Last Week’s Record: 5-10-1
Overall Record: 9-21-2
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)
San Diego (+3) over BUFFALO: The Chargers showed some serious muscle in their defeat of the Seahawks last week. You have to think SD will seriously challenge Denver in the AFC West and the other top teams in the AFC this year. I like the 2-0 start by Buffalo, but I think the Chargers will find a way to win this game. Fun game though.
Dallas (-1) over ST.LOUIS: Dallas is going to screw with me this year-I just know it. I picked them in Week 1 and they got killed by San Fran. I went against them in Week 2 and they upset the Titans. I'll take them this week, and if they screw me over again by losing to Austin Davis and the Rams, then I am done with them.
Washington (+7) over PHILLY: With RG III out indefinitely, the Skins turn to Kirk Cousins, who looked good in relief last week in the win over the Jaguars. A lot of people felt Cousins was actually a better fit for this team over RG III, and now we get to find out. I have a feeling this game will be closer than people think.
NY GIANTS (+2) over Houston: As bad as the Giants have looked, I can't see them going 0-3 for the second straight year. This will be one of those ugly games where the Giants finally catch a break and win 19-16 on a late field goal. This is also my last stand with the Giants.
NEW ORLEANS (-8) over Minnesota: Saints are at home with the following: 0-2 start, Minnesota still reeling from the Adrian Peterson situation, and Matt Cassel on the road in a dome. Thanks, I'll take the Saints giving eight.
CINCY (-7) over Tennessee: You can start to build the case that the Bengals are right there with the Broncos and Patriots as the elite contenders in the AFC. Nothing suggests that the Titans will come into Cincy and change that thought this week.
Baltimore (-1) over CLEVELAND: We'll see how the Ray Rice fallout continues to affect this team, but you have to think the Ravens will get the job done on the road against Cleveland this week.
Green Bay (+3) over DETROIT: I'm a little worried about the Packers here. Blowout loss to Seattle on opening night, then a come-from-behind win over the Jets at home last week. What kind of team do they have? I will take them on the road as underdogs, but I'm a little shaky with this pick. It wouldn't surprise me if you looked up in the 3rd quarter and this game was Lions-27 Packers-10 or something like that.
JACKSONVILLE (+7) over Indy: The Colts will win the game, but we have established early on that the Colts have some liabilities: No running game, Trent Richardson really blows, Andrew Luck will have to put everything on his shoulders this year, no Robert Mathis is really bad for them, and any quality QB will torch them. Now, the Jags are still sticking with Chad Henne, so that should help the Colts, but I think the Jags keep it close before Luck pulls it out late.
NEW ENGLAND (-13) over Oakland: The Pats are at home with the 0-2 Raiders coming across the country for an early game for the second time in three weeks. This is a no-brainer no matter how high the spread is.
ARIZONA (+3) over San Francisco: Arizona could be 3-0 after this game, and you know why I am picking them as a home underdog: I still don't trust Colin Kaepernick. He killed the 49ers the last game, and he is a hit or miss type of player. Take the Cards and their defense at home.
Miami (-3) over Kansas City: KC was valiant in defeat last week at Denver even after they lost Jamaal Charles after the first series. The Dolphins went up to Buffalo last week and got hammered every which way. At 1-1, I still think the Dolphins are a pretty good team, so I would expect them to find a way to eek this one out at home.
Pittsburgh (+4) over CAROLINA: The Panthers defense scares me against this Steeler offense, but I am going to go with my gut and take the Steelers. Look for Big Ben to make one of those ridiculous back and forth scramble throws to keep a drive alive, and then look for the Steelers to win it late.
Chicago (+3) over NY JETS: Normally, I would pick the Jets because I could see Jay Cutler having one of those nightmare games that he tends to throw out there every year, but I can't trust the Jets secondary in this game at all. How the hell are they going to stop Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffrey, and Martellus Bennett? I just can't see it, and the Bears are the underdog, so I'll take them on Monday night.
SEATTLE (-4.5) over Denver: The main event game on Sunday. The Super Bowl rematch in the late window on CBS with Jim Nantz and Phil Simms. I love how the NFL made this a late start on Sunday instead of a SNF or MNF game. I'm looking forward to it. I think that the Broncos can take more from this game psychologically if they lose but keep it close. If they get blown out again, which could definitely happen since this game is in Seattle, then that could really affect them going forward this year. I think they will certainly play better than they did in the Super Bowl, but this is a tall order. A few aspects of this game that will affect the outcome:
-Can Denver stop Marshawn Lynch and the playmaking of Russel Wilson?
-Can the return of Wes Welker kickstart the Broncos offense?
-Will Peyton Manning challenge Richard Sherman?
-Can the Broncos protect Manning from the Seattle pass rush?
Those will be the keys to this game, and if the Broncos can succeed in three of those four areas, then they have a chance to win. Overall, I think this is too much of a buzz saw for them to overcome. Plus, Seattle is coming off a loss, and I can't see them going 1-2 with a loss at home. Look for Seattle to jump on top early, and for Manning to make a rally late, but the Seahawks are just too good to lose in this spot.
Final Score: Seahawks-28 Denver-20
San Diego (+3) over BUFFALO: The Chargers showed some serious muscle in their defeat of the Seahawks last week. You have to think SD will seriously challenge Denver in the AFC West and the other top teams in the AFC this year. I like the 2-0 start by Buffalo, but I think the Chargers will find a way to win this game. Fun game though.
Dallas (-1) over ST.LOUIS: Dallas is going to screw with me this year-I just know it. I picked them in Week 1 and they got killed by San Fran. I went against them in Week 2 and they upset the Titans. I'll take them this week, and if they screw me over again by losing to Austin Davis and the Rams, then I am done with them.
Washington (+7) over PHILLY: With RG III out indefinitely, the Skins turn to Kirk Cousins, who looked good in relief last week in the win over the Jaguars. A lot of people felt Cousins was actually a better fit for this team over RG III, and now we get to find out. I have a feeling this game will be closer than people think.
NY GIANTS (+2) over Houston: As bad as the Giants have looked, I can't see them going 0-3 for the second straight year. This will be one of those ugly games where the Giants finally catch a break and win 19-16 on a late field goal. This is also my last stand with the Giants.
NEW ORLEANS (-8) over Minnesota: Saints are at home with the following: 0-2 start, Minnesota still reeling from the Adrian Peterson situation, and Matt Cassel on the road in a dome. Thanks, I'll take the Saints giving eight.
CINCY (-7) over Tennessee: You can start to build the case that the Bengals are right there with the Broncos and Patriots as the elite contenders in the AFC. Nothing suggests that the Titans will come into Cincy and change that thought this week.
Baltimore (-1) over CLEVELAND: We'll see how the Ray Rice fallout continues to affect this team, but you have to think the Ravens will get the job done on the road against Cleveland this week.
Green Bay (+3) over DETROIT: I'm a little worried about the Packers here. Blowout loss to Seattle on opening night, then a come-from-behind win over the Jets at home last week. What kind of team do they have? I will take them on the road as underdogs, but I'm a little shaky with this pick. It wouldn't surprise me if you looked up in the 3rd quarter and this game was Lions-27 Packers-10 or something like that.
JACKSONVILLE (+7) over Indy: The Colts will win the game, but we have established early on that the Colts have some liabilities: No running game, Trent Richardson really blows, Andrew Luck will have to put everything on his shoulders this year, no Robert Mathis is really bad for them, and any quality QB will torch them. Now, the Jags are still sticking with Chad Henne, so that should help the Colts, but I think the Jags keep it close before Luck pulls it out late.
NEW ENGLAND (-13) over Oakland: The Pats are at home with the 0-2 Raiders coming across the country for an early game for the second time in three weeks. This is a no-brainer no matter how high the spread is.
ARIZONA (+3) over San Francisco: Arizona could be 3-0 after this game, and you know why I am picking them as a home underdog: I still don't trust Colin Kaepernick. He killed the 49ers the last game, and he is a hit or miss type of player. Take the Cards and their defense at home.
Miami (-3) over Kansas City: KC was valiant in defeat last week at Denver even after they lost Jamaal Charles after the first series. The Dolphins went up to Buffalo last week and got hammered every which way. At 1-1, I still think the Dolphins are a pretty good team, so I would expect them to find a way to eek this one out at home.
Pittsburgh (+4) over CAROLINA: The Panthers defense scares me against this Steeler offense, but I am going to go with my gut and take the Steelers. Look for Big Ben to make one of those ridiculous back and forth scramble throws to keep a drive alive, and then look for the Steelers to win it late.
Chicago (+3) over NY JETS: Normally, I would pick the Jets because I could see Jay Cutler having one of those nightmare games that he tends to throw out there every year, but I can't trust the Jets secondary in this game at all. How the hell are they going to stop Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffrey, and Martellus Bennett? I just can't see it, and the Bears are the underdog, so I'll take them on Monday night.
SEATTLE (-4.5) over Denver: The main event game on Sunday. The Super Bowl rematch in the late window on CBS with Jim Nantz and Phil Simms. I love how the NFL made this a late start on Sunday instead of a SNF or MNF game. I'm looking forward to it. I think that the Broncos can take more from this game psychologically if they lose but keep it close. If they get blown out again, which could definitely happen since this game is in Seattle, then that could really affect them going forward this year. I think they will certainly play better than they did in the Super Bowl, but this is a tall order. A few aspects of this game that will affect the outcome:
-Can Denver stop Marshawn Lynch and the playmaking of Russel Wilson?
-Can the return of Wes Welker kickstart the Broncos offense?
-Will Peyton Manning challenge Richard Sherman?
-Can the Broncos protect Manning from the Seattle pass rush?
Those will be the keys to this game, and if the Broncos can succeed in three of those four areas, then they have a chance to win. Overall, I think this is too much of a buzz saw for them to overcome. Plus, Seattle is coming off a loss, and I can't see them going 1-2 with a loss at home. Look for Seattle to jump on top early, and for Manning to make a rally late, but the Seahawks are just too good to lose in this spot.
Final Score: Seahawks-28 Denver-20
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