Tuesday, February 17, 2015

2014 NFL Season Review- The AFC

My 2014 AFC predictions went a lot better than my NFC predictions. I guess I just know the AFC a little better than the other conference. I had one of my best years predicting the teams in the playoffs and how the actual playoffs went down. Here are some facts from my AFC predictions….

-I correctly predicted 5 out of the 6 AFC playoff teams (NE, Denver, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and Indy). The only team I didn't pick was the Bengals, and I have never picked them in the last four years they have made the playoffs.

-I picked the Jets to make the playoffs and that looks really bad, but I went back and forth on the 6th team in the AFC all summer. I crossed off Kansas City and San Diego because they made it 2013, and I was correct on the fact that they wouldn't make it again in 2014. I couldn't trust Miami this year, and they proved me right once again. I would have taken Houston but their QB situation turned me off, and I was correct again since they finished 9-7 and just missed out. I picked the Jets as a sleeper, and it just didn't work out.

-My playoff picks were amazing and on point. I had Pitt and Baltimore meeting in the Wild Card round, and I had the Ravens winning that game. That exactly happened as the Ravens upset the Steelers 30-17 in Pittsburgh. I had the Ravens and Pats meeting in the Divisional Round in Foxboro, and that actually happened as well. I predicted the Ravens would win in an upset, but they just fell short in a close nail-biting 35-31 loss to the Pats. I correctly predicted that Denver would host Indy in the Divisional Round, and I predicted that Indy would upset the Broncos, and we know how that game turned out. Although, I predicted a Ravens-Colts AFC Championship, I was close with the actual game being Indy at New England.

Best Predictions: Pittsburgh and Baltimore getting back to the playoffs after missing out in 2013. San Diego and KC both missing the playoffs. Miami disappointing once again and going 8-8 and they finished 8-8 and disappointed everyone once again. Houston rebounding from a 2-14 season to finish 8-8 (They ended up actually finishing 9-7).

Worst Predictions: Far and away the Jets finishing 9-7 and making the playoffs as a wild card. They were terrible for most of the year and finished 4-12. I also had no faith in the Bills and picked them to go 5-11, and they ended up 9-7. Also, I guess a gave a little too much credit to Ken Whisenhunt in his first year with the Titans as I had them going 7-9, and they finished a dismal 2-14.

Here are my predictions on the left with the actual records on the right:

AFC East
1) New England (12-4)               Actual Record: 12-4 (Division Winner)
2) NY Jets (9-7)-Wild Card         Actual Record: 4-12
3) Miami (8-8)                          Actual Record: 8-8
4) Buffalo (5-11)                      Actual Record: 9-7

AFC North
1) Baltimore (10-6)                      Actual Record: 10-6 (Wild Card)
2) Pittsburgh (10-6)-Wild Card      Actual Record: 11-5 (Division Winner)
3) Cincinnati (7-9)                       Actual Record: 10-5-1 (Wild Card)
4) Cleveland (5-11)                      Actual Record: 7-9

AFC South
1) Indianapolis (11-5)              Actual Record: 11-5 (Division Winner)
2) Houston (8-8)                     Actual Record: 9-7
3) Tennessee (7-9)                 Actual Record: 2-14
4) Jacksonville (5-11)             Actual Record: 3-13

AFC West
1) Denver (11-5)                  Actual Record: 12-4 (Division Winner)
2) San Diego (8-8)               Actual Record: 9-7
3) Kansas City (7-9)             Actual Record: 9-7
4) Oakland (4-12)               Actual Record: 3-13

Super Bowl Prediction: Green Bay over Indy                 Actual Super Bowl: New England over Seattle


2014 NFL Season Review-The NFC

Every year, I take a lot of pride in my preseason predictions. It is always fun to go back and see just how close I was, how far off I was, and look at my predictions now that the sun has set on the 2013 season. Today, I am going to start off with the NFC. Here are the facts about my preseason picks…..

-I only corrected picked 2 out of the 6 NFC teams to make the playoffs (Green Bay and Seattle).

-I did have the NFC Championship Game correctly predicted with Green Bay heading to Seattle, but I had the Packers pulling the upset, and we all know how they collapsed in that game and lost in overtime.

-I did have some bad luck in the NFC South. The division came down to Atlanta and Carolina playing each other with the division title at stake in Week 17. If Atlanta won at home, then they would have won the division, and I would have at least correctly predicted them to make the playoffs because I had them going in as a wild card. Naturally, they got crushed by the Panthers and Carolina actually got in with a 7-8-1 record. Trust me, I was rooting hard for Atlanta in that game.

-My best predictions: San Francisco going 8-8 and missing the playoffs. A lot of people/experts had the Niners getting back to the Super Bowl or at least making the playoffs. Also, I had Philly going 8-8 and missing the playoffs and although they finished 10-6, they still missed the playoffs. Everyone had the Eagles winning the NFC East in August.

-My worst predictions: The Bears going 9-7 and getting a Wild Card berth. The Giants winning the NFC East at 9-7. New Orleans going 11-5 and winning the South. Atlanta going 10-6 and getting a Wild Card. Dallas going 5-11, and I had Tampa Bay finishing a respectable 7-9, and they finished 2-14 and have the #1 overall pick in April's NFL Draft. Also,  I had Arizona going 8-8, and they surprised everyone to go 11-5.

Here are my predictions on the left with the actual record next to it on the right:

NFC East
1) NY Giants (9-7)        Actual Record: 6-10
2) Philly (8-8)              Actual Record: 10-6
3) Washington (8-8)     Actual Record: 4-12
4) Dallas (5-11)           Actual Record: 12-4 (Division Winner)

NFC North
1) Green Bay (11-5)                  Actual Record: 12-4 (Division Winner)
2) Chicago (9-7)-Wild Card       Actual Record: 5-11
3) Detroit (7-9)                        Actual Record: 11-5 (Wild Card)
4) Minnesota (6-10)                  Actual Record: 7-9

NFC South
1) New Orleans (11-5)               Actual Record: 7-9
2) Atlanta (10-6)-Wild Card       Actual Record: 6-10
3) Tampa Bay (7-9)                   Actual Record: 2-14
4) Carolina (5-11)                     Actual Record: 7-8-1 (Division Winner)

NFC West
1) Seattle (12-4)                       Actual Record: 12-4 (Division Winner)
2) San Francisco (8-8)               Actual Record: 8-8
3) Arizona (8-8)                       Actual Record: 11-5 (Wild Card)
4) St. Louis (5-11)                   Actual Record: 6-10

Monday, February 2, 2015

Super Bowl XLIX Review

Super Bowl XLIX will go down as the game that will be remembered by the play call and decision by Pete Carroll to throw the ball on 2nd and goal from the 1 yard line with 25 seconds left down 28-24 with Marshawn Lynch not even getting a chance to get the ball and win the game. It will be remembered and second guessed forever, but I'll get to that debacle later on. I don't just want to focus on that play because the whole game was a great game. It was a great Super Bowl game. A 28-24 Patriots win over the Seahawks was an instant classic. It was the two best teams in the NFL meeting in game where Bill Belichick and Tom Brady's legacy was on the line and the Seahawks were going for a rare repeat as Super Bowl Champions. The game lived up to the hype and it will go down as one of the best Super Bowls of all-time. There is a lot to get to in this game, so here is my breakdown…..

(Sidenote: I picked New England (-1) over Seattle with a score of 24-19. I finished 6-5 with my picks in the playoffs, and I finished 135-113-8 in the regular season, so I finished with a record of 141-118-8 overall with the playoffs and regular season combined)

1) The game started out in favor of the Patriots. At 7-0, after Tom Brady hit Brandon LaFell for a 11 yard touchdown pass in the 2nd quarter, I felt like the Patriots were really dominating the game. Brady threw a horrible red zone interception earlier in the first quarter, and this game could have been easily 10-0 or 14-0. They were shutting down Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch, and you had to feel really good about the way the game was setting up at that point.

2) Give the Seahawks credit because they completely turned the game around. Wilson hit a deep pass to little-known WR Chris Matthews to set up their first touchdown by Lynch to tie the game at 7 with 2:22 left in the half.

3) I thought the last two minutes to the first half were tremendous. The Pats go right back down the field and Brady hits Rob Gronkowski for a 22 yard touchdown to give them a 14-7 lead with only 36 seconds left in the half. From there, the Seahawks were aggressive like they should have been (Take notes when you go to Chicago John Fox.) A big run by Robert Turbin for 19 yards and a Wilson run for 17 yards put the ball at the NE 44 with 17 seconds left. Wilson hit Ricardo Lockette for a huge 23 yard gain and then with only 6 seconds left, the Seahawks made the right call and took one shot at the end zone and Wilson hit Matthews with an 11 yard touchdown to tie the game at 14 right before the half. Great sequence on both ends at that point.

4) The second half started with another big turn of events. Seattle started with the ball and right down the field with another hookup from Wilson to Matthews to put them deep into NE territory. The key play was on a 3rd and 1 from the 8 yard line, Rob Ninkovich made a huge tackle on Lynch for no gain, and the Seahawks had to settle for the field goal and a 17-14 lead. A touchdown there would have been huge, but give the Pats credit for making the stop.

5) On the next possession, Brady got intercepted by Bobby Wagner on a 3rd and 8, Wilson hits Doug Baldwin on a 3 yard touchdown pass to give them a 24-14 lead. I didn't count out the Pats at that point, but I felt that Seattle was going to win the game at that point. The big play that people won't remember was when Wilson put a perfect pass into Jermaine Kearse's hands for a big gain deep into NE territory and Kearse couldn't hold on to it. If he catches it, then they at least have a 27-14 lead, and it would have definitely affected the outcome.

6) After the teams exchanged punts, I thought Seattle had the game won after they stopped LaGarrette Blount on a 3rd and 1 early in the 4th quarter. Russell Wilson got sacked on a 3rd down play on the next series, and Seattle had to punt. The Pats made the key stops in the second half when they had to keep them in the game.

7) With 12 minutes left in the game and down 10, the Patriots and Tom Brady owned the rest of the game. He methodically picked apart the Seattle defense, and the key play was a Brady to Julian Edelman conversion on a 3rd and 14 to keep the drive alive. His 4 yard touchdown pass to Danny Amendola made it 24-21. You just knew that Brady was going to get one more shot with the game on the line. The Seahawks went 3 and out on the next series, and there was a non-call on a possible pass interference on first play of the drive, but you could just feel the momentum shifting to the Pats.

8) With 6:52 left in the game and the ball at their own 36, Brady went back to work. Once again, he dinked and dunked his way down the field. They never even had a 3rd down on the drive, and Brady capped it off with a 3 yard touchdown pass to Edelman to take the lead with 2:06 left. I'll get to Brady and his career defining drive in a little bit.

9) With 80 yards to go and down 4, Wilson hit Lynch on a sweet slant and go for 31 yards to the NE 49. From there, Wilson hit Lockette for a huge 11 yard gain for a first down on 3rd and 10. Kearse made the remarkable catch off the deflection on his back down at the NE five yard line with 1:06 left. It was eerily similar to the Helmet Catch from Super Bowl XLII, and if you were a Patriots fan, you had to be sick to your stomach and you had to be thinking that you were going to lose another Super Bowl on a ridiculous and surreal catch. Everyone in America felt that the Seahawks were going to win at that point, and they should have. It is a shame that Kearse's catch will be just a footnote in Super Bowl history.

10) Now, lets get to the debacle of the end of the game. On 1st and goal, Lynch runs down to the 1 yard line. Seattle has 1 timeout, and the Pats had 1 timeout left, but Belichick didn't call it, so the clock was running. On 2nd and goal from the 1 yard line, instead of running Lynch for the game-winning score, Pete Carroll and Darrell Bevall (Seattle's OC) decide to throw a slant for the touchdown, and Malcolm Butler made a great break on the ball and picks off the pass and clinches the game with the interception. HOW THE HELL DO YOU THROW THE BALL IN THAT SPOT????? That was the worst call ever and you can't do that in that spot. JUST RUN THE BALL WITH MARSHAWN LYNCH!!!! How can that happen? That was just an awful job, and why did Carroll even allow that play call to even happen? Just a terrible job at the end there, and the Seahawks will have to live with that call forever. I'll never understand the thinking behind that play- no matter what Carroll said about it after the game.

11) As far as legacy and story lines go, let's start with the Seahawks. Yes, they won the Super Bowl last year, but this game will stick with them forever. They had everything lined up to win the game and win back-to-back Super Bowls, and they let it get away from them with stupidity and bad coaching at the end. They will probably get back to another Super Bowl in the next five years because they have Russell Wilson and they have built a good franchise, but if they don't win another Super Bowl, then this game will stick in their gut for a long, long time. We know how hard it is to keep a team together, and the Seahawks will be a different team going forward. They will be good for the next few years, but this was an opportunity that was lost for this franchise.

12) The Patriots suffered two heartbreaking losses to the Giants in 2007 and 2011, and they finally knocked that the door to win their 4th Super Bowl in 14 years. Belichick gets his 4th Super Bowl to tie Chuck Noll, and Brady ties Bradshaw and Montana for most Super Bowl wins for QBs. This wipes out the pain from the Giants losses, and in a game that the Patriots had to win, they found a way to do it. Their offensive game plan was superb, and give Josh McDaniels credit for that. He decided to put the game into Brady's hands and that was the perfect move. Everytime the Seahawks went man-to-man with Gronk, the Pats went after that matchup and Gronk was a nightmare for Seattle. Also, give Belichick credit for inserting little-known Malcolm Butler in the game after Kyle Arrington was getting abused during the game. Give the Pats credit even though the Seahawks botched the end of the game.

13) Now to Brady. He was fantastic and deserved to win the MVP of the game. He finished 37-50 for 328 yards with 4 touchdowns to go with the 2 interceptions. He meticulously picked apart the vaunted Seattle defense, and he was down two scores in the 4th quarter and drove his team to the two scores that they needed to have. His legacy was on the line in this game and he secured it with this performance. He will go down as one of the greatest QBs to ever play the game. My all-time QB list right now is this: Montana, Brady, Elway, Manning, Unitas, and Marino. That was it is at this point in my view. Brady was brilliant and the scary thing is that even at 37 years old, it feels like he isn't done going forward.

14) Now that the Patriots have won, I like to look ahead to see who they will host on the Thursday Night Opener in September to start the 2015 season. It looks like Pittsburgh will be the matchup because they are the only really good and legitimate team that will be the sexy game for the Pats to open up with. Also, for the America's Game series on NFL Network, I think they will go with Brady, Belichick, and Robert Kraft for the personalities to narrate the show.

14) Finally, where does this Super Bowl rank in history? It is definitely a top five Super Bowl, and I would list the top five games as follows: 1) Super Bowl XXXII-Denver over Green Bay 2) Super Bowl XXV-Giants over Buffalo 3) This Super Bowl 4) Super Bowl XLII-Giants over Pats and 5) Super Bowl XXVI-Pats over Rams. It was a great game between the two best teams in the NFL going at it in a slugfest between two heavyweights of the NFL. Belichick, Brady, and the Pats get their 4th Super Bowl title, and the Seahawks are denied their back-to-back title. It had everything you would want in a game. Big stars making big plays, back and forth play, key strategic decisions, and an ending that was as shocking as possible. This is the kind of game the NFL needed after the public relations nightmare that it endured in 2014. It was the kind of game that made you realize once again how great the NFL is and great the product can be.