My predictions for 2009 for the AFC South:
1) Indianapolis Colts (11-5): The Colts get the division back in 2009. I know that Tony Dungy is gone, but the Colts still have Peyton Manning. Manning will lead the Colts very deep this year. Plus, the Colts are hungry. They have lost their last two playoff openers the last two years, and everyone is talking about the Steelers and the Pats in the AFC. The Colts just reload, and their window to win is never closed with Manning.
2) Tennessee Titans (10-6): Originally, I thought that the Titans wouldn't make the playoffs this year, but after looking at it deeper, I think the Titans get in as a wild card. Jeff Fisher is a very good coach, and they were the best team in the AFC last year. They killed themselves in the playoffs against Baltimore, and I think they are going to be very good this year. I like Kerry Collins, and he has help on that offense. Chris Johnson is a gamebreaker, and they added some help to their WRs with the addition of Nate Washington. Their defense is solid with good players at every level-especially Vanden Bosch, Bulluck, and Finnegan. The Titans will be a team no one wants to see in January.
3) Houston Texans (8-8): The Texans will be picked by a lot of people to make the leap and finally make the playoffs in 2009. I don't see it. I am not jumping on the Houston bandwagon this year. I like their offense, but Matt Schaub has to stay healthy. Their defense and their toughness up front is what disturbs me. Plus, their division is very tough. Four games with the Colts and Titans is what is going to kill them. The Texans miss out on the playoffs again.
4) Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11): Which Jacksonville team will show up? The team that went 11-5 in 2007 or the team that imploded on their way to 5-11 in 2008. Which version of David Garrard will show up? The sensational 2007 version or the medicore 2008 version. This is just a weird team to figure out. They might be able to make some noise in 2009, but I just don't have enough confidence to pick them.
2) Tennessee Titans (10-6): Originally, I thought that the Titans wouldn't make the playoffs this year, but after looking at it deeper, I think the Titans get in as a wild card. Jeff Fisher is a very good coach, and they were the best team in the AFC last year. They killed themselves in the playoffs against Baltimore, and I think they are going to be very good this year. I like Kerry Collins, and he has help on that offense. Chris Johnson is a gamebreaker, and they added some help to their WRs with the addition of Nate Washington. Their defense is solid with good players at every level-especially Vanden Bosch, Bulluck, and Finnegan. The Titans will be a team no one wants to see in January.
3) Houston Texans (8-8): The Texans will be picked by a lot of people to make the leap and finally make the playoffs in 2009. I don't see it. I am not jumping on the Houston bandwagon this year. I like their offense, but Matt Schaub has to stay healthy. Their defense and their toughness up front is what disturbs me. Plus, their division is very tough. Four games with the Colts and Titans is what is going to kill them. The Texans miss out on the playoffs again.
4) Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11): Which Jacksonville team will show up? The team that went 11-5 in 2007 or the team that imploded on their way to 5-11 in 2008. Which version of David Garrard will show up? The sensational 2007 version or the medicore 2008 version. This is just a weird team to figure out. They might be able to make some noise in 2009, but I just don't have enough confidence to pick them.
-The Colts won the division at 14-2, Houston finished second at 9-7, the Titans finished third at 8-8, and Jacksonville finished last at 7-9.
-I nailed the Colts winning the division, but that might have been to easiest prediction to make of all-time.
-I went back and forth all summer on the Titans. I wasn't sure if they were going to make the playoffs. I figured that either Tennessee or Baltimore would miss the postseason in '09. I picked the Titans to make it as a wild card, but their 0-6 start derailed that plan. They finished a respectable 8-8, but too little too late.
-Many experts picked the Texans to make the playoffs, but I was right in my assumption that I wasn't buying it. I had them at 8-8 and out of the playoffs, and they finished 9-7 and out of the playoffs, so nailed that one pretty good.
-It was easy to pick Jax to finish last in this division, but they actually won 7 games, and I had them slotted for only 5.
AFC WEST
1) San Diego Chargers (12-4): The class of a weak division. The Chargers should have missed out on the playoffs last year, but they got hot at the end and won the West. San Diego should be better in 2009. Philip Rivers is a franchise QB, and LT will be very good this season. Throw in Gates, Sproles, Jackson, and Chambers, and the SD offense should put up a lot of points. Their defense obviously gets better with the return of Shawne Merriman. The Chargers have been in the playoffs in 4 of the last 5 years. They have won 3 playoff games in the last two years, but they haven't been to the Super Bowl. They need to take the next step. This could be the year they do.
2) Kansas City Chiefs (8-8): The Chiefs are done with the putrid Herm Edwards Era, and now start the Scott Pioli-Todd Haley Era. The Chiefs are a popular pick to be this year's Dolphins, especially since they added Matt Cassell. I think the Chiefs will be very improved and very well- coached this year, but they are a year away from making the playoffs. Their problem will be their weapons on offense and some defensive issues. I don't think they have enough playmakers to hurt defenses, and their front seven looks like it isn't good enough to slow down any good offensive team.
3) Oakland Raiders (6-10): The Raiders show some improvement this year by winning 6 games, but I'm not buying into the Tom Cable and JaMarcus Russell era in Oakland. I think Jeff Garcia will be starting by Week 5, but I don't think he will be able to help the Raiders into the playoffs. The Raiders are a team in disarray and they always will be as long as Al Davis is running the team.
4) Denver Broncos (5-11): Warning: This is going to be long! Now we get to my team, The 2009 Denver Broncos. What an offseason: Shanny gets fired, Bowlen hires Josh McDaniels, McD fueds with Jay Cutler, they trade Cutler to Chicago, name Kyle Orton the starter, Brandon Marshall wants a trade, they don't address their awful front seven in the offseason, and now everyone is picking Denver to win no more than 6 games max. Why did I pick Denver to go 5-11 and finish last? Well, there are a couple of reasons: 1- Reverse Psychology 2- Too much drama in the offseason 3- A rookie head coach under the most pressure ever in NFL history 4-Subtracting Jay Cutler and adding Kyle Orton 5-Their defensive front seven doesn't have a lot of talent 6-I picked them to make the playoffs last year and they were 8-5 and collapsed to finish 8-8 and I'm not doing that again. There are a lot of negatives for the Broncos going into 2009. Their are also so many questions surrounding this team. How will the team respond to McDaniels when faced with adversity? How will Kyle Orton play learining a very difficult new offense? How will the Brandon Marshall situation play out? How much will they improve at all on defense? How will adjust to Mike Nolan's new 3-4 scheme? How will Champ Bailey bounce back? How will an old secondary fare? I will give you this: The Broncos might not be as bad as everyone predicts in 2009. Kyle Orton will have some weapons on offense (Royal, Marshall, Stokely, Gaffney, Graham, Scheffler, Moreno, Hillis, and Buckhalter) and he has a very good OL to work with. McDaniels is a tremendous play caller and offensive mind, so the offense could be pretty good. Maybe their defense comes together. They really can't get worse than they were last year. Maybe guys like Ron Fields, Kenny Peterson, DJ Williams, Robert Ayers, Andra Davis, and Elvis Dumervil step up and give that front seven some reliability. The secondary with Dawkins, Champ, Andre Goodman, Renaldo Hill, and Alphonso Smith plays well and creates some turnovers. Maybe they get a break in their schedule and catch some teams at the right time, and they win a few close games they shouldn't. Who knows? That's the thing about this Bronco team. The title of their 2009 Media Guide should be: "The 2009 Denver Broncos- Who the Hell Knows?" I'm not trying to drink the kool-aid too much, but stranger things have happened. The Broncos are a true sleeper this year, but I'm not gonna jinx them. I did that last year and look what happened. I like this spot for Denver- laying around in the weeds with no one expecting anything. Maybe the worst offseason in Denver Broncos history will be replaced with one of the most satisfying and surprising season in Denver Broncos history......We'll see.
2) Kansas City Chiefs (8-8): The Chiefs are done with the putrid Herm Edwards Era, and now start the Scott Pioli-Todd Haley Era. The Chiefs are a popular pick to be this year's Dolphins, especially since they added Matt Cassell. I think the Chiefs will be very improved and very well- coached this year, but they are a year away from making the playoffs. Their problem will be their weapons on offense and some defensive issues. I don't think they have enough playmakers to hurt defenses, and their front seven looks like it isn't good enough to slow down any good offensive team.
3) Oakland Raiders (6-10): The Raiders show some improvement this year by winning 6 games, but I'm not buying into the Tom Cable and JaMarcus Russell era in Oakland. I think Jeff Garcia will be starting by Week 5, but I don't think he will be able to help the Raiders into the playoffs. The Raiders are a team in disarray and they always will be as long as Al Davis is running the team.
4) Denver Broncos (5-11): Warning: This is going to be long! Now we get to my team, The 2009 Denver Broncos. What an offseason: Shanny gets fired, Bowlen hires Josh McDaniels, McD fueds with Jay Cutler, they trade Cutler to Chicago, name Kyle Orton the starter, Brandon Marshall wants a trade, they don't address their awful front seven in the offseason, and now everyone is picking Denver to win no more than 6 games max. Why did I pick Denver to go 5-11 and finish last? Well, there are a couple of reasons: 1- Reverse Psychology 2- Too much drama in the offseason 3- A rookie head coach under the most pressure ever in NFL history 4-Subtracting Jay Cutler and adding Kyle Orton 5-Their defensive front seven doesn't have a lot of talent 6-I picked them to make the playoffs last year and they were 8-5 and collapsed to finish 8-8 and I'm not doing that again. There are a lot of negatives for the Broncos going into 2009. Their are also so many questions surrounding this team. How will the team respond to McDaniels when faced with adversity? How will Kyle Orton play learining a very difficult new offense? How will the Brandon Marshall situation play out? How much will they improve at all on defense? How will adjust to Mike Nolan's new 3-4 scheme? How will Champ Bailey bounce back? How will an old secondary fare? I will give you this: The Broncos might not be as bad as everyone predicts in 2009. Kyle Orton will have some weapons on offense (Royal, Marshall, Stokely, Gaffney, Graham, Scheffler, Moreno, Hillis, and Buckhalter) and he has a very good OL to work with. McDaniels is a tremendous play caller and offensive mind, so the offense could be pretty good. Maybe their defense comes together. They really can't get worse than they were last year. Maybe guys like Ron Fields, Kenny Peterson, DJ Williams, Robert Ayers, Andra Davis, and Elvis Dumervil step up and give that front seven some reliability. The secondary with Dawkins, Champ, Andre Goodman, Renaldo Hill, and Alphonso Smith plays well and creates some turnovers. Maybe they get a break in their schedule and catch some teams at the right time, and they win a few close games they shouldn't. Who knows? That's the thing about this Bronco team. The title of their 2009 Media Guide should be: "The 2009 Denver Broncos- Who the Hell Knows?" I'm not trying to drink the kool-aid too much, but stranger things have happened. The Broncos are a true sleeper this year, but I'm not gonna jinx them. I did that last year and look what happened. I like this spot for Denver- laying around in the weeds with no one expecting anything. Maybe the worst offseason in Denver Broncos history will be replaced with one of the most satisfying and surprising season in Denver Broncos history......We'll see.
-The Chargers won the division at 13-3, the Broncos finished second at 8-8, the Raiders finished third at 5-11, and the Chiefs finished last at 4-12.
-It was easy to pick the Chargers to win this division because they are the class of the West.
-I don't know how to pick the Broncos anymore. I didn't want to jinx them, so I picked them to go 5-11, but they started 6-0 and ended up at 8-8. Next year, I'm going to pick them at 6-10 just so I don't get my hopes up.
-I had the Chiefs at 8-8, and I thought they were going to be really improved, but they were awful throughout the season. They finished at 4-12, and they weren't even competitive in a lot of games. I missed that one badly.
-I nailed the Raiders pretty close, and they were where I expected them to be.
***My 2009 Playoff Predictions:
AFC Playoff Predictions
1) San Diego (12-4)
2) Indy (11-5)
3) New England (11-5)
4) Pittsburgh (10-6)
5)Tennessee (10-6)
6) Cincy (9-7)
1) San Diego (12-4)
2) Indy (11-5)
3) New England (11-5)
4) Pittsburgh (10-6)
5)Tennessee (10-6)
6) Cincy (9-7)
-I had 3 out of 4 division winners, and I correctly predicted 4 out of 6 playoff teams. I did well in the AFC in 2009.
Wild Card Round
3-New England over 6-Cincy (Brady and Belichick move on to face Indy)
5-Tenn over 4-Pittsburgh (Tenn upsets the defending Super Bowl Champs)
Divisional Round
1-San Diego over 5-Tenn (SD moves on to host AFC Title game)
2-Indy over 3-New England (Manning outduels Brady)
AFC Championship
1-San Diego over 2-Indy (SD makes first SB since 1994)
Wild Card Round
3-New England over 6-Cincy (Brady and Belichick move on to face Indy)
5-Tenn over 4-Pittsburgh (Tenn upsets the defending Super Bowl Champs)
Divisional Round
1-San Diego over 5-Tenn (SD moves on to host AFC Title game)
2-Indy over 3-New England (Manning outduels Brady)
AFC Championship
1-San Diego over 2-Indy (SD makes first SB since 1994)
-I would have had the correct AFC Championship matchup, but the Chargers completely choked against the Jets in the Divisional Round.
-No one really picked Indy to make it to the AFC Title Game, so I felt pretty good about Indy getting there and they did.
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