2011 NFL Rewind-A Look Back

After the NFL season ends, it is very common for the die hard NFL fan to take a break and a step away from football. Think about it: The hardcore NFL fan has just thrusted him or herself into a five month binge of football. Once the Super Bowl ends, it is a good time to step away, reunite with your other family members, take in some movies or other television shows, read a few books, exercise, eat healthy, and pay attention to your job again. After about a few weeks of that, Joe NFL Fan decides that it is time to look ahead to the next season that seems so far away. That means free agency, trades, the NFL Draft, the release of the NFL schedule, minicamps, and OTAs. With all of those exciting aspects of the NFL offseason coming up- I'm sorry-the "Non-playing season" coming up, it is always fun to go back and see what happened to all those picks that were made in August. My favorite time to write is right when the season is going to start in September. I love trying to figure out which teams will be good, which will fail miserably, which will surprise, and which will disappoint. Unlike most of the analysts and talking heads, I don't just pick 9 or 10 of last year's playoff teams and predict that they will be back. I'll leave those predictions for the Peter King's of the world, but as I have said before: When you make NFL predictions, you have to be bold and take some chances. Otherwise, it wouldn't be fun, and the season usually turns out unpredictable anyway, so why not try to be ahead of the curve. Unlike most analysts and writers, I like to go back and see what I got right and what I got wrong. Before I get to my predictions, remember I always try to use a formula for each season. On average 6 teams that made the playoffs the previous year make it back the next. That leaves 6 teams that made it the previous year on the outside looking in the next year.

Here are the results for 2011: Six teams that returned from 2010: New England, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, New Orleans, Green Bay and Atlanta.

Six teams that missed out on the 2011 playoffs after making it in 2010: New York Jets, Indianapolis, Kansas City, Chicago, Philadelphia, and Seattle.

Another year and another example of how the formula holds true. Without further ado here is my 2011 NFL Rewind- A look back at my predictions for the 2011 NFL season.........

AFC EAST

My Predictions

1-New England (11-5)

2-New York Jets (10-6)*Wild Card

3-Miami Dolphins (7-9)

4-Buffalo Bills (6-10)

Actual Records: New England won the East with a 13-3 record. The Jets finished 8-8 and out of the playoffs. Miami and Buffalo both finished 6-10.

Footnotes:

-I had the Pats winning the division, so I get credit for that.

-I was nervous about the Jets going into the season, but I felt better about them when they were 8-5. Their collapse at the end of the season confirmed my worst fears about them.

-The Dolphins finished right where I thought they would finish, and I nailed the Bills dead on.

AFC North

1-Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6)

2-Cleveland Browns (9-7)*Wild Card

3-Baltimore Ravens (8-8)

4-Cincinnati Bengals (4-12)

Actual Records: Baltimore won the North with a 12-4 record. The Steelers finished 12-4 and took a wild card berth. The Bengals finished 9-7 and got the other wild card. Cleveland finished in last with a 4-12 record.

Footnotes:

-I thought either the Ravens or the Jets would miss the playoffs in 2011. I picked the Jets to make it and the Ravens to miss it, and I was dead wrong on that one.

-I had Pittsburgh winning the division and they didn't, but they made the playoffs as a wild card, so I at least had them in the playoffs.

-The Browns were my 2011 sleeper pick, and they were awful. I was so off on this pick that it was embarrassing that I even considered them. I was trying to think outside the box, and I got nailed for that one.

-The Bengals totally exceeded my expectations, and I was shocked that they won 9 games.

AFC South

1-Houston Texans (10-6)

2-Indianapolis Colts (8-8)

3-Tennessee Titans (7-9)

4-Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11)

Actual Records: Houston won the division at 10-6. The Titans finished second with a 9-7 record. Jacksonville finished with a 5-11 record. Indy finished last with a 2-14 mark.

Footnotes:

-Peyton Manning's injury totally screwed up everything when trying to make predictions. Originally, it seemed that Peyton might miss only a few games early in the year, so I figured that the Colts would be in trouble without him, and then he would dig them out of a hole. Then, it sounded like he might miss half the season, so I went with the idea that they would be like 2-6 when he came back, and he would at least help them get to 8-8. Obviously, if I had known that he would miss the entire season, then I would have picked them to finish last.

-Once Manning was injured, it was easy to pick the Texans to win the South.

-The Titans exceeded my expectations by two games, but I still had them missing the playoffs.

-I nailed the Jaguars pick pretty easily.

AFC West

1-San Diego Chargers (12-4)

2-Oakland Raiders (7-9)

3-Kansas City Chiefs (7-9)

4-Denver Broncos (6-10)

Actual Records: Denver won the West with an 8-8 record. San Diego and Oakland both finished 8-8, and the Chiefs finished last at 7-9.

Footnotes:

-I was shocked that Denver won the division, but if Tim Tebow had started the season at QB, then I think I might have picked them to go 8-8. Remember, at the time I made the predictions, Kyle Orton was firmly entrenched as the Broncos starter. I wasn't totally sold on Orton or the Broncos at that point.

-I was totally wrong on the Chargers. I think I pick the Chargers every year, but this year they failed to live up to expectations. They started off 1-4, but a six-game losing streak killed their chances.

-I got the Raiders prediction pretty good, and I was one of the few people that didn't like the Raiders going into the season.

-It was easy to see that the Chiefs would fall off from their surprising 2010 season, and I nailed that record exactly for them.

2011 AFC Playoff Predictions:

1-San Diego (12-4)

2-New England (11-5)

3-Pittsburgh (10-6)

4-Houston (10-6)

5-NY Jets (10-6)

6-Cleveland (9-7)

AFC Wild Card Weekend

5-NY Jets over 4-Houston

3-Pittsburgh over 6-Cleveland

AFC Divisional Round

1-San Diego over 5-NY Jets

2-New England over 3-Pittsburgh

AFC Title

1-San Diego over New England

Footnotes:

-I did have Houston hosting their first ever playoff game, but I had them losing in the first round, and they actually won their first playoff game.

-I would really like to have that Jets playoff win back.

-I can't even look at that Browns pick again.

-I had New England winning its' first playoff game. I knew they weren't going to lose four straight playoff games.

-I did have New England in the AFC Championship, but I had them losing to the Chargers. San Diego not making the playoffs really screwed my postseason predictions.

NFC Predictions

NFC East

1-Philadelphia Eagles (12-4)

2-Dallas Cowboys (10-6) *Wild Card

3-NY Giants (8-8)

4-Washington Redskins (7-9)

Actual Records: The Giants won the East with a 9-7 record. Philly and Dallas both finished at 8-8, and the Redskins finished 5-11 and in last place.

Footnotes:

-I bought into the Philly "Dream Team" hype, and I picked the Eagles to win the division. I figured that with Mike Vick coming back and those free agent pickups would do enough to vault them to the top of the division. Obviously, the Eagles disappointed me all season long, and they didn't live up to my expectations at all.

-Dallas making the wild card looked good until they faltered down the stretch. If they had won that home Sunday Night game against the Giants, that would have gotten them into the playoffs, but they lost a close game, and I just missed out with them making the playoffs.

-I thought the Giants were in for a rough season. They didn't do much in free agency, and their injuries were alarming. There was a lot of doubt about this team heading into the season, and I thought they weren't going to overcome it. I was dead wrong, and once again the Giants got hot at the right time at the end of the season and into the playoffs.

-The Redskins fell exactly where I thought they would fall, and I wasn't sold on either Rex Grossman or John Beck, and it proved to be an issue all year long.

NFC North

1-Green Bay Packers (11-5)

2-Detroit Lions (9-7)* Wild Card

3-Minnesota Vikings (8-8)

4-Chicago Bears (5-11)

Actual Records: Green Bay won the North with a 15-1 record. Detroit finished second at 10-6 and gained a wildcard berth. The Bears finished third at 8-8, and the Vikings finished last at 3-13.

Footnotes:

-I nailed the first two spots in this division. I had the Packers winning the division, and that was a solid pick.

-A lot of people loved the Lions early in August, and then by September people were saying that they were a year away. I was glad I stuck with them, and I nailed that pick. I had them in the playoffs from day one, and I never wavered on that pick, and they proved me right.

-I was way off with the Vikings. I thought they would be a feisty team with Donovan McNabb, and they were far from that. I had them at .500, and they were nowhere close to that.

-I take credit for not picking the Bears to make the playoffs, but I got lucky on this pick. The Bears would have made the playoffs if Jay Cutler didn't get hurt, and they were actually a lot better than I expected them to be.

NFC South

1-New Orleans Saints (10-6)

2-Atlanta Falcons (8-8)

3-Carolina Panthers (7-9)

4-Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-10)

Actual Records: The Saints won the division with a 13-3 record. The Falcons finished second at 10-6 and made the playoffs. The Panthers finished third at 6-10, and the Bucs finished last at 4-12.

Footnotes:

-I got the Saints prediction right, and I had them winning the division.

-I thought the Falcons were going to miss the playoffs, but they ended up winning 10 games and making it in. For a little while it looked like Atlanta was going to miss the playoffs, and I was going to be right on this one, but they ended up turning it around and getting in.

-I nailed the Panthers pretty good. I had them winning 7 games, and they ended up winning 6.

-I never bought into the Raheem Morris regime, and I knew they were not going to live up to their surprising 2010 season. I had them finishing last with 6 wins, and I was dead on with that prediction. The Bucs were disappointing all season, and they ended up with only 4 wins.

NFC West

1-Arizona Cardinals (9-7)

2-San Francisco 49ers (8-8)

3-St.Louis Rams (7-9)

4-Seattle Seahawks (4-12)

Actual Records: San Francisco won the West with a 13-3 record. Arizona finished second at 8-8. Seattle finished third at 7-9. The Rams finished last at 2-14.

Footnotes:

-This was such a tough division to predict because no team jumped out at you right away. I went with the Cardinals because I thought that Kevin Kolb would make a difference, and I think Ken Whisenhunt is a solid coach. The Cards started off terrible, but rallied to finish at 8-8. Kolb was shaky at QB, and he ended up getting hurt for most of the season. I might have been a year away with the Cards.

-The Niners were this year's surprise team. I thought they were at least a year away, and I didn't buy into Alex Smith. They proved me wrong as they won 13 games and the division.

-I had a feeling the Rams weren't going to live up to preseason expectations, and I was correct. However, I was surprised they only won 2 games-at least I gave the 7 wins.

-I thought Seattle was going to bottom out mainly because they were going with Tarvaris Jackson at quarterback. It looked ugly early on, but they turned their season around, and fought hard to win 7 games. I was wrong about Seattle big time.

NFC Playoff Predictions 2011:

NFC PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS:

1) Philly (12-4) NFC East

2) Green Bay (11-5) NFC North

3) New Orleans (10-6) NFC South

4) Arizona (9-7) NFC West

5) Dallas (10-6) Wild Card

6) Detroit (9-7) Wild Card

Wild Card Weekend

3-New Orleans over 6-Detroit

5-Dallas over Arizona

Divisional Weekend

1-Philly over 5-Dallas

3-New Orleans over 2-Green Bay

NFC Championship

3-New Orleans over 1-Philly

Footnotes:

-I nailed one of the Wild Card games dead on. I had the Saints over Detroit, so that counts for something.

-I also was correct in saying that Green Bay would lose their first playoff game at home.

-I was close to getting the Saints in the NFC Title Game, but they fell one game short. Obviously, the Eagles didn't even get to the playoffs.

Super Bowl Prediction:

San Diego over New Orleans

Footnotes:

Having New Orleans in the Super Bowl is respectable, but picking San Diego to win it was a bad mistake by me. I did learn a lesson from this: NEVER EVER PICK A TEAM COACHED BY NORV TURNER TO WIN THE SUPER BOWL!!!!!!! Anyway, the Chargers did battle back from a 4-7 record to finish 8-8. If they made the playoffs, they would have been the team that no one wanted to play in the AFC, and the best part for Broncos fans is that the Chargers brought Norv back for another season.

FINAL PREDICTIONS ANALYSIS:

I correctly predicted 6 teams to make the playoffs (New England, Houston, Pittsburgh, New Orleans, Green Bay, and Detroit).

Also, I got 4 out of the 8 division winners correct (NE, NO, GB, and HOUS). To get 6 out of 12 playoff teams correct in the NFL is not too bad. As always it leaves with me a goal. Maybe next year I can get all 12 teams correct. That sounds impossible and unlikely, but with just like the NFL players and teams, I have all offseason to gear up and get ready.