AFC EAST
1) New England Patriots (11-5)
What I Like: What is not to like about the Pats? As long as Tom Brady is at quarterback, and Bill Belichick is coaching the team, then the Patriots will always be pegged as winners of the AFC East. They signed Albert Haynesworth and Chad Ochocinco, which are setting up as typical Belichick-type revival projects. They also stole Shaun Ellis away from the Jets. No matter who they bring in, each guy on that roster buys into the Patriot Way, and the team chugs along like a damn machine. The Pats haven't won a playoff game since the 2007 AFC Championship. That has fueled them all offseason, and they will take it out on the rest of league come September.
What I Don't Like: The Patriots are always lauded for compiling all these draft picks in each round, but this year they could have really used these picks to move up and grab themselves a really dynamic pass rusher or wide receiver. They didn't do that, and I don't think that they really separated themselves that much from the Jets or other teams in the AFC.
Prediction: 11-5 and winners of the AFC East
2) New York Jets (8-8)
What I Like: Rex Ryan talks too much, but you have to give him credit because he backs it up. He has totally changed the culture in that building, players love to play for him, but he really makes his money by his defensive strategies. He really does a great job game-planning his defense in big games. He has become a big-time coach in the NFL. Also, the Jets had to resign Santonio Holmes, and they took care of that.
What I Don't Like: How did the Jets get better this offseason? Did they gain a lot of ground on the Patriots? The answer to those questions is no. They lost Braylon Edwards and Jerricho Cotchery and added Plaxico Burress (The last two years he spent in jail) and Derrick Mason (He's like 48 years old.) Brad Smith bolted to go to Buffalo, and the Jets lost Shaun Ellis to the rival Patriots. Once the Jets put all their eggs in the Nnamdi Asomugha basket, and it didn't work out, then the Jets offseason took a major hit. They still don't have a pass rush, and are relying on many guys that are unproven on a team that is supposed to be Super Bowl bound. I don't see it. Also, the Jets caught so many breaks the last two years, and this year I think the luck runs out.
Prediction: 8-8 and second in the AFC East
3) Miami Dolphins (7-9)
What I Like: The Reggie Bush move could give them some explosiveness to their inept offense. Despite what people think, Tony Sparano is a good coach. They were 7-6 last year until they fell apart and finished 7-9. The Fish might not be as far off as you would think.
What I Don't Like: How do you go with Chad Henne and Matt Moore at quarterback and miss out on pulling the trigger on Kyle Orton? How did you improve your chances of winning in 2011. The Dolphins really dropped the ball by not addressing their QB situation, and that is going to kill them this year. Henne doesn't look like he has the goods, and it will probably cost him and maybe his coach their jobs.
Prediction: 7-9 and third in the AFC East
4) Buffalo Bills (6-10)
What I Like: Adding Marcel Dareus in the draft at number two overall was a great move for them. They stole Brad Smith away from the Jets, and Stevie Johnson is the best receiver that no one has heard of. They were in pretty much every game last year, and they were a lot better then their 4-12 record would indicate. Chan Gailey did a really nice job with their offense last year.
What I Don't Like: They are stuck in a division with two powerhouses like the Jets and the Pats. The Bills could have been a sleeper pick if they upgraded their QB position, but the fact that they are going with Ryan Fitzpatrick just scares me. I know he played well last year, but he isn't the long-term answer for that franchise.
Prediction: 6-10 and last in the AFC East
AFC NORTH
1) Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6)
What I Like: The Steelers are the Steelers, and they will just reload for another run this year. Mike Tomlin is a fantastic head coach, and Ben Roethlisberger is simply amazing. As long as Big Ben is not getting in trouble, the Steelers will be very difficult to beat. They resigned their main guys (Ike Taylor and Lamar Woodley) and they will use the fact that they lost the Super Bowl as their main motivation to get them back.
What I Don't Like: The last time Pittsburgh went to the Super Bowl in 2008, they followed it up by missing the playoffs in 2009. In 2006, they missed the playoffs after winning the Super Bowl in 2005. I'm going to be a little nervous about the Steelers after they get to the Super Bowl. They could be in for another Super Bowl hangover.
Prediction: 10-6 and winners of the AFC North
2) Baltimore Ravens (8-8)
What I Like: You have to like the program that the Ravens have developed. Solid coaching, solid veteran leadership, and they build through the draft and develop their own players. As long as Ray Lewis is around, you know their defense is going to be a force. Ray Rice is one of the best backs in the league, and they are just an overall solid organization that is a contender every year.
What I Don't Like: Joe Flacco has to win a Super Bowl for me to totally buy into him as a legitimate franchise QB. Plus, the Ravens have made the playoffs the last three years, but in the NFL sometimes the law of averages just catches up to a team. Injuries, bad breaks, a couple of close losses and a team has a down year. The Ravens look like they are headed for one of those down years.
Prediction: 8-8 and second in the AFC North
3) Cleveland Browns (7-9)
What I Like: I like the fact that they told everyone that Colt McCoy is their guy at QB. They removed all doubt. McCoy with Peyton Hillis could have a little bit of a cool factor on team that hasn't been very sexy in a long, long time. Mike Holmgren looks like he actually has a plan, and new coach Pat Shurmur will get a chance to build up this team. They were actually in play as one of the sleeper teams of 2011.
What I Don't Like: They did a lot of trading down in the draft, and I don't think they added a real big-time playmaker on offense. I'm always nervous about first year head coaches, and I wonder if McCoy can make it through an entire season healthy. They are so far away from the Ravens and Steelers, and it will take them a lot of catch up.
Prediction: 7-9 and third in the AFC North
4) Cincinnati Bengals (4-12)
What I Like: At least they nabbed the best playmaker in the entire draft in A.J. Green. Getting rid of Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens was the right move for the organization. They fell in love with Andy Dalton, and they are going to go with him, so at least they have a plan and vision for the future.
What I Don't Like: You know it's bad when your franchise QB says that he would rather retire then play another down for the team. Whether Carson Palmer ever comes back or not, the Bengals are going to struggle with Andy Dalton at the helm this year. They are the bottom feeders in a very tough division, and I would be shocked if they didn't lost double digit games this season.
Prediction: 4-12 and last in the AFC North
AFC SOUTH
1) Houston Texans (10-6)
What I Like: The Texans have been knocking on the door the past few years, and they finally breakthrough this year. Wade Phillips should be able to turn that defense around, and adding Johnathan Joseph and Daniel Manning to the secondary will help. The Texans offense has been stellar the last few years, and the improvement of the defense should put the Texans in the playoffs for the first time in franchise history.
What I Don't Like: Haven't we been here before? It seems like every offseason the Texans are ready to make the jump to the playoffs, and they disappoint everytime. Plus, can they really get by the Colts? They haven't been able to do it yet, and everyone will still doubt them until they do it.
Prediction: 10-6 and winners of the AFC South
2) Indianapolis Colts (10-6)
What I Like: They resigned Joseph Addai, and as long as Peyton Manning is the quarterback, then you can pencil them in for the playoffs and a division title. They get guys like Dallas Clark back healthy, and that should really help them on offense. They rebuilt their offensive line through the draft, and they still have the best pass rushing combination in the league. Did I mention that Peyton Manning is their QB?
What I Don't Like: Two things worry me about the Colts: First, Manning's neck injury. There is a good chance he is going to miss the whole preseason, and right now the word is that the Colts have no idea if he will be ready for the start of the season. If he is out any significant time, the Colts are screwed. Manning's neck injury is going to be the biggest storyline of this Colts season early on. Secondly, Jim Caldwell stinks as an NFL head coach. I'm sorry watch the Super Bowl loss to the Saints and last year's playoff loss to the Jets. Caldwell is lost and that worries me.
Prediction: 10-6 and a wild card berth in the AFC South
3) Tennessee Titans (7-9)
What I Like: The Matt Hasselbeck move was a nice pickup for them. He will give them a chance to win this year as they groom Jake Locker for the future. Chris Johnson is also the most explosive player in the league. Mike Munchak is a new head coach, but he has been with that team for a long time and he knows that team and the locker room. That could translate to some surprising success early on in the season. Remember, they were 5-2 last year before collapsing and finishing 6-10. They are not that far off.
What I Don't Like: I worry that Hasselbeck won't stay healthy, and then Locker is thrown into the fire too early. Plus, Chris Johnson's holdout has the potential to derail any kind of momentum and chemistry. Being in the same division as the Colts every year doesn't help either. They look like they are a year away.
Prediction: 7-9 and third in the AFC South
4) Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11)
What I Like: They are always competitive, and they are always in the playoff hunt come December. Maurice Jones-Drew is a gamebreaker, and maybe they hit it with Blaine Gabbert. If Jack Del Rio was in another market, he would get more publicity for being a good coach. He seems to get a lot out of his team year in and year out.
What I Don't Like: I don't like how the David Garrard-Blaine Gabbert situation is going to play out. I feel like the Jags might stay with Garrard too long, and then the next thing you know they turn it over to Gabbert when the team is like 3-9 or something like that. It can't be a good thing either when the owner basically says that Del Rio's gone if they don't make the playoffs. I don't have a good feeling about the 2011 Jags.
Prediction: 5-11 and last in the AFC South
AFC WEST
1) San Diego Chargers (12-4)
What I Like: As much as I want to hate Philip Rivers, I just respect him too much. As long as Rivers is the quarterback for San Diego, they will own this division. The Chargers were due for a down year last year, and 9-7 and missing the playoffs is a down year. They finished that way because their special teams was probably the worst special teams unit in the history of the NFL, and it cost them games. That won't happen again this year, and look for the Chargers to be hungry and bounce back this season.
What I Don't Like: How could anyone trust Norv Turner as a head coach? The Chargers always start off slow, and they open with some tough games early on (at NE, KC, at Jets, at KC, GB, Oak, at Chi just to name a few). They proved that you can't always recover from 2-4 starts and make the playoffs. As long as Norv is their head coach, you can't totally put your faith in them.
Prediction: 12-4 and winners of the AFC West
2) Oakland Raiders (9-7)
What I Like: The Raiders have built themselves a nice little core with McFadden, Ford, Murphy, Houston, Seymour, Wimbley, McClain, and Routt. They went 6-0 in the division last year, and they can line up with anyone on their schedule. Hue Jackson brings some real enthusiasm to the team, and he was with them last year, so he knows that team and that locker room as well. The Raiders haven't made the playoffs since 2002, and as much as it pains me to say it, but they are due to return this year. You have to think outside the box sometimes.
What I Don't Like: Jason Campbell might be the only thing that holds them back this year. He is just an average starter in the NFL, and it makes me nervous to pick a playoff team with Campbell as the QB. If the Raiders don't make the playoffs, then Campbell is probably the reason. Also, losing Zach Miller and Robert Gallery to free agency hurts. Plus, what team fires their head coach after their best season in eight years? Only the Raiders.
Prediction: 9-7 and a wild card berth
3) Kansas City Chiefs (7-9)
What I Like: They have a nice nucleus with Cassel, Charles, Moeaki, and Bowe on offense. They have Berry, Dorsey, Johnson, Hali and Flowers as their core on defense. They have drafted well and built a nice little squad that totally surprised everyone and won the division last year. They finally brought back the homefield advantage to Arrowhead Stadium. They are setup to be a good team for the future.
What I Don't Like: I'm not a Todd Haley fan at all despite what he did last year. They rode an easy schedule, some surprising wins, and a disappointing season by the Chargers to win the West last year. Don't expect the same this year. Higher expectations will cut them down. Their schedule is really tough (at Indy, at NE, Pittsburgh, at Chi, at Jets, GB) in addition to their divisional games, which are never easy. They just have the look of the classic letdown team of 2011.
Prediction: 7-9 and third in the AFC West.
4) Denver Broncos (6-10)
*I will have a longer and more in depth preview of the Broncos season after all the preseason games are completed*
What I Like: I like John Fox and the direction he is setting with this team. I feel good that the team is in Fox's hands, and I have no doubt that he will turn the franchise around. I like the improvements the Broncos made on defense. Pairing up Von Miller with the returning Elvis Dumervil could be a lethal pass rushing combination. I like the influx of youth on their defense as well. They are looking for guys like Rahim Moore and Nate Irving to step up and play big roles in their new 4-3 scheme. I like the one-two punch of Knowshon Moreno and Willis McGahee in the backfield, and it will be nice to see the Broncos committed to the running game again after being a pass-happy team the last two years.
What I Don't Like: Quite simply the Kyle Orton Era continues. How does Orton go from being traded to Miami to the outright starter in a week? The Broncos failure to move on from the Orton Era is going to kill them this season. I know he looks great in practice, and I know he is more polished than Tim Tebow right now, but we have seen this before, and where did it get the Broncos? It got them nowhere, and I feel this was the perfect year to start Tebow. The Broncos are winning the Super Bowl this year, so why not start Tebow and see what you have for the future at the most important position. Unforunately, we are stuck with Orton and his lack of ability in the red zone, on third downs, and against the blitz. I'm sorry but the Broncos fucked up this QB situation badly.
Prediction: 6-10 and last in the AFC West.
2011 AFC PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS:
1) San Diego 12-4 (West)
2) New England 11-5 (East)
3) Pittsburgh 10-6 (North)
4) Houston 10-6 (South)
5) Indy 10-6 (Wild Card)
6) Oakland 9-7 (Wild Card)
Wild Card Weekend
5-Indy over 4-Houston (The Texans win the division, but Manning and the Colts get the best of them in first ever playoff game Texans' history.)
3-Pitt over 6-Oakland (A rematch of those classic 70s Steeler-Raider games. The Steelers knock off the Raiders without the help of the Immaculate Reception.)
Divisional Round
1-San Diego over 5-Indy (SD beat the Colts in the 2007 and 2008 playoffs, and now they beat them again in 2011.)
2-New England over 3-Pittsburgh (The Pats snap their three game playoff losing streak and head to AFC Title Game for first time since 2007.)
AFC Championship
1-San Diego over 2-New England (Rivers gets to his first Super Bowl, and Chargers reach first Super Bowl since 1994.)
SUPER BOWL XLVI
San Diego over New Orleans
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