Week 10 Picks!

It is always amazing how fast the NFL season goes. We are already at the halfway point, and most of the league has played at least eight games, and some teams are at nine. It goes so fast that it is hard to believe that we can already start to map out the playoff picture. Here is what you need to know about both conferences as we head into the crucial games of November. In the AFC, the real drama will be for the 6th spot and the final wild card. You figure New England will take the East, Indy will take the South, and Denver and KC will split the West and one of the wild card spots. At this point, Cincy looks like it will take the North, but watch out for Cleveland and even Baltimore. You can't kill those teams off just yet. The real drama will come down to these four teams for one wild card spot: the Jets, Tennessee, San Diego, and Miami. The Jets have a pretty favorable slate of games down the stretch, while the Titans still have two games against Indy and one against Denver. The Chargers still have two with Denver and two with the Chiefs. The Dolphins can make up ground with two games against the Jets, and NE at home, but with everything surrounding the Dolphins right now, they might just implode the rest of the way.

In the NFC, you figure that New Orleans will take the South, Seattle and SF will split the West and one of the wild cards, and either Dallas or somehow Philly will take the East. That leaves us with the NFC North winner and the second wild card still up for grabs. The North will be decided between three teams (Detroit, Chicago, and Green Bay). If Aaron Rodgers can get back from his collarbone injury in 3-4 weeks, then they will probably end up winning the division. The Bears are tough to figure out, and you really can't trust them week-to-week. The Lions look like the safest bet right now. The other wild card could come down to one of the North teams that loses out on the division title, the surging Panthers, and even the Arizona Cardinals. The Panthers look like the team that could take that last wild card spot, but they haven't beaten anyone good yet, and they still have to play at SF, the Jets, and two games with the Saints. If you are a fan of exciting, meaningful games in November and December, then  focus on those teams and watch what unfolds from there. It always is fun as we get closer to Thanksgiving.

Onto the picks for Week 10.......

Last Week's Record: 10-3
Overall Record: 70-59-6
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

TENNESSEE (-13) over Jacksonville: At 4-4, the Titans are quietly making a run at the wild card spot in the AFC. You can't take the Jags here. The Titans will take care of business at home easily.

GREEN BAY (-1) over Philly: You can't trust the Eagles. I know Nick Foles threw 7 touchdowns over the Raiders last week, but I'm still not sold on Foles or the Eagles offense. I know Aaron Rodgers is out, and the Packers are starting Seneca Wallace. If there is a team that can somehow overcome injuries, it is the Packers. I know Rodgers is so valuable to that team, but I have a feeling that the Pack will find a way to win this game.

PITTSBURGH (-3) over Buffalo: I know that E.J. Manuel is back, and Buffalo will be a trendy pick this week, but I would be surprised if the Steelers don't come out and play well this week. Look for the Steelers to bounce back after getting trounced at New England last week.

Oakland (+7) over NY GIANTS: I know it is hard to take the Raiders going all the way to the East coast to beat the Giants. I know the Raiders defense got destroyed by the Eagles last week at home, but I have a feeling that they will play a competitive game. Watch out for the Raiders this week.

INDY (-8) over St. Louis: The Colts win over the Texans last week might have been another significant game in a season of memorable wins for Indy. Down 24-6, late in the third quarter, Andrew Luck and the Colts rallied back to win the game 27-24. I can't see how the Rams and Kellen Clemens are going to go into Indy and beat the Colts. Look for the Colts to get to 7-2.

ATLANTA (+6) over Seattle: It has been a nightmare season for the Falcons, and they now stand at 2-6. Seattle comes in after a big comeback win over Tampa Bay at home. I have a feeling that the Seahawks will have a little bit of a letdown this week, and I think the Falcons will play very hard at home. Look for a close game, and a late Falcon win.

BALTIMORE (+2) over Cincy: The Bengals lost Geno Atkins and Leon Hall for the season, and they head to Baltimore at 6-3 and in the division lead. The Ravens have been humbled after their Super Bowl season from a year ago and limp in with a 3-5 record. I don't think the Ravens are dead yet. They have a proud coach and a proud team, and I think they take it to the Bengals this week at home and get to 4-5.

Detroit (PICK) over CHICAGO: I think the Lions are the frontrunners in the NFC North now that Aaron Rodgers got hurt. I don't trust the Bears, and I know they get Jay Cutler back this week, but I think the Lions are due for a big road win in Chicago. I really like what the Lions are doing on offense, and I think they find a way to win the game in what is probably the best game of the week.

SAN FRANCISCO (-6) over Carolina: I love how the Panthers have played the last four weeks, but they haven't really beaten anyone good. Both teams come in riding four-game winning streaks, but I think the 49ers are starting to hit their stride. This game will fun to watch, but look for San Fran to pull away late.

ARIZONA (-3) over Houston: The Texans are another disappointing team coming into this game at 2-6. They blew a 24-6 lead at home to Indy last week, and they lost their head coach, Gary Kubiak, to a mini-stroke. Anytime you have to replace your head coach with Wade Phillips, then that is certainly not a good thing. Quietly, the Cardinals are at 4-4 and in the middle of the NFC playoff chase. Look for Arizona to win a tight one at home.

NEW ORLEANS (-6) over Dallas: The difference between the Saints at home and on the road is pretty remarkable. They get the Cowboys coming to New Orleans on Sunday night in a huge game with playoff implications. I just can't see how Dallas is going to keep up with Drew Brees and the Saints offense all night.

TAMPA BAY (+3) over Miami: What a crummy Monday Night Football game this turned out to be. The Bucs were the franchise in disarray for the first eight weeks of the NFL season, but they are now replaced by the Dolphins as the franchise that is most fucked up in the NFL. With all the chaos surrounding the Fish, Jonathan Martin and Richie Incognito, I smell an upset with the Bucs getting their  first victory of the year.

SAN DIEGO (+7) over Denver: The Chargers need this game after their awful loss in overtime to the Redskins last week. At 4-4, San Diego has a chance to make a run at the playoffs. This is an enormous game for them. Up until the last two years, Phillip Rivers owned the Broncos. Now, he has the luxury of being coached by Mike McCoy, who spent last season as Peyton Manning's offensive coordinator in Denver. I definitely think that will help them. The Broncos come off the bye week at 7-1, but they have a lot of adversity they have to deal with. John Fox is out indefinitely after undergoing heart surgery, and Jack Del Rio is the Broncos interim head coach. I just don't know how the Broncos are going to respond with Fox out. The other key is that the Broncos are still banged up. We don't know how healthy Manning is with two ankle sprains, and it looks like Duke Ihenacho and Champ Bailey are both going to be out of the lineup for this game. The Broncos always have trouble in San Diego, and Rivers always plays well against them. Remember, Denver trailed 24-0 last year at halftime in San Diego before Manning orchestrated that epic comeback. This line is just way too high. I think the Chargers win the game outright.

Final Score: Chargers-30 Broncos-27