AFC
1) The Bills will miss the playoffs with a record of 9-7. Buffalo has tough dates left with the Jets, at Dallas, Tennessee, at San Diego, and at New England. That looks like a tough schedule and the Bills will fall just short.
2) Houston will win the AFC South. It is a two-team race in the South with the Texans and and Titans. Houston hosts Tennessee in Week 17, and the Texans will win that game and win the division for the first time in team history.
3) The Chargers will win the AFC West. If Jason Campbell didn't get hurt, then I probably would have picked the Raiders winning the West. I just can't see Carson Palmer playing that well down the stretch to win enough games. The Chargers will rise up and take the division again.
4) The Ravens will get the final wild card spot over the Jets. Baltimore will get the final spot over the Jets because the Jets will lose the tiebreaker because of their Week 3 loss in Baltimore.
5) The final wild card spot will come from this group: Cincy, Tennessee, and Oakland. I don't know how, but it will come from those three.
NFC
1) The Eagles will win the NFC East in a wild race over the Cowboys and the Giants. The Giants' schedule is just too tough, and the Cowboys are just too inconsistent. I see the Eagles getting 10 wins and a division crown.
2) The San Francisco 49ers will be the #2 seed in the NFC and get a bye in the first round.
3) The Packers will lose a game this season, but easily lock up the NFC North and homefield in the NFC.
4) The Saints will win the NFC South and hold off the Falcons.
5) The Giants will defy the odds and make the playoffs as a wild card. The Lions will get the other wild card spot after they beat out the likes of Dallas, Atlanta, Chicago and Tampa Bay.
Onto the picks for Week 9.......
Last Week's Record: 5-8-0
Overall Record: 51-58-7
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)
Atlanta (-7) over INDY: Can we just list all of Jim Caldwell's wins the past few years with an asterik. Think about it: When Caldwell had Peyton Manning as his QB, he won 14 and 10 games in 2009 and 2010. This year, without Manning he is 0-8 with no hope in sight. He is pretty much get exposed this season without number 18. On the other hand, the Falcons get a gift this week, which sets them up nicely at 5-3 for their upcoming three-game homestand.
Tampa Bay (+8) over NEW ORLEANS: I expect the Saints to win this game, but I am sticking with the underdogs this week with any spread over a touchdown. The Saints will rebound from last week's disaster at St. Louis, but the Bucs always play them tough and this week will be no different.
Cleveland (+11) over HOUSTON: The Colt McCoy train is really slowing down in recent weeks. Early in the preseason and in the early regular season, he was seen as Cleveland's new savior, but he is getting exposed for what he is: A third round, second year quarterback. Throw in Peyton Hillis' stinkbomb of a season, and I really am screwed with my "Browns 2011 Sleeper" pick. The Texans will win this won, but this one looks like a 23-20 Houston win on a late field goal.
New York Jets (+2) over BUFFALO: I'm going to bank on these two facts for this game: First, the Jets got a huge boost from that comeback win over San Diego two weeks ago. If that game doesn't get the Jets going, then they are really cooked this year. Secondly, I love the story of the Bills this year, and I am happy for Ryan Fitzpatrick, but don't you get the feeling that Fitzpatrick plays awful in this game, and every Buffalo fan is wondering "We just gave a huge extension to Ryan Fitzpatrick!"
Miami (+4) over KANSAS CITY: The bookies were ready for this one and installed the Chiefs as only four point favorites at home to the winless Dolphins. This game is my "Upset Special of the Week." Miami has been dangerously close to winning a few games this year, and this week they will pop the champagne on their first victory of 2011. The Chiefs are due to stub their toe, and this seems like the perfect week to do it.
San Francisco (-3) over WASHINGTON: How long can the Niners play mistake free, smart, football? How long can they keep their ground game churning? How can they keep Alex Smith from screwing up the game plan? I say they keep doing those things at least another week. If Washington loses, Mike Shanahan's record will be 9-18 in his last 27 games going back to Denver in 2008.
Seattle (+12) over DALLAS: Let me preface this by saying that the Cowboys will win this game. DeMarcus Ware might break the NFL single season sack record in this game alone, but the Seahawks will get a cheap, backdoor cover. Welcome to the 2011 NFL season!
TENNESSEE (-3) over Cincy: The Bengals are a nice story at 5-2, but they are this year's version of the 2010 Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Cincy is not going to make the playoffs this year, and this week they will get a beatdown from the Titans. With all of Chris Johnson's struggles, give Matt Hasselbeck credit for guiding this offense without the presence of Kenny Britt. The Titans take care of business at home.
St. Louis (+3) over ARIZONA: I can't believe how bad the Cardinals and Kevin Kolb are this season. I must admit that I was dead wrong about Kolb, the Cardinals, and Ken Whisenhunt this season. They are dreadful, and blowing a 24-3 lead at Baltimore last week was the backbreaker. Look for the Rams to get their second win.
New York Giants (+9) over NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: How many times did they show highlights of Super Bowl 42 this week? This is a huge early November game, and the suits at FOX must be doing cartwheels with both teams coming in at 5-2. I know that Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are spectacular when they come off a loss, but the Giants will keep it close. Eli Manning is playing some of the best football of his career, and I expect him to keep the G-Men in the game throughout. If Eli starts off slow, then this game could get ugly.
SAN DIEGO (+6) over Green Bay: The Chargers defense is going to have a really tough time stopping Aaron Rodgers, but this could be the week that Philip Rivers empties the holster. If this game becomes a shootout, and I think it will, don't be surprised to see Rivers holding the last bullet. Now that I am done with Wild West references, look for the Chargers to keep it close and maybe even pull off the upset.
PITTSBURGH (-3) over Baltimore: After the Ravens dismantled the Steelers in Week One, you knew this matchup would be circled on Pittsburgh's calendar. It is here and remarkably the Steelers are at 6-2 and no one knows how. The Ravens were being called the AFC's best team just two weeks ago, but after an awful loss at Jacksonville and a close win over Arizona at home, people are starting to worry about Joe Flacco and the 5-2 Ravens. I would be worried two after watching the Ravens play the last two weeks. Throw in the fact that the Steelers have one of the most explosive group of receivers in the league, and their defense is getting it done even with a boatload of injuries, and this game looks like it will be Stillers all the way.
PHILLY (-7) over Chicago: Great matchup on Monday Night Football. If Philly brings their A game like they did against Dallas last week, then the Eagles are the second best team in the NFC. The Bears will move the ball and run it well, but when push comes to shove, the Eagles and Mike Vick will get it done and even their record at 4-4.
OAKLAND (-8) over Denver: The Broncos fanbase is probably the second most miserable right now in the NFL. The Dolphins are number one, and Denver is running a solid second. It is a shame that after all those years of competitive football, I am looking at a second straight year of meaningless football by Thanksgiving. Watching Tim Tebow play poorly was the last nail in the coffin for the Broncos and their faithful. Denver might not win another game this season, and I really can't see them being favored in any of their other nine games. As much as I would love to see Tebow play well and rally the Broncos on the road, I just can't get the sight of the Raiders front seven completely dominating the Broncos offensive line in Week 1. This game will get ugly, no matter how poorly Carson Palmer plays for Oakland. Tebow Time might be over after this week.
Final Score:
Oakland-29 Denver-10
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