Week 7 Picks!

As we hit Week 7 of the NFL season, some of my preseason predictions are starting to come into view. You can already start to see some hits and misses. Some teams that I seem to be wrong about were the Titans and Panthers. I thought Tennessee would have a bounce back year from Chris Johnson, get solid play from their defense, and get enough out of the Jake Locker/Matt Hasselback combo to win 9 games and steal the AFC South. Well, I was pretty wrong about them. Their QB combo hasn't been the problem either. Chris Johnson is officially a dud, their defense is stifling at all, and they don't have an explosive player on their offense. They are 2-4 and their two wins featured a win over Lions in overtime and a late field goal win over Pittsburgh at home on a Thursday night. In the Detroit game, they scored on a punt return, a kick return, an interception, and a long touchdown on a play where the receiver jumped and snagged the ball away from the defender in mid air and all in one sequence. The won the Steeler game after Mike Tomlin coached his way out of a victory. Needless to say, the Titans winning the AFC South was a ballsy pick by me in the first place, but now it looks downright stupid. The Titans are a bad team, and I don't see them playing their way back into the AFC playoff race.

The other "miss" that I made in the preseason was overvaluing the Panthers. I was not alone on this because it seemed like the Panthers were gaining a lot of steam as September approached, but I was completely sold on Cam Newton and this team. The Newton has lost his way a little bit in the beginning of this season, but I'm not giving up on him for the rest of his career. Newton will probably still be one hell of a player and a Pro-Bowl caliber quarterback, but this year might be a year that he uses as a learning block. You can't say that for the rest of the team. Their defense has not improved, the running back tandem of Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams has not lived up to potential, and don't even get me started on Ron Rivera. At 1-4, they look bad, and it will be impossible for them to catch the 6-0 Falcons in the AFC South. Plus, they don't look like a team that is on the cusp of turning it around and making a run at a wild card spot with a 9-7 record. It just doesn't look like that is happening in Carolina this year.

After all the preseason research and study, it looks like two of my "surprise" teams are already dead in the water this year. That is what makes the NFL so great. You think have a team pegged in the preseason, but once the games start, everything seems to change.

 Onto the picks for Week 7......

Last Week's Record: 7-6-1
Overall Record: 41-45-4
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

BUFFALO (-3) over Tennessee: You can't trust the Bills but they are 3-3 at this point, and they pulled out a gutty win on the road in overtime last week at Arizona. You have the think that the Bills will play with some purpose this week at home. Look for a close game, but the Bills will win it by a touchdown.

MINNESOTA (-6) over Arizona: The Vikes got humbled last week by RG III and the Redskins, and the Cardinals lost a brutal game at home to the Bills. Both teams enter the game 4-2. One of them is legitimate and the other is not. The Vikes prove once again that they are for real.

Cleveland (+3) over INDY: The Colts were awful last week against the Jets. How the hell did they not see the fake punt with Tim Tebow coming? The Browns got their first win of the season last week, and this week they make it two in a row.

Baltimore (+7) over HOUSTON: I wasn't impressed by the Texans two weeks ago in their win over the Jets, and last week they got bombed at home by the Packers. Maybe they aren't as good as we thought they were. The Ravens lost Ray Lewis and Ladarius Webb for the season last week, but I think Joe Flacco and Ray Rice take this game over and make enough plays late to win it. This smells like a 34-31 Ravens win.

ST.LOUIS(+6) over Green Bay: The Rams will keep this game close at home this week. They probably won't win it outright, but look for a tight game and look for the Rams defense to play well. The Packers looked great in their win over the Texans last week, and at 3-3 a lot of people think the Packers are back in business, but I would be careful with them. I need to see it for a few weeks before I buy back in with Green Bay.

Dallas (-2) over CAROLINA: I love the Cowboys in this spot. They could have easily won last week at Baltimore, and this week I think they get it done with a big win on the road.

Washington (+6) over NY GIANTS: The G-Men will win this game outright, but can't you see this coming down to a late field goal? This one feels like a 23-20 Giants win late. Look for RG III to put a scare into this New York defense.

TAMPA BAY (+3) over New Orleans: You can't trust New Orleans. Although they got their first win a few weeks ago, I'm still not sold on them making a run at 1-4. The Bucs are feisty and will be ready to play. They always seem to give the Saints fits.

NEW ENGLAND (-10) over New York Jets: The Jets buried the Colts last week to even their record at 3-3, but you really can't be sold on them right now. I can't figure out a way that the Jets will be able to stop Tom Brady and the Patriots offense. I know the Pats are disappointing at 3-3 right now, but they  lost their 3 games by a combined 4 points. They could easily be 6-0, and they will prove they are the better team on Sunday.

OAKLAND (-3) over Jacksonville: I'm taking Oakland because I can't trust Blaine Gabbert on the road. Nuff said.

Pittsburgh (-1) over CINCY: The Steelers will bounce back after have 10 days to steam about their loss to the Titans a few Thursday nights ago. They will do what it takes to walk out of Cincy with a win this week.

CHICAGO (-6) over Detroit: Very quietly the Bears stand atop the NFC North at 4-1. Could they be the team to beat in the NFC right now? While everyone is talking about the Falcons, Niners, and Giants, watch out for the Bears. The Lions are 2-3, but they could easily be 0-5 right now. Their struggles will continue on Monday night in Chicago.