NFL Week 1 Picks!

It's BACK! The NFL returns and the 2014 gets going with a full slate of games on Sunday and Monday. Week 1 usually features some upsets and some crazy games, so gamblers should beware. One point of emphasis I would like to make while watching Week 1 is the point of emphasis that the league made in the offseason. They are going to call a lot more defensive holding and illegal contact calls on the defense. If you watched the preseason, then you saw about a million penalties in this area. I think it will die down as the season goes on, but I think the flags will be flying in the first month of the season. That could really sway some games, and it definitely will create more offense early in the year. Last year, I finished 10 games over .500, so I look to duplicate that feat this year. As I said before, Week 1 is tricky, so hopefully I can get out of the gate on the right foot. Onto the picks for Week 1...

Last Year's Record: 128-118-12
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

New Orleans (-3) over ATLANTA: I like the Falcons to get back to the playoffs this year, but I'm going against them in Week 1. This is a great first game between these two NFC South rivals, and both of them will be playing in January, but I look for Drew Brees to find a way to win this game late.

Minnesota (+3.5) over ST. LOUIS: The Rams' season got blown up by the Sam Bradford injury, and I think the Vikings could be sneaky good this year. Take the Vikings on the road to pull the slight upset.

PITTSBURGH (-6) over Cleveland: How long do we have to wait for Cleveland to pull Brian Hoyer for Johnny Manziel? Take Dick LeBeau against anyone the Browns throw up there in this game.

Jacksonville (+11) over PHILLY: The Eagles will win the game outright, but the Jags will keep it close and at least get a backdoor cover. This is probably the least interesting game of Week 1. By the way, all of a sudden people are picking the Eagles as their darkhouse Super Bowl team out of the NFC. I think we are giving them a little too much credit on that one.

NY JETS (-4) over Oakland: The Jets get a gift for the opening game of the season as the Raiders come all the way East for an early start. I'll take Rex Ryan preparing for a rookie QB like Derek Carr any day of the week. If the Jets lose this game, then their season might be in jeopardy.

BALTIMORE (-1.5) over Cincy: I've loved this line for a month. Here is my scenario for this game: The home crowd gets the Ravens going early, Baltimore uses that momentum to grab an early lead, and the Ravens defense jumps all over an unsuspecting Andy Dalton for an easy win at home.

CHICAGO (-6) over Buffalo: This is the second least interesting game of the week. The Bears get a bad offensive team in their own building to start the year. Look for the Bears runaway win to start the year.

HOUSTON (-2) over Washington: This is an intriguing game as RG III makes his way back to Texas for a date with the Texans in Week 1. This might be one of the closest games of the week. I'll take the Texans at home to start off the Bill O'Brien era, but this will be a fun game to watch. Expect a nail biter.

Tennessee (+5) over KANSAS CITY: This has the makings of a game where things break right for Tennessee and after the game you are wondering if this whole Ken Whisenhunt-Jake Locker thing is going to work out this year. This is one of my upset specials of Week 1.

New England (-4) over MIAMI: This is one of the best games of the early starts in Week 1. Miami usually has an advantage in September at home in 1:00 games. It is usually stifling hot and humid. Maybe they can use that to their advantage and shock the Pats. I doubt it because Tom Brady will find a way to gut this game out for New England.

TAMPA BAY (PICK) over Carolina: This is a pretty nondescript game for the doubleheader on Sunday afternoon. I don't see a lot out of both of these teams this year, but look for Tampa Bay to find a way to win this game. This has 16-10 written all over it.

DALLAS (+5) over San Francisco: I'm 34 years old and I remember when this was THE RIVALRY in the NFL in the 90s. They were the two best teams by far in the league, and both of them had all the best players. It was like the Cold War between the United States and Soviet Union. As for Sunday's game, I have a feeling the Cowboys play really well and maybe even pull an upset on the 49ers.

NY Giants (+5) over DETROIT: This game goes two ways. The first scenario is that Detroit comes out clicking on all cylinders and the Giants look sloppy and the Lions cruise to a 31-10 win. The other scenario is that the Giants look great on offense, totally jump on Detroit early, and never look back in a convincing win. I'll take the G-Men to surprise some people on Monday Night Football.

ARIZONA (-3) over San Diego: The late doubleheader game on Monday Night Football is an interesting one in the desert. A lot of people are starting to pick San Diego as a legitimate contender in the AFC this year. I've seen a lot of places that have the Chargers taking the AFC West instead of Denver. I'm not so sure I put all that faith in Mike McCoy just yet. This game smells like a really close one with the Cards pulling it out at the end.