2012 NFL Predictions Part 2-AFC

With the NFC out of the way, here are the 2012 AFC predictions...

AFC East
1) New England Patriots
What I Like: Yes, it is very easy to pick the Pats to win the AFC East every year, but there are a few reasons for that. Those reasons are Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. As long as Brady and Belichick are together, then this team will be in contention. The Patriots really reloaded this offseason. They added WR Brandon Lloyd to a deep receiving crew. They drafted two difference makers on defense: Chandler Jones and Dont'a Hightower. The Patriots might be better than last year's 13-3 team that fell short in the Super Bowl. Plus, they are head and shoulders above everyone else in their division, and their schedule is very favorable. They play the lowly NFC West (San Francisco at home) and the AFC South. They finish with three out of four at home, and their lone road game in that stretch is at Jacksonville. The Patriots will definitely be a factor come January, and they will make their ninth playoff appearance in 10 years.

What I Don't Like: Their offensive line is in a tone of trouble right now. It may get fixed early in the season, but there are question marks all over the board for them upfront. Logan Mankins is recovering from a knee injury, Brian Waters hasn't reported to camp yet, and Sebastian Vollmer is out with an injury. The Pats need a solution to line problem or Tom Brady is in big trouble this season. Their other concern has to be in their secondary. They really need better play from everyone in that unit, and if the secondary doesn't hold up, then they are going to give up a lot of plays again.

Prediction: 11-5 and winners of the AFC East.

2) Buffalo Bills
What I Like: You have to love the Bills defensive line. Adding Mario Williams was a potentially franchise-altering move. Their defensive line now consists of Williams, Marcell Dareus, a healthy Kyle Williams, and Mark Anderson. The Bills are going to get after it up front. The other strength of this team is the secondary. Buffalo added Stephon Gilmore in the draft at CB. Gilmore joins the likes of Aaron Williams, Jairus Byrd, and George Wilson. Also, don't be surprised if fourth round pick Ron Brooks out of LSU gets himself some playing time. Offensively, the Bills were able to resign Stevie Johnson and pair him with TE Scott Chandler, WR David Nelson, and WR Donald Jones. Fred Jackson returns healthy, and C.J. Spiller might have finally found his role in their offense. The Bills have weapons on offense. There was a reason why they started 5-2 last year. If QB Ryan Fitzpatrick plays the way he did during the first half of last season, they this offense will generate a lot of points. The Bills have the right formula set up for them to make the playoffs for the first time since 1999.

What I Don't Like: Can the Bills stop the run? This has been a weakness for them for the last few seasons. If they can't stop the run again, then they are in trouble. Another weakness for them has been offensive line. There are still some question marks on the line, and the tackle spots are a concern. Ryan Fitzpatrick needs all the help he can get, and if the line is shaky, then Fitzpatrick will have some trouble being consistent. Another factor that I worry about for them is how they faded down the stretch last year. Are the Bills going to be the team that started 5-2? Are they going to be the team that finished 1-8? Can they sustain success and build on it all year long? Those are very important questions that will face this team at some point this season.

Prediction 9-7 and a Wild Card berth

3) New York Jets
What I Like: The Jets will be competitive and in the playoff hunt all season because of their defense. They have Darrelle Revis, Antonio Cromartie, David Harris, Sione Pouha, and Calvin Pace to lead the way. It looks like there is plenty of potential in young guys like Muhammad Wilkerson and Quinton Coples. Also, they definitely upgraded their secondary with the additions of Yeremiah Bell and LaRon Landry. Rex Ryan will get that defense to play well week in and week out. Their schedule is also very favorable. Not only to they get the chance to lineup against the AFC South and the NFC West, but take a look a this favorable scheduling quirk: The Jets don't have to travel from September 23rd to October 21st. They head to Miami on the 9/23, and they have three straight home games before they travel to New England on 10/21. Plus, their next next two weeks involve a home game against Miami and a bye week. From September 23rd through November 11th, the Jets only have to hit the road twice in that span.

What I Don't Like: The offense is the spot where you get nervous if your a Jet fan. Two years ago, they went to the AFC Championship Game with this group of receivers: Dustin Keller, Santonio Holmes, Braylon Edwards, and Jericho Cotchery. This year the group features Keller, Holmes, Chaz Schillens, Jeremy Kerley, and rookie Stephen Hill. That doesn't exactly scare too many defensive coordinators. Tim Tebow's presence might be felt eary on, but you have to wonder how long his "Wildcat" package will work or catch people by surprise. If your offense gets rhythm going early in the game, why would you change it up and bring Tebow to run zone read plays? It doesn't make any sense. Mark Sanchez has had to deal with the Tebow circus all summer,  and it is hard to believe that it will not affect him once the season starts. The Tebow/Sanchez debate could really become a negative factor for this team. Also, their right tackle position has looked very shaky in preseason, and Wayne Hunter lost his job to Austin Howard, and the team traded Hunter to the Rams for Jason Smith. Smith has been a bust since he was taken number two overall in 2009. That spot could get Sanchez killed this season. They have to find a way to protect their quarterback, and it looks like they are really going to struggle on offense because of that suspect line play. They didn't close the gap on the Patriots, and they probably didn't get better than the Bills this offseason too. The Jets will be in the wild card mix all year long, but there are too many questions marks on offense that will hinder their chances of making the playoffs in 2012.

Prediction: 8-8 and third in the AFC East

4) Miami Dolphins
What I Like: After watching HBO's "Hard Knocks," I've decided that I have taken a liking to new head coach Joe Philbin. He has a calm demeanor, and he has grown on me as the head man of the new Dolphins program. I really think that down the road he will have a positive influence on this football team. After they started 0-7, they finished the season on a 6-3 run. Two of those threes losses were by a combined four points on the road against Dallas and New England. Their defense is going to be their strength, and they do have a stud pass rusher in Cameron Wake. Reggie Bush finally seemed to get it, and he could surpass his 1,086 yard and six touchdown performance this season. Plus, the Dolphins have been counted out the entire offseason, and nobody thinks they are going to be any good this fall. They could use that as motivation.

What I Don't Like: The Fish will start rookie QB Ryan Tannehill right out of the gate in Week 1. Tannehill went 8th overall in the draft, and many people felt that was drafted too high. Some people felt that QBs like Brandon Weeden and Russell Wilson were better prospects than Tannehill. Obviously, the Dolphins had to grab a quarterback, and after striking out in the Peyton Manning sweepstakes, they overvalued Tannehill and selected early. The writing is on the wall that Tannehill will struggle mightily this season. Plus, he wasn't given a great crew of receivers to work with. The Dolphins also play in the ultra-competitive AFC East, so getting out of their division will be very tough. All signs point to another down year for Miami.

Prediction: 5-11 and last in the AFC East

AFC North
1) Pittsburgh Steelers
What I Like: When you have Mike Tomlin and Ben Roethlisberger as your QB-Coach combination, then you are going to be good more times than not. If you don't think Big Ben is an elite QB, then watch the playoff loss at Denver last year. On one leg, Roethlisberger willed his team back into that game, and almost singlehandedly won it himself. After a long holdout, it looks like Mike Wallace will be back for the season opener. I know they are getting older on defense, but they still have LaMarr Woodley, Lawrence Timmons, Ryan Clark and Troy Polamalu. Although they lost new OG David DeCastro for most of the season due to a knee injury, the Steelers have always found a way to make it work with a patchwork offensive line. A lot of experts are picking the Ravens to win the division, and I think many people are doubting the Steelers. At the end of every season, Pittsburgh always seems to be in the mix, and this year will be no different. Look for the Steelers to win the division once again.

What I Don't Like: The Ravens are probably the better team right now. The schedule makers certainly did not do them any favors. Here are their first four games: at Denver, home against the Jets, at Oakland, and home against Philly. Then, they travel to Tennessee and Cincy. After that slate, they host Washington, travel to take on the Giants, and host KC and Baltimore. That is a tough stretch of games in the first half of the season. Also, is their line going to hold up and protect Big Ben? Who is going to carry the load with Rashard Mendenhall coming back from knee surgery? Those are going to be big questions heading into the season.

Prediction: 11-5 and winners of the AFC North

2) Baltimore Ravens
What I Like: This is a team that was so close to going to the Super Bowl last year. Courtney Upshaw fell into their lap in round 2 of the draft, and they return most of their key pieces from last season. Joe Flacco looks like he is ready to make the leap, and as long as Ray Lewis is around that defense will be stout. Four out of their first six games are at home. On paper, the Ravens look like the team to beat in the AFC.

What I Don't Like: Sometimes, you just get a feeling that a team is heading for a down year. This Ravens team feels like that team for me. A lot of experts have them penciled in as the AFC's Super Bowl representative, and they have made the playoffs the last four seasons. It just seems that they are due for a year where everything goes wrong. It started with the injury to Terrell Suggs in the offseason, and I just have a feeling that the Ravens are going to disappoint this year. You really can't explain it, but my gut tells me that Baltimore will take a step back this year and miss the playoffs for the first time since 2007.

Prediction: 8-8 and second in the AFC North

3) Cincinnati Bengals
What I Like: Andy Dalton and A.J. Green have the potential to be a brilliant combination for the future. Making the playoffs last year was a huge step for this young team, and they have plenty of talent on both sides of the ball. They added Dre Kirkpatrick in the draft, and he is slated to contribute heavily right away. Overall, their draft was really solid and they replaced Cedric Benson with Benjarvus Green-Ellis. Their defense is a solid, underrated group, and the early part of their schedule features two games against Cleveland, Miami, Washington and Jacksonville. They could very easily be 5-1 heading into Week 7.

What I Don't Like: Let's be honest: This is the Bengals were are talking about. I just find it very hard to believe that they will duplicate what they did in 2011. Andy Dalton overachieved last year, and you would he might take a step back this season. They still have to deal with the Ravens and the Steelers four times combined. The back end of their schedule is really tough. They play the entire AFC West, the Giants, Dallas, Philly and Baltimore all in November and December. I just don't see the Bengals surviving that and making another playoff run.

Prediction: 7-9 and third place in the AFC North

4) Cleveland Browns
What I Like: They got the QB-RB combination that they wanted in the draft, and they already planted Brandon Weeden as their starting quarterback. Weeden was considered the second best NFL ready passer in the draft. It would not surprise me if he comes in and plays really well early on. Trent Richardson could be a real difference maker in the backfield, and you know you will get big plays out of Josh Cribbs.

What I Don't Like: Richardson already got his knee scoped during training camp, and it is a question mark to start the season healthy. I wasn't impressed at all by head coach Pat Shurmur last year, and I wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't get to year three of his regime. They are so far behind the other teams in their division, so it is hard to see how they are going to be competitive this year. Plus, they just went through an ownership change, so the entire front office, coaches, and players are on egg shells. The Browns will struggle once again in 2012.

Prediction: 5-11 and last place in the AFC North.

AFC South
1) Tennessee Titans
What I Like: It starts at the top. I was impressed with Mike Munchak last season in his first year as a head coach. He gets it, and he has the Titans on the right track. Don't forget this team went 9-7 last year  and missed the playoffs on a tiebreaker. Chris Johnson should be able to have a bounce back season. Look for him to return to form this season. Kendall Wright has looked good in preseason, and he could be the explosive receiver that this team desperately needs. Defensively, the Titans are solid all around, and they are going to play a style that suits a young quarterback. Play good defense, run the ball with Johnson, control the clock, and don't make mistakes and turn the ball over. Some teams get overlooked completely, and everyone has handed the division crown to the Texans. Watch out for the Titans, and they will sneak up on Houston and steal this division.

What I Don't Like: The Titans got ripped for reaching for Jake Locker at number eight overall in the 2011 Draft. Now, Locker gets his chance to start. Is there a chance that Locker struggles and this team falls flat? Of course there is that chance, so the Titans better hope that Locker can get through the ups and downs of his first year starting. Also, their division is much improved. The Texans are good, and the Colts will be better. They have to play the AFC East and the NFC North, two divisions that are loaded with quality teams. Their first four games are really tough: home against New England, at San Diego, home against Detroit, and at Houston. The first four games could really set the Titans back.

Prediction: 9-7 and winners of the AFC South

2) Houston Texans
What I Like: The Texans look like a team poised to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. They are the trendy pick for a reason. Houston has boatloads of talent, and now they get Matt Schaub healthy again. Their defense should be improved again under Wade Phillips. You know Arian Foster is going to be their workhorse on offense, and there aren't too many holes on this roster. They could get off to a fast start because in their first four games they get to play Miami and Tennessee at home and travel to Jacksonville in three of those games.

What I Don't Like: There are always teams that get all the hype in the offseason, then they fail to live up expectations. I already feel that the Ravens could be one of those teams that looks great on paper but ultimately disappoints. The Texans are going to be the second surprise, disappointing team of 2012. I just have a feeling on this one. As a Broncos fan, I had admiration for Gary Kubiak, but I'm not totally sold on him as a big-time NFL head coach. Sometimes, you get the breaks in a season, and sometimes you don't get the breaks. This season, the Texans won't get the breaks, and they will miss the playoffs in 2012.

Prediction: 8-8 and second place in the AFC South

3) Indianapolis Colts
What I Like: If you evaluated all 32 starting quarterbacks in the NFL, regardless of experience, wouldn't you put Andrew Luck in the top 16 right now? Luck is going to be the real deal, and he will automatically make the Colts offense a lot better this year. With the success that a lot of young quarterbacks have had in the league recently, there is no doubt that Luck should be able to be very productive this year. They still have Reggie Wayne, and they added Luck's buddy Cody Fleener in the draft. You can't get any worse then this team was last year. The only way for them to go is up. New head coach Chuck Pagano will need time to revamp their defense, but they still have Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis. The Colts will be much improved and they will surprise a lot of people this season.

What I Don't Like: The Colts will feel the growing pains of having a first time head coach and a rookie quarterback. As great as Luck is, he will have to deal with some rough waters as the season progresses. You have to wonder about their offensive line play, and their secondary is a big question mark. They have to deal with the AFC East and the NFC North, and they are clearly behind Tennessee and Houston in their division.

Prediction: 8-8 and third place in the AFC South

4) Jacksonville Jaguars
What I Like: No one thinks the Jaguars are going to be any good this year, and they could use that as motivation and sneak up on some teams. New owner Shad Kahn might be able to revive this franchise a little bit. If Justin Blackmon gets his head on straight, then he looks like he can be a major weapon in this league right away. Maurice Jones-Drew is still their best player, provided he ends his holdout, and their defense is underrated. Their first four games aren't brutal: at Minnesota, home vs. Houston, at Indy, and home to Cincy. Blaine Gabbert can't play any worse than he did as a rookie last year, so you should see some improvement in the QB spot.

What I Don't Like: The MJD holdout can't be a good omen for them. Even if he comes back in time for the season, those long holdouts always seem to end up in some sort of hamstring or groin injury. Although Gabbert looked much improved in preseason, we said the same thing about Colt McCoy during the preseason last year. Look how that turned out. I'm not sold on Gabbert being the answer, and it wouldn't surprise me if he gets benched in favor of Chad Henne at some point. For a team with little hype going into the season, there really isn't too much to hang your hat on. Mike Mularkey was a really good offensive coordinator, but the jury is still out on his head coaching ability. Look for the Jaguars to struggle mightily this year, and they could be on the clock for the 2013 Draft very early in 2012.

Prediction: 2-14 and last place in the AFC South

AFC West

1) San Diego Chargers
What I Like: You have to expect Philip Rivers to play at a high level all season long this year. He had some ups and downs last year, but Rivers is a big-time player, and he will carry this offense all year long. Although Ryan Matthews suffered an injury early in the preseason, he should be a big weapon in the run game. They lost Vincent Jackson to free agency and Vincent Brown was injured in their second preseason game, but they added Robert Meachem and Eddie Royal in free agency. Those two should help complement a passing game that features Antonio Gates and Malcolm Floyd. The addition of Jarret Johnson in free agency and Melvin Ingram in the draft should be able to bolster their defense and pass rush. Ingram could be a real impact rookie. This roster might not have the talent that it had three years ago, but it is still a good team. The Chargers know that this is a do or die year for HC Norv Turner, and I think they respond with a big season and another AFC West title.

What I Don't Like: Is their offensive line going to hold up? They lost their best lineman, OG Kris Dielman, to retirement, and they are banking on Jared Gaither at LT. If they have problems on offense, it will be a result of a leaky offensive line. Their front seven is young and unproven at spots. Can Shaun Phillips sustain his high level of play? What will they get out of LB Takeo Spikes? They have to face off against the AFC North and NFC South. As much as I like the Chargers, the pressure will be on them all season long, and if they falter at any point, everyone is going to be calling for Turner to be fired.

Prediction: 10-6 and winners of the AFC West

2) Denver Broncos
What I Like: When you add a quarterback like Peyton Manning, you entire organization gets better the moment he enters the building. If Manning is healthy, then this Broncos offense will be very difficult to stop. I'm sure he will be rusty and it will take some time for him to adjust to his receivers, but after watching Manning in preseason, I have no doubt they he will play at a really high level this year. He might not be 100%, but if he is at 90%, then he is still better than most of the quarterbacks in the NFL. I love the fact that so many experts have predicted an 8-8 type of season from Denver. That plays right into their hands. You have to love the additions of Tight Ends Jacob Tamme and Joel Dreesen. Young receivers like Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker should flourish with Manning at the helm. The Broncos want to be balanced, and Willis McGahee will give them that in the run game. Look for RB Ronnie Hillman to play a major role on 3rd down in this offense too. With Manning at QB, the Broncos can get an early lead on offense and help out their defense tremendously. With a lead, Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller can tee off on opposing quarterbacks. Also, don't forget about Champ Bailey and a rebuilt secondary with the additions of CBs Tracy Porter and Drayton Florence and Safety Mike Adams. John Fox is a very solid head coach, and the addition of Jack Del Rio as defensive coordinator should help the defense continue to improve. Overall, the Broncos got a once in a lifetime opportunity to get Peyton Manning, and he should be able to get this Broncos team back into the playoffs once again.

What I Don't Like: Of course you have to be concerned about Manning's health all year. They lost OG Chris Kuper to an injured forearm, and he will miss at least the first three games of the year. Their best inside linebacker, D.J. Williams, will be suspended for the first six games of the season. Losing DT Broderick Bunkley to free agency will really hurt their front seven. How will that group hold up against the run all year long? Their schedule is absolutely brutal. Here are their first six games: home against Pittsburgh, at Atlanta, home against Houston and Oakland, at New England, and at San Diego. They is a really tough slate to start the season. Their depth is really a concern, and it will be hard for them to compete for a playoff berth if they suffer a lot injuries during the year.

Prediction: 10-6 and a Wild Card berth

3) Kansas City Chiefs
What I Like: They got rid of Todd Haley, so their overall team leadership should be a lot better. They get three key players who missed basically all of last season: Tony Moeaki, Jamaal Charles, and Eric Berry. Their roster is loaded with a lot of young talent on both sides of the ball. You know that new head coach Romeo Crennel will put together a solid defensive game plan every week. The additions of OT Eric Winston and RB Peyton Hillis should definitely help out their offense. In addition to Berry, they have impact players like Derrick Johnson, Tamba Hali, and Brandon Flowers on their defense. Did I mention that this team has a ton of talent?

What I Don't Like: The two most important pieces for a team to be successful are the coach and the quarterback. The Chiefs have major question marks surrounding those two spots. Crennel has proven to be a great defensive coordinator, but he was a terrible head coach in Cleveland. Maybe his second turn as a head coach will be different, but I'm not sold on him yet. Matt Cassel struggled a lot last year, and I'm not convinced that he is going to be the guy to lead this team to the playoffs. They added Brian Daboll as offensive coordinator, but did you see Daboll's offensive units in Cleveland and Miami? They were pretty bad. Their schedule is very tough. Their first give games include home games against Atlanta, San Diego, and Baltimore and road games at Buffalo and New Orleans. They have to head to San Diego and Pittsburgh back-to-back weeks in November, and they finish with three out of their last four games on the road. The Chiefs will be competitive and in the playoff mix for most of the year, but I think they fall short in the end.

Prediction: 8-8 and third place in the AFC West

4) Oakland Raiders
What I Like: New head coach Dennis Allen will bring a new attitude to Oakland. Allen could be a star as a head coach very soon. Carson Palmer should benefit from being with them for a full season. They have weapons at receiver with Darrius Heyward-Bey, Denarius Moore, and Jacoby Ford. If Darren McFadden stays healthy, he could easily win the rushing title. Their defense was so bad last year, so Allen should be able to help that unit out immediately. Guys like Richard Seymour, Tommy Kelly, Lamarr Houston, Tyvon Branch, and Rolando McClain should all help this defense improve from their performance in 2011. This team is not afraid of the other teams in their division. They won all three road games in their division last year.

What I Don't Like: Palmer struggled at times last year, and you have to wonder if he is past his prime. They didn't add any real impact players in free agency, and they didn't draft until the third round this past April. The Raiders are always undisciplined, so you constantly have to worry about them shooting themselves in the foot week-to-week. Also, they are going through an organizational transformation with the death of Al Davis and new GM Reggie McKenzie. It is going to take some time for them to rebuild their entire program. They will be tough to beat every week, but they might be a year away.

Prediction: 7-9 and last in the AFC West.

*Quick Review*
AFC East
1) New England (11-5)
2) Buffalo (9-7) Wild Card
3) NY Jets (8-8)
4) Miami (5-11)

AFC North
1) Pittsburgh (11-5)
2) Baltimore (8-8)
3) Cincy (7-9)
4) Cleveland (5-11)

AFC South
1) Tennessee (9-7)
2) Houston (8-8)
3) Indy (8-8)
4) Jacksonville (2-14)

AFC West
1) San Diego (10-6)
2) Denver (10-6) Wild Card
3) Kansas City (8-8)
4) Oakland (7-9)

Playoff Predictions
Wild Card Round
(3) San Diego over (6) Buffalo (The Chargers win their first playoff game since 2008)
(5) Denver over (4) Tennessee (Manning returns to Tennessee and sticks it to the Titans once again)

Divisional Round
(1) New England over (5) Denver (Brady and Manning meet up once again the playoffs, and the Pats hold them off in a classic shootout)
(2) Pittsburgh over (3) San Diego (The Steelers head back to the AFC Championship Game for the second time in three years)

AFC Championship
(1) New England over (2) Pittsburgh (The Pats get to their second straight Super Bowl, and their sixth in the Brady-Belichick Era)

SUPER BOWL XLVII
New England over Green Bay (If the NFL can't get a Manning Bowl in New Orleans, they will settle for the next best thing: Pats-Packers. Brady and Belichick get their elusive fourth ring together)