Sunday, August 10, 2008

NFL Predictions Formula!!!

As I start out my Inagural NFL Predictions, I just want to make a few points clear. First, if anyone is going to make predictions related to the NFL season they must take into account that the NFL has 32 teams playing 16 games. If you multiply 32 x 16 you get a total of 512. Each game is decided and very, very rarely is there a tie. Now, if you are going to predict the records of each team, then every team's wins cannot exceed 256 and every team's losses cannot exceed 256. Every year experts from ESPN, NFL Network, SI, and all other newspapers always make predictions and fail to take this into account. If you are going to pick every team's record, then do it the right way. All of my picks will be given with a record and all of those records will correspond with the number of games played in the NFL season. Next, I want to unveil my NFL Picking Formula. Each year the NFL goes under some sort of turmoil. Division winners end up missing the playoffs, some playoff teams end up in last place in their division, and Super Bowl teams ending up falling apart. There is a way to predict these kind of changes. Usually about half of the previous season's playoff teams fail to make the playoffs. 6 out of the 12 teams won't be back in the playoffs the next year, and about half of the division winners don't repeat the next year too. If you want evidence take a look at each playoff year since the NFL realigned in 2002. In 2003, 2/8 Division Winners and 4/12 playoff teams returned. In 2004, it was 4/8 Division Winners and 7/12 playoff teams. In '05, it was 3/8 and 5/12. In 2006, it was 4/8 and 5/12. In 2007, it was 4/8 and 6/12. The evidence is all there. So if you are going to pick every division winner and playoff participants, it most likely will be 4 out of 8 repeat division winners and 6 out of 12 playoff returnees. I will use this formula this season when I make my picks. Coming Soon: NFC WEST PREDICITIONS!!!!!

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