2012 Sleeper Report

As July 4th passed, the dog days of summer have arrived. Training camp commences around the NFL by the end of the month, so the focus of looking ahead to a new season has begun. One of the best storylines heading into any training camp is the concept of picking a "Sleeper" team for the upcoming season. Before ESPN got a hold of this concept, it was always fun to look ahead and try to pick out the one team that is going to shock everyone and make the playoffs. There is also a criteria to picking a sleeper team.

The most important rule for picking a sleeper is that the team in question had to have lost at least 10 games the year before. 8-8 teams can surprise people, but those teams are on the cusp anyway, so to find a true sleeper you have to find a team that lost 10 or more games the year before. Let's go back to the first year I started this blog in 2008. Here are the teams that lost 10 games the year before and made the playoffs the following year:
*The team's record the prior year is in parentheses 

2008
-Atlanta (4-12)
-Miami (1-15)
-Baltimore (5-11)

2009
-Cincinnati (4-11-1)
-Green Bay (6-10)

2010
-Kansas City (4-12)
-Seattle (5-11)

2011
-Houston (6-10)
-Detroit (6-10)
-San Francisco (6-10)
-Cincinnati (4-12)
-Denver (4-12)

There weren't many people picking the Bengals or Broncos to make the playoffs last year. The Chiefs weren't generating a lot of buzz in 2010. No one saw Cincy coming back in 2009, and certainly no one thought the Dolphins or Falcons would rebound from horrific seasons in 2007 to make the playoffs in '08. The true sleeper is a team that really comes out of nowhere. Here is the list of the 2012 Sleeper Candidates. Remember that at least one of these following teams is going to make the playoffs in 2012.


Washington (5-11)
Minnesota (3-13)
Carolina (6-10)
Tampa Bay (4-12)
St. Louis (2-14)
Miami (6-10)
Buffalo (6-10)
Cleveland (4-12)
Jacksonville (5-11)
Indianapolis (2-14)

Which of these teams will make the playoffs next season? If you had to rank them in order, with number 10 being the longest shot and number one have the best shot, then this is how I see it:

10) Jacksonville: They have new head coach and a new owner, but their QB situation is still the same. Blaine Gabbert might be out of a job by the time October rolls around.

9) Minnesota: They seem to be a few years away, and Leslie Frazier is on the hot seat. Plus, how are they going to get past Detroit, Chicago, and Green Bay in their own division?

8) Cleveland: It seems like the Browns are on this list every year. I'm not sold on Mike Holmgren overseeing the football operations, I'm not sold on Pat Shurmur as a head coach, and I'm not sold in Brandon Weeden becoming the franchise savior at quarterback.

7) Miami: I'm not sold on Jeff Ireland as a general manager, I'm not sold on Joe Philbin as a head coach, and I'm certainly not sold on the trio of David Garrard, Matt Moore and Ryan Tannehill at the QB position.

6) Indianapolis: I was intrigued by the Colts early this offseason because you have to think that Andrew Luck is the next big thing at quarterback, but I looked at their current roster, and there are some real question marks in there. They are a year away.

5) St. Louis: You would be surprised to think that the Rams are this high on the sleeper list, but they have good, young quarterback in Sam Bradford, and they have a quality head coach in Jeff Fisher. Also, their division stinks so don't be surprised in the Rams really improve their win total in 2012. They too are probably a year away.

4) Tampa Bay: They are a really interesting team as a sleeper. New head coach Greg Schiano looks like he might be able to turn things around quickly in Tampa. Josh Freeman should have a bounce back year, and they added Vincent Jackson and Carl Nicks in free agency. This team could be one to keep your eye on.

3) Carolina Panthers: If Cam Newton continues to dazzle every Sunday, then the Panthers will be a major playoff contender for years to come. It is very enticing to pick them as the 2012 sleeper, but it will all boil down to Newton. If he has a sophomore slump, then the Panthers are in trouble.

2) Washington Redskins: Mike Shanahan has to get things turned around soon in D.C. If Robert Griffin III can come in and produce like they think he can, then this team will be very dangerous. Their one big knock is that they play in the NFC East, which figures to be brutal once again this season.

1) Buffalo Bills: Last year, they were 5-2 and looked like a lock for the playoffs. Injuries killed their season and they finished 6-10. They could be very dangerous this year, and the signing of Mario Williams could really have altered this franchise. They are the perfect candidate for the 2012 Sleeper Team.