Thursday, December 22, 2011

Week 16 Picks!

As we head towards Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, this year the NFL season coincides with Christmas. As I was thinking about that, I remembered some of the past Christmas/Bronco moments. The Broncos actually have some really good memories playing on Christmas Eve or Christmas Day in my lifetime. Here are some of the games and memories attached with them:

Christmas Eve 1995 Denver at Oakland: This is actually one of my favorite Bronco games of all time. The Broncos travel to Oakland with a 7-8 record. The Raiders are 8-7 and need one win to make the playoffs. It was Mike Shanahan's first year, and before the game John Elway told some reporters that if the Broncos win it will really give them a boost heading into the '96 season. If they lose, some close to Elway said he might think about retirement. The Broncos trailed 28-17 going into the fourth quarter. Elway led the Broncos all the way with one of his classic fourth quarter drives. A Jason Elam field goal won it late for Denver 31-28, and the Broncos knocked the Raiders out of any playoff contention.

December 23rd 2000. SF at Denver: The day before Christmas Eve the Broncos hosted the 49ers in the last ever game at Mile High Stadium. The Broncos were 10-5 and had a playoff spot wrapped up. The pounded the Niners in the Mile High swan song 38-9.

Christmas Night 2004. Denver at Tennessee: The Broncos were 8-6 and needed some a win and some help to get into the playoffs. On Christmas Night, the Broncos travled to Nashville to take on the Titans. Denver came out firing and took a 17-7 lead early. They kept the pressure on and buried the Titans 37-16 to get to 9-6. The Jaguars lost the next day at home to Houston and that opened the door for the Broncos who made the playoffs at 10-6.

Christmas Eve 2005. Oakland at Denver: With a playoff spot already clinched, Denver was really pushing for the AFC West crown, a home playoff game, and a first round bye. All that would be accomplished if they could beat a last-place Raiders team. The Broncos jumped out early on the Raiders with a big lead, and pounded them the rest of the way with 22-3 victory and an AFC West Title.

Christmas Eve 2006. Cincy at Denver: This was a miracle game for the Broncos. After starting the season 7-2, Denver lost two in a row, and Mike Shanahan benched Jake Plummer for rookie Jay Cutler. After two defeats in Cutler's first two starts, Denver was 7-6. After a blowout win at Arizona, the Broncos stood at 8-6 and hosted an 8-6 Cincy team in Denver. A back and forth game came down to the fourth quarter. The Broncos led 24-17 when Carson Palmer throw for a touchdown to cut the score to 24-23. The Bengals were an extra point away from tying the game and sending it to overtime, but there was a bad snap on the extra point and the Broncos held on for a 24-23 win.

Hopefully, this Christmas Eve will provide Bronco fans another memorable XMas gift in the form of a win at Buffalo. Onto the picks for Week 16............

Last Week's Record: 8-7-1

Overall Record: 93-104-13

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)


Oakland (+3) over KANSAS CITY: This is one of those games where you are better off just picking the winner out of a hat. How can the Raiders respond after losing three in a row and blowing a 13 point lead late in the fourth quarter at home to Lions last week? The Chiefs played very well in their win over the previously undefeated Packers last week. In this day and age everyone seems to only look at last week's game for a reference point. A lot of people have already kicked dirt on the Raiders, but I don't think they are done yet. Take the Raiders and the points on the road this week.


TENNESSEE (-7) over Jacksonville: After an awful loss to the winless Colts last week, the Titans try to regroup and get back into the wild card mix. They should take care of business at home this week. Also, do you think Jacksonville will now look to take a QB in the first round again this year after watching Blaine Gabbert play?


Arizona (+4) over CINCINNATI: The Cardinals have been on fire since they were 4-7. I liked the Bengals all week, but when I looked at the spread and laid all the chips on the table, I decided to go with the Cards. This one smells like a 20-17 game either way.


NEW ENGLAND (-9) over Miami: The Patriots offense is really, really good. We know how bad their defense can be, but Tom Brady is rolling with this group on the offensive side. They can smell the blood in the water for the 1 seed, and I think they win this game by 10.


BALTIMORE (-12) over Cleveland: Thanks to the Browns my sleeper pick for 2011 looks silly and foolish. The Ravens come in after getting embarrassed by the Chargers last Sunday Night. One thing we do know about the 2011 Ravens: At home they are good, and they take care of weaker teams in Baltimore. This should be an easy win for Baltimore.


New York Giants (+3) over NEW YORK JETS: It is the Battle of New York. I have no idea how this game is going to play out. I could make a case for either team. One thing I do know is that one fanbase is going to be extremely miserable, angry, and drunk on Christmas Eve.


Minnesota (+7) over WASHINGTON: I have had a good feeling for the Vikings all season long. For some reason, I see them pulling the upset this week. Although this season has been a disappointment in Washington, the Redskins have played hard the last month. If they get a QB in the offseason (Peyton Manning?) or in the draft (RG III), then Mike Shanahan will have a dangerous team heading into 2012.


CAROLINA (-7) over Tampa Bay: I have also been right about the Panthers a lot this year. I'm going to ride them again at home against the Bucs, who have mailed it in this year.


St.Louis (+14) over PITTSBURGH: I have been burned by the Steelers three times this year when they were heavy favorites (Indy, Jax, and KC), and with Ben Roethlisberger's status for this week uncertain, I'll take the Rams and the points. This looks like a classic ugly win for the Steelers. I'm thinking something along the lines of 17-6.


DETROIT (-2) over San Diego: Everyone loves the Chargers this week, and they are playing great football, but the Lions can clinch a playoff spot with a win at home on Christmas Eve. The Lions, who haven't been in the playoffs since 1999, and their fans deserve to win this game at home and clinch the wild card. It would be quite a scene if they can pull it off at home this week. I hope they get it done.


SEATTLE (+3) over San Francisco: I'm riding the Seahawks and their recent surge. If Seattle didn't blow a 4th quarter lead at home to Washington a month ago, they could be sitting at 8-6 right now. At 7-7, they have a slim chance to make the playoffs, but give Pete Carroll credit. The Seahawks have played hard down the stretch.


Philadelphia (+2) over DALLAS: Here is another game that I have no idea how this will play out. One thought is that the NFC East is Dallas' division this year, and the Cowboys will make a statement and set themselves up to win the division by putting the nail in the Eagles' coffin. The other thought is that the Eagles are red-hot and in the midst of making an incredible run to win the NFC East at 8-8. I don't know how this is going to play out, so I'll take the road team.


GREEN BAY (-12) over Chicago: The Packers get back on track with a Christmas Night shellacking of the visiting Bears. Chicago is starting Josh McCown at QB, and this one could get ugly very fast.


NEW ORLEANS (-6) over Atlanta: The Saints will win this game, but it will be a tough game for them. The Falcons can lose this game, but still clinch a playoff berth with a win at home in Week 17 over the Bucs.



BUFFALO (+3) over Denver: I haven't had a good feeling about this game all week for the Broncos. They have to travel all the way to Buffalo on a short week, play early, throw in the Christmas factor, and the weather will probably be the worst the Broncos have played in all season long. I could see the Broncos struggling in this one and getting off to a very slow start. At some point I could see Denver just throwing their hands up and saying "Forget about this one, we'll just go for the division next week at home vs KC." To me this season is just destined for an Orton vs. Tebow matchup in Week 17 with the AFC West on the line.


Final Score: Bills-23 Denver-16

No comments: