Friday, November 27, 2009

A Thanksgiving Stuffing in Denver

Hopefully, Denver's 26-6 beatdown of the New York Giants on Thanksgiving night will be what gets the Broncos back on track. The win moves Denver to 7-4 and back into the thick of the AFC playoff picture. Here are a few tidbits from the game before get onto my picks for Thanksgiving week picks.
1) That was an "A" game for Denver. Suffocating and pressuring defense, efficient offensively, solid running game, solid special teams, and fundamentally sound football on both sides. That was exactly how Denver got to 6-0, and that is how they played against the G-Men.
2) Run the ball. Josh McDaniels must have listened to the fans this week because he gave the rock a lot to Knowshon Moreno and Correll Buckhalter. Denver can run the ball very effectively, but they have become too pass happy the last four weeks. They won't break a lot of big runs, but they can be steady will it and it will work as the game progresses.
3) The Bronco offense is too inconsistent. They can move the ball, but penalties and red zone problems still persist. That game could have been 27-0 at halftime had Denver not committed so many penalties and inconsistent play inside the red zone.
4) Rush the quarterback. The Broncos defense is at its' best when they bring their multiple pressure schemes. They got away from that the last four weeks, but last night they brought a lot of different looks and blitzes. They confused Eli Manning and pressured him throughout. They need to take more chances every week. Elvis Dumervil is a great third down pass rusher. They must get him going early and often for their defense to be successful.
5) The Broncos benefitted from playing this game at home. It was apparent that the Giants weren't ready for this game. The short rest combined with the long flight seemed to give the Giants a disadvantage. I'm not making excuses for New York, but the Broncos got the right team, at the right time, at home on Thanksgiving.
6) Rest up for the stretch. The Broncos now have 11 days to get healthy, rest up, and prepare for the final five games. They head to Arrowhead to face Kansas City on December 6th.

Last Week's Record: 7-6-3
Thanksgiving Record: 2-1
Overall Record: 78-79-6
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

INDY (-3) over Houston: Every time I pick Houston in a big game, they burn me. I'll take my shot with Peyton Manning this week. The Colts will lose a game this year, but not this week.

CINCY (-12) over Cleveland: The Bengals slipped up last week at Oakland. They will rebound nicely with a romp over their rivals.

MINNESOTA (-10) 0ver Chicago: I love rooting against Jay Cutler. I would normally pick the Bears this week, but it is just too much to fun to pass up the chance to root against Cutler. Lovie Smith's days are numbered in Chicago. The Vikings continue to impress every week, and that are such a loaded team. They continue their march towards the first round bye with a whipping on the Bears.

PHILLY (-8) over Washington: I don't love this game, but I think the Eagles are going to win the NFC East, so I'm going to take them here.

Miami (-2) over BUFFALO: The Dolphins are such a well coached and disciplined team, that I actually find myself rooting for them a lot of weeks. They continue their late season surge, and put the Bills to rest in Buffalo.

TENNESSEE (-3) over Arizona: The Cardinals have to lose on the road sooner or later, so why not this week. The Titans are playing very well right now, and Chris Johnson is so much fun to watch. They have something to build upon with the combo of Johnson and a seasoned Vince Young. The Titans won't run the table and go 10-6, but they get to 5-6 this week.

Seattle (-3) over ST.LOUIS: An awful, cheap NFC West matchup this week. I was wrong about Seattle because I thought they were going to be a good this year. They need to really rebuild this team this offseason.

ATLANTA (-10) over Tampa Bay: This is the lock of the week. Even if Michael Turner, doesn't play, Matt Ryan gets it going against that Buc defense. Jim Bates got demoted as the DC of the Bucs this past week. He might be the only DC to get demoted midseason twice. It also happened to him in Denver in 2007.

Carolina (+3) over NEW YORK JETS: Jet fans overhyped Rex Ryan and Mark Sanchez way too much after three games. Since then, the Jets have come back to reality. The Panthers spoil the Jets Thanksgiving weekend.

SAN FRANCISCO (-3) over Jacksonville: No one wants to see Jacksonville make the playoffs. The Niners help out the league this week by taking care of the Jags in SF.

SAN DIEGO (-11) over Kansas City: This is one of those games where the Chargers sleepwalk through and win 20-16. I can't go against the Chargers at this point because they are rolling. It is too much to ask the Chiefs to knock off San Diego on the road.

BALTIMORE (-1) over Pittsburgh: Game of the Week on Sunday Night Football. The Steelers have lost their way, and the Ravens are shockingly 5-5. I see the Ravens winning on a close field goal at the end.

New England (+2) over NEW ORLEANS: Another great game on Monday Night Football to finish off the week. I'll take the Pats to outscore the Saints and knock New Orleans off their undefeated perch. Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are great in these types of games. They should have beaten the Colts two weeks ago, and this week they finish the job in the Superdome.

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