Week 1 Picks!!

Nothing better than getting back into the grove of a new NFL season and getting the picks going again. One thing about Week 1: There will always be a game or two that just completely shocks you. If Pittsburgh rolls into Denver and pounds the rusty Peyton Manning and the Broncos 31-17, that won't really surprise too many people. I am talking about a real shocker that sets the tone for the season and one of the two teams involved. A perfect example would be the 2003 season opener between Miami and Houston. Miami was a sexy pick that year to get to the Super Bowl in the AFC. Houston was only in their second year of existence. In Week 1, the Texans shocked the Dolphins 21-20 on a late field goal. The Dolphins did finish 10-6 that year, but they missed out on a tiebreaker and failed to make the playoffs. That one game changed the fortunes for Miami that year, and it also destroyed many suicide pools in the process. Guess who Houston opens the 2012 season with? Yup, the Dolphins head to Houston with one of the biggest lines of the week. There are a few Week 1 games that could surprise. First, keep an eye on Indianapolis at Chicago. The Bears are getting a lot of preseason hype this year, but it wouldn't shock me to see Andrew Luck throw up 330 yards and out duel Jay Cutler in a shootout at Soldier Field. Also, look out for the rookie debut of Robert Griffin III as the Redskins head to New Orleans. It wouldn't surprise me if RG III puts together some type of video game performance and leads Washington to an upset win over the Saints. The offseason is a thing of the past, and the preseason is now complete. It is now time for the start of the 2012 NFL season. Let's get it going with some Week 1 picks.......

Last Season's Regular Season Record: 112-116-14
Last Season's Playoff Record: 3-7-1
Total Cumulative Record: 115-123-15

2012 Record 0-1
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

Indianapolis (+10) over CHICAGO: Watch out for this game in Week 1. This could be the shocker of the first weekend. You have to love what you have seen out of Andrew Luck so far in Indy. The Bears defense is going into the season with some question marks-especially regarding Brian Urlacher's health. A lot of people love the Bears this year, but this game could be closer than people expect.

Philadelphia (-8) over CLEVELAND: What do you make of this game? The Browns are rebuilding and there was even some question if Trent Richardson was going to play. If he does, I still don't think it will matter. This game just looks like a real layup for the Eagles in Week 1.

Buffalo (+3) over NY JETS: I have loved this game since the day the schedule came out. This is a statement game for the Bills. They need to prove that they are better than the Jets, and this is the perfect opportunity. Their defensive line could give the Jets fits up front, and no receiver plays better against Darrelle Revis than Buffalo's Stevie Johnson. This will be a back and forth game, but look for the Bills to pull it out late.

Washington (+8) over NEW ORLEANS: Either Robert Griffin III or Andrew Luck are going to come out and pull an upset in Week 1, so why not pick both of their teams getting a lot of points. I am very interested to see how RG III does in his first real game. I just can't see the Saints coming out and dominating without Sean Payton. This could be the upset special #2 the first week.

TENNESSEE (+6) over New England: I'm picking the Titans in an upset, but it won't surprise me if the Pats are leading this game 31-10 at the half. I'm going with my gut on this one, and I'm banking on the fact that the Titans defensive line will win the matchup with the Pats offensive line.

MINNESOTA (-3.5) over Jacksonville: A battle of two bottom feeders in Week 1. I guess you take the Vikings at home in this game. Maurice Jones-Drew just ended his holdout with the Jaguars, so he might be limited in this first game. Take the Vikes only laying four.

Miami (+12) over HOUSTON: This might be the biggest mismatch in Week 1. The Texans defense should feast on rookie QB Ryan Tannehill. The crowd will be pumped, the defense will be able to tee off on that Miami offense, and the Texans should be able to pound the ball all day long. Look for an easy win at home for Houston, but I'm just not ready to lay the 12 points yet in the first week.

St. Louis (+8) over DETROIT: I'm taking the Rams and the points because I want to see what the Lions have to offer in 2012 before I start to bet with them. This game intrigues me because the Rams should be better than last year, and the Lions could take a step back. Detroit will probably win the game, but maybe the Rams keep it closer than expected.

KANSAS CITY (+3) over Atlanta: The Falcons could be walking into a buzzsaw this week. Arrowhead is always loud, and the KC fans will be really pumped up for this season opener. A lot of people believe the Chiefs are back this year, and the Falcons could be in for a rough start to their season. This game feels like a 27-10 KC win.

GREEN BAY (-5) over San Francisco: I love the Packers in this spot. This looks like one of those games where Green Bay gets an early lead with the help of Aaron Rodgers. Then, the defense forces a 49er turnover, and the next thing you know it is 14-0 with like eight minutes gone in the first quarter. Love the Pack in this game.

Seattle (-2) over ARIZONA: The Cardinals will go with John Skelton to start Week 1. They are at home, so that might be their only advantage. The Seahawks are the better team and will prove it right away in this opening game. Look for Seattle under rookie QB Russell Wilson to take it to Arizona and get the easy win.

TAMPA BAY (+3) over Carolina: New head coach Greg Schiano makes his debut for the Buccaneers. The Bucs will have some energy for this opener, and I think they will feed off it. Josh Freeman should bounce back from a down year last year, and the Bucs will be better than their 4-12 record from a year ago. I expect them to fight for a wild card spot this year. The Panthers could very well be a sleeper team in the NFC, but I think they will fall to Tampa Bay in the first game of the season.

BALTIMORE (-6) over Cincy: Not the marquee Monday Night Football opener that we are accustomed to, but it is a big game in the AFC North. The Bengals were the surprise of the AFC last year, but they couldn't beat either Pittsburgh or Baltimore. This is a huge statement game for them in their division. The Ravens are the consensus Super Bowl pick in the AFC, but they have a long way to go before they get there. They will start the season with a big win over their division rivals.

OAKLAND (-1) over San Diego: This game could go either way, but San Diego offensive tackle Jared Gaither will miss this game and that could alter the outcome. If the Chargers can't protect Philip Rivers, they had some trouble against the Raiders last year, then they will have trouble moving the ball and scoring points. Look for Darren McFadden to have a big night, and Dennis Allen gets a win in his first ever game as an NFL head coach. Take the Raiders in a mild upset.

Pittsburgh (+1) over DENVER: This is the main event of Week 1. Peyton Manning's debut as a Bronco in front of a national audience on NBC's Sunday Night Football. This is also a playoff rematch from last year's Wild Card round. Take everything that happened in that game and throw it out the window. The Steelers are not preparing for Tim Tebow and the zone-read spread offense. The Broncos can't look at anything that Pittsburgh did to them last year and use it to prepare for their new offense with Peyton Manning. Even Denver's defense will be somewhat different because the Broncos have a new defensive coordinator in Jack Del Rio, and Dennis Allen was coordinating the defense during last year's game. This will be a very tough game for Denver, but the fact that they are at home will give them an advantage. Plus, Ryan Clark will be out because of the altitude in Denver, and Rashard Mendenhall might not play too much. A lot of people are picking Denver to win, but I just need to see how Manning looks in a regular season setting at a regular season speed. Once I see Peyton and the Broncos play in a few games, then I will get a better feel for this team. Tough opener for the Broncos, and I see the Steelers coming to Denver and spoiling the party. Pittsburgh will put it away late.

Final Score: Pittsburgh-31 Denver-23