NFL Week 4 Picks!

As we head into the first weekend of October, there are plenty of storylines that are emerging in the 2011 NFL season. The first story is the fact that the Bills and Lions are 3-0. How could you not root for these two teams to do well and continue this surprising start. Both teams last made the playoffs in the 1999 season. For the Bills to come back from 21-0 down to the Patriots and win the game 34-31, that is just remarkable. Ryan Fitzpatrick is a legitimate MVP candidate at this point, and he might be the example of how you can't just give up on your QB after a few seasons and let the guy develop (Unless your QB is Kyle Orton.) The Lions came back from a 20-0 down at Minnesota to pull that one out 26-23 in OT. Both teams are great stories and it will be fun to see how long this plays out. Remember, the Bills were 4-0 back in 2008, then came back to Earth and finished 7-9. The Lions are young, and it will be interesting to see how well they continue to play as the games get bigger and bigger.

The next storyline is the self-annointed "Dream Team" in Philadelphia. The Eagles are 1-2 and Michael Vick is getting banged around and beaten up. I'm pretty sure the Eagles will be fine, but it will be very interesting to watch how this team plays week in and week out as they get every other team's best shot.

The next storyline involves the Packers. They are 3-0 and look like they are rolling to a NFC North Title and a possible repeat Super Bowl Championship. Can the Pack keep this going all season? Of course there will be some bumps in the road, but Green Bay looks very hard to beat and should be on their way to the 1 seed in the NFC.

The final storyline is how far will the Colts fall. Although they played inspired last Sunday Night in the loss to Pittsburgh, they look like they are headed for a really dreadful season. It doesn't look like Peyton Manning is coming back, and it will be interesting how hard they play as their season continues to crumble.

With more storylines to continue to develop, let's take a dip into the Week 4 picks.......

Last Week's Record: 7-8-1

Overall Record: 22-22-4

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

DALLAS (-2) over Detroit: The game is tough to pick, but I'm going with the Cowboys, but more because I think the Lions' youth will do them in this week. The Lions matchup very well with Dallas, and I could see the Lions jumping out to an early 14-0 lead, but the Cowboys come back and find a way to win it by a field goal at home.

JACKSONVILLE (+7) over New Orleans: I know it is only Blaine Gabbert's second start, but I would have to say that this is my "Hunch of the Week." Young QBs have proven that they aren't overwhelmed in their first few starts, and the Jags always seem to play really well at home as an underdog.

PHILADELPHIA (-9) over San Francisco: The Eagles will fight through this early adversity, and you would expect them to play their best game of the season this week at home against the Niners. San Fran is 2-1, but they are the classic "Year Away" team. This game could be closer than the line, but the Eagles right the ship for this week at least.

Washington (-2) over ST.LOUIS: The Rams have proven that they are no way near their preseason potential, but at 0-3 they are still in the mix for the NFC West Title. The Skins played well enough to win at Dallas on MNF, but overall I like where this Washington team is heading. The Skins win late on the road.

CLEVELAND (-1) over Tennessee: The Titans lost Kenny Britt for the season with an ACL tear last week, and Chris Johnson is struggling to get going this season. Both teams come in at 2-1, and this should be a really fun and physical game. The Browns will do enough at home to get the win in a game that just smells like a 13-10 or 16-14 type of game.

CINCY (+3) over Buffalo: A trap game if there ever was one. The Bengals aren't very good, and they looked awful in last week's loss to the Niners, but I have a feeling they pull the upset on the 3-0 Bills.

Minnesota (-2) over KANSAS CITY: A rematch of Super Bowl IV with both teams coming in at 0-3. Sounds like a beauty of a game huh? The Vikings could be 3-0 or at least they should be 2-1. This week they finally get their first win of the season. Todd Haley continues to feel the heat as the Chiefs fall to 0-4.

CHICAGO (-6) over Carolina: The Bears are 1-2, but I just don't think they can matchup against the Packers. I was tempted to pick the Panthers, but Jay Cutler will make a few big plays in this game to get the win at home.

HOUSTON (-3) over Pittsburgh: I really don't like what I have seen from the Steelers this year. Although they are 2-1, they got killed at Baltimore, rebounded with a drubbing of Seattle, and then almost got beat at Indy without Peyton Manning. This is a statement game for the Texans, and they really need to win this game. The Texans will get it done at home.

Atlanta (-4) over SEATTLE: The Seahawks are 1-2, but we all know they are better at home. They are one of the few teams that still have a homefield advantage. The Falcons are struggling at 1-2, and I think they will continue to struggle all year. I am cautious to take Atlanta on the road, but they will do enough to win this game by at least a touchdown.

New York Giants (-1) over ARIZONA: All week long, I thought the Cards were going to win this game, but now I am changing my thoughts and going with the G-Men. The Giants win over the Eagles last week was a season changer, and I think they will play well and win this week on the road.

Miami (+7) over SAN DIEGO: The Chargers and Philip Rivers have not played well in their first three games. Although they are 2-1, they seem like they are playing very sloppy and uninspired. The Dolphins are 0-3, and it is hard to see them winning this game, but they will keep this game close enough to justify taking the points.

OAKLAND (+5) over New England: This is the most surprising line of the week. The Raiders look like the best team in the AFC West, and at 2-1 they look really solid. After they buried the Jets last week, I thought this line would be totally different. The Pats blew a 21-0 lead in the loss at Buffalo, and conventional wisdom says Tom Brady and Bill Belichick won't lose back-to-back games. With all of that, I still think this is a matchup problem for the Pats.

BALTIMORE (-3) over New York Jets: Under Rex Ryan, every time you count the Jets out, they come back and play well and step up to the plate. As much as I like the Jets to do that again this week, this could be the game that really sends Jets fans into a whirlwind. This just smells like a really tough game for the Jets, and the Ravens will put them away in the fourth quarter.

TAMPA BAY (-9) over Indy: I have gone against Josh Freeman and the Bucs too many times. This week I ride the Bucs in a MNF victory over the Colts, who are starting Curtis Painter. I can definitely see the Colts covering, but I have a feeling they are going to throw in the towel on this one.

GREEN BAY (-11) over Denver: The Broncos come in at 1-2 after a really tough loss at Tennessee. Denver really could have won, but it wasn't enough. This game just seems like too tall of an order for the Broncos. There are matchup problems all over the field for the Broncos defense. Their only chance on defense is if they get a good pass rush. Elvis Dumervil might come back this week, so that could help, but it looks like Aaron Rodgers could have a tremendous day against the Broncos secondary. Once again, Kyle Orton is going to have to step up, but the Packers pass rush might be too much for the struggling Broncos offensive line. Charles Woodson should get a few opportunities at turnovers, and the Packers put together a complete game at home.

Final Score: Green Bay-34 Denver-20