The NFL hits Week 12, and all weekend you are going to hear or see graphics that show who is in the playoffs, who is out of the playoffs, and where each team is seeded. Here is some advice: Take it all with a grain of salt. So much can change in the playoff picture the last five weeks. One week a team can be slotted as the one seed, and the next week they lose and they are a six seed. I admit that is fun to try and figure out the playoff seedings and matchups, but you can't get too wrapped up into it because it will change so much from now until the final game in Week 17. The question that keeps getting raised is that should the NFC West winner host the playoff game? Eventhough that winner might only have an 8-8 or 7-9 record, they will host the game over a wildcard team with at least 10 or 11 wins. Does it seem fair? No, but that is the system that was created. Divisions matter in the NFL, and I don't think that a division winner should go on the road and face a wildcard team with a better record. If anything it adds a little more intrigue to that matchup. For instance, if Seattle wins the NFC West at 8-8 and hosts 11-5 New Orleans in the first round is that the end of the world? Sure the Saints will be favored, but at least there is somewhat of a chance that Seattle will give them a good game for awhile-especially with the crowd that Seattle plays in front of. If New Orleans hosted the Seahawks, then that game is a complete wash out and non-factor. Look, if you win your division you host a playoff game. Forget about the records. It is not the Seahawks or Rams fault that they play in the NFC West. It is not their fault that the Saints couldn't beat out Atlanta for the NFC South crown. The divisions matter in the NFL, so that's why I have no problem with it and it shouldn't be changed.
Now, if anything needs to be changed about the NFL playoff format, then there is one suggestion that I think needs to be made: ADD ANOTHER PLAYOFF TEAM. Think about it. The NFL is suggesting adding 18 games to the schedule, so it could generate more revenue. Here is a way to generate more revenue:
1) Add an extra wildcard team to the playoffs in each conference.
2) The number one team in each conference gets a bye into the divisional round.
3) The number two seed hosts a wildcard game against the 7th seed, and the rest of the games go as it does now: 3 hosts 6 and 4 hosts 5.
4) You are not really diluting the playoff field because now only 14 of the 32 teams make the playoffs, and that is still less then half the league.
5) You can eliminate situations where an 8-8 team makes the playoffs because they are in a bad division, and an 11-5 or 10-6 team misses the playoffs because they are stuck in a really competitive division.
6) The NFL can now have a tripleheader on Saturday and Sunday of wildcard weekend. You can have games at 1:00pm EST, 4:30pm EST, and 8:00pm EST.
7) The League can then get an outside bidder to bid on these playoff games (TNT, TBS, or Versus) to add more money to the television revenue. If they want to keep the games in house, then ESPN could get two of the games (Say the two afternoon slots on Saturday) at a higher price then they paid for the NFL games before. Either way you are increasing the amount of revenue for any network to show these games. Plus, owners are making more money becaus one extra team makes the playoffs, and the number two seed gets an extra home game.
If this scenario was in place last year, here is how the playoffs would have looked:
AFC
7) Houston at 2)San Diego
6)Baltimore at 3) New England
5) Jets at 4) Cincy
NFC
7) Atlanta at 2) Minnesota
6) Philly at 3) Dallas
5) Green Bay at 4) Arizona
You could have set it up like this:
Saturday
1:00pm-ESPN- Jets at Cincy
4:00pm-ESPN-Houston at San Diego
8:00pm-NBC-Philly at Dallas
Sunday
1:00pm-CBS-Baltimore at NE
4:00pm-FOX-Green Bay at Arizona
8:00pm-NBC-Atlanta at Minnesota
Forget the 18 game schedule, you need to just add two more playoff teams and the NFL would be all set for going forward and expanding their product. The revenue will increase and everyone-owners, fans, players- will be happy.
Here are the picks for Week 12...........
Last Week's Record: (7-7-2)
This Week's Record: (1-0-0)
Overall Record: (97-74-8)
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)
Buffalo (+6) over MINNESOTA: It is hard to tell what kind of team the Vikings are going to be the rest of the way, but you would have to expect them to have a let down one week. The Bills play hard every week, and they are just a few plays away from being a 5-6 team. The Bills go on the road this week, and they might not win, but they will make it interesting for most of the game.
MIAMI (-4) over Cleveland: I'm not sure if Colt McCoy will play for the Browns, but if he doesn't play, then this game is a slam dunk for the Fish. Watch out for the Dolphins. Everyone counted them out after their loss to the Bears two weeks ago. They got a big road win at Oakland last week. The Fish get to 7-5 after this win at home.
TENNESSEE (-3) over Jacksonville: The Titans get Kerry Collins back this week from injury. They have lost four in a row, but this week they will break through and get the win at home over the Jags. Jacksonville has really overachieved this year, but this is a tough game for them. Look for the Titans to get to 6-6.
Washington (+7) over NY GIANTS: The Giants are all banged up on the offensive side of the ball, and you really don't know what to expect from the Redskins. The Skins are up and down all year long, but they still are a dangerous team for the G-Men. At 5-6, the Redskins are not dead yet, and this game just feels like it is a field goal game. I'll take the Skins outright 19-16.
DETROIT (+6) over Chicago: I'll take the Lions and the points this week at home. Detroit has been competitive all year long, and there is no reason to think they won't play well this week. The Bears come in flying with a four game win streak. I don't trust Lovie Smith, Jay Cutler or the Bears yet, so the Lions pull off an upset at home.
GREEN BAY (-7) over San Francisco: It would be a shame if the Packers don't make the playoffs this year. They are a really fun team to watch. SF comes in at 4-7 and in the thick of the NFC West title hunt. This smells like a rout and expect the Packers to take of business early.
CINCY (+7) over New Orleans: The Saints are 8-3, and they are looking to make their move in the NFC South. I think they will have trouble on the road this week. This is the Bengals Super Bowl. They have lost 7 straight games. The Bengals will push the Saints to limit this week, and they might even win it outright.
TAMPA BAY (+3) over Atlanta: The Falcons are 9-2 and are the number one team in NFC, but they are due for an off week. The Bucs play hard and despite their lack of talent, they are very tough competitive. They played the Falcons shot for shot a few weeks ago, and this game will be no different. Take the home underdog in this one.
Oakland (+13) over SAN DIEGO: The Chargers are rolling at 6-5, and everyone believes that they are making their run again in the AFC West. Although that seems very likely, I have a feeling they are in for a letdown one of these weeks. The Raiders beat them the first meeting in which they blocked two SD punts. This will be a closer game then expected, and if the Raiders get any kind of quality play out of QB Jason Campbell, they could pull an upset. This game will be closer then a lot of people expect.
SEATTLE (-5) over Carolina: You would have to think the Seahawks get back on track this week against the one win Panthers. Seattle should win this game by at least a touchdown.
INDY (-5) over Dallas: The Colts might be getting some injured players back this week. They are not losing three in a row and two straight at home, no matter how banged up they are. The Cowboys are playing better for interim HC Jason Garrett. This could be a good game for awhile, but I'll take the Colts and Peyton Manning at home to get to 7-5.
St.Louis (-3) over ARIZONA: I just can't figure the NFC West teams out when they play each other. I'll take the Rams with Sam Bradford this week to get to 6-6. We are getting closer to the epic SNF finale between the 7-8 Rams and the 7-8 Seahawks for the NFC West title.
Pittsburgh (+3) over BALTIMORE: This is the first of two huge AFC matchups this weekend. This is the first one on SNF. The games between the Steelers and Ravens are always bloodbaths. Baltimore won the first meeting 17-14 late, but the Steelers didn't have Big Ben. I know the Steelers are hurting on the offensive line, but they will make enough plays to win this game on the road. Call it 23-20 Steelers.
New York Jets (+3) over NEW ENGLAND: The second huge AFC matchup is on MNF this week. All signs point to a Patriots win: They lost their first matchup to the Jets in Week 2, they are at home, Tom Brady is playing lights out, Bill Belichick will make adjustments on defense, and the Pats are looking for revenge. I just have a sneaking suspicion that the Jets will get the win this week. Both teams are 9-2, but the Pats have more wins over quality opponents. The Jets have struggled to beat some really poor teams. Both teams will move the ball on each other, but I just keep thinking that this might be the Jets year. They have had all the breaks fall their way, and this week they will get another. Jets-28 Pats-27.
KANSAS CITY (-8) over Denver: The Broncos are 3-8 and nothing would be better then to have them spoil the Chiefs' year. After completely destroying KC 49-29 a few weeks ago, Denver and their embattled Head Coach, Josh McDaniels, come in reeling. The Chiefs are very tough at home, and they got a big road win last week in Seattle. The Chiefs and Todd Haley want revenge on Denver for what happened in that game in Denver. The Chiefs want blood this week and they might get it. I see the Chiefs jumping out to a big lead-say 10-0 or 14-3 early. Denver will stabilize the game, but the Chiefs will pull away late to bury the Broncos and put McDaniels' future with the team in jeopardy.
Final Score: Chiefs:34 Denver:13
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