The marquee game of the season is upon us as the 9-0 Kansas City Chiefs head into Denver to take on the Broncos. It is a great matchup of two division rivals with great records so late in the year. The rivalry between these two teams dates back all the way to the original AFL Western Division days. People nationally don't realize how good of a rivalry this is. It is underrated because both teams haven't been a contender in the same season together in a long time. As a Broncos fan my whole life, I really despised the Chiefs more than the Raiders. The reason why is because the Chiefs were always more of a threat to Denver's AFC West hopes than the Raiders were for the majority of the John Elway era. How good is this rivalry? Well, think about this: In 1994, NFL Films released a VHS tape called "John Elway's Greatest Comebacks." It was a great montage of some of Elway's greatest moments in the fourth quarter. The team that was victimized the most by Elway and all those comebacks: The Chiefs. The most improbable of Elway's comebacks was in 1992. The Broncos were down 19-6 with just over two minutes left in the game at the old Mile High. Elway threw two touchdowns passes in the final two minutes to shock the Chiefs 20-19. Later that year, the Broncos were 8-7 and facing the Chiefs in a winner take all AFC West showdown in the last game of the year at Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs blitzed Denver and won the division. Denver missed the playoffs as a result and fired head coach Dan Reeves shortly after. That is usually how it goes with this rivalry. The Broncos win in Denver, and the Chiefs win in Arrowhead. One team wins the first game, and the other team gets revenge in the rematch. In 1997, Denver opened the season at home with a 19-3 win over the Chiefs. The two teams met in Week 11 with the Broncos at 9-1 and the Chiefs at 7-3. The Chiefs won on a Pete Stoyanovich 54 yard field goal at the buzzer to win the game 24-22. That game propelled the Chiefs to the AFC West crown, and the Broncos settled for the wild card. In the Divisional playoffs that year, the two teams met again. Denver won a tough, grind-it-out type of game 14-10 and it propelled Denver to their first Super Bowl title. In 2003, both teams were 4-0 when they met in Week 5. It was the game of the year at that point in the season. Denver led the Chiefs 23-17 when Dante Hall took a punt 93 yards on the 4th quarter for a touchdown as KC won 24-23. I can still see the three block in the backs that weren't called on Hall's return by the way. Naturally, Denver got revenge later in the year with the help of Clinton Portis' five rushing touchdowns en route to a 45-27 win in Denver. This rivalry hasn't really seen a big-time game like that since that year. In 2011, the Broncos and Tim Tebow shocked the Chiefs 17-7 in Arrowhead in a game where Tim Tebow completed on 2 passes. The Chiefs got revenge in Week 17 when Kyle Orton returned to Denver to help them knock off the Broncos. This game will be fun to watch, and it does lose a little because they play in Arrowhead in two weeks, but it is nice to have the Chiefs and Broncos battle it out once again with the AFC West on the line in one of the biggest games on the NFL calendar. I'll save my pick for later in the column. Onto the rest of the picks for Week 11....
Last Week's Record: 6-7-1
Overall Record: 76-66-7
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)
Atlanta (PICK) over TAMPA BAY: The Falcons have to win a game again at some point right?
NY JETS (-1) over Buffalo: The Bills are all banged up on offense, and the Jets have that "6th Seed" look to them right now. Take the Jets and the low number on the road.
Detroit (-2) over PITTSBURGH: The Steelers are done for 2013, and now you have rumors of Big Ben leaving town after the season. The Lions are the better team, so I'll stick with them once again.
Washington (+5) over PHILLY: The Eagles really stink at home. They haven't won a home game since early last season. Until they prove otherwise, I'll go against them again at home.
San Diego (-1) over MIAMI: The Dolphins season got destroyed by the whole Martin-Incognito saga. At 4-5, they are reeling and come off a loss to the Bucs on Monday night. The Chargers are the better team, and I look for them to take care of business on the road this week.
Baltimore (+4) over CHICAGO: I don't like what I see out of the Bears right now. Jay Cutler is out, and I know that Josh McCown has played well in his absence, but he still is Josh McCown. I like the Ravens in this spot as an underdog.
CINCY (-6) over Cleveland: I would be shocked if the Bengals lose this game. I am not buying into the 4-5 Browns making a playoff run at all. Take the Bengals at home.
HOUSTON (-7) over Oakland: The Raiders have to travel two weeks in a row to another time zone, and Terrelle Pryor might be out. The Texans are in disarray, but I think they break their 7 game losing streak this week at home.
Arizona (-7) over JACKSONVILLE: The Jags finally got a win last week over the Titans, but here come the Cards. Quietly, the Cards are 5-4 and are playing good football. They could be in play for the 6 seed in the NFC. I'm sticking with them again this week.
Minnesota (+13) over SEATTLE: The Seahawks will win this game, but I think the Vikings keep it close. Can the Vikings just admit that Christian Ponder isn't that bad and gives them the best chance to win? Give the kid a break. Seattle hasn't really played that great lately either.
NEW ORLEANS (-3) over San Francisco: The Niners passing game looked pretty awful last week. I think the 49ers will be okay and make the playoffs, but this week is a tough spot for them. We know how good the Saints are at home, and I think they continue to make their claim as the frontrunner in the NFC.
Green Bay (+5) over NY GIANTS: The G-men are just not that good. Even at home with the Packers coming in without Aaron Rodgers, I just can't trust the Giants. Don't be surprised if Green Bay wins the game outright.
CAROLINA (-2) over New England: We finally get a really good Monday night game. Fascinating matchup, and you have to love how well the Panthers on playing on defense. This is the biggest game in Carolina since the 2008 season when they won the NFC South. Take the Panthers and that defense at home in front of a raucous crowd.
Kansas City at Denver: We all know the key to this game. Can the stout KC defense shut down the Broncos offense and a gimpy Peyton Manning? We know how the Chiefs can rush the passer and how much Denver has had trouble protecting Manning lately, but don't you think the Broncos spent all week looking at that too. Don't you think Denver and Manning will have something up their sleeve? A lot of people are picking the Chiefs to keep it close or win it outright, but you know what? Fuck that! I'm going with the "Sheriff" and the Broncos at home on Sunday Night Football to make a statement. I'm taking the Broncos and not looking back.
DENVER (-7) over Kansas City
Final Score: Denver-30 KC-17
Friday, November 15, 2013
Thursday, November 14, 2013
TNF Pick!
Indy (-3) over TENNESSEE: The Colts are coming off an awful loss to the Rams at home. The Titans lost at home to the hapless Jaguars. In the process, the Titans lost QB Jake Locker for the season with a foot injury. This will be a close game because the Colts are on the road on a Thursday, but look for the following to occur late in the fourth quarter: Andrew Luck will make one or two plays to give his team the lead, and Titans quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick will throw at least one killer interception to end the Titans hopes for a comeback win.
Tuesday, November 12, 2013
Broncos Get Key Win over San Diego
The Broncos were able to hold off a San Diego comeback and get a key divisional game victory on Sunday 28-20. The Broncos now stand at 8-1, and they head into their huge AFC West game at home vs. the 9-0 Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday night. Denver's victory over the Chargers will be remembered for the injury that Peyton Manning sustained to his right ankle. It is the same ankle that has bothered him for quite some time. This time the injured was aggravated late in the game as the Broncos were trying to run out the clock and win the game. Outside of the injury, the Broncos played a pretty up and down game. They scored a touchdown three plays into the game, and they scored on three consecutive possessions before the half and right after the half. At 28-6, the Broncos looked like they were on cruise control, but the game swung on a strip sack of Peyton Manning in the 3rd quarter, and the Chargers were able to get back into the game. Thankfully, the Broncos were able to hold on and run out the clock late, and Denver got their eighth win of the year. Here are my thoughts and observations on this week's game...
1) San Diego's first drive was killed by a holding call on Ryan Matthews big run. Holding calls absolutely kill drives, and this was a killer for the Chargers to start the game.
2) Peyton Manning hit Julius Thomas in the flat, and Thomas goes 74 yards down the sideline for a touchdown three plays into Denver's first possession. Manning has killed teams the last two years on those passes in the flat and this one was another example of that.
3) Huge stop by Denver's defense on a 3rd and 2 on the Chargers second drive to hold them to a field goal and a 7-3 lead.
4) The Denver defense made key stops on third down throughout the entire first half.
5) Big throw by Manning to Eric Decker down the sideline for 34 yards in the second quarter. Manning followed up that throw with a perfect throw to Demaryius Thomas for a touchdown on an out route. Manning threw the ball before Thomas was even in his break, and it gave him enough time to have room to run and stretch the ball over the goaline for a 14-6 lead.
6) Here was the big sequence in the game: The Broncos get a big sack by Derek Wolfe on a 3rd down deep in Denver territory. Then, Nick Novak missed a short 37 yard field goal. Denver then comes down and gets a score. Manning hit Demaryius Thomas on a beautiful ball down the sideline, and he followed it up with a perfect pass to Thomas for a touchdown to make it 21-6 right before the half. Thomas ran a great route where he faked doing an out route and cut back inside and the ball was right on the money.
7) Right out of halftime, Denver came right back down and got another touchdown to make it 28-6. Manning hit Demaryius Thomas on one of those classic WR screens that they run every week. Thomas weaved his way 34 yards for a touchdown to give the Broncos what looked like a insurmountable lead at the time.
8) The play that turned this game around was when Manning was strip sacked and fumbled deep in Denver territory. San Diego scored on the ensuing drive and cut the lead to 28-13. I felt that Denver went into a little bit of shell on offense after that, and they got really sloppy with their execution at that point.
9) Shaun Phillips continued to play big for Denver, and he got a big sack of Rivers late in the third quarter to thwart a drive.
10) Denver's defense played well, but they gave up some horrible passes in the fourth quarter. On a 3rd and 13, they let Eddie Royal get behind them and the Chargers converted that possession into a touchdown to cut the lead to 28-20 with 10:42 to go. At this point, I became extremely nervous that Denver was going to blow this one.
11) The Broncos were able to grind out at least two first downs on the next series. Give Knowshon Moreno credit because he continues to run hard and effectively every week. It looked like Decker got held on a key third down incompletion, and Denver was forced to punt and give the ball back to SD with 4:45 to go.
12) Von Miller made the play of the game with a huge, diving sack of Phillip Rivers on a 2nd and 13. Miller played really well in the game, and he was really dominant in the run game. That sack set up a 3rd and 16, and Rahim Moore made a big-time hit to break up a pass and force a punt.
13) Give the Broncos offense credit for going for the win and being proactive to get the first down and win the game with Manning. Manning hit Demaryius Thomas for a first down pass to ice the game with 1:45 to go. On that play, Manning got hit low and re-injured his ankle. It looks like he will play this week against KC, but the ankle looks tender and it will be an issue going forward for Manning and the Broncos.
14) It was the first time all year that Denver didn't get 30 points in a game. They were held to 28, but they still were able to hold on and get a big win on the road against a division rival. Their defense made the stops that they needed to make, and this was a good win overall. Hopefully, Manning can sustain this injury and continue to play well as the Broncos march down the stretch. Next week, the Broncos host the Chiefs in the biggest game of the season in the NFL. 9-0 KC comes to Denver to take on the 8-1 Broncos in the matchup of the year.
1) San Diego's first drive was killed by a holding call on Ryan Matthews big run. Holding calls absolutely kill drives, and this was a killer for the Chargers to start the game.
2) Peyton Manning hit Julius Thomas in the flat, and Thomas goes 74 yards down the sideline for a touchdown three plays into Denver's first possession. Manning has killed teams the last two years on those passes in the flat and this one was another example of that.
3) Huge stop by Denver's defense on a 3rd and 2 on the Chargers second drive to hold them to a field goal and a 7-3 lead.
4) The Denver defense made key stops on third down throughout the entire first half.
5) Big throw by Manning to Eric Decker down the sideline for 34 yards in the second quarter. Manning followed up that throw with a perfect throw to Demaryius Thomas for a touchdown on an out route. Manning threw the ball before Thomas was even in his break, and it gave him enough time to have room to run and stretch the ball over the goaline for a 14-6 lead.
6) Here was the big sequence in the game: The Broncos get a big sack by Derek Wolfe on a 3rd down deep in Denver territory. Then, Nick Novak missed a short 37 yard field goal. Denver then comes down and gets a score. Manning hit Demaryius Thomas on a beautiful ball down the sideline, and he followed it up with a perfect pass to Thomas for a touchdown to make it 21-6 right before the half. Thomas ran a great route where he faked doing an out route and cut back inside and the ball was right on the money.
7) Right out of halftime, Denver came right back down and got another touchdown to make it 28-6. Manning hit Demaryius Thomas on one of those classic WR screens that they run every week. Thomas weaved his way 34 yards for a touchdown to give the Broncos what looked like a insurmountable lead at the time.
8) The play that turned this game around was when Manning was strip sacked and fumbled deep in Denver territory. San Diego scored on the ensuing drive and cut the lead to 28-13. I felt that Denver went into a little bit of shell on offense after that, and they got really sloppy with their execution at that point.
9) Shaun Phillips continued to play big for Denver, and he got a big sack of Rivers late in the third quarter to thwart a drive.
10) Denver's defense played well, but they gave up some horrible passes in the fourth quarter. On a 3rd and 13, they let Eddie Royal get behind them and the Chargers converted that possession into a touchdown to cut the lead to 28-20 with 10:42 to go. At this point, I became extremely nervous that Denver was going to blow this one.
11) The Broncos were able to grind out at least two first downs on the next series. Give Knowshon Moreno credit because he continues to run hard and effectively every week. It looked like Decker got held on a key third down incompletion, and Denver was forced to punt and give the ball back to SD with 4:45 to go.
12) Von Miller made the play of the game with a huge, diving sack of Phillip Rivers on a 2nd and 13. Miller played really well in the game, and he was really dominant in the run game. That sack set up a 3rd and 16, and Rahim Moore made a big-time hit to break up a pass and force a punt.
13) Give the Broncos offense credit for going for the win and being proactive to get the first down and win the game with Manning. Manning hit Demaryius Thomas for a first down pass to ice the game with 1:45 to go. On that play, Manning got hit low and re-injured his ankle. It looks like he will play this week against KC, but the ankle looks tender and it will be an issue going forward for Manning and the Broncos.
14) It was the first time all year that Denver didn't get 30 points in a game. They were held to 28, but they still were able to hold on and get a big win on the road against a division rival. Their defense made the stops that they needed to make, and this was a good win overall. Hopefully, Manning can sustain this injury and continue to play well as the Broncos march down the stretch. Next week, the Broncos host the Chiefs in the biggest game of the season in the NFL. 9-0 KC comes to Denver to take on the 8-1 Broncos in the matchup of the year.
Friday, November 8, 2013
Week 10 Picks!
It is always amazing how fast the NFL season goes. We are already at the halfway point, and most of the league has played at least eight games, and some teams are at nine. It goes so fast that it is hard to believe that we can already start to map out the playoff picture. Here is what you need to know about both conferences as we head into the crucial games of November. In the AFC, the real drama will be for the 6th spot and the final wild card. You figure New England will take the East, Indy will take the South, and Denver and KC will split the West and one of the wild card spots. At this point, Cincy looks like it will take the North, but watch out for Cleveland and even Baltimore. You can't kill those teams off just yet. The real drama will come down to these four teams for one wild card spot: the Jets, Tennessee, San Diego, and Miami. The Jets have a pretty favorable slate of games down the stretch, while the Titans still have two games against Indy and one against Denver. The Chargers still have two with Denver and two with the Chiefs. The Dolphins can make up ground with two games against the Jets, and NE at home, but with everything surrounding the Dolphins right now, they might just implode the rest of the way.
In the NFC, you figure that New Orleans will take the South, Seattle and SF will split the West and one of the wild cards, and either Dallas or somehow Philly will take the East. That leaves us with the NFC North winner and the second wild card still up for grabs. The North will be decided between three teams (Detroit, Chicago, and Green Bay). If Aaron Rodgers can get back from his collarbone injury in 3-4 weeks, then they will probably end up winning the division. The Bears are tough to figure out, and you really can't trust them week-to-week. The Lions look like the safest bet right now. The other wild card could come down to one of the North teams that loses out on the division title, the surging Panthers, and even the Arizona Cardinals. The Panthers look like the team that could take that last wild card spot, but they haven't beaten anyone good yet, and they still have to play at SF, the Jets, and two games with the Saints. If you are a fan of exciting, meaningful games in November and December, then focus on those teams and watch what unfolds from there. It always is fun as we get closer to Thanksgiving.
Onto the picks for Week 10.......
Last Week's Record: 10-3
Overall Record: 70-59-6
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)
TENNESSEE (-13) over Jacksonville: At 4-4, the Titans are quietly making a run at the wild card spot in the AFC. You can't take the Jags here. The Titans will take care of business at home easily.
GREEN BAY (-1) over Philly: You can't trust the Eagles. I know Nick Foles threw 7 touchdowns over the Raiders last week, but I'm still not sold on Foles or the Eagles offense. I know Aaron Rodgers is out, and the Packers are starting Seneca Wallace. If there is a team that can somehow overcome injuries, it is the Packers. I know Rodgers is so valuable to that team, but I have a feeling that the Pack will find a way to win this game.
PITTSBURGH (-3) over Buffalo: I know that E.J. Manuel is back, and Buffalo will be a trendy pick this week, but I would be surprised if the Steelers don't come out and play well this week. Look for the Steelers to bounce back after getting trounced at New England last week.
Oakland (+7) over NY GIANTS: I know it is hard to take the Raiders going all the way to the East coast to beat the Giants. I know the Raiders defense got destroyed by the Eagles last week at home, but I have a feeling that they will play a competitive game. Watch out for the Raiders this week.
INDY (-8) over St. Louis: The Colts win over the Texans last week might have been another significant game in a season of memorable wins for Indy. Down 24-6, late in the third quarter, Andrew Luck and the Colts rallied back to win the game 27-24. I can't see how the Rams and Kellen Clemens are going to go into Indy and beat the Colts. Look for the Colts to get to 7-2.
ATLANTA (+6) over Seattle: It has been a nightmare season for the Falcons, and they now stand at 2-6. Seattle comes in after a big comeback win over Tampa Bay at home. I have a feeling that the Seahawks will have a little bit of a letdown this week, and I think the Falcons will play very hard at home. Look for a close game, and a late Falcon win.
BALTIMORE (+2) over Cincy: The Bengals lost Geno Atkins and Leon Hall for the season, and they head to Baltimore at 6-3 and in the division lead. The Ravens have been humbled after their Super Bowl season from a year ago and limp in with a 3-5 record. I don't think the Ravens are dead yet. They have a proud coach and a proud team, and I think they take it to the Bengals this week at home and get to 4-5.
Detroit (PICK) over CHICAGO: I think the Lions are the frontrunners in the NFC North now that Aaron Rodgers got hurt. I don't trust the Bears, and I know they get Jay Cutler back this week, but I think the Lions are due for a big road win in Chicago. I really like what the Lions are doing on offense, and I think they find a way to win the game in what is probably the best game of the week.
SAN FRANCISCO (-6) over Carolina: I love how the Panthers have played the last four weeks, but they haven't really beaten anyone good. Both teams come in riding four-game winning streaks, but I think the 49ers are starting to hit their stride. This game will fun to watch, but look for San Fran to pull away late.
ARIZONA (-3) over Houston: The Texans are another disappointing team coming into this game at 2-6. They blew a 24-6 lead at home to Indy last week, and they lost their head coach, Gary Kubiak, to a mini-stroke. Anytime you have to replace your head coach with Wade Phillips, then that is certainly not a good thing. Quietly, the Cardinals are at 4-4 and in the middle of the NFC playoff chase. Look for Arizona to win a tight one at home.
NEW ORLEANS (-6) over Dallas: The difference between the Saints at home and on the road is pretty remarkable. They get the Cowboys coming to New Orleans on Sunday night in a huge game with playoff implications. I just can't see how Dallas is going to keep up with Drew Brees and the Saints offense all night.
TAMPA BAY (+3) over Miami: What a crummy Monday Night Football game this turned out to be. The Bucs were the franchise in disarray for the first eight weeks of the NFL season, but they are now replaced by the Dolphins as the franchise that is most fucked up in the NFL. With all the chaos surrounding the Fish, Jonathan Martin and Richie Incognito, I smell an upset with the Bucs getting their first victory of the year.
SAN DIEGO (+7) over Denver: The Chargers need this game after their awful loss in overtime to the Redskins last week. At 4-4, San Diego has a chance to make a run at the playoffs. This is an enormous game for them. Up until the last two years, Phillip Rivers owned the Broncos. Now, he has the luxury of being coached by Mike McCoy, who spent last season as Peyton Manning's offensive coordinator in Denver. I definitely think that will help them. The Broncos come off the bye week at 7-1, but they have a lot of adversity they have to deal with. John Fox is out indefinitely after undergoing heart surgery, and Jack Del Rio is the Broncos interim head coach. I just don't know how the Broncos are going to respond with Fox out. The other key is that the Broncos are still banged up. We don't know how healthy Manning is with two ankle sprains, and it looks like Duke Ihenacho and Champ Bailey are both going to be out of the lineup for this game. The Broncos always have trouble in San Diego, and Rivers always plays well against them. Remember, Denver trailed 24-0 last year at halftime in San Diego before Manning orchestrated that epic comeback. This line is just way too high. I think the Chargers win the game outright.
Final Score: Chargers-30 Broncos-27
In the NFC, you figure that New Orleans will take the South, Seattle and SF will split the West and one of the wild cards, and either Dallas or somehow Philly will take the East. That leaves us with the NFC North winner and the second wild card still up for grabs. The North will be decided between three teams (Detroit, Chicago, and Green Bay). If Aaron Rodgers can get back from his collarbone injury in 3-4 weeks, then they will probably end up winning the division. The Bears are tough to figure out, and you really can't trust them week-to-week. The Lions look like the safest bet right now. The other wild card could come down to one of the North teams that loses out on the division title, the surging Panthers, and even the Arizona Cardinals. The Panthers look like the team that could take that last wild card spot, but they haven't beaten anyone good yet, and they still have to play at SF, the Jets, and two games with the Saints. If you are a fan of exciting, meaningful games in November and December, then focus on those teams and watch what unfolds from there. It always is fun as we get closer to Thanksgiving.
Onto the picks for Week 10.......
Last Week's Record: 10-3
Overall Record: 70-59-6
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)
TENNESSEE (-13) over Jacksonville: At 4-4, the Titans are quietly making a run at the wild card spot in the AFC. You can't take the Jags here. The Titans will take care of business at home easily.
GREEN BAY (-1) over Philly: You can't trust the Eagles. I know Nick Foles threw 7 touchdowns over the Raiders last week, but I'm still not sold on Foles or the Eagles offense. I know Aaron Rodgers is out, and the Packers are starting Seneca Wallace. If there is a team that can somehow overcome injuries, it is the Packers. I know Rodgers is so valuable to that team, but I have a feeling that the Pack will find a way to win this game.
PITTSBURGH (-3) over Buffalo: I know that E.J. Manuel is back, and Buffalo will be a trendy pick this week, but I would be surprised if the Steelers don't come out and play well this week. Look for the Steelers to bounce back after getting trounced at New England last week.
Oakland (+7) over NY GIANTS: I know it is hard to take the Raiders going all the way to the East coast to beat the Giants. I know the Raiders defense got destroyed by the Eagles last week at home, but I have a feeling that they will play a competitive game. Watch out for the Raiders this week.
INDY (-8) over St. Louis: The Colts win over the Texans last week might have been another significant game in a season of memorable wins for Indy. Down 24-6, late in the third quarter, Andrew Luck and the Colts rallied back to win the game 27-24. I can't see how the Rams and Kellen Clemens are going to go into Indy and beat the Colts. Look for the Colts to get to 7-2.
ATLANTA (+6) over Seattle: It has been a nightmare season for the Falcons, and they now stand at 2-6. Seattle comes in after a big comeback win over Tampa Bay at home. I have a feeling that the Seahawks will have a little bit of a letdown this week, and I think the Falcons will play very hard at home. Look for a close game, and a late Falcon win.
BALTIMORE (+2) over Cincy: The Bengals lost Geno Atkins and Leon Hall for the season, and they head to Baltimore at 6-3 and in the division lead. The Ravens have been humbled after their Super Bowl season from a year ago and limp in with a 3-5 record. I don't think the Ravens are dead yet. They have a proud coach and a proud team, and I think they take it to the Bengals this week at home and get to 4-5.
Detroit (PICK) over CHICAGO: I think the Lions are the frontrunners in the NFC North now that Aaron Rodgers got hurt. I don't trust the Bears, and I know they get Jay Cutler back this week, but I think the Lions are due for a big road win in Chicago. I really like what the Lions are doing on offense, and I think they find a way to win the game in what is probably the best game of the week.
SAN FRANCISCO (-6) over Carolina: I love how the Panthers have played the last four weeks, but they haven't really beaten anyone good. Both teams come in riding four-game winning streaks, but I think the 49ers are starting to hit their stride. This game will fun to watch, but look for San Fran to pull away late.
ARIZONA (-3) over Houston: The Texans are another disappointing team coming into this game at 2-6. They blew a 24-6 lead at home to Indy last week, and they lost their head coach, Gary Kubiak, to a mini-stroke. Anytime you have to replace your head coach with Wade Phillips, then that is certainly not a good thing. Quietly, the Cardinals are at 4-4 and in the middle of the NFC playoff chase. Look for Arizona to win a tight one at home.
NEW ORLEANS (-6) over Dallas: The difference between the Saints at home and on the road is pretty remarkable. They get the Cowboys coming to New Orleans on Sunday night in a huge game with playoff implications. I just can't see how Dallas is going to keep up with Drew Brees and the Saints offense all night.
TAMPA BAY (+3) over Miami: What a crummy Monday Night Football game this turned out to be. The Bucs were the franchise in disarray for the first eight weeks of the NFL season, but they are now replaced by the Dolphins as the franchise that is most fucked up in the NFL. With all the chaos surrounding the Fish, Jonathan Martin and Richie Incognito, I smell an upset with the Bucs getting their first victory of the year.
SAN DIEGO (+7) over Denver: The Chargers need this game after their awful loss in overtime to the Redskins last week. At 4-4, San Diego has a chance to make a run at the playoffs. This is an enormous game for them. Up until the last two years, Phillip Rivers owned the Broncos. Now, he has the luxury of being coached by Mike McCoy, who spent last season as Peyton Manning's offensive coordinator in Denver. I definitely think that will help them. The Broncos come off the bye week at 7-1, but they have a lot of adversity they have to deal with. John Fox is out indefinitely after undergoing heart surgery, and Jack Del Rio is the Broncos interim head coach. I just don't know how the Broncos are going to respond with Fox out. The other key is that the Broncos are still banged up. We don't know how healthy Manning is with two ankle sprains, and it looks like Duke Ihenacho and Champ Bailey are both going to be out of the lineup for this game. The Broncos always have trouble in San Diego, and Rivers always plays well against them. Remember, Denver trailed 24-0 last year at halftime in San Diego before Manning orchestrated that epic comeback. This line is just way too high. I think the Chargers win the game outright.
Final Score: Chargers-30 Broncos-27
Thursday Night Pick
Washington (-2) over MINNESOTA: This is another awful matchup for NFL Network's Thursday Night Football game, and I can tell you one thing: I will be watching the big college game that night between Oregon and Stanford on ESPN instead of this turd. Take the Skins to get to 4-5 on the road.
Tuesday, November 5, 2013
Broncos At the Bye
Denver entered its bye week in Week 9 at the halfway point of the 2013 season. Denver was 7-1 at the bye, and they are currently in second place in the AFC West behind the 9-0 Kansas City Chiefs. Before the Broncos begin the second half of the season, let's go back and review the first half of the season with a little question and answer session to break it all down. Without further ado....
Where does this team's start (7-1) rank in recent memory?
This is the best start to a season at the halfway mark that Denver has had since the 1998 season when they started 8-0 on their way to a 14-2 season. Denver won the Super Bowl that year and actually started 13-0 before their first loss. In 2005, Denver started 6-2 and finished 13-3 and won the AFC West and advanced to the AFC Championship. In 1997, the Broncos started 7-1 and finished 12-4 on their way to their first Super Bowl title. In other Super Bowl years, the Broncos started 7-1 in 1986, 4-3-1 in 1987, and 6-2 in 1989. I'll leave out the 1977 season because they only played 14 games at that time in the NFL. In other notable seasons, the Broncos were 6-2 at the halfway point in 1991. That year they finished 12-4 and advanced all the way to the AFC Championship. In 1996, the Broncos started 7-1 on their way to a 13-3 finish, but they were upset by the Jaguars in the AFC Divisional Playoff. In 2003, Denver started 5-3 on a way to a 10-6 finish and a wild card berth. In 2004, they started 5-3 as well on their way to another 10-6 record and a playoff appearance. Last year, they started 5-3 and finished with 11 straight wins and a 13-3 record. In 2011, they started 3-5 and got caught up in Tebowmania and finished 8-8 and won the AFC West. You can't forget the 6-2 start in 2009 only to see them fall flat and finish 8-8 and out of the playoffs in Josh McDaniels first year in Denver. Overall, this is one the five best starts in recent memory. The other ones ended with a Super Bowl victory in 1997 and 1998. 1996 ended in their first playoff game, and in 1986 they lost in the Super Bowl. All of those starts suggest that history is at least on Denver's side with their 7-1 start.
What was the most memorable game of the first half for Denver?
This is a pretty easy one to pick: Denver-51 Dallas-48. Denver entered the game at 4-0 and the game was seen by virtually the entire nation in the late window on CBS in Week 5. Denver trailed 14-0 early, and rallied to take command of the game at halftime. It was a classic shootout between Manning and Tony Romo, and Danny Trevathan's interception of Romo setup Denver's game-winning field goal as time expired. It was one of the highest rated games of the year, and it was also one of the signature NFL games of the year as well.
What do think about this team's offense as we head into the second half of the year?
The Broncos offense is off to a record-breaking start. They have scored 343 points in eight games. They are averaging 42 points a game at this point. The least amount of points they have scored in a game is 33 points in the loss to Indy. Take away the 28 points that were scored on returns and defensive scores and the Broncos are still averaging 39 points a game. The passing game is ridiculous with Peyton Manning leading the league in passer rating (119.4) and has 29 touchdown passes at this point. Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, and Wes Welker are all on pace to get 1,000 yards receiving, and Julius Thomas is on pace for 900 yards too. Knowshon Moreno is the key because he is quietly having a tremendous year. Moreno has 456 yards on the ground and 8 touchdowns. If Moreno can keep it up, it will be huge for this offense. If Denver can be able to run the ball consistently, then it will be a very big factor in big games late in the year-especially when the weather turns cold. The biggest concerns for the Broncos on offense is health. The injury to Ryan Clady will be very crucial down the stretch. Can the Broncos get the pass protection and run game going effectively enough with Chris Clark at LT? It will be a big factor the next eight games. Also, the health of Manning is a huge deal. Manning was banged up going into the bye, and if he continues to struggle with his ankles, then this offense could struggle to get the ball vertical like they did the first six games.
Do you think the Broncos defense will continue to improve?
The signs are there that their defense will play better. They played their best game in their last game before the bye in the win over the Redskins. Getting Von Miller back after six games was the key, and he played really well in the win over Washington. We'll see when Champ Bailey returns, but it will certainly help this defense whenever he comes back. The addition of Dominique Rodger-Cromartie was a great move because he has played really well so far, and Chris Harris continues to be our best corner. Guys like Malik Jackson, Derek Wolfe, Wesley Woodyard, Duke Ihenacho, and Danny Trevathan have all played well in the first half, and they need to continue their stellar play in the second half. I think the Broncos defense has a lot of good football left in them the rest of the way.
Do the Broncos have what it takes to handle a pretty tough second half schedule?
This is the big stretch for the Denver. The next four weeks include at SD, home against KC, at New England, and at KC. They also finish their home schedule with games against Tennessee and San Diego on December 8th and Thursday December 12th. The Broncos final two games are at Houston and at Oakland. Both teams are not having great seasons, so there is a good chance that Denver could get those two games rather easily. It doesn't matter how the Broncos get in, but you really don't want them going in as a wild card. That would mean that they would have to win probably three straight road games in the playoffs, and with two road games to finish the season, that would mean Denver would have to win five straight road games to get to the Super Bowl. That doesn't seem likely.
What is the biggest result of the John Fox situation?
Unfortunately, Fox needed to get a heart valve replacement surgery on Monday and he will be out for several weeks. Some people believe Fox could be back in a month and others have written that it might keep him out for the rest of the regular season. Whatever the case, it isn't a good thing to lose your head coach midway through the season. The one thing about this is that Jack Del Rio steps in as the interim head coach, and he did a pretty good job when he was the head coach in Jacksonville. It is very valuable to have a guy like Del Rio on the staff, and I think he will do a good job while Fox is out. It could also be something that brings the team together and they could use it at a motivating factor like the Colts did when they lost Chuck Pagano to cancer last year.
Where does this team's start (7-1) rank in recent memory?
This is the best start to a season at the halfway mark that Denver has had since the 1998 season when they started 8-0 on their way to a 14-2 season. Denver won the Super Bowl that year and actually started 13-0 before their first loss. In 2005, Denver started 6-2 and finished 13-3 and won the AFC West and advanced to the AFC Championship. In 1997, the Broncos started 7-1 and finished 12-4 on their way to their first Super Bowl title. In other Super Bowl years, the Broncos started 7-1 in 1986, 4-3-1 in 1987, and 6-2 in 1989. I'll leave out the 1977 season because they only played 14 games at that time in the NFL. In other notable seasons, the Broncos were 6-2 at the halfway point in 1991. That year they finished 12-4 and advanced all the way to the AFC Championship. In 1996, the Broncos started 7-1 on their way to a 13-3 finish, but they were upset by the Jaguars in the AFC Divisional Playoff. In 2003, Denver started 5-3 on a way to a 10-6 finish and a wild card berth. In 2004, they started 5-3 as well on their way to another 10-6 record and a playoff appearance. Last year, they started 5-3 and finished with 11 straight wins and a 13-3 record. In 2011, they started 3-5 and got caught up in Tebowmania and finished 8-8 and won the AFC West. You can't forget the 6-2 start in 2009 only to see them fall flat and finish 8-8 and out of the playoffs in Josh McDaniels first year in Denver. Overall, this is one the five best starts in recent memory. The other ones ended with a Super Bowl victory in 1997 and 1998. 1996 ended in their first playoff game, and in 1986 they lost in the Super Bowl. All of those starts suggest that history is at least on Denver's side with their 7-1 start.
What was the most memorable game of the first half for Denver?
This is a pretty easy one to pick: Denver-51 Dallas-48. Denver entered the game at 4-0 and the game was seen by virtually the entire nation in the late window on CBS in Week 5. Denver trailed 14-0 early, and rallied to take command of the game at halftime. It was a classic shootout between Manning and Tony Romo, and Danny Trevathan's interception of Romo setup Denver's game-winning field goal as time expired. It was one of the highest rated games of the year, and it was also one of the signature NFL games of the year as well.
What do think about this team's offense as we head into the second half of the year?
The Broncos offense is off to a record-breaking start. They have scored 343 points in eight games. They are averaging 42 points a game at this point. The least amount of points they have scored in a game is 33 points in the loss to Indy. Take away the 28 points that were scored on returns and defensive scores and the Broncos are still averaging 39 points a game. The passing game is ridiculous with Peyton Manning leading the league in passer rating (119.4) and has 29 touchdown passes at this point. Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, and Wes Welker are all on pace to get 1,000 yards receiving, and Julius Thomas is on pace for 900 yards too. Knowshon Moreno is the key because he is quietly having a tremendous year. Moreno has 456 yards on the ground and 8 touchdowns. If Moreno can keep it up, it will be huge for this offense. If Denver can be able to run the ball consistently, then it will be a very big factor in big games late in the year-especially when the weather turns cold. The biggest concerns for the Broncos on offense is health. The injury to Ryan Clady will be very crucial down the stretch. Can the Broncos get the pass protection and run game going effectively enough with Chris Clark at LT? It will be a big factor the next eight games. Also, the health of Manning is a huge deal. Manning was banged up going into the bye, and if he continues to struggle with his ankles, then this offense could struggle to get the ball vertical like they did the first six games.
Do you think the Broncos defense will continue to improve?
The signs are there that their defense will play better. They played their best game in their last game before the bye in the win over the Redskins. Getting Von Miller back after six games was the key, and he played really well in the win over Washington. We'll see when Champ Bailey returns, but it will certainly help this defense whenever he comes back. The addition of Dominique Rodger-Cromartie was a great move because he has played really well so far, and Chris Harris continues to be our best corner. Guys like Malik Jackson, Derek Wolfe, Wesley Woodyard, Duke Ihenacho, and Danny Trevathan have all played well in the first half, and they need to continue their stellar play in the second half. I think the Broncos defense has a lot of good football left in them the rest of the way.
Do the Broncos have what it takes to handle a pretty tough second half schedule?
This is the big stretch for the Denver. The next four weeks include at SD, home against KC, at New England, and at KC. They also finish their home schedule with games against Tennessee and San Diego on December 8th and Thursday December 12th. The Broncos final two games are at Houston and at Oakland. Both teams are not having great seasons, so there is a good chance that Denver could get those two games rather easily. It doesn't matter how the Broncos get in, but you really don't want them going in as a wild card. That would mean that they would have to win probably three straight road games in the playoffs, and with two road games to finish the season, that would mean Denver would have to win five straight road games to get to the Super Bowl. That doesn't seem likely.
What is the biggest result of the John Fox situation?
Unfortunately, Fox needed to get a heart valve replacement surgery on Monday and he will be out for several weeks. Some people believe Fox could be back in a month and others have written that it might keep him out for the rest of the regular season. Whatever the case, it isn't a good thing to lose your head coach midway through the season. The one thing about this is that Jack Del Rio steps in as the interim head coach, and he did a pretty good job when he was the head coach in Jacksonville. It is very valuable to have a guy like Del Rio on the staff, and I think he will do a good job while Fox is out. It could also be something that brings the team together and they could use it at a motivating factor like the Colts did when they lost Chuck Pagano to cancer last year.
Sunday, November 3, 2013
Week 9 Picks
Last Week's Record: 6-7
Overall Record: 60-56-6
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)
CAROLINA (-7) over Atlanta:
Minnesota (+11) over DALLAS:
NY JETS (+6) over New Orleans:
Tennessee (-3) over ST.LOUIS:
Kansas City (-2) over BUFFALO:
WASHINGTON (+2) over San Diego:
Philadelphia (+3) over OAKLAND:
SEATTLE (-14) over Tampa Bay:
Baltimore (-2) over CLEVELAND:
Pittsburgh (+7) over NEW ENGLAND:
Indy (-2) over HOUSTON:
Chicago (+11) over GREEN BAY:
Overall Record: 60-56-6
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)
CAROLINA (-7) over Atlanta:
Minnesota (+11) over DALLAS:
NY JETS (+6) over New Orleans:
Tennessee (-3) over ST.LOUIS:
Kansas City (-2) over BUFFALO:
WASHINGTON (+2) over San Diego:
Philadelphia (+3) over OAKLAND:
SEATTLE (-14) over Tampa Bay:
Baltimore (-2) over CLEVELAND:
Pittsburgh (+7) over NEW ENGLAND:
Indy (-2) over HOUSTON:
Chicago (+11) over GREEN BAY:
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