I remember the last time there was supposed to be NFL football on a Sunday in the fall, and there were no games on. It was in September of 1987. The NFL players had just struck and there was no games played and no agreement in sight. I remember watching as CBS tried to fill the programming void by replaying the previous year's Super Bowl, which was Super Bowl XXI. As Brent Musberger and Irv Cross were breaking down the first half between the Giants and Broncos, I just couldn't understand why the hell there is no football. I couldn't understand why the NFL players would go on strike. Needless to say it was an awful Sunday. We all know what happened next: The owners used replacement players for three games, a lot of NFL players crossed the picket line and the NFL returned to normalcy soon thereafter. For the first time since 1987, there is a serious possibility that the NFL could have a labor and work stoppage that could affect the playing of games next fall. How did we get to this point? Why would anyone involved in the NFL screw this up? Could this be the downfall of the league? Let's take a look at some of these questions and others as we do a little "Question/Answer" regarding the current labor war in the NFL.
-How did we get to this point of labor conflict?
This storm has been brewing since 2006. In March of 2006, the players argued that in the next CBA agreement they wanted more piece of the pie. The owners resisted but Paul Tagliabue was in the final days of his career as NFL Commissioner. Gene Upshaw, head of the NFLPA, gave Tagliabue and the owners a hardline offer that gave the players a significant portion of the NFL revenue pie. Tagliabue, who didn't want to leave on the heels of a lockout or labor unrest for the first time in his career, got the owners to agree and vote on this deal with an option of opting out of the agreement in 2008 if they felt that the CBA wasn't working. Many people felt that in respect to Tagliabue and to the opt out clause, that the owners voted to agree to this new CBA. Many NFL experts, writers, and analysts back then said that this was just a quelling of the storm and many expected the owners to opt out as soon as they had the chance to do so. Of course, the owners opted out in 2008, and here we are in 2011 facing a lockout and labor unrest.
-Who is right and who is wrong in your opinion?
I actually am siding with the owners on this one. Look, the players got the better half of the deal in 2006, and it is time that the owners get a little payback in this deal. The owners are making money but they aren't making the kind of money they made back in era of 1993-2006. Stadium debts, rising expenses and costs, and a different economic climate all translate into the owners looking to get some kickback in this deal. They won't open their books, which is fine for me, but there is obviously some issues with a lot of these teams and their finances. The only team that you can view the books publicly is the Green Bay Packers because they are publicly owned. In 2006, the Packers made $34 million dollars of profit. Last year, the Packers made $ 9 million. There is obviously a decrease, and I think the owners should get a fair deal this time around.
-What is the major issue dividing these two camps?
It all comes down to the distribution of the revenue for the players and the owners. In 2006, the players wanted more piece of the pie, and they got it. Now, the owners want more of that revenue pie, and they are going to fight to get it. Without getting too technical, the NFL is about a $9 billion dollar business. The owners get a billion off the top and then it is distributed to the players and to the clubs. In 2006, the players were able to get a percentage of that revenue out of all streams of revenue that the league makes. The owners would like to swing it back the other way. There are some reports that say the two sides are $1 billion dollars apart. The bottom line is that if both sides could come up with what revenue pot are they splitting up, and how much each will take, then they could get this deal done. It sounds easy, but I would assume the players aren't going to back down, and the owners are trying to take a lot more then they will probably end up with. My solution: Go back to what they were working off pre-2006 CBA. The players might not like it, but the game will continue to grow. As the game grows, then the revenue of the league will grow, which in turn will help the players make more money. The other issues we have been hearing about, the 18 game schedule and the rookie wage scale, can easily be figured out once they get close to the real meat and potatoes of this deal.
-Is there going to be a lockout and no football in September?
As much as experts and insiders keep intimating, I still don't think there will be lockout. If there is one, then it will only last a few weeks or a month. We will definitely be seeing games in September at the regularly scheduled times too. Mark that down. Don't buy all the negative hype and press. Peter King and Adam Schefter are going to talk to members on both sides of the negotiating teams and many of those same members will probably say things that might lean towards a lockout or workstoppage. I don't buy any of that for a second. It is all apart of negotiation. NFL people know which writers and media members are read and listened to. They know that if they tell Peter King that a lockout is definite, then King will put that into his MMQB column and every football fan in America will begin to talk and think about the lockout. Members of the other side of the bargaining table will also read it or hear about it and then continue to think that certain side is dead serious about this whole labor situation. It is all a negotiating ploy. The two sides met for seven days last week with a federal mediator. They will meet again next Tuesday with the mediator and try to resolve the issues before the deadline on March 4. I can see there being a "lockout" on that date, but then after a few weeks going by without any talks, there will be some secret meetings between the NFL owners, Commissioner Goodell, DeMaurice Smith, and NFLPA members. Both sides will forge an agreement by around April 1st. I wouldn't be surprised to see the NFL break the news of the agreement during the NCAA Final Four and the opening week of the Major League Baseball just to stick it to them. There will be stories of how Goodell and Smith are the heroes of this and how they just couldn't let this lockout continue and ruin the sport. There will be tales of someone like John Mara, the Giants owner, pleading with the members of both sides for cooler heads to prevail and do what is right for the shield just like his father, Wellington Mara, helped create the revenue sharing model that assisted in making the NFL what it is today. All these stories will leak out and both sides will claim victory. The owners will get a better economic structure, and the players will have avoided the 18 game schedule. Everyone will be happy and the offseason free agency period will begin. It is such an easy story to write, I could already envision some NFL hack like Gary Myers or Rick Gosselin getting their pencils sharpened. There is no way we are headed to the NFL Draft without a labor deal, and there is no way there won't be games played on Sunday September 11, 2011-the first Sunday of the NFL season.
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