Week 4 Picks

Week 4 is upon us, and as we head to final week of September a few things jump out at me early in this  2013 season. In the NFC, there are some notable teams that have gotten off to slow starts. In the NFC East, the Giants and Redskins both stand at 0-3. Robert Griffin's return from injury is the reason for Washington starting slow, and there is a chance for them to get back in the hunt if RG III gets healthier and plays better in October. The Giants look done, and it may be time for a reboot of their roster. The Packers started 1-2 after blowing a 30-14 lead at Cincy last week. Green Bay has their bye this week, but they should rebound nicely and get back on track soon enough. The Falcons also started 1-2, but they easily could be 3-0. It would be a surprise if they don't turn things around quickly too. In the NFC West, the Niners were 1-2, but rebounded with a 35-11 shellacking of the Rams on Thursday night. In the AFC, the only real surprise is the slow start by the 0-3 Steelers. They have a chance to get their first win this week over the Vikings, but it doesn't look like the Steelers will be in it for the long haul. As September ends and October almost begins, it will be interesting to see what happens to that group of teams. Onto the picks for Week 4.....
Disclaimer: I didn't get home in time to make a pick for Thursday night's San Francisco-St.Louis game, so I'll only be picking the games for Sunday and Monday night.

Last Week's Record: 5-10-1
Overall Record: 23-23-4
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

Pittsburgh (-2) over MINNESOTA (In London): London gets the pleasure of watching two 0-3 teams. How pissed are Jim Nantz and Phil Simms with the fact that they have to go over to England to do this game for CBS? Take the Steelers in a true "Do or Die" game for them.

Baltimore (-3) over BUFFALO: The Bills always screw me. Everytime I pick them-last week I had them over the Jets- they always screw me. I'm not falling for it this week either. Take the Ravens on the road to get to 3-1.

Cincy (-3) over CLEVELAND: I just can't see the Browns getting to 2-2 with a home win over the Bengals. Cincy got a season-defining win last week in their comeback over the Packers. This will be a close game, but look for the Bengals to find a way to win in the 4th quarter.

JACKSONVILLE (+9) over Indy: Everyone is patting the Colts on the back for how they handled the Niners last week in Candlestick. Watch out for a trap game this week for the Colts with Seattle looming next week. I can't believe I am actually taking the Jags, but what the hell!

HOUSTON (+3) over Seattle: Interesting game because Seattle has to make the trip to Houston and the Texans got buried last week at Baltimore. The Seahawks are clearly the better team, but I have a feeling that the Texans will bounce back this week with the upset at home.

Arizona (+3) over TAMPA BAY: Josh Freeman gets benched for Mike Glennon, so this game does have the potential for a spirited Bucs effort. The Cards haven't been that bad so far this year, and I'll take them as an underdog again this week.

DETROIT (-3) over Chicago: I love the Lions in this one. At home, defense gets after Cutler, and the Lions jump on the Bears early and never look back.

KANSAS CITY (-4) over NY Giants: The Giants are toasted. This will be a long day for Eli Manning and the G-Men as they head into hostile territory at Arrowhead. The Chiefs will roll and make it look easy in the process.

TENNESSEE (-3) over NY Jets: Interesting game featuring two teams at 2-1. This will be a close game, but I am starting to believe in Jake Locker a little bit. Look for the Titans to win one of those 19-14 kind of games.

SAN DIEGO (+3) over Dallas: Do you really trust the Cowboys? The sad part is that they will probably win the NFC East this year with a 9-7 or 8-8 record. The Chargers have played pretty well so far this year, and they will surprise Dallas at home this week.

Washington (-3) over OAKLAND: As tempting as it is to pick the Raiders, I'll take RG III and the Redskins in a must-win game. The Raiders are feisty with Terrelle Pryor at QB, but look for the Skins to find a way to get out of Oakland with the win.

ATLANTA (-2) over New England: A really good Sunday night game to end the day. The Falcons are 1-2, but I think they will be fine this year. The Pats come in 3-0, but they don't look like the vintage Patriots on offense. This feels like a 27-23 Atlanta win in the Georgia Dome.

Miami (+7) over NEW ORLEANS: What a great Monday Night Football game for ESPN. Who would have thought that the Dolphins and the Saints would be battling in a game of two 3-0 teams? The Saints are hard to bet against at home, but we are due for a good MNF game, so I'll take the Dolphins to keep it close.

Philly (+11) over DENVER: The last time Michael Vick played at Denver was in 2004. He absolutely destroyed the Broncos in that game, and it gave me nightmares the rest of that season. He returns with a Philly team that is a little humbled after the last two weeks. At 1-2, the Eagles are dangerous because any given week they could get going and put up like 34 points. I don't like the fact that the Eagles played last Thursday night, and they have 10 days to prepare for the Broncos, and Denver just played this past Monday night. This is a tricky game for the Broncos, and I could see them getting tripped up in this spot, and they going to Dallas and blowing the doors off the Cowboys next week.

Final Score: Eagles-33 Broncos-30