Thursday, January 17, 2019

Conference Championship Predictions and Picks!

Championship Sunday has arrived and it features the top two seeds in the AFC and NFC. There are plenty of storylines heading into these two games. The legacy of Bill Belichick, Tom Brady and the Patriots. Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes looking to send Kansas City to their first Super Bowl since the merger. The Saints trying to win one more Super Bowl with Drew Brees and Sean Payton. The Rams and Sean McVay trying to put a stamp on their new era. There are plenty of angles that these games will produce. I always try to look at the four potential Super Bowl matchups heading into Championship Sunday, and this is how I would rank them from most attractive to least attractive......

1) Rams vs. Patriots (McVay vs. Belichick, Rematch of Super Bowl XXXVI which kicked off Pats dynasty)

2) Saints vs. Patriots (Brees vs. Brady)

3) Chiefs vs. Rams (Rematch of 54-51 shootout from November, Andy Reid going for first Super Bowl title)

4) Chiefs vs. Saints (Mahomes vs. Brees)

Now, onto the picks for Championship Sunday....

Last Week's Playoff Record: 1-3
Overall Playoff Record: 5-3
Overall Final Regular Season Record: 126-113-14
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

NFC Championship Game
(2) Los Angeles Rams at (1) New Orleans

A Case for the Rams: They have been on the three best teams in the league all year long. They have a nice 1-2 punch going at RB with Todd Gurley and C.J. Anderson. They can score points on this Saints defense. The Rams got the monkey off their back by beating the Cowboys last week and getting their first playoff win out of the way with Sean McVay. Speaking of McVay, he did a great job getting his team ready to play and then executing their gameplan. I think he will do another excellent job this week. They are the underdogs and lost already in New Orleans this year, so they can use that as motivation. I like what Wade Phillips can come up with the second time around facing that Saints offense. The pressure is on the Saints because they are older and the Rams are just getting started on their run. A lot of people are taking the Saints because the Rams are on the road, but they can feed off of that.

A Case for the Saints: They are at home and the Superdome will be rocking because they are hosting the NFC Championship for the first time since 2009. They are so much better at home and they already beat the Rams at home this season. The Saints also got a break last week in the win over Philly, so karma might be on their side. They looked like they were in trouble in that game, but they were able to come out on top, and now they might just go on a run from there. Brees and Payton haven't won a Super Bowl since 2009 and that was the only one that they won together. Maybe it is their time to get another one. Maybe it's just their year.

Prediction: NEW ORLEANS (-3) over LA Rams: In a game that goes back and forth, the Saints pull ahead and get one last stop on the Rams to preserve the victory and head to the Super Bowl for the second time in the Brees/Payton era.

Final Score: Saints-28 Rams-24

AFC Championship Game
(2) New England at (1) Kansas City

A Case for the Patriots: It is the Patriots so you can't be surprised if they pulled the upset here in Arrowhead. Nothing will phase Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. They have been here before and they won't get caught up in the moment. They even beat the Chiefs in Foxboro earlier this year. The pressure is really on the Chiefs to win this game. The Pats are also underdogs for the first time since 2014. They will use that as motivation for sure. You also have to favor Belichick over Andy Reid in any big game no matter where it is played. If any coach is going to figure out a way to frustrate and fool Pat Mahomes, you know it is going to be Belichick. The cold weather won't affect the Pats either. This sets up as a classic game where everyone doubted the Patriots and they come out and pull the upset.

A Case for the Chiefs: You have had the sense that it has been the Chiefs year in the AFC since Week 1. It has been Pat Mahomes year for sure. It is the classic passing of the torch game between Brady and Mahomes. This could be the beginning of the Mahomes era in the AFC, and what a way to kickstart that by beating the Pats at home in the AFC Championship. Andy Reid is long overdue as well. He has been a great coach in the NFL, but he has had his questionable moments in the playoffs and big games. This could be his signature moment as well. Also, the Chiefs franchise is due. They are one of the most successful franchises in the league, but don't have the playoff success to show for it. They are a great franchise from the AFL days, and were in two of the first four Super Bowls, but they haven't been back to the big game since Super Bowl IV. They haven't even hosted an AFC Championship Game until this year. Overall, they are the better team than the Pats, and once you factor in weather, homefield, crowd noise, and everything else, then all signs point to the Cheifs punching their ticket to the Super Bowl.

Prediction: KANSAS CITY (-3) over New England: The Chiefs come out fast and flying early on, grab a big lead, and never look back as their make their first Super Bowl appearance since Super Bowl IV.

Final Score: Chiefs-33 Patriots-20

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