The 2015 AFC Championship Game features the Denver Broncos hosting the New England Patriots in what looks like the final installment of the Tom Brady and Peyton Manning rivalry. It had to come down to this. There is no other way for it to happen. Manning vs. Brady with the Super Bowl on the line. The Broncos are making their 10th AFC Championship Game appearance (I am lucky to witness 9 of these in my life), and they are looking to win the AFC for the second time in three years. Two years ago, Denver dominated the Patriots en route to a 26-16 victory. This time around, the game is back in Denver once again, but it is a very different Patriots team that is coming to Mile High. This game is going to be very tough for Denver to win, and as the week went on, I tried to come up with different scenarios in my mind that would make me feel more confident, but I am having trouble doing that. Trust me, it isn't me being too cautious or trying to use reverse psychology. Before I get to my preview and prediction of the game, I just want to say that I am really trying to soak up the Broncos being in the AFC Championship. This the Broncos second time in the AFC Title game in three years. It is the third AFC Championship since 2005. It is very rare and special to make it this far if you are rooting for your favorite team, so I feel like it is important to try and enjoy and appreciate this as much as I can. You don't know when your team is going to get back to this spot, and especially with the end of Peyton Manning's career and run in Denver on the horizon, I have to try to be mindful of just how special it is to be in this spot. With that said here is why this game scares me so much, and why I think it will be a surprise if Denver wins....
1) Tom Brady is playing at a high level. He has played as good as he has this season, and it will be very tough to derail him on Sunday. Forget about the 2-6 record in Denver, we know how good he is, and I have a tough time seeing Denver's defense stopping him. He almost beat Denver singlehandedly in Denver during the regular season on that Sunday night, and he basically had no weapons left after Gronk got hurt. He is 3-0 in the playoffs against #1 defenses historically
2) The return of Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski pose the biggest threat to the Broncos and their defense. Watching the two of them last week in the Divisional win over KC just reminded you of how lethal these two are. The Broncos really didn't stop Gronk in their regular season matchup, and Edelman has really killed Denver when he has played them the last couple of years. I don't know how Denver is going to slow down these two. Throw in the fact that Chris Harris, who is the Broncos best player in the secondary, is banged up and not 100% with a shoulder injury, and the Gronk/Edelman duo really becomes problematic.
3) We know how good Bill Belichick is in these big games, but the entire Pats coaching staff usually brings their "A" game into these contests. I can see Belichick and DC Matt Patricia frustrating the hell out of Peyton Manning. I could also see OC Josh McDaniels outsmarting Wade Phillips. The coaching staff of New England gives them an edge in this game.
4) The New England defense isn't as soft as some people think. Rob Ninkovich always plays well against the Broncos, and Chandler Jones was great against them in the regular season. I think they matchup well with Denver in the secondary, and for this game they are healthy on defense with Jamie Collins and Donta Hightower playing in the game. I don't see Denver running all over them, and they can cover well, so how can Denver manufacture enough points to win this game?
5) I have a hard time believing that the Broncos are going to be able to beat the Patriots once in the regular season and then in the postseason. It happened in 2006 with the Colts, 2010 with the Jets, and 2012 with the Ravens. The way that first game played out in Denver, I just don't see the Patriots coming to Mile High and losing twice to this team.
6) If you didn't follow football all year long, and then decided to watch the Divisional Playoffs, then there is no way you wouldn't think that the Patriots are the better team. The truth is that the Pats are the better team, and I just think there is no way around it. I feel like the Broncos are about to walk into a buzzsaw on Sunday. It turns the tables on what it was like for New England when they came into Denver two years ago, and the Broncos were clearly the better team and proved it.
7) The final part that scares me is the fact that Belichick and Brady have always had the upperhand on Peyton Manning in this rivalry. They have gotten the best of him more than he has gotten the best of them. In what could be Manning's final game ever, doesn't it just seem like Brady and Belichick will be the ones to put him away for good? It doesn't seem fair, but it has been that way the whole rivalry, so why would it happen any other way.
All is not totally hopeless for the Broncos. There are some reasons why you can make a case that the Broncos will pull the upset on Sunday. Here is what could be in their favor...
1) The Broncos do have homefield advantage. As a result of their win over the Pats in November in Mile High, the Broncos get to host the AFC Championship. They are 5-1 in AFC Title Games at home. It will certainly help them, and the crowd will be electric from the start.
2) As good as Tom Brady and that offense is for New England, the Broncos have the best defense in the NFL. They have rushers that could potentially get to Brady with Von Miller, Demarcus Ware (He missed the first game between the two teams), Derek Wolfe, and Malik Jackson. They have a secondary that can cover multiple receiving options, and they have a front seven that can stop the run. If anyone can slow down the Pats offense, Denver's defense has about as good of a shot to do it. Don't forget about the Broncos defense. Remember that.
3) The Broncos have won weird, close, and nerve-racking games all year long against good competition. If they are going to win this game, it will follow the same formula. If this game is slow and ugly, then the Broncos will be fine with that because that is the style they played all year long. Turnovers by the defense and timely plays by the offense helped them to get to 13 wins, and maybe it will work in their favor one more time. They got the big break all year, so maybe it is their year and they will get that break again on Sunday.
4) This looks like it could be the end of Peyton Manning's career. As tough of a season he had with the injuries and the poor play, he still finds himself in the AFC Championship Game with a chance to go to another Super Bowl. Maybe this is how it is supposed to end? Maybe he will get a chance to go back to the Super Bowl and ride off into the sunset. This looks like this is his last chance, so maybe destiny and fate on our his side this last time. Brady going to get more opportunities after this year, but this looks like the end for Peyton Manning. Maybe-just maybe- it is supposed to end with him going back to another Super Bowl and hoisting the Lombardi Trophy.
Prediction: New England (-3) over DENVER: As much as I try to build a case for the Broncos, I just think that the Patriots are healthy and simply the better team at this point. If Peyton Manning were his vintage self, then I would call this game a toss up, but Manning isn't the same player, and the Broncos just won't have enough to keep pace with the Pats. I hate to say it, but I could see the Pats running away with this one early in the second half.
Final Score: Patriots-33 Broncos-17
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