Chiefs-Raiders TNF Pick!

OAKLAND (+8) over Kansas City: All of the sudden the Chiefs are the team to beat in the AFC West. After starting 0-2, they are now 7-3 and tied with Denver for 1st place. With a showdown between the Broncos and Chiefs next week in Arrowhead looming, could KC be looking ahead and not focusing on the Raiders? Oakland is 0-10, and I doubt that they will go 0-16, so at some point they have to win a game. Why not shock the world and pull the upset on the Chiefs on Thursday Night Football? I'm taking the Raiders strictly because I need KC to lose, so this pick has no real merit other than the Bronco fan in me hoping the Chiefs stub their toe here.

Broncos Get Blasted by Rams 22-7

Denver’s loss on Sunday at the hands of the 3-6 Rams may have been the low point of the Peyton Manning Era in Denver. When Denver got smoked by Seattle in the Super Bowl, at least it was the Super Bowl, and they got crushed by a really good team. Sunday’s loss was a real eye-opener for numerous reasons. The Broncos got completely outplayed from the get-go, and their road woes continued. I had a sneaky suspicion that the Broncos were in trouble because they haven’t started well on the road all year long. Also, their offensive line continues to be a problem, and that will hurt any team when they hit the road. Sunday’s loss was also brutal because Denver came away banged up. Montee Ball hurt his groin and he is out indefinitely, Emmanuel Sanders suffered a concussion, and Julius Thomas hurt his ankle. It was a bad day to say the least for the Broncos, and it creates some doubt going forward.

Here are my thoughts and observations from the game…

1)    The Broncos again got off to a slow start on offense, and the next thing you knew they were down 13-0. Shaun Hill’s bomb to Kenny Britt gave the Rams the 10-0 lead, and you just knew that this was going to be trouble for Denver.

2)    The Broncos and John Fox can say what they want about the confidence in rookie kicker Brandon McManus but when you go for it on 4^th and 5 in the 1^st quarter that to me tells the story. They have no confidence in McManus! The worst part is that at least with Matt Prater once you got inside the other team’s 40, you were in field goal range. The Broncos 4^th down play failed, and the Rams capitalized on the next play to make it 10-0.

3)    I’m not going to kill the Denver defense for giving up over 100 yards to Tre Mason and giving up 22 points to Shaun Hill. The defense was put into an awful spot time after time during the game. They forced the Rams to kick 5 field goals, and they were able to get some key stops when they needed it. Don’t hang this loss on the defense.

4)    The blame for this loss goes on the coaching staff and the offense. First, our offensive line is still a mess. We can’t run the ball, and now they have problems picking up blitzes and stunts on critical downs. Also, Adam Gase completely abandoned the running game right from the start. I know Denver was down early, but at least try to keep the defense honest. I know he lost some of his weapons due to injury, but Peyton Manning wasn’t sharp at all on Sunday. He did have a sweet touchdown pass to Emmanuel Sanders for 42 yards to cut the lead to 13-7 in the second quarter, but he threw two awful interceptions into coverage in the second half. He now has 6 interceptions in his last 3 games. That could be very alarming, but all three of those games were on the road. He missed an open Demaryius Thomas on a deep post that would have given Denver a 14-13 lead in the 3^rd quarter. He overthrew him and Thomas would have walked into the endzone if it is a good throw. Manning needs to get back on track a little here.

5)    John Fox’s decision to not call timeouts at the end of the half and give Manning a chance to get the ball back was awful. Even Manning was shaking his head on the sideline. You have to wonder about Fox’s game management at times. It really makes you wonder if you can trust him in these big games. With 2:00 minutes left in the half, Denver had all three timeouts. They stop the Rams on 1st down on a short pass for no gain. On 2^nd down, with 1:16 to play in the half, the Rams run the ball up the middle for a gain of six. Call timeout there! Make them run a play to get the first down on 3^rd down. Fox elects not to do that for some reason, and the Rams let the clock run down and then run the ball on 3^rd down and then Denver finally takes a timeout with 30 seconds left. There wasn’t enough time after the punt and the Broncos just knelt down to end the half. Awful, awful job by Fox and his use of timeouts in that situation.

6)    It was the lowest points scored by the Broncos in the Peyton Manning Era, and it was definitely the low point for them as a franchise in the last three years. It makes you nervous because this team still has 3 really tough road games left on the schedule: at KC, at SD, and at Cincy. Now, they are tied at 7-3 with KC atop the AFC West. This is going to be a dogfight just to win the division. Their offense is not even close to last year, their running game is terrible, their offensive line is a mess, and they are very inconsistent. Throw in the fact that they have no threat in the return game, and their kicker has no confidence from the coaching staff. It is safe to say that there is a lot to be worried about in Denver right now. The Broncos are at a crossroads, and they didn’t face this type of adversity all year last year. After 10 games this year, adversity has hit them square in the face.

7)    With all that said, every team faces tough times during the season. Last year, the Broncos didn’t really have that, but this year they do. As a fan, you can’t think too far ahead. Don’t worry about homefield advantage, seeding, and division titles. Just worry about winning the next game. For the Broncos, that is this Sunday at home against a dangerous Miami Dolphins team. This will not be an easy game at all-especially with the injuries and uncertain statuses of Julius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. All week you are going to hear how Denver is fading. All week you will hear about the decline of Peyton Manning and all the other flaws that this team has. That doesn’t mean anything as long as they go out and win at home over the Dolphins on Sunday. Get to 8-3 and worry about the next game. That has to be the mindset.

NFL Week 11 Picks!

We are at the midway point of November, and now it is time to start figuring out the potential playoff contenders in the AFC and NFC. We can't use the Yahoo Playoff Generator just yet. That is a tradition to start after Thanksgiving weekend, but we can start to see the playoff picture come into focus a little more. In the AFC, New England, Denver, and Indy are leading their divisions, and there is a log jam in the AFC North with four teams above .500. Miami(6-4), KC(6-3), and San Diego(5-4) remain in the Wild Card hunt as well. Buffalo is teetering at 5-5, and Houston is there as well but at 4-5. You have to take at least 2 teams from the North (Pittsburgh, Cincy, Baltimore or Cleveland), and that leaves the Fish, Chiefs, Chargers, and the other two teams from the North fighting for one spot. It will definitely be fun the last few weeks in the AFC. In the NFC, it is more cut and dry. The Eagles and Cowboys are battling for the NFC East. Someone is going to win the crappy NFC South (Probably the 4-5 Saints), and it looks like it is down to Green Bay and Detroit in the North. In the West, the Cardinals are the surprise leader at 8-1, but they just lost Carson Palmer for the year. Seattle at 6-3, and San Francisco at 5-4 are right there. Whoever loses the races for the division in the North and the East will have to contend with the 49ers and the Seahawks for the last two spots. There will be at least 2 good, marquee teams on the outside looking in come January in the NFC. Onto the picks in Week 11..

Last Week's Record: 6-7
Overall Record: 73-68-6
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

CLEVELAND (-3) over Houston: Ryan Mallet vs. Brian Hoyer in a key AFC matchup in Week 11. Somewhere, Josh McDaniels is smiling like a proud father. I’m not sold on the Browns, but I like them this week to get to 7-3.

CHICAGO (-3) over Minnesota: How bad have the Bears been the last few weeks? Every Denver fan is nodding at how the rest of the NFL is now jumping off the Jay Cutler bandwagon. You have to think the Bears will get the win at home this week because if they don’t, Marc Trestman might be gone by Monday.

GREEN BAY (-4) over Philly: Tough game to call. I think I will go with the Packers at home mainly because I really can’t trust Mark Sanchez just yet.

Seattle (+3) over KANSAS CITY: I saw a lot of people picking the Chiefs at home this week, but I don’t see it. This game will play out with Russell Wilson with the ball in his hands and the game on the line. I think he will pull it out at the end.

CAROLINA (+1) over Atlanta: Welcome to the crappy NFC South! A Panthers win gets them to 4-6-1 and back in the race, while a Falcons win gets them to 4-6 and in the thick of the race. What a shitty division.

Cincy (+7) over NEW ORLEANS: Usually, the Saints are a lock to cover at home, but things are different for the 4-5 Saints this year. I think they will find a way to win, but Cincy will give them everything they can.

Tampa Bay (+7) over WASHINGTON: There is no way the Redskins should be favored by a touchdown over anyone. The Bucs are bad, but they have played very feisty the last month for Lovie Smith.

San Francisco (-3) over NY GIANTS: How can you take the Giants at home? Watch out for the Niners. Last week's OT win over the Saints got them to 5-4, and they could get going as a result. Too much Colin Kaepernick for a Giants defense that gives up way too many big plays.

SAN DIEGO (-8) over Oakland: I can't see the Chargers losing four straight after starting 5-1. They will get going this week at home over the winless Raiders. This game should be over early.

Detroit (+2) over ARIZONA: Drew Stanton will fill in admirably for Carson Palmer, but there is no way he is taking this team to the Super Bowl. Their 8-1 start might help them get into the playoffs even if they stumble down the stretch, but this week will be a tough one for them at home. Look for the Lions to continue their winning ways with another wild win late.

New England (+3) over INDY: Great Sunday Night Football game on NBC. Brady-Luck in an AFC showdown. I was picking the Colts all week, but I have a feeling that the Pats will be up to the task in this game. This seems close either way, but look for New England to thwart Luck late in the game to win it.

Pittsburgh (-5) over TENNESSEE: Awful Monday Night Football game on ESPN. The Titans are just terrible, and now they host the Steelers. The Steelers have this habit of playing shitty against crummy teams and losing. They are 6-4 this year, and two of their losses were to the Bucs and the Jets. I think Mike Tomlin sends that message to his team loud and clear this week. Look for the Steelers to take care of their business on the road over the Titans.

ST. LOUIS (+9.5) over Denver: The Broncos have some real issues on their offensive line. They shuffled it around last week in Oakland. They moved Louis Vasquez to RT, Manny Ramirez to RG, and inserted Will Montgomery to C. It was a decent upgrade, but their line is still not playing to the level that it did last year. Was Zane Beadles that big of a difference for us last year? Anyway, they will be tested by Robert Quinn and Aaron Donald and that young defense in St. Louis. The Broncos better be ready up front to protect Peyton Manning. Denver has gotten off to really slow starts in most of their road games this year. I'll give their offense a pass for the slow start in Seattle and New England, but at the Jets and at the Raiders, the offense looked shaky, sluggish, and disjointed at times. It would be nice to see them getting off to a real fast start this week, put up some points early, and let the defense go to work on Shaun Hill. I never have a good feel for the Broncos when they play a weak team on the road, and this game is no exception-especially with the early kickoff.

Final Score: Rams-26 Broncos-24

Dolphins-Bills TNF Pick

MIAMI (-5) over Buffalo: This could be an AFC Wild Card Elimination game on Thursday Night Football. Both teams come into the game at 5-4, and in the crowded AFC playoff picture the difference between 6-4 and 5-5 could be very big. I'll take the Fish at home to win and get themselves into good position in the fight for the playoffs.

Broncos Surge Past Raiders 41-17 in the Black Hole

The Broncos did what they were supposed to do on Sunday: Blow out a team that was winless. It took some time to get going but Denver did what they had to do and took care of the Raiders rather easily 41-17. It didn’t start that way. The Raiders looked energized and ready to pull the upset, while Denver looked sluggish, sloppy, and unmotivated. After being down 10-6 in the second quarter, the Broncos rallied for five straight touchdowns to take a commanding 41-10 lead. It was a good win because the Broncos did what they had to do, but it continues to show that this team is not bullet proof at all. Here are my thoughts and observations about the game…

1)    What an awful start to this game by the Broncos. Peyton Manning gets picked on the second play of the game. That led to a Raiders field goal. Justin Tuck then picked off Manning in the second quarter and that led to a Raiders touchdown and the 10-6 lead. For most of the first half, the Raiders were playing better. They were knocking down Manning’s passes, and they held the Broncos to only two field goals. It really looked like the Raiders were going to possibly pull off the upset.

2)    The game changed on two plays. First, Bradley Roby’s interception of Derek Carr late in the first half set the Broncos up with good field position down 10-6. The second play was a 3^rd and 8 pass from Manning to C.J. Anderson. Anderson took the pass that was destined for a 1 yard gain, broke three tackles, and weaved his way for a 51 yard touchdown. It was the turning point in the game, and one of the biggest plays of the season for the Broncos this year. Anderson had a big day with 90 yards on 13 carries as well.

3)    From there, the Broncos took over. Another key moment was the Broncos got the ball back right before the half and in four plays Manning hits Emmanuel Sanders for a 32 yard touchdown down the sideline to make it 20-10. The whole game completely changed in just a matter of minutes. Finally, the Broncos offense was alive.

4)    The second half was all Broncos. Their defense completely shut down the Raiders offense and Carr. They picked off Carr one more time (T.J. Ward), and the highlight was when Carr was under pressure and he threw it to his own lineman, who caught the ball then proceeded to fumble it. The Broncos recovered deep in Raider territory. That play just summed up the second half of this game.

5)    Four plays later, Manning hit Julius Thomas on a sweet slant/pick play for a 10 yard touchdown and a 27-10 lead.

6)    Manning then hit Thomas again on a play-action fake that caught Charles Woodson out of positions and the play resulted in a 32 yard touchdown on a 4^th and 1 in the 3^rd quarter. It was a sweet play and gave Denver a 34-10.

7)    The next series saw Manning hit Sanders on a really nice post play for a 15 yard touchdown and a 41-10 lead as the 3^rd quarter closed. It was really nice to see Denver turn up the heat on both sides of the ball, and the Broncos offense took advantage and put the game away for good.

8)    Once again, the offense got off to a  sluggish start on the road. This has been a concern as of late-especially against bad teams like the Jets and Raiders. The offensive line was reshuffled this week with Manny Ramirez going to guard, Louis Vasquez going to tackle, and Will Montgomery getting his first start at center. The line struggled early on and it hasn't been consistent all year and the run game has been very suspect.

9)    This  defense is good enough to smother a young QB and that is what they did on Sunday against Derek Carr. I have a lot of confidence in this defense against weaker offenses, and Sunday proved it once again. Game balls on defense have to go to DeMarcus Ware and Von Miller once again, and players like Brandon Marshall, T.J. Ward, and Bradley Roby routinely made plays throughout the game.

10) Peyton Manning put away a rough start to the game and finished with 31-44 for 340 yards and 5 touchdowns in about three quarters worth of play. Manning is always in this column every week for his stellar play. I liked the distribution to the receivers. Demaryius Thomas continues to light it up with 11 catch 108 yard game. Julius Thomas had 6 receptions for 63 yards and 2 touchdowns, and Emmanuel Sanders had 5 catches for 67 yards and 2 touchdowns.

11) At 7-2, Broncos did what they had to do and now finish the three game road trip at St. Louis on Sunday.

Broncos At the Halfway Point and Week 10 Picks!

Here is what I do know about the Broncos after eight games of the 2014 season: This isn't 2013. I have said that earlier this season, and it still holds true. Here is what we know so far about the Broncos as they hit the halfway mark of the year at 6-2:

1) Peyton Manning is still the man. He is on pace for 5,000 yards and 48 touchdowns. If the Broncos are going to win the Super Bowl this year, it will all be on Manning's shoulders once again.

2) The Broncos running game is just not as consistent as it was last year or near the level it should be at. Ronnie Hillman has provided a spark as of late but he only has 365 yards and 3 touchdowns on the year. Montee Ball has been injured the last month, but he was really struggling before he got hurt.

3) Cutting Matt Prater and sticking with Brandon McManus as our kicker was a bad decision. McManus is only 6 of 9 on field goals this year, and he hasn't been faced with a pressure kick just yet. It will doom us in the end if he continues to be inconsistent.

4) Demaryius Thomas is still a beast, and one of the biggest threats in all of the NFL. He is on pace for 90 catches and 1,700 yards with 12 touchdowns. Emmanuel Sanders has been a great free-agent pickup and he is on pace for over 90 receptions and over 1,500 yards with 8 touchdowns. Julius Thomas is still a huge weapon in the redzone and he already has 10 touchdowns. Wes Welker looks like a player who has seen his better days. He only has 22 catches for 212 yards so far this year. Our offense is still really good and the Broncos are averaging over 29 points per game on offense. This team will score and move the ball, but you worry about it on the road.

5) We know that the defense is a lot better. DeMarcus Ware has been really good and he has 8 sacks on the year so far. T.J. Ward has also made his presence felt this year, and Aqib Talib has been really solid at corner for the Broncos too. Chris Harris has been stellar on the other corner, and rookie Bradley Roby has played really well in the nickel. Von Miller has returned to form and he already has 9 sacks on the year. You have to give credit to guys like Terrence Knighton, Derek Wolfe, Sylvester Williams, and Malik Jackson for being so stout against the run this year. The Broncos run defense has been really solid all year long. The defense got a boost from Brandon Marshall stepping in at linebacker so far as well. Overall, the defense is better, but you still have to wonder about them in a big spot, against a good offense, and a good QB. Look what Tom Brady did to them last week.

6) We know the Broncos are one of the best teams in the AFC and a legitimate Super Bowl contender, but can they step up to the plate in a big game. That is the question that will be on their minds as they enter the second half of the season and the playoffs. They can do it when it counts? We have a whole second half of the year to find out.

On to the picks for Week 10...

Last Week's Record: 9-3-1
Overall Record: 67-61-6
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

Jacksonville (+7) over Dallas (In London): I have a feeling this game will be close. I just don't trust the whole Tony Romo/Back situation. Look for a surprisingly close game in London.

Miami (+3) over DETROIT: Do you trust the Lions at home? The Lions seem more dangerous on the road. It's like they don't play the same way at home as they do on the road. You have to give credit for the Dolphins at 5-3 and the way that they whipped the Chargers last week. I'm taking the Fish as an underdog here.

Kansas City (-1) over BUFFALO: You have to go with the better team here, and the Chiefs are simply better than the Bills at this point. Fun game in the AFC though with both teams at 5-3.

NEW ORLEANS (-4) over San Francisco: I might get burned by this, but look for the Saints to at least win this game by a touchdown. It should be a really good game and with both teams at 4-4 it is a crucial game-especially for the Niners. I didn't think the 49ers would make the playoffs at the beginning of the year, and I'm sticking with that prediction all the way through. 

BALTIMORE (-7) over Tennessee: I can't see the Ravens laying an egg here at home. At 5-4, they have lost two straight, so I expect their A game in this one.

NY JETS (+5) over Pittsburgh: Weird game to me. I full expect a Steeler win, but for some reason I think the Jets cover. By the way, if you're a Jet fan, how bad will it be if Mark Sanchez plays well the rest of the year, and takes the Eagles to the playoffs? Talk about adding more salt to the wound.

Atlanta (-2) over TAMPA BAY: A pretty bad game in the NFC South, but a Falcons win here keeps them alive to somehow win this crappy division. 

St.Louis (+7) over ARIZONA: Aren't the Cardinals due for a clunker? It seems like the Rams always seem to play better when they are facing a really good team-especially in their own division. Look for the Cards to win, but I think this one is close.

SEATTLE (-7) over NY Giants: There is no way a banged up Giants team at 3-5 is getting on a plane, flying over 3,000 miles, and pulling an upset of the defending Super Bowl champs on Sunday in their building. I just can't see it. This might be the lock of the week.

GREEN BAY (-7) over Chicago: Jay Cutler on road in a night game. That might be all you need to know if you want to takes the Packers. There is also no way the Packers are losing two in a row.

Carolina (+7) over PHILLY: How can you take Philly with Sanchez coming in to start? I'm not saying it won't work out, but I have to wait and see before I jump on their bandwagon. 


OAKLAND (+11) over Denver: Here is why this game is dangerous: Although Oakland is 0-8, they have played close games against San Diego, New England, and Seattle this year. It would not surprise me at all if the Raiders play well in this game. It is pretty hard for a team to lose nine straight games to start the year. This game has some serious upset potential to it. I hope I'm wrong.

Final Score: Raiders-28 Broncos-27

Cincy-Cleveland TNF Pick!

CINCY (-6) over Cleveland: A fun game on Thursday Night Football as the surprising Browns (5-3) head to Cincy to take on the Bengals (5-2-1) in a showdown in the AFC North. It is being billed as the Battle of Ohio and for good reason. When was the last time a game between these two teams meant something at this point of the season? I think we have to go back to the 80s with Sam Whyce and Marty Schottenheimer at the helm of these two franchises. I like the story of the Browns so far, but this seems like a tall order on the road at Cincy on a short week. Take the Bengals at home to cover the spread. This has all the makings of a blowout.