Week 17 Picks!

Week 17 is upon us, and has there been an NFL season that has moved as quick as this one? From the end of the lockout to free agency, and then training camp and preseason came and went, and the regular season started and now the next thing you know it is already Week 17. The NFL season just goes too fast. For my gambling purposes, I started the year very slow, and I fell under .500 for a while. I finally figured everything out, and my last month has given me a shot for a .500 record. Here we go with my Week 17 picks, and a look at the big game in Denver.....

Last Week's Record: 10-6

Overall Record: 103-110-13

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

PHILADELPHIA (-7) over Washington: The Eagles are looking to finish 8-8 after a 4-8 record marred their "dream" season. Let me be the first to introduce the Eagles as next year's "Bounce Back" team of 2012. You can just pencil the Eagles in for 11 wins next year-especially when they hire Steve Spagnuolo as their defensive coordinator. As for the Redskins, Mike Shanahan is left to answer questions about his future in Washington. Shanny is currently 11-20 in two years in D.C. The Skins will have to find a QB next year or Shanny will be on his way out.

ATLANTA (-10) over Tampa Bay: The Falcons are headed to the playoffs and most likely the 6 seed in the NFC. Atlanta was able to take advantage of beating up on some of the weaker teams in the league this season, and they probably won't make it past the Wild Card round because the Saints will be waiting for them, but give Mike Smith credit. Here is his resume in four years as the Falcons HC: 11-5, 9-7, 13-3, 10-6 and three playoff berths. Any fan would take that in a four year span. As for the Bucs, it is time to fire Raheem Morris and start over with a coach that will be asked to bring some sizzle to the Buccaneers franchise.

San Francisco (-9) over ST.LOUIS: The Niners will take care of the Rams on the road and lock up the number 2 seed. That will set up a really interesting game in the Divisional Round: Saints at 49ers. The Niners and Jim Harbaugh have had a really great season, and once again it shows you how important coaching is in the NFL. I don't know how far they will go in the playoffs, but we'll save that for another day. As for the Rams, their terrible 2011 campaign will finally end, and Steve Spagnuolo will probably get the boot. It is not all his fault. The Rams just have too many holes on their roster, and too many empty seats in the stands. It isn't a bad job because Sam Bradford is still considered a franchise QB, and whoever gets the job has a chance to build around him.

Chicago (+1) over MINNESOTA: I'll take the Bears in one of the few games that don't mean anything this week. What a tough break for the Bears this year when they lost Jay Cutler and Matt Forte. If Cutler stays healthy, the Bears would be a playoff team and would be a huge threat going into Lambeau Field in the playoffs. As for the Vikings, they have to first hope that their stadium situation gets fixed and the team remains in Minnesota. Then, they have to hope that Christian Ponder is the man at QB. Finally, they have to hope Adrian Peterson returns to form after an awful ACL injury last week. There are a lot of tough questions surrounding the Vikings heading into the offseason.

Detroit (-3) over GREEN BAY: The Packers look like they are going to rest their starters, and the Lions want to win this week to get the 5 seed. Detroit wants to avoid playing at New Orleans or San Fran in the first round, and if they get the 5 seed, then they head to either New York or Dallas. Both teams are gearing up for the playoffs, and they could actually end up meeting in the Divisional Round if things break right.

Carolina (+8) over NEW ORLEANS: The Saints will begin to dial it down as they realize that San Francisco is pummeling the Rams and getting the 2 seed in the NFC. Last year, the Saints were in a similar situation at home against Tampa Bay, and they shut it down in the second half. Expect the same here because the Saints won't care if they have to play on Wild Card Weekend. They look ready to go for another Super Bowl run. As for the Panthers, this season was a success. They will finish with at least 6 wins which is a nice improvement from last year's debacle. Also, Cam Newton looks like he is going to revolutionize the quarterback position in the NFL. He is a star, and the future is very bright for him and the Panthers. Look for the Panthers to be next year's sleeper team and make the jump just like the Lions did this year.

HOUSTON (+3) over Tennessee: I know Houston has nothing to play for, but don't you think they need a win here to gain some confidence heading into the playoffs. Losing three straight would not be a good thing, and in the NFL you can't just turn it on or off whenever you feel like it. As for the Titans, this season is something for them to build on, and the big question for them is if Jake Locker is ready to takeover next year as the team's starting QB

CINCINNATI (+3) over Baltimore: I just have a feeling the Bengals are going to win this game. I guess this would be a my "Hunch of the Week." It is a good story for the young Bengals even if no one in Cincy really supports this team. They will be a live underdog heading to Houston next week in the playoffs. As for Baltimore, this team just confuses me. They play great against Pittsburgh and other top teams, but they struggle against the weaker ones. I think they are headed for another wild card appearance and another road game to start the playoffs.

Pittsburgh (-7) over CLEVELAND: I am a little nervous about this pick, but I'll stick with the Steelers. Look for Pittsburgh to be the number two seed and have a chance to get revenge on the Ravens for what happened in the regular season. As for the Browns, my sleeper team of 2011 crashed and burned. Looking back it was a risky pick and I should have investigated it further, but I really liked it in August. They need to find a solution at QB, and I'm not so sure that Pat Shurmur was the right man for the job.

JACKSONVILLE (-3) over Indy: This game has huge meaning for the Colts. If the Colts lose, then they get the number 1 pick in the draft. If they win, and the Rams lose, then the Rams get the number one pick. Look for the Colts to play hard, but ultimately they will lose and get the first pick. This will create the number one storyline of the offseason: What will the Colts do with the first pick of the NFL Draft?

New York Jets (+3) over MIAMI: Everyone is jumping off the Jets bandwagon this week, but this seems like a game the Jets win for Rex Ryan. Regardless of what happens on Sunday, the Jets really screwed up the construction of their team this year, and everyone outside of the organization saw it coming. You can't throw Mark Sanchez under the bus for this year, and you still need to give him time to grow and develop. If the Jets don't make the playoffs this year, I think they will do a lot of soul searching and will definitely be a better team in 2012. As for the Dolphins, they have some potential. Who are they going to get to be the head coach of this franchise? What are they going to do about the QB position? Robert Griffin III could be the answer for them come April.

NEW ENGLAND (-9) over Buffalo: The Patriots smell blood in the water, and they go lock up the number one seed in the AFC. They won't be a lock to make it to the Super Bowl, but it will be fun to see if they can get there with this defense. As for the Bills, there are some pieces in place for them to build on. The question will be how far Ryan Fitzpatrick can take them.

OAKLAND (-3) over San Diego: This is the lock of the week in my opinion. The Raiders will cover in this game easily. The Raiders could very well find their way into the playoffs as a division winner or a wild card. The Chargers will have their bags packed for the offseason and Norv Turner will probably be fired by the time their plane lands back in San Diego. The Raiders will roll in the Black Hole.

Seattle (+3) over ARIZONA: Two teams that played really hard down the stretch and are both sitting at 7-8. This came is tough to call, but go with the Seahawks to get to 8-8. These two teams could be on the rise for 2012.

NEW YORK GIANTS (-3) over Dallas: I have know idea who is going to win this game, but the NFL and NBC couldn't have asked for a better game to end the regular season. Giants and Cowboys with the NFC East on the line. This is the biggest regular season game between these two rivals since the epic 1993 season finale when they played each other with homefield advantage and the NFC East on the line. All I know about this game is that it will be 27-24 with either Tony Romo or Eli Manning with the ball late. I'll take the G-Men to win it late.

Now for the main event...........The Broncos host the Chiefs in Denver. If Denver wins, they will win the AFC West. If they lose, they are most likely out unless the Raiders choke at home to the Chargers. I have had all week off to think about this game. There are things that make me confident and things that make me really nervous.

Here is what makes me nervous about this game:

-The Kyle Orton factor. You can just smell this storyline coming about a mile away. He shouldn't even be playing for the Chiefs in this game. The fact that he knows our personnel really scares me.

-The Chiefs are playing really hard for interim coach Romeo Crennel. They want him to keep the job next year, so they are playing this like a playoff game.

-The Chiefs defense pretty much shut down Tim Tebow and the Broncos in their first meeting. The Chiefs gave up a touchdown on the first drive of the game-all runs- and then gave up a long touchdown pass from Tebow to Eric Decker late in the fourth to seal it. That was pretty much it, and this Chiefs defense is playing really well down the stretch.

-The Broncos recent collapses in December.

-The Broncos offense has become predictable and conservative.

-Their defense has really played poorly the last two games.

-Brian Dawkins is out, and their young safeties have really struggled the last two weeks.

Here is what I'm confident about in this game:

-Kyle Orton is not exactly Joe Montana. I know Orton is going to be motivated to beat the Broncos, but he isn't known for having a killer instict as a QB. He never won a big game for the Broncos, so is he all of sudden going to turn into this amazing player?

-The Broncos defense has matched up well with the Chiefs skill players in the past few meetings.

-Denver is home.

-Tim Tebow. Can Tebowmania reach its' peak after the Chicago game only to come to a crashing halt like this in Week 17? Does Tebow go out with a whimper like this? It seems hard to believe that his story will end in a crushing defeat at the hands of Kyle Orton on Sunday.

All of that leads me to the only key to this game for the Broncos. This game is all about Tim Tebow. This is his moment. This is his time. He has to play well, and he has to put this team on his back and do whatever it takes to win this game on Sunday. If he has to rush for 20 carries and over 100 yards, then he has to do it. This game is about him. If he wins it, then he is the man in Denver for 2012 and beyond. The Broncos will become his team, and they will build around him. If he loses the game, then there is a good chance that the Broncos will go find some real competition for him at the quarterback position in 2012-either from a veteran or in the draft. This is Tim Tebow's moment. He has a chance to get the Broncos into the playoff for the first time since 2005. He has to take advantage and will this team to victory. Can he do it?

Sadly, I don't think so. I think the Chiefs and Kyle Orton come into Denver and bury the Broncos playoff hopes.

The Pick: Kansas City (+3) over DENVER

Final Score: KC-23 Denver-10