Monday, January 18, 2016

Broncos-Steelers Divisional Playoff Preview

Here we go. The Broncos run to Super Bowl 50 begins on Sunday with the Pittsburgh Steelers coming to Denver to take on the Broncos in the last game of the playoff weekend. At this point in the year, any team left in the NFL playoffs has a chance to get to the Super Bowl and win it. The Steelers are no different. This game scares the hell out of me. There are a lot of factors to consider when looking at this game from a Broncos fan perspective. Here are the things that scare me going into this game.....

1) It starts with Ben Roethlisberger. I know he has a sprained AC joint and a partially separated shoulder in his throwing as a result of a sack he took in the AFC Wild Card game at Cincy last week. The fact that he came back in and finished the game tells you all you need to know about Ben's availability this Sunday. He's playing. As long as Big Ben is out there, then he will be a factor. He can win this game on his own. He is just that good. He ripped the Broncos defense apart in Pittsburgh in Week 15, and he was the only QB to throw for over 300 yards this year on this Broncos defense. We have also seen Big Ben play very well through some really painful injuries, so I expect him to be at his best.

2) The Steelers offense has a lot of weapons and Antonio Brown completely torched Chris Harris in the first meeting. Harris has been our best CB for the past three years, and he was no match for Brown last month. He is only guy to really beat Harris at all this year. Brown is out of the game with a concussion, but the Steelers have Big Ben at the controls and they have other weapons. You have to worry about Martavis Bryant and Markus Wheaton ripping them apart, and someone like Heath Miller making plays as well.

3) I have no idea what to expect from Peyton Manning. In the first meeting with the Steelers, Manning was injured, so Brock Osweiler got the start. We know how that game went: Brock played really well in the first half, built a 27-10 lead, went ice cold in the second half, and the Broncos lost 34-27. I don't know what is going to happen with Manning starting this game. Are the Broncos going to run up tempo, no-huddle? Are they going to try to put Manning under center more and run the ball more? In the first matchup, the Broncos killed the Steelers by spreading them out and throwing the ball down the field in chunks. Can Manning even make those throws this week? The Peyton Manning question is the biggest factor in this game for the Broncos.

4) The Steelers seem to have nine lives. Think about it: They lost at Baltimore in Week 16 to a 4-10 Ravens team. They needed the Jets to lose to Buffalo and a win over Cleveland in Week 17 just to make the playoffs. They got the break they needed when the Jets lost, and they were on the verge of losing at Cincy last week until Jeremy Hill fumble and the Bengals melted down at the end. They looked like they were going to miss the playoffs entirely two weeks ago, and now they are here in the Divisional Playoffs. Perhaps they are on the verge of going on some magical run just like they did in 2005.

5) The injuries to Roethlisberger and Brown will be a major storyline heading into this game, but I think the Steelers will use that as motivation. They know they are heavy underdogs, they are beat up going into the game, and they will use that to get themselves to play fast and loose and with nothing to lose. That is always a dangerous combination when you are in the playoffs. God, this team scares me.

6) Next, the Broncos have played low-scoring, tight games the entire year. That is not going to change this week. Forget about the injury to Big Ben because you know he is playing. Forget about the fact that Antonio Brown is not playing. Forget about the fact that the Steelers are playing in their fourth straight road game dating back to Week 16. Forget about the fact that Denver is at home and coming off a bye with the #1 defense in the NFL. All that won't matter come kickoff on Sunday. This will be a close game no matter what. I expect it to be a very tough game for the Broncos to win.

7) Finally, maybe there is a revenge factor in play here for the Steelers. The last time these two played in a playoff game was the epic 2011 AFC Wild Card Game in Denver. Yes, the Tim Tebow to Demaryius Thomas OT game that ripped the heart out of the Steelers 29-23. I worry that karma might come back to bite the Broncos and the football Gods will give the Steelers one back in return for the Tebow game.

Prediction: Pittsburgh(+6) over DENVER: This line is way too high. I just think there are too many question marks surrounding Peyton Manning and his play. I don't care that Big Ben and Antonio Brown are banged up. I think the Steelers and Roethlisberger will do enough to go into Denver and take down the Broncos.

Final Score: Steelers-27 Broncos-17

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