula For Predictions." I have come up with several ways to help you predict the NFL season. As for now, sit back and enjoy Week 1 of the NFL preseason and pray that no one on your favorite team tears an ACL, suffers a concussion, or breaks any bones.

Possible 2008 Disappointments

Every year, the NFL season produces a few surprises. The 2004 Chargers, 2007 Browns, 2006 Saints, and the 2005 Bucs are all recent examples of teams coming out of nowhere to have a successful season. Every season though there are at least a few teams that looked to be in store for a tremendous season. However, every season one of those "lock" teams seems to fall short. The reasons could be injuries, a tough schedule, or some bad luck. It just seems that every season produces a few teams that fail to live up to their pre-season expectations. I like to call these teams the "Bandwagon Teams." A typical bandwagon team is usual a team that every analyst, reporter, writer, blogger, or ESPN guru loves and predicts a big season for that team. Last year, everyone loved the San Francisco 49ers. Every magazine and website picked the Niners to win the NFC West. Well, we all know what happened. The Niners were a big disappointment and bottomed out at 5-11. Here is a list of my 2008 "Bandwagon Teams" and why it may be hard for these teams to reach expectations.

1) Cleveland Browns: Everyone loves the Browns for this season. Derek Anderson led a big time offensive football team last season and the Browns surprised everybody. All the preseason picks have selected the Browns as the team to knock off the Steelers for the AFC North crown this year. A lot of experts feel that the Browns might be able to challenge the Big 3 (NE, Indy, SD) in the AFC this year. I'm not buying it. Although I think the Browns will be good again offensively, I think it will be hard for them because they are not sneeking up on anyone this year. Look at the schedule: Their division is very hard. Also, their out of division schedule is brutal. They have the AFC South (Indy, Hous, Jax, Tenn), and the NFC East (Dall, NYG, Philly, Wash). I think that they will be very competitive and in all those games, but I think it will be rough road for the Browns this season.

2) San Diego Chargers: I know the Chargers are one of the perennial favorites in the AFC, but a lot people are going to pick them to supplant the Pats and reach the Super Bowl. I don't buy that one bit. First, they can't get by the Pats. The Pats own them. Second, Phillip Rivers is coming off a torn ACL from January, and LT needed offseason surgery as well. I think they played way over their heads in the playoffs last year and made a nice run. I think they will have a hangover from last season, and I think they will start out slow.

3) Arizona Cardinals: The way the Cards played down the stretch last year gave a lot of people hope that the Cards will break out in 2008 and win the NFC West. I wouldn't put too much stock in the Cardinals. I actually think the Rams are more of a threat to Seattle in that division. Look, when you draft Matt Leinart and you are playing Kurt Warner over the kid, that can't be a good thing. I think many people will jump on the Cards bandwagon, but I see more of the same disappointment that Arizona usually provides.

Downtime in the NFL

At this point of the summer, America is wrapped up in barbeques, the beach, and baseball. The NFL season is furthest thing on anyone's mind. However, when you really look at it the NFL season is just around the corner. Before we go into a real in-depth NFL preview, I just wanted to throw out some possible sleepers for the upcoming 2008 campaign.


SLEEPERS:
1) Buffalo Bills- I think the Bills could really surprise some people. They have an easy schedule and a pretty solid defense and running game. If Trent Edwards or JP Losman are somewhat capable, they could steal a few games and end up 10-6.

2) Oakland Raiders: I know that Oakland is an absolute disgrace of an organization, but they have some nice options on offense. The combo of McFadden/Vargas should be able to keep the ground game going, and maybe JaMarcus Russell pulls it together. On paper they look like they can win some games. Plus, the whole easy schedule applies to them as well.

3) Cincinnati Bengals: There defense is awful and the Chad Johnson scenario still needs to be played out off the field, but I have a feeling that this group will be a tough team in 2008. If Chad sucks it up and plays the way he can play, then there offense will be explosive like they always are. They made some nice moves defensively, and maybe they have ridden themselves of all the malcontents that made up their roster. I see them surprising people, but their schedule is a tough one.