NFL Week 1 Picks

The NFL is back! And so is the opportunity to try and finish a season over .500 in the picks column. A few things about Week 1 before I make my picks. First, Week 1 is always very sloppy, so expect to see some 9-6, 13-10, or 16-13 type of scores. Second, there is always one really big upset that no one expects to see in Week 1. The key is trying to find that game on the schedule. Lastly, it is really hard to get a judge of who is going to be really good or really bad in Week 1. Last year, I had a disastrous start to the season picking games in Week 1 and it set me back for the entire year. It is really hard to get a feel for teams heading into Week 1 and coming out of it as well. Anyway, the NFL is back and all is right with the world. Here are the picks for Week 1........

Overall Record:
Thursday Night Record:
HOME TEAM IN CAPS:

New England (-9) over BUFFALO: Interesting game for both teams. The last time the Pats lost a season opener was in 2003 against the Bills. E.J. Manuel will be ready to go for the game, but I have a feeling he will have a tough time against the Pats defense. Look for a close game throughout with the Pats pulling away late in the fourth quarter.

PITTSBURGH (-7) over Tennessee: An easy game to pick for me. Forget about how bad the Steelers looked in preseason, they will be fine. Look for the Steelers to roll in their debut at home.

NEW ORLEANS (-3) over Atlanta: The best game of Week 1 should be a thriller. I expect big things from the Saints this year. This one should go back and forth, but look for a late victory by the Saints. Think along the lines of 31-27.

Tampa Bay (-3) over NY JETS: Rough day for Geno Smith in his debut as the Jets QB. Look for Tampa Bay to jump on the Jets early and not look back.

Kansas City (-3) over JACKSONVILLE: The Chiefs will go down to Jacksonville, handle the heat, and take care of business on the road. It won't look pretty at times, but what great way for Andy Reid to start his coaching career in KC with a win over the pitiful Jags.

Cincinnati (+3) over CHICAGO: I love this matchup for the Bengals. I think Cincy wins this game outright. Their defense will confuse and frustrate Jay Cutler all day. Look for the Bengals to win this game going away.

Miami (PICK) over CLEVELAND: I have a lot of faith in the Dolphins this year, and I think they take care of business at Cleveland this week. If Miami loses this game, then they might not recover for the rest of the year. They need to make a statement and they will.

CAROLINA (+4) over Seattle: Upset of the day goes to the Panthers. For some reason, I think this game is going to be closer than a lot of people think. Maybe it is the whole West Coast to East Coast trip that could trip up the Seahakws, but look for the Panthers to shock the NFL world with a huge upset.

DETROIT (-5) over Minnesota: Detroit needs to get off to a fast start, and I think they will at home over their division rival. I got a feeling Christian Ponder is in for a rough day against that Lions defense on Sunday.

INDY (-8) over Oakland: Another easy game to pick. The Colts and Andrew Luck should cruise to a very comfortable win at home over the Raiders and Terrelle Pryor.

Arizona (+5) over ST.LOUIS: I like the Cardinals to either upset the Rams or at least keep it close. I think the Rams will be much improved this year, but I think Arizona will surprise some people early on. Look for a tight one that could go either way in the end.

Green Bay (+4.5) over SAN FRANCISCO: The Packers get revenge from their playoff loss to the Niners. I'm curious to see how GB defends Colin Kaepernick and that 49ers offense. Look for the Packers to make a statement early on, and Aaron Rodgers to bring his "A" game.

DALLAS (-3) over NY Giants: The Cowboys will finally beat Eli Manning and the Giants in their new stadium. This will be a close game-just like every other time-but Dallas will find a way to win it late.

Philly (+4) over WASHINGTON: I'm a little worried about RG III after he didn't take one snap the entire preseason. Two things factor into this pick: RG III's rust and the surprising play of Michael Vick and the Eagles offense.

Houston (-3) over SAN DIEGO: The second half of the ESPN Monday Night Football doubleheader is a decent game. I think San Diego keeps it close for three quarters, but look for the Texans to pull away in the fourth quarter and win the game comfortably.