Divisional Round Picks!!!

Many people describe the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs as the “Best weekend of football.” I tend to agree with that statement because in this round all the top teams come into play. This round has proven in the past few years to be very tricky for the top teams. At least one team with a bye has lost in this round every year going back to 2005. Last year, Denver was the #1 seed and went down at home to Baltimore, so Broncos fans have had this happen in recent history. I think this year the possibilities of an upset are just as strong. All four road teams this week feature top-flight or dangerous QBs. Drew Brees for New Orleans has already won a Super Bowl. Philip Rivers is one of the top QBs in the league for San Diego. Andrew Luck is an emerging superstar for Indy, and Colin Kaepernick has already led the Niners to a Super Bowl just last year. All four road teams are dangerous as a result, and it would shock no one to see a few of the top four seeds get picked off this weekend. Here we go with the picks for Divisional Weekend…..

Last Week’s Record: 2-0-2

Overall Playoff Record: 2-0-2

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

(6) New Orleans at (1) Seattle:

A Case for the Saints: New Orleans finally got their first playoff win in franchise history last week at Philly. Now, they can put that talk to bed and loose on the road once again this week. The Saints got killed in Seattle on that Monday night just over a month ago. I think that actually helps the Saints and makes them more dangerous in this game. Do you really want to give any more motivation to Sean Payton and Drew Brees? Both of them are dangerous when they are backed into a corner. The Saints were so thoroughly embarrassed by that loss that I totally see them going all-in this week and giving Seattle a fight to the end. The Saints are huge underdogs , but with Brees and Payton, I like their chances.

A Case for the Seahawks: Seattle is simply the better team. In fact, Seattle has been the best team in the NFL since Week 1. They are the most complete team, and they are the only team that still has a true homefield advantage. The fact that the Seahawks lost a home game this season is actually a good thing heading into this game. If they jump on the Saints early, then watch out because this game could get turn into a route. You have a feeling that the Seahawks will come out very excited and prepared to put up a big effort on Saturday.

Prediction: New Orleans (+8) over SEATTLE: The fact that this game was such a blowout in the regular season makes me like the Saints chances even more. I think the Saints are dangerous in this spot as a huge underdog. I think they will take this game deep into the 4^th quarter and have a chance. Maybe Seattle pulls it out late, but this will be one heck of a game either way.

Final Score: Seahawks-29 Saints-26

(4) Indianapolis at (2) New England

A Case for the Colts: Why not ride the arm of Andrew Luck at this point? Last week in the comeback win over the Chiefs, he officially made the leap to the “Next One.” We all knew it was coming, but last week was the time he put a stamp on it. Luck’s run could resemble Ben Roethlisberger’s run in 2005. As a second year QB, Big Ben ripped off three straight road wins to get to the Super Bowl. I could sense the same thing happening here with Luck. Let’s be honest, do you think the Patriots really want to see Luck with the ball in a one possession game. Maybe it is kind of a passing of the torch type game where Luck outduels Brady. I wouldn’t put it past him.

A Case for the Patriots: As inconsistent the Pats secondary has been all year long, you have to figure that they will find a way to stop T.Y. Hilton and force Luck to find someone else to beat them. If that is the case, then the Pats chances of winning this game increase dramatically. The Pats are the better team, and they are at home in their familiar Saturday night playoff spot. You have to like your chances with Tom Brady and Bill Belichick in this situation. Plus, if the Pats jump on the Colts early, they are not going to give up a big lead like Kansas City did. That is just not happening to New England.

Prediction: Indy (+8) over NEW ENGLAND: The Pats will win this game, but it will be closer than people expect. Plus, you always have the possibility for a late, backdoor cover by Luck, so that has to go into your thinking. This game will be pretty competitive throughout, but expect the Pats to win and reach their third straight AFC Championship Game.

Final Score: Patriots-31 Colts-24

(5) San Francisco at (2) Carolina

A Case for the 49ers: Do anyone want to see this team coming into their building? I didn’t think so. The Niners did lose to the Panthers back on December 1^st, but they were without Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree. Overall, the Niners are the superior team, and it wouldn’t shock anyone to see them go on the road and domintate the Panthers. The Niners are battle tested, and playoff experience is a huge factor considering the Panthers haven’t been to the playoffs since 2008, and Cam Newton is making his first ever playoff start.

A Case for the Panthers: They are at home and they have really good defense. That should be able to help you in any playoff atmosphere. Plus, is this Cam Newton’s moment? He resurrected himself this season, and maybe this is his time in his first ever playoff appearance. If the game is close late, then you know Cam can find a way to win the game. Although they are at home, the Panthers have less pressure on them than the Niners. Carolina can play fast and loose and take chances like they have all year.

Prediction: San Francisco (PICK) over CAROLINA: This has the makings of a classic, slugfest. Two physical teams with really good defenses going after each other. I know Carolina won the first matchup in San Francisco, I think the 49ers get the best of them here in the rematch. I just think that the Niners are the better team, and I think that we are destined for a SF-Seattle NFC Championship Game.

Final Score: 49ers-27 Panthers-13

Broncos Storylines Heading Into Postseason

Last year, I decided to do a Broncos Mailbag after the regular season and before the postseason. I wanted to do a postseason mailbag eventually after a Broncos Super Bowl win. Denver lost in their first playoff game to Baltimore, so I decided to change it up this year. I will do a final mailbag once the Broncos entire season is over-hopefully after a Super Bowl victory. Let’s change it up with a look at the five biggest storylines for the Broncos as they enter the postseason.

1)    Orange Crush? Denver’s defense has been pretty inconsistent all year long. They have put some good stretches together, but they have also looked absolutely terrible at times. Now, Denver enters the playoffs without their best defensive player, Von Miller, who is out with an ACL injury. How will John Fox and Jack Del Rio get this defense ready for a playoff run? They don’t need to be great for three games, they just need to get some key stops at certain times.

2)    Happy Holliday: We all remember how much of a force that Trindon Holliday was in last year’s playoff game against Baltimore. He returned a punt and a kick for a touchdown. He had a punt and a kick return for a touchdown in the first four weeks of the season, but he has basically disappeared since then. I know that he has had some issues fielding punts, but he is a gamebreaker. The Broncos need him to make an impact once again in these playoffs.

3)    Special Teams Playing Special: The Broncos overall special teams play has been spotty the past few months. They have struggled on returns, and they have had trouble with almost every aspect in the coverage units. They need to avoid these mistakes in the playoffs. Matt Prater had a fine year this year. He missed only one field goal attempt all season, and he broke the NFL record for longest field goal with a 64 yarder against the Titans. He had a really bad game last year against Baltimore, and he is going to have to come up huge this week and going forward if the Broncos advance. Last year, they had one of the best special teams units in the NFL. This year, they haven’t been consistent enough. They need to tighten that unit up in the playoffs.

4)    Last Year’s Scar: The Broncos went into last year’s Divisional Playoffs as huge favorites over the Ravens. They were also the consensus pick to win the Super Bowl. We all know how it worked out. Their defeat at the hands of the Ravens was probably the hardest defeat in franchise history. A year later, they are in the same exact spot. They finished 13-3 and they are the #1 seed in the AFC. They are favored at home over San Diego. They have a chance to erase last year’s memory of playoff defeat. All year long they talked about using last year’s loss as motivation. Can they do that? Can they take advantage of being in the same position the second time around?

5)    All About Manning: The entire NFL playoffs revolve around Peyton Manning. Can he win another Super Bowl? He is probably the greatest regular season QB of all time, but he needs another ring to cement his legacy as the greatest QB who ever lived. He can do that if he wins that elusive second Super Bowl this year. He has faced a year of criticism after losing to the Ravens last year. His playoff record stands at 9-11. He needs to make one more run to the Super Bowl. He has a record-setting offense that put up over 600 points this season. This is his moment. He can’t let it slip away once again. 

Wildcard Weekend Thoughts and Reaction

The playoffs began with an amazing Wildcard Weekend. Three road teams won and three out of the four games were nailbiters that came down to the end. It really sets up a very interesting Divisional Round next weekend. Here are my thoughts and reactions to the games in sequential order…..

(4) Indianapolis-45 (5) Kansas City-44

-What can you say about Andrew Luck? After a terrible first half, he came alive with the Colts down 38-10 in the third quarter. His game-winning throw to T.Y. Hilton was one of the best throws I have seen all year long. He was absolutely amazing in the second half, and it was his moment where he officially arrived as the next big thing as far as NFL QBs are concerned.

-The story of this game was the collapse of the Chiefs. This is about as bad as it gets for the Chiefs and their fans. To blow a lead like that in a playoff game is inexcusable. KC hasn’t won a playoff game since 1993, and this might be as close as you can get to win a playoff game. You have to wonder about the level of frustration for the Chiefs and the fanbase after another heartbreaking playoff defeat.

-To be fair to the Chiefs, they were really banged up as this game went on. They had injuries in their secondary and Luck and the Colts were able to exploit it.

-The problem was that the Colts were able to score so quickly, so every time you looked up there was still so much time left in the game that the Colts still had more than enough time to get back into the game.

-This was a classic game that really set the tone for the weekend. What a comeback and what a finish.

(6) New Orleans-26 (3) Philly-24

-The Saints gameplan was fantastic. They were able to run the ball and control the line of scrimmage with Mark Ingram and their running game. It allowed them to keep the down and distance at a manageable margin.

-Give the Eagles credit for coming back down 20-7 late in the third quarter. I thought the Saints took control of the game, and then Philly was able to get it back. Eventually, they were able to take a 24-23 lead with just over five minutes to go.

-The big play in this game was when Darren Sproles took a short kickoff and got a big return with the Saints down 24-23. Throw in a horse collar tackle and now the Saints were in great field position with Drew Brees at the helm. Naturally, Brees and the Saints moved the ball the rest of the way and won the game on a walkoff field goal.

-It wasn't a classic game, but it was a really good game that came down to the wire. The Saints were able to get their road woes off their back, and now head to Seattle for a rematch with the Seahawks.

(6) San Diego-27 (3) Cincy-10

-The story of this game is the terrible job by Cincy and Andy Dalton. The Bengals were a 7 point favorite and many people had them penciled in for a run to the Super Bowl. They came up really flat in this game. It was served up for them and they completely botched it. Dalton will still have to deal with the criticism, but the whole offense was just poor all game. The Bengals and Marvin Lewis are now 0-5 together in the playoffs and that includes three home losses. This is a franchise that hasn't won a playoff game since 1990. This looked like the game that they were going to breakthrough. What a bitter pill this will be for them in the offseason and what a disappointing finish to the season.

-I thought the Chargers really took over in the second half. Their defense just swarmed and attacked the Bengals offense, and they forced three second half turnovers. Credit the Chargers defense for putting on a show in the second half.

-Phillip Rivers wasn’t asked to do a lot, but he managed the game well, and he made three throws that were absolutely crucial in the second half. He is playing great and this team is very dangerous. I wasn’t surprised at all that they won this game.

-The turning point for me was when the game was tied at 7 and Cincy was driving deep in San Diego territory. Dalton hit Giovanni Bernard for a checkdown that Bernard looked like he was going to put the ball inside the five for a 1^st and goal, but he was hit from behind and fumbled. It took away a possible 14-7 lead for Cincy at the half. It seemed like they never recovered from that play.

(5) San Francisco-23 (4) Green Bay-20

-What an atmosphere in frigid Green Bay on Sunday. The temps were like -15 degrees. Nothing is better than watching playoff football in January in Lambeau Field. This game went back and forth all game long. Just a fun game to watch.

-The Niners dominated the first half, and they were only up 13-10 at halftime. It was weird because it just felt that Green Bay would find a way to win the game late.

-The Packers and Aaron Rodgers were valiant, but I thought they missed a key opportunity late in the game. Down 20-17 late in the game, they couldn’t convert with a 1^st and Goal situation, and they settled for a field goal. You just had a feeling that would come back to haunt them.

-Green Bay’s Micah Hyde dropped a surefire interception and if he makes that pick on the last SF drive, then Green Bay probably wins this game. It will be a play that will haunt the Packers all offseason.

-Credit Colin Kaepernick on the final drive. He made a huge throw to Michael Crabtree, and the made another huge third down run to get them into field goal range. That play basically won the game for the Niners.

-SF is a gutty and gritty team. They remind of the Ravens of recent memory. They now have 4 playoff wins in the last three years, and they head to Carolina next Sunday as a favorite on the road. 

Wild Card Weekend Preview!!!!

The NFL Playoffs have become a crapshoot. Just look at the recent history: In the last 8 seasons, a #1 seed has been knocked off in the Divisional Round 7 out of those 8 years. 4 out of the last 6 Super Bowl winners were playing on Wild Card weekend and didn't have the bye. In 2010, both #1 seeds got knocked off in their first game. The seeds for the last 3 Super Bowl winners were: 4,4, and 6. The bottom line is that it is a one-game playoff and with the teams so close together now, there is really no margin for error for a top-seeded favorite. Teams can win three straight road games to get to the Super Bowl. Teams don't need the bye to go all the way. It is different than 15 years ago. This year is no different. There is a really good chance that teams playing this weekend will be playing in Metlife Stadium in February. That "March Madness" aspect to it makes it a lot of fun (Unless your a Broncos fan with the #1 seed and the bye and all the pressure in the world to get to the Super Bowl with Peyton Manning). Let's start breaking it down with this weekend's Wild Card picks.....


(5) Kansas City at (4) Indianapolis:

A Case for the Chiefs: The Chiefs haven't won a playoff game since Joe Montana upset the Houston Oilers in the Astrodome in the 1993 Divisional Round. They are certainly due for a playoff win. I actually predicted back in August that they would win at least one playoff game this year, so I do have some sort of vested interest. Plus, they got buried at home by this same Colts team just two weeks ago. If anything, public opinion has gone away from the Chiefs recently. Remember when the Chiefs were 9-0 and they were looking at the #1 seed in the AFC? They finished 11-5, and now have to go on the road to take on the Colts who beat them recently. Got a feeling by Saturday they are going to be a decided underdog. You know how underdogs can fair in the NFL playoffs. Can't you see the Chiefs putting it together and bring their "A" game this week?

A Case for the Colts: Indy has the best player on the field in Andrew Luck. Could this be the start of Luck's signature run? Just like Aaron Rodgers arrived as the man in 2010 with his performance in those playoffs, maybe this is the moment for Luck. It will come eventually. Last year, he took his licks in the loss to Baltimore. The Colts hit a rough patch midway through the season. Maybe they have righted the ship just enough to get hot. As good as KC's defense has been, I could see Luck just going off at home. Perhaps it is one of those 28-34 330 yard and 3 touchdown kind of days. Plus, you have to like the fact that Robert Mathis will have the advantage of playing at home and can tee off on Alex Smith with the help of the crowd noise.

Prediction: INDY (-1) over Kansas City: Toughest game to pick this weekend. These two teams are pretty evenly matched at this point in the year. If you have to take someone, I'll take Luck over Alex Smith-especially since the Colts are at home.

Final Score: Colts-27 Kansas City-20

(6) New Orleans at (3) Philadelphia:

A Case for the Saints: The Saints were basically fighting for the #1 seed in the NFC less a month ago, and now they are the #6 seed and on the road. When you are trying to win on the road in the playoffs, you have to look at the QB situation. The Saints have Drew Brees, and that at least gives them a fighting chance. Also, all week the Saints are going to hear about playing outside and on the road in cold weather. This game Saturday night should be really cold after a blizzard hits the Northeast on Friday. Doesn't it just seem like a perfect situation for the Saints to break out of this cold-weather/road game malaise that they are in this year? I could totally see it happening, and the Saints could use that as tremendous motivation for Saturday night.

A Case for the Eagles: One, they are at home and the Saints are coming into a raucous, drunk Philly crowd on a cold, Saturday night Wild Card game. Two, the Eagles have put together quite a run in the second half of the season. They are 7-3 in their last 10 games, and Nick Foles was the best QB this year outside of Peyton Manning. With Foles, Lesean McCoy, and Desean Jackson, the Eagles could very easily put up lots of yards and points on the overrated Saints defense. The third factor might be Chip Kelly. This might be his time where he completely undresses and outcoaches Sean Payton, and makes everyone believe that Kelly is the next "big-time" NFL head coach. I doubt that will be the case, but don't underestimate Kelly in this spot-even against a top coach like Payton.

Prediction: New Orleans (+4) over PHILLY: I can totally see the Saints dropping a stink bomb to whimper they way into the offseason, but I got a feeling you will get the best out of Brees and company. Forget the weather for a second. If you had a choice between Brees and Foles, you would have to take Brees. I think the Saints find a way to put down the road demons at least for one week.

Final Score: Saints-30 Eagles-26

(6) San Diego at (3) Cincinnati:

A Case for the Chargers: The Chargers might be riding a wave of destiny right now. At 5-7, they looked out of the playoff chase, but they won four in a row including a big 27-20 road win at Denver in  Week 15. Plus, they beat KC in Week 17 after KC missed a 41-yard field goal at the end of the game. That field goal should have been kicked over because the Chargers lined up in an illegal formation, but the referees missed it and didn't throw a penalty flag. Also, the only reason why the Chargers were still alive for the playoffs was the fact that Baltimore and Miami both lost earlier in the day. Those are a lot of crazy scenarios that went the Chargers way for them just to get into the playoffs at 9-7. Now that they are in, can't you see them going on one of those runs like the Giants did in 2007 and 2011? I can definitely see it especially since they have Phillip Rivers. The Chargers offense has been good all year, and it wouldn't surprise me to see Rivers put the Bolts on his back and win this game in a shootout on the road.

A Case for the Bengals: The Bengals are desperately due for a playoff victory. They haven't won a playoff game since 1990. They dropped playoff games at home in 2005 and 2009. They lost to the Texans in back-to-back years the last two playoffs. They are definitely one of the top teams in the AFC and that is without Geno Atkins. I know Andy Dalton is shaky, but he is solid at home where the Bengals were 8-0 this year. Plus, the Bengals throttled the Chargers four weeks ago in San Diego. The Bengals were thrilled to see San Diego in the playoffs and not the Steelers. It just seems like it is the Bengals time after making the playoffs for the third year in a row and the fourth time in the last five seasons.

Prediction: San Diego (+7) over CINCY: This line seems way too high for me. You know how karma can sometimes play a role with teams in the playoffs, and right now I think the Chargers are about as dangerous as anyone in the field. I just have a feeling the Chargers and Rivers will find a way to win this game late. Whoever wins this game though might finds themselves in the AFC Championship as well.

Final Score: Chargers-30 Bengals-27

(5) San Francisco at (4) Green Bay:

A Case for the 49ers: They are the better team in this matchup. They have won 6 straight games, and they are battle-tested. This is a team that went to the Super Bowl last year, so they definitely have the playoff experience. They know how to play Green Bay too. They beat them in Week 1 the last two years, and they smacked them up in the playoffs last year. This game is portable too. They can play in the cold weather that is expected in Lambeau Field on Sunday. Finally, does anyone scare you more in the NFC than the Niners right now?  I didn't think so.

A Case for the Packers: Despite their 8-7-1 record, they get the home game over the 12-4 Niners because of the fact that they won their division. Fair or not doesn't matter because that is the way it is. The main reason to like the Packers is that Aaron Rodgers is back and so is Randall Cobb. If you watched how they took the game over last week in their division-clinching win over the Bears, then you can see how you have to give the Packers a legitimate shot to win this game. Perhaps the Packers are just now hitting their stride now that Rodgers is back. You have to think that revenge is on their mind especially with the way that last year's playoff loss turned out. They were embarrassed in Candlestick last year, and motivation is always a factor in the playoffs. You don't think Mike McCarthy reminded them of that this week.

Prediction: GREEN BAY (+3) over San Francisco: This is the best game of the weekend. I know the wind chill is supposed to be like -15 on Sunday, but weather aside, the Packers are dangerous in this spot. They have Aaron Rodgers and they are at home. They are getting healthy on offense at just the right time. Although the Niners are the better team, the Packers will find a way to win this game.

Final Score: Packers-24 49ers-21

Broncos Cruise Past Raiders, Lock Up #1 Seed in AFC

The Broncos finished off their 2013 season in style with an easy, blowout victory over the Raiders 34-14 to secure a 13-3 season and securing the #1 seed in the AFC for the second year in a row. Peyton Manning broke the NFL record for yards passing in a season and also added four touchdown passes to give him a ridiculous 55 for the season. The Broncos cruised to a 31-0 lead on the heels of Manning's four TD passes, and he even sat the entire second half of the game. Denver's defense was able to completely shut down an ineffective Terrelle Pryor, and really this game was over from the first drive. It actually worked out well because the Broncos were so far ahead that they were allowed to rest Manning for the second half and get some other important players out of the game without exposing them to any type of injury. For the Broncos, the regular season is now complete and the Broncos find themselves in the same exact spot they were in last year: 13-3 record, #1 seed in the AFC, homefield advantage throughout the playoffs, and a bye into the Divisional round. What happens next remains to be seen, and as we saw last year anything can happen once the NFL playoffs get going. I'll have a complete recap of the historic Broncos season and their chances going forward in the playoffs later on in the week. I'll take a look back at this week's game with my thoughts and observations first....

1) Hats off to Peyton Manning. He finished his amazing 2013 season with a performance like this in only one half of work: 25-28 for 266 yards and 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. He started with a short 3 yard touchdown pass to Eric Decker for a 7-0 lead. He got his second on the next series with a nice dumpoff to Knowshon Moreno for a 7 yard touchdown to make it 14-0. The beauty of the day was his next one which was a 63 yard bomb to Demaryius Thomas which he caught in stride to make it  24-0. He finished his day with a sweet 5 yard bullet to Thomas to make it 31-0 right before the half. It was about as good as you get for a performance for one half.

2) Decker and Thomas are quite a duo at the receiver position. Thomas caught 6 catches for 113 yards and 2 touchdowns. Decker added only 4 receptions for 27 yards and one touchdown. I think the Denver brass needs to lock up Decker after this year and Thomas after next season and keep this tandem together in Denver for a long time.

3) Knowshon Moreno concluded one of the most under the radar seasons for a running back in recent memory. He added a touchdown reception to go with 5 catches and 41 yards. He finished with 11 touches for 64 total yards. Amazing job by Moreno all year long.

4) Nice job by the Broncos defense this week, but let's be real for a moment: That was not a NFL offense that the Broncos played against this week. The Raiders were basically running a high school spread offense with Pryor, and the Broncos were prepared for everything. They harassed Pryor all day, and he was awful even when he had time. You really can't tell how this group will respond without Von Miller in the playoffs, but at least Champ Bailey got some meaningful snaps again, and if he is in the lineup it will certainly help them out in the postseason.

5) The Broncos needed to take control of this game early and not let the Raiders hang around. They were able to do that from the start. They scored on all five of their first half possessions with four touchdowns and one field goal. Their defense got an early turnover and it was over by the half. It was just a complete domination by the Broncos, and it was exactly what they needed. They took care of business and they were able to rest some starters in the second half while they locked up the AFC's top seed.

6) I will spend time later in the week on the significance of this Broncos season but just chew on some of these stats:
-606 points scored (NFL record)
-Average PPG: 37.8
-13 games with at least 30 points scored
-6 games with at least 40 points scored
-3 games with at least 50 points scored
-Peyton Manning: 5,477 yards passing (NFL record)
-Manning: 55 touchdown passes
-Knowshon Moreno: 1,038 yards rushing and 10 touchdowns rushing and 60 receptions for 548 yards and 3 touchdowns.
-Demaryius Thomas: 92 receptions for 1,430 yards and 14 touchdowns
-Eric Decker: 87 receptions for 1,288 yards and 11 touchdowns
-Wes Welker: 73 receptions for 778 yards and 10 touchdowns
-Julius Thomas: 65 receptions for 788 yards and 12 touchdowns

Just an incredible season offensively for the Broncos and their record setting offensive unit. If the Broncos win the Super Bowl this year, then I think this Broncos offense is going to have to average about 34 points a game and Manning is going to have to put his team on his back and ride them to the promised land.

7) I talk about this more later in the week, but it is very hard to go 13-3 in back-to-back seasons and they are the #1 seed once again for the second consecutive year. It is hard to make it to the playoffs back-to-back seasons in the NFL, let alone back-to-back #1 seeds. The Broncos faced a lot of adversity on and off the field this year, so to end up in the same exact spot one year after that awful defeat to the Ravens in the playoffs last year is pretty amazing. It was never really about the regular season for these Broncos, and we'll see what happens in the playoffs, but it was so much fun to watch Manning and this team week after week. It was like watching an artist complete his greatest piece of work every single week. I just hope the fun continues for three more games.

NFL Playoff Schedule Predictions and Week 17 Picks

With the final week of the 2013 season upon us, it is time for me to break out my Playoff Schedule Predictions for the 2013 NFL postseason. As always it is my guilty pleasure to try to predict what matchups will be scheduled in what timeslots on the different networks. It is always tough to call because the playoff teams are not set yet, but the NFL and the networks slot the games in certain spots. The games are rotated on a yearly basis, so the games have to be set up a certain way. Every year it fascinates me to see how the league sets up the games and how it affects the schedule, so every year I try to predict how it plays out before the games in Week 17. Here is what I think will happen based on my predictions for Week 17...

Wild Card Weekend:
Saturday January 4th
NBC-4:30pm EST: (5) Kansas City at (4) Indianapolis
NBC- 8:00pm EST: (5) San Francisco at (4) Green Bay

Sunday January 5th
FOX-1:00pm EST: (6) New Orleans at (3) Philadelphia
CBS-4:30pm EST: (6) San Diego at (3) Cincinnati

*If Miami gets the 6th seed, then I think that Miami and Cincy will still be on Sunday 1/5.
*If Chicago wins the North over Green Bay, then I still think that SF/Chi will be on Saturday night on NBC.

Divisional Weekend:
Saturday January 11th
FOX-4:30pm EST: @ Carolina
CBS-8:00pm EST: @ Denver

Saturday January 12th
CBS- 1:00pm EST: @ New England
FOX-4:00pm EST: @ Seattle

Before I get to my Week 17 picks, I am six games over .500 with one week to play. All I need to do is go at least 6-10 this week to finish with a record over .500 for the season which would be a great accomplishment for me this season. Onto the picks for Week 17...

Last Week's Record: 8-7-1
Overall Record: 118-112-12
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

ATLANTA (+6) over Carolina: I think the Panthers will win this game and grab the #2 seed in the NFC, but I think the Falcons will give them everything they have in this finale.

TENNESSEE (-7) over Houston: Meaningless game. The Titans get to 7-9 and the Texans secure the #1 pick in the NFL Draft with their 14th straight loss.

PITTSBURGH (-6) over Cleveland: The Steelers keep their faint playoff hopes alive for a few hours as they get to 8-8 with a win over their rival.

NY GIANTS (-2) over Washington: Another meaningless game and the G-Men get to 7-9 on the year, and the Mike Shanahan Era ends in Washington with a 3-13 campaign.

CINCY (-5) over Baltimore: The Bengals have plenty of motivation in this game. They can knock the Ravens out of the playoffs and they can still get the #2 seed in the AFC.

INDY (-10) over Jacksonville: Indy could still get the #3 seed and they have an outside shot at the #2 seed. They will take care of their end by thumping the Jags at home.

New York Jets (+6) over MIAMI: There is always a surprise game in Week 17. I have a feeling that this might be the one. The Jets can get to 8-8 and help save Rex Ryan's job and in the process knock the Dolphins out of the playoffs. Miami might win this game, but it will come down to the wire.

Detroit (+3) over MINNESOTA: What a disappointment the Lions were this season. I had them in the playoffs before the year, but they have lost three games in a row after they were sitting in good shape at 7-5. This should be Jim Schwartz's last game as head coach.

Green Bay (PICK) over CHICAGO: Aaron Rodgers will be back for this game, and this sets up a huge storyline for this game. One game for the NFC North title, and it involves the Packers and the Bears. You can't get a better scenario than that one.

Buffalo (+9) over NEW ENGLAND: I think the Pats will win the game, but I think it will be closer than people think. Look for the Bills to hang around for awhile in this one.

Tampa Bay (+13) over NEW ORLEANS: This game has some potential as a stunner. Stranger things have happened in the final week of the season in the past. The Saints will win, but I think it will be closer than expected.

ARIZONA (+2) over San Francisco: When this game kicks off, Arizona will be playing with their playoff hopes still alive. Usually a team fighting for the playoffs will outplay a team that is already in the playoffs. Seeding doesn't really matter to those teams that are already in the playoffs.

SAN DIEGO (-7) over Kansas City: The Chiefs are already locked in to the #5 seed, so there is a good chance that they will not play many of their key players. I have a feeling the Chargers are going to find their way into the playoffs. Look for a big win by San Diego at home.

SEATTLE (-9) over St. Louis: After last week's stunning home loss to Arizona, the Seahawks need to win this game to lock up the #1 seed in the NFC. I think they will be focused and ready to go for this game, and they will take care of business at home over the Rams.

Philly (-4) over DALLAS: Tony Romo will probably miss this game because of a back injury which means that Kyle Orton will get the start in his place. The Cowboys season rests on the right arm of Kyle Orton. How amazing is that? Broncos fans will tell you that Kyle Orton is not the QB running your franchise, but for one game Orton could get the job done. I just think that the Eagles are just the better team right now, and their offense should find a way to put up enough points to hold off the Cowboys.

Denver (-10) over OAKLAND: Denver needs to win this game to secure the #1 seed in the AFC. The Pats will be playing at the same time, so the Broncos can't rest anyone and to play this to the end. Terrelle Pryor gets the start for the Raiders, and this game will be back and forth for a while, but look for Peyton Manning and the Broncos to push the pedal to the medal when they have to and get the job done in the end.

Final Score: Broncos-38 Raiders-24

Broncos Roll Past Texans, Clinch AFC West Crown

The Broncos finally were able to lock up the AFC West on Sunday with a 37-13 thumping of the Houston Texans. That result coupled with a Kansas City loss to Indy gave the Broncos the division and at least a first round bye. Denver still needs to win this week to clinch homefield advantage throughout. Either way, the Broncos will get a bye week at least and host at least one playoff game in two weeks. As for Sunday's game, the Broncos dominated most of the first half and built a 16-6 lead at halftime. The Broncos offense struggled coming out of the half and Houston cut the lead to 16-13 late in the third quarter. Denver and Peyton Manning then put the game away in the final quarter. Three touchdown passes later, Manning gets the record for touchdown passes in the regular season and the Broncos roll to the division title. At 12-3, Denver now is one win away from locking up homefield advantage for the second straight year. Denver also clinched their third straight AFC West title. Here are my thoughts and observations on the game....

1) Kudos to Peyton Manning for throwing 4 touchdowns and setting the record for TD passes in a season with 51. It was very cool to see Manning go all out to get the record with the Broncos up 30-13 late in the game. Manning was pretty much on fire the whole game with the exception of the third quarter. He finished 32-51 for 400 yards with 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. He also exceeded 5,000 yards for the season. Manning was spreading the ball around all day long. To watch Manning every week is just a pleasure every week. I know I say it a lot, but it is simply amazing to watch him run this offense every game.

2) Knowshon Moreno had another solid game and he finished 11 carries for 76 yards. He has eclipsed over 1,000 yards for the season, and he has been one of the most valuable players on this offense besides Manning. Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas once again picked up the slack with Wes Welker out again. Decker finished with 10 catches for 131 yards and 2 touchdowns and Thomas added 8 receptions for 123 yards and 1 touchdown.

3) The Broncos completely dominated the first half, but they kept settling for field goals. It was key that they got a field goal near the end of the half to make it 16-6 instead of 13-6 at halftime.

4) The real bummer of this game was the fact that Denver lost Von Miller for the year with an ACL injury. He was hurt early in the first quarter, and you could tell it was bad when he crumpled to the field holding his knee like he just got shot. On Monday it was confirmed that he tore his ACL and will be out for the season. I'll talk more about his impact when I preview the Broncos playoff run, and the ramifications going forward in the playoffs.

5) The Broncos defense was able to hold up well and they played really well in the second half. I know it was against Matt Schaub, who was awful by the way, but the defense really rallied together in the second half. The key sequences were the following: With Denver up 16-13, the Texans were driving in Denver territory, but the Broncos got back-to-back sacks on Schaub to stifle the drive. Danny Trevathan got the first one, and Robert Ayers got the second one to end that drive. Then, on the next drive and on the second play of the 4th quarter, Mike Adams picked off Schaub to give the Broncos the ball deep in Houston territory. It was one of the biggest plays the Broncos defense has made in weeks. It set up a Manning to Eric Decker 10 yard touchdown pass to give the Broncos a 23-13 lead and put the Texans away. 

6) Manning's third touchdown pass of the game and his 50th of the season was a floater to Decker in the corner of the end zone. It was a great play, and it almost seemed like Manning just floated it up there and was the only one who knew where it was going to land. I guess when you are that good, then passes like that go your way. His 51st TD pass and final of the game to Julius Thomas was a great throw on a go route in which Thomas was matched up on a linebacker and as we have seen all year those matchups just don't work well for the defense.

7) The Broncos clinched the AFC West for the third straight season. After making the playoffs from 2003-2005, the Broncos missed the playoffs for five straight years from 2006-2010. Now, they are in the playoffs for the third year in a row. Also, this was the first time Denver won the AFC West title three years in a row. At 12-3, the Broncos need to beat Oakland in Week 17 to clinch homefield advantage for the playoffs. They need to play all their starters because the Pats are playing the Bills at the same time, and if the Pats win and Denver loses, then the Broncos would be the #2 seed and New England would get the #1 seed. In any event, the Broncos will have at least a bye and will host a playoff game on Divisional weekend. If the NFL playoff scheduling format remains the same, then look for Denver to host a playoff game on Saturday night January 11th at 8:00pm EST.