Broncos Pull One Out Again Late at San Diego!

The Broncos went into San Diego yesterday against a desperate Chargers team. On the road, against a team that has owned them, Denver and Tim Tebow did it again with another improbable comeback win over the Chargers in overtime 16-13. Denver trailed 10-0 early in the second quarter, but a Tebow to Eric Decker touchdown pass late in the first half, cut the lead to 10-7. The second half played out just the way Broncos wanted it to: Keep it close, stick with the game plan on offense, play great defense, and win it late. Down 13-7, the Broncos were able to cut the lead to 13-10. With the help of a Nick Novak missed field goal, it became Tebow Time once again. Down by three and facing a 3rd and 11 from his own 25, Tebow stood in the pocket, waited, and finally found Eric Decker open deep. On his best throw of the game, Tebow threw a beautiful ball to Decker, who made an unbelievable diving catch for a 39 yard gain to the Chargers 36. Tebow then hit Dante Rosario down the sideline for a 23 yard gain down to the San Diego 12, and the Broncos were knocking on the door. After the Chargers held, with some help by some questionable Denver play-calling, the Broncos tied it at 13 with a Matt Prater field goal. Norv Turner went very conservative with the ball and over 1:34 left in the game, and the game headed to overtime. In OT, Tebow and the Broncos twice had possession. A challenged call from the booth overturned what would have been a Broncos first down on a completion from Tebow to Jeremiah Johnson on third and 11. Johnson's elbow hit down just a half yard short of the first down. The Chargers began to put together a drive, and Ryan Matthews began to run through the Denver defense. With the ball at the 35 yard line. The Broncos stuffed three straight runs, and it set up a 53 yard field goal attempt by Novak. Novak missed it right, and Denver had the ball for the third time in the extra frame. Tebow and the Broncos made them pay this time. Tebow sprinted right for a first down, up the middle for a short gain, and then Willis McGahee galloped for 24 yards to the San Diego 17. From there, Prater ended it with a dramatic 37 yard field goal, and the Broncos won it 16-13. The past four weeks have been as exciting and entertaining for a Broncos fan in years. There is really no way to describe it. The Broncos are now sitting at 6-5, and second in the AFC West. Also, they are only trailing the Bengals by a game for the final wild card spot. As remarkable as Tebow was late again, the defense deserves the credit. They harassed Philip Rivers all game long, and they were able to get stop after stop in crucial situations. The Broncos are not only believing in Tim Tebow. They believe in themselves, and that could make for a very fun next month for the Broncos and their fans. Here are my quick thoughts and observations from the game.......

1) Say what you want about Tim Tebow's passing ability, but with the game on the line Tebow delivered from the pocket. His 3rd down throw to Eric Decker was simply sensational, and he threw the ball well for most of the game. If it wasn't for a few big drops his numbers would have been better, and the Broncos offense might have scored more points. It is amazing to watch him every week. He is now 5-1 as a starter this year, and you can't argue with those numbers.

2) The Broncos defense is playing lights out. Elvis Dumervil had two sacks and is back to creating havoc. Von Miller is the Defensive Rookie of the Year, and his stop on Mike Tolbert late in overtime was tremendous. Their secondary is playing very well, and they finally got after Philip Rivers and kept him in check. The Orange Crush defense would be very proud of how the Broncos have played the last four games.

3) The turning point in the game was late in the first half. The Chargers had the ball at the Denver 44 with 6:08 left and up 10 points. A score there could have really put the Broncos in trouble. Instead Denver's defense got a three and out, and eventually Denver got the late score to make it 10-7.

4) I'm not going to go crazy about John Fox's decision making because he is playing the percentages and trusting his defense in overtime. Denver faced a 4th and 1 from their own 44 on the first possession, and Fox elected to punt. Denver got the ball back and faced a 4th and inches from their own 39, and again Fox elected to punt. It worked out in his favor, but if the Broncos lost, people would be looking at those two decisions again.

5) Willis McGahee continues to be a beast and he gained 117 yards on the ground yesterday. He is so good running the ball out of the spread attack. He simply gashed the Chargers on those inside runs, especially late in the game and in overtime.

6) The Chargers have been a thorn in the Broncos side the past five seasons. With their backs against the wall, you knew this was going to be a slugfest for the Broncos. They were able to keep it close, and they made the plays at the end to win it. It was so nice to see them bury Philip Rivers and walk out of San Diego with a huge win because the Chargers have owned them for so long. If you take out the Ed Hochuli game in 2008, the Broncos have only beaten the Chargers once since 2006.

7) The Broncos are now 6-5 and in the thick of the AFC West and AFC Playoff picture. They head to Minnesota next week to take on a feisty Vikings team. The bottom line is that the Broncos have made a remarkable turnaround from 1-4, and who knows where this could be headed. I just know one thing: Winning is contagious, and I just don't want this run to end.

Week 12 Picks!

As Bill Parcells used to say, "You want to be playing your best football around Thanksgiving." This motto was passed on to Bill Belichick and you will hear that a lot from not only Belichick, but a lot coaches this weekend in the NFL. From now through the end of the year, some teams will begin to hit their stride for the playoffs, while other teams will see their season turn upside down. Don't look at the NFL standings right now and don't even bother paying attention to potential seeds in each conference. It will not look like that come Christmas time and Week 17. This weekend we begin to find out who is going to make a run and who is going to fall off. The games get bigger each week, and this week gives us a glimpse into what is to come down the stretch in the 2011 season. Onto the picks for Week 12.......

Last Week's Record: 3-9-2

Overall Record: 60-75-11

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

ST.LOUIS (-3) over Arizona: The Rams have been really bad this season on offense. Everyone thought the Rams were going to win the NFC West, but the question is now that Steve Spagnuolo's job could be in jeopardy if they don't put together some wins the next six games. They should be able to win and cover at home this week against the equally disappointing Cardinals.

NY JETS (-8) over Buffalo: Every Jets fan was miserable after the Jets lost at Denver last week, but their schedule is going to get them back in the AFC playoff race. They host Buffalo this week, and then play at Washington and at home vs. KC. They should be 8-5 easily heading into their final three games.

CINCY (-7) over Cleveland: The Bengals played two tough games against the Steelers and the Ravens the last two weeks, only to come up short both times. Look for their defense to get the best of Colt McCoy and the Browns this week. Cincy gets to 7-4 with the win.

JACKSONVILLE (+4) over Houston: This pick is solely on the fact that I just don't know what to expect from Matt Leinart as the Texans starting QB. If Matt Schaub didn't go down to a season-ending injury, then Houston could have easily nailed down the number two seed in the AFC this year. We have to see what Leinart can do in these next few weeks before we hand the AFC South to the Texans.

Carolina (-3) over INDY: Cam Newton has to take care of business this week at Indy. The Panthers can play defense, but they might not need it this week. I love that the Colts absolutely suck this year. I love that they are the laughingstock of the NFL. It just makes me happy.

Tampa Bay (+3) over TENNESSEE: I'm not a Tampa Bay fan, but I just have a hunch that they pull this game out. The Bucs played hard in Lambeau last week, and Tennessee is just one of those teams that you can't trust as a favorite.

Minnesota (+9) over ATLANTA: This game looks like an easy win for the Falcons, but I'm going to bet on a late cover by the Vikings to make it closer than expected.

OAKLAND (-4) over Chicago: If Jay Cutler doesn't go down, then the Bears would have easily made the playoffs, been the five seed in the NFC, and they would have been very dangerous in the playoffs. I'm not ready to just think that Caleb Hanie can step in and guide the ship. I know he played well in the second half of the NFC Title Game, but that was one half of football.

Washington (+4) over SEATTLE: The Redskins started 3-1, but have now lost six straight games and are now 3-7. Mike Shanahan can't lose seven straight can he?

New England (-3) over PHILLY: Philly is banged up and Vince Young will start again for the injured Mike Vick. New England's schedule down the stretch looks very winnable, and it should start with a big win at home over the Eagles.

Pittsburgh (-9) over KANSAS CITY: Can the Steelers blow this game on Sunday Night against Tyler Palko? I don't think so.

New York Giants (+7) over NEW ORLEANS: I'm going to buck the trend and take the Giants on the road. Conventional wisdom would say that the Saints will bury the G-Men on Monday Night, but the Giants will respond with a very gutty effort.

SAN DIEGO (-6) over Denver: Can the suddenly surging Broncos deliver the kill shot to the Chargers? Can the Chargers lose their sixth straight game? Can Tim Tebow deliver the type of passing game to quiet all the critics? Will Philip Rivers snap out of his funk against a team that he simply owns? There are so many storylines in this game, that this should have been flexed in for the Sunday Night game over Pitt-KC. I just can't see the Chargers losing at home in an absolute must win game.

Final Score: San Diego-27 Denver-9

Orton Waives Goodbye and Thanksgiving Day Picks!

The Broncos waived Kyle Orton on Tuesday. After the Broncos started 1-4, Orton was benched in favor of Tim Tebow. From the moment Orton was benched, you knew his career in Denver was over. He will be a free agent next season, and there was no chance the Broncos were going to sign him. Kansas City claimed Orton off waivers, and it looks like Orton will get a chance to QB the Chiefs down the stretch, especially since Matt Cassel is on injured reserve. This does set up the possibility of an Orton-Tebow showdown in Denver as the Chiefs and Broncos will square off in Week 17. We'll worry about Orton down the road when we get to that point, but trust me I'm not shedding a tear about the end of the Kyle Orton Era in Denver. I wanted Orton gone in the middle of last season, and I finally got my wish. Of all the QBs that were tabbed as the successor to John Elway (A list that includes Brian Griese, Jake Plummer, and Jay Cutler), he was my least favorite and least talented. I'm sure someone will look at his numbers and say that he will somehow get the Chiefs into the playoffs and win the AFC West, but when you watch Orton game-by-game and snap-by-snap, you realize is simply isn't the guy. Let's just hope it doesn't come back to bite us the last game of the season.

Before I get to my Thanksgiving Day picks, did the NFL hit a home run with this year's slate of Thanksgiving games? It is great that the Lions are good this year, so adding them and the Packers is fantastic. The Cowboys are having a good season at 6-4, and having them go up against a feisty underdog like Miami, winners of three in a row, should be at least somewhat competitive. Lastly, the NFL Network nightcap features the Harbaugh brothers doing battle with their two teams a combined 16-4. Not a bad day for NFL football. One last thing on the Turkey Day matchups. I really liked the idea by the NFL to add the third game on Thanksgiving Night back in 2006. The only problem with the idea is that the games have been pretty non-competitive. Here are the games dating back to its' inception in 2006:

1)2006-Kansas City-19 Denver-10 (The "Jake Plummer Gets Benched" Game for all those Broncos fans out there.)

2)2007-Indy-31 Atlanta-13 (The "Oh Shit We Scheduled This Before We Found Out Michael Vick Was Running a Dog Fighting Ring" Game.)

3)2008-Philly-48 Arizona-20 (The "Never Rely on Arizona Or Other Western Teams Traveling East on a Short Week" Game.)

4)2009-Denver-26 Giants-6 (The "Josh McDaniels Was a Decent Coach For One Night" Game, and The "Moment the 2009 Giants Mailed It In" Game.)

5)2010- Jets-26 Cincy-10 (The "Hey Shove the Jets Down Everyones Throat" Game, and The "Wow! Carson Palmer Really Blows" Game.)

As you can see, the Thursday Night Thanksgiving Classic hasn't exactly lived up to that billing, but let's hope this year's game is a little better than the previous five matchups.

Here are the picks for Thanksgiving..........

Green Bay (-6) over DETROIT: I was going to pick the Lions all week mainly because they haven't won a Thanksgiving Game since 2006, Ford Field would be rocking, and the Packers are due for a loss; however, when I looked at it closer, I think the Packers win this game by at least 10 points. Here is why: First, the home field is important for the Lions, but their crowd isn't going to be pumped up for an early kickoff (12:30 EST) as opposed for a Monday Night Game like they played against the Bears in October. Plus, the Lions aren't playing well lately, and the Packers played Tampa Bay tighter last week, so they will be on their game this short week. Look for Aaron Rodgers and the Packers to continue to be undefeated for one more week.

DALLAS (-7) over Miami: The Cowboys find themselves at 6-4 and tied for the lead in the NFC East. The Dolphins come in at 3-7 and winners of their last three. A lot of people have told the Cowboys how difficult this game could be and it is a classic trap game. I'm not buying it one bit. Give the Dolphins credit: They have played hard all year long, but this week the Cowboys dominate. I just can't shake the image of DeMarcus Ware tracking down Matt Moore all game long. The Boys win easily.

BALTIMORE (-3) over San Francisco: The 49ers have totally exceeded expectations and find themselves at 9-1. Every week, I am waiting for the Niners to play a dog game, and every week they prove me wrong. I just don't see them winning this game. Trust me, I'm not a believer in Baltimore, but this game just seems like a game the Ravens pull out near the end. Should be a fun game to watch, but look for the Ravens to finish the Niners off late.

Tebow's Comeback Beats Jets!

Last night's 17-13 victory by the Broncos over the New York Jets was a throwback to the glory days of my childhood. How many times did I watch John Elway swoop in like a superhero and bring the Broncos back late in the fourth quarter, especially at home in the old Mile High Stadium. Mile High would be rocking and shaking as Elway and the Broncos would pull out another improbable victory. The Broncos have been very shaky the last few years at home, and there isn't the same "Mile High Magic" that we are accustomed to seeing; however, last night was one of those nights for Denver fans. The man at the controls this time: Tim Tebow. Tebow led a 95 yard drive to win the game for the Broncos. Tebow accounted for 92 of the 95 yards both on the ground and in the air. Tebow finished off the drive with a 20 yard touchdown run with just 50 seconds left to give the Broncos the lead. Denver's defense got a huge sack from Von Miller, and eventually swatted away a final Jet pass to secure the victory. The Broncos offense was bottled up the entire game, and Denver couldn't take advantage of good field position all night long. Denver was stopped on a 4th and 1 from the Jets 20 yard line in the first quarter. Another drive started in Jet territory following a huge kick return by Cassius Vaughn. The result of that drive equaled no points. The Broncos recovered a Joe McKnight fumble early in the fourth quarter with the game tied 10-10 on a kick return. Once again Tebow and the offense didn't move it an inch. The Jets took their 13-10 lead and punted Denver down to their own five with just over five minutes to go. Then, Tebow took over. He mixed the run and the pass, and converted a few third downs to set up his game winning run. It was one of the most exciting moments I've had as a Broncos fan in a long time. The bottom line is that Tebow wins. As bad as he might play in the game, if he gets a chance to win it, he will make the plays to win the game. Is it unconventional? Sure. Is this a long-term solution? Probably not, but he is now 4-1 as a starter this year, and the Broncos are miraculously 5-5. Forget about stats and all the other stuff, Tim Tebow is helping the Broncos win. That's all that matters at the end of the day. Like I said, last night was an old school night for me. One of my favorite moments of the telecast was when they showed John Elway clapping from the press box after Tebow scored. It is crazy to think that once Elway was the Broncos QB, and now he is running the organization from the front office. It brought me back in time. Instead of jumping up and down in my Elway jersey as a nine year old, there I was jumping, clapping, and screaming in my basement with my Tebow jersey, and the new Mile High Stadium was rocking again-just like old times.

Here are my quick thoughts and observations on the game:

1) The Broncos running game was stuffed pretty much all night. Willis McGahee could use the extra days off and get ready for San Diego in Week 12. His fumble was huge in the first quarter and gave the Jets the field position to tie it at 3.

2) The Broncos defense was very impressive again. Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil set the tone with their sack on Mark Sanchez on the third play of the game for the Jets. Miller's sack on Sanchez on the final drive was a "jump out of your seat" type of play. Andre Goodman was solid all night, and his interception of Sanchez and subsequent return for a touchdown was the turning point late in the third quarter.

3) The Broncos offense squandered so many opportunities, as I mentioned earlier. Imagine how the game might have played out if they converted some of those possessions?

4) One camera shot that stood out was the look of bewilderment by Rex Ryan after Tebow scored. He was just pacing up and down the sideline shaking his head and looking down at the ground.

5) I loved the reaction and call by Brad Nessler on Tebow's touchdown run. The excitement in his voice was great, and I loved how Mike Mayock just laughed as Tebow was running it in. It was almost like Mayock knew this was how the game was going to end

6) Lastly, what else could you say about Tebow. Down by three with 95 yards to go against the vaunted Jets defense. Incredible drive and incredible moment by Tebow. He is just a winner, and he plays great down the stretch in these games. If he puts some sort of legitimate passing game together, he could be the ultimate weapon.

Here are my Week 11 picks.........

Last Week's Record: 6-9-0

Overall Record: 57-66-7

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

ATLANTA (-6) over Tennessee: The Falcons aren't going to lose two in a row at home. They shut down the Titans and Chris Johnson to get to 6-4.

Buffalo (+2) over MIAMI: The Dolphins have won two in a row, and the Bills are 5-4 and fading fast. This looks like a Miami win, but the Bills get the big road victory.

BALTIMORE (-7) over Cincy: The Ravens played terrible in the loss at Seattle last week, while the Bengals came up short to the Steelers. This game will be close, but I'll take the Ravens at home.

CLEVELAND (-1) over Jacksonville: How bad was that missed field goal by the Browns last week to lose the game to the Rams? How bad was my sleeper pick of the Browns this year? Cleveland wins a close one at home.

MINNESOTA (PICK) over Oakland: Broncos fans have to root like heck for the Vikings this week. The Vikings win it late and the Raiders fall to 5-5.

Carolina (+7) over DETROIT: The Lions will win this game, but remember that Cam Newton always covers. I don't like how the Lions have played the last four weeks, and the Panthers will keep it close.

GREEN BAY (-14) over Tampa Bay: The Bay of Pigs resumes in Lambeau. Just lock it up: The Pack and the over.

Dallas (-7) over Washington: I've picked Mike Shanahan too many times the last few weeks, and I got burned every time. Don't look now, but here come the Cowboys!

SAN FRANCISCO (-9) over Arizona: This looks like a 20-10 Niner win. I'm sold on the Niners, and they look like a 12 win team, and the 2 seed in the NFC. How funny is it that Kevin Kolb might not get his job back after losing it to John Skelton?

ST.LOUIS (-3) over Seattle: Tough one to watch on Sunday. Go with the Rams at home.

CHICAGO (-3) over San Diego: I'm shocked that this line is that low. The Chargers are all banged up, and the Bears are playing really well right now. Jay Cutler and Philip Rivers rekindle their epic feud one more time. The last time these two faced off, Cutler was on the Broncos and they were in the midst of imploding and losing the division at the hands of the Chargers. This time, Cutler wins, and sets the Chargers back to 4-6.

NY GIANTS (-5) over Philly: If Mike Vick was going to play in this game, I would have taken the Eagles. Without Vick, the Eagles don't have a good shot-especially with Vince Young calling the shots. The Giants can put the nail in the coffin on the Eagles this week with a win. They'll get it done.

NEW ENGLAND (-14) over Kansas City: Tyler Palko on the road, in Foxboro, against Brady and Belichick, on Monday Night Football. I think I'll take the Pats.

Thursday Night Pick

As much as I would love nothing more then to see the Broncos upset the Jets this week on Thursday Night Football, this is a matchup nightmare for the Broncos. The Jets are going to slow down Denver's running game and force Tim Tebow to beat them. I can't see Tebow being able to beat the Jets through the air. Plus, the Jets are in need of a win after their stinker on Sunday Night against the Patriots. Final Score: Jets-27 Denver-3

The Pick:
New York Jets (-4) over DENVER BRONCOS

Broncos Win At Arrowhead to get to 4-5

I have seen a lot of different things in my lifetime of watching and obsessing with the NFL, but Sunday's Denver win over Kansas City was something that I have never seen before. The Broncos defeated the Chiefs in Arrowhead 17-10, and the victory puts Denver at 4-5, and it is their first two game winning streak since December of 2009. The crazy thing about this game was that the Broncos attempted a total of 8 passes the entire game. They ran the ball 55 times in the game. Tim Tebow was 2-8 for 69 yards and one touchdown, including the game-clinching 56 yard game winning touchdown pass to Eric Decker to extend the Broncos lead to 17-7. After rushing the ball eight times on their opening drive, the Broncos punched the ball into the end zone on a Tebow seven yard run. The Broncos added a huge 38 yard field goal with 7:46 left in the second quarter to give the Broncos a 10-0. The Broncos defense held the Chiefs scoreless until Kansas City cut the lead to 10-7 after Matt Cassel hit Le'Ron McClain on a short touchdown pass with eight minutes left in the third quarter. The Broncos faced a huge 3rd and 10 at their own 44 yard line with just over six minutes left when Tebow hit a beautiful, perfectly thrown bomb to Decker to give the Broncos the clinching points. It was as bizarre a game that I have ever seen as a Broncos fan. The bottom line is a win is a win, and now the Broncos have won three out of four, and they are only one game behind the Raiders for first in the AFC West. Here are my thoughts on the game............

1) Give Tebow credit. It may not be pretty, but he makes at least one or two throws a game that are game-breakers. He is now 4-3 as a Broncos starter overall, and he is 3-1 this season. The long term situation with Tebow is up for debate, but right now you have to go with what he is doing. It is fun to watch every week, and let's just enjoy this ride right now.

2) The Broncos running game is pretty damn good. Willis McGahee had 17 yards on four carries, but he was injured in the first quarter. Knowshon Moreno, who was lost for the year with an ACL injury in the second quarter, had 4 carries for 52 yards. Next up was Lance Ball, who rushed for 96 yards on 30 carries. The Broncos totaled 244 yards rushing.

3) The Broncos defense is not great, but they play well against average QBs and average offensive teams. They simply swarmed Matt Cassel and limited him to only 93 yards passing. Von Miller added 1.5 sacks, and Broncos sacked Cassel four times, and hurried him countless other times. Their defense will get carved up by the Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers, and Matt Staffords of the world, but they can play against average players.

4) Give credit to John Fox and the Broncos coaching staff. Yesterday, we saw dive option, spread option, zone read, jet sweeps to Eddie Royal, and even a semblance of a shovel pass. They are being creative with Tim Tebow, and that is the sign of good coaching. It kind of reminds me of what the Dolphins did with the Wildcat in 2008. I don't know how long it will last, but it is certainly bucking the trend in the NFL.

5) If Tim Tebow can get to about 20 passes a game, and if he can complete about 12-13 of those a game, then that is reasonable for his development the last seven games.

6) The Broncos lost Moreno for the year with an ACL, and McGahee is questionable for the Jet game on Thursday.

7) The Broncos host the Jets on NFL Network's Thursday Night Football, and it will be a very difficult game for the Broncos to win. I'll preview this game before Thursday Night, but with a win, Denver can get to .500 at 5-5.

Week 10 Picks!

We have hit Week 10 in the NFL season, and this season is flying by so quick. It is going so fast that I forgot to make a pick on the Thursday Night game between San Diego and Oakland (Good thing because I probably would have went with the Chargers, and the Raiders won 24-17.) I can't believe we are already up to the Thursday Night Game on NFL Network! Anyway, now the puzzle begins to get put together piece by piece. We have learned some things, yet there are still many questions left to be answered. Are the Patriots really vulnerable? Who the hell is going to win the AFC West? Are the Bengals for real? Are the Eagles going to be one of the most disappointing teams in recent history? All of these questions will be answered the next eight weeks, but before we get there, you have to remember that the NFL is a week-to-week league. One week your team is great, the next week you team is not even in the playoff picture. It literally changes every week. You can't get too high with the wins, and you can't get too low with the losses. Case in point: Look at the AFC East. Just one week ago, the Pats were 5-2, the Bills were 5-2 and the Jets were 4-3. No one expected the Pats to lose two in a row, especially at home to the banged-up Giants. The Bills were the darlings of the league, and they were ready to host the Jets in their coming out party up in Orchard Park. The Jets were trying to build off of their second half comeback over the Chargers, but they were an underdog going into Buffalo. The Pats lose late to Giants in a stunner to fall to 5-3, and the Jets dominated the Bills to create a three-way logjam atop the AFC East. The Bills got exposed, and the Jets look like they are hitting their stride. In a span of seven days, the Jets look like the eventual division champs, there are many questions surrounding the Patriots, and the Bills look like a paper tiger. That is the way the NFL goes. Onto to the picks for Week 10........

Last Week's Record: 6-8

Overall Record: 57-66-7

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

Pittsburgh (-3) over CINCY: I am reluctantly going to take the Steelers in what will be a really good game in the AFC North. That loss to the Ravens was a killer, but I think the Stillers will take care of Andy Dalton on the road this week. It will be close, but look for a 17-10 win by Pittsburgh.

Jacksonville (-3) over INDY: Will the Colts go 0-16? This might be the week they win, but if they lose, they could be going down that path. How bad is it for the Colts that NBC already flexed out of the Colts-Pats SNF game on December 4th? NBC hasn't even named a replacement game yet, but they want no part of the Colts. The Jags aren't very good, and Blaine Gabbert has been awful, but this week they will take care of Indy.

Buffalo (+6) over DALLAS: The Cowboys will be in the wildcard hunt come December, but this looks like a good bounce-back game for the Bills. Everyone is jumping off the Buffalo bandwagon, and I haven't seen too many people pick against the Cowboys this week, so I'll take the Bills on the road.

TAMPA BAY (+3) over Houston: The Texans are the better team, but the Bucs are more desperate. I'll take the desperate team at home. Houston can afford to lose this game, and at 6-4 all they have to do is go 4-2 and finish with 10 wins to get the AFC South. Tampa Bay can't afford another loss because at 4-5 it will be tough for them to get a wildcard in the crowded NFC. The Bucs find a way at home.

Tennessee (+3) over CAROLINA: This game smells like a big one for Cam Newton and the Panthers, but I'll ride the Titans for one more week. I can't really figure out the Titans this year, but this week they rise up and get a big road win to get to 5-4.

MIAMI (-3) over Washington: The Dolphins are like 1-12 in their last 13 home games. They have to get a win one of these days at home right? The Redskins have no QB, plain and simple. Miami got their first win last week on the road at Arrowhead, and they have played hard every week. Take the Fish laying only a field goal.

New Orleans (PICK) over ATLANTA: Big game in the NFC South. I'll take the Saints on the road in a thriller. This looks like a 27-24 game either way, but the Saints and Drew Brees make one more play than the Falcons late to win it.

Detroit (+3) over CHICAGO: How about the Bears hanging around at 5-3? If anyone in Denver wants to know why the Broncos' record since Week 8 of 2009 is 9-25, then look no further at the starting QB of the current Chicago Bears. Jay Cutler has been tremendous this year, and as much as I like the way the Bears are playing, the Lions will win this game on the road. Too much firepower on offense, and the Bears are going to get shut down by that Lions defense.

CLEVELAND (-2) over St.Louis: Has Sam Bradford regressed this year? The Rams have one win, and that came with A.J. Feeley running the offense. The Browns have been a slight disappointment in my opinion, but look for them to take care of business at home this week.

PHILLY (-13) over Arizona: At 3-5, the Eagles are not dead yet, but they are on life support. The need to to 7-1 to make the playoffs, and 6-2 to have any shot of making it. They start the second half of the season, with an easy win over the depleted Cardinals.

Baltimore (-6) over SEATTLE: I will never be a Joe Flacco supporter, but last week's win in Pittsburgh on a late touchdown pass from Flacco to Torrey Smith might have been his moment. Expect no letdown this week, as the Ravens take out the pesky Seahawks on the road.

New York Giants (+4) over SAN FRANCISCO: The Niners have that classic look of the team that finishes 12-4, gets the number two seed in the NFC, a first round bye, and then they lose at home in disappointing fashion in the divisional round. After watching the Giants dispatch of the Patriots last week, I became a believer of the G-Men. By the way, it is nice to see a big game between the Giants and the Niners again. These two franchises have had some epic, big game battles going back to the 80s. Good scene this week out in Candlestick.

NEW YORK JETS (-1) over New England: The Jets are rolling, and the Patriots are reeling. This is the perfect storm for the Jets this week, and they have been really good at home this year. A Jet win this week won't guarantee them the AFC East, but I have a feeling the Jets bring their "A" game this Sunday Night. The Pats aren't done yet, but they will have to regroup after they take their licking in New York.

GREEN BAY (-12) over Minnesota: The Packers will lose a game this year, and they can't play at a high level every week, but I don't see it happening this week at Lambeau on Monday Night. The Packers will toy with the Vikings for a while, but in the end too much Aaron Rodgers and that high-powered offense. One more thing: We all know that Rodgers is the best QB in the NFL right now, but can we hold off on the whole "Aaron Rodgers is the best QB ever" argument? Can we wait until his career ends to start this debate?

KANSAS CITY (-3) over Denver: If Denver wins this game, then the Broncos season really could get interesting. A Bronco win would put them at 4-5 and only one game behind the Raiders for the AFC West lead. Also, enough with the talk that the Broncos ran the option to defeat the Raiders last week. You would think that they lined up in the wishbone all game long. Tim Tebow did run for over 100 yards, but only like 3 plays did he keep the ball on the zone read. The other times they ran it, it was a spread, shotgun run to Willis McGahee. The Broncos have been running that play all year long. The key was that Tebow kept it in key moments, and gained big yardage everytime he did. The zone read give to the halfback is one of the base plays of any team that spreads out their receivers. The bottom line is that the Broncos never win in Arrowhead, and even though the Chiefs aren't dominating at home, this game looks like a tough matchup for Tebow and the Broncos.

Final Score: Kansas City-24 Denver-6